Du bao san lupng thuy san Viet Nam hang ham xu the
Khoa Kg 1 0 ^ -
Nguy&VanDiep
- Phan tich, Truong Dai hoc Kinh ig Nghe An
Bii bio sir dyng c i c md hinh khic nhau cua him xu the d i dy b i o sin lupng ttiuy sin eiia Viit Nam dpa trin cic sd Iiiu eiia q u i khu. Sfl dyng c i e Uiu chuin cua Uidng ki Uong lya chon md hinh d i Um md hinh Uifch hyp nhit, tii dd tii'n hinh dp b i o s i n lupng ihfly sin cho 5 nim tiip Uieo bing md hinh niy.
1. Tinh hinh va y nghla cua viec du hao san lumig thuy san cua ninrc ta
Trong xu hudng hOi nhip quCic t i hiin nay, nhu ciu vi thdng tin Ihj trudng tgi mOt thdi diim n i o dd tKjng luong lai Ii rit c i n thiit. Nhi nude ta d i thiy rd y nghla to Idn c ua dp b i o ddi vdi sp phit triin kinh t i xa hOi ciia dit nude, do dd da ed nhiiu quan tim d i n cOng tie niy trong nhting nim gin diy. Nhiiu co quan chuyin trich vi bin ehuyin trach v i dp b i o d i dupe Uiinh tip d e i p BO, tinh vi Uianh phd. Tuy nhiin, Uieo dinh gii cdng tie dp b i o cfla nude ta cdn rit non kim vi hgn c h i nhiiu mil, chua d i p iing dupe nhu ciu cfla sp phit triin kinh te eua d i t nude hiin nay. Nguyin nhin ciia thyc trgng niy thi nhiiu, nhung cd thi ehi ra mOI s6 nguyen nhin ehinh sau: Sp Uiiiu hyl nghiim Upng nhin Ipc trong Iinh vuc du bio;
cic sd Iiiu tdng hpp cho dp b i o fdidng diy du va khing chinh xic; c i c eo quan don vj d dia phuong cOn xem nh? cdng tic dp bio; thiiu phuong tiin ky Uiuit, kinh phf cho dy bio, ...
Dp bio sin lupng thuy sin li mOt hong nhting viOc cin thiit eho viOe phat triin nganh kinh t i ndng nghiip hing diu cfla nude ta. Khi chung ta dp doin dupe sin Iupng Ihfly s i n d tuong lai ting hay giim so vdi hiin tgi, khi dd chung ta s i cd c i c chinh sach tic dOng mdt eieh klp thdi vi dung Iflc d i n e i c bp phin Iiin quan. Dd Ii eae ehinh saeh Iiin quan d i n dit nudi tring thuy sin, tu dd i n h hudng d i n viic quy hogch nudi uOng thuy sin vi nhiiu vin de kinh te xa hOi khic. Dp b i o dupe sin lupng thiiy sin se giflp eho hiip hOi e h i biin vi xuit khiu Uifly sin (VASEP) Uiam muu cho nha nude trong viec ning cao ning suit, sin lupng ttiiiy sin d ti-ong nude, diiu hinh k i hoaeh xuat khiu mang Igi loi ich eao nhil cho ngudi ndng din va doanh nghiip.
2. Nguon SO lieu
Di dy b i o sin Iupng Ihfly sin cua nude ta, tdi su dyng dti li^u cua q u i khu tir n i m 1990 d i n n i m 2019 (30 nim). Sd liiu niy dupe Iiy tir trang web cua Tdng
eye Thdng ki vi BO ndng nghiip Phil triin Ndng Ihdn ngiy iyi/2012. Cy thi s6 liiu dupe eho bdi bing sau:
Bi— 1 Tfci— tu i i » l a y i t t h i ; i t n Vlti .N'lm i t aim IWO -1019 (nghin 1^)
23S0.9 2A}^ 1 2647.9 :E59.B J14J.2 J4aa.s 3721.6 41»9.1 4602.0
Nlliu 2010 2011 2012 201J 2014 201}
20ie 2017 2DIS
^WlLfQtl, (Dgbliitii S 142.7 5447.4 5820.7 M19.7 A133.2 6312.1 6870,7 7313.4 7768,5 Sgudn Ting cvc thSng ki
Sd Iiiu bing 1 dupe ve thanh biiu dd eOl nhu sau:
Hinb 1. S i l lirgng ihuy s i n Vi^r Nam (nghin Un)
% I t t I 3. Phirong phap thirc hien
Sfl dyng sd Iiiu tir bing 1, tdi Uin hanh du b i o sin lupng thuy sin nude ta bing phuong phip Ham xu thi Md hinh hOi quy: Su dyng c i c md hinh hdi quy d i biit cho viie dp bao nhir ham xu thi tuyen Unh, him xu the Par^jol vi h i m xu thi mii. Dp b i o sin lupng thuy sin vdi tit e i c i e md hinh niy, sau dd dua vio mdt sd Uiu chuin cua thdng ke SE, dO th( phin tin d i dinh gii sp phu hpp ciia md hinh, tir dd Ipa chyn dudng hoi quy phu hpp nha!
