TAI CHiNH-TIEN IE
Thanh khoan co phieu va
quyet djnh khu vac sap nhqp d Viet Nam
DANG HtJtJ MAN
yghien cdu nay khio sat inh hUdng cua thanh khoan co phiiu din quyit dinh lifa
• chgn khu vUc sap nhap (ngi dia hoac xuyen bien gidi) cua cac cong ty thau tom d thi trddng sap nhap va mua lai (M&AJ Viet Nam. Jl^au nghien cdu gom 486 thUdng vu trong giai doan 2005-2018. Difa tren cac ky thuat ifdc Iddng thich hgp, kit qua nghien cdu cho thiy cac cong ty thSu tom nifdc ngoai thong qua hinh thdc M&A xuyen bien gidi cd xu hudng lifa chgn cac cong ty muc tieu co thanh khoan co phiiu cao de giim thieu rui ro gia nhap thi trUdng mdi va dieu nay phU hdp vdi gia thuyit tham nhap thi trudng. Kit qui nay khang dinh tinh thanh khoan co phiiu dong mgt vai tro quan trgng trong qua trinh ra quyit dinh khu vifc sap nhap cua cac cong ty thau torn vA cung cap nhdng ham y chinh sack doi vdi nha diu tu va nha quan tri cong ty.
TCf k h o a ; thanh khoan co phiiu, sap nhSp va mua iai, M&A, khu vdc sap nhap, cong ty thau torn, cong ty muc tieu.
1. Gidfi t h i e u
Trong giai doan 2007-2018, da eo gdn 4.000 thUdng vu sap n h a p va mua lai (M&A) ldn nhd khae n h a u dUdc thUc hidn t h a n h cdng tai Viet Nam, vdi tong gia tri len tdi 48,8 ty USD, vUdt qua con sd'ky lue 5,8 ty USD cua nam 2016. Budc ngoat mdi duoc tinh tii eon so' ky liic hon 10 ty USD eiia nam 2017, sau thUdng vii Thaibev chi 4,8 ty USD mua lai Sabeco, de tao r a nen t a n g cho lan sdng mdi ctia thi trUdng M&A Viet Nam (Cd sd dxi lieu SDC Platinum, 2019). Tid'n trinh co p h a n hda doanh nghidp n h a nUdc, ciing nhU ke' hoaeh thoai vd'n n h a nUdc, sii phat trien ldn m a n h cua k h u vUc t u n h a n da tao ndn sti b u n g no' a'n tUdng cua thi trUdng M&A Viet Nam thdi gian qua.
Thuc te, Viet Nam mdi ban dUdc 8% vd'n n h a nUdc thdng qua cac thUdng via a'n tUdng eua Sabeco, Vinamilk..., do dd, nd'u day m a n h thoai vd'n, co p h a n hda doanh nghidp n h a nude, se tao dUde bUdc dot p h a t r e n thi trUdng M&A.
Nhieu ky vong da dUde dat r a cho thi trUdng M&A Viet Nam trong nhiing n a m tdi khi xu hudng d i u tU theo hinh thtic gdp vdn,
mua cd p h a n dang ngay cang gia tang. Ne'u nhu trudc ddy, da p h a n n h a dau t u nUdc ngoai lua chon lap dU an, xay n h a may mdi de dau t u b Viet Nam (Greenfield investment), thi nhting n a m viia qua, dau tU trUc tid'p nude ngoai dUdc p h a t trien chu yd'u thdng qua mua Iai cac dii an dang p h a t t r i l n (Cross-border acquisitions). Trong 6 thang dau nam 2018, eac n h a d a u tU nUdc ngoai da chi tdi 4,1 ty USD, t a n g 82,4% so vdi eung ky nam 2017, de gdp vd'n, m u a co p h d n trong cae doanh nghidp b Viet Nam (Dien dan M&A Viet Nam, 2018)V Did'u nay dang thtic sU tao ra nhUng budc ngoat mdi, mb r a mdt ky nguyen mdi cho boat dong M&A t a i ' Vidt Nam, vdi k^ vong ldn hdn niia ve' sd'lUdng va gia tri thUdng vti.
Su phat tri^n cua thi trudng noi dia Vidt Nam da kich thich eae n h a ddu tu nudc ngoai 'theo dudi", mong mud'n mua co' phdn vdi cac doanh nghidp Viet. Sd'lieu tho'ng ke t ^ SDC Dang Hflu M5n, TS., Tru&ng dai hoc Kinh ,^- c^ • u Da Nang. ' '''"''^e. Dai hoc
1. https://baodautu.vn/dien-dan-ma-vict- 2018-buoc-ngoat-moi-ky-nguyen-moi-d85l95h"^'"^™"
5 4 N^ien cOu Kmh lg s6 7(494y7x^.—
Thanh khoan ctf phie'u ...
Platinum cho tha'y sU " h a n g hai" ctia cae nha ddu t u Thai Lan, N h a t Ban, Xingapo, Han Quoc..., da thiic day t h a n h cdng h a n g loat thUdng vu dUde thiic hien dd'i vdi cac cdng ty muc tieu (Target firm) Viet Nam, nhu Thaibev m u a Sabeco, Central Group mua BigC, F r a s e r and Neave m u a cd' p h a n Vinamilk, Mizuho mua cd p h a n Vietcombank, TTC Holdings m u a Metro Viet N a m . Ben eanh dd, ngay cang xua't hidn n h i e u doanh nghiep Viet Nam, dac bidt la cae doanh nghidp ldn ddng vai trd la ngUdi di m u a (Acquirers), n h u FPT, Vinamilk d^ thuc hien chidn lUdc d a u tU kinh doanh cua minh.
