ANH HlTCfNG CUA CUOC CHIEN THlTOfNG MAI MY - TRUNG DEN VIET NAM
• N G U Y I N Hl/dNG UEN - LE KIM ANH - NGUYEN THUY P H L / O N G
TOM TAT:
Cudc chie'n thtfdng mai giffa hai ctfdng qudc My - Trung Qud'c gay dnh htfdng Idn dd'n ndn kinh td' toan clu, 1dm xu htfdng ttf do hda thtfdng mai toan cdu hi vi pham. Chii nghia bdo bd mau dich trdi day, anh htfdng tdi cung cau trdn pham vi toan thd' gidi, lam cho tang trtfdng ciia kinh te' todn cau chtfng lai va tac ddng tdi cac ben thtf ba trong dd cd Viet Nam. Bai vid't phdn tich anh htfdng eiia vdng xoay thtfdng mai giffa hai cifdng qudc dd'n Viet Nam theo ca hai chidu htfdng: tidu ctfc va tich ctfc,
Tu" khoa: Cudc chie'n thtfdng mai My - Trung, thud quan, xud't khd'u, nhap khau.
1. Tac dong tich ciic trong ngan han Dau tidn phdi dd cap den stf ki vpng hoat ddng xua't khau vdi My ciia Viet Nam se gia tang trong bd'i canh cudc chid'n, Doanh nghidp Viet cd ed hdi md rdng thi phan tai My vi sd' ngdnh hang ciia Trung Qud'c bi anh htfdng nhidu bdi mtfc thue 10%
kha ttfdng ddng vdi nhdm hang xua't khau chu Itfc eiia Vidt Nam sang My. Do do, dtf kie'n mdt sd' nganh hang eiia Viet Nam cd the htfdng Ipi trtfc tie'p. Vi du vdi ngdnh hdng xud^t khau may mdc, thie't bi didn tu' ciia Trung Qud'c tri gia 62,9 ty USD hi My dp thud' sud't 10% se bi tdc ddng toan bd tai Trung Qud'c, tuy nhidn tdc ddng vdi nganh xud't khuan nay eiia Viet Nam Id khdng nhidu do gid tn ngdnh hang ndy xud't kha'u ttf Vidt Nam sang My khd khidm ton. Dd'i vdi nganh do gd, ITnh vtfc bi dp thud' vdi quy md 23 ty USD hang hda nhdp khau vdo Trung Qud'c se bi anh htfdng toan bd. Cdc ddn hang do gd, ndi tbd't eiia My cd thd se chuydn htfdng sang cac ntfdc khde trong khu vtfc Ddng Nam A nhtf Viet Nam, Thai Lan, Malaysia..., tao ed hdi md rdng thi phdn cho do gd, ndi thd't eiia Vidt Nam xud't vdo My.
Vide anh htfdng md rdng gia trj xud't khau ndy dtfpe the hidn trong stf gia tang gia trj xua't khau sang My qua cdc thdng ciia nam 2017 va 2018 theo bao cao cua Tong cue Thd'ng kd. (Xem Bang).
Cd the thd'y ttf khoang thdi gian thdng 3/2018, khi cudc chid'n thtfdng mai My - Trung bat dau didn ra thi cd stf gia tang gia tri xud't khau hang hda Viet Nam sang thi trtfdng My. Xet trong cung ky nam 2017 thi cac thang ddu cd stf gia tang gid tri hang hda xua't khd'u va trong nam 2018 da tang 8,2%, trong dd chid'm ty Id Idn nha't Id ngdnh hang ddt may, da giay, gd va che pham ttf gd
Ngodi ra, ngudn vd'n dau ttf ttf doanh nghiep ntfdc ngoai se cd xu htfdng chay khdi Trung Qudc va tim dd'n cac Ian can dn dinh hdn, trong do co Viet Nam. Didn hinh cd thd thd'y nhtf trtfdng hdp mot sd doanh nghidp My dang dau ttf tai Trung Quoc da chuyen dieh sdn xud't sang Vidt Nam (chang ban nhtf Procon Pacific trtfdc ddy san xuat todn bd san pham tai Trung Qud'c Men da phdn bd 25% tai An Dp vd 5-10% tai Vidt Nam). Hay nhtf trtfdng hdp quy dau cd Kingsmead rdi bd thi trtfdng chtfng khodn Trung Qudc, chuyen htfdng
68 So6-Thang4/20]9
KINH TE
Bang. Tri gia xuat khau vao My cua Viet Nam theo mot so mpt hang chu yeu so bp
Danvi: 1.000 USD
