I NGHIEN Cliu-TRAO DO'I
Lam j^i de thijc hien mue tieu kiem ehe lam phat ci miie 8 - 9% eho nam 3012
• TS.VO TA TRI NGUYEN THI MINH HANH Dai hpc thifdng mai
1. Bai hpc ttif thtfc td' lam phat 6 Viet Nam thdi gian qua
Trircff klii xay ra khmi^ lioanji tai chinh Lien tc va suy ihoai kinh tft toan cAu. lam phaL n Viet Nam d cac mifc: Nam 2004 tang 9,5%, nam 2005 tang 8.4°/o, nam 2006 tang 6.6%. Hau qua CLia goi kich cdu trong chinh sach U^n Le, nam 2007 ty le lam phat tang 12.63%, nam 2008 tang 19.89%. Nam 2009, ty Ic Iam phat difdc ki4m che va dot ngpt gidm xudng cdn 6,52%. sau dd la mpt chu 1^ gia tang mdi 11,75% nam 2010 va 18,58%
nam 2011.
Gia cd cua rat nlilgu yg'u td ddu vao phdi NK phuc vu cho sdn xuat XK va ndng nghiep tang cao da Iam cho chi phi sdn xxiSt taiig m^nh. Va de ho tr^
XK Chinh phfl Viet Nam ci5ng nhif nhidu nifdc trdn the gidl budc phdi "pha gla" d6ng ndi t^.
Ro rdng kinh te Viet Nam cung bj cudn vao vong xoay bl^n ddng ciia ndn kinh tg^ the gidi, nen lam phat la tSt y^u.
Ti;y nhien, nhOlig tac dang tCf bdn ngoai, theo y kien nhieu chuyen gia kinh t6, khdng phdi la nguyen nhan chinh 1dm gia tdng lam phdt d Viet Nam thdi gian qua. Nguyen nhan chii yS'u
la do cac yeu td bdn trong cua nen kinh t^.
Hieu qud ddu tif cdng d Viet Nam qua thap. Theo sd lieu tong hdp cfla Tdng cue thdng ke cho thay, tiT nam 2006 - 2010 gia tang binh qudn tdng vdn ddu tif toan xa hdl la 13,3%; trong khi tang tntdng GDP binh quan tifdng ling chi la 7,01%. Vdi md hinh tang tnfdng difa chfi yg'u vdo tang sd Iifdng ddu tif cang gay sflc ep Igm phdt len ndn kinh te, bdi day Id nguyen nhan day ctii phi tang cao, cung la nguyen nhan bd sung gia tang CPI, tang sflc ep Iam phdt len ndn kinh te.
Mflc cung tien mat va cac phfldng tien thanh todn qua cao.
Theo sd Ueu Thdng kd tai chinh qudc te" cfia Td chflc Tien te
Qudc te (IMF) tfl nam 2007 den 2010, chi ro tang tnfdng tdng phfldng tien thanh toan d Viet Nam Idn hdn rat nhldu tang trfldng GDP trong ndn kinh te va lihodng each nay dang cd xu hfldng gian rdng them. Trong khodng thdi gian 2 nam rfldl.
tinh tfl ddu nam 2005 cho den cudi thdng 6 nam 2007, GDP cua Vi^t Nam tang 22%, cdn mflc cung tidn m^t cho Iflu thdng va tidn gfli ngan hang da tang len den 110%. Nhfl v^y mflc cung tidn mat tang gap 5 Idn so vdi mflc tang GDP, tflc Id mdt mflc cung tidn qua nhidu da trflc tigp lam xau them tinh trang Iam phat 6 Viet Nam. Cung theo ngudn trdn cung thdi gian nay met nfldc cd t^ le lg,m phdt khd cao la Trung ^^
TyHKiqiSfr 16/2012 13
i NBHltN cau-TRAO Dtfl
^ * Qudc thi mflc tang cung Udn mat so vdi GDP cda hQ cung chi chfla ddn 2 ldn. Trong cung giai dogn nay, GDP cfla Trung Qudc tang 29%, nhflng mflc cung tidn chi tdng 50%. Bd Nguydn Bich Ldm. Phd Tdng cyc trfldng Tdng cyc Thdng kd cung bd sung rdng nam 2010, ddng ngogi t$
dd vdo Vi$t Nam ldn dd gdy srfr ep mgnh me budc Ngdn hang Nhd nfldc phdi mua ngogi t? vdo d^ ddm bdo t^ gid USD/VND. Vi v$y. cung tidn ra ndn kinh td cung tdng ldn rdt nhidu.
