Dif BAO GIA VANG THE Gldl THANG 10/2010

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PHAN TICH & DLf BAO K I N H TE

Dif BAO GIA VANG THE Gldl THANG 10/2010

NGUYEN TH! BfCH HOA

Chi nhanh tgi Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh

Trung tam Thong fin va Du bdo kinh te - xd hdi qud'c gia

1. Nhin lai thj trfldng vang thang 8 va thang 9

Trong hai thdng 8, 9/2010, thj trfldng vang the gidi cd nhieu bien dpng manh, gay ra nhieu bat ngd eho cdc nha dau tfl. Tfnh tfl dau thdng 8 tdi nay, gid vang the gidi da tang hdn 100 USD/ounce.

Dang chu y, trong thdi gian gan day, gid vang lien tue tang manh, lien tiep phd vd cdc mdc ky luc da dfldc thiet lap va hien dang duy tri a mflc 1.300 USD/ounce. Cd the thd'y, cdc nhan td sau da tdc ddng den gia vang thdi gian vfla qua:

- Nen kinh te M y tiep tuc chju dnh hfldng tieu cflc cua cudc khung hodng tdi chfnh vd suy thodi kinh te todn cau: trien vpng cua nen kinh te kem khdi sac hdn so vdi dfl bdo; sd ngan hdng "cd van de" tiep tuc tang, len tdi con sd 829; thj trfldng Phd Udn khep lai thdng 8 toi te nhd't ke tfl ndm 2001 do cdc quan chflc ngdy cdng lo ngai ve nen kinh te.

- Dong USD dang trong xu hfldng ma't gid so vdi eac ngoai te manh khac, bat nguon tfl viec hoat dpng kinh te suy yeu va chdm chap, that nghiep lien tuc tang cao, thj trfldng nhd d suy yeu, chfnh sach khong dam bdo lien quan den cudc bau cfl Qudc hpi cua My. De

in August and September 2010, world gold prices underwent major fluctuations, that surprised investors. In recent days, world gold price sharply increased, continuously broke previous records and stood around

1,300 USD per oz. The following factors were attributed to recent gold price fluctuations: slow recovery of US economy; the depreciations of USD; gold speculation of institutions; interests of investors in gold as an attractive investment channel...

According to gold experts, world gold price in October is expected to be much affected by pace of US recovery and USD fluctuations. Gold market will continue to witness unpredictable movements and is it not excluded that world price would hit 1,330 USD per oz. However, using technical analyses through analyzing indicators and Elliot waves, world gold price is forecasted to suffer a reverse. Therefore, investors are rec- ommended to be cautious in their transactions, especially when world gold prices increase to 1,326 - 1,355 USD per oz. in domestic market, gold price is expected to fluctuate along with the world gold changes.

bao ve tai sdn dfldc djnh gia bang dong USD dang tut ddc tren thi trfldng, cdc nha dau tfl da mua vang de dau tfl thay the cho USD. Ben canh do, nhflng tuyen bd cua chu tich Cue Dfl trfl lien bang My (FED) ve nhflng bien phdp ndi long tien te nham hdi phuc kinh te va thue day viee lam da lam da'y len mdi lo ngai tiem a'n lam phdt trong tfldng lai, theo do da kfch thfch gid vang tiep tuc da tang khd ben vflng.

- Ben canh yeu td chfnh sdch, yeu to' dau cd td chflc cung dfla vang len mflc cao nhfl hien nay. Nghien cflu cua Commerzbank cho thay, cdc nha tao lap thj trfldng da gia tang cdc trang thai mua. Quy dau tfl vang SPDR vdn mua vdo mgt Ifldng ldn vang khi dfl trfl vang cua hp d mflc xa'p xl 1.300 tan, mpt mflc cao ky luc. Quy dau tfl Idn nha't the gidi Gold Trust ngdy giao djch cudi thdng 8 da mua vao 3.952 ta'n vang.

- Cdc nhd dau tfl quan tam nhieu tdi hang hod, dac biet la vang.

