Ap dung phaong phap phan tfch thCr bgc trong xay dang bp chi so 0 6 thj xanh'
v u QUOC HUY LE THI T H U HIEN
^ 0 tec xdy dQng chi sd'Dd thi xanh (Green City Index) dang Id vd'n de diidc cd gidi nghien S^ cQu vd hoach dinh chinh sdch quan tdm. Hai vdn di quan trpng cdn dQdc gidi quyi't trong qud trinh xdy diing bp chi sd'nay la viec liXa chpn bp chi so'thdnh phdn phdn dnh khdi niem dd thi xanh, ddng thdi xdc dinh dQdc mQc dp quan trpng cua tiing chi sd'thdnh phdn trong mot chi so' tong hdp. Nghien cQu sQ dung phQdng phdp phdn tich thQ bdc (AHP- Analytical Hierchy Process) de xdc dinh trpng so cua 7 chi so thdnh phdn trong bp chi so dd thi xanh dp dung thii nghiem tai thdnh phd'Vinh Yen.
Tii k h o a : do thi xanh, ra quyi't dinh da muc tieu, phdn tich thQ bdc.
1. G i d i t h i e u
Va'n de quyet dinh da muc tieu da dUdc nghien ciiu tii nhieu n a m nay. P h a n Idn cac quyet dinh trong cac linh vUc khac n h a u ttjf quan 1^, kinh doanh de'n ky t h u i t , suy cho cung deu la nhiJng quyet dinh vdi nhieu muc tieu mang tfnh d a n h doi iSn n h a u . Quyet dinh Ik su lua chon mot phUdng an cuoi ciing ttt mot so" cac phudng a n toi u u Pareto theo nghia khi chuyen tut phUdng a n n a y sang phUdng an khac n e u co mot chi tieu dUdc cai thien thi it n h a t se co mot chi tieu bi tac dong tieu ciJc hdn (Carrillo, 2012). Theo phUdng p h a p t r u y e n tho'ng, quyet dinh dUdc thong qua viec Itia chon n h a m toi uu hoa mot h a m muc tieu tong hdp dUde xac dinh tii cac miic tieu t h a n h phlin vdi cac tr9ng so' thich hdp. Viec xac dinh cac trong so cua cac miic tieu t h a n h p h ^ do vky co f nghia h^t stlc quan trong trong bai toan r a quyet dinh da mtic tieu truyen thong. Co rSit nhieu each tiep ckn khac n h a u trong viec xac dinh trong so' nay ma mo hinh p h a n tich thii belc la mot trong so do. Cung cdn p h a i noi t h e m rkng mo h i n h p h a n tich thii bile khong chi dvlng lai cl viec danh gia miic dp quan trong ciia cac miic tieu, ma con ap dung cl trong ta't ca eae ca'p bac trong qua t r i n h quyet dinh, bao gom ca
viec so s a n h gia tri mt^c tieu tudng doi cua cac phUdng an khac n h a u .
Mac dii phUdng p h a p p h a n tich thii bac trong cac quyet dinh da muc tieu tii lau da dUdc ap dting ra^t rong r a i trong nhieu linh vuc t r e n the gidi, phUdng p h a p nay con chUa dUdc biS't d^n nhieu cl Viet Nam. So' nghien ciiu da dudc cong b6' v l chu de nay con r^t ft, h^u n h u khong dang ke. Nguyen Vi$t Th^ng va Vii Trong Tich (2015) ap dung phUdng p h a p nay de xac dinh d i l m trong so' trong d a n h gia t i n h hinh noi bo cac doanh nghiep van tai t r e n 6 tiSu chf: (1) cong tac quan tri;
(2) dia diem va dia b a n hoat dpng; (3) quy mo; (4) phUdng tien va t h i e t bi; (5) chSft lUdng dich vu v a n t a i va; (6) tfnh hinh tai chfnh ciia doanh nghiep. Nguyen Anh Hoang va cong sU (2010) da tieh hdp m6 hinh p h a n tfch thti bac va phUdng p h a p chuySn gia de xac dinh trong so trong d a n h gia thfch nghi canh quan.
Nhom nghien ciiu cua Le Thi Mai Van (2016) da sxt dting phUdng p h a p n a y t r o n g vi$c tfnh
Vu Qu6c Buy, TS., Vifin Kinh t€ Viet Nam; U Thi TTiu Hi^n, ThS., Vien Nghidn cihi phat trien b^n vQng Vfing.
*Bai viS't la san ph^m ciia d^' tai cap Bo: "Xay dung va ap dung thii nghiem bo chi so Do thi xanh b Vi$t Nam".
. Nghiin aiu Kinh \$s611(486) • Thing 11/2018 33
Ap dung phuang phap
toan chi so ben viing lUu viic song Cau vdi 5 chi so t h a n h phdn la: chi so tai nguyen nUdc, chi so moi trUcing, dcii song, ehinh sach va tac dong ciia con ngUcii. Cac nghien ettu nay nhin chung con k h a ddn gian, nhieu vf du chi mang tfnh cha't minh hoa.
2. Cc* scf ly t h u y e t v a p h i i d n g p h a p n g h i e n ciiu
2.1. Md hinh phan tich thQ bac (AHP) ra quyet dinh da muc tieu
Mo hinh AHP dudc Saaty de xuat vao nhiing nam 70-80 cua the ky trUdc (Satty, 2008). •$• tUcfng chfnh cua phUdng phap nay la chia nho mot va'n di r a quyet dinh da muc tieu von phiic tap r a nhieu t h a n h phdn ddn gian hdn theo thii bac va tich hdp cac p h a n tich theo cac ye'u to' nay de dUa r a quyg't dinh cu6'i ciing. Ishizaka va Labib (2011) da tdm t a t qua trinh phan tfch thii bac nay t h a n h mot qua trinh 4 bUdc bao gom: (1) mo hinh hoa va'n de ra quyet dinh da muc tieu; (2) xac dinh trong so' cua cac chi so' t h a n h phan; (3) tfch hdp trpng so'; (4) phan tfch nhay earn.
