Xu hLPang djch chuyen lai the so sanh tren the giai va nhijng ham y cho Viet Nam
TS. BUI THI MINH TIEP
Lai the so sdnh Id mot khdi niem cot loi cita kinh ti hoc khi nguai ta bdn din viec tham gia thuang mgi quoc te cua cdc quoc gia Bdi viet ndy nghien cuu xu huang dich chuyen lai the so sdnh a mot so nudc tren the giai tren cd hai phuang di$n ly thuyet vd cdc bdng chirng nghien ciht thuc nghiem Ket qud cho thdy a nhieu nuac tren the gidi, dgc biet la cdc nudc co toe do tdng truang kinh te tuang doi cao trong thai ky nghien cuu. co su dich chuyen tic lal the so sdnh ITnh sang lai the so sdnh dong. Mat khdc, sdn luang vd nhom hdng hoa co lai the so sdnh se trd nen da dgng han (chii: khong dan thudn la chuyen mon hoa han) khi thu nhdp binh qudn ddu nguai gia tdng.
Tit khoa: Lai the so sdnh tfnh, lai the so sdnh dong. xu hudng dich chuyen IQI the so sdnh.
I. Gidi thieu
Lgi thfi so sanh la can nguyen cua thuang mai qudc te, la yeu td chien lugc ciia cac qudc gia tren con duomg phat trifin va hgi nhap vai kinh tfi the gidi. Viet Nam kfi tir sau Ddi mdi kinh te da phat huy tdt lgi the so sanh cho tang truang kinh tfi nho vao viec khai thac ngudn lao ddng ddi dao, gia re va tai nguyfin trong nudc.
Kinh te dat nuac dat dugc cac miic tang truang an tugng, dua Vifit Nam tir mdt nuoc ngheo vugt len thanh mdt nuac cd mirc thu nhap trung binh vao nam 2008. Tuy nhien, cung ke tir thdi dilm nay, kinh tfi Viet Nam cd nhiing budc tang trudng cham va kem dn dinh, lam phat cao, tham hut thucmg mai va ngan sach... Viet Nam da phai thay ddi chifin lugc phat trien kinh tl, ddi moi md hinh tang trudng, cai each manh
•Dai hpc Hdi Phdng
me khdi doanh nghiep cd vdn nha nuoc va khuyen khich cac doanh nghiep frong va ngoai nudc dau tu vao cac ITnh vyc cd thl lam tang nang suat Iao ddng va tfch hgp vdn con nguoi trong boat ddng san xuat. Cimg vdi qua trinh phat friln nay, xu hudng dich chuyen lgi the so sanh cua mgt sd nganh kinh te Viet Nam ngay cang hien huu, hieu qua ciia viec khai thac lgi thl so sanh tiiih (dua fren tai nguyen va ngudn lao ddng gia re) ngay cang giam, ddng tiidi cho thiy sy cin thiet phai tang cudng diu tu vao cac ITnh vyc cd lgi the so sanh ddng (dya fren nang suit lao ddng, khoa hgc cdng nghe va vdn con ngudi...).
2. Cor sof ly thuyet ve Ioi the so sanh Khai niem ve lgi thfi so sanh lin diu tien duoc de xuat bdi nha kinh tl hgc ngudi Anh David Ricardo trong tac pham "Nguyfin ly cua kinh te chinh fri va thue khda" dya tren nin tang
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Xu hu'dng djch chuyin Igi t h l so s^nh.. Bill Minh Ti^p CO ban la kha nang san xuit cua mdt san phSm
vdi chi phi thip hon so voi san xuat cac san phim khac. Ong cung thl hien cai nhin mdi trorig vific tham gia thuang mai qudc te ciia cac qudc gia khi khing dinh rang ngay ca khi qudc gia khdng cd lgi thl tuyet ddi frong viec san xuat ra hang hda thi van cd the tham gia vao thuong mai qudc tfi va cd lgi dua vao lgi the so sanh.
Phat triln ly thuylt lpi the so sanh cua David Ricardo, cac nha kinh tfi hpc tieu bieu theo trudng phai Ricardo tilp tuc nghien ciiu ve lgi thl so sanh dya tren each tiep can mai hon va md rdng md hinh nghien cihi. Chang ban Haberler, Heckscher-Ohlin va Paul Krugman da van dung quy luat chi phi co hdi dfi nghien ciiu va giai thich lgi the so sanh, tir do khang dinh, mdt qudc gia cd lgi the so sanh trong vific san xuat ra san pham cd nang suat lao ddng tuong ddi cao hon hay chi phi co hdi thap hon so vdi cac qudc gia khac.
