K I N H T E THE GlOfI
Bien dong chinh trj xa hoi tgi Trung Dong, Bac Phi va tac dong cua no den Icinh te the gidi
TRAN V A N TUNG N G 6 MINH DirC
J/y di vii't tdp trung phdn tich nguyin nhdn ddn din khung hoang chinh tri, kinh tivd
^ xd hgi tgi Trung Ddng- Bac Phi. Ngodi ba nguyin nhdn bin trong: nin chinh tri mdt ddn chu vd xd citng; ty le that nghiip tdng cao; tham nhiing trdn lan vd bdt binh ddng thu nhdp d mdc cao; cdn cd nguyen nhdn yi'u td'nUdc ngodi can thiep i;do khu vUc ndy. Ddng thdi, tdc dong cua sit kien ndy din nin kinh titodn cdu, m^t sd'bdi hgc kinh nghiem cdng dUdc Idm rd.
1. Nguyen n h a n bien d p n g
1.1. Thi chi doc tdi, mdt ddn chii Trong 4 thap ky qua k l tfl th|ip nign 1970, t h i gidi Arap da dUdc thdng trj bdi eae thg' lUc quan sU, che dp dpe tai chuygn che.
cac qud'c gia tai khu vUe Trung Ddng da trai qua mpt qua trinh tig'n tdi dan chu va do dd, n i n dan chu da ton tai tai mpt vai qud'c gia Trung Ddng, thf dy nhU Iran.
NhUng theo danh gia eua cac to chfle qud'c t l v l tfl do, dan chu trgn the gidi thi khu vfle Trung Ddng tri trO trong tien trinh dan chu, n i m ngoai xu the phat trien trgn quy md toan elu dang diln ra tfl nhflng nam
1970 din nay. Cac nflde Trung Ddng va Chau Phi hien dupe xem nhU la khdng ap dyng va van hanh the che tU do dan chu, cy the la khdng cd ty do tfn ngUdng, khdng cd binh ding gidi, khdng cd tU do b l u cfl (ngo^i trfl Iran dfldc xem la cd tU do dan chu trong b l u cfl). Theo xIp hang cua Ngan hang T h i gidi vao nam 2008 [3], thi Kuwait, Libanon va Maroc la eae nUde ban dan chu (ed dan chu mpt phin) va cdn lai 14 qud'c gia Trung Ddng, Blc Phi la cac qudc gia khdng cd dan chu. Dilu dac biOt d cho chi cd 2% dan sd khu vUe Trung Ddng sdng trong xa hpi dupe coi la dan chu, 14% dan sd sdng trong xa hpi ban dan chu va 88% dan so song trong xa hdi khdng dan chu. Cac dilu kiOn dan chu tai Trung Ddng cung eye k^ toi tO, do dd B6 lupng eae qudc gia ban dan chu tang Ign
ch^m. Khdng chi la cae qudc gia ed t h i ehl chfnh trj dOc tai n h i t trgn t h i gidi, ma edn la qudc gia doi mat vdi tinh trang nghgo ddi, t h i t hpc, t h i e h l chfnh trj yeu kdm, phan biOt chung tpe va tham nhflng tran lan.
Nam 2008, Ngan hang The gidi cdng bo bang xep hang ve tU do dan chu trgn t h i gidi theo eae ehi sd nhU b l u cfl ty do, da ding chfnh trj, chfnh phu hiOu qua, tU do tfn ngUdng va tu do ca nhan, thi cae nUdc khu vUc Trung Ddng dflng sau hang loat cac nflde khac va qua cac chi so trgn cho thiy cac nflde nay la khdng ed ty do, dan chu.
