Du" bao gia trj kim ngach xuat - nhap khau hang hoa qua bien gi6i giu'a Viet Nam va Campuchia
• BGI BA NGHIEM*
PHAM VAN THANH"
Torn tat
Nhdm cung cdp them cong cu bd ich cho cdc nhd qudn ly trong viec du bdo gid tri kim nggch xudt khdu vd nhdp khdu, bdi vie't ndy cd gdng kiem tra sU phu hpp cua mo hinh du bdo Xdm trong viic du bdo gid tri kim ngach xudt khdu vd nhdp khdu qua Men gidi giffa hai nudc Viel Nam vd Campuchia. Kit qud nghien cffu chi ra rdng. mo hinh du bdo Xdm GM (I. 1) rdt phu hap di dff bdo gid tri kim nggch xudt khdu vd nhdp khdu qua bien gidi vdi dp chinh xdc ndm trong khodng 10%-20%.
Tif khda: xudt nhgp khdu. hdng hoa, quan he thuang mgi Viet Nam - Campuchia Summary
In order to provide useful tools for managers to forecast export and import volume, this article aims to examine the appropriateness of the grey prediction model to forecast volume of export and import across borders between Vietnam and Cambodia. The result proves that GM (1, 1) is a proper model with an accuracy of 10%-20%.
Keywords: import-export, goods. Vietnam - Cambodia trade relations GIOITHIEU
Xu the' qud'c te hda ngay nay da thuc day hoat ddng kinh doanh qud'c te'didnra manh me. Xua't khau va nhdp khau qua bien gidi la 2 hoat ddng chinh cua thffdng mai qud'c le', nd cd vai trd quan trong trong viec cai thien ddi sd'ng kinh te', thay ddi cd cd'u kinh te theo hffdng day manh cdng nghiep hda, hien dai hda da't nffdc, tie'p thu dffdc nhii'ng kinh nghiem quan ly, cdng nghe hien dai...
thuc day nen kinh te' phat trien nhanh chdng.
Nhap khd'u bo sung kip thdi nhffng mat ma't cdn doi cua nen kinh le, dam bao mot sff phat trien can dd'i 6n dinh, khai thac de'n mffc td'i da tiem nang va khd nang cua nin kinh te vao vdng quay kinh te. Nhap khau cung dam bao dau vao cho sdn xua't, tao vide lam dn dinh cho ngffdi lao ddng, tffdd cai thien va ndng cao mffc sd'ng cua nhan dan, gdp phtn ndng cao chd't Iffdng san xua't hang xua't khau, tao mdi trffdng thuan ldi cho xua't Idiau hang hod ra thl trffdng qud'c te', nhd't la nffdc nhap khau.
Hien nay, Campuchia la dd'i tdc thffdng mai thff 19 cua Viet Nam tren the gidi va xe'p thff 6 trong cac qud'c gia
trong ASEAN. Dff bao gia tri kim ngach xud't kh^u va nhdp kh^u qua bien gidi ti'ong tffdng lai cd vai trd quan trpng trong viec giup cac nha quan ly, cdc nha hoach dinh chinh sach cua Viet Nam va Campuchia.
Trong bdi vie't nay nhdm lac gia cd' gang sff dung md hinh du' bao Xam GM (1, 1) de xem xel tinh dung dan, phu hdp cua md hinh dd'i vdi vide dff bao kim ngach xua't khau va nhdp kha'u hang hda qua bidn gidi giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia trong tffdng iai. Qua dd, cung cd'p bp cdng cu dff bao hffu ich phuc vu cdc nha quan ly, hoach dmh chinh sach!
CO sd LY THUYET VA MO HINH NGHIEN CUu
Ly thuyd't he tho'ng Xam Ly thuye't he thd'ng Xam (Grey System Theory) dffdc de xud't lan dau lien vao
• Cue Xuat nhap khau, Bo Cong Thifdng
"Trifdng Dai hpc Quang Binh
Ngdy nhdn hdi- 02/12/2019. Ngdy phdn hien: 12/12/2019; Ngdy duyel ddng 21/12/2019
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nam 1982 bdi giao sff Deng. Ly thuye't he thd'ng Xam lap trung nghidn cffu hd thd'ng thdng tin khdng chae chdn vd khdng day dii trong qua trinh ra quye't dinh.
