KHOA HOC
DU BAO MlTA TREN LlTU VlTC H 6 D A U T I E N G TlT TAI LIEU DU^ BAO T H 6 I T I E T TOAN CAU PHUC VU DU BAO DONG CHAY LU
DEN VA DlfeU TIET HO TRONG MUA LU
Dinh Cong San, Liru Ngoc Thanh Vien Khoa hgc Thuy lai mien Nam Nguyen Van Lanh Cong ty TNHH Mot Thanh Vien Khai thdc Thuy Igi Dau Tiing - Phu&c Hoa
Tom tat: Mdt trong nhirng nguyen nhdn gdy ra lu lut & viing hg du ho Ddu Tieng Id viec xd lU trong miia mua di ddm bdo an todn hd chua. Sau gdn 40 ndm khai thdc van hdnh ho Ddu Tieng. co rat nhiiu nghien cim tinh todn lii, du bdo Id ve ho vd de xudt cdc gidi phdp dieu tiet ho hgp ly, nhdm gidm thieu luu lugng lu xd ve hg du, de gidm thieu ngap lut cho viing hg du, ddc biet la khu vuc thanh phi H6 Chi Minh. Bdi bdo tong hgp ket qud ddnh gid khd ndng du bdo mua tie cdc mo hinh tren thi gi&i cua di tdi KC08.07/16-20 'Nghien cieu de xudt gidi phdp ndn§ cao hieu qua sie dung nu&c, ddm bdo an todn cdng trinh ddu mdi vd hg du hd Ddu Tieng trong dieu kien bien doi khi hau, th&i tiet cue doan" Nghien eini ndy rd sodt cdc mo hinh du bdo khi tugng dd dugc ung dung tren the gi&i vd img dung cho viec du bdo mua a luu vuc ho Ddu Tieng. Ket qud tie nghien cuu dp dung du bdo mua cho d0 dp thdp nhiet d&i thdng 11/2018 vd so sanh voi so lieu quan trac mua trong luu vuc bu&c ddu cho thdy mo hinh ECMWF (Trung tdm chau Au du bdo th&i tiet trung hgn) co khd ndng die bdo tot lugng mua trung binh ngdy vd th&i gian du bdo 3 den 4 ngdy truac khi xay ra_ dp thdp nhiet d&i. Ket qud bu&c ddu cho phep du bdo ddng chdy den ho vdphuc vu cho viec dieu tiet lu mot cdch hieu qud. gidm thieu ngap lut a hg du ho Ddu Tieng.
Summary: One of the causes of flooding in the downstream area of Dau Tieng reservoir is the downstream flood discharge to ensure reservoir safety in the rainy season. After nearly 40 years of Dau Tieng reservoir operation, there are many studies on flood simulation and forecasting flood flow to the reservoir and proposing solutions for properly reservoir regulation in order to minimize the flood discharge downstream and mitigate downstream flooding, especially in Ho Chi Minh City area.
The article summarizes the assessment of rainfall forecast ability of various models in the world from the scientific research project KC08 07/16-20 "Research and propose solutions to improve water use efficiency, ensure the safety of main works and downstream Dau Tieng reservoir in the conditions of climate change and extreme weather. This study reviewed various meteorological prediction models in the world and applied to forecast rainfall in the Dau Tieng reservoir basin.
The results from the application of rainfall forecast for the tropical depression in November 2018 and compare with rainfall monitoring data in the basin initially showed that ECMWF model (European Central Medium-term Weather Forecast) is capable of good forecasting average daily rainfall prior 3-4 days before tropical depression event. Initial results allow forecasting flood flow to the reservoir and sei-ve for effective flood regulation and mitigation downstream flooding of Dau Tieng reservoir.
L DAT VAN D E gay thiet hai to Idn v l co sd ha tdng va lam Hang nam, lu lut d ha du hd Ddu Tiing, dac ^^^J^ ^^^ ^^ P^at triln kinh t l cua mdt thanh biet la d khu vyc thanh phd Hd Chi Minh da P^° ^^"S "^^"B "hdt ca nude. Mdt trong nhirng nguyen nhan gay ra lu lut d ha du hd Ngay nhan bai'20/9/2019 ^ ^ " "^^^"g ^^ ^^^^ ^^ lu trong miia mua.
Ngay thdng qua phan bien: ll/iO/2019 Them vao do, mua Idn tai cho va sy xam Ngay duyet dang: 15/10/2019 nhap ciia thuy trieu cudng biln Ddng, da tao
38 TAP CH( KHOA HOC VA C O N G N G H ^ THUY LOI SO 56 - 2019
KHOA HOC M S I ! 3 ! S ! I ^ 1
ra nhiing dat lu lut nang nl d vimg ha du[[l]].
Ddng chay lu chiu tac ddng ciia rdt nhilu nhan td nhu mua, nhiet dp, dp dm, khi hau, dia chdt, thd nhuong, tham phu thyc vat va cac boat ddng cua con ngudi tren luu vyc... Trong dd, nhan td dia chdt, thd nhudng, tham phu thyc vat it cd sy thay ddi. Nen sy thay ddi ciia chi dp ddng chay, ngudn nude theo thdi gian chu yeu do cac yeu td khi hau quyet dinh, dac biet la mua, sau do la tac ddng ciia ngudn nude dy trii trong cac tang chiia nude trong luu vyc. Miia lu tren sdng Sai Gdn dugc xac dinh tir thang 7 din thang 11. Hai thang 6 va 7 la thdi ky chuyin tiep giira miia lu va miia kiet. Trong miia lii cac thang 8, 9 va 10 la cac thang cd lupng ddng chay lil Idn nhat va dinh \u thudng xuat hien.
De giam thieu lii lyt cho viing ha du, trong dd cd thanh phd Hd Chi Minh, nhieu giai phap da dugc nghien cim, de xuat nhu chuyen lii sang sdng Vam Cd, phan lii qua rach Tra, lam hd dieu boa de cham lii, dap de ngan lii, nang cao dap de nang cao dung tich phdng lii v.v...[[2]].
Tuy nhien, cac giai phap phi cdng trinh cdn it dugc nghien ciiu.
Ddi vdi luu vuc hd Dau Tieng, thdi gian van hanh phuc tap nhat trong miia lii la khi hd da tich nude dat cao trinh thiet ke (+24,40 m), nhung do tac ddng tir bao hay ap thap nhiet ddi, thdi gian nay thucmg xuat hien cac hinh the thdi tiet gay mua Idn, nen viec tinh toan va dieu tiet lii can dac biet quan tam dam bao an toan cdng trinh, phdng va giam ngap lyt cho ha du. Theo quy trinh van hanh lien hd chiia luu vyc sdng Ddng Nai trong do cd hd Dau Tieng ciia Thii tudng Chinh phu nam 2016 (dieu 12) da quy dinh ve van hanh giam lu cho ha du ddi vdi hd Odu Tiing [[4]]: "Trong tru&ng hgp co bdo khan cdp hoac dp thdp nhiet d&i trong viing, van hdnh ho v&i luu lugng xd nhd han lifu lugng Id den, nhung lieu lugng khong qud 200 m^/s vd muc nu&e ho khong vugt qud cao trinh 25,10 m". Vi vay, viec dy bao mua de
du bao ddng chay den trong giai doan cudi miia lii la rat quan trgng. Neu khdng dy bao dugc, vi ly do an toan, hd se xa nude vdi luu lugng qua Idn, lam thieu hut nude sii dung cho giai doan sau. Ngugc lai, neu hd xa nude vdi luu lugng qua nhd, dan den muc nude trong hd vugt qua myc nude dang gia cudng, gay mat an toan hd chira.
2. PHU'ONG PHAP NGHIEN CUtI Nghien ciiu sir dung phuang phap thu thap tai lieu, phan tich va thdng ke sd lieu dy bao mua cua cac md hinh du bao khi tugng da dugc ling dung tren the gidi. Sd lieu dy bao.mua dugc trich xuat tir cac md binh du bao, so sanh vdi sd lieu thuc do mua ciia 13 tram tren luu vyc hd Dau Tieng. Tir tga dp ciia cac tram do mua, sir dung phuang phap da giac Theissen de tinh toan dien tich anh hudng ciia timg tram va tinh toan lugng mua cua luu vyc. Cac tham sd thdng ke duge sir dung de so sanh va danh gia tuong quan gitra sd lieu du bao va thyc do.
2.1 He so tu-tfng quan Pearson (r) (Correlation coefficient)
He sd tuong quan (r - cdng thiic 2.1) cho phep danh gia mdi quan he tuyen tinh giiia tap gia trj du bao va tap gia tri quan trac. Gia tri cua nd bien thien trong khoang -1 den 1, gia tri tdt nhat bang 1. Gia tri tuyet ddi ciia he sd tuong quan cang Idn thi mdi quan he tuyen tinh giiia hai bien cang chat che. He sd tuong quan duong phan anh mdi quan he ciing chieu (dong bien); ngugc lai, he sd tuong quan am bieu thi mdi quan he ngugc chieu (nghich bien) giira dy bao va quan trac.
^TU(Oi-o)^^i.f^i(p,-n^
(2.1) Trong cac cdng thuc tir (2.1) den (2.3), cac ky hieu dugc dimg gdm: n la dp dai sd lieu quan trac, Oi la gia tri sd lieu quan trac (thyc do) thii i; Pi sd lieu tinh toan (dy bao) thir i, va 0 va P la binh quan sd lieu quan trac va tinh toan (i ^ 1 den n).
TAP CHf KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH^ THUY LOI SO 56 - 2019
KHOA HOC
2.2 H e sd hieu q u a mo hinh R (model coefficient of efficiency)
He sd hieu qua md hinh (model coefficient of efficiency NSE - R^ - cdng thirc 2.2), danh gia muc do lien kit giiia cac gia tri dy bao va thyc do. He sd nay dugc d l xuat bdi Nash va Sutcliffe(1970).
NSE = R^ (2.2)
2.3 Sai s6 tuyet d6i trung binh MAE
MAE=^'ZU\Oi-Pi\ (2.3)
Gia tri MAE nam trong khoang (0,+QO). MAE bieu thi bien do trung binh ciia sai sd md hinh nhung khdng ndi len xu hudng lech cua gia tri dy bao va quan trac. Khi MAE = 0, gia tri ciia md hinh hoan toan trimg khdp vdi gia tri quan trac, md hinh dugc xem la "ly tudng". MAE cang tien tdi gia tri 0, md phdng cang tdt.
3. KET QUA NGHIEN CUtJ VA THAO LUAN 3.1 L y a chon eac mo hinh d y bao thdi tiet 3.1.1 Cdc mo hinh du bdo vd lua chon md hinh
Ngay nay thdng tin du bao thdi tiet dugc chia se rong rai qua mang Internet tir nhieu ngudn khac nhau nhu: http://www.accuweather.com;
http ://wundergro und .com;
https://weather.com;
http ://weather. weatherbug. CO m;
http://intellicast.com; https://www.windy.com;
https://freemeteo.vn, cac Website cung cap thdng tin dudi hai hinh thirc mien phi va cd tra phi.
Tuy nhien, tdng ket kinh nghiem img dung cac thdng tin dy bao ciia cac don vi trong nude cho thay trang web https://www.windy.com dang dugc sir dung rgng rai va cd dp tin cay cao. Trong website ciia Vien Quy hoach Thiiy Igi [[5]] cung cd muc dy bao mua dai han va ngan han sir dung ngudn dir lieu tir https://www.windy.com. Trong bao cao cua Trung tam quy hoach va dieu tra tai nguyen nude qudc gia (Bd TN&MT) "Tdng quan v l su dung md hinh ma ngudn md vdi dii lieu
mua toan cau trong dy bao ngudn nude mat tai Viet Nam" cho biet tir nam 2011, Trung tam D y bao khi tugng thiiy van Trung uong da dugc Bd Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng dau tu mua cac san pham va sd lieu dang sd (dang ma GRIB truyen qua mang Internet) ciia Trung tam D y bao han vica Chau Au ECMWF (ECMWF European Centre for Medium- range Weather Forecasts) phuc vu cdng tac du bao khi tugng han ngan - han dai nghiep vu.
Cac san pham du bao dugc cung cap bao gdm cac dir lieu khi tugng trong dd cd sd tri mua ...
theo dang ludi vdi thdi gian dy bao theo han ngdn, han vira va ban dai toan dien nhat ma Trung tam dy bao Trung uong cd the khai thac [[6]]. Do do, nghien cuu nay tap trung vao khai thac ngudn dir lieu tir https://w^w.windy.eom.