Mac du con cd nhldu dlf^m chfla thdng nhdt nhflng nhin chung cdc nghidn cflu xoay quanh chfl dd ndy vd cd bdn ddu thdng nhdt kh^ng dinh nguyen nhdn hdng ddu cua lam phdt trong nhflng nam qua chinh Id sfl gia tang qua mflc tin dung vd ddu tfl tidn te. Theo sd lieu thdng ke nam 2007 tdc dd tang trfldng Udn te (M2) Id 43,7%, tin dung !a 53,9%, mflc tdng k^ luc nay Id mpt trong nhflng nguyen nhan quan trpng gay ra Igm phdt cao vao nam 2008. Den nam 2009. tinh hinh cung tien qua mflc ndu tren lap Igi {tuy tdc dp CO thdp hdn ndm 2007), ddn den Igm phdt ndm 2010 vd 2011 bi d^y len cao. Theo thdng Un Tdng cyc Thdng kd cdng bd trong budt hpp bdo ngay 31/12/2010, trong t^ Id lam phat 11.75% nam 2010 cua Viet Nam, yeu td Odn te ddng gdp tdi 4,65% vd cdc ydu td khdc gdp 7,1%. Didu ndy cung hodn toan phu h4?p vdi ddnh gid cfla U^
ban Gidm sat tdi chinh qudc gia bao cdo tnfdc qudc hdi hdi cudi ndm 2011 vfla qua. Trong budi hpp bdo sdng ngdy 12/1/2012, Thdng ddc ngdn hang Nguydn Vdn Binh ket luan vdi mflc tdng tren 18% nam 2011, phdn do 41
chinh sdch tidn t^, tai khda chidm khodng gdn 12%. cdn 6%
Id do cdc ydu td khdc trong dd cd gid cd qudc td bidn ddng, chinh sach dldu chinh gld cfla chinh phiJ...
Tdc do tdng dfl nqf Un dyng rdt cao trong khi sy phdn chia ldi nhudn gifla ngdn hdng vd cdc DN tn/c tidp sdn xudt klnh doanh hdng hda vd djch vy khdng h(?p If lam trl^t tidu ddng Iflc klnh td. Rdt nhldu DN hogt ddng cam chflng hoac chdp nhan Id nhdt Id cdc DN vfla vd nhd da ldm gidm ddng kd sdn ph^m xa hdl. Ilnh trgng cdc ngan hang quay vdng vdn ldn nhau, chdnh Idch lai sudt nh^n gfli vd cho vay cfla cdc ngdn hdng thfldng mai cho cdc DN vay cung rdt cao trong khi cac DN khd Udp xuc cdc ngudn vdn Idm gldm hieu Iflc cfla ndn kinh td.
Tinh trgng "vang hda" vd "Dd la hda" md rpng do nidm Un vdo Udn gidy syt gldm da vd tinh difa vdo thi trfldng Iifu thdng thdm mdt khdi Ifldng ldn Udn mdt do vay cang lam cho Udn gldy mdt gla bdi tdc ddng kep cfla tdm ly
Igm phdt vd dfl thfla tidn m^t.
Cung vdl qud trinh do Id vl^c gia vdng trdn thd gldi bidn ddng va tdng lidn tyc lam cho gld vang trong nfldc cung tang vpt cang gay dp Iflc ddl vdl ddng ndl t^.
