TAP CHi CONS THirOiNG
ANH Hl/dNG CUA CUOC
CHIEN TRANH THlJCfNG MAI MY - TRUNG DOI veil NEN KINH TE VIET NAM
• N G U Y I N TH! THU TRANG
T 6 M TAT:
Cudc chid'n tranh thUdng mai My - Trung Qud'c dang tae ddng khdng nhd de'n nen kinh te the' gidi ndi chung va Viet Nam ndi ridng. Bai vid't nay tap trung phan tich nhffng tdc ddng ciia cudc chid'n tranh thUdng mai My - Trung Qud'c den nen kinh te' Viet Nam.
Tuf khoa: Chie'n tranh thtfdng mai, thUdng mai My - Trung, kinh te' Viet Nam.
1. Anh hff^'ng cua chie'n tranh thtfdng mai dd'i vdi My va Trung Quo'c
1.1. Ddi vdi My
Dd'i d^u vdi Trung Qud'c, ddng nghia My cha'p nban vide 545 mat hang My xud't kha'u sang qud'c gia "ty ddn", tri gia 34 ty USD, se bj Trung Qud'c giang thud' dap tra. Nhffng mat hang nay bao gdm tff xe bdi, may bay, tdi... hat ddu tUdng - mdt trong nhffng san pham ndng nghiep xua't khau chii dao eua My.
Ddn dp thud' ciia My khid'n hang boa Trung Qud'c nbdp kha'u vao My se bi dp mffc thud' cao, khie'n gia cac mat bang tidu dung d My tang Idn, nhUng khdng gdy hau qua Idn. Cudc chid'n thUdng mai khde liet dang dien ra cbdc chan se anh budng dd'n dii tiln eiia ngffdi My, nhffng bo se khdng phai tra gid qud ddt, trong khi ngUdi lao ddng My cd the dffdc hffdng Idi tff cupc chie'n.
Trong trUdng hpp chie'n tranh thUdng mai todn dien, nhieu kba nang My se Idm vao suy thoai trong nam 2019 vdity le thd't nghidp lang gd'p ddi.
Trong mdt cudc chie'n tranh thUdng mai, nUde nbap khau se chiu it thiet hai hdn nUdc XK. Cupc chie'n nay se khie'n cdc DN Trung Qudc gap nhilu khd
khan hdn so vdi My, bdi My la ban hang Idn nha't eiia Trung Qud'c, chid'm 18,4% kim ngaeh XK ciia nffdc nay. Dd la ly do ma ngay sau khi ebid'n tranh tbffdng mai no ra, ddng USD len tuc tdng nhe, cdn ddng nhdn ddn te lai ma't gia.
1.2. Ddi vdi Trung Quoc
Trong cupc chie'n tranh thUdng mai giffa hai cffdng qudc kinh te', ed the tha'y My ludn hanh ddng trUde cdn Trung Qud'c la ben dap tra, phan ffng vdi mdi ddng thai cua My. Trung Qud'c ludn khang dinb khdng phai la ben khdi mao chid'n tranh tbUdng mai.
Trung Qud'c ro rang khdng mud'n chie'n tranh thtfdng mai vdi My khi kim ngaeh tbffdng mai hai ben dang ed Idi cho Trung Qud'c vd nffdc nay dang ticb IQy nbilu thanb tffu cdng nghe tff My trong qua trinh giao thUdng. Mdt cupc chie'n Uanh thUdng mai vdi My se khid'n cdc doanb nghiep Trung Qudc gap nhilu khd khan trong vide tieu thu kinh doanh sau khi nhdp khau vdo My.
My da dffa 34 ty USD hang hda xuat kbd'u tff TrungQud'c vao nhdm bi ddnh thue'257c, bao gom nbilu mat bang nbU mdy mdc, thie't bi didn tff va cdng nghe cao. Va vdi ddng tbdi ddp tra khi danh
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thud' 34 ty USD hang hda xud't khIu tff My, Trung Qudc se phai chuan bi ddn nban ddn danh tra tie'p theo tff My nhff da tffng dffdc tdng tbd'ng Trump khang dinh: "Ne'u Trung Qudc cd hanb ddng tra dua, se cd thdm 400 ty USD bdng boa ciia Trung Qud'c bi danh thud'".
Td Nam Hoa Nhat Bdo nban dinh, Trung Qud'c bidn ebffa mua du bang hda tff My de cd the nam Idi the' khi chie'n tranh tbffdng mai nd ra. Hdn nffa, rd't nbilu hang hda Trung Qud'c dp thud', dupe eac doanh nghidp My thud gia cdng ngay chinh tai Trung Qud'c nen trong nhilu trudng hdp, Trung Qud'c dang lU lam kbd cae doanb ngbidp ndi dia.