Thang 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 long
Nam 2017 3.021.104 2.309.713 3.324.329 3.789.830 3.569.192 3.680.973 3.747.897 3.939.575 3.607.485 3.544.638 3.510.889 3.561.921 41.607.546
Nam 2018 3.631.976 2.410 030 4.299.402 3.480 292 3.825.905 3 950 317 4.239.171 4 976.620 4.207.577 4.397.262 4.036.074 4.070.922 47.625.547 Nguon: Kim nggch xud't khdu phdn theo mdt sd nUdc
nam 2018 - Tong cue Tho'ng ke sang Vidt Nam. Quy Kingsmead tru sd tai Singapore quan Iy khoang 60 tridu USD, tap trung dau ttf d chau A va cdn quan ly tidn ciia khach hang trong nhieu tdi khoan ddn le khde da thodi hd't vd'n khdi cdc ed phie'u Trung Qud'c. Dieu nay Id do cang thang thtfdng mai leo thang vd chid'n dich that chat tin dung mac dii trtfdc day chtfng khoan Trung Qud'c chie'm 40% danh muc dau ttf Ciia quy. Thay vao dd, Kingsmead dang tang ctfdng dau ttf d Vidt Nam vdi ede co phid'u nhtf DXG (Cdng ty Co phan Tap doan Dd't Xanh), nha mdi gidi ba't ddng san ldn nhd't qud'c gia vd HPG (Cdng ty c d phan Tap doan Hda Phdt), nha san xud't thep Idn nhd't cd ntfdc,
Trong ngan han, thtfdng mai ciia Viet Nam dtf bao khdng bi anh htfdng nhieu do hau he't cac nganh, ITnh vt/e My ap thud' cao vdi Trung Qud'c deu khdng phai la ngdnh Viet Nam tham gia xua't khau dau vao nhidu sang Trung Qud'c. Tuy nhien, ne'u cudc chid'n thtfdng mai leo thang. My se dp dat mdt so' bien phap ban che' vdi hang Trung Qud'c khie'n mdt sd' hang hda cung chiing loai eiia Vidt Nam bi dnh htfdng (nhtf ttfng xdy ra dd'i vdi thep.
nhdm). Ve Idu ddi, tdc ddng Ian tda ed thd rd't Idn, khd dinh Itfdng dtfdc anh htfdng.
2. Tac dpng tieu ctfc trong dai han Trtfdc he't riii ro de'n ttf vide Trung Qud'c can giai quye't mdt Itfdng ldn hang hda hi ach tdc khdng thd xua't khau sang My. So' Itfdng bang nay dtfdc xu"
ly bdi 3 phtfdng dn:
-I- Tmng Qud'c kich tieu diing trong ntfdc, eon so' 1,4 ty dan se gdp phan x^ ly phdn Idn hdng hda.
Dieu nay lam cho khd'i Itfdng hdng hda xua't khau Viet Nam sang Tmng Qud'c se chiu anh htfdng do cau gidm, cung hang tang. Gia se bat budc phdi giam va gia tri xua't khau cung se gidm.
+ Trung Qud'c Idi keo (kd't hdp) cdc ntfdc khac ky kd't cac hidp dinh thtfdng mai ttf do va ed' gdng dtfa hang hda thdm nhdp vao chudi gid tri ciia cdc ntfdc khac md Viet Nam co ve Id didm dd'n thich hdp. Do Viet Nam dang la tbi trtfdng xua't khS'u Idn ciia Trung Qud'c vdi ty trpng 27,7%. Trung Qud'c se cd cdc chinh sdch de tid'p tue dtfa hang hda vao Viet Nam vdi rd't nhidu tieu ehi dtfdc dam bdo: Chd't Itfdng ddm bao, mdu ma dep, gid ca phai chang, ngtfdi tieu dung se tinh toan va cd the Itfa chpn siJ dung hdng hda nhdp khd'u ttf Trung Qud'c thay vi thdi quen sii dung hang Vidt, nhtf the' se khie'n cho cac doanh nghiep Viet ed thd thd't bai ngay tai sdn nha. Dieu ndy dtfdc minh chtfng ngay trong nam 2018, tdng gia tri kim ngach nhap khau ttf Trung Qud'c cua Viet Nam la 65,4 ty USD, trong khi nam 2017 eon sd' ndy chi cd 52,5 ty USD. Day la mdt stf canh bao trtfdc tinh trang Viet Nam cd the trd thdnh ntfdc nhap sidu Itfdng bdng dtf thtfa ttf Trung Qud'c lam anh htfdng de'n nen kinh id' ndi dia.