Noi dung chi tiet ciia eac budc nay se dUdc trinh bay dudi day.
BQdc 1: md hinh hoa qud trinh ra quyet dinh.
Day la qua trinh ma ngUdi r a quye't dinh xac dinh ca'u tnic cua va'n de; xac dinh muc tieu chung, cac muc tieu t h a n h p h a n (hay cac tieu chi) va dm tUdng (phUdng an) xem xet.
Muc tieu chung dUdc the hien dudi mot tap hdp cac muc tieu t h a n h phan, hay cac tieu chf. Moi phUdng an se co nhUng gia tri nha't dinh theo titng tieu chf ne'u cac tieu chi do co HINH 1: Mo h i n h r a q u y e t
the ludng hoa (nhU chieu cao, can nang), hoac t h e hien dUdi d a n g dac tfnh hoac mot gia t r i theo mot t h a n g do nha't dinh. Thong thudng mot ca'u t n i e t h i i bae bao gom 3 I6p.
Ldp thii n h a t la muc tieu chung; ldp thti hai la cac chi so t h a n h p h d n va ldp thii ba la cac phudng an vdi cac dac t i n h khac nhau theo cac chi so t h a n h p h a n (Saaty 1986;). Hinh 1 t h e hien mo hinh q u a t r i n h r a quye't ctinh cila mot thi sinh khi lUa chpn dang k^ thi tuyln vao dai hpc. Gia sii t h i sinh do ed the Itta chon 1 trong 3 trUdng A, B va C de nhap hoc.
Cae trUdng nay dUdc goi la cac phUdng an hoac nhflng lua ehon. Thi sinh l\ia chon trudng hpe t r e n n h i l u tieu chi khae nhau nhU: (1) moi trUdng hpe t a p ; (2) kha nang lam viec sau khi tot nghiep; (3) moi trUcing sinh hoat, giao ti^p trong trudng; (4) kha nang t r u n g truyen. Viee danh gia trpng so' (hay miic do q u a n trpng) dUdc thUc hien 3 ca h a i ca!p dp. 6 ea'p do thii nha't, thf sinh se d a n h gia trpng so' cua tiing tieu chf lUa chon n h u moi trudng hgc t a p , moi trUdng sinh boat, k h a n a n g kiem viec, k h a nang triing tuyen do'i vdi tieu chf c h u n g khi chpn trUcfng.
M6i thi sinh khac n h a u co the cd nhiing danh gia khac n h a u v l mtic d6 q u a n trpng cua cac tieu chf nay. Ci ca'p dp thii h a i , thi sinh se c6 nhflng thong tin hoae dUa r a each danh gia ve dac tinh cua tiing trUdng A, B va C doi vfli tflng tieu chf b cap dp mot. Ket qua danh gia trpng so' cua cae tieu chf t h a n h phdn va dac tfnh cua tiing trUdng theo moi tieu chi se la cd sd de thf sinh liia chpn h o i c sap xep thii tu Uu tien doi vdi tiing t r u d n g cho quyet dinh se dang ky n h a p hpc cuoi cung cua minh.
d i n h c h p n triidng c u a t h i s i n h
MAi tru-(m« I I KhA nMnfi M m v i « r I I M A i m r A « « . i n h I I Kha nong tning j hpe >»p I I %*u khi t J t n g h U p { | ho^t, elao Mgp | I t u v ^
- N . ^ "
I TRU&iMc A^ I TRLr<aiNq B^ | TRtr6Nq c l
Nguon: Cac tac gia dila utn khung khai niem ciia Saaty (2008); Ishizaka yi c6ng so (2011).
34 Nghien cOuKinhlSs^tt (486) - Thing U/SOii
Ap dung phU0ng phap ,
BQdc 2: xdc dinh trpng sd' cua cdc chi so' thdnh phdn vd cdc dac tinh cua cdc phitdng dn
Noi d u n g thii h a i cua q u a t r i n h r a quyet dinh da muc tieu la xae dinh cac gia tri h a y dac tfnh cua cac phUdng a n va trpng so' cua cae mue tieu t h a n h p h d n ct cac ca'p dp p h a n tfch tUdng ling t r o n g q u a t r i n h r a quyet dinh. O ca'p do 2, khi xac dinh dac tfnh cua cae phUdng an, co n h i e u t r u d n g hdp eac dac tfnh nay dUdc xac dinh mot each cu t h e thong q u a mot so' chi so' dinh lfldng nha't dinh. Vf du k h a n a n g tim kiem viec lam cl cae trudng khac n h a u c6 t h i dfldc xac dinh bang ty le sinh vien r a trfldng co viec lam ciia tflng t r u d n g thdng q u a cac cuoc k h a o s a t phfl hdp. K h a n a n g triing t u y e n vao tflng trUcing cung cd t h e dUde d a n h gia thong qua cac p h a n xet chu q u a n cua tflng ea n h a n ve ket qua t h i t u y l n cua hp. Cac dac tfnh nhU
"moi trudng hpc tap", "moi trfldng sinh hoat"
ciing CO t h e dUdc xac dinh ci mot chflng mtic nao do thong q u a cac t h a n g do tudng flng, tfl dd CO t h i d a n h gia, so s a n h cac tieu chi n a y gifla cac trfldng. Tuy n h i e n va'n de se trb n e n phiic t a p hdn n e u cac dac tfnh dd khdng t h i do ludng true tiep ma p h a i t h o n g qua each so s a n h tUdng doi gifla cac phfldng an theo tflng tieu chf. Va'n de n a y ciing tfldng tti nhfl viec xac dinh mflc do q u a n trpng tfldng do'i gifla cac chi tieu t h a n h p h d n b ea'p dp 1 va dfldc giai quyet t h o n g q u a phUdng p h a p so s a n h tflng cap.