Xdt ve mflc dp xd cflng cua the che chfnh trj, thi Trung Ddng d i n d i u v l tinh trang b i t hpp 1^. cae nha lanh dao duy tri quyln lanh d^o tfl 30 den 40 nam. Thf dy Tong thd'ng Ai Cap gifl chfle vy nay 29 nam, Td'ng thdng Ygmen 30 nam va Tong thdng Libya 41 nam. Quyln lye tai mdt so qudc gia lai truyin tfl ddi cha sang ddi con thdng qua cac thu thu^t chfnh tri tinh vi hoac dan ap da lam cho t h i e h l chfnh trj nay ngay cang mlt dan chu. Che dp dpe tai tig'p tyc dflpc duy tri t^o dilu kiOn cho cac nha chfnh trj tham nhflng, ngan c i n cic hoat dpng d i u tfl cdng cho gia© dye, y tg', hO thd'ng ha t i n g ed sd lam cho so' ngfldi nghgo t i n g nhanh.
Tran Van T&ng, PGS.TS.,Vidn Nghidn ciiu Chau Phi va Trung Ddng, Ngd Minh Diic, Vidn Nghidn cihi mdi trudng va phat triln bdn viing.
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Bie'n 06ng chfnh trj xa hOI...
1.2. Tha't nghiip d mite cao
Theo eae sd' liOu cua T l chfle lao dpng Lign doan Arap thi eae qud'c gia Trung Dong va Blc Phi cd ty 10 t h i t nghiOp cao nhit t h i gidi, vdi ty 10 trung binh nam 2008 la 14,5% (so vdi mflc t h i t nghiOp trung binh ca t h i gidi la 5%). Tuy nhign, so liOu kh6ng chfnh thfle v l ty 10 t h i t nghiOp cua Trung Ddng edn cao hdn nhilu. Dan sd' cua cac nflde Arap la dan so' tre, dfldi 15 tuoi cua Algieria chig'm 27%, cua Ai C^p chig'm 32%, cua Iran 23,8%, eua Iraq chilm 40,7%, eua Libya 30,1% va cua Ygmen chilm 43,4%. Nlu tfnh sd' dan d dp tud'i 25- 30 thi ty 10 dd la 60%. Algieria la nflde cd ty le thanh nign t h i t nghiOp cao n h i t t h i gidi, Ign tdi 75%. Tai Trung Ddng khdng cd chfnh sach an sinh xa hdi, bao hilm va trp d p tha't nghiOp, trong khi khu vfle nay lai c6 nguIn tai nguygn giau cd. Mdt dilu tra ciia Tap doan Nomura Nhat Ban nam 2008 cho ring, chfnh ty 10 t h i t nghiOp cao cua thanh nign la nguygn nhan gay nd'i loan tai Trung Ddng va Blc Phi. Bdi vi tam ly cua gidi tre khdng on djnh, dfldc hpc hanh nhUng khdng ed viOc lam day hp vao tinh trang m l t hg't nilm tin vao chg' dp, vao tfldng lai.
Nam 2008 den nay, gia lUdng thUe tang dot biln cung la nguygn nhan gdp p h i n tao ra bao loan tai Tuinisia, Ai Cap, Ygmen, Bahrain, Libya va mdt so qud'c gia khac.
Theo bao cao eua Ngan hang T h i gidi nam 2010, khoang 2/3 thu nhap eua eae gia dinh tai cac qudc gia nay chi tigu cho viOc mua lUdng thfle, thfle phim. Thf dy, tai Algieria, hp gia dinh p h i i chi tdi 63% thu nhap, cae s i liOu dd eua Ai Cap la 48,1%, Tuinisia 37%, Ygmen la 60%. Khi gia Ifldng thfle tang cao,eae hd gia dinh khdng t h i chi cho vige mua sIm eae loai hang hda thilt ylu khac. Nghgo ddi lan tran trgn diOn rdng.
Theo udc tfnh eua Ngan hang T h i gidi hiOn tai c6 hdn 40% dan sd eua khu vUc Trung D6ng-Blc Phi cd mflc thu nhap dfldi 2USD/ngay.