O chieu ngUde lai, cac doanh nghiep Trung Qud'c khdng tao qua nhieu anh bffdng tren da't My, do do Idi tbd' trong chie'n tranh thtfdng mai vdn dang nam trong tay My.
Tuy nhidn, vdi vi the'la trung tam san xua't ciia the' gidi, cac doanh nghidp Trung Qud'c vdn ra't quan trpng trong chudi cung ffng eua ede doanb nghidp My. Nbd vdy, Trung Qud'c vdn cd nhffng la bai nhd't dinh ed tbi dung dd'n kbi chie'n tranh thUdng mai xau di.
Vdi mffc dp pbu thupc vao xud't khau Idn hdn, nln kinh td' Trung Qud'c cd kba nang se chiu anb hffdng bd't ldi nhieu hdn so vdi My trong cudc chie'n tbffdng mai leo thang giffa bai nffdc. Trong dien bie'n mdi nhd't cua cupc chie'n tbUdng mai. My ap tbue bd sung 10% Idn 200 ty USD bdng hda Trung Qud'c, cdn Bdc Kinh dp thud'bd sung 5-10%
len 60 ty USD bang My.
Ngdn hang JPMorgan Chase thi dff bdo td'e dp tang trffdng kinh te' ciia Trung Qud'c se gidm 0,6 diem phan tram nam 2019 do sff suy giam cua hoat ddng XNK bdi thud" bd sung ma My ap Idn 200 ty USD hang Trung Qud'c dffdc ndng Idn 25% tff ngay 1/1/2019.
Tbeo nha kinh te'hoe Ethan Harris, thi nd'u bai nffdc tang tbue' len loan bp hang bda ciia nhau, anh hudng de'n Trung Qud'c se Idn ga'p 4 Ian so vdi anh hUdng dd'n My, vi gia tri xud't khau eiia Trung Qudc {sang My) Idn gd'p 4 lan gid tri nbap khau cua hp {tff My)... Thue quan dffdc dp bd sung tinb dd'n thdi diem nay cd the khie'n td'e do tang trffdng kinh td'cua Trung Qudc hut di khoang nu'a diem %...
2. Anh htfoTng cua chid'n tranh thu'dng mai dd'i vdi kinh te thd' gidi
Quy Tien te qud'c te' {IMF) vffa ba dff bdo tang trudng toan eau Ian dau Udn Uong bdn 2 nam, dong tbdi dUa ra nhffng phan tich eho thd'y cudc chie'n tbUdng mai leo thang giffa My va Trung Qud'c se gay thidt hai Idn tdi ca hai nln kinh td' Idn nhd't the' gidi trong nam tdi, vdi thiet hai ndng ne hdn rdi vao Trung Qud'c.
Bao cdo Trien vpng kinh td'the' gidi do IMF dUa ra bdm 9-10 nhdn dinb nen kinh td'todn cause tang trudng 3,7% trong nam 2018 vd 2019 gidm 0,2%
so vdi dUbdo.
Khdi Itfdng giao dich thUdng mai todn cau nam 2018 cdn 4,2% vd 4% trong ndm 2019 - giam tUdng ffng 0,6 vd 0,5 diem phdn trdm so vdi Udc tinh trUde do. Tdng trUdng kinh td' ciia My vd Trung Qud'c cung cbdm bdn eho vdi du bdo ban dau, lan lUdt dat 2,9% va 6,6% trong nam 2018 trUde khi giam cdn 2,5% va 6,2% trong nam 2019 vdi ly do anb hudng ciia xung dot thtfdng mai.
IMF cho rang ne'u chie'n tranh ihUdng mai My - Trung tid'p tuc bi leo thang, anb hUdng de'n tang trudng todn eau va dd'i vdi ed ca'u san nghidp thd' gidi se rd't Idn. Khi cudc chid'n tranh diffdng mai My - Trung ebffa tim tha'y hoi kd't. Men nay, didn bid'n tbffdng mai giffa Bac Kinh va Washington ngay cang trd nen cdng thang, dilu nay se de dpa gay anh hudng tdi nhilu nen kinh te khde. Cd die' khang dinh chac chdn rang nhffng tdn thd't nang ne - vi ddng cua chie'n tranh tbffdng mai nay se Id rd vdo nam 2019 the hien d sff tdng trffdng cua bai nln kinh te' Idn nba't thd' gidi du nd bung nd tff 2018.