Trong nghien cffff cua gido sff Deng vao ndm 1989, thi he thd'ng Xam dffdc dinh nghia nhff sau: "He thd'ng vdi mdt phan thdng tin dffdc bid't va mdt phan thdng tin chffa dffdc bie't dffdc gpi la he thd'ng Xdm". Mot the' manh khde cua phu'dng phdp do la cd the xay difng dffdc phffdng tnnh hdnh vi dffa tren bo dff lidu cd cd mau nhd. Chinh vi vay, ly thuye't nay da khac phuc difdc nhffng nhffdc diem vd'n cd cua cdc phUdng phap truyen thd'ng.
Qua hdn 30 nam xdy dffng vd phat trien, ly thuye't he thd'ng Xam da tao dffdc vi the va dffdc xem nhff la mot nganh khoa hpc mdi noi vdi cd'u true ly thuye't ra't ridng, bao gom cac bd phdn, nhff: he thd'ng phan tich, quan he Xam;
md hinh dff bdo Xam; md hinh dieu khien Xam.
Hi6n nay. md hinh dff bao Xdm nhan dffdc sff quan tam cua nhieu nha nghien cffu. Nguygn Phffdc Hai va Du Thd'ng Nha't (2014) dd sff dung md hinh dff bdo Xdm de danh gia ke't qua xe'p hang va dif bao kd't qua hpc tap cua hpc sinh.
Nam 2014, Wang vd Phandd sff dung md hinh dff bao Xam de dff bao Iffdng hang hda iffu thdng tai cdng Cao Hiing (Dai Loan). Hsu va cpng sff sff dung md hinh dff bdo Xam dd'dff bao nhu cau lieu thu dien tai Dai Loan. Lu va cdng sif sff dung md hinh dff bao Xam dd' dff bao Iffdng md td va lu'dng CO, thai ra tai Dai Loan... Ta'tca nhffng nghien cffu tren chu yeu lap trung vao cac lmh vu'c, nhff: giao due, san xua'l, ndng Iffdng, mdi trffdng, ma chffa cd mdt nghien cffu nao ffng dung, md hinh dff bdo Xam vdo viec du' bdo gid tri kim ngach xua'l khau va nhdp khau qua bien gidi lai mdt nu'dc cu the.
M6 hinh diT bao iCM (1, 1) Day Id mdt trong nhffng md hinh dff bao quan trong trong he thd'ng md hinh dif bao Xam. Vi md hinh ndy de dang tinh loan vd do chinh xac cao, nen nd dffdc dp dung rdng rdi trong nhieu linh vu'c, nhff: kinh le', qudn ly, van tai...
Theo Kayacan va cdng sff (2010), md hinh GM (1, 1) dffdc thie't lap dffa tren phffdng trinh vi phan bac nha't. Cdc bffdc tinh todn cu the cua md hinh dff bdo GM (1,1) dffdc the hien chi tie't nhff sau:
Budc 1: Gia sff rang X"" la chudi dff lieu khdng am
X"" = (x""(l),x'<»(2),...x'»),n>4, (1) vdi n la chilu dai chu5i dff lieu.
Budc 2; Vdi dif lidu ban dau da cho san, trffdc khi sff dung md hinh dif bao Xam GM (1,1), can kiem tra xem chudi dff heu tren da dap ffng yeu cau bat budc theo cdng thffc sau:
,., x""(i-l)
^i^=^^,i>2,Z,...,n (2) Neu td't cd cdc gid tri deu nam trong khoang o(i) = ( e ' ^ , e ^ j gia trj thi cd the dp dung md hinh dff b d o X a m G M d , 1).
Budc 3; Tinh cdc gid tri bang each sff dung phffdng phap cdng tich luy:
X'" = (x"'(l), x"'(2),... x'"(n)), n > 4, (3) vdix<"(k) = t x""(i), k = 2, 3, .„ n va x'"(l) = x*">(l)
Budc 4: Thie't lap phffdng trinh cua md hinh dff bdo X a m G M ( l , 1):
dx""(k)
— ^ + a x ' " ( k ) = b (4) Budc 5: Tinh gid trj cdc tham so' a va b.