+ Tham ehi Trung Qud'c cd the mtfdn dtfdng va xua'txtf ttf Viet Nam de xua't sang My. Day Id hinh thtfc gian ldn thtfdng mai. Nd'u cac doanh nghiep Viet khdng tinh tao thi se Idi bat cap hai, khid'n doanh nghiep Viet vtfa bi giam thi phan, vtfa cd thd tang nguy ed bi "trtfng phat oan" ttf My trong xud't khau hang hda "chinh chu "sang My. Va dieu ndy se dnh htfdng Idp de'n GDP trong ntfdc. Nganh Thep trong qud khtf la mdt bai hoc Idn cho Viet Nam. Nam 2016, khi Trung Qud'c bi Hoa Ky dp lenh chd'ng ban phd gia va chd'ng trd cd'p ciia Hoa Ky, vdi mtfc thud'266% vdi san pham thep. Ngay sau dd, thep khdng gi ttf Vidt Nam vdo My dang ttf 2 tridu USD/nam tang len 80 tridu USD/nam, thep
So 6-Thang 4/2019 69
cudn lanh tang ttf 9 trieu USD len 215 tridu USD/nam, theo phia My. Phia My cho rang, 90%
sd' thep Vidt Nam van chuyen qua My cd xud't xtf ttf Trung Qud'c. Mae du Tdng cue Hai quan cho bid't chinh xac chi cd 11 mat hang thep, ttfc 34%
san Itfdng thep Vidt Nam xud't khdu qua My ed ma phdn loai hang hda trung vdi ma nhdp khau thep ttf Trung Qud'c. Song, chtfng ta khdng the chtfng minh dtfdc ngudn gd'c bang hda do dd My thang tay ap thud' ldn mat hdng nay. Thep cudn can ngudi Viet Nam se phai chiu mtfc thud' chd'ng trd cd'p vd thud' chd'ng ban pha gia eiia My la 531%, trong khi thep chd'ng dn mdn se ddi mat vdi mtfc thue'238%. Dieu nay gdy thidt hai ldn cho ngdnh Thep Viet.
Trong dai han, Vidt Nam lo ngai My dtfa teen cudc chie'n thtfdng mai de dtfa ra cdc rdo cdn ve thud', ve ky thudt do'i vdi ede ntfdc dang cd thang dtf thtfdng mai vdi My trong do cd ca Viet Nam.
Nam 2017, ti trpng xua't khau trdn tdng kim ngach ciia VietNam vdi My Id 19,4%. Cdn ti trpng nhap khd'u trdn tdng kim ngach cua Viet Nam vdi My la 4,3%, do dd Vidt Nam thang dtf thtfdng mai vdi My 15,1%. Dieu nay se anh htfdng dd'n hdng hda xua't khau ciia Viet Nam, dac biet, mdt sd' mat hang xua't khau chu Itfc eiia Viet Nam sang My nhtf ddt may, didn tii, dien thoai... cd the Id dd'i ttfdng hi nham dd'n.
Ben canh dd, mdi trtfdng tai chinh tidn td se cd nhtfng dien bie'n khdng thudn Idi. Dd la stf sut giam gia chtfng khodn, stf uy hie'p phd gia VND trtfdc stfc ep tang lai sud't ddng USD ciia
My va giam gid ddng Nhan dan td ciia Trung Qud'c. Stfc ep gidm gia VND se gia tang ciing chieu vdi stf gia tang nhap sidu va khan hid'm ngoai te, cung nhtf quy md ddng chay ngtfdc USD ra ngoai bien gidi trtfdc stfc hut cbenh Idch lai sud't huy ddng ddng USD eiia Viet Nam (hien bang 0% vd chtfa cd da'u hidu tang) vdi My (ttf 1,75-2% vd se tie'p tue tang cham). Neu keo ddi xu htfdng dn dinh ty gia (ttfc 1dm tang gid tri danh nghTa VND), stf bd't Idi ve xud't khiu eiia hang Vidt se ddm net hdn vd stfc can thu bdt ddng vd'n dau ttf trtfc tid'p ntfdc
ngodi (FDI) vao Viet Nam ciing se Idn dan Idn.
Didu nay ddng nghia vdi khd ndng thu hep san xud't vd xua't khau ciia khu vtfc dau ttf trtfc tie'p ntfdc ngoai, vi bi thiet hai vd ty gid khi dIu ttf vdo Viet Nam. Cdn nd'u budc phai tang ty gid, ttfc giam gia VND, dd tang thu hdt FDI, thi dp Itfc Iam chi phi day va Iam phdt tien td trong ntfdc xud't hien.
Cd the' thd'y, nd'u cudc chid'n thtfdng mai tiep tue keo dai, ndn kinh td' Viet Nam se chiu anh htfdng ndng ne hdn trong dai ban. Theo phdn tich ciia tap cbi Financial Times eiia Anh trong 5 ntfdc ASEAN cd nen kinh te' ldn nha't khu vtfc thi Vidt Nam, Philippines va Indonesia se phdi gdnh chiu nhffng thidt hai nghidm trpng khi cudc chie'n thtfdng mai My Trung Qud'c tid'p didn leo thang, trong dd Viet Nam bi nang nhd't vi kinh td' ntfdc nay phu thudc vao xua't cang sang My nhidu nhd't 43,7 ty USD. (Hinh 1).