1.3. Tinh trang tham nhiing
Trong xa hpi Arap thi tham nhflng dfldc xem la mpt trong nhflng v l n d l nd'i com nha't. Tham nhflng diln ra d mpi d p tfl cao xuong tha'p va b i t d i u pho biln tfl nam 1960 din nay, khi ma nguIn lpi tfl diu mo tang len. Vdi doanh thu khd'ng lo tfl khai thac va x u i t k h i u diu, cac nflde Trung Ddng da d i u tfl nhilu dy an Idn vao cd sd h^ ting, trang bj vu khf, thilt lap can cfl quan sfl, khai thac e h l big'n diu khf. Ngoai ra eae cdng ty phfldng Tay cung s i n sang cung d p vdn vi hp muon bao vO cac qudc gia nay ed nguIn tai nguygn giau cd, dap flng nhu elu nhap k h i u cua hp. De cd cac hpp dong, cac nha t h I u khdng phai qua c^nh tranh, ma ddn gian la chi cho cac vj quan chfle mpt khoan hoa hong Idn. R i t nhilu nha d i u tfl nflde ngoai da than philn v l tinh trang kinh doanh tai eae quoc gia Arap.
Khdng edn nghi ngd gi nfla, tham nhung tai eae qudc gia Arap la mpt dai djch. Hdn 90% sd ngfldi dupe hdi tai cac qudc gia Algieria, Jordan, Libya, Maroc, Palestin diu cho r i n g tinh trang tham nhflng la pho biln. cae nha chfnh trj, can bd cao d p dja phUdng, cac doanh nhan dUng d i u trong danh sach tham nhflng. Mpt cude khao sat khac tai Libanon, 74% so' ngUdi dupe hdi cho r i n g phai hdi Id cho quan chUe chfnh phu mdi ed t h i gianh dUde cac hdp dong xay dyng cac cdng trinh h^ t i n g ed sd,cae dU an kinh t l Idn. Theo hp thi t i t c i cac nha chfnh trj tai Lebanon diu tham nhung [3].
V l mflc dp minh bach, chi cd Qatar dflng d vj trf thfl 28 trong 30 qudc gia hang diu v l minh bach, trong khi Iraq, Somali lai la nhflng nflde tham nhung n h i t . Cac nflde dflpc xem la minh bach n h i t trong t h i gidi Arap la Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan dilm cua hp chi bing 50% si" diem eua cac nflde Blc Au. Dilm eua eae biOn phap kilm soat tham nhung eua Trung Ddng ehi dflng trgn cac nflde nghgo n h i t thudc Chau Phi ma thdi. Vi cac biOn phap
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Bie'n 0Ong chfnh tr| xa h f l . . .
kilm soat kdm hiOu qua ngn td'ng t i i s i n eua Mubarack Ign tdi 70 ty USD (chilm hdn 30% GDP eua c i nflde), eua gia dinh Gadhafi I i hang chyc ty USD tiln m^t va Gadhafi da dflng tiln di chigu mO Hnh danh thug tfl mpt vai qud'c gia Chau Phi khac.
Chgnh lOch giau nghgo t^i cac qudc gia nay dang tang Ign. Theo Bao cao phat triln eon ngfldi nam 2005 eua UNDP, 20% dan sd nghgo nha't eua Tuinisia chig'm 7,8% thu nh^p ca nflde, ngUpe l^i 20% dan sd giau nha't chilm tdi 42,6%. Cac so' liOu tUdng Ung cua Ai cap la 8,6% va 43,6%, eua Maroc la 6,6% va 46,6%, cua Ygmen la 7,4% va 41,2%. Tham nhflng gay ngn b i t binh ding v l thu nhap, xdi mdn qua trinh dan chu hda, mdo md thj trfldng, can trd eae cd hpi d i u tfl va viOc lam cua ngfldi dan ngn da gay ra b^o loan. Ngoai ra, hO thd'ng phap luat tai mpt so' qud'c gia Trung Ddng lai tiep tay cho tham nhung. Tai s i n qud'c gia, tai nguygn d i u khf theo truyin thd'ng Ijch sfl lai rdi vao tay nhflng nha elm quyln, Quoc vUdng, Tfl trfldng cac hO phai ton giao hoac eae bp tdc.