3.1.2 Khai thdc thong tin die bdo tu Website Windy.com
Windy.eom cung cap thdng tin ve tdc dp gio, mat dp may, nhiet do, lugng mua, lupng tuyet rai va song v.v... Cac ban dd tuong tac ciia Windy.eom cung cap mdt du bao day dii cho mot tuan tai thdi diem hien tai. Du lieu cua Windy.eom bao gdm cac thdng sd do dugc tit cac ngudn khac nhau ciing vdi dii lieu ndi suy, dy bao. Cac md hinh sir dung la GFS (He thdng Dy bao Toan cau) vdi ludi phan giai 22 km, ECMWF (Trung tam chau Au du bao thdi tiet trung han) vdi do phan giai 09 km va rat nhieu md hinh dia phuong vdi dp phan giai tham chi cdn 3 km. Windy.eom cd dupe du lieu ndi suy cho bdt ky noi nao tren t h i gidi.
ECMWF dugc bilt d i n la "md hinh chau Au"
cd do phan giai la 0,1° (~ 9km). Nd dy bao mdi 03 gid trong 144 gid ddu tien, tir 06 gid mdi ngay d i n ngay thu 10.
GFS dugc diiu hanh bdi Dich vu Thdi tilt Qudc gia Hoa Ky (NWS), cd do phan giai - 13 km. Nd dy bao moi gid trong 120 gid ddu tien, 03 gid cho den ngay thu 10.
Windy.eom sir dung ca hai he thdng va ngudi
40 TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 56 - 2019
KHOA HOC diing cd quyen ehuyin ddi va chgn mdt trong
hai he thdng ho mudn sir dung. Ngoai ECMWF va GFS la hai md hinh toan cau vugt trdi so vdi cac md hinh dia phuong ve do phan giai va pham vi, Windy.eom cung sir dung cac md huih dir lieu khac va cho phep ngudi diing lua chgn bat cu md hinh nao. Bdn md hinh dia phuang Windy.eom su dung la: NEMS, phat triln bdi Meteoblue.com cd do phan giai ~ 4 km chi cd d Chau Au; NAM CONUS vdi do phan giai - 5 km va chi cd d luc dia My; NAM Alaska, do phan giai ~ 6 km va chi gidi han d Alaska;
NAM Hawaii va do phan giai la ~ 3 km.
Day la trang web cung cap cac API (Application Programming Interface) ve thdi tiet. Yeu cau API dugc thyc hien qua giao thirc HTTP. Cac tinh nang dir lieu tra ve kieu JSON hoac kieu XML (nghien cim nay chgn kieu dii lieu tra ve la JSON). Nhieu tinh nang ciia API cd the dugc ket hgp thanh mdt yeu cau HTTP. Day la mdt each thuan tien de giup cho ngudi sii dung cd the thyc hien viec truy van dii lieu nhanh chong hon, gpn nhe hon.
Mdt sd budc phan tich cac chudi gia tri JSON Weather tra ve nhu sau:
Bu-dc 1: Tao mdt Idp (class) gidng nhu mdt ddi tugng the hien vi tri can lay thdng tin thdi tiet chua cac thugc tinh nhu: temp, wind, pressure, precip, country, city...
Bu-ffc 2: Tao mdt Idp de luu cac thdng tin nhu Location, Wind, Rain...
Birdc 3: Tao mdt Idp dl chuyen ddi dii lieu tir JSON tra vl.
Bu-ffc 4: Tao mdi mdt Idp de lay chudi JSON tir API theo dia diem can biet.
Bu-dc 5: Xay dung giao dien ca ban de hien thj cac Idp xii ly.
Vdi 5 budc phan tich va khai thac nhu tren, toan bd dii lieu mua dy bao cho bat ky diem nao tren luu vuc dugc thdng ke va phan tich.
Tuong ling vdi 13 tram do mua thyc do tren luu vyc hd Dau Tieng, sd lieu dy bao 3 gid, du bao theo ngay dugc thu thap de xem xet tuong quan vdi sd lieu thuc do.
3.1.3 Khai thdc thong tin mua thuc do tren luu vuc ho Ddu Tieng
Sau khi cdng trinh dua vao khai thac tir nam 1985, den nam 1990 tren luu vyc hd Dau Tieng da hmh thanh 05 tram do mua thii cdng, den thang 8 nam 2013, nhiing tram mua nay dugc thay the bang cac tram do mua ty ddng, va den thang 9 nam 2017 luu vuc hd Dau Tieng dugc lap dat bd sung them 08 tram do mua ty ddng, nang tdng sd tram do mua tu ddng hien cd tren luu vyc la 13 tram/2.700 km^ luu vuc. Hinh 3.1 va Bang 3.1 trinh bay tpa dp dia ly ciia 13 tram do mua va "ty trpng"
dien tich cua mdi tram tinh theo phuong phap da giac Theissen. Vdi mat do cac tram do mua hien nay, ngudn dii lieu quan trac gdm mua gid, mua tran va mua ngay da dap img nhu cau tinh toan van hanh cdng trinh.