2, Danh gia nhCfng yeu td tac dpng den thj trfldng vang thdi gian tdi Nhieu chuyen gia cho rang gid vang the gidi trong thdi gian tdi se chju anh hfldng Idn tfl sfl phuc hoi cua nen kinh te My va xu hfldng bien dpng eua USD. Tuy nhien, trien vpng cija kinh te My chfla that sfl ro rang, ben canh nhflng diem sdng, vdn cdn ton tai nhieu van de dang lo ngai, eu the la:

- Nen kinh te eo xu hfldng tang trfldng cham lai va co sfl be tac trong chfnh sdch lam dd'y len mdi lo ngai My ed the dang dan chim vao sfltri

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THONG TIN & DLI BAO KINH TE - XA HOi So 57 (9.2010)

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tre, gidng nhfl Nhat Bdn trong giai doan dfldc gpi la "Thap ky mat mat"

trong nhflng nam 90. Nhflng dd'u hieu cho xu the nay la: doanh sd nha da't di xudng, thj trfldng viec lam dm dam, tang trfldng GDP chdm dan (con 1,6% trong quy 11/2010), yeu td gidm phdt xuat hien, cupc khung hodng gid nhd da't tiep tuc tac dpng xau den dong chay ve vdn trong nen kinh te... Ben canh do, tinh hinh that nghiep tiep tuc Id vd'n de ddng lo ngai. Trong thdng 7/2010, ty le that nghiep chfnh thfle tiep tuc duy tri d mflc cao 9,5% va nhin vdo sfl gia tang sd ddn xin trd cap that nghiep gan day, thi tinh trang that nghiep co the con toi te hdn trong nhflng thang tdi. Trong hdn 6 thdng nay, cd khodng 45% ngddi that nghiep khong kiem dfldc viec lam - day la ty le cao nhd't ke tfl nhflng nam 1930.

- Tuy nhien, ben canh nhflng dfl bdo dm dam, nhieu ITnh vfle cua nen kinh te My dang eo nhieu tin tdt:

+ Trong iTnh vfle nong nghiep, theo New York Times, trong nam tai khoa ket thue ngay 30/09/2010, nong dan My xua't kha'u dfldc khodng 107,5 ty USD sdn pha'm nong nghiep.

+ Trong thdi gian qua, hoat dpng mua bdn & sdp nhap (M&A) tren the gidi phdt trien manh vdi tdng gid trj cdc thfldng vu len tdi 286 ty USD, mflc cao nha't tfnh tfl thang 7/2008, trong do nfldc My ndi len nhfl mpt die'm sang du kinh te phuc hdi cham. Cac chuyen gia ngdn hang dfla ra dfl bdo lac quan ve sd Ifldng ede vu M & A se tiep tue tang trong thdi gian tdi.

+ Vfldt qua giai doan khung hodng, ngdnh 6 to My da hoi sinh va dang tien nhflng bflde ddi ve doanh thu va ldi nhuan, cu the la cdc hang xe Ford, General Motors vd Chrysler.

-I- LTnh vfle sdn xua't tai M y tang trfldng nhanh hdn dfl bao bdi cdc nha mdy tuye'n dung them lao ddng, md rpng sdn xua't de dap flng nhu cau tfl cdc thj trfldng nfldc ngodi. Dieu nay da giup kinh te My thoat ra khdi suy thoai.

Tren cd s6 nhflng nhdn dinh tren, nhieu chuyen gia cho rang, gid vang thdi gian tdi se tiep tuc ed nhflng dien bien bd't ngd vd khong loai trfl trfldng hdp gid vang se tang len moc 1.330 USD/ounce.

3. Dfl bao gia vang thang 10/2010 su" dung phan tich ky thuat va kien nghj chie'n Ifldc giao djch

Nhin lai dien bien gia vang thdng 8, ta thd'y, gia vdng the gidi thdng 8 md eda d mflc 1.180,97 USD/ounce, dat mflc t h a p nha't tai 1.174,22 USD/ounce, sau dd khong ngflng tang len va dong cfla d mflc 1.246,95 USD/ounce, the hien tren bieu do la mot "cay nen"

tdng vdi khdi Ifldng giao dich gan bang khdi Ifldng giao dich trong thdng 7. Mflc tang trong thdng 8 trdi ngflde han vdi mflc gidm trong thdng 7 da cho thd'y Iflc cau dang chiem flu the (Bieu do thang).