Dfin nam 1965, Balassa dfi xuat phuong phap do ludng lgi the so sanh, frong do ndi bat la viec de xuat sir dung chi sd do Iudng Lai the so sdnh hien hiru (RCA - Revealed Comparative Advantage) dya tren sd lieu xuat khau ciia qudc gia:
RCA, = (X„/X,„)(X,j/X,„) Trong do:
RCAy: Chi sd lpi the so sanh hifin hiiu trong xuat khau cua nudc / ddi vai nhdm san pham hang hday;
Xy : Tdng kim ngach xuat khau nhdm san pham hang hoaj ciia nudc /;
r Tat ca cac qudc gia, trir nudc /;
n Tat ca cac nhdm san pham hang hda, trir nhdm san pham hang hda j ;
Chi sd nay dugc ap dung dfi do ludng lgi thl so sanh hien hun 6 nhieu qudc gia tren thfi gidi.
Neu RCAy > 1 thi nudc / cd lgi thl so sanh ddi vdi nhdm san phim hang hday, va n^u RCAy *^
1 thi nudc i khdng co lpi trong vific sin xuit va xuit khiu nhdm san phim hang hoaj.
Dalum et al.(1998) va Laursen (1998) cho ring chi sd lgi thl so sanh hien hihi (RCA)'
khdng the hifin dugc lgi thl so sanh ngay ca ddi voi mdt nhdm hang hda, vi the, dua fren nfin tang la chi sd Igi thfi so sanh hien hiiu, hg dh xuat chi sd Lai the so sdnh hien hitu doi xiing (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantate - RSCA):
RSCAy = (RCAy - 1) / (RCA,j + 1) Gia tri cua RSCAy nam trong khoang tir -1 din 1 (-1 < RSCAy f 1). Nlu RSCA,j > 0 ham y nudc / cd lgi the so sanh frong nhdm san phim hang hday, ngugc lai, neu RSCA,^ < 0 thi nudc / bat lgi trong viec san xuat va ximt khau nhdm san pham hang hday.
Ngoai ra, cac nha khoa hpc cdn sii dung chi sd chi phi tai nguyen frong nudc DRC (Domestic Resouces Cost) de do ludng lgi the so sanh dya fren viec tfnh toan chi phi cac yfiu td dau vao trong nudc.
Y^QdiSd DRC.
(\ + FXPremium)(PibQi-Y,Qf'PM
Trong dd:
Qdi : khdi lugng cac dau vao frong nudc diing de sdn xuat san pham /;
Sd : gia xa hgi cua cac dau vao ndi tren;
OER : ty gia hdi doai chinh thirc;
Pib : gia qudc te cua san phim /;
Qi : khdi lugng san phim /;
Qfi khdi lugng cac loai dau vao nhap khdu sir dung de san xuat san pham /;
Pfb : gia qudc te cua cac dau vao nhap khau FX Premium: dp chenh giira ty gia hdi doai xa hdi va ty gia hdi doai chinh thuc (d cac nuoc dang phat trifin, chinh sach difiu chinh ty gia hdi doai gay ra do chfinh khoang 20%).
DRC la chi sd thudng dugc dimg dl danh gia Igi the so sanh ciia nganh hang. DRC bilu tiii tdng chi phi ciia cac ngudn lyc trong nuoc dugc Sli dung tuomg iing vcri 1 USD thu dugc tu san pham dem ban. Do dd, DRC nhd hon I cd nghTa la san phim cd lgi thl so sanh va ngugc lai.
DRC cang nhd thi lgi the so sanh cang cao va
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I Bui Minh Tiep Xu hudng djch chuyin Igi the so sanh..
chi sd nay dupc sii dung nhieu hon frong nghifin Cliu ve lgi the so sanh cua cac nganh hang thugc ITnh vyc ndng nghiep 6 cac nuoc kem hoac dang phat triln.
3. Xu hu-ong dich chuyen loi the so sanh ff mot so nu-d^c tren the gidi va Viet Nam
Ly thuyet ngoai thuang thudng lap luan cho rang cac nudc tim thay lgi thl so sanh trong vific san xuat cac san pham tuang ddi tham dung yfiu td san xuat ddi dao ciia hg (ching ban, san xuat hang hda tham dung lao ddng nhu d Viet Nam, san xuit hang hda tham dung vdn nhu d Nhat Ban). Ly thuyet tang trudng thudng lap Iuan rang thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi tang Ifin chii ylu nhd sy tich luy cac yfiu td san xuit la lao ddng, vdn va nang suat cac ylu td tdng hgp (TFP). Tren thyc tl, Igi thl so sanh khdng phai la khdng thay ddi va cimg vdi sy thay ddi tiieo chilu hudng tang diti mirc tiiu nhap binh quan diu ngudi d cac qudc gia, qud trinh dich chuyin lgi the so sanh cung dien ra ngay cang ro ret, cho thay mdi quan he giiia lgi thfi so sanh, tang trudng kinh te va kha nang gia tang vi thl qudc gia khi tham gia thuong mai qudc tl.