Do dd, hien nhign hp cd quyln kiem soat va hudng lpi.
1.4. Yiu tdben ngodi
My tfl lau da mudh lat do eae t h i e h l chfnh trj ddc tai Trung Ddng va Blc Phi, do dd da chi moi nam hdn 100 triOu USD cho cae lye Iflpng ehdng doi to chfle bieu tinh, ung hp Ifle Ifldng ddi lap lat do chfnh phu.
My cho r i n g day la thdi dilm thfch hpp di thfle hiOn myc tigu truyin ba gia trj va tim kilm lpi fch tai khu vyc nay.
N l u loai trfl tae dpng eua yeu to' tdn giao trong biln dpng tai Trung Ddng va Blc Phi theo chung tdi la khdng d i y du, cae hO phai tdn giao, bp toe tai khu vfle nay ed quan hO b i n chat vdi nhau. Quan hO dd dfldc t h i hiOn thdng qua quyln lpi chfnh trj kinh te cua tflng t l chfle va eua ea hO thdng. Nhflng hO phai, bd tdc chilm doat dfldc vflng d i t cd tai nguygn d i u khf, hp cd cd hpi khai thac, x u i t k h i u va thu lpi nhuan. NgUde lai nhflng hO phai, bd toe khac khdng cd dflpc
cd hOi dd ehi phat t r i l n nhflng nganh cdng nghiOp khdng thuOe linh vyc d i u khf, ludn bj tham hyt tai chfnh. Mau t h u i n gifla eae nhdm lpi fch tang Ign, gdp p h i n gay ra cae cuOc b^o lo^n. Dilu dd dflpc t h i hiOn rd tai Libya, ndi miln Ddng cd nhilu tai nguygn d i u khf nhflng cae bO tpe nay lai khdng dupc quyln khai thac, ma quyln kilm soat l^i thuOe v l cae bO tpe miln Trung-Tay Libya, trong sd dd bd tpe Gadhafa cua gia dinh Gadhafi chilm p h i n Idn nguon lpi tfl d i u md. Cude d i u tranh ddi quyln lpi kinh t l t^i Libya khdng phai ehi do cac bp tOc miln Ddng phat dOng, ma ed ca eae doanh nhan miln Ddng tham gia. Ngoai ra, tai cac nflde Arap, Hoi giao dflpc xem la hO phai tdn giao chfnh chi phoi t h i e h l chfnh trj, bao vO cho eae the c h i dd cflng vdi cae nha lanh d^o dpe tai duy tri quyln lye lau dai, ein trd tien trinh d i n chu hda. Dilu do khdng phfl hdp vdi mong mudn eua lye Iflpng tien bp. Yeu to" Hoi giao Shia tai miln Blc Ygmen, Sunni tai Syria kfch dpng bieu tinh dupe t h i hiOn ro rang hdn. Tuy nhign, trong cae cude bilu tinh, bao loan, thi ngUdi Hoi giao khdng phan biet la Sunni hay Shiat hoac la ngUdi tfl cae tdn giao khac deu hang hai tham gia.
2. T i e d p n g c u a b i e n d p n g c h i n h trj tdi k i n h t e t o a n c a u
Nhflng cuOe bieu tinh d Libya dang khiln cho gia d i u t h i gidi tang cao, tham chf diy Ign mdi lo ng^i v l tinh hinh kinh t l toan ciu.