Xdc dinh ma tran so sdnh tQng cap Cac n h a nghien cflu t a m ly cho rang, mot ngfldi CO t h i d u a r a each so s a n h , d a n h gia chinh xac k h i chi p h a i so s a n h h a i doi tUdng vdi n h a u (so s a n h tflng cap) t h a y vi d a n h gia mfle dp q u a n t r p n g cua n h i e u do'i tfldng cung mot luc de dUa r a t r o n g so' e h u n g ngay tfl ddu (Miller, 1956; I s h i z a k a va cong sti, 2011). Phfldng' p h a p p h a n tfch thfl bac (AHP) cho r a n g , muon cd dUde sfl d a n h gia chinh xac gifla nhieu tieu chf hoac doi tUdng t h i n e n b a t ddu tfl viec d a n h gia tflng cap cae tieu chf hoac do'i tfldng do theo mot
t h a n g d a n h gia thd'ng nha't. Gia tri so s a n h nay dfldc t h e hien dfldi dang p h a n so' a/b p h a n a n h mflc do q u a n t r p n g tUdng doi gifla 2 tieu chi, t r o n g dd a va b la nhflng dai Ifldng t h i hien dac tfnh dfldc Ifldng hda ciia 2 tieu chf (Ishizaka va cong sii, 2011). Ma t r a n so s a n h tflng cap A khi do ed dang sau day:
trong dd °^0' la mflc do q u a n trong tUdng doi gifla tieu chf i va tieu ehi j thda m a n eac d i l u ki$n
a y = 1
'*ji,i • 1 v a °^i*i = ^iJ * ^J * a ij = 1
Dieu ki§n °J i dfldc goi la dieu kien doi xflng nghich dao (cac p h d n tfl cua ma t r a n A la nghich dao cua p h d n tfl doi xflng);
d i l u kign = & = « (/ * '^i t t h i hign tfnh bac cau trong d a n h gia mflc dp quan trpng gifla eac tieu chf, j va k va la mot trong nhflng tieu chudn d a n h gia tfnh nha't q u a n trong p h a n x6t cua tflng ca n h a n khi xac dinh mflc dp quan trpng gifla cae tieu ehi. Gia tri so s a n h tflng cap dUdc d a n h gia theo t h a n g d i l m 9 vdi eac gia t r i tUdng flng vdi cac p h a n xet sau day v l mflc dp q u a n trpng gifla h a i tieu chi (Saaty, 2008; Ishizaka va cdng sfl, 2011).
BANG 1. T h a n g d o c d b a n d a n h g i a m i i c d o q u a n t r o n g g i ^ a h a i t i e u c h i
Diem 1 3 5 7 9 2,4,6,8
Mure do quan trong tuong doi giura hai tieu chi
Quan trpng nhu nhau Quan trpng hem Quan trpng hon dang ki Quan trong htm nhiiu Quan trong hon rS't nhilu Cac miic tning gian giiia 1,3,5,7,9 NguSn: Saaty, 2008; Ishizaka va c6ng su, 2011; Ji va
Juang, 2003.
Nghiin ciiU Kinh t4s611(486) - Thing 11/2018 35
Ap dung phuang phap ,
Ndi mot each ddn gian, t h a n g do cd b a n ve mflc dp q u a n t r o n g tfldng ddi gifla h a i tieu chi dfldc xac dinh t h e o t h a n g 9 bac, theo do mflc dp q u a n t r p n g tfldng doi se t a n g dan tfl 1 (ne'u h a i t i e u chf q u a n t r p n g nhfl nhau) den 9 (neu tieu chi thfl nha't dfldc coi la quan t r p n g mot each tuy$t dd'i so vdi tieu ehi thfl hai). Cac gia t r i t r u n g gian tfl 2 de'n 8 dfldc ap d u n g t r o n g cac trudng hdp b giiia h a i trfldng hdp dac biet ndi tren. T h a n g do cd b a n t r e n dfldc sfl dung d§ xay dflng ma t r a n d a n h gia tflng cap A n h u da md t a b t r e n . Nhieu nghiSn cflu da sfl dung cac ph6p bien dd'i cd b a n d l chuyen danh gia theo t h a n g do ed b a n sang ma t r a n so s a n h nhU ph^p bien doi tuye'n ti'nh (Saaty, 1977), ph^p bien doi logarit, ph6p bien ddi can b a n g (Ishizaka va cdng sfl, 2011). Dac biet J i va J u a n g (2003) da sfl dung phep bien doi de d a m bao tfnh bac cdu cua ma t r a n so s a n h . P h a n Idn cac nghien cflu sfl dting t h a n g do cd b a n va gia thiet v l tfnh dd'i xflng nghich dao ma khong cdn sfl dung cac p h e p bien doi t r u n g gian d l xay dtjfng ma t r a n so s a n h tiing cap.
Xdc dinh trpng so' tQ ma tran so sdnh tQng cap
Sau khi cd dUdc ma t r a n so s a n h tflng cap A, vec td trong so' P = U^i>Pv - Pn) se dUdc xae dinh n h a m dam bao cho ma t r a n cae gia tri so s a n h tfldng dd'i m6i Vi dam bao t i n h c h a t bac c4u va t i n h nha't q u a n 6 miic do cao nha't. Hai phudng p h a p duoc ap d u n g rong r a i nha't di xac dinh trong so' tit ma t r a n so s a n h tiing cap la phudng p h a p t i n h gia t r i dSc t r u n g (eigenvalue) cua ma t r a n A do S a a t y (1977) de xua't va phUdng p h a p t r u n g binh n h a n (geometric mean) do Crawford va Williams (1985) de xua't. Theo p h u a n g p h a p ciia Saaty, vec to t r o n g so p se la v6c td dac t r u n g (eigenvector) cua ma t r a n A thoa m a n dieu kien Ap = ^p ; t r o n g do X la gia tri dSc t r u n g 16n nha't cua ma t r a n A.