4. Cac mo hinh dir bao san lirong thuy san 4.1 Md hinh hdi quy
Gpi I la n i m iing vdi sd lupng luyin sinh dp b i o yt, cic md hinh hdi quy theo thdi gian dupe su dung trong nghiin eiiu niy la
H A U A - T M A I
11
NGHIEN CUU do ngudi hpc khdng d i u nhau, c i n cd tii tiiu thfeh hpp vdi limg hgng. Tii lieu khdng thich hpp thi hpc khdng ed ich kjrf gi" (xem (11, h71). Ngudi cflng khuyin phii biit "quy hd tinh, bit quy hd da" Uong viie md cic Idp dao tgo can bO, "^ md nhieu Idp n i n thiiu nguoi giing. Thiiu ngudi giing thi hpc viin d i m chin nan Thiiu ngudi giing thi phii di "bit phu", vi thi ngudi d i n giing khi nao eting h i p tip, ludt qua lop niy mdt chut, Idp khic mOt chul "nhu chudn chuOn dgp nude", dgy khdng dupe chu dio. Thiiu ngudi giing thi ttiudng khi Igi phii "bit 16", ngudi "bjt 16"
ning luc kim, ndi sai, cd hgi eho hpc sinh. Rdi cuOc chi tdn ggo ma hpc thi hpc t i p nhoeing. Vay phii lim t h i nio? Phii hpp ly hda, nghia li: Md Idp n i o cho ra Idp iy, lya chpn ngudi dgy v i ngudi d i n hpc cho cin Ihin, dimg md Idp lung tung" (xem [1], U76). Trong giing dgy van hda hay huin luyin chinh tri.
Chii tjch Hd Chf Minh d i chfl y dua ngudi hpc di hi nhimg kinh nghiOm, khii niim thip d i d i n d i n ning lin mirc cao hon. Ngudi ludn ehu trpng vdn hiiu biil, vdn kinh nghiim v i tir dd ning d i n lin thinh nhting nhin djnh khii quat.
Thu ba, phucmg phip dgy hpc phii gin ly luin vdi thpe tiin. Diy li vin d i eOl Idi ciia cich dgy vi hpe trong nguyin tic giio dye Hd Chi Minh. Cieh dgy cua Chu tjch H6 Chi Minh khdng "hOi tde bit dgt", khdng nhdi nhil kiin thiic m i dgy d i n diu chic d i n dd, hpe din d i u hiiu siu d i n diy, nhim lim eho hpe trd vin dyng dupe ly Iuin v i o thyc tiin sdi dOng, da dgng ludn biin ddi. Ngudi ein din: "Cie thiy giio, ed giio phii tim eich dgy. Dgy cii gi, dgy the n i o d i hpc Ud hiiu chdng, nhd liu, tiin bO nhanh. Dgy v i hpe c i n phii theo nhu cau eua d i n tdc, cua Nhi nude. Thay dgy tdt, ti:d hpe tdt, cung c i p dfl c i n bO eho ndng nghiip, cdng nghiip, cho
cic nginh kinh l i va van hda. Dd li nhiim vy v i vang cua e i c thiy giio, cd giio" (xem [1], tr97). Vdi cin bO, ding viin, Ngudi ndi: "Ly luin cflng nhu cii tin (hoic viin dgn). Thpe hinh eung nhu cii dich d i bin. Cd tin m i khdng bin. hoic b i n lung tung cflng nhu khdng cd tin. Ly Iuin cdt d i i p dyng vao ttipc ti.
Chi hpc thuOc Idng, d i dem Ide thiin hg thi ly Iuin iy cung vd ich. Vi viy, chung ta phai ging hpc, ddng thdi hpc phii hinh" (xem [1], IrI28).
Thu tu, phuong phip dgy hpc phii phit huy Unh chii dOng, sang tgo, dOc lip suy nghi eua ngudi hpc.