Trong bdi canh Viet N a m da la t h a n h vidn cua ta't ca cac to chiic qud'e td' ldn nhU To' chiic ThUdng mai thd' gidi (WTO), Cong dong kinh te'ASEAN... va da t h a m gia, ky ke't, dam p h a n td'ng cdng 15 hidp dinh thUdng mai txi do (FTA) trong dd cd cac FTA quan trong nhU Hiep dinh dd'i tac xuyen Thai Binh DUdng (TPP), Hiep dinh dd'i tae toan didn k h u vUe (RCEP)... Viec t h a m gia, thtic thi cac hiep dinh thUdng mai tti do tao ra nhiing cd hdi va thaeh thUc mdi cho cdng dong doanh nghidp Viet N a m va hiia h e n mot sU biing no cae thUdng vu M&A trong thdi gian tdi. Mdt t r o n g nhiing v a n de ma'u chd't can n i m viing k h i nghien ciiu ve M&A la tim hieu dong cd cua cdng ty di t h a u tdm trong viec Itia ch9n k h u viie M&A (M&A noi dia va M&A xuyen hien gidi). Qua t r i n h toan cau hda, hoi n h a p quoc te g a n day da dan xda bo bidn gidi k i n h doanh eua cae cong ty da qudc gia, khie'n cho xu hUdng M&A xuyen bidn gidi n g a y c a n g trcf t h a n h xu hudng ta't ye'u t r o n g hd'i e a n h k i n h t ^ toan cdu. Cac nghidn ciiu thUc nghiem ve M&A k h a nhieu, p h d n Idn cac n g h i d n ctiu nay tap t r u n g vao M&A t r o n g nUdc hoac cac nghien ciiu dUdc thUc hien hbi cae cdng ty b eac nudc p h a t t r i e n (Tichy, 2001;
Martynova va Renneboog, 2008; HalebUan va cong sii, 2009). TU ddu nhiing n a m 2000, cac thUdng vti M&A xuyen bien gidi ngay eang tang, dae bidt la b ckc nUdc mdi noi
n h u T r u n g Qud'e, An Dp va Nga (UNCTAD, 2018). Meyer va cong sU (2011) cho r a n g cac thUdng VTI m u a lai xuydn bien gidi cd the truyen d i n cd chd' q u a n tri doanh nghidp eiia nudc ehii ddu tU sang cac nUdc tid'p n h a n ddu tU. Khi cac hoat ddng mua lai xuyen bien gidi dd'n cac t h i trUdng mdi nd'i tid'p tuc gia t a n g , sU hieu bie't ve ddng liic va y nghia chid'n lUdc cua cac thUdng vu m u a lai qud'e te' nay ngay cang trd nen quan trpng va d a n g dUdc chii y nhieu hdn (Bekaert va Harvey, 2000). Do dd, gia thuyet t h a m n h a p thi trUdng ehien lUdc la phii hdp hdn cl cac thi trUdng mdi noi so vdi cac nudc p h a t trien.
Mot trong nhiing khia canh quan trpng tiem t a n g a n h hu3ng d^n qua trinh lap ke hoach thUdng vu da dUdc cac nghien ciiu thUc nghidm ehiing minh, dd la mdi trUdng thdng tin. Ly thuye't thdng tin ba't dd'i xiing de xua't rang, miic dp minh bach thdng tin khac n h a u dang k^ gitia eac cdng ty la do sU khac biet ve mdi trUdng thdng tin. Do dd, cac cdng ty trong thUdng vu M&A cd the cd mtic dp thdng tin ba't dd'i xiing khac nhau, ddn dd'n h a n h vi t a n g gia cd phidu dang ke trUdc khi p h a t thdng bao thUdng vu m u a lai, di^u nay phii hdp vdi gia thuyd't nang gia CO phieu trUdc thdng bao mua lai dUdc de xua't bdi Keown va Pinkerton (1981).
TUdng tu, nghien ciiu cua Schwert (1996) ciing n h a n tha'y h a n h vi dieu chinh gia chao m u a ciia cdng ty t h a u tdm (edng ty di mua) theo sau h a n h vi n a n g gia cd phi^u cua cdng ty muc tieu (edng ty bi t h a u tdm) trudc thUdng vu. Kd't q u a la t i n h t h a n h khoan cd' phieu cua moi cdng ty trong thUdng vu cd th^ bi a n h huSng, tti dd tac dpng dd'n danh muc cua mdi n h a ddu tu. Mot co phi^u cd t h a n h khoan td't se thiic d^y hoat dpng giao dich, dac "bidt la giao dich diia trdn thdng tin, do vay, cai t h i e n t h e m t i n h thdng tin cua gia cd' phie'u (Dow va Gorton, 1997;
S u b r a h m a n y a m va Titman, 2001) va gia t a n g gia tri cong huSng cho moi thUdng vu (Yang va cdng sU, 2017). Thdm vao dd, mot t h i t r u d n g M&A vdi t h a n h khoan td't cd thi
NghUn ciu Kinh tgs£7(494) - Thing 7/2019
55
Thanh khoan cd phl^u ...
tao Stic ep cho viee thtic h a n h mdt cd ehd' quan tri cong ty td't trong cac doanh nghiep.