Nha lanh dao cua Libya, dng Moammar Gadhafi, da ra lOnh pha hdng cae ed sd khai thac va che bien d i u . B i t d i u b i n g viOc pha huy cac dng d i n d i u , c l t eae ong d i n tdi Dja Trung Hai. Ngudi ta khd cd t h i qugn hinh i n h 700 gieng d i u hoc chiy tren cat b Kuwait nam 1991 khi lUc lUdng eua Td'ng thdng Iraq Saddam Hussein, rut khdi day.
Tinh hinh dang diln ra tai Arapbia - vya d i u eua t h i gidi, c i n h bio r i n g nganh cdng nghiOp d i u l^a dang la tam diem cua tro ehdi chfnh trj. Su g i n chat gifla chfnh tri va
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BIfi'n Odng chfnh tri xa h 6 l . . .
diu Ba trd ngn chat che ke tfl cudc chiln Iraq-Kuwait vao nam 1990.
Khi eae Ifle lupng nd'i day gia tang ap lUc tai thu dd Tripoli cua Libya, s i n lUdng khai thac diu Ifla cua nUde nay cang thu hpp.
San xuit nhd gipt la tinh trang chung cua hiu hit cac mo d i u eua Lybia. Mpt so cang va nha may Ipc d i u bj i n h hudng nghigm trpng bdi edng n h i n qua sd hai khdng dam din lam viOe. Cdng nhan cua eae cdng ty diu nflde ngoai phai thao eh^y khdi nUde nay va lUc lupng cd vfl trang da b i t d i u cUdp pha nhflng nha may bj bd lai. ViOe phyc hii san xuit khdng phai la ehuyOn de dang. Dfl khong t h i xac djnh chfnh xac nhflng khu vyc san xuit d i u chju sy kigm soat trflc tig'p cua lye Ifldng nd'i day, nhflng khoang 80%
viing san xuit d i u cua qud'c gia nay da nim trong tim trong tay eua hp.
Dieu khig'n cho ngUdi ta phai dau diu la gia diu Ign tdi hdn 100 USD mot thung va nguy cd nhiing cudc noi day lat do chfnh quyln giong nhU b Ai Cap va Tunisia cd t h i lan ra cac nUde OPEC. Ng'u nhU chfnh quyln Libya syp do, tinh hinh se trd ngn toi te hdn cho nganh s i n xuat diu. Trong ngin han, nhflng nflde nhfl Saudi Arapbia ed the tang san Ifldng va khach hang Idn nhfl My da dfl trfl hang triOu thflng d i u phdng cho nhiing trfldng hdp k h i n d p . Nhflng cac chuygn gia cho r i n g tinh trang bao loan dang lam Iflng doan thj trfldng d i u Ifla. The gidi dang khat diu, sfl can b i n g cung elu diu Ifla hiOn gidng nhfl ngan can treo spi tdc va se r i t khd gifl ng'u cd thgm sy clt giam v l nguon cung.
Trgn thfle t l , Ifldng d i u dfl trfl chu yeu do cac qudc gia thanh vidn OPEC ed the sin xuit thgm la r i t nhd (khoang 5 triOu thflng moi ngay), ehi bing 6% Iflpng d i u ma toan thi gidi tigu thy hang ngay. Costanza Jacazio - nha phan tfch nang Ifldng cua Barclays Capital tai New York, cho r i n g noi lo vl bao lo£in gia tang ed the se khiln cho gia diu Ign cao hdn nfla. Theo Jan Stuart - nha kinh te nang Ifldng tai Maequarie
Securities: "Mdt l i n nfla chilu hfldng chfnh trj lai tae dpng din gia diu" Tham chf, gia diu da tang din trflde khi cae cuOe bilu tinh no ra lan rpng tai nhilu quoc gia Trung Ddng va Blc Phi. Kinh te the gidi dang phyc hIi se khig'n cho nhu ciu diu Ifla tang khoang 2% trong nam 2011. Gidi chuyen gia dy doan gia d i u cd t h i tang tdi 120 USD, tham chf 150 USD mpt thflng. Gia diu tai New York da vfldt qua mflc 100 USD moi thflng lin diu tign k l tfl thang 10 2008.