Cudc ebid'n thUdng mai giffa bai nen kinh te' dffng dau the' gidi se gay dnh bffdng manh me tdi nhieu qud'c gia, dac bidt la nhffng nln kinh td'mdi ndi. Cu the:
- Nhffng ba't dn do cdng thang thffdng mai My - Trung se tdc ddng dang ke' dd'i vdi 5 nffdc ASEAN gdm cd Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thdi Lan va Viet Nam. Dff bdo tang trffdng d mffc 5,3% nam 2018 va giam nhe xud'ng 5,2% trong 2019. Dd'i vdi Nhdt Ban, mffc tang GDP cbi eon 1,1% trong 2018.
Kbu vffc My Latin, nhff Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,., dff bao tang Uffdng gidm, cdn Venezuela dang sa lay trong kbung hoang kinh td' se bffdc vdo
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nam thff 6 ctia cudc suy tbodi, vdi mffc lam phdt dff dodn ldi 10,000.000% vao nam sau.
O chau Au, khu vffc dong lien chung Eurozone cung bi anh hffdng trong bd'i canh ba't dn tbffdng mai va mdi lo ngai ve tie'n trinh Anh rdi khdi Lien minh chau Au (EU) cd nguy cd gdy tbiel hai dang ke ebo nln kinh td' chau luc. Cu the, Quy Tiln Id tbd' gidi (IMF) ddnh gia tang trUdng trung binb ciia Eurozone se ebi dat 2% trong ndm 2019, thd'p bdn 0,2% so vdi Udc tinh bli thdng 7 ndm 2018 va se tie'p tuc giam xud'ng cdn 1,9% trong nam tdi. Dffc, Phdp va Anh idn Iffdt dff bao tdng irudng kinh Ed' cd xu budng giam.
3. Anh htfoTng ciia chid'n tranh thiftAig mai dd'i vdi Vi^t Nam
Anb budng iff cudc ebid'n tranh ihUdng mai My - Trung vl ly thuyd't cae nUdc trong khu vUc chau A se ed cd hdi bii dap vdo chudi cung ffng bang hda cho My thay Trung Qud'c, thuc td' phffc tap bdn nhieu bdi da so' bang bda xua't di ciia eac nUde nay dffdc Trung Qud'c nbap khau rdi gia cdng ban sang My. Nhu vay, khi cudc chie'n tranh thffdng mai My - Trung bat ddu thi loan bd ebudi cung ffng tai chau A se bi tdn thUdng, Va dUdng nhien Viet Nam se chiu anh hudng rd't Idn, bdi Viet Nam vdn cdquan he kinh te' thffdng mai sau rdng vdi ca 2 nffdc va du bao se tac dong tdi xud't nhap khd'u hdng hda ciia Viet Nam theo ca hai chieu bUdng ed ldi va khdng cd ldi.
+ Ve chieu hUdng cd Ipi:
Thd nhdt, Vidt Nam se ed cd hdi nhieu hdn bdi ca Trung Qud'c bay My deu cd the lUa chpn chuyd'n hUdng dau tu, sau dd xua't khau hang hda tff cac nffdc trung gian nbu Viet Nam sang nffde kia de' khdng phai chiu mffc dp tbud'cao.
r/ii? hai, la tao ra cd hdi cho cac nffde xung quanh, trong dd ed Viet Nam Do cd kba ndng dau tff FDI eua Trung Qud'c vd My vao Vidt Nam se gia tang de' thdng qua dd giam thiet hai eiia cudc ebid'n tranh thUdng mai vd cd the' tie'p tuc trong tbdi gian tdi. Mat kbde, ndng thud' cao se tao ra Id hong trong thi trUdng eiia ea My va Trung Qud'c. Trong khi Trung Qudc phai chiu thud' sud't cao khi xua't khd'u bang bda sang My, ddn dd'n ma't tinh canh tranh, ma'l thi phdn tbi Viet Nam cd tbd' tan dung tbdi cd gia tang hang xua't kha'u.