Do vay, vide p h a n tich a n h hudng cua t h a n h khoan cd' phieu dd'n sU t h a n h cdng cua eac thUdng vu la va'n de can thiet. Cho de'n nay, day la mdt va'n de chUa dUde nghien ciiu mpt each toan dien d Viet N a m .
2. Cor sd ly t h u y e t
2.1. Quyit dinh lifa chgn khu vifc thdu torn
Tiiy thupc vao ddng cd trong tiing thUdng vu ma cac cdng ty t h a u tdm se dUa r a cac quyet dinh lien quan dd'n lUa ehpn khu vtic t h a u tdm, cd the la t h a u tdm npi dia hoac t h a u tdm qua bien gidi. Ve cd ban, trong cac thUdng vu thi eae edng ty t h a u tdm ndi dia thUdng cd ldi thd' ve thdng tin, t h i trUdng hdn so vdi eac cdng ty t h a u tdm nUdc ngoai.
Harris va Ravenscraft (1991) chi r a eae cdng ty thau tdm nUde ngoai phai tra phi cao hdn khi thau tdm cac edng ty muc tieu hoat dpng eiing Iinh vUc. Thau tdm qua bidn gidi la chinh saeh t h a m n h a p thi trUdng qudc te' n h a n h chdng va ed hieu qua trong cac thi trUdng canh t r a n h , ndi ma ddu tU vao cae cdng ty mdi cd the se dat t h a n h edng lau hdn (Buckley va cdng sU, 2012).
M&A cd ye'u td' nUdc ngoai hay cdn gpi la M&A xuyen quoe gia la mot hinh thCtc dau t u trUc tiep giiip gia t a n g nguon vd'n cho nen kinh td', chuydn giao cdng nghe, ky t h u a t , n a n g cao t r i n h do quan ly... Ngoai ra, dpng cd dang sau eac thUdng vu M&A xuyen qud'e gia cdn xua't p h a t tU sU khdng hoan hao cua thi trUdng san p h a m , nhiing khie'm khuye't va ba't dd'i xiing thdng tin trong thi trudng vd'n (Zhu va cdng sti, 2011), sii khac bidt trong each t i n h thud' (Weston va cdng sU, 2001) va cud'i ciing la n a m b a t cac ed hpi tif tinh khdng hieu qua ctia thi trUdng (Serveas va Zenner, 1994). Tuy nhidn, do sU khac n h a u ve mdi trUdng kinh td', chinh tri, v a n hda, xa hpi, n e n cae thUdng vu t h a u tdm qua bien gidi t h u d n g phiic tap hdn so vdi cac thudng vu t h a u tdm ndi dia.
Martynova va Renneboog (2008) bd' sung
t h e m bang chUng khi chi r a r a n g trong cac thUdng vti M&A qua bien gidi, cac cdng ty t h a u tdm t h u d n g la cac cdng ty ldn.
Cac nghidn ciiu hien tai chi r a r a n g cac eong ty mtic tieu trong nUdc hoat ddng k e m hdn trudc khi t h u d n g vu M&A dUdc thdng bao (Fukao va epng sU, 2006; Zhu va edng sU, 2011; Dang va epng sU, 2018). P h a t hien nay phii hdp vdi gia thuyd't k i l m soat doanh nghidp, cho tha'y cac cdng ty t h a u tdm trong nUdc Ua thich cac muc tieu h o a t dpng kdm, vi cac cdng ty t h a u tdm n a y da thi^t lap dUdc vi t h e thi t r u d n g ndi t a i va ed nhi^u thdng tin cung nhU ldi the' de kd't nd'i hdn cae cdng ty t h a u tdm nUdc ngoai (Conn va cdng sU, 2005; Moeller va Schlingemann, 2005). Hdn niia, gia thuye't n a y ciing phii hdp vdi van hda doanh nghidp va va'n de thay thd' q u a n Iy dai dien cho cdng ty.
NgUdc Iai, mdt so nghien eiiu khac u n g hp vide mua Iai mot p h d n b a n g h i n h thiic M&A xuydn bien gidi nhU mpt phUdng thiic t h a m n h a p thi trUdng chien lUdc va cho r a n g eae edng ty t h a u tdm nUde ngoai cd xu hudng m u a lai cac cdng ty h o a t dong td't (Zhu va cdng sU, 2011; D a n g va cdng sU, 2018).
H e n n a r t va Reddy (1997) giai thich rang cac cdng ty muc tidu noi dia cd mang lUdi phan phdi ldn, uy tin cao, nguon n h a n lUc ed trinh dp to't va dieu kien tai chinh m a n h me cd the giiip cac cdng ty t h a u tdm nUdc ngoai thich iing td't hdn trong mdt t h i trUdng mdi.
2.2. Thanh khodn co phieu va thi trudng M&A
Thanh khoan cd' phie'u de cap dd'n sU "dl dang" khi giao dich mdt ed' phieu (Amihud va cdng su, 2005). Su d l dang n a y dUdc hieu la tUdng ting vdi mot khd'i lUdng giao dieh dUdc xac dinh, giao dich se khdng cd tac dpng Idn de'n gia, khong ma't n h i l u thdi gian de cd the khdp l e n h t h a n h cdng cho khdi lUdng giao dieh dd. Khi cac yeu cdu n a y khdng dudc ddp iing, nhiing ngudi giao dich phai ganh chiu t h e m mdt ehi phi de cd t h ' ' thtic hidn cac l e n h mua, b a n ciia minh v ' day la ehi phi t h a n h khoan. T h a n h khoan la
56 Nghiin COU Knh igsd7(494) - 'ihiii^Tj^
Thanh khoan co phieu ...
