Nghien euu An Do va Chau A. So 5 - 2017
MOT SO NET VE "CHINH SACH NGOAI GIAO NANG Ll/ONG" CUA AN BO
Nguyen Thj Oanh *
'TJien nay, nen kinh te An Do dang tdng trif&ng manh me vai toe do 7%/ndm vd JL J. theo du bdo cua IMF, sau ndm 2017, nen kinh te An Do se day Anh ra khdi top 5 nen kinh te hdng ddu the gi&i. De duy tri vd phdt trien nen kinh te lan vd phdt trien toe do cao nhic vdy. An Do phdi doi mat vai "bdi todn ndng luong", do do An Do da co dieu chinh trong chinh sdeh ngoai giao ndng luong. Tim kiem nguon cung ndng luong on dinh, ddm bdo an ninh ndng luong quoc gia. gidm su phu thuoc tif nguon cung ndng luong ben ngodi Id nhirng ini tien hdng ddu trong chinh sach ngogi giao ndng luong hien nay ciia An Do... Tren co sd phdn tich chinh sdeh ngoai giao ndng luong, bdi viet ldm ro thitc trang an ninh ndng luong, xdc dinh khong gian dia ly hop tde cua An Do trong linh vuc ndng luong tgi cdc khu vuc vd the gioi trong hai thdp nien ddu the ky 21.
Til khoa: chinh sach ngoai giao nang lugng, An Dp, an ninh nang lugng
I. Thyc trang an ninh nang lupng cua kn Dp
LL Sue ep tif gia tang ddn so, toe do tdng truong kinh te vd su suy- gidm nguon cung ndng lucmg irong nude
"Con khat nang lugng" hien nay cua An Dp trudc hit bat nguon tir sue ep dan so.
Theo s6 lieu mdi nhat cua Lien hpp quoc.
*\ ien Nehiiin cuu .4n Do \ a Ta\ Nam .A
neu nam 2010 dan so An Dp la 1,120 t^*
ngudi. thi tinh den thdi diem thang 1/2017 la 1.335 ty ngudi, chiem 17,86% dan so the gidi, la quoc gia co dan so ddng thii hai tren the gidi'. Theo do. nhu cau tieu thu nang lupng khi dot dupe udc tinh d miic 25 ty met khdi (2010). 36 ty met khoi (2020)
\a 51 ty met khoi (2030), tang gap doi tir
India Popidation, Worldometers, http://www.worldometers infoworld-population'india-popujalion
Nguyin Thi Oanh. Mot sd nervj "Chinh sdeh ngogi giao...
nam 2010 den 2030l Hien nay, hon 56%
so hp ndng thdn d An Dp khdng co dien de sij dung va phan Idn ngudi dan d ndng thdn van su dung nang lugng sinh khdi truyen thdng la nguyen lieu chinh de nau nudng^.
Tde do tang trudng kinh te nhanh, ben viing va sire manh hat nhan la hai dieu kien tien quyet ddi vdi An Dp nham khang vi the cudng qudc khu vyc va cudng qudc toan cau. Tuy nhien, de dat dugc muc tieu chien luge dd, An Do can cd hai dieu kien
"can", do la mot khu vyc hoa binh, dn djnh va mdt "hang sd" ve nang lupng tuong ung ty le thuan vdi tde dp tang trudng kinh tl va dan sd, tham chi theo cap sd cpng khi mire tang trudng GDP ciia nude nay d mire tren 7%^* va "hang sd" nay can dam bao dii ve sd Iugng va hop ly ve gia ca. Theo sd lieu tir IAEA, thang 1/2016, nhu chu nhien lieu cua An Dp tang Ien 12,7% d muc 15,71 trieu t^n, vupt qua Nhat Ban dl trd thanh qudc gia tieu thy d^u Idn thu 3 tren the gidi^
Ngoai ra, ngudn cung dau thd trong nude ciia An Dp eung co xu hudng giam.
Trudc bien dpng cua gia dhu thi gidi, nganh edng nghiep dau md va khi ddt An
" Marie Lall, Indo-Myanmar Relations in ihe Era of Pipeline Diplomacy', Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol 28, No. 3 (12,2006), p.424.
Ligia Noroha, Anant Sudarshan (2009), India's Energy Seairiiy, Roulledge. London.
•* Taniya Ghosh, Oil Price. Exchange Rate and the Indian Macroeconomy, Economic & Political Weekly, Vol. 51, Issue No.40,1 Oct, 2016, p,55.
^ Ajeya Bandyopadhyay, Why energy diplomacy mailers to secure India's energy future, http://www.
mydigitalfc.com/knowledge/why-energy-diplomacy- matters-secure-india%E2%80%99s-energy-future- 230. May 02 2016
Dp dang phan img bang viec cat giam ngan sach dau tu. Con sd dugc dua ra la 30%
trong nam 2015, dieu nay din den viec tham dd, khai thac cd thi bi cat giam^.
Theo bao cao ciia "BP Energy Outlook' 2035", cdng bd vao thang 2/2015, thi phan san xuat nang lupng eua An Dp (bao gdm than, dau mo, khi ddt va nhien lieu sinh hpc) trong tdng mue tieu thu se giam tir 59% (2015) xudng eon 56% (2035). Mpt nghien cim nam 2014 ciia McKinsey dya tren udc tinh GDP, tde dp tang trudng, co cau nen kinh te va tde dp gia tang dan sd, dy bao nhu cau nhap khau nang lupng thdciia An Dp se tang tir 30% trong nam 2010 len 51% vao nam 2030^
1.2. Sif phu thuoc vdo nguon cung ndng luong ben ngodi vd sir bien dong cua thi truong ddu md the giai
Hien nay. An Do nhap kh^.u 81% nhu elu diu thd vdi tri gia khoang 150 ty USD, ehilm gin 10% GDP qudc gia. Theo IAEA, den nam 2035, nhu cm nang lupng cila An Dp se chiem 7% nhu c^u nang lugng toan cau va de dap ung nhu cku nay, nhap khiu nang iugng se tang len 163% so vdi hien nay. Dilu dd cd nghia, An Dp se nhap khau gan mot nira nhu ciu nang lupng. Nam 2015, Thii tudng Narendra Modi da timg tuyen bd, An Dp phai giam sy phu thudc vao nhap khau nang lupng
Sudheer Pal Singh, Can India halve oil import dependence by 2030?, http://ww-w.business-standard.com /article/economy-policy/can-india-cut-down-ifs-oil-import -dependence-by-a-half-by-2030-1 i5040800227_l ,html
Planing Commission, Government of India, Draft Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy, New Delhi, December 2005.
10
Nghien cim An Dp va Chau A. So 5 - 2017 (dau tho, khi thien nhien va than da) til
77% (2015) xudng cdn 50% (2030). Tuy nhien, thyc te da chung minh rang muc tieu nay rat khd dat dupc.
Sy phu thudc ngay cang tang vao phan con lai ciia the gidi Ichong chi gidi han d dau mo, khi ty nhien, nang lupng hoa thach (than da), ma cdn ca uranium de duy tri chuong trinh dien hat nhan. Miie dp phu thude vao nhap khau ciia An Do trong nam 2005-2006 la khoang 24% tdng lupng tieu thy nang lugng so cap va khoang 30% tdng lugng tieu thy nang lupng thuong mai.
Theo kjch ban tiet kiem nang lupng nhat, trong nam 2031-2032, sy phu thupe vao nhap khau ciia An Dp cd thi tang Ien 28%
tdng lupng tieu thu nang lupng so cap va 32% tdng lupng tieu thu nang lugng thuong mai. Theo kich ban tde do tang trudng kinh te - xa hpi nhu hien nay, sy phu thudc vao nhap khau ciia An Dp vao nam 2031-2032 se tang len 49% tdng tieu thu nang lupng so cap va 54% tieu thu nang lupng thuong mai.
Vdi viec dau the gidi rdt gia, tir 100 USD/1 thiing xuong edn 30 USD/I thiing.
da giiip nen kinh te An Dp phat trien tdt do giam dupe ap lue tir lam phat, cai thien tham hut tai khoan vang lai va giam tham hut ngan sach bang each loai bd trp cap gia dau. Trong nam tai chinh 2015-2016, An Do da nhap hon 202 trieu tan dau, eao hon 7% vl khdi lugng, nhung ehi phai tra 64 ty USD, thap hon 43% so vdi nam tai chinh 2014-2015. Tuy nhien, gia dau thap cung mang lai rui ro cho xuat khau An Do khi A Rap Saudi va UAE, hai nha cung c4p dhu
Idn nhat cila An Do va Tay A - khu vyc cd nguon "dy trii ngoai hdi Idn nhat ciia An Dp" chiu anh hudng nang ne nhat do sy sut giam gia dau. Dieu nay dy bao ve mdt gia tri thuong mai am dam cua An Do d cae qude gia nay.
Theo Chinh phii An Do, din nam 2025, An Dp se la qudc gia ddi mat vdi ap lye nang lupng Idn thir 2 thi gidi sau Trung Qude. Day la thdi diem ma ngoai giao nang lugng eiia An Dp can mdt siic sdng mdi de ddi mat vdi tinh tinh mdi nham thiic dly su thanh cdng vl "eau chuyen An Dp" (India- story) d nude ngoai va giiip An Dp dam bao an ninh nang lugng, gianh dupc vi tri cudng qudc khu vyc va tren thi gidi.
2. Y nghia cua chinh sach ngoai giao nang lirpTig doi voi sir phat trien cua An Do
Thi'f nhdt, chinh sach ngogi giao ndng luong cua An Do nhdm gidi guyet vdn de an ninh ndng luong, dap img dil ngudn eung nang lupng cho tit ca cac nganh trong co eiu kinh te, ngudi dan, hd gia dinh, ung phd dugc cae cu sde ve kinh te va sy gian doan vl ngudn cung. Thi ky 21, an ninh nang lugng trd thanh trgng tam trong ehinh sach doi ngoai cua An Dp. Theo dd, nhu chu nang lupng ngay cang tang eiia An Dp, vl co ban se dinh hinh va dinh hudng ban chat quan he ngoai giao ciia nude nay vdi mue tieu dam bao "an ninh nang lupng" qudc gia.
Thu hai, chinh sdeh ngogi giao ndng luong Id mot phdn khdng thi tdch roi cUa an nmh quoc gia. La mdt loai hang hda an ninh qudc gia, An Dp dang gip n'u triln khai chien luge an ninh nang lugng qude
Nguyen Thi Oanh. Mot sd net vi "Chinh sdeh ngogi giao...
gia, trong dd, chinh sach ngoai giao nang lugng la cdng cu va nhiem vu trpng tam nham tiep can mdt khdng gian dia ly da dang. Ngoai giao nang lugng cdn la mdt co che hau thuan cho chien luge gan kit chat che hon ve kinh te, chinh tri eiia An Dp vdi cac qude gia ddi tac.
Thif ba. Id mot quoc gia thieu hut ndng luong, ngogi giao ndng luong An Do chit yeu Id "ngogi bien" nhdm ma rong ddi tde
"cung ndng luong", giam thieu linh de bi tdn thuong do anh hudng ciia nhimg biln ddng tren thi trudng nang lupng qudc te, va giam sy phu thudc vao ngudn cung nang lupng ben ngoai. Theo nghia nay, ddng lye ehinh dang sau chinh sach nay khdng phai la toi da hoa lpi ich kinh doanh, thuong mai ma la dam bao cac muc tieu an ninh qudc gia, dieu nay ddng nghTa vdi viec, cac tinh toan vl chi phi - Igi nhuan co ban khdng theo logic kinh te ma theo khia canh ehinh tri.
3. Cac bien phap trien khai chinh sach 3.1. Da dgng hoa ngudn cung ndng luong thdng qua ciing co quan he vdi cdc ddi tac truyen thong vd ma rdng quan he voi cdc ddi tde tiem ndng
Trong qua trinh tiep can ngudn cung nang lupng mdt each da phuong, phuong cham ciia An Dp la tranh qua phu thupe vao bat ky mdt quoc gia hoac khu vyc nao.
* Citng cd quan he vai cdc ddi tde truyen thdng
Su\ thoai tren thj trudng dhu md thi gidi thdi gian qua da lam thay ddi dia ehinh trj toan cau, dan tdi sy hinh thanh cac doi
tac thuong mai mdi ciia An Dp. Tuy nhien vdi phuong cham tilp can da phuong nhung cd trpng diem, uu lien trudc het ciia chinh sach ngoai giao nSng lupngxiia An Dp la lam sau sac them quan he vdi cac cac ddi tac truyen thdng, trudc het la vdi cac qudc gia Trung A (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan).
Chien lupc nang lupng eiia An Dp d dia ban nay la day manh quan he ddi tac, trao ddi cdng nghe, ky thuat, R&D, hoac ciing hgp tac trong cac dy an d cac nude thiir ba, dam bao an ninh cac co sd khai thac dau, SLOCs eung nhu day manh dau tu eho cac dy an dau md va hda dau.
Ngoai ra, An Dp cd lpi ich lau dai d viing Vinh vd bdn ddo A Rap. Khu vyc nay la mdt phan ciia chinh sach an ninh nang lugng An Dp bdi day la ngudn eung chinh vl dau thd, cung cip hem 2/3 lugng hang nhap khlu hang nam eiia An Do. Trong sd cac qudc gia nay, A Rap Saudi \k"d6i tac ndng luong chiin luoc "(tu nam 2006), dap ung 25% nhu chu dau thd hang nam eiia An Do. Tiep den la Iran, nha cung cip diu md Idn thir ba cho An Dp (2,5 trieu tln/nam, sau A Rap Saudi va Nigeria) va dang noi len nhu ddi tae tiem nang trong mdt sd dy an lien quan din hydrocarbon, khi ddt. Cac doi tac chinh khae la U.A.E., Kuwait, Oman va Qatar.
Nam 2005, Bd trudng DIU md va Khi ddt An Do da thyc hien cac chuyin tham cap cao den Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan va Thd NhT Ky va ky kit mot chuong trinh toan dien ve hpp tac song phuong va khu vuc vl khi hydrocarbon. Tai Kazakhstan, An Dp
Nghien euu An Dp va Chau A. Sd 5 - 2017 dang theo dudi cac de xuat ve khai thae va
Ipc dau d Caspi, trong khi Azerbaijan va Thd Nhi Ky dang ndi len nhu nhiing ddi tac trong thuc hien cac dy an dudng dng tii Trung A den chau Au cila An Dd^. Khu vyc Tay A cung cap tdi 67,43% lugng nhap khau dau ciia An Dp. Do dd, rat kho de giam sy phu thudc ciia An Dp vao Tay A bat chap su bien ddng chinh tri ciia khu vyc va nhiing nii ro vdn cd lien quan den viec phy thudc qua nhieu vao mdt ngudn cung.
* Mo rong hgp tac vol cdc doi tde tiem ndng Chien lupc ciia An Dp vdi cac doi tac nay la tiep can canh tranh ve dau khi thay vi bi mac ket trong thi trudng cung, tham gia vao cac du an tinh che hda dau d cac nude san xuat tren co sd dau tu cheo, thiet lap dudng dng dan xuyen qudc gia, trao ddi edng nghe san xuat de dam bao cd ngudn eung dn djnh, ben vung va gia re. Ben eanh tap trung vao khu vyc Tay A va Nam A md rpng. An Dp dang hudng din "eae dai duong" va cac ddi tae tiem nSng nhim dam bao nhu cau nang lupng^, timg budc thilt lap eac co che hpp tac d cap dp song phuong, khu vyc va toan clu de hinh thanh
•"chudi gia trj nang lupng".
Chau My Latinh - dja ban bd sung cho eae ddi tac truyen thdng ctia An Dp. Cac nha may Ige dau ciia An Do da giam nhap
Talmiz Ahmad. Geopolitics of West Asian andCentral Asian oil andgas: Implications for India's energy security, Conferenceon "India's Energy Security" foreign, trade and security policy contexts.
30 September 2006.
India should engage in aggressive oil diplomacy;
http:/'www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/lsquolndia- should-engage-in-aggressive-oil-diplomacy/article 16044775,ece.
khau dau thd tir cac thj trudng truyen thdng nhu A Rap Saudi va tang cudng nhap tir nhimg vimg dia ly mdi nhu Mexico va Venezuela vi ngudn hang kha thi va chi phi van chuyen thap hon. Ngoai ra, de dam bao ngudn cung hydrocarbon trong moi trudng qudc te cd tinh canh tranh cao, An Dp dang chuyen hudng den vung bien Caspi vd Trung Phi. Theo do. An Dp da thiet lap mdt chudi "quan he ddi tac nang lugng", nhu lam mdi quan he vdi Cdc nuoc viing Vinh (ddi tae nang lupng Idn trong nganh Ipe dau va hda dau); Trung Qudc (hpp tac trong linh vye hydrocacbon, dy thau chung trong tham dd va cae dy an khae d cac nude thu ba); Nga (md rpng hgp tac dau md va khi ddt cung nhu lam viec vdi cae edng ty Nga d cac nude thti ba); Trung A (tham gia vdn cd phan vao cac nganh dau khi va phat trien cae dy an dudng dng dan khi). Ngoai ra, An Dp cung md rpng hpp tac de tham do dau khi d Bien Ddng vdi ddi tac chinh la Viet Nam, Myanmar.
3.2. Quan he hihi nghi voi cdc nude ldng gieng nhdm xdy dung mot "mgng ludi cung ndng luong lien ke " dn dinh
Vln dl nang lupng da vupt xa muc tieu thuong mai va quan he kinh tl truyin thdng. Ddi vdi An Dp, hien nay "cac nude lang gieng la uu tien sd mpt" trong ehinh sach ddi ngoai. Cac qude gia nay chinh la viing dem, dja ban chuyen tiep nang lupng, ket ndi "ehudi" nang lucmg eua khu vye va the gidi tdi An Dp. De khdng bi gian doan ve ngudn cung nang lupng cung nhu tiep can vdi dudng dng din khi tir Turkmenistan, Afghanistan. Uzbekistan, 13
Nguyin Thi Oanh. Mot sS net vi "Chinh sach ngogi giao..
Nga, cac qudc gia thudc Cdng ddng eac Qudc gia Ddc lap va Myanmar, d phia Ddng, An Dp cln cai thien va duy tri mdi quan he tdt dep vdi Bangladesh, cdn d phia Tay cln lam "Im" mdi quan he vdi Pakistan. Dang trong "eon khat" ve dau md, toa lae d vi tri die dia vdi nhilu qudc gia cd trij lupng Idn khi ddt tu nhien viec An Dp can lam hien nay la duy tri mdt mdi quan he huu hao vdi tat ea cac qude gia lang gilng.
Ben eanh tiep can cae ngudn tai nguyen thiiy dien ciia Nepal va Bhutan, An Dp da bat dau nhan thuc tam quan trpng ciia hcrp tac vdi Pakistan va Bangladesh de dam bao dong chay ciia hydrocarbon tir phia Ddng va phia Tay Tieu lue dia. Dau nam 2005, An Dp da quyet dinh cudc dam phan vdi cac nude lang gieng trong viec theo dudi ba du an dudng ong khi dot: (1) Duong dng dan TAPI de dua khi ddt tir Turkmenistan den An Dp thdng qua Afghanistan va Pakistan; (2) Dudng dng dan IPI ndi Iran vdi An Dp thdng qua Pakistan va dua khi ddt tir Myanmar den An Dp thdng qua Bangladesh; (3) Dudng dng dan khi ddt Iran - Oman - An Dp. An Dp eung chu mdt ngudn cung dau khi dn dinh cho eac bang ngheo hon d khu vyc Ddng Bac, va qudc gia lang gieng Myanmar la su lya chpn hpp ly. Day dupe xem la mdt chiln luge "ngoai giao dng dau" ciia An Do.
3.3. Ddm bdo an ninh cho cdc tuyen van chuyen hdng hdi (SLOCs) chiin luge O tren dat lien, viec van chuyin nang lugng cua An Dp dang ddi mat vdi hai rao
can: dia hinh niii cao hilm trd (vimg cao trai dai qua bien gidi phia BIC) va sy bat dn chinh tri trong quan he vdi Pakistan va Bangladesh. Do vay, trong nhieu nam tdi ngudn cung diu khi ty nhien dugc van chuyin dudi dang khi hda long va dau thd ben ngoai van chii yeu phu thudc vao SLOCs. Hien nay, khoang 90%o vl khdi lugng va 70%. vl gia tri thuong mai ben ngoai ciia An Do dupc giao dich bang dudng biln"^, vl khia canh nang lupng gan 80% nhu elu diu thd dupe nhap khau bang dudng bien vdi cira ngd la SLOCs d An Dp Duong. Cae con sd nay tuong duong vdi lugng van ehuyen hang hda bang SLOCs ciia mdt qudc dao". Mae dii, nang lye hai quan An Dp dang phat trien toan dien va vj tri dia ly chien luge nam tren eac tuyen dudng bien Idn tao mot "cira ngo" ra eac dai duong.
3.4. Cdn bdng quan he giira cdc nuoc lan vd cdc doi tde cung nang lugng
Chien luge an ninh nang lupng dang trd thanh trpng tam phat triln eua An Dp, My, Nga, Trung Qude, chau Au, Nhat Ban, do do chac chan se xay ra mdt cudc canh tranh dia chinh tri vl nang lupng nhim thiic day anh hudng ehinh tri d eac qudc gia dau md eung nhu phat trien cac hanh lang nang lupng. Khi canh tranh va tim kilm ngudn cung dang d giai doan ndng, ddi hdi An Dp
Chief of the Naval StaffRK Dhowan (2015), Ensuring Secure Seas. Indian Maritime Security Strategy', Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defence (Navy), New Delhi, p.3.
" Commander G. S. Khurana, Security of maritime energy lifelines Policy imperatives for India, Conferenceon 'India's Energy Security: foreign, trade and security policy contexts', 29/9/2006.
Nghien ciru An Dp va Chau A. Sd 5 - 2017 can cd mot su can bang chinh trj, ung xir
nhay ben de can bang phuong trinh giQa cac nude Idn va cac qudc gia cung cap nang lupng ciia minh.
Cu thi, khi cac khoan diu tu nang lugng d Vinh Ba Tu va Trung A tang len, An Do can ehii y nhieu hon den eae ngudn gdc xung dot va sy ganh dua d hai khu vyc nay. Trong vCing Vinh, An Dp can phai can bang tdt quan he giiia cac qudc gia Trung Ddng, thiic day quan he vdi My va duy tri quan he hpp ly vdi Iran. Tai Trung A, An Dp tranh bi cudn vao mdt sd yeu td canh tranh khi eae qude gia Trung A xem Nga nhu la mdt thach thuc an ninh, "phan img than trpng" trudc eac nd lye ciia Nga nham ban che anh hudng ciia My d Trung A thdng qua Td chirc Hpp tac Thupng Hai nham dam bao can bang giiia cae lpi ieh qudc gia trong khu vyc va duy tri mdi quan he dn djnh vdi Nga. Ngoai ra, sy gia tang manh me anh hudng ciia Trung Qude d Trung A, chau Phi cung la van de quan tam ddi vdi An Dp. Tat ca nhiing xu hudng nay ddi hdi An Dp can cd mdt lua chpn chien luge can bang va tinh toan hgp ly.
3.5. Chinh sdeh hoi nhap, gdp von vd mua cd phdn ndng lugng
Nam 2006, Uy ban Ke hoach An Dp cdng bd Chinh sach Hdi nhap nang lugng, theo do, ben canh cae ehinh sach ben trong thi An Dp can theo dudi mdt chinh sach
"hudng ngoai" ve nang lupng nham: tang cudng ngudn lye trong nude bang each hpc hdi edng nghe nude ngoai hien dai; mua cd phan vdn trong eac ITnh vye khai thac va
hda diu; ky hpp ddng tham dd va kliai thac d cac khu vyc khae nhau tren the gidi; tham gia vao cac dy an nha may Ipc dau va hda diu d eac nude tren ca sd dau tu cheo; thiet lap dudng dng din xuyen qude gia; khuyen khich ddi thoai "lien A" (intra-Asian) giira cac nude xuat khau va nhap khau nang lupng, khuyen khich dau tu, phat trien ngudn luc va eo sd ha tang d chau A,...
Trong dd, logic cua cd phan nang lupng dupc ciia An Dp la ehien luge trpng tam, vdi npi dimg la mua cd phan vdn va gdp vdn trong cac dy an, edng ty nang lupng d nude ngoai hoac hpp tac vdi cac qudc gia xuat khau dau md trong cac dy an nang lupng d qudc gia thu ba. Viec trien kliai chien lupc nay ciia An Dp budc dau da dat dugc mdt sd ket qua tich eye. Hien nay. An Dp da mua dupc ed phan vdn ve dau md va khi gas d Sudan, Nigeria, Kazakhstan va Ecuador, than da d Australia va Indonesia (tir nam 2002)'^, ky hpp ddng tham dd va khai thac dau tai Sakhalin (Nga), Nigeria, Oman, Iran, Viet Nam, Myanmar, Venezuela, Colombia va Cuba. Cdng ty ONGC Videsh ciia An Dp (OVL) hoac cac cdng ty khae nhu Tap doan Dau lira An Dp (IOC) va Co quan Khi gas An Dp (GAIL) cung da mua lai cac cd phan tai san nang lupng d nhieu qudc gia d nude ngoai. O Tay A ed Iran, Iraq va Syria. O chau Phi, OVL da mua lai cd phan d mdt sd ITnh vue nang Iugng tai Sudan, Libya, Ai Cap va Bd Bien Nga. Qude gia nay cung dang nd lye da dang hda ngudn cung d phia
• Surya Sethi (2006), India's energy challenges and choices. TER[-KAFConference on Energy Security, p.22.
Nguyen Thi Oanh. Mol s6 net ve' "Chinh sach ngogi giao...
Dong, cu the cac cong ty d i u khi ciia An Do dang nam 4 5 % co p h i n d 16 06.1 thuoc be Nam Con Son (phia Nam ciia Viet Nam), 55% CO phan tai mot so cong ty dau khi Australia va 2 0 % c6 phSn trong cac dir an mo khi dot ngoai khcri ciia Myanmar'^. 6 viing Vien Bong Nga, OVL da mua 20% c6 phan trong du an dau Sakhalin-I ciia Exxon Mobil, d chau My, OVL da mua 30% c6 phan trong 6 khoi Iham do nuoc sau trong vung EEZ cua C u b a " , ONGC va GAIL dang ciing so htru 49% co phan trong mpt du an mo dau a Venezuela. Ngoiii ra, An Bo cung da tan ditng cdc cam ket va chien luoc doi thoai song phtrcmg. da phuong thong qua cac cuoc tham vieng cap cao, cac uy ban chung va cac cuoc tham van ciia cac van phong nuac ngoai. An Do con tich cue tham gia tren cac dien dan da phucmg nhu T6 chiic Hop tac Thuong Hai, Dfli thoai San xuat va Tieu diing chau A, Hoi nghi ban tron Bo trudng Dau mo chau A.
Tom Igi, chi so kinh tS va phat trijnciia mot quoc gia co lien quan chat che vol vin de an ninh nang lugng. Hai thap nien d i u the ky 21, ngoai giao nang lugng cua An Do da dugc triln khai manh me, da dien, da giai phap va budc d i u da gianh dugc mot so ket qua. Mac dii, co nhimg thoi diem
"ngoai giao nang lugng" ciia An Do co do
"chimg" boi su chen ep, canh tranh ciia cac doi thu Ion nhu: My, Trung Qu6c, tham chi Commander G. S. Kliurana, Security of maritime energy lifelines. Policy, intperalives for India Conference on 'India's Energy Security: foreign rrade and security policy contexts', India, 30/9/2006. '
C. Raja Mohan, Energy security and Indian foreign policy. Conferenceon "India's Energy Security f oreign. trade and securit)- policy contexts", 30/9,2006.
la Nga, va co su khdi dgng tucmg doi cham so vdi "ngudi lang gieng khong 16" Trung Quoc. Nhung eg ban da dap img dugc nhu cau nang lugng cho ngudi dan va toe dp phat trien kinh te, mot s6 "ngudn c u n g " da dugc thiet lap tuong d6i on dinh.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Andreas Goidthau, Energy Diplomacy in Trade and investment ofOd and Gas. Royal Holloway, University of London, htlps://www.
researchgate.net/publication/280609770.
2. Brenda Shafer (2009), Energy Politics, University of Pennsylvania Press, http://www.
upenn.edu/pennpress/book/14628.htm 3. Taniya Ghosh, "Oil Price, Exchange Rate and the Indian Macroeconomy", Economic & Political Weekly, Vol.51, Issue No.40, 1 Oct, 2016.
4. Ajeya Bandyopadhyay, Why energy diplomacy matters to secure India's energy future, http://www.mydigitalfc.com/knowledge/why- energy-diplomacy-matters-secure-india%E2
%80%99s-energy-futurc-230. May 02 2016.
5. StaffRK Dhowan (2015), Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy. Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defence (Navy), New Delhi.
6. Dalbir Ahlawat, India's Strategic Perceptions- Dilemmas and Opportunities. Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter-Ten-orism Macquarie University, Sydney, 12 July 2012 .
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