Tren the gidi va d Viet Nam, da cd nhilu cdng trinh nghien ciiu vfi lgi the so sanh, va thdi gian gan day, cac nghien ciiu vfi lgi thfi so sanh da cho thay xu hudng dich chuyen ngay cang rd net tir lgi the so sanh tinh sang lgi thfi so sanh dpng, tir viec chuyen mdn hda sang da dang hda mat hang xuat khau khi thu nhap binh quan dau nguoi ciia qudc gia tang len.
Bith - Hong Ling, PingSun Leung and Yung C. Shang (2001) nghien ciiu lpi the so sanh ve nganh nudi tdm 6 cac nudc chau A thdng qua phuong phap tiep can DRC. Ket qua nghien ciiu khing dinh, trong sd cac nha san xuat tdm chau A, Thai Lan, Sri Lanka va Indonesia cd Igi the so sanh tuong ddi manh trong tat ca ba thi trudmg chfnh la My, Nhat Ban va chau Au vdi chi sd DRC nhd hon 1 va ty le chi phi tai nguyen frong nudc (RCR) nam trong khoang 0,18 - 0,34. cac nuoc nay cd dugc lgi thl ldn hon cac nudc trong khu vuc do sir dung cac n^udn tai nguyen trong nuoc (nguon lao ddng doi dao va nguyfin lifiu diu vao) cd gia re hon tuong doi so vdi cac nudc khac.
Nghifin Cliu cua Amita Batra va Zeba Khan (2005) sir dyng chi sd RCA de nghifin cihi vfi lgi thfi so sanh cua cac nganh hang cho An Do va Tnmg Qudc. Kit qua nghien ciiu cho thay, An Dp cd lgi the so sanh d 41 nganh hang, trong dd cac nhdm hang ve bdng vai sgi, san pham va phu kien may mac, ca phe... la cd lgi thfi so sanh cao hon ca. An Dp va Tnmg Qudc cimg cd lgi thfi so sanh df mdt sd mat hang, tuy nhien cac mat hang cd lpi the nhat ciia Trung Qudc la san pham may tre dan, da giay va san pham det may, san pham du lich... Nghien ciiu cung khang dinh ca hai qudc gia deu cd lpi the so sanh d cac nganh san xuat sir dung nhieu iao ddng va tai nguyen trong nudc.
Ismail va cpng sy (2009) nghien ciiu vl tac ddng ciia chi phi tai nguyen trong nudc den lgi the so sanh ciia nganh thep thd d Iran thdng qua viec tinh toan chi sd DRC cho giai doan 2006 - 2008. Kfit qua nghien cuu cho thay, nganh thep thd d Iran khdng cd lgi the so sanh vao cac nam 2006, 2007 (DROl) nhung lai cd lgi thl so sanh d nam 2008 (DRC < I). Dilu nay khing dinh lgi the so sanh dugc tfnh toan trong nghien Cliu la tTnh, cd thfi tinh dugc cho timg nam nhung lgi thfi nay cd thl thl thay ddi theo thdi gian tiiy thudc vao su thay ddi cua cac thanh td dugc Sli dung de tinh toan DRC.
Boubaker DHEHIBI et Aymen FRIJA (2009) nghien ciiu lgi thfi so sanh cua cac san pham frai cay tuoi va rau xuat khiu cua Tunisia cho thay dau d luu la nganh hang cd lgi thl so sanh (DRC<1). Tuy nhien, kha nang canh tranh ciia nganh nay cd the thay ddi qua cac nam do cd sy bien ddng ve nang suat. Cac nganh hang cam, quyt va ca chua khdng cd lgi thl so sanh trong thdi gian nghien ciiu (DRC>I), tuy nhien chi sd DRC cua cac nganh nay lai cd sy cai tiln lien tuc qua cac nam do sy tac ddng ciia san lugng tang, gia yfiu td dau vao tuong ddi dn dinh va gia xuat khau san pham tang.