mpt ehi dau quan trpng cd a n h hudng dd'n viec thtic hien chiie n a n g cua t h i trUdng ehiing khoan. Mdt t h i trUdng cd t h a n h khoan tot se thtic day hoat ddng giao dich, dac bidt la giao dich dUa t r e n t h d n g tin, do vay cai thien t h e m t i n h thdng tin cua gia ed' phid'u (Dow va Gorton, 1997; Subrahmanyam va Titman, 2001). Thdm vao dd, mot thi trUdng vdi t h a n h khoan td't cd t h e tao siic ep cho vide thuc h a n h mdt cd chd' q u a n tri cdng ty td't trong cae doanh nghidp. Cu the, thanh khoan eho phep cac n h a ddu t u cd thd de dang thtic hien "de doa riit vd'n" b a n g each ban thao cd' phieu eiia cac edng ty khi nhan thay rSng nhiing ngUdi dieu h a n h cdng ty khdng vi ldi ich eua eo ddng (Edmans v a M a n s o , 2011).
Dd'i vdi thi trudng M&A, trong khi cac edng ty thau tdm trong nUde mong mud'n
• mua lai de giam chi phi d a u tU, tao cac tiem Itic t h u a n Idi de p h a t trien Idn m a n h va dat dUde ldi the' eanh t r a n h trdn thUdng trUdng, thi cae edng ty t h a u tdm xuyen bien gidi lai eho rang day la ed hdi de hp gia n h a p thi trUdng mdi vdi rui ro tha'p nha't. Cdng ty thau tdm xuyen bidn gidi d a n h gia cao vide Ilia ehpn cd' phie'u cua eong ty mtic tieu cd thanh khoan cao va khdng cd tac ddng ba't ldi dd'n gia ca. T h a n h k h o a n cao se cd k h a nang thu hiit mot ludng ldn cac n h a dau t u tiem nang vao thi trUdng. Cdng ty muc tidu cd thanh khoan eao se mb rong cd scl cd ddng va do dd se ha'p ddn hdn dm vdi ngUdi m u a xuyen bien gidi. Ne'u t h a n h k h o a n cd' phie'u dUde dinh gia, thi edng ty t h a u tdm xuyen qud'e gia san sang t r a n h i e u hdn cho eac cdng ty mtic tieu cd tinh Idng cao hdn. Su san long dd chuyen t h a n h p h a n bu thUdng vti cao hdn va xac sua't t h a n h cdng ciia gia chao mua cang Idn. Ndi each khac, cac cdng ty muc tidu cd t h a n h k h o a n cd' phie'u cao cd the thu htit dUdc cdng ty t h a u tdm xuyen bidn gidi hdn so vdi cdng ty t h a u tdm t r o n g nudc.
Cae kd't qua thtic nghidm hidn t a i cd xu hudng eho tha'y rSng trong cac thUdng vti
M&A xuyen bien gidi, cac edng ty muc tidu dUdng n h u ed quy md ldn hdn eGng nhU t i n h h i n h tai chinh td't hdn so vdi cdc thUdng vu M&A ndi dia (Harris va Ravenscraft, 1991;
D a n g va cdng sU, 2018). Cdng ty thau tdm xuyen bien gidi cd t h e hudng Idi nhieu hdn khi m u a Iai trong nUdc (Shimizu va epng sU, 2004). Ngoai ra, mot sd'kd't qua chi r a r a n g cac cdng ty muc tieu cd tinh hinh tai chinh kem thudng de bi m u a Iai ndi dia. Focarelli va cdng sti (2002), B e r t r a n d va Zitouna (2008), H a n n a n va Pilloff (2009), S t a r k s va Wei (2013) cho r a n g cac cdng ty t h a u tdm npi dia ve cd b a n cd ldi thd' thdng tin, ldi the mang lUdi va thi trUdng hdn cac cdng ty t h a u tdm nUdc ngoai, do dd, vide mua Iai cae dd'i tae npi dia ed t i n h h i n h tai chinh khdng td't se k h a thi hdn so vdi cac dd'i tac nUdc ngoai. Trong khi dd, cac edng ty t h a u tdm nudc ngoai thdng qua mua lai xuyen bien gidi dd tim kidm cac edng ty muc tidu cd ket qua tai ehinh td't khi t h a m n h a p vao mot thi trudng mdi. Zhu va epng sU (2011) giai thich r a n g vdi mang ludi p h a n phd'i Idn, danh tid'ng td't, nguon n h a n lUc cha't lUdng cao va cac dieu kidn tai chinh m a n h se giiip hd trd cac cdng ty t h a u tdm thich nghi td't hdn trong mdi trUdng mdi. Ye (2014) cdn nha'n m a n h rang, do sii ba't dd'i xting thdng tin (ve tieu chu^n kd' toan, van hda, sti khac bidt p h a p ly), cac edng ty t h a u tdm xuydn bidn gidi t h u d n g tim kie'm cdc cdng ty muc tieu hoat ddng td't de dd dang dinh gia, tinh toan gia tri cdng hxibng va di xua't miic gia mua lai hdp Iy. Tinh t h a n h khoan ed phid'u thudng p h u thuoc vao ke't qua kinh doanh cua doanh nghidp nidm yet. Nd'u mpt doanh nghiep ed h o a t ddng kinh doanh hieu qua, chinh sach cd' tiic ha'p dan, doanh nghidp n a y nhieu k h a n a n g t h u htit n h a dau t u hdn, qua dd cd' phid'u cua doanh nghiep cung cd t h e dd d a n g m u a b a n t r e n thi tnidng. Do dd, cd t h e tha'y rSng t h a n h khoan co phie'u cdng t y muc tidu cd mpt a n h hUcing n h a t dinh dd'n vide lUa ehpn khu vUc M&A cua cdng ty t h a u tdm.