T^i London, gia diu thd Brent Ign tdi gin 115 USD mpt thflng.
cac nha kinh t l lo ngai viOc gia nang Iflpng tig'p tyc tang cao se gay anh hfldng Idn nin kinh te thg' gidi dang b i t diu hoi phyc.
Thang 3-2011, gia xang trung binh da tang len 3,29 USD mpt gallon so vdi 3,11 USD thang trflde. Theo quy luat, moi xu gia diu tang khig'n cho ngfldi tigu dflng m l t thgm hdn mpt ty USD mpt nam. Neu nhfl gia diu tilp tyc tang, ngfldi tigu dflng se phai t h i t Iflng bupe byng. Trfldng hdp tinh trang gia cao kdo dai, anh hfldng eua nd se r i t nghigm trpng. Mli edn sd'c d i u trong 40 nam qua deu diy kinh t l t h i gidi vao khung hoing.
Nariman Behravesh, nha kinh te d p cao tai IHS Global Insight cho biet, cfl moi 10 USD mdt thflng d i u tang len thi tang trfldng kinh te se giam 0,002% sau mdt nam va 1%
sau hdn 2 nam.
D I binh on thj trfldng, Saudi Arapbia da b i t d i u tang s i n Iflpng d i u thd Ign mflc hdn 9 triOu thflng mpt ngiy, tang gin 700.000 thflng so vdi cudi nam 2010. To chfle nang Iflpng qud'c te (lEA) cho ring, t h i gidi da ed edng cy trong tay di cung flng du diu cho thi trfldng, bao gIm ea nguon dfl trfl khIn d p eua eae qud'c gia tigu thy diu Idn.
va'n di tiep dien d Trung Ddng dang dfldc sy quan tam Idn, bdi viOc tang gia diu cung eanh bao v l nguy ed khung hoing kinh t l . Cdn sdc d i u Idn n h i t xiy ra khi cd elm van OPEC nhflng nam 1973-1974, khiln gia diu tang Ign glp 4 lin, kinh t l tang trfldng cham, lam phat va t h i t nghiOp ting cao.
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Bie'n 0dng chfnh trj xa h $ l . . .
N l u nhfl nhflng cuOc bao lo^n hiOn nay khig'n cho gia d i u t a n g thgm 40 d i n 50 USD/thflng, trd l^i dinh cao 3 n a m trflde thi kinh tg' gidi se bj a n h hudng vd eflng nghigm trpng.
NhQng b i l n dpng tai Libya lam cho h a n g nghin lao ddng tai Libya cua ViOt Nam va cac qud'c gia khac phai trd v l . V l n d l n a n giai la cudc sd'ng cua hp se ra sao khi khdng cd vige lam va khoan nd phai t r a cho cac djch vy, ehi phf de di lao dpng dg'n h^n? LiOu r i n g t i t ea lao dpng ViOt N a m cd viOc lam khi v l nude khdng? V l lau dai, tinh hinh Trung Ddng tuy ehUa d'n djnh, nhUng sg cai thiOn theo hudng dan chu hdn, n h i l u ed hpi hpp tac mdi se dupe thuc d i y m a n h mg.
Chfnh phu ViOt N a m c i n cd dd'i sach thfch hdp dg h a n chg' cac tac ddng tigu cUc nhU tha't nghiOp va lam p h a t dang tang.
K e t l u a n
P h a n tfch trgn khdng phai di nhin n h a n mpt chilu va khdng phai la thfl nghjeh vdi chien lupe ngoai giao cua Hoa Kf \k Tay Au.
Thit nhd't, mdi quan hO gifla "gia trj" va
"lpi fch," ludn ludn la cac yeu to' d u t h a n h trong chien lUde ngoai giao cua cac nUde, vdi cac mflc dp, quy md khac n h a u . La mpt sigu efldng d i n d i u thg' gidi, cflng vdi mpt so' nflde mudn gay a n h hfldng tai k h u vfle nay, cac binh diOn "gia trj" va "lpi fch" dd t h i hiOn ro rOt hdn bao gid h i t trong chig'n Iflpc ngo^i giao eua My , Tay Au.
