Tang trudng bao ham: nen tang cho phat trien kinh te ben vung 6 Viet Nam*
P H A M M I N H T H A I L E K I M SA
- ^ 1 au hdn 20 nam ddi mdi, Viet Nam da dat ditoc nhieu thdnh cdng ve tdng tritdng vd 3 ^ giam ngheo vdi gan 30 trieu ngudi thoat ngheo. Tuy nhien, qud trinh giam ngheo d Viet Nam hien nay dang phdi doi mat vdi rat nhiiu thach thiic mdi, ddc biet Id tinh trang hat binh ddng gia tdng. Do do, trong bdi canh hoi nhap qudc tetodn dien, Viet Nam cdn co cdch tiep can mdi ve mgt phiiong thitc tdng triidng kinh te nhanh vd dam bdo sit cong bang. Bdi vii't phdn tich thitc trang md hinh tdng tritdng vi ngitdi ngheo d Viit Nam, chi ra nhitng kho khan vd thach thUc cua mo hinh ndy, dong thdi di xuat mo hinh tdng tritdng hao hdm nhit Id mot gidi phap hitu hieu bd sung cho md hinh tdng triidng vi ngiidi ngheo, nhdm dam bdo cho sit phat triin vd giam ngheo bin vitng d Viet Nam trong giai doan hdi nhap qud'c tehien nay.
' I ' a n g t r u d n g vi ngUdi ngheo t a p t r u n g - ^ n h i e u tdi k h i a canh phuc Ipi eua ngudi nghdo, la'y t h a n h qua cua t a n g trudng cao de p h a n bo lai cho ngudi ngheo, giiip hp vUdt qua dUde t i n h t r a n g nghdo ddi thdng q u a cac c h i n h sach v l t h i trUdng lao ddng va chinh sach bao trp xa hdi. Tuy nhien, n e u ehi cd t a n g t r u d n g cao t h i chUa du dd d a m bao cho viec giam nghdo t h a n h cdng va ben viing, bdi le q u a t r i n h t a n g trUdng da tao r a nhUng sii ba't b i n h d a n g ve t h u n h a p va chi tieu, tii dd d i n tdi nhflng ba't dn trong xa hpi va a n h hudng ngUdc trd lai lam giam qua t r i n h t a n g trudng. H d n th6' niia, viec tai p h a n phd'i t h u n h a p tii nhiing k e t qua t a n g trUdng cho ngUdi ngheo se tao r a mpt g a n h n a n g Idn tdi n g a n sach n h a nude vdn da ra't eo hep va d i l u n a y se a n h h u d n g tdi sU giam ngheo ben viing.
Da t a n g t r u d n g tao r a nhd cac chudng t r i n h ddi mdi d a n g cd nguy cd giam d i n . Nguyen n h a n la do a n h h u d n g ket hdp cua cac yeu to'trong nUde va t h e gidi. Ket qua ciia cac cai each hien t a i d a n g dan d a t tdi ngUdng gidi h a n , t r o n g k h i dd d ben ngoai, mdi trUdng toan c l u da cd n h i l u t h a y ddi Idn. Hpi n h a p ciing k h i e n cho Viet N a m d l bi a n h h u d n g hdn bdi sU dao ddng cua t h i trUdng
h a n g hda, rdi loan tai chinh trong nen kinh te toan cau. Cac t h e che thi trUdng trong nUdc v l n chUa p h a t trien ddng d i u , n e n ngay cang gap nhieu khd k h a n khi dUdng d i u vdi mdi trUdng kinh te mdi. K i t qua la, n i n kinh t l Viet N a m phai t r a i qua nhieu ddt b a t dn vi mo, lap lai theo chu ky lam p h a t cao, t a n g trudng kinh te dang cd xu hUdng cham lai, thi t r u d n g lao ddng chinh thUc chUa thiic sii p h a t trien. Trong khi do n a n g sua't lao dpng khdng dUde t a n g len ma t a n g trUdng chu yeu la diia vao viec t a n g sd vdn dau tU ciing nhU t a n g sd' lao dpng. D i l u n a y la mot t h a c h thUc khdng nhd doi vdi chien iUdc p h a t trien n h a n h va b i n viing eua Viet N a m t r e n g cac giai doan t i l p theo. Chinh vi vay, Vi^t N a m c I n p h a i dn dinh n i n k i n h te vi md va dac biet q u a n t a m tdi viec p h a t tri^n thi trUdng lao dpng, t a n dung thdi ky dan sd' v a n g hien nay de tao r a mpt lUc lUdng lao ddng cd cha't lUdng va n a n g sua't cao, d a m bao dat dupe muc tieu t a n g trUdng ciing n h u sii p h a t trien dai h a n .
Pham Minh Thai, ThS.; Le Kim Sa, TS., Trung tam Phan tich va du bao.
* Nghien cihi nay duoc thuc hien nhd su taj tro cua Quy Hiat trien khoa hoc va cdng nghe qudc gia (Nafosted) trong khudn kho dl tai sd 114.5-201114.