Nghien ciiu ciia Pham Thi Thu Tra va James Riedel (2003) sir dung chi sd RCA kit hgp voi so do ve dp tham dung vdn bpc lg cua cac san pham d cap dp SITC 5 chii sd, ddng thdi sir dung hai phuang phap hdi quy phi thdng sd
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Xu hudng djch chuyin Igi t h l so sanh.. Bill Minh Ti^p (LOWESS) va phuong phap hdi quy binh
phuang tdi thilu (OLS) dl phan tich vl lgi thl so sanh dgng d 20 qudc gia trong mdi tuang quan voi sy gia tang vl thu nhap d cac quoc gia dd. Nhat Ban la nudc nim frong mau nghifin ciiu ma cd sd lieu hoan chinh nhit va cd sy gia tang thu nhap binh quan dau nguai nhieu nhat frong khoang thoi gian phan tfch (1965 - 2010) nfin dugc cac tac gia sir dung nhu mdt dien hinh frong nghien ciiu. Kfit qua phan tich hdi quy cho thiy, lgi thl so sanh rd rang da phat huy tich cyc d Nhat Ban trong 50 nam qua, nhan manh lgi the so sanh dgng. Trong thap nien 1960, lgi thfi so sanh hifin hiru ciia Nhat Ban (the hien qua RCA) tap trung d nhung hang hda sir dung nhieu lao ddng theo thii ty: hai san, giay dep, cdng nghifip chl tao go, det, hang du lich, cac loai hang cdng ngbiep chl tao khac. Ngay nay cac nudc tucmg doi ngheo hon Nhat Ban dang cd lgi thfi so sanh ciing chinh d nhung san pham nay. Nghifin ciiu cung khing dinh, lgi thfi so sanh cua Nhat Ban dich chuyin tir nhihig san pham tham dung lao ddng sang nhiing san pham tuong ddi tham dung vdn d mirc thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi khoang 14.000 USD ddi voi toan bd cac san pham (nam 1972) va khoang 17.000 USD doi vdi hang cdng nghiep che tao (nam 1978). Thfim vao dd, vdi cac tinh toan cu the cho 20 nuac, nhdm tac gia cimg tim thay mdi quan he ddng bien manh cd y nghTa thdng ke giira dp tham dung vdn ciia lgi thfi so sanh va thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi, tham chf d cac qudc gia dugc nghien ciiu, sy chuyfin ddi lgi the so sanh tir san pham tham dung lao ddng sang san pham tham dung vdn dien ra d miic thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi thip hon dang kfi so vai Nhat Ban. Mat khac, nghifin Cliu nay ciing cho tiiay mgt phat hifin mdi trong sy dich chuyen lgi the so sanh 6 cac qudc gia, do la sy da dang hda cac mat hang cd lpi thfi so sanh khi thu nhap binh quan dau nguoi tang Ien. Phat hien nay dugc khang dinh them bdi mdt sd hpc gia khac nhu Klinger va Lederman (2006) va Imbs va Wacziarg (2003) khi cung quan dilm cho rang khi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi tang len lam gia tang cau ddi vdi nhieu loai hang hda hon se dan den da dang hda theo nganh.
Tri Widodo (2009) sii dung chi sd RCA va RSCA trong nghifin ciiu vl Lgi thl so sanh ddng d ASEAN+3 trong thdi ky 1976 - 2004.
Kit qua nghien ciiu cho thay cd thay ddi trong lgi thl so sanh o cac qudc gia dugc nghien cihi.
Sy thay ddi nay vira thfi hien d mirc lgi thfi so sanh, vira thl hien ca xu hudmg dich chuyen trong cac nhdm mat hang ma cac qudc gia cd lgi thl. Sy thay ddi nay dien ra qua 3 giai doan, va d giai doan thii nhat ciia qua trinh djch chuyin, lpi thl so sanh ma cac qudc gia cd dugc chil ylu dya vao cac san pham hang hda tham dung lao dgng va tai nguyen. Den giai doan tiep theo, Igi thl so sanh nhd vao viec khai thac ngudn lyc trong nudfc vdi cac san pham ndng nghiep truyin thdng bi syt giam, ddng thdi ciing vdi sy gia tang ve trinh do phat trifin, cac nudc cd xu hudng nhap khau nguyen lieu tir cac nudc khac cd gia re hon, sau dd xir ly vdi cdng nghfi cao va xuit khiu trd lai chinh cac nudc da cung cap nguyen lieu va phan cdn lai ciia the gidi. O giai doan 3, khi trinh do phat trifin va thu nhap binh quan d miic cao, cac qudc gia cd xu hudng chuyen dan lgi the so sanh sang cac nhdm mat hang sir dung ham lugng vdn va cdng nghfi ldn hon, sd lugng mat hang da dang hon.