2. Vlf t Nam cftn Idm gi d^
ki^m ch^ l^m phdt d mtfc 8 - 9% nfim 2012
Tfl nhflng thdng cudi nam 2011 vd dac bidt la cdc thang ddu nam 2012 lam phat dd ha nhidt vdl mflc tang chi sd CPI ludn d mflc dfldi 1%/thang va cd xu hfldng gldm. Cy thd. tfl thang 8 ddn thdng 12 nam 2011 mflc tang CPI tfldng flng la 0,93%;
0.82%: 0.36%: 0.39%: 0.53% (so vdi thdng trfldc). Tfl sd li^u cfla Tdng cyc Thdng kd Vl^t Nam cho thdy. chi sd gla ueu dung thang 1/2012 cfla VI0t Nam chi tdng nh? 1% so vdi thang 12/2011 (phdn nhldu do dnh hfldng cfla Tdt Nguyen dan), thang 2 tang 1.37%. thang 3/2012 tang 0,16% vd thdng 4 tang nh?
0,05% (so vdl thang trfldc). Ddy dflqJc ghi nhan la mflc tdng kha thdp ngay cd sau khi gla xdng, ddu. gas dfldc dldu chinh tdng.
NGHltNCdU-TRAUOOl
Nhfl vay. vdi mflc thdp nay CPI ca quy 1/2012 da rdi xudng mflc thap nhat so vdi cung 1^ 3 ndm gdn day.
Tuy v$,y, y kidn cfla nhidu nha nghidn cflu va chuyen gia kinh td ddu thdng nhdt rang, mac du CPI quy I da tang khd thdp nhiftig khong thd chfl quan bdi mflc tdng chfla thflc sfl dn dinh vd nguy cd tdi Igm phdt cao chfla hoan toan dflt^c dap tdt, dang udm ^n nhidu ydu td gia tang Igm phdt, bao g6m cd cac ydu td ben trong vd ben ngoai.
& trong nfldc chung ta cd the de nhan thay cac nguy cd ldn chfl ydu chfla dflpc gidi quydt nhfl: 1) tinh trang np xdu cd tinh
"xau chudi" dang d mflc cao khong chi trong he thong ngan hang ma gifla cac DN vdi nhau trong dd ddng kd nhdt la cac DN kinh td nha nfldc dang de dpa sfl dd v3 CO tinh day chuyen trong toan he thdng klnh te. il) rat nhieu cac DN kinh doanh kem hieu qua (nhdt la cdc DN, tap dodn kinh te nha nfldc), nang sudt thdp la nguyen nhan lam tang chl phi tdc dpng xau den tinh hinh gia cd tren thj trfldng. iii) viec quy djnh mflc Ifldng tdi thidu vung (Nghi dinh 70/2011/ND-CP, ngay 22/8/2011) nang tfl 830.000 den 1.350.000 (Nghi djnh 108/2010/ND-CP ngay 29/10/2010) len tfl 1.400.000 den 2.000.000; quy dinh mflc Ifldng tdi thieu chung (Nghi dinh 31/2012/ND-CP, ngay 12/4/2012) tang tfl 830.000 d len 1.050.000 d/ngfldl/thang, phu cap cdng vy tfl 10% ldn tdi thieu 25%; dldu chinh Ifldng hflU, trd cdp bdo hidm xa hpi vd trd cdp hdng thdng ( N ^ l dinh sd 35/2012/ND-CP ngay
18/4/2012) bat ddu cd hieu Iflc
tfl 01/5/2012... se gay xung Iflc gia tang gia cd theo cd 2 hfldng la tang Udn va gay tdm ly tang gid. Vd tdi ddy chinh phfl chdc chdn phdl md rdng ddu tfl thdm de thflc hien tdl cdu true ndn klnh te thdi ky hau suy thodi.
hd trp DN... M§c du Bd trfldng Bd tal chinh Vfldng Dinh Hue khl.ng djnh ngudn tang Ifldng hang nam hoan toan di/a vdo tang thu ngan sdch Nha nfldc, Chinh phfl khOng in thdm Udn dd trd Ifldng cho ngfldi lao dpng.
do dd bdn chdt cfla vl^c tang Ifldng khdng gdn vdl vdn dd Udn te, vd cung Udn. nen khdng gdn vdi Igm phat, nhflng thflc tidn trong nfldc bao nhldu nam qua da thd hien rd quan he nhfl thd nao gifla tang Ifldng vd tang gid.