Theo phuong p h a p cua Crawford va
Williams, t r o n g scT p la t r u n g binh nhan cua cac p h a n tii ciing dong cua ma tran A theo cong thiic s a u :
Ca h a i phfldng p h a p t r e n deu dam bao
\F
t i n h tfldng flng c u a t r o n g so' vdi ma tran so s a n h tflng cap. T r o n g trfldng hdp ma tr^n so s a n h ed tfnh nha't q u a n eao (theo tieu chf dUdc t r i n h b a y t r o n g p h a n tiep theo), t r p n g so riit r a tfl h a i phfldng phap nay khdng cd sfl k h a c b i e t Idn. Trpng so' cuoi cung se la eac t r p n g so' riit r a tfl cac phfldng p h a p t r e n va dUdc c h u ^ n hda (tong cac t r p n g s o ' b a n g 1).
Bdnh gid tinh nhat qudn cua trpng so De d a n h gia t i n h nha't q u a n trong so s a n h eua c h u y e n gia v l mfle dp quan trpng cua cac tieu chi, m o t h e thoiig chi so danh gia t i n h nha't q u a n e u a m a trstn so sanh vk t r p n g so' tUdng flng dfldc dfla r a v6i moi phfldng p h a p da n e u cl t r e n . Doi vdi phfldng p h a p t i n h gia t r i dac trflng (eigenvalue) do S a a t y (1997) de xua't, hS so nha't quan (consistency index) CI dflde xac dinh bang cdng thflc:
•n.— 1
t r o n g do X la gia t r i dac trUng 16n nh^t cua m a t r a n A; n la so t i e u chi.
Ty le nha't q u a n (consistency ratio) CR khi do dUdc xac d i n h theo cong thiJc CE=CI/RI vdi E I la h e so ngSu nhien t u o n g ling vai t t t n g t h a m so n (vi du vdi n=
3, RI =0,58; n = 8 , RI=1.41..) (Saaty, 1986).
Khi do n e u C E < 1 0 % t h i m a t r a n so sank dUdc coi la cha'p n h a n dudc ve t i n h nhS't q u a n ( I s h i z a k a va cong su, 2011). D61 v6i p h u d n g p h a p c u a Crawford va William, hS so nha't q u a n t r u n g b i n h n h a n (Geometric Consistency Index, GCI) dUdc t i n h theo cong thflc:
3 6
Nghi4n cHu Kinh tSs611(486) • Thing 1 //
Ap dung phuang phdp ,
GCl =
^ £ t < ; ( l 3 B « U - l o g [ ^ ) ) ' ( T I - 1 ) ( 7 I - 2 )
M a t r a n so s a n h dfldc coi la cha'p n h a n dflde ve tfnh nha't q u a n n e u GCI < 0,3147 vdi n = 3; 0,3526 vdi n = 4 va 0,370 vdi n >
4 (Aguardn va M o r e n o - J i m e n e z , 2003).
BQdc 3: tich hdp trpng so' trong tritdng hdp quyet dinh nhom
Cd n h i l u phUdng p h a p tfch hdp cac y kie'n k h a c n h a u c u a cac c h u y e n gia d l xay d u n g mdt t r o n g sd" e h u n g (Ssebuggwawo, 2009; Wu; 2012; Angiz, 2010; S t i r n , 2010;
J i va J i a n g , 2003). T h o n g t h u d n g cd h a i each tiep can c h i n h . Cach tid'p can thfl nha't sfl d u n g eac y kie'n d a n h gia cua cac chuyen gia (aggregation of i n d i v i d u a l j u d g e m e n t s ) cd n g h i a la td'ng hdp cac ma t r a n so s a n h tflng cap roi tfl dd xay dflng t r p n g so' c h u n g tUdng flng. Cach tiep can thfl h a i sfl d u n g eae tich hdp cac x^p loai Uu tien (aggregation of individual priorities) ed n g h i a la xay dflng mot t r p n g so' dai difin cho ca nhdm dfla t r e n cac bo t r o n g so cua tflng cac n h a n . Ddi vdi each tiep can thfl nha't, t r p n g so' tong hdp dfldc tfnh la t r u n g binh n h a n cua eae trpng-so" suy r a tfl cac d a n h gia cua tflng e h u y e n gia. Doi vdi each tiep can thfl h a i , cd t h e s^ dting ca h a i loai t r u n g binh n h a n hoSc t r u n g b i n h cong.
Lukovac (2016)va Ssebuggwawo (2009) deu d l xua't sfl d u n g t r p n g so ddi vdi d a n h gia cua tflng chuyen gia tiiy thudc vao mflc dp nha't q u a n cua d a n h gia. D a n h gia cua cac chuyen gia ed mflc nha't q u a n cao se ed t r p n g sd" cao t r o n g cdng thflc t i n h t r o n g so*
c h u n g va ngfldc lai.
BQdc 4: phdn tich dp nhay cdm Cac n g h i e n cflu da chi r a r a n g , t r p n g so tdng hdp p h u thuoc vao tflng d a n h gia so s a n h chi tiet tflng cap c u a tflng c h u y e n gia.
P h a n tieh n h a y cam dfldc t i i n h a n h n h ^ m d a n h gia mflc dp d'n d i n h cua thfl tU xep h a n g cac tieu chi d^i vdi eac k e t q u a d a n h gia b a n ddu va cd t h e tien h a n h cl ea ba
mflc: n h a y cam cua cac t r o n g s6^, ma t r a n so s a n h cua cac c h u y e n gia doi vdi cac tieu chf va m a t r a n so s a n h c u a cac chuyen gia dd'i vdi cac phfldng a n . Cdng thflc e h u n g dfldc sfl d u n g la xac d i n h h e so' n h a y cam tfl sfl t h a y do'i nhd nha't tfl cac d a n h gia cd sb cua cac c h u y e n gia, cd t h e ddn tdi sii t h a y dd'i thfl bac cua cac t i e u chf t r o n g xep h a n g chung. N h i l u n g h i e n cflu khdng de cap n h i l u den va'n de n a y k h i ap dung cac trfldng hdp t h u c t e .