23
Tang truorng bao ham:
1. T a n g t r i i d n g g i a m n g h e o cf V i e t N a m : t h a n h t i i u v a t h a c h t h i J c 1.1. Nhiing thanh tiiu
Nhiing ket qua dat dUpc ve t a n g trUdng kinh t e va giam ngheo d Viet Nam trong vdng h a i t h a p ky vUa qua dUdc danh gia la r a t a'n tUdng vdi ty le t a n g trUdng kinh te t r u n g binh dat trgn 7,5% trong sudt giai doan 2000 - 2012^ Ty le ngheo t i n h theo d i u ngudi (neu t i n h theo c h u a n ngheo " n h i m dap ling nhiing n h u cau cd ban") da giam dang ke tii 58,1% n a m 1993 xudng cdn 14,5% n a m 2008 va 14,2% n a m 2010 (dang chii y la ty le HINH 1: T a n g trifdfng k i n h t e v a g i a m
ngheo n a m 2010 dUdc t i n h theo c h u i n ngheo mdi cao hdn cho giai doan 2011-2015).
H i n h 1 minh hpa tdc dp t a n g trUdng GDP b i n h q u a n d a u ngUdi cung n h u td'c dp giam nghec n h a n h cua Viet N a m tii n a m 1993 din n a m 2008 theo cac thdi ky 5 n a m cua cac ke hoach p h a t t r i e n k i n h t e xa hpi cua Viet Nam qua 3 giai doan (1996 - 2000; 2001 - 2005 v£l 2006 - 2010). Cd t h e noi Viet N a m da dat dupe h l u h i t cac Muc tieu p h a t t r i l n thien nien ky (MDG), va t h a m chi la vUdt chi tieu d l r a trong mdt so' chi tidu nha't dinh (Ngan h a n g T h i gidi, 2013).
n g h e o of V i e t N a m : h a i t h a p k y d a t t i e n bp 2006-2010 SEDf I
u.ooc ? e a.va C
d e lO.OOC'^
.E
I.OM ^
•S
:.ooo Q O
I?94 IWJ 1??S 199- 1,25USDfng(fdi/ngaytheo
*sijic mua tutirtg duong 2005
LMf 2K0 :ooi : K : :OOJ ivn :30! JOG* : » ? iocs Chuan ngheo tfnh theo d^u
ngilfti cua TCTK-NHTG
„._2USD/ngueii/ngJy theo silt
mua tutmgdimg 2006 GDP binh quan dau ngifdi
idn: Ngan hkng Thd gidi, 2013.
Khoang each p h a t trien vdi cae nudc dang d a n dupe t h u hep, dae biet la khi t i n h GDP theo P P P . Nam 2008, mUc GDP binh q u a n d i u ngudi cua Viet N a m d a t 17,1 trieu ddng, tUdng dUdng 1.040 USD theo ty gia hd'i doai va 2.784 USD theo ty gia siic m u a tUdng dUdng (PPP) (IMF, 2009). Den n a m 2010, con so'nay da len tdi t r e n 3.000 USD (Ngan h a n g T h i gidi, 2013). Nhiing k i t qua n a y da ddng
gdp dang ke vao t h a n h tich t a n g trUdng gap 4 l l n so v6i thdi ky d a u t h a p ky 1990, dUa Viet N a m t h o a t khoi d a n h sach cac nUde cd t h u n h a p tha'p va trd t h a n h quo'c gia cd miic t h u n h a p t r u n g b i n h tha'p.
1. S6 lieu tang trudng binh quan do tSc gia tir tinh toSn dua irSn sd lieu GDP thuc t^ theo gia so sdnli nam 1994 ciha Tdng cue Thdng ke.
24 NghiSn cQu Kinh tgsd430 - Thing 3/2014
Tang trirAng bao ham:
1.2. Nhiing thach thUc
Mac dli da cd nhiing t h a n h ttiu g i a m nghdo a'n tupng, n h i i n g k e t q u a n a y la khdng ddng d e u giiia cac v u n g , mien, n h d m d a n tdc va gifla t h a n h thi, n d n g t h d n (VASS, 2011). D i l u dd ciing cd n g h i a la v l n cd nhiing t h a c h thUe dd'i vdi md h i n h t a n g t r u d n g giam n g h e o d Viet N a m t r o n g giai doan tiep t h e o bao gdm: (i) su c h e n h lech d a n g k e t r o n g t i l n do giam ngheo; (ii) n g a n sach n h a nUdc k h d n g du di tiep tuc t a i t r p cac chUdng t r i n h t a i p h a n phd'i t h u n h a p triic tiep cho ngUdi nghdo t r o n g md h i n h t a n g t r u d n g g i a m ngheo n h u hien nay; (iii) t i n h t r a n g ba't b i n h d i n g d a n g tid'p tuc gia t a n g t r o n g xa hpi.