Trong ede tuan dau thdng 9, gia vdng tiep tuc cung cd da tang. Gid vdng sau khi gap ngfldng h6 trd tai 1.236,40 USD/ounce dd tdng bat trd lai va tfeh luy (sideway) trong vung gid 1.241 -1.250 USD/ourice, ngdy 14/9/2010 da pha vd mflc ky luc cu 1.265 USD/ounce va gan day duy tri d mflc cao xa'p xl 1.300 USD/ounce. Dieu nay cho thd'y nhieu khd ndng gid vang se tiep tuc chinh phuc nhflng dinh cao mdi, co the lap dinh trong vung gia 1.326-1.352 USD/ounce.

Sau do se co mpt ddt gidm gid manh, trfldc het ve lai vung gia 1.238-1.248 USD/ounce.

So 57 (9.2010) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HOI

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PHAN TICH 8C D J BAO K I N H T E

Bieu do phan tich ky thuat dfl bao gia vang theo thang

Linda 1267.31

'^J^}^^^''^''^'^^ B^^ Take profit

[o^ji^tT^^^'^''^'^^

/"^^g^

iqo.p. M1.41

Gold Monthly 15-9-2010

D y 6ao gia vang thing 10

Trong thdng 10, dfl bdo gid vdng se gidm sau. Chi bdo Stochastic (chi sd cdn bdn nhdn biet khuynh hfldng vd sfl ddo chieu cua thj trfldng) tai bie'u dd tuan dang nam tren vung qua mua d mflc 80 (overbought) vd dfldng Stochastic nhanh (fast stochastic) da cat xudng dfldng Stochastic chdm (low stochastic) cho thd'y sflc mua dang suy yeu dan, tuy nhien, sfl ddo chieu gidm gid se chi d i i n ra manh hdn khi chi bdo nay cat nhau tren mflc 80 vd hfldng xudng.

Cong cu chi bao M A C D cho thd'y dd'u hieu phdn ky gidm gid xua't hien khd rd khi gid dang di chuye'n eao dan ma dfldng MACD dang thap dan, gid cang cao, Iflc mua cang gidm va sfl gidm gid manh se rd net hdn khi phd vd cdc mflc hd trd cua dfldng xu the (trenline) tuan. Dong thdi, neu gid vang tiep can nhflng khong try dfldc lau tai cdc mflc cao 1.326-1.330-1.355 USD/ounce rd't d i tao ra sfl ddo chieu lao ddc. Dieu nay co the se xdy ra trong thdng 10 hay cham nha't la thdng 11 t d i , dfla gid vang quay trd lai vung gid 1.184-1.149 USD/ounce trfldc khi tang trd lai.

Bieu do phan tich ky thuat dfl bao gia vang theo tuan

2SKr:100(, ISOcIlOoe 4F«!bMX>7 17 May 2007 165^2007 6JjnM»8 27 Api M»S 17 Aug 200B 7 D K 2 0 0 8 »rfl*rKI09 ISluIMM 8 HOY M W 26 P«b MIP » J u " "HO _ _ ^ U50CHF,H4 I eURUSDJ^l I GePUSo'.H^ I LrS0Fr,H4 | Coffet;.Oalr I GCg.D.D3ily | GOUJ.Monthiy | GOU3>1onlhly | GOLO.Wcridv | GODfialY I GOID.H-! j GOLO,H4 [ GOLi?.H4 j QCHD.D^ [ GOLD^onWy | GOU3J>aJ, | G O L O , o r T "

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THONG TIN S. DLf BAD KINH TE - XA HQl So 57 (9.2010)

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V e c h i e n ludc d a u t f l , n h a d a u t f l trung han co the mua trong k h o d n g 1 . 2 4 7 - 1 . 2 5 7 U S D / o u n c e , cat 16 khi gid v d n g rdi x u d n g dfldi 1.230 U S D / o u n c e , chdt ldi d mflc t f l 1 . 2 9 2 - 1 . 3 1 8 U S D / o u n c e .