Chii Uch Hd Chi Minh n i u ra ba eiu hdi cho giao dye:
"Hpc t h i nao? Hpc cii gi? Hpe d i lam gi?" (xem [Ij, U81). Nhu viy, song song vdi myc dich, nOi dung giio dye thi vin d i phuong phip day hpc Ii mOt Uong nhung vin d i co ban cfla q u i Uinh giio due ma Ngudi d i e biit luu lim. Ngudi viil: "Trong trudng cin ed d i n chu. Dd'i \oi mpi vin d i . thay v i trd eung nhau thao luin, ai ed y kiin gi d i u that ttii phai biiu. Diiu gi
l i o K I N H Tt CMAU A - THAI S I N H DUOna [TMAHD fi / ZDZO)
Chua Ihdng sudt. ttii hdi, b i n cho thdng sudt. Din chii nhung trd phii kinh ttiiy, thiy phii quy Ud, chu khdng phai li ca dd'i bang diu" (xem 111, h83). Bing nhtmg phat biiu Irin, cho chung ta ttiiy Chu Ueh Hd Chi Minh da d i e i p d i n mOt phuong phap dgy hpc mdi, tiin bO m i ngiy nay chung ta dang thpe hiin dd li phuong phip dgy hpc phit huy tinh chu thi sang tgo eua hoc sinh, sinh vien Pong qua trinh hpc tip. Thiy va trd cung nhau "thio luin", "bin bgc" ehu khdng phai la thiy dOng quyin uy ap dii, trd r i m r i p nghe theo, thiy dpc trd chip...Ngudi dgy: "Khdng n i n hpc ggo, khdng n i n hoc vet (...). Hpc phii suy nghi, phii liin h i vdi thpe te, phii cd thi nghiim v i thpe hinh"
(xem [1), tri56). Li ngudi thiu hiiu e i n k i mye dfch, ti'nh ehit cung nhu tie hgi eua "Idi hpe nh6i sp", "Id!
hpe cdt d i thi dd" trong n h i trudng phong kiin, Phip ttiuOc nin Chfl tjch Hd Chf Minh tha thiit mong phii thay ddi eieh dgy, eich hpc d i phit huy dupe Unh thin chfl dOng, sing tgo cua ngudi hpc. Nhu viy, n i n giio dye hiin dgi hdm nay cd t h i tim thiy Uong tu tudng HO Chf Minh nhung co sd c i n b i n cho phuong phip dgy hpc "Liy ngudi hpc lim tmng tim" trong qui Irinh giio dye va d i o tgo.
3. Ket luan
Bing nhung cu ehi, phuong phip giio dye, tinh m i u myc trong sing cfla mOt nhin cich eao d^p, Chfl Uch Hd Chf Minh d i Ud thanh mOI n h i giio dye vi dgi eua din tde ta, eda thiM dgi chflng la. Dudi i n h sing lu tudng giio dye cfla Ngudi, ehflng ta eing hiiu siu s i c hem mOt sd vin d i v i phuong phip dgy hpe cfla Ngudi. Tu tudng cfla Ngudi vin mii l i kim chi nam chi dgo hogt ddng eiia hO thdng giio dye nude nhi; li nhinig djnh hudng, gpi md bd ich, s i u s i c giup m6i nhi trudng, mdi ttiiy cd giio Um ra nhung giii phip phu hpp vdi diiu kiin cy the nhim ning cao hon nua chit iupng giio due - dao tgo hpc sinh, sinh viin thinh nhtmg ngudi "thira k i xiy dpng chO nghla x i hOi vira hdng vua chuyin" (xem [I], tr275) nhu Ding la v i Chfl tjch HO Chi Minh mong dpi./.
Tai lieu tham khao
I. Tu tudng HO Chi Minh v i giao dye Nxb Lao dOng, Hi NOi, 2005.
Du bao san luong thuy san \^et Nam bkig ham xu the
Nguy&i van Di^p
Khoa K6 t o ^ — Phan lich. Truong Dgi hoc Kinh te \gh^ An
Bii bio su dyng c i c md hinh khic nhau cfla ham xu t h i d i dp b i o sin lupng thfly sin ciia Viit Nam dya trin ckc sd liiu cfla qui khir. Su dyng cac tiiu chuan cua thdng ki Uong lya chpn md hinh d i tim md hinh thich hpp nhit, tir dd Uin hinh dp b i o sin Iupng thuy s i n cho 5 nim tiip theo bing md hinh niy.
