TAP GHJ CONG THirOlNS
XU THE DICH CHUYEN DAU T U
VA G 0 I Y MOT SO GIAI PHAP CHO VI^T NAM VE TIEP NHAN DONG VON FDI MCfl
SAU DAI DICH COVID -19
• DINH THE PHUC - DINH TH! THANH HAI
T 6 M TAT:
Thdi gian qua, dong von d^u tif quoc t6' da co sd bien ddng manh, chu5i gia tri toan c^u hi diJt gay, kh6 hoi phuc bdi tac dong nang ne cua dai dieh Covid-19, cung nhif nhiyng mau thuin, cSng thing thiTdng mai ng^y mot gia tang giffa c5c ni/dc Idn. Do do, bai vi^t nay se di xuat m6t s6' giSi phap cho Viet Nam ve tiep nhSn dong von FDI mdi sau dai dich Covid-19.
TH khoa: Dich chuyen d^u td, cang thang thu'dng mai, dai dich Covid-19, FDI, Vidt Nam, giii phap.
1. Xu the' dich chuydn d^u tif
Ke tiJf nam 2018, cang thdng thUdng mai My - Trung, xu hiTdng bao hp san xua't trong nifdc,...
khig'n dong von dau tif tr6n the gidi sut giam (tren 10% n3m 2018 va 2019), dong thdi cd sif dieh chuyen manh giiJa cac khu vifc va quoc gia. Trong xu the do, cac nu'dc ASEAN, trong do ed Viet Nam dang ndi len nhif la diem d6'n tiem nang, la diem de'n eho sif phan bo lai dong vo'n dau tif, dac biet la xu hifdng dieh chuyS'n dong vd'n tif Trung Quo'c.
Theo Nomura Group (2019), ke tCf dau nam 2018 de'n thang 8/2019, da cd 56 doanh nghiep quo'c te' rdi Trung Qud'c sang san xua't tai cac nifdc khac;
trong do, cd 26 doanh nghiep chon Viet Nam, 11 doanh nghiep sang Dai Loan, 11 DN sang Thai Lan, 3 DN lifa ehpn An Do,... Theo Cong ty Tif va'n dautif A.T. Kearney (2019), Trung Quoc da xuo'ng hang, tif thd 3 (nam 2017) xuong thiJ 7 (nam 2019) trong so cdc dia diemdau tif trifc dep tif nu'dc ngoai
(FDI) tot nha't the gidi (la mtfc tha'p nhat tif tnfdc de'n nay); phan anh sif suy giam sdc hS'p din cua Trung Quoc doi vdi cae nha dau tif, do chi phi nhan cong tang nhanh, tac dpng cua cang thang thifdng mai My - Trung va nam nay la dai dich Covid-19.
Ka' tif thang 8/2019 de'n nay. An D6 vk Indonesia da day manh viec thu hut cac tSp doan quo'c t6' dang co k6' hoach dich chuyen khdi Trung Qud'e. D6'n nay, da cd nhieu thong tin ve vi$e cdc nha dau tif cd ke' hoach djch chuyen dau tif tdi An Dp va cac nifdc khu vife Dong Nam A, trong dd cd Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, qua tnnh dieh chuyen se khdng ngay lap tdc, ma thu'dng co Id trinh khodng 2 de'n 5 nam, do cac chudi cung dug loan cau da difdc hoan thien nen khdng th^ nhanh iidng chuyen dieh. Ngoai ra, sif dich chuyen n: mg tinh da dang hda thi tnfdng, chi chuyei rndt phan chudi cung u'ng chd' khdng phai ,j (Q^^, ^ khdi Trung Qud'c. Do day van Iii un ^i.., „ ^5 quy
KINHTE
md ra't Idn, vSn Ik mdt diim d€'n quan trpng bdi Trung Quoc cd cd sd ha tang, logistics, cdng nghidp phu trd tot, dpi ngu cdng nhan lanh nghe, cung nhif he sinh thai cung u'ng cdng nghe cao, dap u'ng cae tidu chuan eha't lu'cfng ciia My, chau Au,... va quy md sdn xua't Idn.
Dd'i vdi Viet Nam, trong ndm 2019, von FDI dangky tifTrung Quo'c lang 17% so vdi nam tnfdc, eao hdn so vdi mdc tang chung la 7,2%, va la miJc tang eao nha't trong so cdc dd'i tac dau tif Idn cua Viet Nam (Hong Kong tang 9,1%, Singapore tang 6,4%, Han Qud'e tang 3,7%, Nhat Ban tang 2,12%). Trong 5 thdng d^u nam 2020, mot so' tap doan da lenke'hoachdichchuyendau tif dd'n Vidt Nam. Cu the, theo Nikkei, Google cd kd'hoach san xuat smartphone gid re (Pixel 4a) tai Viet Nam, trong khi Microsoft dd dinh sdn xuat notebook va mdy tinh de ban trong quy II nam 2020, cdn Apple se sdn xud't tai nghe khong ddy (AirPods) tai Vidt Nam thay vi Trung Qud'e (3-4 trieu ddn vi, tifdng difdng 30% lu'dng sdn pham AirPods).
Hang trd ehcfi dien tu" Nintendo cung da chuyen mdt phin san xud't mdy ehdi game Switch Lite sang Viet Nam,... (Xem Hinh)
Trddc dai dich Covid-19, vo'n FDI dau tif vao Vidt Nam chu yd'u tap trung vao 3 ITnh vdc chinh, dd la: cdng nghiep che'bid'n -che'tao, kinh doanh bat ddng san va ban buon - ban le - sda chffa d td, md td, xe mdy (chid'm 81% tong vd'n dangky ndm 2019).
Tff khi dai dich Covid-19 xdy ra, cde nha dau tif nffdc ngoai da vd dang dieh chuyen dau tff, chu
ye'u trong cae linh vffc: (i) cdng nghe thdng tin, cdng nghe cao (nhff Sam- sung, Apple,...); (ii) thie't bi dien tffva phu kien (Panasonic.,.); (iii) logistics, thffdng mai dien tu" (Ahbaba...); (iv) hang tieu diing, ban le (Zara, H&M)...
2. Nguydn nh3n dich chuyen dong vd'n FDI Nguon vd'n FDI dich chuyen manh tff Trung Qud'c va viing lanh thd sang cac nu'dc ehdu A, khu vffc ASEAN, trong do cd Vidt Nam chu yd'u do 5 nguyen nhan chinh sau ddy.
Thd nhd't, ne tranh rui ro chid'n tranh thffdng mai: Cdng thang thffdng mai My - Trung leo thang khid'n cdc nha dau tff cd xu hffdng tim kie'm mdt dia cbl dau tff san xuat (dinh hffdng xua't khau) dn dinh hdn, it rdi ro hdn, dong thdi cd the tranh dffde viec ap thud' cao cua My.
Thd hai, tid'p tuc da dang hda chudi san xua't (Chid'n Iffdc "Trung Qud'e + 1"): Chie'n Iffdc "Tning Qud'e + 1" ra ddi hdn 10 nam qua do Trung Qud'e dang md't dan nhffng Idi the' thu hut FDI nhuf ehi phi nhan cdng tang, cdc chinh sach khuyd'n khich ddu tff dan bi xda bo,... Dong thdi, ede nffdc mudn gidm sff phu thupc vao Trung Quoc; do dd mud^n tim kie'm va dich chuyen mot phan sang dia diem dau tff mdi, trong khi van giff va tan dung cac ed sd da dau tff tai Trung Qud'c, cung nhff giam thieu tdc dpng bdi nhffng cu sdc khi xay ra dfft gay I khau/mdt xieh trong chuBi.
Thd ba, tan dung cd hoi mdi tff cde thi trffdng tiem nang (An Dp, Indonesia, Vidt Nam, Philippines,...): Trong sd eac nffdc hffdng ldi tff sff dich chuydn dau tff, Viet Nam dffde ddnh gia la mot
Hinh: FDI dang ky vao ViSt Nam, 2016-2019
Dan vi tinh: ty USD
• 2016 • 2 0 1 7 • 2 0 1 8 • 2 0 1 9
^ 15.52
mi ••
HarClu6c NhStBSn Singapore DaiLoan H6r|K6ne TruneQu6c My Nguon: Cue Dau tu nUdc ngoai - Bo Ke lioach va Dau tu
So 16-Thang 7/2020 71
TAPCHJCdNGTHirifNG
diem sang ve thu hut dau tff do mdi trffdng kinh doanh ngay cang dffde cai thien, thi dnfdng ndi dia Idn, mffc sdng ngffdi dan ngay cang tang; ldi the' tffdng dong vdi Trung Qudc ve van hda, ehinh tri, ve vi tri dia ly, diem giup tie't giam td'i da chi phi dich chuyen san xua't va vdn duy tri md'i hdn he chat che vdi cde cd sd san xua't hidn ed tai Trung Qud'c; sff hdi nhap qudc te sau rdng cua Viet Nam ve kinh te, thffdng mai, dd'i ngoai, van hda, gido due, ke'hoach dau tff,...