Nghiin ciiu Knh tBsd7(494) - Thing 7/2019 57
Thanh khoan co phi£'u ,
Nghien ciiu ctia Aybar va Ficici (2009) eiing chi r a rang, m u a Iai mdt cdng ty cd tinh t h a n h khoan cao hdn lam cho cd' phie'u cua cdng ty t h a u tdm cd t h a n h khoan eao hdn, eae cdng ty t h a u tdm xuydn bien gidi Ua thieh nhiing cd phid'u cd t h a n h khoan cao vi ho thUdng phai can dd'i Iai d a n h mue dau tu cua minh dd dap iing ydu cau m u a lai.
Nghien ciiu cua Massa va cdng sU (2013) Cling n h a n thay, cdng ty t h a u tdm s a n sang tra nhieu hdn cho mdt cdng ty muc tidu cd t h a n h khoan cd phieu eao hdn. Tii nhiing ke't luan tren cang cung cd' va'n de dat r a rang, t h a n h khoan cd phid'u cua cdng ty muc tieu ed anh hudng dd'n vide Itia chpn k h u vuc M&A. Dua trdn gia thuyd't t h a m n h a p thi trUdng chien ludc, chiing tdi dd" xua't h a i gia thuyd't nhU sau:
Gia thuyit Hi: cac cdng ty muc tidu xuyen bien gidi ed t h a n h khoan cd phie'u eao hdn cac cdng ty muc tieu ndi dia.
Gia thuyit H2: cac cdng ty t h a u tdm xuyen bien gidi cd xu hUdng m u a lai cae edng ty mue tieu cd t h a n h khoan ed phie'u td't hdn.
3. Duf l i d u v a phiitfng p h a p n g h i e n ciiu
3.1. Dd lieu
Trong nghien etiu nay, m a u khao sat bao gom toan bd eac cdng ty niem yet tren hai Sd Giao dich chiing khoan T h a n h phd' Ho Chi Minh (HOSE) va H a Npi (HNX) trong khoang thdi gian 2005-2018. D a lieu ke' toan, kd't qua tai chinh va gia cd phid'u dUdc sii dung trong nghien ciiu nay dUdc cung ca'p bdi StoxPlus, mdt edng ty uy tin chuyen t h u thap va p h a n tich dfl lieu tai chinh cua cac cdng ty cl Vidt Nam. Dfl lieu ve thUdng vti M&A dUde t h u t h a p tfl cd sci dfl lieu cd t r a phi Thomson Reuters SDC Platinum.
Ydu cdu v l dfl lieu la cac cdng ty t h a u tdm chao mua cd' p h d n tai eac cdng ty mtie tieu khdng it hdn 5% va khdng n a m giii it hdn 5% sau khi thUdng vu dUdc hoan t h a n h . N h u vay, nghidn cflu da t h u t h a p dUde 486
thUdng vu M&A t r o n g giai doan 2005-2018 gdm ea m u a lai ndi dia va xuydn bien gidi-
3.2. Phuang phdp nghien cttu De khao s a t a n h hudng cua t h a n h khoan ed phie'u dd'n sti lUa chon k h u vtic M&A eiia cac cdng ty t h a u tdm, chiing tdi dfla trdn md h i n h hoi quy da bie'n vdi dfl lieu cheo (Cross-sectional d a t a regression) nhU sau:
CROSS-BORDER.,, = po + piILLIQi.t + p3C0NTR0LS,,t.i + 7J + 5t + ^,.t (1)
Trong dd:
- Bid'n p h u thupc (CROSS-BORDER): la 1 bie'n n h i p h a n , n h a n gia t r i b a n g 1 neu thUdng vu M&A xuyen bien gidi xay ra, b a n g 0 n e u thUdng vu dd la M&A ndi dia.
- Bid'n ddc lap (ILLIQ); bid'n dpc lap trong md h i n h nghien cflu la t i n h t h a n h khoan kem cua eo phie'u. DUa t r e n Amihud (2002), tinh t h a n h k h o a n kem (ILLIQ) dUdc do ludng n h u sau:
ILUQiit = 1/Diit 2,(d = l)»(Djit)t KQRiidt |/Vtidt 1 Trong dd: ILLIQu la ehi so' k6m t h a n h khoan cua eo phie'u; Ridi la Idi n h u a n giao dieh cua cd phid'u i moi ngay d trong mdi nam t; Dn la so' n g a y giao dich ma cd phieu i giao dich trong moi n a m t; V,cit la khdi lUdng cd phie'u i dUdc giao dich moi ngay d trong moi n a m t.
Khi ty Id k e m t h a n h khoan cao, tfle ILLIQu Idn, cd phie'u i dUdc xem la cd t h a n h khoan tha'p. Ty Id n a y dUdc coi la p h a n ting eua gia ed phieu h a n g ngay vdi khd'i lUdng giao dich. Cdng thflc do Ifldng n a y dong th6i quan tam dd'n dp sau, tflc la khoi lUdng cd phieu dUdc giao dich va dp rdng, tflc la chenh leeh gia ed phie'u. Theo each do lUdng nay, nhflng cd phid'u cd ehenh leeh gia tha'p va cd so ludng CO phieu giao dich ldn se la nhflng cd phid'u cd t h a n h khoan td't Vi vay t^ Id t h a n h k h o a n kem ILLIQ cua cd phiku cang eao thi t h a n h k h o a n co phid'u cane tha'p va ngUdc lai.