Va cung theo Unh toan cfla Bp Tdi chinh "chi cdn tang thdm 50 nghin ddng/ngfldi thi cd ndm se can them 11 nghin ty ddng cho chi Ifldng", vay tang tdi thidu 220 nghin ddng/ngfldI se cdn bao nhieu vd lay tfl dau? Ddng tinh vdi quan didm cfla B6 trfldng Vfldng Dinh Hue vd tdc ddng cfla viec tang Ifldng den tang gia theo 2 khia cgnh: mpt Id. ddl vdl khu vflc sdn xudt, khi tidn Ifldng tdng, gid thanh va chi phi ddy se tang len, tac ddng mpt phdn tdi gla bdn va hai la, viec tang Ifldng lam quy ueu dung xa hpi tang len, tdng cdu tang len.
TUy nhien, cung phdi bd sung rdng can cd chinh sach Udn te than trpng, ddng bd vdi gldi phdp tai chinh khi tdng Ifldng d^c biet Id trong tinh trang nd cong dang cao vd sdn xuat kinh doanh dang gap khd khan nhfl Chung ta d thdl dldm nay. Theo ket qud khdo sat cfla VCCI. Uen hdnh tren 400 DN. trong do DN Idn chiem 70%, cho thdy chi
tinh trong 6 thdng ddu ndm 2011 chi phi Ifldng da tang len 40%. Chung ta cung can hdt sflc quan tdm ddn ydu td tdm IJ' ve mdl lien hd gifla tang Ifldng - tang gla.
Tdc ddng tfl ben ngodi Id tinh trgng ntf xdu vd nguy cd khflng hodng tal chinh d cdc nfldc chau Au ma trfldc hdt la cdc nfldc thupc khdl ddng Udn chung (Eurozone) nhfl Hy Lgp, Y. Tay Ban Nha vd tham chi Id cac ddu tu nhfl Phdp. Dflc... Day Id khdl cdc nfldc ma trfldc day sfl dyng it cac gdi kinh cdu de chdng khflng hodng tdl chinh vd suy thoai klnh te va tinh hinh gla cd d cac nfldc nay khdng tang cao nhfl nhldu nfldc khac.
Tuy vay. dflng trfldc nguy cd vd nd cfla nhidu nfldc trong khdl va de dpa ddn sfl tdn tgi cua ddng tidn chung dnh hfldng xau ddn nhieu ndn kinh te khdc bdt bupc khu vflc nay phal cd cdc gdi cfl^i trd quy mo ldn. T? gld gifla cdc ddng Udn bien ddng budc tat cd cac qudc gia phdi didu chinh chinh sach Udn te phu hdp nhdm thldt lap can ddi mdl vdi cac ddng Udn vd day se la nguyen nhan gia tang Ifldng tidn nhfl da vd dang xay ra trong cudc chlen Udn te lau nay.
Tinh hinh chinh tri d Bdc Phi va Trung D6ng vdn hdt sflc cang t h i n g ldm xudt hien nguy cd tang gia ddu tren the gidi, Dlen bidn xdu va nhflng hau qud nghiem trpng vd thdi Uet thien tal tren thd gidi nhfl Nhat Bdn, Thdi Lan, Thd Nhi Ky. My... da dnh hfldng ldn den tang trfldng.
Nhat Bdn, mpt qudc gia khd kien dinh vd chinh sach tdi khda vd tien td lau nay hien cung da phdi sfl dyng cac gldi phap ha gla ddng Yen...
fCdn nUa) iSS 16/2012 15