T r o n g t h d i gian t d i , n h d d a u t f l c d t h e c h d t het t r a n g t h d i mua k h i v a n g t i e n v d o v u n g gid 1 . 3 1 8 - 1 . 3 2 8 USD/ounce v d co the flu t i e n b a n ra k h i gid x u d n g dfldi 1 . 3 3 0 - 1 . 3 6 0 U S D / o u n c e (cat Id t r a n g t h d i b a n khi gid v a n g vfldt t r e n 1.360 U S D / o u n c e ) , c h d t Idi 1 . 2 4 8 - 1 . 1 8 4 - 1 . 1 4 9 U S D / o u n c e .

Theo p h a n tfeh sdng E l l i o t t , rat co khd n a n g v u n g gid 1 . 3 2 6 - 1 . 3 5 5 U S D / o u n c e se la d i n h song 5 cua eon song tuan Idn nhd't, t h e o do td't ed c a c giao d j e h mua hay b a n (nha't la t r a n g t h d i mua) t r o n g t h d i d i e m nao c h a n g nfla d e u c a n cd sfl d e p h o n g rui ro va bdo toan v d n b a n g n h f l n g l e n h c h d t Idi h a y eat 16 t f l d p n g (ddc biet lenh cat 16 t f l d p n g ludn dfldc coi Id p h f l d n g p h d p g i d m t h i e u rui ro h i e u q u d nha't).

Tac dpng den gia vang trong nfldc: G i d v a n g V i e t N a m c u n g se c d n h f l n g b i e n d p n g t a n g , g i a m c u n g n h i p vdi t i n h h i n h b i e n d p n g eua gia v a n g the g i d i , tuy n h i e n chfla lien t h d n g h o a n todn v d i gid v a n g the gidi do V i e t N a m v d n q u d n ly n h a p k h a u v a n g b a n g h a n n g a c h . D

THI D U A VIET TIEP T R U Y E N T H O N G V E V A N G C U A N G A N H KE H O A C H , D A U T l / V A T H O N G KE \

Trong khong khi sol ndi c u a c d nUdc ky ni^m 65 nam c d c h mgng thdng Tdm va Qudc khdnh 2/9,1000 nam Thang I Long - Hd Ngi, Ky ni$m 65 nam ngay thanh lgp nganh Ke hogch va Dau tU, sdng ngay 20/9, Bp Ke hogch v d Ddu ' t u da iong trgng td chflc Dgi hoi thi dua y e u nUdc nganh Ke hogch, Ddu tU vd Thong ke ian thd il (2006-2010).

Tham dfl Dgi hgi co dong chf TrUOng Ta'n Sang, Uy vien Bg Chfnh tri, Thudng trflc Ban Bf thU, dong chf Vo Hdng . Phuc, Uy vien Bon chd'p hdnh Trung Udng Ddng, Bo trUdng Bg Ke hogch vd Ddu tU, Chu tich hgi dong thi dua khen | thudng Bg Ke hogch va Ddu tU, dong chf Bui Quong Vinh, Uy vien Ban chd'p hdnh Trung Udng Ddng, Thfl trUdng Bg | Ke hogch vd Ddu tfl, dgi dien c u a c d c ddn vi thupc Bg, Tdng cue Tho'ng ke, c d c c d nhdn xudt sdc, tieu bieu cho I phong trdo thi dua y e u nUdc c u a todn ngdnh Ke hogch, Ddu t u vd Thong ke vd dong d d o phong vien b d o , ddi ' trong vd ngodi ngdnh.

Theo Bdo c d o tdng ket tgi Dgi hpi thi dua y e u nUdc ngdnh Ke hogch, Ddu tU vd Thdng ke, trong 5 ndm gua (2006 . - 2010), cong t d c thi duo y e u nUdc c u a Bp Ke hogch vd Ddu tU d d dgt dUdc nhQng ket gud d d n g t f l hdo vdi 05 c d | nhdn dUdc tgng thudng Hudn chUdng Hd Chi Minh; 50 t g p the, c d nhdn dUgc tgng thudng Hudn chUdng Dgc lgp; I 390 tgp the, c d nhdn dUdc tgng thudng Hudn chUdng Lao dgng; 275 t g p the, c d nhdn dUdc tgng bang khen c u a I Thu tudng Chfnh phu; 25 c d nhdn d g t danh hi#u chien sy thi dua todn gudc; hdng ngdn chien sy thi d u a c d p Bg, '

c d p tTnh, c d sd vd rd't nhieu c d c t d p the, c d nhdn dUdc tgng bdng khen c u a Bg, ngdnh vd dia phUdng. ' Nhdn thfle dung tdm guan trgng c u a cdng t d c thi dua khen thudng, trong nhQng ndm q u a , Bg Ke hogch vd ,

Ddu t u ludn de ra muc tieu thi dua sdt vdi y e u c d u , nhi#m vu chfnh tri c u a Ngdnh, phdt dpng c d c phong trdo thi g

dua, ban hdnh c d c vdn bdn chi d g o , t d chQc, thfle hien cho c d c ddn vi trong todn Ngdnh. 8 Trong thdi gian tdi, muc tieu thi dua c u a Ngdnh Id: tiep tuc dgng vien sQc mgnh dodn ket, y thQc t f l Iflc, tQ I

cQdng, ndng cao ky cuong, ky ludt, tgo ddng Iflc mgnh me, phd'n d d u thfle hi^n c d hi^u g u d c d c gidi phdp dn ' dinh kinh te vT mo, ndng cao ndng Iflc, hieu Iflc gudn ly nhd nude, d d y mgnh cdi c d c h hdnh chfnh, phdng, chdng ;

tham nhung, thfle hdnh tiet kiem, chdng Idng phf. . Phdt bleu y kien chf d g o tgi Dgi hgi, ddng chf TrUdng Tdn Sang ghi nhdn vd bieu dUOng nhQng thdnh tfeh md s

cdn bo, nhdn vien Bg Ke hogch vd Ddu tQ d d dgt dQdc vd nhdn mgnh, de tgo sfl chuyen bien mgnh me, ndng c a o I hdn nQa chd't IQdng, higu gud phong trdo thi duo y e u nude c u a Bg, c d c c d p uy vd thu trUdng c d guan, ddn vi phdi ' guan tdm Idnh d g o , chi d g o cdng t d c thi dua vd gUOng mdu di d d u trong phong trdo thi dua; gudn triet Idi d g y cua Chu tich Hd Chf Minh vd thi dua dl gudc; c d c chT thi, ket lugn c u a Bd Chfnh tri. Ban Bf thQ, c d c vdn b d n phdp ludt cua Nhd nUdc ve cong tdc thi duo; Idm cho phong trdo thi dua that sfl trd thdnh y thfle chinh tri, dgng Iflc hdnh dgng c u a mdl ddn vi vd tQng c d n b g , cong chQc; tiep tuc ddi mdl ngl dung, hinh thQc thi dua - khen thQdng phu hdp vdi d g c diem, tfnh chdt cong viec, nhiem vu...

Dgi hgi cung d d bleu dUdng thdnh tfeh vd trao c d c danh higu thi duo cho c d c t g p the, c d nhdn tieu bleu, xud't sdc trong phong trdo thi dua y e u nude todn Ngdnh. Cung vdi c d c t g p the vd c d nhdn dien hinh tien tien khdc, Trung t d m Thong tin vd Dfl bdo kinh te - xd hgi gud'c gia d d vinh dQ dQdc trao tdng Hudn chQdng Lao dgng hgng Ba cho nhQng thdnh tich xudt sdc c u a minh.D

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So 57 (9.2010) THONG TIN & DL/BAO KINH i t - XA HOI 15