Thi2 hai. My la nflde v a n dyng mpt each khdn ngoan, linh hoat n h i t , q u y l n big'n nha't mdi quan hO gifla "gia trj My" va "lpi fch My" trong c h i l n Iflpe ngoai giao toan e l u eua minh n h i m ludn gifl vflng dupe vi t r i thdng linh va l a n h dao the gidi. Bgn canh dd cflng phai t h i y r i n g dfl sao di nfla, cac "gia trj My" cung chfla dyng n h i l u yeu t d tien bp, phfl hdp vdi sfl p h a t trien eua n h a n loai, tao ngn q u y l n lye m I m eua My va trd t h a n h xu thg' khd efldng dd'i vdi t h i gidi.
Thit ba, phai t h i y nguygn n h a n quan trpng nha't cho sfl bflng no cua "cudc each
m^ing hoa Nhai" p h i i I i b a n t h i n sy khiing hoang eua md h i n h chfnh trj t^i cae nflde sd t^i, sy kim kpp, t h i l u t y do v l chfnh tri, sy m a u t h u i n gifla viOc c i i c i e h chfnh trj khdng d i n g bp va khdng theo kjp c i i c i c h kinh t l , t i n h t r a n g dOc t a i va t h a m n h u n g cua gidi chdp bu n i m q u y l n . Neu khdng cd cac y l u td" npi t^i dd thi cho dfl My, Tay Au cd n g l m n g l m h a y edng k h a i thye hiOn cac c h i l n Iflpc nao dd di phyc vy cho c h i l n Iflpe toan e l u cua minh, thi cae yeu to bgn ngoai cflng khd long ma e h u y i n hda t h a n h each m^ng cua q u i n c h u n g dflpc. Do dd, di t r a n h cac t h a m hpa do mau, lam vat hy sinh cho qudc gia khac, e i n p h i i xay diing mOt n i n dan chu t h y e sfl, trgn cd sd dd t a p t r u n g mpi nguon Ifle cho p h a t trien kinh tl^, cdng b i n g
xa hdi./.
T A I L I £ U THAM K H A O
1. Gen aarp (2010), From dictatorship to democracy Third US Ediction.
2. Brain Whitalcer (2009), Whats relly wrong the Middle East Saqi Books.
3. World Banlc (2008). Worldwide Governance Indicators.
4.www.foreignaffairs.com/24
http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/books/kanov/chap5.html.
5. George Friedman (2(X)4), Amercia's secret war.
Anchor Book, New York.
6. George Friedman (2011), the Next Decade, Doubleday, New York.
7. Francois Massouhe (1999), Middle East Conflicts, Interlink Books, New York.
8. Samuel P. Huntington (2003), TTie Qash of Civilizations, Simon & Schuster.
9. Gene Sharp (2010), From distatorship to democracy, Third US Edition
10. Brian Whitaker (2009), Whats ReUy Wrong with the Middle East, Saqi Book.
11. WB (2008), Woridwide Governance Indicator Report 2008.
12. Tran Van Tiing (2010), Khiing hoang nang lupng va vj trf ciia Trung Ddng trong thj trudng thfif gidi, tap chf Chau Phi va Trung Ddng sd 5-2010.
13. Trin Van Titng (2011), Biafn dPng Tning Ddng va Bac Phi va anh hudng cua nd tdi kinh t€ toan cdu. Tap chf Chau Phi va Trung Ddng sd 3-2011.
14. Tran Van Tiing (2011), V^ bi^n ddng Ai Cap va loi ich My, Tap chf Nhihig v ^ dl kinh tH wk chhih tri thdfgidi,sd 3-2011.