Bien kiem soat (CONTROLS):
hdp eac bid'n dUde s\i dung di kiem hidu flng k h a e dUdc xac dinh bcli
mdt tap soat cac
^^c nghidn
58 Nghiin aiu KnhWs&7(49^i:j;;^;;^y^
Thanh khoan co phieu ,
cflu trUde day (Bange va Mazzeo, 2004;
Andriosopoulos va Yang, 2015). Cd 2 nhdm bien kiem soat dfldc sfl d u n g de kiem soat md hinh:
+ Cae bie'n npi tai ciia edng ty mue tieu (firm-level) (dfldc t h u t h a p tfl bao cao tai chinh vao nam tai chinh gdn n h a t ke't thue trudc thdi die'm xay r a thfldng vii) gdm:
LEVERAGE: ddn bdy tai chinh (dfldc xae dinh bang each la'y tdng nd chia cho tdng tai san); ROA: ty Id ldi n h u a n tren tai san (dUdc xae dinh bang each lay ldi nhuEtn rdng trUdc thue ehia cho td'ng tai san); SALESGROWTH:
ty Id tang trUdng doanh thu.
+ Cac bid'n dac diem cua thfldng vu (deal- specific) gdm: RELATED: bid'n nhi p h a n (nhan gia tri 1 neu edng ty muc tieu va edng ty thay tdm hoat ddng trong cung mdt linh vuc va n h a n gia tri 0 cho trfldng hdp ngfldc lai); CASH: bie'n nhi p h a n (nhan gia tri 1 ne'u thUdng vu dUdc t h a n h toan b a n g tien mat va n h a n gia t r i 0 cho cac trUdng hdp edn lai); TOEHOLD: bid'n nhi p h a n (nhan gia tri bang 1 ne'u edng ty t h a u tdm cd sb hiiu vd'n ed p h a n trong cdng t y muc tieu tai thdi diem thUdng vu va n h a n gia t r i b a n g 0 cho trudng hdp ngUdc lai).
De han ehd' a n h hUdng ctia nhflng q u a n sat ngoai vi, chung tdi bien ddi cac q u a n s a t eua cac bid'n cl p h a n vi 1% va p h a n vi 99%
trong phan phd'i m a u cua moi bie'n lien tuc.
Winsorizing la thii tuc t h a y the' cac gia tri ctic doan vdi cac gia tri cua cac quan sat tai ngoai vi, tfl dd giam a n h huSng eua nhflng gia tri cUc doan len cac kd't qua thd'ng kd.
Mo h i n h (1) bao gdm a n h hUcing ed' dinh n g a n h (YJ) va a n h hxibng cd dinh n a m (5i) n h a m kidm soat t a c ddng chi phd'i cua n g a n h va n a m len a n h h u d n g cua q u a n tri cdng ty dd'n c h i n h s&ch p h a n phd'i cd tfle.
Ngoai ra, sai so' c h u a n eung da dflde dieu ehinh de giai quye't hidn tUdng phUdng sai k h d n g ddng nha't va dUdc fldc lUdng theo n g a n h de giai quyd't va'n de tti tUdng q u a n .
4. Ket q u a v a t h a o l u a n
4.1. Thdng ke mo td mau nghien cdu Bang 1 t r i n h bay tho'ng kd md t a cac bid'n dUde sfl dung trong nghien cflu nay. Ty Id kem t h a n h khoan cd phieu t r u n g binh cua eac cdng ty muc tieu trong khoan thdi gian m l u la -2,624. V l cac bid'n ki^m soat ndi tai cua cdng ty muc tieu, ty le tang trUcing doanh t h u t r u n g binh la 34,14%, ty Id nd t r u n g binh dat 49,53%, trong khi kd't qua kinh doanh d a t t r u n g binh 1,17%. Ve cae bien kidm soat dac didm thUdng vu, ket qua cho tha'y cac thUdng vu mua Iai cung n g a n h chi chiem 7%. Trong khi dd, t h a n h toan b a n g tien m a t la 4 1 % va ty Id cdng ty t h a u tdm cd sd hflu vd'n cd p h a n tai cdng ty mtic tieu trUdc khi thdng bao thUdng vu la 33%.
BANG 1: Ket q u a tho'ng k e m o t a c a c b i e n Bi&
CROSS-BORDER ILLIQ SALESGROWTH LEVERAGE ROA RELATED CASH TOEHOLD
Stf quan s^t 485 346 465 479 478 485 485 485
Gid tri tiung t^nh 0,136 -2,625 0,341 0,495 0,177 0,071 0,410 0,331
D d l e d i c h u i a 0,343 3,178 1,401 0,259 0,129 0,255 0,492 0,471
Gi£ tri ah6 obit 0 -11,245
-1 0.001
0 0 0 0
Gid tri ldn n h ^ 1 2,939
26,3 2,818 1,551 1 1 1
^^udn.-Ti'nh loan cita tac gia.