Thii tu, dai dich Covid-19 thiic day viec sap xe'p lai chudi san xua't: Dich Covid-19 lam dfft gay chudi san xud't, cung ffng toan cau, dong thdi cho tha'y sff phu thudc Idn eua ehudi san xua't, cung ffng toan cau vao Trung Qudc. Do do, eac tap doan da qud'c gia mud'n dich chuyen dau tff sang eac nffdc chau A khac nhff Indonesia, Malaysia, An Dd, Viet Nam, Thdi Lan, Philippines,... Xu the' dich chuyen ddng vd'n FDI da va dang dien ra tff trffdc khi ed dai dieh Covid-19; tuy nhien, dich Covid-19 la chat xuc tdc khid'n qua trinh dich chuye'n nay dien ra nhanh hdn, quyd't liet hdn.
Thd ndm, ehinh phu mdt so' nffdc nhff: My, Nhat Ban,... khuyd'n khich chuyen dich chudi cung ffng trong thdng 4/2020. Nhat Ban da danh 2,2 ty USD trong gdi cffu trd kinh te gan 1.000 ty USD de giiip cdc nha san xud't Nhat Ban chuyen chudi san xua't ra khdi Trung Qud'c. Dong thdi nffdc nay khdi dpng mdt chffdng trinh trd ca'p tri gid 23,5 ty Yen (220 trieu USD), nham hd trd cdc cdng ty da dang hda chudi cung ffng tai cac nffdc ASEAN. Dd'i vdi My, ngay 14/5/2020. Tong thd'ng My D.Trump da ky sac lenh nhdm hd trd cac cong ty My dich chuyen san xua't ra khoi Trung Quo'c. Cdc nhd Idp phdp cua My cung dang soan thao dff thao luat nham lam giam sff phu thupc eua My vao Trung Qud'e. trong dd bao gom y tffdng thdnh lap mot quy 25 ty USD de dau tff vdo cac cdng ty mudn cai td md'i quan he vdi Trung Qud'c.
3. Nhffng mong mudn cua nha dSu tff nffdc ngoai
Da so' nhd dau tff nffdc ngoai cd^ mong mud'n mot sd' yd'u to' quan trpng sau: (I) On dinh chinh tri. mdi trffdng phdp ly va kinh le' vT md; (2| Cd che, chinh sdch (ve da't dai. thud', lao ddng, dieu hanh kinh te'vTnid nhffty gia. Idi suat).... can dam
bao tinh nhat quan, it thay ddi, cd th. bao dffde;
(3) Thong tin cdng khai, minh bach, de tie'p can, dd tra cffu; (4) Thu tuc hanh chinh ddu gian, gpn nhe, ra quye't dinh nhanh chdng; (5) Cd sd ha ting ddng bo (khu cdng nghiep, didn, nffdc, giao thdng van tai, thdng dn, logistics...); (5) Ngudn nhan lffc, dac bidt la nhdn lffc cha't Iffdng cao, cdng nhan cd tay nghe; (6) Cdng nghidp hd trd, phu trd ndi dia phat trien.
4. Hanh d$ng thu hut sff dich chuydn vo'n cua cac nffdc
Qua nghien cffu eac cong bd' chinh sach thu hut FDI gan ddy cua mdt so' nffdc trong khu vffc cho tha'y, chinh phu cdc nffdc dang chu ye'u dung 5 cdng eu nhdm thu hut sff dich chuyen vd'n, gdm: (i) thue' (nhff Indonesia ed ke' hoach giam thud'TNDN tff25% vemffc23%nam202I; AnDpmidnthue' tff 4-10 nam eho cdc dff an dau tff trong 1 so' ITnh vffc du tidn); (ii) dd't dai (Indonesia cam kd't danh 400 hecta cho cdc nha dau tff; An Dp cam ke't danh ra quy da't rpng 461 hecia nhdm thu hut DN rdi khoi Trung Qudc va da ehpn ra 10 nganh chu chd't de tap trung thiie day san xua't vd chi thi dai sff quan An Dp d eac mfdc tid'p can nhffng cdng ty dang tim ndi dau tff,.); (iii) cam kd't giffa cac nha lanh dao cap cao ve cai thien mdi trffdng d£u tff- kmh doanh (nhu Indonesia); (iv) cung cap gdi hd trp dao tao cdng nhan lanh nghe (Thdi Lan); va (v) cd bidn phap tdng rao can nhdm ngan chan tinh trang thau tdm trong 1 so' ITnh vffc (My, Nhat Ban, EU, Anh, Uc,..).