O Viet Nam, nhieu cdng trinh nghifin cuu dugc ve lgi the so sanh ciia cac nganh hang xuat khau dugc thyc hien thdng qua viec sir dung chi sd chi phi tai nguyfin frong nudc (DRC) va chi sd lgi the so sanh hifin him (RCA). Cac ket qua cho thay, Viet Nam cd lgi the so sanh manh trong mpt sd nganh sir dung nhieu lao ddng va tai nguyfin, dac bifit frong ITnh vyc ndng nghiep, nguyfin Heu thd nhu: liia gao, ca, gd mgc, ca phfi... va cac mat hang nay ciing bgc Id sy thay ddi miic dp trong cac chi tieu do ludng lgi the so sanh khi tiiam gia thuong mai the gicri.
Mai The Cucmg (2005) tinh toan chi sd lpi thl so sanh hien hiru RCA cho 99 nganh hang ciia Viet Nam (Dien giai mdi ve chi sd lgi the so sanh hien hihi cua Viet Nam trong ASEAN) thdng qua 7 cdng thirc cu the cho tung nhdm ddi tugng. Ket qua nghien cim khang dinh, Viet Nam cd uu thfi va cd kha nang canh franh voi cac nudc ASEAN 6 hau het cac mat hang ddi dao vl lao dgng va tai nguyfin thien nhifin. Tuong ty, Nguyen Tien
2 2 - -NhOng vin di KINH T t VA CHINH TR! TH^ GIOI S6 12(224) 2014
Bui Minh Tiep Xu hud'ng djch chuyin Igi t h l so sanh,.
Trung tinh toan Chi s6 RCA cho ASEAN 6 (Viet Nam, Thai Lan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philipmes), kit qim cho tiiiy, ASEAN 6 cd lgi till trong 16 nhdm hang truyin thdng khi tham gia tiiuong mai the gidi. Thai Lan va Viet Nam cimg cd lgi tiifi d nganh hang liia gao, Viet Nam cd Igi the so sanh 6 cac hang hda sa cap nhu ca phe, cao su, ca, giay dep, hang may mac...
Bui van Trinh va Nguyen Qudc Nghi (2011) tinh toan Chi sd DRC cho nganh hang tdm sii nudi tham canh d ddng bing sdng Ciiu Long khang dinh nganh nay ludn cd Igi thl so sanh manh. Nghifin ciiu cung xay dung kich ban tang chi phi nhap khau va chi phi dau vao trong mcac toi 15% , khi dd DRC vin nhd hon 1, tiic la vin ton tai lgi the so sanh.
Le Qudc Phuong (2008) nghifin ciiu vl sy dich chuyfin co cau lpi thfi so sanh cua Viet Nam dya frfin vific sii dung Chi sd RCA vdi bd sd lieu thdng ke thuang mai qudc te phan theo hang hda theo Tieu chuan phan loai thuong mai qudc tfi SITC phien ban 3 (su dung miic phan loai I chir sd va 3 chir sd) cua Lien hgp qudc.
Ket qua nghifin ciiu cho thay su dich chuyfin co cau lpi the so sanh d Viet Nam tir cac san pham dya fren tai nguyfin sang cac san pham chfi tac, sau dd tir cac san pham chfi tac don gian dfin cac san pham chfi tac bac cao hon. Cu thfi, d thdi ky dau Ddi mdi, lpi the so sanh ciia Viet Nam chii yfiu dua vao cac san ndng san, khoang san va nguyfin lieu thd (RCA nam 1991 cua cac nhdm hang thyc pham ddng vat tuoi sdng, nguyen lieu thd, nhifin lieu - chu yeu la dau thd ian lugt la 4,3; 4,7 va 3,4) trong khi dd d cac nhdm hang cdng nghiep nhu giai khat, thudc la, dau mo ddng/thyc vat, hda chat, hang chfi tac, may mdc thilt bi... diu cd RCA <0, tiic la khdng cd lgi thfi so sanh. Dfin nam 1996, su dich chuyfin frong CO cau lgi the so sanh cua nudc ta da thay ddi rd ret, hang che tac hdn hgp da trd thanh nhdm hang cd lgi the so sanh voi Chi sd RCA do dugc la 3,0 - miic lgi thfi so sanh tuong ddi cao. Nhdm hang nay chii yfiu la san pham cua cdng nghiep nhe, sir dung nhieu lao ddng nhu nganh dfit may, giiy dep... Tir nam 1997 din nay, cimg vdi su giam xudng vl ty trgng cua cac nhdm hang cd lgi thfi so sanh la san phim
ndng san, nguyen lieu thd la su dich chuyen tang vfi ty frpng xuit khiu ciia nhdm hang che tac don gian (det may, giiy dep...) sang nhdm hang che tac bac cao hon (thifit bi phan phdi difin, xe may, xe dap...), tuy nhien qua trinh dich chuyfin dien ra tuong ddi cham. Mat khac, nghien ciiu nay ciing nhan djnh, ngoai su dich chuyfin trong co cau lpi thfi so sanh, pham vi lgi thfi so sanh cua Viet Nam ciing ngay cang dugc md rdng. Cac nhdm hang CO chiia san pham lgi the so sanh tang tCr 5 nhdm len 9 nhdm frong tiidi ky 1991 - 2005 va sd san phim cd lgi the so sanh ciing tang tir 33 len 47 trong cimg thdi ky nghifin ciiu.