Gid tri tham so' a vd b cua md hinh dff bao Xdm GM (I, J) dffdc tinh dffa tren phffdng phap binh phffdng td'i thieu, cu the nhu sau:
P = [-g-J=(B"^B)-'BTY Trong dd:
" •0.5x(x'"(2) + x">(l))
•0.5x(x"'(3) + x">(2)) B
(5)
!'
1 -0.5x(x"'(n) + x'"(n-l)) 1
,Y = x""(2) x"'i(3) x""(n)
(6)
Budc 6: Thiet Idp cdng thffc de tinh cdc gia tri dff bdo cua md hinh:
x("(k+l)= x'"' '^ + |-,k=l,2,3.,.n,n+l,... (7) Budc 7: Sau dd tinh du'dc cdc gia tri dff bdo cua md hinh dff bdo Xdm GM (1, I) dffa tren cdng thffc sau;
x'"'(k+l)= x"'(k+I)- x'"(k), k = l , 2 , . . . (8) Hodc:
x""(k+l) = [x™(I)-|-]e-"^(l-e^) (9) Danh gia dO chinh xac
Nghidn cffu ndy sff dung chi sd' MAPE (Means Absolute Percentage Error) de ddnh gid dp chinh xac cua mdhinh dff bdo Xam. Chisd'MAPEdffdc tinh todn bdi cdng thffc sau:
MAPE: 1 11 v ' "'(k)-x""(k)
x""(k) I x 100% (10) Trong do. x""(k): la gid tri thffc te d thdi diem k x''"(k): la gia tri dff bao d thdi diem k
Chi so'MAPE du'dc chia Ihanh 4 nhdm nhu'Bang 1.
KET QUA NGHIEN CQu
Tmh trang xuS't - nhSp khau Viet Nam - Campuchia hien nay
Bang 2 cho Iha'y, 8 thang dau nam 2019, long kim ngach xua'l - nhdp khd'u hang hda qua bidn gidi giffa
29
MAPE Mlic danh gia
BANG 1: BANG DANH GIA MAPE 10%
Xuifl sac 10%-20%
Tot
20%-50%
Cha.'p nhan difdc
>50%
Khong phli hdp N g u o n : So lieu nghien ci/u BANG 2: GlA TRI KM tiGACH XGAT - NHAP KHAU CtlA VIET NAM, THAI
LAN VA TRUNG QUOC VCil CAMPUCHIA
Dan VI. Tneu USD
Danh muc Thifdng mai Viet Nam v3i CPC Thifdng mat Thai Lan v6i CPC Thifdng mai Trung Quoc vdl CPC
Kim ngach XNK 8 thang d i u nam 2019 XuKt khau
2 866 4 535 5-124
NhSp khiu 683 1.516 995
T^ngXNK 3 549 6.051 6.119 I So lieu Ihong ke J\et I i a m , Thai Lan, Trung Quoc
HiNH 1: GlA TR] XUAT KHAU VA NHAP KHAO QUA BIEN GlCil GICfA VIET NAM - CAMPUCHIA Ttf NAM 2009 -2018 5.000 00
4,500.00 4.000-00 3,500-00 3,000-00 2,500-00 2,000 00 1,500.00 1,000 00 500 00 0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201S 201
— — X u l l k h ^ ——Nhap thiu —XNK Nguon Tong c
BANG 3; KET QUA DCf BAG VA SAI SO CUA MO HINH D^ B A Q XAM Nam
2014 2Q16 2017 201S
\ B Xua't khiu 1.166,5
1563 2 519,8 2.929 2 685,4 2 200.6 3-741, anh giit
GM (1,1) 1 166,5 2.168,89 2 273,78 2.383,7 2.498,95 2.619,77 2.879,23 3.018,45 3,164,3' no hinh
Sais6
0,00 38,765 9,764 18,617 14,828 2,444 13,833 30,839 8,910 15,416
"1 15342
"] Tot Hgu6n
Nhap GM kh^u 1 (1,1)
197,1 197,1 276,6 429,6 542,6 503,6 623,4 955,6 725,8 1029,6 963,1
^et qua 387,19 439,75 499,43 567,22 644,21 731,64 830,95 943,73 1071,82
iu- bao c Saisd n'"i(k)
0,00 39,983 2,362 7,956
23,436 14,487 8,34 12,382 Tot a nhom nghien cu'u Viet Nam - Campuchia dat 3.549 meu USD, tang
; 'iVrso vdi cung ky nam 2018. Trong d6 Vtet Nam xutft khiu hang hoa sang Campuchta 2.866 tneu USD, fins 18 3% va Campuchia xua't khin hang hoa sang V , l Nam da, 683 ttteu USD, tang 3,2% so vOt cung k)' nam 2018.