5. G^i y mOt so'giai phap
Vide dich chuye'n dau tu" da vd dang didn ra.
Vidt Nam difdc danh gid la mdt trong nhffng nffdc ha'p ddn thu hut sff dieh chuyen. Tuy nhien, de tao ldi the vd canh tranh vdi cdc mfdc trong khu vffc n-ong thu hiit vd'n FDI nay, Viet Nam can thife hien 8 gidi phap ngan han vd 6 giai phap trung va dai han. Cu the nhff sau:
a. Vi ngdn han {trong ndm 2020)
(i) Tid'p tuc kiem soat tot dich bdnh, xdy dffng kich bdn cd Idn sdng Covid-19 thff hai;
(ii) Sdm xay dffng va cong bo chinh sach thu hut dich chuyen dong v^n dau tff; trong do. can neu rd ITnh Vffc ffu tien. dia phffdng ffu tidn (gdn vdi quy hoach tdng the, tranh canh tranh khong lanh manh giffa cdc dia phifdng);
KINH IE
(iii) Ra sodt toan bp cac khu cdng nghidp (KCN): cde KCN eIn ffu tidn md rong/ xdy mdi, cdc KCN can thu hep, thu lai; cdng bd'danh sach cae KCN cd quy da't sach, cd sd ha t^ng sdn sang...;
(iv) Ra soat, cap nhat, di^u chinh phu hdp phdn cap phd duydt d^u tff, dnh gpn qui trinh, thu tuc ve dIu tff nffdc ngoai, gan vdi day manh cai each thu tuc hanh chinh mdt each thffe ch^t; cong bd' qui dinh, qui trinh mdt cdch cdng khai, minh bach;
(v) Da'y nhanh tie'n do hoan thidn chie^n Iffpc, hanh lang phap ly eho phdt trie'n kinh te so, md hinh kinh doanh mdi gdn vdi cdng nghd sd' (ITnh vffc ma nha dau tff nffdc ngoai rd't quan tam);
(vi) Cd chinh sdch, gdi ho trd dao tao nhan lffc cd tay nghi (ngudn tdi trd tff ca Trung ffdng va dia phffdng);
(vii) Khan trifdng cd bidn phdp ngdn ngffa hinh thffe thdu tdm, dIu tff chui/nup bdng (gan vdi yeu cau an ninh, quo'c phdng va ba't dpng san);
(viii) Tang cffdng gap gd trffc tie'p giffa Lanh dao Chinh phu, bd ngdnh, dia phffdng vdi cac nha dau tff Idn de' nam ro nhu cau, thdo gd vffdng mac nhanh chdng; sdm van hanh hieu qua To cdng tdc ddc biet.
b. vi trung vd ddi han
(i) Duy tri sff on dinh mdi trffdng vT mo, nang cao nang Iffc chd'ng chiu cua nen kinh td' dd'i vdi cac cu sd'c tff ben ngoai (ndng cao nang life canh tranh cua quo'c gia va DN, phat trid'n thi trffdng trong nffdc; tang dff trff ngoai bd'i, phdt tnen he thdng tai chinh, kid'm scat nd xd'u,...);
(ii) Ludn dam bao tinh nha't qudn, tinh dn dinh vd tinh phu hdp cua ede ed ehe', chinh sdch, nhd't Id cac chinh sdch ve da't dai, thue', lao dpng, dieu hdnh kinh te vi md (ty gia, lai sua't),.. de cac nha dau tif dau tif nffdc ngoai ydn tdm xdy dffng ke' hoach dau tff dai ban tai Viet Nam;
(iii) Co chien Iffdc dai han ve cai thien manh me, thffe chat mdi tnfdng dau tif - kinh doanh, tff dd cd Id trinh thffe hidn tffng ndm (thay vi lam tffng nam nhff hien nay); tie'p tuc day manh cai thien manh me, thffe cha't mdi trffdng dau tff - kinh doanh; dam bao yeu to'cdng khai, minh bach; thu tuc hanh chinh can dUdc tie'p tuc ddn gian hda, thuan tien, hidu qua;
(iv) D^y manh dIu tff, ndng cfi'p ed sd ha tang ddng bd (KCN, didn, nffdc, ha t^ng giao thdng van tai, thdng tin, logistics, dieh vu di kem KCN,...) va quye't tdm ndng cao chd't Iffdng ngudn nhdn life theo ddnh gia va khuye'n nghi cua Diln dan Kinh te' the' gidi (WEF) ndm 2019;