4. Bai hoc kinh nghiem va ham y chinh sach eho Viet Nam
Trong bdi canh toan cau hda va khu vuc hda dien ra ngay cang sau rdng, mirc dp canh tranh giiia cac qudc gia ngay cang quyet liet khi tham gia vao thuong mai qudc te. Cimg vdi qua frinh nay, Viet Nam ddn nhan nhieu co hdi va cung rat nhieu thach thiic, ddi hdi phai nhan thiic rd Ipi thfi so sanh cua dat nudc va xu hudmg dich chuyfin Ipi the so sanh dfi cd nhung dilu chinh frong chien lugc phat trien cho phu hgp.
ca ly thuyet va thyc te nghien ciiu dfiu cho thay, lgi the so sanh se thay ddi theo thcri gian cimg vdi sy gia tang ve thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi d cac qudc gia. Ca cau mat hang xuit khau cung trd nen da dang hem va xu hucmg dich chuyen tir lgi thfi so sanh cap thap sang lgi the so sanh bac cao hon, hang hda chiia dung ham Iugng vdn va cdng nghfi Ion hom. Ndi each khac, cung vdi sy thay ddi vl frinh do phat triln va su cai thien trong miic thu nhap d cac qudc gia, qua trinh dich chuyen lpi the so sanh ciing difin ra. Nam bat quy luat nay la ca sd quan frpng de cac qudc gia hoach dinh chuong trinh phat trifin cho phu hgp vdi trinh do phat triln kinh te va miic dp cai thien trong thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi ciia dat nuoc.
Mgt difin hinh dugc nhac den trong cac nghien ciiu la trudng hgp cua Nhat Ban va 19 qudc gia khac trong cdng trinh ciia Pham Thi Thu Tra va James Riedel (2003) va trong nghifin ciiu ciia Tri Widodo (2009), la mgt tham chieu tdt cho Viet Nam trong viec nghien ciiu
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Xu huong dich chuyin Igi t h l so sanh.. Bui Minh Tiep vfi sy dich chuyen loi the so sanh va dfi xuat cac
chinh sach phu hgp. Mac du, nguong thu nhap binh quan dau nguoi 6 Nhat Ban dugc chi ro tuong ling voi timg budc dich chuyfin frong lgi the so sanh tir nhung san pham tham dung lao dgng sang nhung san pham tham dung vdn, thi d cac qudc gia khac ngoai Nhat Ban, qua trinh dich chuyfin nay dien ra sdm hon va d cac miic thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi tucmg doi thap hom, ddng thdi cac nhdm hang cd Ipi thl so sanh cflng trd nen da dang hon khi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi gia tang. Trong khi do, Viet Nam la qudc gia di sau, cd trinh dp phat trien tuong ddi thap hon va dang frong qua trinh bat kip vdi cac nen kinh tfi di trudc ca ve trinh dp phat trien va kha nang cai thien miic thu nhap. Do vay, day la bai hpc kinh nghiem cho Viet Nam frong viec xac djnh nhdm mat hang cd till thiic diy gia tang loi thl so sanh trong timg chang dudng phat triln ciia dit nuac, tir dd gia tang thj phin va vi thl cua qudc gia khi tham gia thuong mai qudc tl.
Nghien ciiu vl lgi the so sanh ciia Viet Nam cho thay, ngudn lao ddng ddi dao va tai nguyen thien nhifin la hai yeu td co ban tao ra lpi thl so sanh, va day chi la Igi thl so sanh tTnh, nlu khdng cd kha nang tai sinh thi se mit din di.