Thd ba, tao eho Viet Nam nhieu cd hpi gia tdng xua't khau vdo thi trUdng Hoa Ky. My ca'm nbdp khau vdi hang bda mdy mdc, thie't bi didn tff, cdng nghd cao cua Trung Qud'c nhUng nbu cau tidu tbu eiia ngUdi My vdn cdn. Viet Nam se cd cd hdi rd't Idn dd' tbay Trung Qud'c bo sung nhdm hdng bda nay tai My. Nhffng vdi dieu kien tien quye't Id bang hda Vidt Nam pbai bi chiu mffc thud' tbd'p hdn hang Trung Qud'c, ddng thdi bdng bda pbai thUe sff cd cha't Iffdng Ngodi ra, chung la can bie't chdp Id'y thdi ed dd' budn ban vdi Trung Qudc, bdi chac chan, Trung Qud'c se tim each lieu thu hang hda khd xud't khau sang My va sang eac thi trUdng khac. Do dd, kha nang doanh ngbidp Vidt Nam cd cd hpi nbap khau nguydn lidu hang bda gia re nay iff Trung Qud'c la rd't cao, bdi Trung Qud'c khdng tidu thu d My vdi gia cao thi bdn gid tbd'p hdn d cdc tbi trUdng khde, dd la ldi tbd' giam gid thanb xud't khau sang My de canh tranh.
+ v l ehilu hffdng khdng cd Idi:
Dau tien la he qua ciia nd gay ra dd'i vdi thi trffdng chffng khoan Idn ciia Chau A - Thai Binh DUdng nhu Nhat Ban, Han Qud'c, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia,.,, va dac bidt la ede san giao dich chffng khoan ciia Trung Qud'c lidn tuc md't diem nbilu ngay lien, ke tff kbi manh nha cudc chie'n.
Tie'p dd'n, nhU chung ta da bid't. My - Trung dIu Id thi trffdng ibUdng mai Idn nhd't dd'i vdi Viet Nam. He luy ma Vidt Nam cd the gap phai khdng chi Id thi IrUdng chffng kboan bi lac ddng, ma cdn cd the bj My dp tbue' nhdp khd'u (NK) Idn nhieu mat hang ma bp dieu tra ra dupe la ed ngudn gdc Trung Qud'c, dffdc tudn vdo Vidt Nam lam trung gian de xua't sang My.
Trong ngan ban, ebung la ed thd' tan dung he qua cua cupc chid'n tranh IbUdng mai My - Trung de hudng Ipi. Tuy nhien, cdc DN Viet Nam can ludn gbi nhd diem cd't loi eiia kinh doanh bin vffng la ebd't lUdng di ddu, Nen kinh td' Vidt Nam, Uong do tdc nhdn la cdc DN can cd eac chid'n lUde dd'i phd riii ro dai ban bdi tdc ddng cua cupc chid'n tranh nay doi vdi Viet Nam Id rd't dang ke' vd ed xu hffdng lieu cue nhieu hdn trong dai ban khi kha nang phai trien san xua't va quy md cua ebung ta khdng dap ffng dffdc tieu chua'n My.
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Trong cupc chien thiMng mai nay, Viet Nam H6 qua ti6u cue tiif vi6c Viet Nam tang co lifli khong la nen kinh te doi dau trite tiep vdi IVly, xuat khIu vao My thay th6' Trung Qudc thi thi nhiing khong co nghia la chiing ta se khdng bi My trU5ng ViSt Nam cf My co the tang, nhimg doanh khdng che. Chiing ta can chuan bi sSn cac chinh nghiep Viet se phSi ddi mat vdi canh tranh khde het sach ddi phd bdi Viet Nam rat cd thd nam trong 6 cac thi trUdng khae My, do Trung Qudc giam ban vong xoay chung eiia toan cau. hang vao My va chuyen sang cae thi trUdng nay •
TAI LISU THAM KHAO:
1. Blair, Dennis: Alexander, Keith. "China's Intellectual Property Theft Must Stop", New York Times, August 15, 2017.
2. Lhamond, Jeremy. "Trump hits China with tariffs, heightening concerns of global trade war", CNN. Truy cdp ngay 22 thAng 3 ndm 2018.
3. "Intellectual property theft, not metal, is the real trade war m US sights and it's a much bigger worry", ABC, 9 March 2018.
4. Website- https://vi.wikipedia.org 5. Website: http://vietnamnet.vn
Ngay nhan bai: 22/2/2019
Ngay phan bien danh gia va siVa chifa: 4/3/2019 Ngay cbap nh$n dang biii: 14/3/2019
Thong tin tac gid:
ThS. NGUYEN THI THU TRANG
Khoa Kinh te cof sof - Tri/Bng Dai hoc Kinh te - Ky thuat cong nghiep
THE EFFECT OF THE U.S - CHINA TRADE WAR ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMY
• Master. NGUYEN THI THU TRANG Faculty of Fundamental Econofnics Unlvefslty of Econofnics - Technology fof Industries
ABSTRACT:
The United States - China trade war is impacting significantly on the world economy m general and Viemam's economy in particular. This article focuses on analyzing the effects of the U.S - China trade war on Vietnam's economy.
Keywords: Trade war, China - US trade, Viemam's economy.
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