(v) Da'y manh tai cd ca'u nen kinh td', thu hiit dau tu manh me hdn vdo ed 3 ITnh vffc (cdng nghiep, ndng nghiep va dich vu); thue dd^y phdt trid'n nhanh hdn cdng nghiep hd trd, phuc vu nha dau tff, doanh nghiep boat dpng theo chudi trong va ngoai nifdc;
(vi) Thffe hidn hieu qua Nghi quye't so' 58/NQ- CP cua Chinh phu ve Chifdng trinh hanh dpng thffe hien Nghi quyet sd 50-NQ/rW ngay 20/8/2019 cua Bd Chinh tri ve dinh hffdng hoan thien the' che', chinh sdch, nang cao cha't Iffdng, hidu qua hdp tac dau tff nffdc ngoai den nam 2030 •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. B6 Chinh tri (2019), Nghi quyet sd50/NQ-TLf ngdy 20/8/2019, ve dinh hudng hodn thien the che. chinh sdch, ndng cao chdt Iuang, hieu qud hop lac ddu tU nUdc ngodi den ndm 2030.
2. Chinh phii (2019), Nghj quyS't so 58/NQ-CP. ngdy 20 thdng 8 nam 2019, ve Chuang tnnh hdnh dong thuc hiin Nghj quyet 50 ciia Bd Chinh tri
3. Tdng cue Thdng ke (2019), Nien gidm thd'ng ke ndm 2016, 2017. 2018. 2019. NXB Tho'ng ke, Ha Noi.
4. Tdng cue Thd'ng kd (2019), Bdo cdo tinh hinh kinh te - xd hoi cdc thdng, giai dogn 2017-2019.
5. KPMG (2020), The Future for MNCs in China - A KPMG Study. China.
6. A.T. Kearney, AnnuallnvestmentReports. 2017. 2018. 2019.
1. Odgers Berndtson (2020), Whit paper - The Chalenge for Multinationals in China, Shanghai, China.
So 16-Thang 7/2020 73
TAP CHl CONG mifdNG
8. Worid Bank Group (2020). The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A t n Hf'-''' " " n o . 9. Worid Economic Forum (2019), Global Competitive Report 2019
10 CNBC (2019) Morthanh 50 companies reportedly pull producnon out of China due to irade war.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/more-than-50-companies-reportedly-pull-productlon-out-of-ch,na-due-to-lrade- war html
11. Caixin (2020). Indepdi: Despite Attempts to ure Them Away, Multinationals https:/Mww.calxinglobal.com/
2020-05-21/in-depth-despite-attempts-to-lure-them-away-multinalionals-arent-leavlng-chlna-10ISS71l8.html 12. TrSn Tho Dat (2020). Ca'u tnic va dac tnmg kmh te ViSt Nam hien nay kha MOng dong vdi mot sS mldc tritdc theft ky bijng nd tang tnr6ng, cafef.vn.
13. Cue Dau tunudc ngoai - Bo Ke' hoach vj Dau M; https://dautunuocngoai.gov.vn/chuyenmuc/n2/So-lieii- FDI-hang-thang
Ngay nhan bai: 7/6/2020
Ngay phan bi0n danh gia va sii'a chi7a: 17/6/2020 Ngay cha'p nh$n dang bai: 27/6/2020
Thdng tin tac gid:
1. TS. DINH THE PHUC Vi^n Dao tao va Nghien crfu BIDV 2. TS. Dinh Thj Thanh Hai TrUoTng D^i ht?c Cong nghidp Ha NOi
THE INVESTMENT SfflFTS AND SOME SOLUTIONS TO VIETNAM FOR RECEIVING NEW FDI INFLOWS
AFTER THE COVlD-19 PANDEMIC
• Ph.D DINH THE PHUC BIDV Training a n d Research Institute
• Ph.D DINH THI THANH HAI Hanoi University of Industry
ABSTRACT:
The Covid-19 pandemic has hit the global economy, countries and the international investment flows hard. The pandemic significantly disrupts global value chains ,ind also causes trade tensions among major economies. This paper proposes some so ms to Vietnam for receiving new foreign direct investment inflows after the Covid-19 pa r
Keywords: Investment shift, trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic. FD' ,3^1^
solutions