Bang 3.1: Toa do dia ly cac tram do mu-a tir ddng va dien tich tram tinh theo phirgng phap da giac Theissen tren luu vyc ho Dau Tieng [[7||
STT 1 2 3 4 5
Tram mira Tan Ha Tan Thanh Tan Hoa 1 Tan Hoa 2 Minh Tam
VI do 11,72 11,51 11,67 11,55 11,59
Kinh do 106,18 106,29 106,40 106,37 106,49
Dien tich (km^) 215,64 225,21 228,22 152,20 297,81
Trong so theo da giac Theissen
0,085 0,089 0,090 0,060 0,117
TAP CH( KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH6 THUY LOI SO 56 - 2019
KHOA HOC ^ E 1 ^ ' M » 1 ! I -
STT 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tram mira Thanh Luang LOG Thanh LOG Thien Dau Tieng Minh Hoa Ka Turn LOG Ninh Dong Ban Lull v y c
V t d o 11,72 11,75 11,85 11,32 11,44 11,63 11,84 11,55
Kinh do 106,56 106,47 106,52 106,34 106,41 106,26 106,59 106,16 Tong dien tich
Dien tich (km') 222,14 225,02 227,01 86,68 209,35 209,15 167,01 78,66 2544,10
Trong sd theo da giac Theissen
0,087 0,088 0,089 0,034 0,082 0,082 0,066 0,031 1.000
ChCiglil . Tram do mi/a
Pli4n vung SnU hi/frng
^ H H6 Diu Tlgng
Hinh 3.1: Vi tri 13 tram do mua thuc do tren hd Ddu Tiing va phdn chia dien tich theo da giac Theissen [[7]]
3.2 K§t qua phan tich tinmg quan giua mua du bao va thuc do
Nghien ciru nay chi co diSu kien sit dung dQ
lieu quan trac va du bao theo con Bao s6 9 nam 2018 dS phan tich. Day la con bao co tac dpng true tiip din vung Dong Nam bo va khi ho Dau Tieng da tich gin diy nuoc.
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE T H D Y LOI Sd 56 - 2019
I KHOA HOC M J » m j ! E l I M
Tir ngudn cung cap b&ng hinh anh thong qua bao tir cac mo hinh ECMWF, GFS, NEMS da trang tin Windy.eom, co thd du doan tir ngay dugc th6ng ke, tinh toan va lap cac chi so 24/11/2018 trdr di, bao se tac dong va gay thSng ke. Bang 2.2 va 2.3 thS hien mot trutmg mua Ion tren luu vuc ho Dau Tieng va co the hgp diSn hinh v6 tuong quan giua mua thuc gay mua Ign nhat trong ngay 25 hoac do (r) va sai s6 du bao img voi ban tin du bao 26/11/2018. Dir lieu mua tit cac ban tin du ngay 25/11/2018.