Ben canh dd. Ban Kinh td' the' gidi eiia NCIF cho bid't chie'n tranh thtfdng mai My-Trung da hien hffu vd bdt dau tac ddng de'n Viet Nam tii nam 2018 va Idn dd'n dinh diem vdo nam 2020- 2021. Theo dd, nam 2018, chid'n tranh thtfdng mai ctia hai ctfdng qud'c lam giam 0,03% GDP cua Vidt Nam; dd'n nam 2019 tang len 0,09%; dd'n nam 2020-2021 la 0,12% va de'n nam 2022 tac ddng 0,11%. Theo tinh todn, quy md cua nen kinh td' Viet Nam vdo nam 2017 la 5 tridu ty ddng.
Ne'u tang trtfdng trung binh 6,5% trong 5 nam kd' ttf 2018, nam 2022, quy md cua ndn kinh td se dat khoang 6,85 trieu ty ddng. (Hinh 2).
Hinh 2: Udc finh GDP cua Viet Nam bi anh hUdng bdi chien tranh fhWdng mgi My - Trung
Nguon: Nghien cdu cua Ban Kinh tithe gidi NCIF
70 So 6 - T h a n g 4/2019
KINH TE
Hinh 1: ti le phu thuoc vao xuat khau cua nen Idnh te' Viet Nam - Financial Times
Mure phg thuOc vdo xulit kh^u
% Gia t n xuat khau so vdi GDP I Xual sang M9 • Xv&t
Nhtf vay, theo tinh toan eiia NCIF, chien tranh thtfdng mai My - Trung Qud'c se lam gidm GDP Viet Nam nam 2018 khoang 1.600 ty ddng, nam 2019 se la 5.105 ty ddng. Dinh diem trong ndm 2020 vd 2021, GDP se hi tdc ddng la cao nhat, Ian Itfdt la 7.250 ty ddng va 7.720 ty ddng. De'n nam 2022, tdc ddng ciia chie'n tranh thtfdng mai se giam nhiet khi Id 0,11%, ttfdng dtfdng khoang 7.740 ty ddng. Tinb ca giai doan 2018-2022, xung dot thtfdng mai My - Trung Qud'c se idm GDP Viet Nam hut khoang 29.200
ty ddng, tinh trung binh khoang 6.000 ty ddng/nam.
Tdm lai, du cd the ed dtfdc mpt sd' ed hdi htfdng Idi, nhtfng riii ro, thdch thtfc ttf cudc chie'n thtfdng mai ndy Id rd't ldn, khd Itfdng, Didu ndy ddi bdi cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach, doanh nghiep Viet Nam ludn bam sat, theo ddi, phdn tieh vd dtf bdo, dtfa ra cac kich ban tfng phd khde nhau. Cd hdi cd, nhtfng cdn chu ddng, tang nang Itfc dd tan dung cd hdi xud't khd'u va tinh tdo sdng lpc dtf an dau ttf, tranh he luy lau dai •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Office of the United States Trade Representative. ApiiUOlS, Under Section 301 Action, USTR Releases Proposed Tariff List on Chinese Products.
2. "US publishes list of!,300 Chinese goods worth US$50bset to be targeted by tariffs". The Straits Times.
3. Bdo cdo Kim ngach xudt khdu phdn theo mot sdnudc ndm 2017, 2018 - Tong cue Thd'ng ke.
4. Bdo cdo Anh hudng cu6c chiin thuang mai My - Trung den GDP ViSt Nam trong tuang lai - Ban Kmh tithe gidi cua NCIF.
So 6-Thdng 4/2019 71
Ngay nhan bai: 21/3/2019
Ngay phan bien danh gia va su'a chffa: 31/3/2019 Ngay chap nh&n dang bai: 11/4/2019
ThdngTintdcgtd:
ThS, NGUYfi N HCCSNG LIEN ThS. LE KIM ANH
ThS, NGUYfeN THUY PHlfONG Khoa Kinh t^cdsfl
TrifSng Dai hoc Kmh t e - Ky thuat c6ng nghi$p
IMPACTS OF THE U.S - CfflNA TRADE WAR ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMY
• Master. NGUYEN HUONG LIEN
• Master. LE KIM ANH
• Master. NGUYEN THUY PHUONG Faculty of Fundamental Economics University of Economics - Technology for Industries ABSTRACT:
The U.S - China trade war has a great influence on the global economy, causing the delay in the global trade liberalization. The rise of trade protectionism has affected the supply and the demand on a global scale, slowed down the global economic growth and impacted on third parties including Vietnam. This article analyzes both positive and negative impacts of the U.S - China trade war on Vietoam' s economy.
Keywords: The US-China trade war, tariffs, exports, imports.
72 So 6 - T h a n g 4/2019