1. Tinh hinh va y nghla cua viec du hao san luvng thuy san cua nuoc ta
Trong xu hudng hOi nhip QuOc te hiin nay, nhu ciu vi thOng tin thj trudng Igi mOt thai diim n i o dd trong tuong lai Ii rit cin thiit. Nha nude ta d i thiy rd y nghla to Idn c fla dy b i o ddi vdi sp phit triin kinh te xa hOi cua dit nude, do dd da cd nhiiu quan tim d i n cing tic niy trong nhirng n i m gin diy. Nhiiu co quan chuyin trich vi bin chuyin trich vi dp b i o d i dupe Uiinh lip d e i p BO, tinh vi Uiinh phd. Tuy nhiin, Uieo dinh gii cdng tie dp b i o eua nude ta cdn T&t non kim va hgn e h i nhiiu mil, ehua d i p img dupe nhu ciu cfla su phit triin kinh t i cua dit nude hiin nay. Nguyin nhan cua thpe trgng niy thi nhieu, nhung cd thi chi ra mOt sd nguyin nhin chinh sau: Sp Uiiiu hyl nghiim hpng nhin lye Uong Unh vpc dp bao;
ckc s6 Iiiu tdng hpp cho dp bao khdng diy du v i khOng chinh xic; cic eo quan don vi d dla phucmg c6n xem nh? edng tic dp bio; thiiu phuong tiin ky Uiuit, kinh phi eho dp b i o ; . . .
Dp bio sin Iupng thfly s i n li mOt trong nhting viic ein thiit eho viic phit triin nginh kinh t i ndng nghiip hing diu cfla nude ta. Khi ehflng ta dp doin dupe sin lupng thiiy s i n d luong lai ting hay giim so vdi hiin tgi, khi dd chung ta s i cd c i c ehfnh saeh tie dOng mOt eich kip thdi vi ddng Iflc d i n c i e bO phin Iiin quan. Dd li c i e ehinh sieh liin quan d i n dit nudi trOng thfly sin, tii dd i n h hudng d i n viic quy hogch nudi udng thuy s i n vi nhiiu vin d i kinh t i x i hOi khie. Dp b i o dupe sin lupng thuy sin se giup cho hiip hOi c h i biin v i xuil khiu thuy sin (VASEP) ttiam muu eho nhi nude Uong viie ning eao ning suit, san lupng ttifly sin d hong nude, diiu hanh ke hoach xuit khiu mang igi loi ich cao nhit cho ngudi ndng din vi doanh nghiip.
2. Nguon so lieu
Bi dy b i o sin lupng thily s i n cfla nude ta, Idi su dyng du liiu eiia q u i khu lii n i m 1990 d i n n i m 2019 (30 nim). Sd Iiiu niy dupe liy tii trang web cua Tdng
eye Thdng ki vi BO ndng nghiip Phit triin Ndng Ihdn ngiy 1/1/2012. Cu thi sd Iiiu dupe cho bdi bang sau:
BinK 1' T l B i i Ui tia laymg H i ; iin %'ltl Nin iBtm l » 9 0 - i O »
2010 5447.4 )820.7 6019.7
.tguon Tdng eve ihSng ki
So liiu bing 1 dupe ve thinh biiu dO eOI nhu sau:
Hinh 1. StK tiring thuy i i n Vi^t Nam [nghin tin)
i i i l i i i l M l i s i l
3. Phirong phap thuc hien
Sfl dyng sd liiu hi bing 1, tdi tiin hinh dy b i o sin lupng ttifly sin nude la bing phuong phip Him xu Uii Md hinh hdi quy: Su dyng cie md hinh hdi quy d i biil cho viic du b i o nhu: him xu thi tuyin tinh, him xu thi Parabol v i ham xu Uii mu. Dy b i o sin lupng thfly san vdi tit ca cic md hinh niy, sau dd dpa vio mOt so tiiu chuan eua thdng ki SE, dd thl phin tin d i danh gia su phu hpp cua md hinh, tu dd Ipa chpn dudng hdi quy phfl hpp nhit.