Nghiin cilu Knh tSs£7(494) • Thing 7/2019
59
Thanh khoan co phieu ,
B a n g 2 t r i n h b a y thd'ng ke mo t a tUdng q u a n gifla h a i k h u vtic s a p n h a p . K e t q u a cho tha'y t r o n g td'ng so' 485 thUdng vii t h i M&A xuyen bien gidi chie'm 1 3 % , tfldng flng vdi 66 thUdng vu, M&A noi dia len de'n 419 thUdng vu. B e n e a n h do, eac edng ty t h a u tdm nfldc ngoai ciing thUdng
BANG 2: D a c die'm c u a c a c thUtfng v u m u a lai t h e o t i i n g l o a i h i n h M&A lUa chpn cac dd'i t a c c u n g n g a n h v a t h a n h t o a n b a n g t i e n m a t hdn cac cdng ty t h a u tdm ndi dia. T r o n g k h i do, so' cac edng ty t h a u tdm ndi dia ed sd hflu vdn t a i cdng ty m u c t i e u trUdc thUdng v u n h i e u hdn so vdi sd cdng ty t h a u tom xuydn bien gidi.
Khu vile M&A Xuyftn bifen gift
N6i dia
S6 luong thuong vu 66 419
Mua Cling ng^nh (%)
13 6
Ty \& sb hihi tai (hin di^m mua lai {%)
40 48
Mua lai bing ti&i mat (%) '
45 40 Ngudn:Tmh toan cua tac g
4.2. Su khdc biet ve thanh khodn cd phieu gida 2 khu vifc M&A Bang 3 md t a sti k h a c b i e t vd ty Id kem - t h a n h k h o a n cua cac cdng ty mue tidu p h a n theo k h u vtic M&A giai doan trUdc va s a u khi thfldng v u dUdc h o a n t h a n h . K e t q u a cho tha'y, b ca giai doan trUdc m u a lai eung nhU mpt n a m sau k h i thUdng vu da h o a n t h a n h , cac cdng ty
BANG 3: T h a n h k h o a n cd
mtic tidu dudi h i n h thflc M&A x u y e n bien gidi cd t h a n h k h o a n cd phid'u cao h d n cac cdng ty muc t i d u ndi dia^. Kd't q u a nay u n g hp gia t h u y e t H I r a n g , cac cdng ty t h a u tdm x u y d n b i d n gidi t h u d n g chgn nhflng cdng ty m u c tidu cd t h a n h k h o a n cd p h i e u cao va c h u n g v d n duy t r i dUdc t i n h t h a n h k h o a n b mflc eao t r o n g n a m d a u tidn s a u thUdng v u .
p h i ^ u gifla 2 k h u vi^c M&A I m h kim tfaanh k h o ^
(ILUQ) Tnl6c khi thong bao
thucmg vii (Pre-bid) Sau khi thitang vii h o ^
thanh (Post-bid)
I h u a a g vu xuySn biftn gi6i N
52
52 Mean -3,664
-4,109 Std.Dev
3,255
3,452
lliutnig vu n^i dia N
293
278 Mean
•2,449
•2,298 Std.Dev
3,136
3,82
Diffeience test t-ratio
2,562**«
3,621»«»
Ngu6n: Tinh toan ciia x&c gia.
4.3. Thanh khodn co phieu vd quyei dinh lua chon khu vUc M&A Bang 4 xem xet mo'i ttidng quan giQa t h a n h khoan cd phieu c6ng ty muc tieu va viec lUa chon k h u vtic M&A ciia cong ty thau tom. Ket qua hoi quy cho tha'y rang biS'n ILLIQ CO tuang quan ngUdc chi§"u va c6 ^ nghia tho'ng ke S miJc 1% ddi vdi bien
CROSS^BORDER, nghia la cong ty thau torn xuyen bien gift co xu hudng lila chon nhflng doi tac CO t h a n h khoan cao hdn v4 ke't qua nay p h a hdp vdi gia thuye't H2.
2. O) tai thSy s6 luong quan sit biSn elj™ , thuong vu n6i dia v6i nguyen nhan chinh li j T^l c6ng ty bi thau torn 100% n8n khOng c6n duoc n i ? " 7 tr«n sin giao dich chiing khodn. "^tniemyft
60 Nghien aiu Kinh tS s6 7(434). KT~
' "^7/2Qig
Thanh khoan c£phi6'u ...
BANG 4: Anh CO phi^u den sU
hifdng cua thanh khoan hia. chon khu vflc M&A
Bi^n
ILLIQ
SALESGROWTH
LEVERAGE
ROA
RELATED
CASH
TOEHOLD
Constant
Industry, Year effects Adj.R=
N
(^y£lt dinh li;a chon khu vuc M&A M 6 h i n h ( l )
-0,263***
(-3.53)
-2.560*
(-I,''0) IY
24,27%
302
M 6 Mnh (2) -0,169**
(-1,99) 0,147 (0,53) -2,642**
(-2,38) -0,373 (-1,62) 3.172***
(3,12) 0,153 (0,31)
•1,408***
(-2,58) -1,330 (-0,69) IY
33,11%
294 Ghi chu: ky hieu ***, ** va * \h\ laot chi vnxtc y nghia thtfng ke 1%, 5% vi 10%. Cac m6 hinh 6 tren da bao g6m anh hucmg c6 djnh nganh (jj) va anh hilcmg c6 dinh nam (&) nham ki^m soat tac dfing chi phdi ciia nginh (I) vi nam (Y) ddi vdi 4nh hucmg cua thanh khoan c6 phid'u dfih siJ lua chon khu viic M&A.