Mat khac, ngudn lao dpng ddi dao nhung yfiu kem vl ky nang va trinh dp chuyen mdn din din su mit din Igi thl khi tham gia vao phan cdng lao dgng qudc te, cac san phim cd lgi thl so sanh dua tren cac ylu td san xuit thuan lgi sin cd nhu vay cung khdng mang lai nhilu gia tri gia tang khi tham gia thucmg mai toan ciu.
Tir xu hucmg dich chuyin lgi thl so sanh, kit hgp bai hgc kinh nghiem tir cac qudc gia di trudc, vai thyc tl ngudn Iuc va trinh dg phat trifin cua Viet Nam, cin phai cd nhiing dinh hudng^cu thl nhim tilp tuc phat huy Igi thl so sanh sin cd, ddng thdi thuc diy chuyin ddi din sang lgi thl so sanh ddng, Cu thl la:
Kiem soat va han chl nhdra hang xuit khau la san phim d dang nguyen lieu thd, dich chuyen din sang san xuit va xuit khiu san pham tich hgp hatn lugng khoa hgc - cdng nghfi, ham Iugng vdn cao hon (san phim tinh
che, san pham da xii ly bang cdng nghe cao, nganh cd gia tri gia tang ldn nhu difin, difin tli...) thdng qua thuc day cac chinh sach khuyin khich va thu hiit vdn dau tu vao cac nginh cdng nghiep che bien va tinh che.
Dinh hudng chfnh sach phat triln nganh cdng nghiep phu trg dl ho trg giam din boat dgng gia cdng hang xuat khau nhu hien nay.
Viet Nam trong nhieu nam qua da tdn dung ngudn nhan lyc ddi dao va xuit khiu nhifiu san pham gia cdng, sd lieu the hien kim ngach xuit khau tir hang gia cdng cao nhung lai cd gia tri gia tang thap. Da dfin liic can thay ddi chfnh sach dfi cai thien tinh frang nay.
Dinh huong tang co cau nganh hang xuit khau, dac biet ddi vdi nhung san phim hang hda cd kha nang gia tang lgi the so sanh khi tiiu nhap binh quan dau nguai ciia qudc gia tang Ifin.
Can cd chien lugc phat triln ngudn nh^
lyc, nang cao chat lugng lao ddng dap iing yeu ciu hpi nhap va phat trifin, dac bifit sau thang 5/2015 khi Viet Nam gia nhap Cgng ddng Kinh tl ASEAN (AEC) vdi viec ty do hda di chuyin lao ddng cd ky nang, lgi till so sanh ciia Viet Nam cd thl sut giam 6 cac nganh sii dung nhilu lao dpng va tai nguyen trong khi dd lai chua kip dich chuyen hoac khdng cd dieu kifin dfi dich chuyin sang san xuit cac san pham hang hda tham dung vdn ldn hon va tfch hgp ham lugng khoa hpc - cdng nghe cao hem. Dilu nay din din vific vira khd duy tri lgi tiifi so sanh hien cd, Iai vira mit di CO hgi gia tang lgi thl so sanh a nhfing nie thang phat trien tiep theo frong tuong lai.
5. Ket luan
Trong khoang 20 nam qua, hdi nhap kinh tl the gidi da tao ra nhieu ddng Iyc din dit tang trudng va phat triln kinh tl Viet Nam. Cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai da kit hgp vdn ciia minh vdi lao ddng ciia Viet Nam va cac yfiu td diu vao dfi san xuat phuc vu thi trudng ndi dia va thl gidi, san lugng tieu thu ngi dia va hang xuit khiu gia tang ca vl sd lugng va chiing loai. Tuy nhien, dil xuat khau tang va cd xu hudng dich chuyin sang san phim chl tac tang len nhung gia tri gia tang va nang suit trong khu vuc xuit khiu ciia Viet Nam cdn tiiip, san phim xuit khiu vin
-NhOng vin di KINH T £ VA CHJNH TRj THt Giai S6 12(224) 2
Bui Minh Tiep Xu hudng djch chuyin Igi t h l so sanh..
dya chii yfiu vao cac nganh sir dung nhieu lao ddng va tai nguyen, ddng thea lien ket tryc tifip giua cac nganh xuit khiu rit rai rac. Viec cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai quan tam tcri Viet Nam van dua chu yeu vao siic hap dan tir gia nhan cdng re. Tat ca nhung .dieu nay thuc su trd thanh mdt thach thiic ldn cho Viet Nam khi mdi trudng thuong mai toan cau dang ngay cang thay ddi va gia tang siic canh franh
Mat khac, cac nganh san xuat dugc nhac den trong cac nghifin ciiu v l loi t h l so sanh tai Viet Nam mdi chi the hien Igi thfi so sanh tlnh. Lgi the so sanh cd the thay ddi do tac ddng cua quy luat phat trifin khdng ddng dfiu ve ky thuat.