• Chenh lech Idn trong tien do giam ngheo giUa cdc vdng vd nhom ddn toe
Tien bp khdng ddng deu trong qua t r i n h giam ngheo dUde t h e hien k h a ro qua eac con so'thd'ng ke trong bang 1. Su chenh lech giiia t h a n h t h i va nong thdn trong tie'n trinh giam ngheo la k h a r5 ret; mac dii ty le ngheo d ca h a i k h u vUc nay d i u cd xu hUdng giam trong sudt cac n a m nghien cUu (tU n a m 1993 den n a m 2010), t y le ngheo d k h u vUe nong thon v l n cao hdn ra't nhieu so vdi k h u viic t h a n h thi. D i l u dang chii y la so vdi ty le ngheo t r u n g binh cua ca nUdc t h i ty le ngheo cua k h u viic t h a n h thi chi bang 1/4, trong khi do ty Id nghdo d ndng thdn da ga'p khoang 3 l l n t y le ngheo cua t h a n h t h i vao n a m 2010.
BANG 1: C h e n h l e c h t r o n g t i e n d o g i a m n g h e o (%)
C a n u d c
1993 58,1 Chenh 16ch giiia thknh thi va nOng thdn Thanh thi
Nong th6n
25,1 66,4 Chenh 16ch giiJa cac vung miln D6ng bang s6ng H6ng Viing D6ng M c Vung Tay BSc M c Trung Ba Nam Trung B6 Tay Nguyen Dong Nam Bb D6ng bang sOng Cihi Long
61,4 78,9 81 74,5 47,2 61,2 40 47,1 ChSnh Ifech giiJa cac dan t6c Kinh/Hoa
D6ng bao dan t6c thie'u s6' 53,9 86,4
1998 37,4
9 44,9
28,6 55,8 73,4 48,1 34,5 57,9 13,5 36,9
31,1 75,2
2002 28,9
6,7 35,6
22,4 38,4 68 43.9 25,2 51,8 10,6 23,4
23,1 69,3
2004 19,5
3,6 25
12,1 29,4 58,6 31,9 19 33,1 5,4 19,5
13,5 60,7
2006 16
3,9 20,4
8,8 25 49 29,1 12,6 28,6 5,8 10,3
10,3 52,3
2008 14,5
3,3 18,7
8.1 24,3 45.7 22.6 13,7 24,1 3,5 12,3
9 50,3
2010»
14,2
6.9 17,4
8,3
29,4
20,4
22,2 2,3 12.6
12.9 66.3
* Tinh theo chu^ ngheo mdi giai doan 2011-2015. Ket qua Khao sat miic sdng hd gia dinh nam 2010^
Nguon: Tdng cue Thong ke, Kdt qua khao sat miic sdng hp gia dinh nam 2008.
2. Theo c h u ^ ngheo mdi cho giai doan 2011-2015 thi chu& ngheo cho khu vuc thanh thi va ndng thdn tuong ling la 500.000 d/ngudi/thang va 400.000 d/ngudi/thang. Qiu£n ngheo ciia cac na.m trudc cho khu vuc th^nh thi va ndng thdn tuong iing la 450.000
d/ngudi/thang va 360.000 d/ngudi/thang cho nam 2010;
370.000 d/ngudi/thang va 290.000 d/ngudi/thang cho nam 2008; 260.000 d/ngudi/thang va 200.000 d/ngudi/diang cho nam 2006; 218.000 d/ngudi/thang va 168.000 d/ngudi/thang cho nam 2004.
NghiSn ciiu Kinh tgs6430 • Thing 3/2014 25
Tang trirdng bao ham:
Su chenh lech ve td'c dp giam ngheo ciing tUdng dd'i rd net giiia cac viing, m i l n va k h u vUc. Hai viing ddng b i n g sdng Hdng va Ddng N a m Bd vdi h a i t h a n h phd' Idn tUdng iing la H a Npi va t h a n h phd' Hd Chi Minh cd td'c dp giam ngheo n h a n h nha't, tii 61,4% n a m 1993 xudhg cdn 8,3% n a m 2010 ddi vdi viing thU nha't va tii 40% xud'ng cdn 2,3% dd'i vdi vung thU h a i ciing trong khoang thdi gian nay.
Tuy nhien, qua t r i n h giam nghdo d i l n r a k h a cham chap; ddi vdi k h u viic Tay B i c Bp va Tay Nguyen, ty Id ngheo cdn r a t cao d miic 45,7% va 24,1% vao n a m 2008 tUdng iing tai h a i k h u vUc nay. Do la do ca h a i k h u viic Tay Bac Bd va Tay Nguydn d i u cd mpt dac trUng chung la ndi t a p t r u n g sinh sd'ng cua h a u h i t ddng bao dan tdc thieu so' cua Viet Nam.