2.2. Bp chi so Do thi xanh dp dung thii nghiem tai thdnh pho Vinh Yen Bp ehi sd' Dd t h i x a n h ap d u n g thfl n g h i e m t a i t h a n h pho V i n h Yen (bd ehi so Vinh Yen) dUde xay d u n g t r e n cd sd bp chi sd' do EIU va S i e m e n s de xua't (EIU va S i e m e n s , 2013). Bp chi sd' cua EIU va S i e m e n s Idn ddu t i e n ducte sxi d\ing nSm 2009 de d a n h gia t i n h t r g n g mdi trUdng t a i cac t h a n h pho* Idn b C h a u Au cung nhfl si^
cam ket cua nhflng dd t h i n a y t r o n g viec giam t h i e u tac ddng tdi moi trfldng t r o n g tfldng lai (EIU va S i e m e n s , 2009). Bo chi sd' n a y d a n h gia mflc dp "xanh" cua mdt so t h a n h phd' b C h a u Au t h d n g qua 8 n h d m ehi so t h a n h p h d n hao gom: (1) Ifldng p h a t t h a i k h i C 0 2 ; (2) t i e u t h u nSng lfldng; (3) cdng t r i n h ; (4) giao thdng; (5) nflde sinh hogt; (6) r a e t h a i va sfl d u n g da't; (7) eha't lfldng khong khf; (8) q u a n t r i mdi trflcing vdi 30 bien q u a n s a t cu t h i . Bd chi sd' Vinh Yen dUdc dieu c h i n h cho phfl hdp vdi t i n h h i n h thflc t e cua dia phfldng cung nhfl k h a n a n g dap flng v l t h d n g tin, sd' lieu. Do vay, bd ehi B6 n a y chi cd 7 chi so" t h a n h p h d n , k h d n g cd chi so' t h a n h p h d n giao thdng. Cac so lieu v l p h a t t h a i k h i carbon ciing k h d n g dfldc xem xet do quy md cua t h a n h phS^
nhd, k h a n a n g a n h hfldng cua cae v u n g l a n can d e n eae chi bao n a y c u a t h a n h pho eung cd t h i tfldng doi Idn va k h d n g cd n g u o n so h e u d a y du. B a n g 2 t r i n h bay m o t each k h a i q u a t eac chi so' t h a n h p h d n c u a bo chi so Do t h i x a n h ap d u n g eho t h a n h phd'Vinh Yen.
Nghien aiu Kmh lgs611(486) • Thing 11/2018 37
Ap dung phuang phip ...
BANG 2: B o c h ! s o D o t h i x a n h a p d u n g c h o t h a n h p h o V i n h Y«n stt
1
2
3 4 5
6
7
Cac chi so thanh phan Nil6c sinh hoat
Nudc thai Khdng khf Ch£it thai rin Nang lUdng Khdng gian xanh Mdi trucmg chung
Cac chi bao ctr sd
• Luong tiftu thu nii6c sinh hoat
• Chmh sach v^ ctip nu6c sach
• Ty It h6 dan duac c-Sp nudc sach
• Chfnh sach xii ly nudc thai
• Chait luong nu6c n g ^ (chi s6' WQI)
• Chfft luong khdng khi' (chi &6 AQI)
• Chi'nh sich giam thi^u 6 nhidm khdng khi vk ti^ng 6n
• Chi'nh sach xif ly chat thai rIn
• Nang luong 6iin tieu thu binh qudn hd
• Chi'nh sach tid't kiem nang luong va i5ng pho voi bi^n ddi khi hau
• M^t dd phu xanh
• Chi'nh sach bao dam khdng gian xanh
• Chinh sach mdi tnicmg
• Danh gia cha't luong mdi tnicfng
NguSn. Xay dung cua nhdm tac gia trdn co scr tham v ^ v6j cac ben lidn quan tai dia phuong.
Ve ed ban, bo chi so Vinh Yen dUdc xay diing tren cd sci cua bo chi so' do EIU va Siemens tinh toan eho mdt so' t h a n h phd' cl Chau A (EIU va Siemens, 2013). Cae chi bao thanh phdn trong Bd chi sd' Vinh Yen mang tinh td'ng hdp cao hdn so vdi Bd ehi so eua EUI va Siemens. Vi du trong chi so' t h a n h phan ve khdng khf, bd ehi sd' EIU va Siemens sfl dung den 3 ehi bao (bien) rieng re cho chSit lUdng khdng khf bao gom h a m Ifldng nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SOg), cac hat bui PMio. Trong khi dd, bd chi sd' Vinh Yen do nhdm nghien cflu d l xua't sfl dung chi so' cha't lUdng khdng khf tong hdp do Td'ng cue Mdi trfldng ban hanh nam 2011 tfl cac sd'liSu quan trde khdng khf. Tfldng tfl, chi so" cha't Ifldng nflde ngam eung dfldc sfl diong tfl cac so' heu quan trac tai dia ban eua t h a n h phd'Vinh Yen nam 2017. Bd ehi sd' nay du dinh se tinh chi sd' dd thi xanh eho 7 phudng ciia t h a n h pho. Do vay ve thtic ch^t, viec xay dting ehi so' Dd thi xanh cung cd t h i dUdc xem nhU mdt qua trinh phan tieh thfl bac vdi hai cdp do. 6 c^p dp hai, moi chi sd' thanh phdn se dfldc xae dinh eho tiing phudng tren dia ban eua t h a n h pho' tren cd sb eac so'lieu ca dinh lUdng va dinh tinh thu thap dUdc tai cac dia ban tUdng iing, dUa vao cac so hdu thdhg ke ehinh thfle hoac cac cuoc dilu tra khao sat. 6 cap dp thfl nhg^t, mdt chi
so tdng hdp phan a n h dac trflng "dd thi xanh"
eua tiing phfldng se dfldc xae dinh tren cd sb td'ng hdp cac so' h§u cua 7 chi so' thanh phdn.