Bang 3.2: Chi so tirotig quan (r) mu'a thuc do va mira du* bao trong 3 ngay, tir 25/11/2018 din 27/11/2018 (Ban tin du bao ngay 25/11/2018)
Tram mira
Dau Tieng Dong Ban K a T u m Lgc Ninh LOG Thanh LOG Thien Minh Hoa Minh Tam Tan Ha Tan Hoa 1 Tan Hoa 2 Tan Thanh Thanh Luang Binh quan liru vu-c
Tuong quan giira so heu thuc do va d u bao theo cac mo hinh ECMWF
r 0,63 0,80 0,63 0,14 0,32 0,11 0,89 0,19 0,89 0,23 0,17 0,66 0,25 0,60
MAE 7,45 4,80 4,29 4,69 5,20 3,80 3,11 3,37 3,37 4,17 3,88 6,52 4,81 4.57
GFS r 0,09 0,25 0,20 0,37 0,40 0,36 0,41 0,09 0,38 0,27 0,10 0,17 0,31 0,30
MAE 18,08 15,09 11,03 11,39 10,29 9,39 2,94 3,54 4,56 5,27 4,24 9,48 9,37 8.82
NEMS r 0,07 0,38 0,32 0,11 0,25 0,13 0,36 0,34 0,57 0,60 0,30 0,41 0,04 0,48
MAE 13,24 9,65 10,46 10,45 9,10 4,65 4,49 4,74 4,74 5,54 5,54 9,48 10,23
7.87 Bang 3.3: Tong luomg mua (mm) binh quan luu vuc thu'c do va mua dy bao
trong 3 ngay, tii- ngay 25/11/2018 den ngay 27/11/2018 M8
hinh ECMWF
GFS NEMS
Thuc do (mm) 141,66 141,66 141,66
Ban tin d u bao Ngay 22
115,06 205,11 55,97
Ngay 23 133,98
47,95
Ngay 24 161,26 211,34 79,32
Ngay 25 118,52 126,01 102,59
Binh quan ngay 132,21 180,82 71,46
T y l e
% dat 93,33 127,64 50,44
TAP CHI KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI 5 6 56 - 2019
KHOA HOC
Tit ka qua phan tich cho thiy su biSn doi cua mua du bao co su khac biet so vai su bien doi cua mua thyc do. Mua dir bao nhin chung co xu huang nho han so vai mua thuc do tren luu vuc (ngoai trii mua du bao theo mo hinh GFS). Ket qua phan tich danh gia tong hgp theo cac chi so r va MAE CO thS thSy mo hinh ECMWF cho ket qua on dinh nhat, dac biet co sy sai khac nho giira tdng lugng mua binh quan dy bao trong 3 ngay (132,21 mm) va tdng lugng mua binh quan thyc do (141,66 mm). Tren ca so danh gia do, md hinh ECMWF dugc img dung vao thuc td Dd cd thd su dung dir lieu mua du bao trong thyc td, cSn thiet lap tuong quan giira dir lieu du bao va dir lieu thyc do theo phuang phap binh phucmg nhd nhat. Hinh 3.1 thd hien tuong quan sd lieu mua trong 3 gio. Bang 3.4 thd hien sd
lieu mua ngay thuc do va dy bao mua theo md hinh ECMWF trong can bao thang 11/2018 va Hinh 3.3 thd hien dudng xu the va phuang trinh hdi quy tuydn tmh vdi budc thdi gian 01 ngay tir md hinh dy bao mua ECMWF (tir ngay 25/11/2018 ddn ngay 27/11/2018).
Kdt qua thdng ke phan tich cho thjy vdi s6 lieu dy bao moi 3 gid, chi sd R^ rit thdp (R^ = 0,1952). d Bang 3.4 va Hinh 3.3 vgi sd lieu dy bao ngay thi chi so R" da trd nen kha tdt (R" = 0,9305). Tuy nhien, ket qua nghien ciiu mdi phan anh mdi lien he tir sd lieu thu thap dugc cua mdt can bao thang 11 nam 2018.
Trong tuang lai can phan tich nhieu hon vdi bg sd lieu Idn hem ciia cac md hmh khac nhau, vgi sd lieu ciia nhirng dot mua Idn, ap thip nhiet ddi hoac nhiing con bao khac.
50 40 E o
• 020
>: 0.00
• diem dl lliuang
•
•
V = 0.5262x + 3 4S19 R^ = 0.1952
5,00 10.00 15 00 20.00 25.00 L i n e a
X: M i / a d y b a o ( m m )
•
*
30 00 35.00
Hinh 3.2: Tuang quan giiea muu uu uuu vu muv au it tie ngdy 25/11/2018 din ngdy 27/11/2018
mua du bdo vd thue do trong 3 gid;
Bang 3.4: So lieu mira ngay thirc do va du- bao mira theo mo hinh ECMWF trong com bao thang 11/2018
Ngay do 25/11/2018 26/11/2018 27/11/2018 25/11/2018 26/11/2018
Mira thirc do luu vuc (mm)
0,03 125,23
16,40 0,03 125,23
Ngay du bao (md hinh ECMWF)
22/11/2018
23/11/2018
Du' bao cho ngay 25/11/2018 26/11/2018 27/11/2018 25/11/2018 26/11/2018
Mua du bao luu vuc (mm)
1,85 111,47
1,74 5,30 119,18
TAP CHl KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE THUY LOI SO 56 - 2019
KHOA HOC
Ngay do 27/11/2018 25/11/2018 26/11/2018 27/11/2018 25/11/2018 26/11/2018 27/11/2018
Mira thyc do liru vuc (mm)
16,40 0,03 125,23
16,40 0,03 125,23
16,40
Ngay du- bao (mo hinh ECMWF)
24/11/2018
25/11/2018
Dir bao cho ngay 27/11/2018 25/11/2018 26/11/2018 27/11/2018 25/11/2018 26/11/2018 27/11/2018
Mua dy bao luu vuc (mm)
9,50 7,14 161,26
3,13 5,21 99,44 13,86
Tuong quan giiira mira dy bao va thyc do theo mo hinh ECMWF
200.0
150.0
! 100.0 50.0 0.0
1 Y = 0.9717*X
R» - 0.9305
•
20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 Luong mua ngay du bao X (mm)
Hinh 3.3: Duong xu thi vd phuang trinh hdi quy tuyen tinh v&i bu&c th&i gian 01 ngdy tir mo hinh du bdo mua ECMWF (tie ngdy 25/11/2018 din ngdy 27/11/2018)
4. KET LUAN VA KIEN NGHI
K.it qua phan tich tircmg quan so Ueu mua du bao va thuc do tren luu vuc ho Dau Tieng trong con bao thang 11/2018 cho thay co the sir dung s6 lieu mua ngay du bao tir mo hinh ECMWF dg noi suy vh cac tram mat dat bang phuang trinh h6i quy Y - 0,9717*X, trong do:
X: La lugng mua du bao tu mo hinh ECMWF va Y la luong mua theo tram mat dat trong luu vuc h6 D 4 U TiSng. Do han che ve nguon diJ
lieu dung de phan tich (chi co du lieu cua mot con Bao nam 2018), nen ket qua phan tich co the chua phan anh dung ban chat ve moi lien he giua mua du bao toan cau va mua thyc do.
Trong thai gian tai, can tiep tuc thu thap, phan tich va danh gia ve moi quan he giiia mua dir bao va mua thuc do cua cac mo hinh khac nhau, nham cung co phuong phap va nang cao chat lugng trong cong tac du bao dong chay vh h6, chii dpng dieu tiet lu hgp ly.
TAP CHi KHOA HOC VA CONG NGH$ T H O Y LOl SO 56 - 2019 45
I KHOA HOC M»?»!.Vtl5M!l=M TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
[1] Dinh Cong San va nnk (2016), Bao cao tong hgp kit qua goi thau s6 2 "Nghien cuu xay dung khung quan ly rui ro lu tong hgp luu vyc song D6ng Nai -Sai Gon" - du an h6 trg ky thuat "Nghien cu-u dh xuk giai phap t6ng the kiem soat ngap lii luu vuc song D6ng Nai" - Vien Khoa hoc Thuy Igi mien Nam.
[2] Nguyen Phii Quynh va nnk (2018), Bao cao tong ket de tai cap thanh pho "Nghien cuu dk xuat cac giai phap phan lu, cham lu, giam lii nham giam ngap lut cho Tp. HCM khi ho D4U Tieng xa lia theo thiet ke hoac gap sy co", Vien Khoa hgc Thuy Igi mien Nam.
[3] Quygt dinh 137/2000/QD-BNN-QLN ngay 18/12/2000 cua Bp NN&PTNT vh viec ban hanh "Quy trinh van hanh dieu tiet tam thai ho chua nuac Dau Tieng"
http ://dautieng. mard. go v. vn/N ew sDetailaspx ?ne wsid^9 605 &catid=2 8
[4] Quyk dinh 471/QD-TTg ngay 24/03/2016 cua Thu tucmg Chinh phii vi viec ban hanh van hanh lien ho chua tren lim vuc song Dong Nai.
[5] http://iwarp.org.vn/c84/du-bao-mua
[6] http://nawapi.gov. vn/index.php?option^com_content&view^article&id=3284%3 Atng- quan-v-s-dng-mo-hinh-ma-ngun-m-vi-d-liu-ma-toan-cu-trong-d-bao-ngun-nc-mt-ti-vit- nam&catid=70%3Anhim-v-chuyen-mon-ang-thc-hin&Itemid^l35&lang=vi
[7] Trung tam cong nghe ph^n mhm thiiy Igi (2012), Du an "Xay dyng va lip dat he thdng giam sat ho chiia nuac Dau Tieng".
46 TAP CH[ KHOA HOC VA C O N G NGHE T H O Y LOl SO 56 - 2019