Trong khi ty le ngheo cua nhdm Kinh/Hoa giam dang k l tii 53,9% n a m 1993 xud'ng cdn 9% n a m 2008 va 12,9% n a m 2010, thi ty Id ngheo cua viing d a n tdc thieu so' giam khdng dang ke t u 86,4% n a m 1993 xud'ng 50,3%
n a m 2008 va 66,3% n a m 2010. Su t a n g len v l ty le ngheo n a m 2010 so vdi n a m 2008 la do su d i l u chinh v l c h u a n ngheo cho giai doan 2011 - 2015 cua Chinh phu. NhU vay cd thd ndi, mot trong nhiing thach thiic quan trpng g i n l i l n vdi viec giam nghdo d Viet N a m la va'n d l ngheo ciia dan toe thieu sd'.
"Dp trd" cua giam ngheo dd'i vdi t a n g trudng kinh te t h e hien k h a ro net d nhdm nay.
Nhieu ngUdi trong nhdm nay phai sd'ng trong canh ngheo kinh nien, nghia la hp nghdo ngay ca trong thdi ky nen kinh t e dang p h a t t r i e n va cdn nghdo hdn khi n e n k i n h t e gap khd khan. Sd' lieu dieu t r a mUc sd'ng hp gia dinh da cho tha'y eac nhdm d a n tdc thieu so' t u t h a u hdn ra't nhieu so vdi nhdm Kinh/Hoa khi xet v l tien dp giam ngheo.
Ngdn sdch nhd nUdc cho cdc chiiOng trinh tdi phdn phdi thu nhap giam ddn Mpt dac diem ra't q u a n trpng cua t a n g trudng vi ngUdi nghdo la t a n g t r u d n g vi ngudi ngheo chii yeu t a p t r u n g vao phiic Idi cua ngUdi ngheo thdng qua cac chUdng t r i n h tai p h a n phd'i triic tiep lai t h u n h a p . Trong n g l n
h a n , viec tai p h a n bd triic tiep t h u n h a p nhu vay cd t h e giiip giam bdt tac dpng tieu cue cua cac cu soc tdi ngUdi ngheo, t u y n h i e n viec lam n a y khdng thd la cau t r a Idi va giai phap giam ngheo trong dai b a n , ma t h a m chi cdn cd tac dpng tieu ciic ngay trong n g a n ban, dae bidt ddi vdi eac nUdc ngheo, cac nudc dang chuyen ddi nhU Vidt N a m . Bdi vi, trong n g l n h a n dd'i vdi cae nUdc n a y khi ma ngan sach vdn da ra't h a n hep t h i nhiing sii chuyen t i l n n h u vay se tao n e n mdt g a n h n a n g Idn tdi n g a n sach qud'c gia.
Tdng miic chi cho an sinh xa hdi d Viet Nam tinh den n a m 2020 se t a n g len dang ke, tuy nhien ty le ddng gdp t n i c t i l p tii ngSn sach n h a nUdc t i n h theo p h l n t r a m GDP se giam xud'ng dang ke (bang 2). Dieu nay hoan toan phli hdp vdi sii e h u y i n dich tii eac bien p h a p tai trd triic tiep tii n g a n sach sang cac bidn p h a p tai trd ngoai n g a n sach, dac bidt la tii phia thi trudng lao ddng trong md hinh t a n g trudng bao h a m . Dac biet trong d i l u kien do tdng chi n g a n sach n h a nude eua nen kinh t e Viet N a m trong giai doan 2006-2011 khdng chi gia t a n g n h a n h ve quy md gia t r i tuySt dd'i, ma cdn dat td'c dp t a n g trUdng cao hdn n h i l u so vdi tdng t h u n g a n sach n h a nUdc trong cung ky, n e n v l cd b a n can ddi ngan sach n h a nude ciia Viet N a m thudng rdi vao tinh t r a n g t h a m h u t can can n g a n sach trien mien^. Do dd, t h a m h u t n g a n sach la mdt van de Idn trong dai h a n cua Viet N a m va se khdng cd nhieu d u dia v l n g a n sach cho sii tai p h a n bd t n i c tiep t h u n h a p cho ngUdi ngheo trong cac chUdng t r i n h giam ngheo theo md h i n h t a n g trudng giam ngh^o n h u trudc day.
3. Theo sd heu ciia Tdng cue Thd'ng ke, quy md tham hut cin can ngSn sach ciia n^n kinh t^ Viet Nam da gia tang khdng chi ve gia tri tuySt ddi (dat miic 111,5 nghJn ty ddng;
tang gap 2,29 ian va 4,68 Idn so vdi miic tham hut can can ngan sach ctia nam 2006 va nam 2001) ma cdn ca v^ ty IS tham hut can can ngSn sach so vdi GDP trong cung Ity (mac dii nam 2011 chi dat ty le tham hut ngan sach khoang 4,9%
GDP, nhung ty le tham hut ngan sdch binh quan nam cua Viet Nam vln dat miic kha cao - khoang 5,43% GDP trong giai doan 2006-2011, cao hem nhi^u so voi miic thSm hut ngan sach binh quan nSm 4,86% GDP trong giai doan 2001- 2005) (Nguyen Cao Diic, 2012).
26 NghiSn ciiu Kinh t& sO 430 - Thing 3/2014
Tang trudng bao hdm:
BANG 2: N g u o n li^c t a i c h i n h tii n g a n s a c h n h a ni^dfc c h o a n s i n h x a h o i t r o n g c a c g i a i d o a n
Tdng ngu6n luc cho an sinh xahei
Trong do tong huy ddng tir ngSn sach nha nudc Tning binh
% tmng binh tinh theo ngan sach nha nudc
% tning binh tinh theo GDP
Giai doan 2004-2008 ty dong 221.000 146.000 29.200
%
100,0%
66,1%
10,0%
3,2%
Giai doan 2011-2015 ty dong 821.800 301.200 60.300
%
100,0%
37,0%
8,7%
2,7%
Giai doan 2016-2020 ty dong 1.437.000
418.900 84.000
%
100,0%
29,0%
7,6%
2,3%
Ngudn: DiT thao chi^n lupc an sinh xa hdi 2011 - 2020 (ban thao lin thii 6).
• Tinh trang bdt binh ddng gia tdng V l m a t ly t h u y l t , td'c dp t a n g trUdng t r u n g b i n h k h a la d i l u ki§n can cho sii giam ngheo n h a n h va b i n viing, t u y nhien cd n h i l u bang chUng cho tha'y n e u chi cd t a n g t r u d n g khdng t h i chua du d l d a m bao cho ta't ca mpi ngUdi dupe h u d n g Ipi txi nhiing t h a n h q u a t a n g trudng mdt each cdng bang (Ali va Son, 2007). T a n g trUdng cd t h e se bd q u a ngUdi nghdo hoac nhiing n h d m y l u t h e de bi tdn thUdng t r o n g xa hpi, d i n tdi gia t a n g ba't b i n h ddng xa hdi. Khi dd sii ba't binh dang v l t h u n h a p n g a y cang t a n g se lam giam tac ddng tich ciic tdi giam ngheo, do dd d a n tdi giam toe dp t a n g trUdng. Hdn t h i niia, t i n h t r a n g ba't b i n h dang cao se tac dpng xa'u tdi cac y l u to" giiip t a n g trUdng b i n viing nhU dn dinh v l chinh t r i va sii g a n k i t xa hpi.
6 Viet N a m "du d dd t h i h a y ndng thdn, dli giau h a y ngheo ngUdi d a n d i u cho r a n g t i n h t r a n g ba't binh d a n g da gia t a n g dang k l trong vdng 5 n a m trd lai day" (Ngan h a n g The gidi, 2013). Va'n d l ba't binh dang hien nay bao gdm ca nhiing b a t binh dang ve phUdng dien t h u n h a p , chi tidu va cac h i n h t h a i ba't b i n h d i n g khac nhU: ba't b i n h dang v l giao due, k h a n a n g t i l p can cac cd hdi viec lam tdt, k h a n a n g tiep can t a i nguyen da't, thii t u c . . . K e t q u a dieu t r a miic song hp gia djnh n a m 2010 (VHLSS 2010) eho tha'y h e so'
GINI - mdt he so' do ludng mUc chenh lech t h u n h a p va p h a n hda giau ngheo trong d a n cU - cd ket qua bang 0,43, t a n g so vdi he sd' 0,42 trong cac n a m 2002, 2004 va 2006. He so' chenh lech v l t h u n h a p binh q u a n mdt ngUdi mpt t h a n g giiia nhdm hd giau nha't va nhdm hp ngheo nha't la 9,2 l^n, t a n g hdn n h i l u Sd vdi cae ddt d i l u t r a trudc''. D i l u nay cho t h a y sii b a t binh dang ve t h u n h a p trong dan cU eiia Viet Nam v a n dang cd xu hudng t a n g len.
Ben canh sii t a n g len v l sii bat binh dang trong t h u n h a p , mpt c h i l u canh khac cua b ^ t binh dang cting xua't hien d Viet Nam, dd la ba't binh dang v l cd hpi cung nhU la sU t h a y ddi ciia ngudi dan trdng quan diem v l ba't binh dang. Cac bang chUng tU khao s a t miic sd'ng hp gia dinh da chi r a sU b a t binh dang ve ed hpi t h e hien rd net d sU ba't b i n h dang cua ngUdi d a n trong vide tiep can cac dich vu xa hdi (Vu Hoang Dat, 2012).
N h u vay, t i n h t r a n g ba't binh dang ve t h u n h a p va ba't binh dang v l cd hpi t a n g len tai Viet N a m cd t h e can trd t a n g trUdng trong dai h a n hoac giam siit t i n h gan k i t xa hpi, n g a n can cac nhdm d a n cu t h a m gia vao cac boat dpng cd t h u n h a p tdt hdn va tdn t a i qua n h i l u t h e he, d i n d e n t i n h t r a n g n g h e o keo 4. Nam 2008 la 8,9 Idn, nam 2006 la 8,4 lin, nam 2004 la 8,3 1^ va nSm 2002 la 8,1 lin.
NghiSn ciiU Kinh tSs6430 - Thing 3/2014 27
Tang trifdng bao ham:
dai trong n h i l u t h i he d mdt mdt bd p h a n dan cu. Ba't binh dang ve cd hpi, dac biet la cac h i n h t h a i ba't binh dang t r e n t h i trUdng lad dpng se duy tri d i n t h i he con chau cua nhUng ngUdi khong t a n dung dUpc cd hdi do qua t r i n h t a n g trUdng m a n g lai, va eo the lam cho cac nhdm dan tdc vdn da ngheo lai trd ndn ngheo hdn niia (Ngan h a n g T h i gidi, 2013). Day la cd t h e coi la t h a c h thiic Idn nha't ddi vdi viec d^y m a n h hieu qua giam ngheo cua Viet N a m trong giai doan tdi.
2. Mo h i n h t a n g trifdng b a o h a m c h o , V i e t N a m t r o n g thc^i k y h o i n h a p quo'c ti
2.1. Khdi niem ve tdng triidng bao hdm.
Tang trudng bao h a m dUdc s^ dung de chi qua t r i n h t a n g trUdng khdng chi tao r a cac cd hpi k i n h te', ma cdn dam bao cho t a t ca cac t h a n h vien xa hdi d i u cd t h e tiep can cac cd hpi nay mot each cdng bang. Tang trUdng dUdc cci la cd t i n h bao h a m khi cho phep ta't ca cac t h a n h vien xa hdi t h a m gia va hudng Ipi t u qua t r i n h t a n g trUdng, ba't ke hoan canh ea n h a n cua hp. T a n g trUdng bao h a m dac biet hUdng tdi sU t h a m gia cua nhUng ngudi trong lUc lUpng lao ddng nhUng cd n a n g sua't tha'p va t h a m chi bi hoan toan loai r a khdi qua t r i n h t a n g trUdng trong md hinh t a n g trudng giam ngheo trUde day, thdng qua day m a n h t i n h hieu qua cua t h i trUdng lao dpng va viec lam ed n a n g sua't.
T a n g trudng k i n h te dUdc coi la bao h a m khi: (i) t a n g trUdng do cho phep sii t h a m gia va ddng gdp cua ta't ea eac t h a n h vien trong xa hdi, ma dac bidt la t a p t r u n g vao nhdm y l u the'; va (ii) t a n g trUdng do p h a i dUa den sU giam bat binh dang (phi t h u nhap), vi d u n h u sii tiep can cac dich vu y te, siic khde, giao due va sU hda n h a p vdi xa hdi. Trong thiic te', t a n g trudng bao h a m ddi hdi: (i) t a n g trudng dUdng ve t h u n h a p d a u ngUdi; (ii) t a n g t h u n h a p cho nhiing nhdm yeu t h e hdn it nha't la phai b a n g mUc t a n g t h u n h a p binh q u a n d a u ngudi; va (iii) cai thien cac chi tieu phi t h u n h a p eho cac dd'i tUdng yeu t h e nhU
ngUdi ngheo, p h u nU, t r e em, ngUdi t a n tat, cac n h d m d a n tdc t h i l u so' va k h u viic ndng thdn (Klassen, 2010). K h a i niem n a y cd mdt h a m y r a t q u a n t r p n g ddi vdi cac n h a hoach dinh chinh sach theo nghia rling, nd yeu e^u mpt sU t h a y ddi tii viee t a p t r u n g vao ngUdi nghdo n h u la dd'i tUdng h u d n g Idi tU tang t r u d n g sang viec d a m bao cho hp t h a m gia v&
ddng gdp mpt each c h u ddng vao qua trinh t a n g trudng. Do vay, cac chinh sach v l viec lam c i n phai dUpc dUa vao t h a n h yeu to t r u n g t a m cua ba't cii chien lUpc t a n g trudng bao h a m nao.
D i l m khac biet giiia t a n g t r u d n g vi ngUdi ngheo va t a n g trUdng bao h a m la t a n g trUdng vi ngUdi nghdo c h u yeu q u a n t a m t a p trung vao phiic Ipi eua ngUdi ngheo, trong khi tang trudng bao h a m q u a n t a m tdi nhiing cd hpi cho h a u h e t liic lupng lao dpng, ngUdi ngheo va ea nhiing ngUdi thupc t a n g Idp t r u n g lUu (lanchovichina va L u n d s t r o m , 2009).
Mdt diem khac biet nQa la t r o n g khi tang trudng vi ngudi nghee cd s u t a p t r u n g truyen thd'ng vao viec do ludng tac ddng cua tang trudng tdi viec giam ngheo sii d u n g cac chi so do ludng nghdo k h a c n h a u , t h i t a n g trUdng bao h a m lai t a p t r u n g vao phUdng thUc de t a n g td'c dp cua t a n g trUdng t h d n g qua viec tdi Uu hda tilt ca cac t h a n h p h d n trong liic lUdng lao dpng.
2.2, Tang trudng bao hdm d Viet Nam:
khia canh thi trudng lao dong va'n de viec l a m la t r p n g t a m cua md hinh t a n g trudng bao h a m , dieu do cd n g h i a la cIn phai p h a t trien t h i t r u d n g lao dpng va dam bao cho t a t ca ngudi d a n cd cd hpi t h a m gia vao t h i t r u d n g lao dpng dd de ed t h e tao thu n h a p cho chinh b a n t h a n m i n h va txi do thoat ngheo mpt each b i n viing.
Trong giai doan 2006 - 2012, liic lupng lao dpng cua Vidt N a m t a n g deu dan, binh quan t h e m 1,06 trieu ngUdi/nam va dat khdang 52 tridu ngUdi vao n a m 2012, vdi t y le t h a m gia luc lupng lao ddng t a n g Hen tuc tii mtic 70,3%
n a m 2006 len 76,5% n a m 2009 va d a t miic 77,3% n a m 2012. Ty le t h a m gia luc lUdng lao
28 Nghien ciiu Kinh tS's6430 - Thang 3/2014
Tang truding bao ham:
dpng cao t r o n g 3 n a m 2007, 2009 va 2010 the hien ro d nhdm dan sd' 15-19 tudi. N a m 2007, t y Id t h a m gia liic lUpng lao ddng d nhdm tuoi n a y la 37,1%, t a n g len 43,8% vao n a m 2009 va dac biet len tdi 45% n a m 2010 dd'i vdi n a m gidi cho t h a y xu hudng t h a n h thieu nien sdm rdi bd he thd'ng giao due de tim k i l m viee lam, tao t h u n h a p eho ban t h a n va trd giiip gia
dinh. Tinh trang nay neu v l lau dai ed a n h hudng tieu cue cho sU phat t r i l n Idnh te-xa hdi eua Viet Nam, n h a t la trong bdi canh Chinh phu dang mudn chuyen md hinh phat trien kinh te theo chieu rpng, diia vao sii dung n h i l u lao ddng vdi gia re sang md hinh phat trien diia tren lUc lUdng lao dpng cd cha't lupng va nang sua't lao ddng cao (ILLSA, 2011).
H I N H 2: Lrfc l i f d n g l a o d o n g v a t y l e t h a t n g h i e p g i a i d o a n 2006 - 2012 4 S
4 7 4 6 4 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 4 1
2 0 0 6 2 00"7 2 0 0 S 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 n n m H U L L € > t r o n g <3"Q t u o i ( t r i - e u n g u o i >
— ^ T:}- l # t h a t n g h i e p i'H,) Nguon: Tdng cue Thdng ke.
Ty le tha't nghiep chung cua Viet N a m n a m 2012 la 1,99%, giam d a n g ke so vdi miic 2,9% va 2,88% t r o n g cac n a m 2009 va 2010.
Ty le tha't nghiep n a y t h a m chi cdn giam hdn so vdi n a m 2007 va 2008 (thdi ky trUdc khi k h u n g h o a n g t a i ehinh toan cl.u xay ra) vdi cac t y Id tUdng Ung la 2,4% va 2,38%. Trdng k h i do liic lupng lao ddng lien tuc t a n g trong cung giai doan vdi sd^ ngUdi trong dp tudi lao dpng t a n g txi 43,3 trieu ngUdi n a m 2006 len 45,2 trigu ngudi n a m 2009 va 46,95 trieu ngudi n a m 2012 da cho tha'y mdt no liic r a t Idn cua Chinh p h u trong viee tao viec lam mdi va duy t r i cdng a n viec lam cho ngudi lao dpng t r o n g ca giai doan 2006-2011.
T n n h dp eiia liic lUdng lao dpng cua Viet N a m la tUdng dd'i tha'p, xa'p xi 15% liic lupng lao dpng chUa tot nghi§p tidu hpc va k h o a n g g a n 30% la mdi tot nghiep bac tieu hpc. 1/3 lUc lUdng lao dpng tdt nghiep t r u n g hpc cd sd va ciing chi k h o a n g 1/4 lUc lupng lao ddng la hpc h e t bac t r u n g hpc phd thong. D i l u d a n g lo n g a i la so' lao dpng tdt nghiep t r u n g hoc cd sd d a n g cd xu hUdng giam d a n vdi cac ty le la
31,1% n a m 2007 xud'ng cdn 28,3% n a m 2010.
Dieu n a y mdt lan niia p h a n a n h thUc t r a n g sd' hpc sinh nghi hpc sdm d bac t r u n g hpc ed sd de t h a m gia vao liic lupng lao ddng la ngay cang t a n g len, tao r a mpt thach thUe khdng nhd cho Viet Nam trong vide dat dupe eac muc tieu p h a t trien ngudn n h a n lUc de lam chd diia eho su t a n g trUdng va p h a t trien trong tUdng lai.