Va'n de xae dinh trpng so" cua cac chi so' thanh phdn dfldc dat r a b chfnh giai doan tong hdp nay cua qua trinh p h a n tfch thfl bac.
2.3. Ap dung mo hinh phdn tich thQ bac trong viic xdc dinh trpng so cua cdc chi so' thdnh phdn cua chi so'Do thixanh
Mdt trong nhflng va'n de dflde de cap t6i trong khi xay dflng bd chi so' Dd thi xaiji thii nghiem tai t h a n h phd' Vinh Yen la viec xem xet d i n trpng so cua cac ehi sd' thanh phdn.
Trong nhieu cdng trinh nghien cflu b nflde ta khi de cap den mot bp chi so' ed nhieu chi so t h a n h phdn, ngfldi t a thfldng ap dung trpng sfl^
nhu n h a u doi vdi t a t ca cac chi so' thanh phdn.
Cac chi so' Nang hie canh t r a n h cSfp tinh (PCD.
chi sd Phat trien eon ngudi (Human Development Index), hoae chi sd' Ngheo da chilu mdi dfldc dua vao ap dung gdn day deu sfl dting each tie'p can nay. Ve m a t nguyen tae, mdi chi so t h a n h phdn cd t h i ed nhiing mfle dd quan trpng khae n h a u ddi vdi tiing thdi diem hoac ddi vdi tflng doi tfldng d a n h gia cu the. Trong trfldng hdp bd chi sd' Dd thi xanh, cac chi so t h a n h phdn cung cd t h e cd mflc dp flu tien khac n h a u trong cac trfldng hdp cu t h i . ChJoig
38 Nghiin aiu Kinh tes^ 11(486) • Thing 11/2018
Ap dung phuang phdp ...
b a n dinh hfldng p h a t trien do t h i x a n h cua Ngan h a n g P h a t t r i l n C h a u A (Lindfield 2012; Lewis, 2015) da chi r a r i n g trong giai doan p h a t trien b a n ddu cua mot dd thi, cac va'n de ve nudc sach, xfl ly cha't thai, thoat nUde can dUdc flu tien. De'n cac giai doan phat trien tiep theo, cac va'n de n a n g lUdng sach, giao thong x a n h se tie'p ttic la nhflng va'n de edn dfldc q u a n t a m hdn. D i l u dd h a m y trpng sd' eua cac chi sd' t h a n h p h d n cung cdn dUdc xem xet tUdng flng theo tflng giai doan p h a t t r i l n . Vide xac dinh trpng sd' eho eae ehi so nay do vay ed y nghia quan trong.
Nghien eflu cua c h u n g tdi tien h a n h thfl nghiem danh gia trpng so" cho 7 chi so' t h a n h phdn tfl thdng tin t h u t h a p qua bang hdi ddi vdi 2 loai dd'i tfldng la can bp quan ly cl Vinh Yen va mot so' chuyen gia trong linh viic p h a t trien ben vflng t a i H a Ndi. De d a n h gia mflc dp quan trong cua 7 chi so' t h a n h p h d n trong bp chi sd' Dd thi x a n h ap dung cho t h a n h phd' Vinh Yen, ehung tdi da la'y y kie'n 16 can bd b cac phdng ban/can bd cdp phudng b t h a n h pho Vinh Yen va 11 can bd nghien cflu cd kinh nghiem trong linh vflc p h a t trien ben vflng. Cac chuyen gia va can bd nay dfldc mdi t r a ldi cac c a u hdi v l mflc dp q u a n t r p n g BANG 3. K e t q u a d a n h g i a
tfldng ddi eua tiing cap ehi so theo t h a n g diem 9 nhfl da md t a b p h a n tren. Cac thdng tin t h u n h a n dfldc dfldc sii dung de xay dflng cac ma t r a n so s a n h tfldng flng va sau do dUdc dung d l suy r a trpng so' cua cae ehi so' theo ca h a i phudng p h a p gia tri dae trflng va phudng p h a p t r u n g binh n h a n nhfl da t r i n h bay b tren. Chi cd cae d a n h gia thoa m a n d i l u kien ve tfnh nha't q u a n mdi dfldc xem xet tie'p.
3. K e t q u a n g h i e n cxiu. v a t h a o l u a n 3.1. Ddnh gid ciia cdc chuyen gia Ke't qua xfl ly cac so' lieu phdng va'n cho tha'y chi cd 5 chuyen gia (trong tdng so' 11 ngudi dUde l^y y kie'n) va 4 can bd quan ly (trong tdng so' 16 ngUdi) d^t dflde yeu cdu v l t i n h nhSit quan trong d a n h gia cua minh (ty so'nha't quan CR khdng Idn hdn 10% va he sd' nha't quan t r u n g binh n h a n GCI khdng qua mfle ngfldng GCI=0,370). Nam ehuyen gia nay ed cae ma so' tUdng flng la CG4, CG5, CG7, CG9 va C G l l . Bd'n can bo quan ly vUdt dfldc ngfldng td'i t h i l u v l t i n h nha't quan cd cac ma so' CB2, CB14, CB15 va CB16. Cac ket qua d a n h gia cua tiing ngfldi dfldc phong va'n dfldc t r i n h bay b eac bang 3-5.