Thuc tfi nghifin ciiu cho thay, cac nudc thudc tiifi gioi thli ba frong khi sir dung lgi thl so sanh da khdng ngung hgc tap, sang tao lgi thl so sanh mdi va khdng ngimg khac phuc the yeu kem cua minh, tir do nang cao kha nang canh franh khi tham gia thuong mai toan ciu. Do vay, mgt mat can phat huy lgi the so sanh hien
cd, mat khac cin phai xay dung chien lugc dfi phat trien cac lpi thfi so sanh mdi - lai the so sdnh dong.
c a Iy thuyfit va thuc tfi nghien ciiu dfiu cho thay cd sy djch chuyin lgi the so sanh d cac qudc gia fren thfi gidi tir lgi the so sanh cdp thap sang Igi the so sanh cap cao - lgi thfi so sanh dgng. Ddng thai, cimg vdi su dich chuyen nay, xu hudng thay ddi Igi thl so sanh d cac qudc gia cdn the hien trong viec da dang hda mat hang cd lgi thfi so sanh hon khi thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi 6 cac qudc gia tang Ifin. Nam bat dugc cac ndi dung nay, kfit hgp vai trinh dp phat trien kinh tfi va ngudn lyc ndi tai cua dat nudc, Viet Nam can phai cd nhimg dinh hudmg chinh sach phu hgp moi cd the vira duy tri dugc lgi thfi so sanh hien cd, ddng thdi phat trifin lgi the so sanh ddng, dap iing nhu cau phat trien, hgi nhap va gia tang vi the canh tranh qudc gia khi tham gia thuang mai the gidi*
Tai lieu t h a m k h a o :
1. Amita Batra va Zeba Khan (2005): Revealed Comparative Advantage: An analysis for India and China, Working paper No. 168. littp://w\vw.icrier.org/pdf/wp 168.pdf
2. Bith-Hong Ling, PingSun Leung and Yung C. Shang (2001): Comparing Asian Shrimp Farming: The Domestic Resouce Cost (DRC) Approach, Economic and Management of Shrimp and Carp farming in Asia. A Collection of Research Papers based on the ADB/NACA Farm Performance Survey, Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia (NACA), Bangkok, Thailand.
3. Boubaker DHEHIBI et Aymen FRIJA (2009) Impact of Domestic Resource Costs on the Competitiveness of Tunisian Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Products Exports, Paper to be presented at the at the Intemational Conference "Energy, Climate Change and Sustainable Development".
4. Bill Van Trinh va Nguyen Qudc Nghi (2011): Xac dinh lai the so sdnh nganh hang torn sii nuoi thdm canh d dong bdng song Cim Long, Tap chi Khoa hoc, so 3/2011, tr, 65-73.
5. Ismail, Abdul Ghafarand Gharleghi...{2009): T/ie Impact of Domestic Resource Cost on the Comparative Advantages of Iran Crude Steel Sector, MPRA Paper No. 26381, posted 4. November 2010, http://ww.mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26381/
6. Le Qudc Phuong (2008): Su dich chuyen ca cdu lai the so sdnh cua Viet Nam: Phdn tich, nhdn dinh va khuyen nghi. Tap chi Quan ly kinh te, sd 23, tr.l2 - 21.
7. Mai The Cudng (2005): Dien gidi mdi ve chi so l(ri the so sdnh hien hint ciia Viet Nam trong ASEAN.
Tap chi Nghien cim kinh te, so 6/2005, tr. 49 ~ 56.
8. Paul R.Krugman - Maurice Obstfeld (1996): Kinh te hoc quoc te: ly thuyet vd chlnh sdch, NXB. Chinh tri Quoc gia. Ha Npi.
9. Thi Thu Tra Pham, James Riedel (2003): An Empirical Analysis of Comparative Advantage Dynamics, Vienna Institute of Demography, accessed on November 3, 2013, <
http://www.freit.org/WorkingPapers/Papers/Other/FREIT633.pdf>.
10. Tri Widodo (2009): Comparative Advantage in the ASIAN+3, Joumai of Economic Intergration, 24 (3) pp. 505 - 529.
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