3 . Ket l u a n
Hdn 2 t h a p nien qua, Vidt N a m da dUdc nhiing t h a n h ttiu dang ke trong va'n d l giam ngheo va t a n g trudng kinh te trong md h i n h t a n g t r u d n g va giam ngheo. Tuy nhien, v i n cdn ra't n h i e u thach thUc ma Viet N a m p h a i ddi m a t trong nhUng n a m t i l p theo, dd la: sii chenh lech ve ty le giam ngheo ra't ro ret giiia t h a n h thi va ndng thdn, giiia cae viing m i l n va dac biet la gifla nhdm d a n toe t h i l u so' vdi nhdm da sd' la Kinh/Hoa; sU thieu h o a n thien cua thi t r u d n g lao ddng, dac biet la t i n h t r a n g ba't b i n h dang khdng nhUng v l t h u n h a p ma cdn ca ba't binh dang ve cd hpi d a n g cd xu hudng t a n g len, ddi hdi can phai c6 su
Nghien ciiu Kinh t4sd430 - Thing 3/2014 29
Tang trifdng bao ham:
t a p t r u n g cao dp d l giai quyet neu khdng muon nhiing yeu to" nay trd t h a n h v a t can ddi vdi sii nghiep p h a t t r i l n kinh t e va giam nghdo d Viet N a m .
Xet v l md'i quan he giiia va'n de lao ddng vdi viec lam va t a n g trudng bao h a m d Vidt N a m la ty le tha't nghidp tha'p k i t hpp ciing vdi ty le t h a m gia liic lUdng lao ddng cao, ty le t h i l u viec l a m t a n g n h a n h va t r i n h dp lao ddng tha'p h a m y r a n g t r i n h dp p h a t trien cua n i n kinh te Viet N a m cdn tha'p, he thdng an sinh xa hdi chUa dam bao dUdc cude sd'ng tdi thidu cho nhiing lao dpng khdng cd viec lam, do vay nhUng ngUdi nay khdng thd chiu canh t h a t nghiep dai b a n , hp bude phai chap n h a n lam mdt so cdng viec trong k h u viic phi ehinh thUe vdi t h u n h a p tha'p, ba'p benh, hoac thdi gian lam vide khdng phii hpp d l nudi song b a n t h a n va gia dinh. HPn the niia, n a n g sua't lao dpng ciia lao ddng Viet N a m cdn ra't tha'p, mac du cd su t a n g lUdng d a n h nghia va thiic t e cua ngudi lad ddng nhUng dd khdng phai la vi t a n g n a n g sua't lao ddng, m a xua't phat t u viec phai lam viec n h i l u hdn v l thdi gian va ma't t h e m siic lUc ciing n h u cac chi phi cd hdi khac. D i l u n a y xac n h a n mdt thiic t e la kinh t l Viet N a m t a n g trudng diia t r e n md rpng quy md s a n xua't, sii dung n h i l u lao ddng hdn la p h a t trien theo chieu sau, diia t r e n t a n g n a n g sua't lao ddng. Do dd, de n a n g cao n a n g sua't lao ddng va nang lUc canh t r a n h cua n i n kinh t l , Viet N a m t a p t r u n g can n a n g cao cha't lUpng lao dpng, chuyen dich n h a n h lao ddng tU nhflng n g a n h cd n a n g sua't t h a p sang cac n g a n h cd n a n g s u a t cao; tii dam nhiem cac cdng doan cd gia tri gia t a n g tha'p sang cac cdng doan cd gia t r i gia t a n g cao va gia tang vide lam day dii, vige lam b i n vflng eho ngudi lao ddng.
Tuf nhiing p h a n tich ve t h a c h thiic cua mo h i n h t a n g trudng giam ngheo va mot sd dac diem v l thi trudng lao dpng ciia Viet N a m trong thdi gian qua, bai viet da de xua't mpt k h a i nigm hoan toan mdi dd'i vdi Viet N a m dd la t a n g trudng bao h a m m a d dd ddi hdi cae chinh sach t a n g trUdng phai d a m bao sU binh
d a n g v a su tiep c a n toi da ciia ngUdi d a n t6i cac cd hdi k i n h t e dupe t a d r a tii t a n g trudng, k e ca nhiing ngUdi yeu t h i n h a t v a nhiing ngudi bi gat r a khoi q u a t r i n h t a n g trudng n h u md h i n h t a n g t r u d n g giam nghdo da thuc hien. Thdng q u a md h i n h t a n g trudng bao h a m , Vidt N a m se cd d i l u kidn de duy tri mUc t a n g t r u d n g dn d i n h cho n e n kinh tl, ddng thdi k i l m soat dUde sU gia t a n g bat b i n h dang trong x a hdi t h d n g q u a mdt thi trUdng lao ddng h o a n thidn vdi n h i e u vi$c lam va cd hdi tiep c a n cdng b a n g cho t a t ca ngUdi dan./.
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