c u a c a c c h u y e n g i a (5/11) Phuong p h a p va chi so
Phuons phdp trung binh nhdn Kh6ng klii
Nu6c thai Nudc sinh hoat (Zh£t thai t i n Nang lutmg Khdng gian xanh Mdi trucmg chung
He so nhdt qudn cdp nhdn (GCI) Phuffng phdp gid tri ddc tnmg Khdng khf
Nudc thai Nudc sinh hoat Ch£t thai ran Nangluong Khdng gian xanh Mdi trucmg chung Gid In ddc tnmg (I) Ty le nhdt qudn (Consistency Ratio)
CG4 15.8 11.7 5.8 18.5 6,2 3,4 38,6 0,186
15.9 12.0 6,2 18.1 6,4 3.6 37,8 7.4 0.049
CG5 18,6 5.8 27.4
7.3 10,8 17,3 12,6 0.349
17.7 6.2 27.4 7.2 10,9 17,7 12.8 7.8 0.094
CG7 12,8 9.4 15,0 8.0 11,0 32,9 11.0 0,287 12.7 10.5 15.4 8.4 11.5 31,2 10.4 7.7 0.080
CG9 41,6 15,1 26.0 8.3 1.7 2.7 4.6 0J47
40.9 15.1 24.6 9,0 2,0 3.1 5.3 7.8 0,096
C G l l 6.5 17.9 6.5 17,9 6.5 38,3 6,5 0,025
6,5 17,9 6,5 17,9 6.5 38,4 6,5 7J 0,007
Trung binh 19.1 12.0 16.1 12,0 7,2 18,9 14.7
18.7 12.3 16.0 12.1 7.5 18.8 14.6
Do lech chu^n hda 0.702 0.394 0.640 0.470 0.532 0.867 0.940
0.802 0.416 0,593 0,403 0,593 0,829 0,241
Nguon: Ti'nh toan ciia cac tac gia dua trSn s6' Hdu phong vSn chuyfin gia.
Nghiin aiu Kinh t4s6l1(486) • Thing 11/2018 3 9
Ap dung phucrng phdp
Bang 3 trinh bay ket qua danh gia cua cac chuyen gia theo ca hai phUdng phap trung binh nhan va phfldng phap gia tri dae trflng.
C6 the thgCy rling tieu chf nha!t quan ap diing eho hai phfldng phap nay deu ddn d i n cac ket qua nhu nhau. Dilu dd cd nghia la ne'u mot danh gia cua chuyen gia dap flng dfldc tieu chf ve tinh nha!t quan theo phfldng phap gia tri dac trflng tM ndi chung danh gia dd cung dap flng dfldc tieu chf ve tinh nha't quan dat r a eho phUdng phap trung binh nhan. Tuy nhien trpng so' xae dinh theo hai phUdng phap ddi vdi cung mdt chuyen gia cd su chenh lech nhat dinh. Mat khac, ke't qua danh gia cua cae chuyen gia ve mflc dp quan trpng cua cae chi tieu theo cflng mdt phfldng p h a p cung ed sfl khac biet kha Idn. Mflc khac biet nay Idn nhat BANG 4. K^t q u a d a n h g i a c u a c a c
ddi vdi chi tieu "mdi trfldng chung" (dp lech chu^n hda la 0,940) va "khdng gian xanh" (do Idch chudn hda la 0,867) doi vdi phfldng phap t r u n g binh n h a n . Cdn doi vdi phUdng phap gia tri dac trUng t h i chi tieu "mdi trudng ehung"
cd sU khac biet Idn nhSit (0,829), tiep den la chi sd'"khdng khi" (0,802) (bang 3).
Ket qua d a n h gia cua can bd quan 1^ b dia phUdng cung cho bflc t r a n h tfldng tii. Cd 4 trong tong so' 16 phie'u hdi dat yeu edu v l tinh n h ^ t quan theo ca h a i tieu chf GCI va CR. Su khac biet gifla d a n h gia cua cac can bo theo cflng mdt phUdng p h a p cung nhU sU khac biet gifla cac trpng so' ciia tflng can bd theo hai phfldng phap cung dUdc t h i hien tUdng ttt nhu trudng hdp eua cac chuyen gia da trinh bay 6 t r e n (bang 4).
c a n b o q u a n l y d i a phxitfng (4/16) Phuong phap va chi so'
Phuffng phdp trung binh nhdn Khdng khi
Nudc thdi Nudc smh hoat Ch^t thai r ^ Nang luong Khdng gian xanh Mdi trucmg chung
He sdnhdl qudn cdp nhdn (GCI) Phuang phdp gid tti dac trung Khdng khf
Nudc thai Nudc sinh hoat Chift thai ran Nang luong Khdng gian xanh Mdi trudng chung Gid tri ddc tnmg (1)
Ty le nfld't tjudn (Consistency Ratio) CB2
23.8 16,1 24,0 6,8 10,2 11.0 8.1 0,i76
24,1 17,0 22.1 7,2 10.2 10,8 8.5 7,9 0,102
CB14
4.5 9,5 3,9 12.9 47,1 13,0 9,1 0,358
4,5 9,4 3.6 13.6 45.3 13.7 10,0 7.8 0.098
CB15
42,0 16.4 3.3 3,1 3.1 21.4 10,6 0,274
45.0 15,6 3.0 2.8 2.8 20.6 10,1 7.6 0,075
CB16
4.5 12.9 3,8 12,8 46.6 12.9 6.6 0,252
4.3 12.3 3,7 13,2 45.8 14.0 6,8 7,6 0,068
Trung binh
18,7 13.7 8.7 8.9 26,7 14.6 8.6
19.5 13,6 8.1 9.2 26.0 14.8 8.8
Do lech chuan boa
0.964 0.235 1.165 0.536 0.874 0.318 0.198
0,997 0.254 1.151 0,561 0.873 0.279 0,177
3.2. Kei qua tong hap cua cdc nhom ca n h a n dUdc s i d u n g de xac dinh trong so Trong buac tiep theo, cac trong so cita cac tong hop cua tttng nhom doi tUdng theo hai
40 Nghi6n cdu Kinh tdsd 11(486) • Thing 11/2013
Ap dung phuang phdp ...
phUdng p h a p : t r u n g binh n h a n ddn t h u d n va t r u n g binh n h a n cd trpng so'. Lukovac (2016) xae dinh trong so' cua tflng chuyen gia ty le nghieh vdi he so' n h ^ t q u a n trong d a n h gia eua chuyen gia dd. Trong nghien ctiu nay, chflng tdi cung ap dung nguyen tac tUdng tfl nhflng gidi h a n cac trpng so' n a y trong t h a n g
diem 100. Ndi each khac, trong so'cua chuyen gia '-Vf dUde xae dinh nhU sau;
= 1 0 0 • i n t l l - Ch
trong dd C/j ]a hd so' nha't quan cua chuyen gia va ^^ntin M la he so' nha't quan ngUdng; int(x) la p h d n nguyen cua x.
BANG 5. T o n g hoTp k e t q u a d a n h g i a c h u n g
Cac cbi so
Khdng khi Nudc thai Nudc sinh hoat ChJit thai ran Nang luong Khdng gian xanh Mdi trudng chung
Nhdm can bd Trung binh
nhan 17.2 19.4 8.4 11,1 23,5 20.4 12.2
Trung binb nhdn CO trong so'
17,0 20,9 5.3 10.6 22.4 23.8 12.2
Nhdm Chuyen gia Trung binh
nhan 19.9 14.0 16.5 13,8 7,6 14,4 13,8
Trung binb nhSn cd trong sd
12,3 17,0 9,5 18,7 8,1 20,4 14,1 Nguon: Tinh toan cua cac tac gia dua trfin s6 liftu phong vSh chuyftn gia.
Bang 5 dUa r a ket qua tdng hdp ve trpng so' cua cac chi sd' t h a n h p h d n eho h a i nhdm can bo va chuyen gia tfl cac ket qua d a n h gia ciia tiing t h a n h vien theo phUdng p h a p t r u n g binh n h a n thdng thudng (khdng ed trpng so) va t r u n g binh n h a n ed trpng so'. Do cac ehuyen gia cd he sd' nha't q u a n khac n h a u nen ket qua d a n h gia khong cd trpng so" va ed trong so" cd sfl khae biet dang ke. Them vao dd, ke't qua d a n h gia cua h a i nhdm can bo va nhdm chuyen gia eung cd sfl khae n h a u , dac biet la trong linh viic N a n g Ifldng va Cha't t h a i ran. Linh vflc N a n g Ifldng dfldc danh gia chi dfldc xep thfl 6 trong d a n h gia cua nhdm can bo nhflng lai la linh vflc quan trpng sd' 2 trong danh gia eua nhdm can bd, trong khi dd linh vUc nay lai dUdc cho la k^m quan trpng nha't trong danh gia eua nhdm chuyen gia.
Tudng tfl, linh vflc Chat t h a i r i n dfldc xep thfl 2 trong d a n h gia cua nhdm can bo, nhUng chi xep thfl 6 trong d a n h gia eiia nhdm ehuyen gia. Doi vdi eac trfldng hdp khi y kie'n chuyen gia ed sfl khac biet dang ke nhfl vay, ed the cdn den ed che d a n h gia theo k i l u bd p h i l u dong t h u a n , hoac sfl dung
phfldng phap Delphi nhieu bfldc theo hfldng eung ea'p thdng tin bo sung de eho cac chuyen gia cd t h e dieu ehinh eae d a n h gia eua minh mdt each nha't quan va p h u hdp hdn (Vidal, 2011; Taleai and Ali Mansourian, 2008;
Yonghong va cdng sU, 2012).
4. Ke't l u a n
Ke't qua ap dung thf d i l m tai Vinh Yen cho tha'y cd t h e sfl dung phUdng p h a p p h a n tich thfl hac A H P trong viec xae dinh trpng so" cua cac chi sd' t h a n h phdn trong Bd chi so' Dd thi x a n h t r e n cd sd so s a n h mfle dp quan trong tflng cap cua eae ehuyen gia. Tuy nhien, ty le cac chuyen gia cd ket qua danh gia dat mflc ehu^n td'i thieu ve tinh nhEit quan k h a tha'p, dac biet la ddi vdi can bd quan 1^ b dia phUdng eho tha'y, day la mdt cdng vide khdng he ddn gian, edn ed sfl chudn bi tot hdn cho nhflng ngfldi dflde hdi y kien ve ca noi dung k h a o sat va each tiep can. Kinh nghiem trien khai eiing eho tha'y, ca h a i phUdng p h a p gia tri dae trflng va phUdng p h a p t r u n g binh nhSn deu cd t h i dfldc sfl dung vdi ket qua k h a giong n h a u va hoan toan dong nha't v l tieu chf t i n h nha't quan.
Nghiin aiu Kinh tis611(486) - Thing 11/2018 41
Ap dung phuang phdp
T u y v a y , p h f l d n g p h a p t r u n g b i n h n h a n n e n dfldc sfl d u n g t r e n t h f l c t e c h o n h i i n g n g h i e n cflu s a u n a y v i d d n g i a n h d n v e m a t t f n h t o a n . V i e e t o n g h d p c a c d a n h g i a c u a t f l n g c h u y e n g i a t h a n h m d t t r o n g so' c h u n g cd t h e c d n dflde bd' s u n g b d i p h f l d n g p h a p D e l p h i n h i e u bflde d e d a m b a o t i n h d o n g t h u a n v a c h f n h x a c h d n d d i v d i k e t q u a d a n h g i a c u d i cflng./.
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Ngay nhan bai: 6-9-2018 Ngay duyet dang: 8-10-2018
42 Nghiin CIHJ Kinh li'sS 11(486) • Thing 11/2018