4. Cac mo hinh dir bao san lugng thuy san 4.1 Mdhinh hdi quy
Gpi I la n i m iing vdi sd Iupng tuyin sinh dp b i o yt, e i c md hinh hdi quy theo thdi gian dupe sir dyng trong nghien ciiu nay Ii
119
NGHIIM COU
(2) - Him xu thi Ujyin Unh y, = a o+ a , l (1) - Him xu t h i parabol:
y, = ao + ajt + ajtZ
• Ham xu t h i mu yi=PoP*l£
4JZ Lpa chpn md hinh phu h p p
Cd ril nhiiu md hinh dp doin vi viic lua chpn md hinh dp doan n i o dupe dya vio dO chinh x i c cua kit qui dy doin. Trong bii viit niy, tdi lya chpn md hinh dp doin tdt nhit dpa vio sai sd chuin ciia md hinh (SE)
(3)
Z(yi-
Trong d6: Y, Muc dp uoc lupng ciia tiien nioiig o itaoi giao t yt: Mure dQ tiao dau cua day sd cr thai gian t
n. So lii^ng mirc 6Q cua diy so p. So lu?ng cac h? so ctia ham xu the
5. Ket qua du bao tong san luong thuy sin Tir sd liiu bing 1, chiing ta tmh dupe e i c dudng hdi quy dp b i o theo (1), (2), cho s i n Iupng thiiy s i n e i nim cy thi nhu sau:
- HOi quy hjyin Unh: y, = -166.661 + 255.784t Trong dd t l i n i m e i n dy b i o .
- Him xu Uii parabol: y, = 718.990 + 89.7341 + 5.356|2
- Him xu Uii mu ; y(=e«"2i+oo78.
b) Lya chpn dudng hdi quy
DO thj phin tin cfla sd liiu vi dd thj eua c i c md hinh hdi quy dp bao dupe xic djnh bdi c i c him trin, dupe thi hiin nhu sau:
m u 2: B* Ikl phis !«• {U tr| tkft ie v> 3 • • bUk kil qwy df bio lai tv^mg tkiy saa
120
BiBg 2: T ^ hfp cic tlri ckmaa
Ham xu ttie tuyeo tinh Ham xn th^ Paiabol Ham xn the md
3 9 4 4 6'."
136 748 96.45 Bing 2 eho la Uiiy tit c i c chi sd dinh gii sp phO hpp o i a h i m xu t h i mfl idt hon c i e md hinh cdn Igi.
Tu c i c phin tieh Uin la thiy trong e i c md hinh hdi quy dp b i o sin Iupng thuy sin, h i m xu the mO Ii phu hpp nhit.
6. Ket qua dir bao cbo san lupng Ibvy san Thyc hiin vi§c dp b i o sin Iupng thuy sin theo h i m xu ttii mu giai dogn 2020 — 2025 la cd kit q u i ey the dupe tdng hpp nhu sau:
BiaK 3 : Kel q i i dy b i o MM I T B K t h i y i i n glml Ootm 2020-1025
S n tiring
tbny tM S488.57J 9163.110 9890 515 IOA75I16 11S21.137 12433425
7. Mot SO nhan xet
Dp b i o s i n lupng thuy sin thit rit khd d i cd dupe kit q u i chmh x i e cao bdi vi nd khdng hhCt ng phy IhuOc vio thdi Uit, thuy van, djch h^i m i edn phy thuOe vio c i e ehinh sich v i xuil khiu thuy s i n cfla Nhi nude, phy thudc vio k^ thuit nudi trdng, i p dyng sp phit triin cfla c i e tiin bO cfla khoa hpc kj- thuit phyc vy hong nudi hdng v i dinh b i t Pong tuong lai.
Tuy nhiin, su dyng md hinh hdi quy Irong d p b i o sin lupng Ihfly sin ti mdt kinh dp b i o quan IrQng d i Uiam khio Uong e i c quy hoach phit Uiin. Ddi vdi phuong phap hdi quy, riiu cd Uiim dupe dd liiu eho c i c biin khic i n h hudng d i n sin lupng Uiijy s i n thi viie dp b i o sfi eho kit q u i ehinh x i e hoTL Hiin tgi, phuong phip niy cOng dupe sii dyng phd biin d i dp b i o ngin hgn eho nhiiu Unh vpc khicy.
Tat lieu tham khao
Ding Hiing Thing (1999). Thdng k i va Ung dyng, Nxb Giio dye.
Hoing Trpng, Chu Nguyin MOng Hung (2008).
Thdng ke ung dyng pong kinh l i xi hdi, Nxb Nguyin Quang Dong, Nguyin Thj Minh (1998).
Kinh t i Iupng, Nxb Dai hpc KirUi t i Qudc din Trin Thj Kim Thu (2014), Ly Uiuyit Uidng k i Nxb Dgi hpe Kinh t i Qude din
HUih 2 cho ta Uiiy md hUih hdi quy hiyin tirUi cd c i c gii trj dp b i o gin dung vdi gia tn Uipc t i n h i t
Chiing ta cOng ed c i c tiiu chuin dinh gii md hinh hOi quy d i xiy dpng cy thi nhu sau:
