u CANH TRANH CHIEN LLfdC
GlCfA TRUNG QUOC VA MY Cl MYANMAR TRONG THAP NIEN THLf HA! CUA THE KY XXI*
LE VAN MY**
TRAN HAI YEN***
M
yanmar Id quo'c gia nam gifla hai nfldc ldn Id Trung Qub'c va An Do.Day la vi tri noi Uen vdnh dai chien Idpe Chau A-Thdi Binh Duong vdi An Dp Duong.
Ni tri dia - chifi'n Idtfc eua Myanmar cang dddc nang cao khi nddc ndy tie'n hdnh eai each ehinh tri vd kinh te tfl dau nam 2011.
Myanmar da vd dang trd thdnh dia ban eanh tranh anh hddng cua cac cflbng qub'c, trong db phai k l de'n Trung Qufi'c vd My.
1. M y a m n a r vori Igti i c h c h i e n Iifdc c u a Trung Quoc va My
Do'i udi Trung Qudc:
Su noi lfin nhanh chbng cua Trung Quo'c nhu mgt cddng qufi'e trong thap nien dau the' ky XXI da Idm thay doi moi tnfbng dia - chinh tri thfi' gidi, trddc he't tai Dong A.
Nhdm gia tdng anh hddng, Trung Qufi'c dang xay ddhg cho minh mgt vanh dai an ninh xung quanh I n dinh vd nam trong tam anh hUcmg eua Trung Qufi'c. Myanmar vdi vai trb Id nhdn to' ldng gieng se dem lai nhtftig lgi ich chie'n lUdc cho Trung Qufi'c neu nUdc ndy hodn todn nam trong "d6ng thuan Bdc Kinh".
Lgi ich chiin lugc ui kinh ti: Trong qud trinh troi day, Trung Qub'c dang tifiu thu mgt lUdng khong lo cde nguon nguyfin nhien vat Ufiu nham phuc vu eho san xuat ngi dia. Db'i mat vdi thde trang ngu&n tdi nguyen trong ndde dang thifi'u hut, Trung Quoe bube phai hddng ra bfin ngoai d l tim kifi'm thfim cdc nguon cung cap. Ld ndde ldng gilng vdi nguon tai nguyen vfl cung phong phu, Myanmar se Id mfit trong nhCfng ncfi cung ca'p thuan lpi nhat eho nhu cau ngdy cdng gia tang cua Trung Qufi'c.
Mat khdc, Myanmar, vdi dan so' khoang 60 trifiu ngudi cb mflc thu nhdp tdpng db'i thap, se Id mgt thi trddng ldn tieu thu hang hoa gid re cua Trung Qub'c. Dieu nay cb y nghia quan trpng trong viee md rgng thi tnfdng ra ben ngoai cua cac tinh mien Tay Trung Qub'c dae biet Id tinh Van Nam - ntfi cb dfldng bien gidi vdi Myanmar.
Nhdm tao sd kfi't nfi'i thudn Igi v l giao thfing, Trung Qufi'c dang tich cde thdc hien du dn xdy ddng tuyfi'n dddng bb cao toe chay tfl Van Nam dfi'n Myitkyina va tuyfi'n dddng sdt cao tfle tfl Lasa Tay Tang dfi'n Muse thupc bang Shan eua Myanmar vd tfl Muse di sau vao luc dia Myanmar ra tdi
* Nghifin cdu n^y dUpc thuc hien bdi su tdi trcf ciia Quy Phat trien khoa hoc va cong ngh§
Quoc gia (NAFOSTED) trong de tai ma s6' V 2.2 - 2012.03
** TS. L6 van My, *** Ths. Tran Hdi Yin, Vi^n Nghifin cdu Trung Quoc
14 Nghien cdu Ddng Nam A 212015 Nndi Bengal. Hai faiye'n giao thong ndy
giup Trung Qufi'c gia tang xua't khau hdng tifiu dung vd nhap khau nguyfin Ueu thfi td Myanmar.
Lgi ich ve dia chiin liigc: Dfi'i vdi viec canh tranh anh hddng, An Dp, mfit qufi'c gia dang trfii day manh me vd la dfi'i thu dang gbm eua Trung Qufl^c d khu vifc ehdu A, dang gia tang quan he vdi My vd cung CO quan hfi vdi ASEAN. An Dfi qua "chinh sdch hudng Dfing" cua rainh, eung dang gia tang anh hudng cua minh vdi Myanmar, dieu ndy edng de dga tdi lpi ich chie'n Idpc vd tinh hinh an ninh cua Trung Quo'c d phia Tdy Nam. Dong thdi, My vd phdong Tay dang thuc day qud trinh dan chu hba d Myanmar, nhdm hfldng Myanmar di theo anh hddng cua nunh. Trung Qufi'c cho rdng, Myanmar ndm trong chie'n lugc "tdi cdn bang" cua My d khu vflc chau A nhdm thdt chat "vbng cung Idem che* do'i vdi Trung Quo'c. Tnfdc nhflng canh tranh ndy, vdi vai trb Id nude eb anh hudng truyen tho'ng d Myanmar, Trung Qub'c mufi'n bifi'n Myanmar trd thdnh mgt trong nhOhg quo'c gia cb quan he ehat che vdi Trung Qu6c, nhdm gbp phan dam bao cho vific on dinh an ninh xung quanh vd giam bdt nhiftig dp life kilm chfi' dfi'n tfl bfin ngoai do'i vdi Trung Qub'c.
Mat khde, Trung Qufl'c cb vi tri tifi'p gidp vbi biln Hoa Dfing va Bien DSng. Hifin nay, lien minh quan sU My - Nhat ngdy cdng gia tang d khu viic bien Hoa Dbng va tranh chd'p Bien Dong ngdy cdng phde tap.
Dieu ndy gay ra nhiftig trd ngai nhd't djnh cho Trung Qufi'e trong vific gia tdng sdc manh tren bien Thai Binh Ddcfng. Ne'u Tnmg Quo'c cb t h l vifon "cdnh tay thd 2"
ra An Dfi Duong, khfi'ng che' dugc eo biln Malacca thfing qua vific gia tang anh hdcfng d Myanmar thi day sfi trd thanh lpi
ih.i khong chi trong van d l thdcmg m^u tren bien md cbn giup Trung Qufl'c ngdn chdn ddpc "sif bao vay" eua My.
Khong nhiftig thfi', Myanmar ndm trong Dflng Nam A luc dia vd Id qufl'c gia thufic GMS. Vific gia t d n g a n h hudng tai Myanmar song song vdi gia tang anh hfldng tai Lao va Campuchia giup Trung Qufi'c "gan gui" htfn vdi ede quoe gia GMS, tao dieu kifin eho Trung Qufi'c xay dung ddpe "san sau" vflhg chdc de phdt triln va I n dinh tinh hinh bien gidi phia Tdy Nam.
Vdi nhuhg lpi the' sSn cb, Myanmar trd thdnh do'i tdgng quan trgng va ta't yfi'u ma Tmng Qufi'c hfldng tdi trong chie'n lugc trS thdnh nddc ldn cua minh. "Gid tri cua Myanmar ddi vdi Trung Quoc rdt ro ret, Myanmar Id ddt nudc gb doi, kem phdt triin, nhiing tiip gidp An Dp, la con diidng quan trgng cda Trung Qudc tiin uao An Bg Duang. Vi tri dia ly cua Myanmar da bu lap khodng trdng trong bdn do chiin lugc cua Trung Qudc trong khu vtfc. Doi vdi Trung Qud'c viec t&ng cUdng quan h& todn di&n udi Myanmar co y nghta kinh te, chiin liigc ua qudn stf quan trgng. Mpt ddt nudc Myanmar hiiu nghi vdi Trung Qudc se ldm cho An Dp vd ba nudc Ddng Duang khdng thi li&n kit thdnh mpt bdc tUdng d phia Nam bao vdy Trung Qud'c'^".
Do'i vdi My:
Ndm 2010, Trung Quo'c da chinh thdc vdpt Nhat Ban trd t h a n h nen kinh tfi' ddng thd hai the' gidi. T i l m Iflc quan sd vd quo'c phbng eua Trung Qufi'e eung tang rat manh. Trong khi db, chinh quyln Bush luc do dang tap trung chfl'ng chu nghia khung bo' d Afganistan, sa ldy trong chifi'n tranh Iraq. Chinh dieu ndy da tao nen mfit
"khodng trdng quyin lUc" tai khu viie chdu A, dde bifit Id Dfing Nam A, tao dieu kifin cho Trung Quoc gia tang anh hudng vdi cdc
L& Vdn My, Trdn Hdi Yen - Cgnh tranh chien luac gida Trung Qudc vd My... 15 quoc gia d khu vifc ndy. Sau khi Tong
thong Obama lfin ndm quyln, fing da tuyfin bo chien Iddc chuyin true sang ehdu A - Thdi Binh Dfldng. Md dau bai viet "Thi ki Thdi Binh Diiang cda My" (America's Pacific Century), Ngoai tnfdng My Hillary CUnton da nhd'n m a n h rang,
"tuang lai chinh tri se dugc quyit dinh d chdu A, khdng phdi Afghanistan hay Iraq vd Hoa Ky se phdi cd diigc quyin trung tdm trong hdnh dpng'"'^'. Sfl quay trd lai eua My d chau A - TBD nhdm khdng dinh vi tri sQ^ mgt ciia My, Myanmar la mgt phan trong chifi'n Idge trd lai ndy cua My.
Lgi ich vi dia chiin lugc: My hbi thuc qua trinh ddn chu d Myanmar nham gia tang pho bifi'n "gid tri My" d nflde nay.
Dieu nay se tao hifiu tftig lan toa thanh nhi3!ng vong cung dan chu kilu My d cac nddc ven An Dg Dfldng, phue vu cho chifi'n Idtfc todn cdu cua My. Dong thdi, qua qua trinh dan chu hda d Myanmar, My con nham muc dich dm chi dfli vdi Trieu Tifin rdng, nflde ndy cung cd the di theo con dddng nay ne'u Binh Nhu&ng chap nhan md eda vd cho phfip cfing dong qufi'c tfi' thanh tra cac lb phan dng h a t nhdn.
Do'i vdi viec cgnh tranh dnh hudng, chau A c6 vai trb rd't quan trgng trong chinh sdch ngoai giao eua ehinh quyen Obama. Mat khde. My dang ehiu sU canh tranh rao rifi't cua Trung Qub'c d khu viie Dflng Nam A vd Nam Thai Binh DUdng.
An Do cung dang trfli day manh me tai khu Vlfc ndy. Dieu ndy buge My phai dda ra chifi'n Iddc "quay tra lgi chdu A" nhdm bao vg vi tri so' 1 cua minh. Mufi'n thdc hien "quay trd lgi chdu A" thdnh cbng thi My phai cung cfl' nhflhg mfli quan he dong minh, cung nhd nhflng mb'i quan he md trong db My gifl vai trb chi pho'i. Cde hanh dpng tieh cflc d Dbng Nam A nbi chung vd
GMS noi rifing Id dilm tfla cho chinh sdch ngoai giao hfldng ve ehau A cua My. Dfli vdi Myanmar, moi tnidng tong t h l xd'u di k h i l n My phai thay doi "chinh sdch ngogi giao nhdn quyin" sang "chinh sdch tUp xuc thtfc dung" lay ldi ich thdc tfi' ldm cd sct^K Nfiu nhfl so sanh vdi nhflhg khu vde My da tham gia vao qud trinh ddn chu, tin Myanmar cb vi tri dia - chie'n Idpc quan trpng. Ld mot qufl'c gia ndm gifla hai nddc Idling 16 chdu A dang tren dd trSi ddy, dn ngfl eda ngb ra vdo eo bien Malacca, xu the eai edeh chinh tri d Myanmar cdng tich cflc, kha nang My dat ddpc thdnh qua quan trgng trong quan he vdi Myanmar cdng ldn. Bfin canh db, tai quoe gia ndy, Trung Qub'c cb mbt vi thfi' rat manh me trfin mgi linh viic. Nfi'u nhd My tao ddpe anh hudng ldn cf Myanmar thi kha nang "kilm chfi***
cua My dfli vdi sd tr&i day vd gia tdng anh hddng eua Trung Qufi'c se thu^n Itfi hcfn.
Dilu ndy phue vu cho muc dieh edn bdng chie'n lUgc cua My d chdu A vd duy tri vi the' noi trgi ciia minh trong ban cd dia chinh tri the' gidi hien nay.
Lgi ich ui kinh te: ThUc cha't. My khfing cb qua nhilu lgi ich kinh te' tnic tifi'p d Myanmar nhd Trung Qub'c. Tuy nhien, viec "d'm len" trong quan hfi My Myanmar se Id dilu kien de My md rgng anh hudng cua minh tren linh vflc kinh te^
tai Myanmar. Myanmar cbn Id thdnh vien cua GMS, tie'p cdn vdi Myanmar se giup My gia tang manh me htfn nfla quan he kinh te' vdi cac thanh vifin khac thuge GMS, dong thdi tham dfl sau hon hgp tdc kinh tfi' cua GMS.
Vdi vi tri ehifin lUgc, Myanmar sau nhflhg cai each ehinh tri da trd thanh mgt trong nhdng trpng diem cua chifi'n Iflpc chuyen true eua My. Nham muc dich kilm che anh hfldng cua eac quo'c gia dang tr&i
Nghien cdu Ddng Nam A 21201$
day, My se khong the bd qua Myanmar nhd tnfdc day (giai doan thdc hien chinh sach eain v^n). Vdi phfltfng chdm "ldy hdnh dpng doi hdnh dgng" (action for action) My da ddhg ra ung hp vd xba bo mpt phan eain van sau khi Myanmar tie'n hdnh cai each'*'. "ZVfi'u Myanmar co nhdng budc di tiin bp. My cUng se chudn bi nhdng budc di tiip theo. My se ldm bgn cda Myanmar^^.
2. C a n h tranh a n h hvtbng giiZ^ Trung Quoc va. My b Myanmar g i a i d o a n 2011 d e n n a y
Vdi nhiftig chinh sach tie'p can khde nhau, Trung Quoc vd My da vd dang tao nen mgt cube canh tranh anh hudng tai Myanmar tren nhilu linh vde.
Tr&n llnh vtfc chinh tri - ngogi giao:
Bdi vdi Trung QuSc: Trong thdi ky bi cam van, Myanmar chiu nhieu sdc ep td My vd EU. Tuy nhien, nude nay lai nhdn ddtfc su ling hp tfl Trung Qub'c. Quan hfi Trung Qub'c - Myanmar tren linh viie db'i ngoai dugc eai thifin va phat trien td c^fil nam 1988, sau khi chinh quyen cua Thu tudng Newin bi lat do bdi cugc dao chinh qudn sflfii. Khi tinh hinh chinh tri d Myanmar cb sU thay doi tfl dau ndm 2011, quan he ngoai giao gifla Myanmar va Trung Qub'c cimg cb nhifng da'u hieu di xub'ng. Mac du vay, vdi vai trb anh hddng truyin thbng, Trung Qub'c vdn cb mgt vi tri quan trgng trong quan he ngoai giao vdi Myanmar.
Sau khi ehinh quyen mdi dflgc thanh lap d Myanmar, chuyfi'n thdm vifi'ng dau tifin cua mgt quan ehflc Trung Qufl'c tdi nude nay la eua Uy vifin thfldng vu Bp Chinh tri, Chu tich Chinh hiep Trung Quoc Gia Khdnh Lam. Chuyfi'n tham difin ra trong 4 ngay tfl ngay 2 de'n ngay 5
thdng 4 nam 2011. Trong buoi hgi dam vfli Tong thong Thein Sein, ong Gia Khanh Lam bdy td muc dich chuye'n thdm lan ndy la gdp phan thuc day quan he htfp tdc ldu b i n va tang cddng nhflhg lpi ich edn ban gifla hai quo'c gia. Trong do, flng ddc biet nhan manh tdhg cddng hon nfla hpp tac hai nddc trong cac llnh vflc trpng diem nhtf giao thflng, ndng lugng, etf sd ha tang ldn;
giao luu mat thig't gifla cdc dang phai">...
Chuy&n cong du ddu tien eua Toi^
tho'ng Thein Sein tdi T n m g Quo'c vao ngay 26 thang 5 ndm 2011 eung la chuyfi'n cong du nddc ngoai dau tien cua ong sau khi Myanmar eb Chinh phu Dan sfl. Chuyen thdm lan nay nhdm muc dich tdng cudng quan he ngoai giao va kinh te' gifla hai ndde. Trong chuye'n t h a m nay, hai ben da nha't chi dda quan he hai nddc lfin tam
"doi tac chie'n Idpe todn difin". Hai nddc cimg tifi'n h a n h ky ke't n h i l u van ban hpp tae kinh tfi'va ky thudt. Chuyfi'n thdm nay mpt lan nfla khdng dinh ro hem vi tri ciia Tnmg Qufi'e trong lAi tifin quan he ngoai giao eua Myanmar.
Td ngay 5 de'n ngay 7 thang 4 nam 2013, Tong thfl'ng Myanmar Thein Sein da de'n tham dfl Dien dan Bdc Ngao d Tam A, Hai Nam. Chu tich Tap Can Binh da hpi dam vdi t i n g thong Thein Sein ve sU phat trien cua quan he db'i tac chie'n lupc todn difin gifla Trung Qufi'c va MyanmarB'.
Tren thifc te, khong cb nhd lanh dao the he t h d 5 nao cua Trung Quoc tdi tham Myanmar trong nhuhg chuye'n cflng du khu vflc cua hg trong n a m 2013. Chu tich Tap Can Binh va Thu tfldng Ly Khac Cfldng da tdi tham Uen tie'p 5 qufi'e gia ASEAN nhuhg trong db khflng cb Myanmar vd PhiUppines. Dilu nay the hien sd dieu chinh trong ehinh sach ngoai giao cua Tnmg Quoc vdi Myanmar. Trung Quoc
Lg Vdn My, Trdn Hdi Yen - Cgnh tranh chien luac gida Trung Qudc vd My.. 17 d a i ^ n6 liic xay dflng cdc mfi'i quan he
rifing re va khac bifit vdi tflhg nhom trong boh life Idgng chinh tri d Myanmar,'*' dong thdi gia tdng can dfl vdo cdc vdh d l xung dfit sdc tgc - ton giao d day. B6i vdi Bdng Bodn kit vd Phdt triin (USDP), Trung Quoc vdn hy vgng day se Id ldc Iddng chinh tri than thifin vdi Tnmg Qufi'e vd vdn kin ddo ca ngpi sde m a n h ehinh tri vd tham vpng eua ehu tieh dflcmg nhi^m Shwe Mann. Ddy eung la dng ed vifin cho vi tri tong thfi'ng cua Myanmar trong cuOc bau cd ndm 2015.
Bdng cdch thay doi tie'p c ^ ngoai giao, tang cfldng can dfl vao cdc van de sde tbe, Tnmg Quo'c dang tim each sd dung cdc nguin life vd anh hddng de thich flng cac nhu edu cua Myanmar trong qud trinh cai cdch. Tfl db Trung Qufl'c cb t h l bao vfi cac Ipi ich quan trgng cua minh tai Myanmar.
Nhiftig edeh t i l p edn vd chinh sdeh rieng re cua Trung Qufi'c dfi'i vdi cae phe phdi quyln ldc chinh tri khac nhau d Myanmar cho thay mpt chifi'n Idgc qufl'c gia tinh vi hdn, da dang htfh cua nfldc nay. Trung Qufl'c hien da bat kip vd thich nghi vdi thdc te' ehinh tri mdi d Myanmar sau hai ndm quan he gifla hai nfldc eb phdn tram ldng.
Bd'i vdi My: Trong thdi gian Chinh phu Qudn sd len cdm quyln tai Myanmar, My vd cac nflde phflcmg Tay da ra lenh ca'm van v l kinh tfi', eo lap ve ngoai giao dfi'i vdi qufi'c gia nay. My hau nhfl khfing cb bat Id quan he chinh tri - ngoai giao ndo vdi Myanmar trong giai doan ndy. Nhiftig td sau khi Chinh quyen cua T i n g thfl'ng Thein Sein lfin cam quyln vdo thang 3 ndm 2011 vd tifi'n h a n h nhieu eai each dan chu thi quan hfi My - Myanmar da bddc sang "mdt trang mdi".
Chinh quyln My trfldc day gpi Myanmar Id mfit mfl'i nguy hiem do'i vdi
nen hba binh the gidi. Nhflhg khi ong Barack Obama trd t h a n h Tong thfi'ng. My da hfla hen "buong long ndm dain" cde che do ngoan cfl' nhat the gidi vd thdnh cflng nie rd dfi'i vdi Myanmar - qufi'c gia dbng kin cfla n h a t d Dong Nam A"°'. Ndm 2009, Tong thfi'ng Obama da yfiu cau xem xfit lai va'n d l chinh saeh do^i vdi van de Myanmar, van duy tri eac bien phdp truhg phat nhuhg md ra eho ca hai bfin mfit cuflc do'i thoai, ban dau chinh sach ndy dUdng nhu khong cb tae dung do'i vdi Myanmar.
Nhdhg k l tfl khi Tong thong Thein Sein lfin ndm chinh quyen, flng Derack MiteheU, hifin la Dai sfl My tai Myanmar da nbi "chiing tdi luu y thdy ngidn ddn dng ndy dd khdc triidc", nghia Id Tong thb'ng Thein Sein da trd thdnh ngddi md ngddi My cb the tin va nbi chuyfin dflpc"".
Thdng 11 ndm 2011 chuye'n thdm lich sd cua Ngoai trddng My Hillary Clinton dfi'n qufl'c gia Dflng Nam A ndy mgt lan nfla khdng dinh. My hoan nghfinh nhiihg cai each dan ehu cua Myanmar va sdn sang xem xet vifie xba lfinh cam van. Ngoai trfldng My da cb cube gap vdi Tong thfi'ng Thein Sein, lanh dao Dang Lien dodn Ddn tgc vi Ddn chu (NLD) ba Aung San Syu Kjd, eung nhd vdi cde nha lanh dao cua cac nhbm sac tfic. Ngoai trfldng My khdng dinh rdng "niu xu thi cdi cdch tiip tuc duac duy tri thi My se chudn bi dp dung cdc budc di thiip theo'^^'^\ Cube gdp nay da md ra mot chdcfng mdi trong quan he hai nfldc vb'n da bi dbng bang tfl lau.
Tie'p theo chuye'n tham "ldm tan bdng"
cua Ngoai trfldng Hillary CUnton vao cuoi nam 2011, nhilu quan ehde vd Nghi sy Qufi'e hgi My da dfi'n t h a m Myanmar. Quan he ngoai giao song phflcmg dfltfc cai thien mgt each ro rfit. Ngay sau khi Myanmar tifi'n hanh bau ed b l sung, ngdy 4 thdng 4
18 Nghien cifu Dong Nam A 212015 nam 2012, Ngoai trfldng My Hillary
Clinton dpe cUen vdn, tuyen bo cd Dai sd Dae menh toan qi^en dfi'n Myanmar, ndi long lfinh cdin dau td, xba bd mflt loat cde lfinh cam khdc vd md lai Vdn phbng cua Ctf quan Phat trien qufl'c te' Hoa Ky (USAID) tai Rangoon"''.
Sau khi tai ddc cd khbng lau, Tong thfi'ng My Barack Obama da eb chuyfi'n thdm chinh thfle de'n Myanmar vao ngdy 19/11/2012. Sd kifin ndy thu hut sd quan tdm cua ca thfi' gidi, du chi dflng lai Myanmar trong mgt thdi gian ngan nhflhg hifiu qud chuyfi'n tham ndy mang lai Id rdt ldn cho ea My vd Myanmar. Chuyfi'n thdm Myanmar cua T i n g thb'ng My da xay ddhg hinh tUtfng "My query trd lgi Myanmar", ndng cao mfit edeh thiic chd't quan hfi My - Myanmar"*'. Tong tho'ng Obama da to chdc gap mat vdi Tong thong Thein Sein, bd Aung San Suu Kyi vd dpe cUen van tai Dai hpc Rangoon. Ong bay to sfl "dng hp ddi vdi cong cupc cdi cdch cua Myanmar ud tuy&n bd uien trg 170 tri&u USD cho Myanmar"^'^^\
Tr&n linh utfc kinh ti, thUang mgi:
Doi vdi Trung Quoc: Sau edi edeh chi'nh tri cua Myanmar, quan he kinh tfi' cua hai nfldc eb phan giam sut hem so vdi thdi ky ehinh quyen quan sif. Li do Id bdi gid day Trung Qub'c da gap phai su canh tranh dfi'n tfl My vd cdc nddc khac khi Myanmar tie'n hdnh md cda nen kinh te'. Tuy nhifin, vdi anh hddng truyen tho'ng qua hai thlip ky, Trung Qufi'c vdn dbng mbt vai trb quan trpng trong n i n kinh tfi' Myanmar.
Vi thuang mgi song phiiang, thuong mai song phfltfng hai nddc vdn ddpc duy tri phdt triln. Tinh dfi'n nay, Tnmg Quoc vdn Id dfi'i tde thdtfng mai ldn nhat eua Myanmar.
Xet vl tong t h l , Tnmg Qufi'e vdn la nfldc ddn dau v l vfi'n dau td nfldc ngoai tai
Myanmar. Tinh de'n hfi't ndm 2012, ddu tu eua Trung Qufl'c tai Myanmar dat gdn 15 ty USD, chifi'm 34,15% tong vb'n dau tif nddc ngoai d Myanmar. Trung Qufl'c c6 khoang 175 doanh nghiep vd hem 90 du an, nhd may san xua't dang boat dgng tai Myanmar"^'.
Tai Myanmar hifin nay cb 5 du an Idn Trung Quoe thdng thdu, g&m dU dn khai thac md dong Lepadaungtaung, du an thuy difin Myitsone Dam, dfl dn thuy di$n Tarpain, dd an dfldng sat vd dfldng fi'ng dan khi Kyaukphyu - Cfin Minh, dfl dn khai thac mo Nickel Takaung. Doi vdi du dn thdy di&n Myitsone da ddtfc khdi cfing xay duhg td thang 11/2009 vd dd kieh se hodn td't nam 2017. Khi hodn thanh, rihk may thuy dien Myitsone cb the san xuat khoang 29.400 KWH difin mfii ndm. Dap thuy dien Myitsone ddge xem Id dap nudc ldn thfl 15 trfin the' gidi. Chi phi xay ddng cho du dn nay tdcmg duong 3,6 ty USD vd ehi phi xay duhg deu do Trung Qufi'c dau tU, thbng qua Tdp dodn Dau tfl Ndng Iddng Trung Qufi'e (China Power Investment Corporation). Mde du Trung Qufi'e cho rdng qua trinh xay dflng ebng trinh nay se tao thfim vific Iam, tdng thfim thu nhap cho n ^ d i Iao dgng Myanmar nhdhg thdc tfi' so cfing nhan Myanmar tren cfing trfldng cH bang 1/3 sfi' cfing n h a n Trung Qufi'c"". Bfin canh db, cfing trinh thuy difin Myitsone se lam mat htfn 70.000 ha khu riftig nguyfin sinh, cung cae vung dat eanh tdc va cfl tni d day, nhilu loai dgng thflc vdt se bie'n mat va tinh da dang sinh hgc trong khu vde se sut giam. Dap nfldc se lam ng$p 47 ngfli lang trong vung vd bugc htfn 10.000 ngddi dan tgc Kachin phai ehuyin dfi'n eh5 b mdi"*'. Thang 9 ndm 2011, t i n g thfl'ng Tliein Sein da chinh thdc tuyen bfl' dinh chi du dn nay vfi thdi ban vi nhflhg nguy
Le Vdn My, Trdn Hdi Yen - Cgnh iranh chien lugc gida Trung Qudc vd My... 19 Cff v l mfli trfldng va xa hfii. Quye't dinh ndy
dupc coi la mfit trong nhuhg nguyen nhan ldm quan he T n m g Quo'c - Myanmar xa'u di nhanh chbng.
Ddi vdi dtf dn diidng sdt vd dudng dng d&n khi Kyaukphyu • Cdn Minh, cde dfldng ong dan khi da ddpe hoan thdnh. Dfl kifi'n ban dau Id 12 ty m3 khi dfi't td nhifin ddpc xuat khau, nhuhg eon so' thflc tfi' chi dat 1,8 ti m3'"". Trong khi db, nhflhg vaii d l phflc tap nhfl tranh chap boi thudng dat dai vd quyln con ngifdi bi lam dung dgc theo tuyen dUcmg ohg nay vdn ebn ehfla dddc giai quye't. Lifin quan den dddng fi'ng dan khi Id tuyfi'n dddng sdt Kyaukphyu - Cfin Minh. Du an nay da bi huy bb sau hcfn 3 ndm khfing t r i l n khai dUtfe hpp dong. Du dn ndy dddc coi Id gay nhilu bat lpi htfn Id mang lai ldi ich cho ngddi dan dia phdcfng.
Trung Qufi'c dang xdy dflng dnh hfldng ciia ho dfi'i vdi ede nflde ehau A. Nflde ndy mufi'n thlic hifin tuyfi'n dddng sdt ldn xuyfin A ddi hdng ngan dam chay qua Ldo, Campuchia, Thdi Lan, Myanmar va Singapore, tuye'n dddng sdt Kyaukphyu - Cfin Minh Id mfit phan cua ke' hoaeh nay.
Doi udi My: Bfin canh sfl "dm l&n" ve quan he chinh tri ngoai giao, thi quan he kinh tfi' - thflong mai dau td eua My vd Myanmar cung cb sif gia tang dang k l . Khi My tifi'n hdnh cac bien phap trflhg phat Myanmar, quan hfi thflcmg mai - ddu td gifla hai nfldc gan n h u Id con sfl' khfing'^"'.
Tuy nhifin, khi chinh phu cua Tong thfi'ng Thein Sein tifi'n h a n h cai each dan ehu, bfin canh quan he chinh tri - ngoai giao dUtfc "ldm tan bdng" thi quan he kinh tfi' eua hai nddc cung dflgc cai thifin.
Ngdy 6 thdng 2 nam 2012, Tong thfl'ng My Barack Obama tuyfin bfl' dd bb mpt phan lfinh trflhg phat kinh tfi' d^i vdi Myanmar. Ddy Id dflng thai chdhg tb My
da cong nhan nhuhg chuyin bifi'n tich cflc v l cai edeh dan chu ma Chinh phu Myanmar tie'n hanh. Theo thong eao eua Bfi Ngoai giao My, tuy chfla xba bb him lfinh edin van, nhuhg My da ndi long htfn rat dang ke. Quyfi't dinh nay se eho phfip Myanmar tiep nhan nguon vfi'n hfi trp tfl cac dinh chfi' tai ehinh nhu Ngdn hdng The' gidi, Ngdn hang Phat trien Chau A, Quy t i l n te Qub'c tfi' sau gan hai thap ky. Ngdy 7 thang 11 nam 2012, My da chinh thfle dd bd eac lfinh cam van kinh te' db'i vdi Myanmar, cho phep cac cfing ty cua My ddu td vdo Myanmar. Tuy nhien, Chinh phu My yfiu cau cde cfing ty cua nunh cung cap chi tie't ve toh hinh ddu td d Myanmar.
Tinh dfi'n hfi't nam 2012, My cb 15 doanh nghiep dang dau td d thi trddng MyanmEU" vdi so vo'n hcfn 243 trifiu USD, chifi'm 0,59% t6ng so' vfi'n dau tU nUde ngodi d Myanmar"^". Dau tu cua My xfi'p thd 13 trong t i n g sfi' 32 nha dau tU nddc ngodi dupe thfl'ng ke tai Myanmar thdi dilm ndy.
Nhdhg con sfl' nay ciing khbng cb nhieu thay doi cho tdi thang 5 nam 2014.
Cb the thay, ddu td hifin nay cua My d Myanmar ehda thde sU manh me so vdi cac nddc khac, ddc bifit la Trung Qufi'e. Tuy nhien, vdi chinh sach chdt che cua minh.
My dang bddc dau md r a mflt mfli trddng ddu td mang tinh than thien vbi chinh ngddi dan Myanmar. Dieu nay se Id mpt Igi thfi' cua My so vdi Trung Qufi'e trong viec gia tang dau td tai Myanmar trong tfldng lai.
Tr&n linh utfc an ninh - qudc phong:
Boi vdi Trung Quoc: Trung Quo'c cb anh hddng manh me tai Myanmar v l Iinh vdc an ninh - qufl'c phbng trong sufl't thbi ky nfldc nay ehiu ca'm van. Day Id nddc ban vu khi chu yfi'u eho chinh quyln qudn sfl cua Myanmar. Tfl nam 2003, Trung Quoc Id
20 Nghien cdu Dong Nam A 2I20I5
nfldc dau tien va duy nhat dfltfc phep xay dflng can cfl quan sd tai dao Coco eua Myanmar d An Do Dfltfng, dfl'i difin An Dp'^'. Dilu ndy da tao dieu kifin eho Trung Quoc xay ddhg ehie'n Iflcfe "chufii ngpe trai"
b khu vfle An Dp Dflcmg. Trong suot hai thap "ky qua, Trung Quoc da trd thanh cho dda tin cdy eho ehinh phu quan sfl Myanmar. Sau khi nudc nay cai each chinh tri tfl nam 2011, vai trb cua Tnmg QuSc tren Bhh vde an ninh - qufi'c phbng khfing cbn gifl vi thfi' "dge ton" nhU tnfde nfla. Tuy nhifin, qudn dpi Myanmar van ddpe danh gid Id nhbm than Tnmg Quoe nhat. Day dfltfc coi la mfit phan di san trong mfii quan hfi dae bigt cua Trung Qufl'c vdi Chinh phu Qudn sd Myanmar.
Bdi vdi My: Tnfde day, quan dpi Myanmar chu yeu dua vao Tnmg Qu6c trong qudn sU, nhflng sau khi eb nhiing tin hieu cdi md cua nen chinh tri, Myanmar dd (» thfim dfl'i tflgng hgp tdc ve mat quan sd, trong db cb hpp tac vdi My. My se cung cap y te qudn sd vd dao tao huan luyfin binh si Myanmar v l eac mdt cai each quoc phbng. Bp trddng Bg quoc phbng My Leon Pattena da khdng dinh "Chung tdi se khuyin khich mdi quan h& qudn stf vdi tdt cd cdc niidc trong khu ui/fc md chung tdi quan t&m, hi cd Myanmar.'^^'
C6 the thay rdng, trong cufic canh tranh anh hddng d Mjranmar, Trung Qufi'c vd My trong timg linh viic deu eo nhuhg t h ^ manh va ban che rifing eua minh. Nhin nhan mot each todn dien, vai tro cua Trung Qufic d Myanmar dfltfc diia tren cd sd viftig chae va nubi dubhg trong mpt thdi gian daL Nhdhg cai thien trong quan he My - Myanmar khb eb t h l xba bd hoan todn anh hudng cua Trung Quoc d quoe gia ndy. Tuy nhifin, vific eanh tranh anh hddng gifla hai eddng qufl'e nay gidp cdn
bang lai vai tro cua moi nfldc d Myanmar.
My va Trung Quo'c vdi nhuhg thfi' manh cua rieng minh se tao ddtfc nhuhg anh hfldng nhat dinh tai day.
Vdi nhi2ng left t h e c6 dfltfe, cac quo'c gia Tilu vung song Mekong nbi ehung vd Myanmar nbi rieng trong tddng lai vdn se Id mbt trong nhflhg diem nbng cua qua trinh gia tdng a n h hfldng gifla cdc nifiJc ldn. Tai Myanmar c6 le Trung Quoc vdn gifl ddtfe vai trb n l i trpi hem so vdi My, nhuhg My eung dang trong qua trinh day nhanh a n h hudng eua minh tai ddy. Dieu quan trgng la chinh quyen NayPyiTaw se cb nhflhg phan dhg thiet thflc nhfl the nao trong vifie sd diong nguon tai nguyfin dia - chinh tri, kinh te de edn bang lgi ich ciia quoc gia vdi lgi Ich cua eac nhdn to ben ngodi ddc biet la cae nude ldn nhd Trung Qufi'e, My, Nhat Ban... Day la mgt bdi toan khflng dfi dang bugc cdc nhd lanh dao cua Myanmar phai giai quyfi't de dda dat nddc chua vdng quay trd lai thdi ki hodng kim trfldc kia7.
C H U T H I C H 1. Nguyin Vim Lap (2002), Trdt ttf thi giai
sau 11-9: Su chuyen hUdng dong hot trong chinh, NXB Thfing Tdh. Ha Noi, tr.225.
2. HiUaiy Clintcm, America's Pacific Century, h t t p : / / w w w . f o r e i g n p o l i c y . c o m / a r t i - cles^011/10/ll/americas_pacific_century 3. Vu Khuong Duy, "Bdn ve chinh sdch ngoai
giao nhdn quyen eua My", dang tren httpy/www.dav.edu.vn/en^troduction/orga ' nization-structure.html ?id=46 7 :so-33-ve- chinh-sach-ngoai-giao-nhan-quyen-cua-my 4. Michael F. Martin (2013), "U.S. PoUcy
Towards Burma: Issues for the 113*
Congress", (CRS) Report for Congress
U Vdn My, Trdn Hdi Yen - Cgnh tranh chien lUpc gida Trung Qudc vd My... 21 Congressional Research Service, March 12,
2013, pp. 1
5. Michael F. Martin (2013), "U.S. Policy Towards Burma: Issues for the 113*^
Congress", (CRS) Report for Congress Congressional Research Service, March 12, 2013.
6. Hai nudc thudng dng hfi ldp tnfdng cQa nhau tai Lifin Hgp Quoc vd cdc diln ddn khdc. Trung Qufl^c thudng dtmg quyln phii quylt cua minh d l bdc bfi cdc N ^ i quylt ciia Hfii dfing Bdo an Lien Hgp Quic vl vi§c lfin an Myanmar vi pham nhdn quyln, ddn dp cdc cuflc bilu tinh ehing chinh phfi.
7. http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_chn/gjhdq_60 3914/gj_603916/yz_603918/1206_604498/s bgx_604502/
8. http://www.fmprc.gov.cii/mfa_chn/gihdq_60 3914/gi_603916/yz_603918/1206^604498/s bgx_604502/
9. Cdc trung tam quyln lUc chinh tri mdi cf Myanmar bao g&m chinh phii do Ting ih6ng Thein Sein lanh dao; Ddng Lien minh Dodn k i t vd Phdt trien (USDP) dudi sit lanh dao ciia Chu tich Quoc hfii Myanmar Shwe Mann; qudn doi Myanmar dudi sU chl huy cua Tong tU lfinh qudn dfii - Min Aung Hlaing vd life lupng dSn chii dfii ldp do bd Aung San Suu Kyi lanh dao.
10. M^c du vay, chinh sdch nay cua My Iai khong thdnh cfing d Bde Trieu Tien vd Iran. Xem them: TTXVN - TLTKDB (Cdc vdn de quo^c tl) thdng 8/^013, tr.7.
11. TTXVN - TLTKDB (Cdc vdh dl quic tl) thdng 8/2013, tr.7.
12. CHnton meets Burma (Myanmar) President Thein Sein, Aung San Suu Kyi
dang trfin:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia- Pacific/2011/1202/Clinton-meets-Burma- Myanmar-President-Thein-Sein-Aung-San- Suu-Kyi.
13. TTXVN - TLTKDB (Cdc vdh dl Quic tl) thdng 8/2013 tr. 46.
14. Tai Yangoon, Obama tuyfin bo khdi dfing
"Quan hfi doi tdc thuc day hfia binh ddn
chu vd phon vinh gifla My vd Myanmar", hai nudc thoa thudn sfi hpp tdc dua theo 4 nguyen tdc ldn la "md cda, minh bach, cfi trdch nhifim, eae edp dia phuong cimg tham gia", trgng dilm hpp tdc trfin 4 linh vuc ldn "dan ehu, nhdn quyln vd phap tri",
"quan 15' chinh phu minh bach hfia", hba binh vd hfia gidi", phat triln vd phln vinh". Xem chi tiet tai, TTXVN - TLTKDB (Cdc vah de Quo'c te) thdng 8/2013, tr. 47.
15. TTXVN - TLTKDB (Cdc vah dl Quic tfi") thdng 8/2013, tr. 46.
16. http://www.state.gOv/e/eb/rls/othr/ics/2013/
204612.htm
17. So cfing nhdn cua Trung Quic tai cao dilm thi cfing se len den 40.000 ngUdi. Xem them: http://www.warecod.org.vn/vn/thong- tLn/tin-tuc-su-kien/43/232/Myanmar-dinh- chi-xay-dung-dap-thuy-dien-Myitsone.aspx.
18. http://www.warecod.org.vn/vn/thong- tin/tin-tuc-su-kieii/43/232/Myanmar-dinh- chi-xay-dung-dap-thuy-dien-Myitsone.aspx.
19. http://giaoduc.net.vn/Quoc-te/De-Trung- Quoc-lam-duong-sat-Myanmar-co-the-mat- chu-quyen-nhu-Crimea-postl48817.gd.
20. Co chang chi la cac to chdc cdU trp phi chinh phu, phi nhfin dao dupc din Myanmar dl thifc hifin vific hb trp nhfin dao.
21. http://www.state.gOv/e/8b/ris/othr/ics/2013/
204612.htm.
22. Chu Cfing Phtmg (2011), Mianmar: Lich sd vd hi&n tgi, Nxb Chinh tri Quoc gia, Ha Nfii. Tr. 181.
23. Cam ket ndy cua My dUpc Bfi trudng Bo Quoc phbng My Panetta dua ra d Hpi nghi Shangri - la dugc to chdc tai Singapore ngay 2/6/2012. Cung tai hfii nghi nky phia Myamnar cung "ngo y" rdng chinh quyen cua Ting thb'ng Thien Sien sin sang ngoi vko bdn doi thoai vdi lUc lugng dfi'i ldp do bd Aung Sann Suu Kyi ddng dau de bdn vl cai cdch dan chu - nhan quyln, hai vdh de md My dae bifit quan tSm khi cdn nhac thuc ddy quan hfi vdi Myanmar vd Id ye'u to quye't dinh de My vd Myanmar phat triln quan hfi qudn sU trong thbi gian tdi.