De tie'p tiie kiem dinh t i n h b^n vflng cua kd't qua nghidn cflu, chung tdi l a p lai md hinh hoi quy, trong dd, bien I L L I Q u (bid'n ty Id kem t h a n h k h o a n cd' p h i e u cua cong ty muc tieu vdi dp trd 1 n a m ) l a b i e n doc l a p . Sxi dung gia tri trd cua bid'n ddc lap cho ph6p han che' a n h hfldng theo ehieu ngfldc lai. Mdt lan nfla, ke't qua b h a n g 5 v i n p h u hdp vdi
nhflng p h a t hidn trong cac p h a n tich b p h a n trUde. Bid'n I L L I Q u tUdng quan ngUde chieu vdi bid'n CROSS-BORDER, dong nghia vdi vide eac cdng ty t h a u tdm nflde ngoai Itia chon cac cdng ty mue tieu cd t h a n h khoan cao, trong k h i cac edng ty t h a u tdm ndi dia, do ldi t h e cua "san n h a " cd t h e h a i long vdi cac dd'i tdc kem t h a n h k h o a n hon.
BANG 5: K i e m d i n h t i n h b e n v f l n g c u a k e t q u a n g h i d n cflu
Bifii
ILLIQ,.i
SALESGROWTH
LEVERAGE
ROA
RELATED
CASH
• TOEHOLD
Constant
Industty, Year effects Adj.R' N
Quyft dinh lua chpn khu vuc M&A M« hinh (1)
•0,265***
(•3,48)
-2,456*
(•1,66) IY 24,25%
302
MO Mnh (2) -0,185**
(-2.24) 0,209 (0,74)
•2,473**
(•2,22)
•0,398*
(•1,70) 3,305***
(3.24) 0,246 (0,49)
•1,524***
(-2.76) -1,490 (-0,77) IY 33,61%
294 Clii chii: ky hieu ***, ** va • Un luot ch! mvic j nghia thdng kfi 1%, 5% va 10%. Cac ni6 hinh cf fr&n da bao g6m anh hucmg c6' dinh nganh (}!) va anh hu&ng c6 dinh nam ( 5 ) nham ki^m sodt tac d6ng chi ph6i cua nganh (I) va nam (Y) d6'i vdi anh hucing ciia thanh khoan c6 phifi'u dfin su lua chon khu vuc M&A.
Nghien aiu Kinh t^sff 7(434) - Thing 7/2013 61
Thanh khoan co phieu ,
5. Ke't l u a n v a h a m y c h i n h s a c h Sfl dting bo dfl lieu t o a n didn ve cac thuong vu b Viet N a m trong giai doan 2005- 2018, ket qua nghien eflu cho thay, cac cdng ty t h a u tdm nfldc ngoai thdng qua h i n h thflc M&A xuyen bien gidi cd xu hfldng lUa chon cac cdng ty mtic tieu Viet Nam cd t h a n h khoan cd' phieu cao de giam thieu r u i ro gia nhap thi trfldng mdi, dieu n a y p h u hdp vdi gia thuye't t h a m n h a p thi trfldng. Kd't qua nay khang dinh t i n h t h a n h khoan ed phie'u ddng mot vai trd quan trong trong qua t r i n h ra quye't dinh khu vUc sap n h a p cua cac edng ty t h a u tdm.
Dd'i vdi cac n h a q u a n tri cdng ty, nghien eflu nhan tha'y yd'u to'hidu qua ehflc n a n g ctia thi trudng chflng khoan the hidn thdng qua t h a n h khoan thi trUdng m a n g tinh quyd't dinh dd'n gia tri cdng ty va lap ke' hoaeh chien luge eua doanh nghiep. Chi phi giao dich tha'p (dUdc the hien q u a t i n h t h a n h khoan cao cua co phid'u) lam eho vide sb hflu hoae b a n thao ed' phid'u bdi nhflng n h a dau tU dai.
h a n trd nen de dang hdn. Tuy nhidn, khdng nhu nhflng n h a dau tfl ngan h a n , n h a dau tfl dai h a n thUdng quan t a m dd'n tridn vong gia tang gia tri cdng ty, ho cd thd gdp p h a n cai thidn va'n de quan tri cdng ty ciing n h u gia tang cha't lUdng edng bd' thdng t i n cua eac cdng ty ma ho dang n a m gifl co phid'u. Bdi vi ldi ich dai b a n va quyen ldi dang ke eua nhflng n h a dau tfl nay trong cdng ty ma ho dang sd hflu cd' phid'u, n h a dau tu dai b a n cd ddng lile va dieu kidn dd theo ddi, giam sat b a n dieu h a n h va boat dong cua edng ty, dieu nay giup gia tang sti minh bach cua cdng ty va gdp phan b a n chd' va'n de ngfldi dai didn.
He qua la cdng ty trd ndn m i n h bach hdn va dieu nay kich thieh cac n h a ddu t u nudc ngoai mua cd' phan, gia t a n g cha't lUdng quan t r i cdng ty.
Dd'i vdi eac n h a d a u tU, kd't qua nghidn cflu eho tha'y rang, vide tim kie'm cac cdng ty mtic tidu cung nhU s a n g loc cd' phid'u dUa tren t i n h t h a n h khoan cd t h e giup xac dinh dUdc cdng ty muc tieu tiem nang./.
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Ngay nhan b ^ : Ngay duy£t dang:
14-05-2019 20-06-2019
Nghiin cHu Kinh t^so 7(494} - Thing 7/2019 63