Qua so lieu thfing ke kim ngach xuat - nhap kha'u qua bien gidi ctia hai quan Thai Lan va Trung Quo'c vdi Campuchia, thi kim ngach xuift - nhap khtu qua mei^
gidi gitfa Viet Nam vdi Campuchia cm bang 58,66% kim ngach xuat - nhap kha'u cua Thai Lan vdi Campuchia va bang 58% kim ngach xua't - nhap khau cua Trung Quoc vdi Campuchia.__
Theo thS'ng k6 sd bo cua Tong cue HSi quan, trong nam 2018 hoat dong thtfong mai giffa VietNam - Campuchia diln ra soi ddng, kim ngach xuat - n h y khau qua bten gidi giffa hai ntfdc 4at toe dS tang tnidng cao. T6ng ttt giS xuat - nhap kha'u giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia dat 4.704 ty USD, fing 23,8% so ydt nam 2017. Trong do, tri gia xua't khau hang hda ttf Viet Nam sang Campuchia dat 3.741 ty USD, tang gin 35% va tn gia nhgp khiu hang hda cd xua't xil ttf qudc gia nay dat 963 tri6u USD, giam 6,5%
so vdi nam trtfdc. Trong nam qua, Viet Nam chu yeu xuS't khiu jat th6p cac loai, hang det may va xang diu cac loai... sang Campuchia. Trong khi dd, lai tfa chudng nhap khiu hat dieu, cao su, | 6 v& san phim tff gS. cd xua't xil ttt qud'c gia nay.
Theo Tdng cue Hai quan,_ gia tri kim ngach xuat khiu va nhSp khau hang hda va t6ngkim ngach xuS't- nhapIshluqua bien gidi giOa hai ntfdc dtfOc bieu diSn d Hinh va ddn vi tinh 14 ttign USD.
Nhin chung, gia tri kim ngach nhSp khiu qua bien gidi ciia Viet Nam ttt Campuchia tang deu qua cac nam, ttt nam 2009 de'n nam 2015 Rieng giai doan 2016-2018, co stf bie'n dong va cd dau hi6u chffng lai. Cu the, vao nam 2015, gia tri kim ngach nhap khiu cua Viet Nam sang Campuchia dat 9.556 trieu USD trong khi nam 2016 la 7.258 trieu USD, giam triSu 229,8 trieu USD va tang vao nam ke tie'p dat 1.029,6 trieu USD. Dd'i vdi gia tti kim ngach xuat khau qua bien gidi, thi cd sil bie'n ddng manh ttong giai doan 2009-2018.
Cu the: gia tti xuit khau tang manh ttf 1.166,50 tri6u USD vao nam 2009 lgn 2.934 ttieu USD vao nam 2013 va cd dau higu giam manh ttf 2.685,4 tridu USD nam 2014 xud'ng 2.200,6 tneu USD vao nam 2016. De'n nam 2017, gia tti kim ngach xua't khiu mdi tang trd lai.
Ke't qua dti bao gia tri xua't kha'u va nhap kh^u hang hda
Dtfa vao thuat toan mo hinh dtf bao Xam, chung ta thiet ISp dtfdc phucing trinh
30
ham di^ bao gia tri xuat khau va nhap khau hang hoa qua bien gidi tu-cJng iJng giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia nhif sau:
x^"(k) XK = 44857,57 x e'"-"^^^«-" - 43691,07
vd
x"'(k) NK = 2852,72 x e''-"-''^'-'i 2655,62
Toan bo ket qua du" bao gia tri kim ngach xuat khau, nhap khau qua bien gidi giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia va sai so cua m6 hinh du" bao Xam difcfc the hien chi tiet tai Bang 3.
Ket qua nghien ciJu d Bang 3 cho thay rang, gia tri sai so' cda mo hinh dy bao GM (1,1) do'i vdi kim ngach xuat khau va nh|p khau qua bien gidi giffa Vi6t Nam va Campuchia nam trong khoang 10%-20% tffdng ffng vdi mffc danh gia cua mo hinh dff bao la tot.
Cu the la: Gia tri MAPE cua kim ngach xuat khau la 15,342% va gia tri kim ngach nhap khau la 12,382%. Dieu nay chffng mmh rang, mo hinh dff bao Xam GM (1, 1) dffdc khuye'n nghi sif dung de dff bao gia tri tffdng lai cua kim ngach xuat khau va nhap khau. Gia tri dif bao kim ngach xuS't khau va nhSp khau tff nam 2019 den 2021 du'dc the hien trong Bang 4.
Ket qua dff bao d Bang 4 cho th^'y, gia tri kim ngach xuat khau va nhap khCu giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia tiep tuc tang trong nhffng nam tiep theo. Cu
BANG 4 : GlA TRI DtT BAO KIM NGACH XGAT KHAG VA N H A P KHAG CGA ViET NAM VA CAMPGCHIA GIAI DOAN 2 0 1 9 - 2 0 2 1
BVT: Trieu USD Nam
2019 2020 2021
XuS't khiu 3.317,39 3 477,79 3.645,94
Nhapkh^u 1.217,29 1,382,5]
3.645,94
the gia tri kim ngach xuat khau va nhap khau tffcfng ffng cua VietNam va Campuchia se dat md'c 3.645,94 trieu USD va 3.645,94 trieu USD vao nam 2021. Day la nguon thong tin quan trong cho cac nha quan !y trong viec dinh hu'dng va hoach dinh chinh sach nham day manh kim ngach xua't - nhSp khau qua bien gidi giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia thdi gian sap tdi.
KET LUAN
Nghien cffu nay khong nhffng tim ra cong cu phiJ hdp de dff bao gia tri kim ngach xua't khau va nhap khau qua bi6n gidi giffa Viet Nam va Campuchia trong nhffng nam tie'p theo vdi dd chinh xac cua mo hinh dff bao nam trong khoang l0%-20%, ma cdn cung cap thong tin bd ich cho cac nha quan ly cd cd sd hoach dinh chie'n Iffdc phat trien lau dai dd'i vdi ITnh VLfc nay.
Trong cac nghien cffu tie'p theo, nhdm tac gia tiep tuc ap dung cac phffdng phap hien dai, nhif: cai tie'n mo hinh dff bao Xam, mo hinh dff bao Md... nham lam tang do chinh xac trong dff bao gia tri kim ngach xua't khau va nhap khau qua bien gidi giffa Vidt Nam va Campuchia.•
TAI L i g u THAM KHAO
1. Tdng cue Hdi quan (2009-2019). Sdlieu xudl - nhgp khdu cdc ndm. tff 2009 de'n 2019 2. Nguydn Phffdc Hai, Dff Tho'ng Nhat (2014). Danh gia ke't qua xe'p hang va dif bao ket qua hoc tap cua hgc sinh dya tren phan tich quan h6 Xam va md hinh Xam, Tgp chi Khoa hoc TrUdng Dgi hoc Cdn Tha. Phan C: Khoa hgc Xa hdi, Nhan van va Giao due, 43-50
3. Nguyen Phffdc Hai, Tian-Wei Sheu, Masatake Nagai (2015). Dff bao ke't qua hgc tap cua hpc sinh dffa tren sy ket hdp phffdng phap gan dung Taylor va cac mo hinh Xam, Tap chi Khoa hoc Dai hoc Qudc gia Hd Nov. Nghien cffu Gido due. Tap 31(2), 70-83
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