NGHIEN c u u
Phuong phap luSn nghien ciiu hanh vi liia chon phuong thuc v ^ tai hanh khaeh lien tinh: nghidn cmi hanh trinh Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh — Thanh phd Ha Noi
NCS. ThS. LeNgd Ngpc Thu Hoc vien Hang lch6ng Vi6t Nam
Tdm tdt: Trong nghidn cflu khoa hgc, phuong phdp nghidn cflu (PPNC) ddng vai trd bdt sue quan trong. Ddi vdi de ldi nghidn cim ve lya chgn phuong thflc vdn tdi (PTVT) hdnh khdch ndi chung vd lya chpn PTVT hdnh khdch lien tinh ndi rieng, vide lya ehpn PPNC rdt quan trpng d^ lam sao ed the dam bdo Idm sdng td dupe mdi quan hd gifla hdnh vi di Iai cua hdnh khdch va tae ddng cua cdc chinh sdch kinh td ddn hdnh vi di lai nay. Chinh vi vdy, bdi vidt lien hdnh thyc fu^n phuong phdp nghidn cflu hdnh vi lua ehpn F*TVT hdnh khdch lidn tinh. nghidn euu hdnh trinh Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh — Thdnh phd Hd Npi.
Td khod: phuong phap ngfudn cflu, hanh vi lua chgn, phuemg thue vdn ldi hanh khdch lidn linh.
1. Nghien ciiu hanh vi lua chon phuong thuc van tai hanh khaeh lien tinh'tai Viet Nam
V&n tdi hdnh khdch Bde — Nam ey th^ la van tdi hdnh khaeh tuyen Tp.HCM — Tp.HN Id mdt trong nhflng hdnh trinh cd khd'l lupng vdn ehuydn hanh khdch ldn nhdt trong ed nude.Vdi ba PTVT chinh Id mdy bay, tau Ifla, d td, nhu cdu di lai cua hanh khdch phdn ndo dupe ddp irng. Tuy nhidn, ty tipng hanh khdch lya chgn mdy bay, tdu Ifla, d td d nhiing mua eao dilm vd thdp didm tiong nam kha ehdnh l^eh, ddn ddn Unh trgng "chdy ve", hdt ve hoae vd khdng bdn dupc d mdt sd PTVT. Vdn dd ndy khdng ehl gdy dnh hudng ddn loi ich cfla hanh khdch (hi ede nhd cung cdp djeh vy tang gid, dp gid vdn chuydn,...), dnh hudng ddn hogt ddng efla cdc nhd cung cap djch vy van tdi hdnh khdch (chdy ve, e ve, ...) md cdn dnh hudng den cdng tde quy hoach, ddu tu ndng cdp eo sd vdt chdt phyc vy van tdi hanh khdch cua co quan chflc trdch nha nude. Thyc td hdn da cho thdy viec nghidn cflu hanh vi lya chgn PTVT cfla hanh khaeh khi di ehuydn trdn tuyen Tp.HCM — Tp.HN la hdt sflc quan trpng, bdi le viec hidu biet hanh vi lya chpn PTVT cua hdnh khdch se giflp cdc nhd ehflc trach trong viec quan ly nhu edu GTVT, ndm dupc thj hidu di lai cfla banh khaeh, tu dd ed nhiing chinh sach, quy dinh mdt mat didu lidt giao Uidng tien tuydn dupe bai hda, ddu tu CO sd hg ldng dfl vd kjp thdi, mat khdc cd ede chinh sdch vd kinh td (kidm sodt gid nhidn lieu, kiem ehd Igm phdi, ...) hpp ly. Hien nay tren thd gidi da cd rdt nhidu dd ldi nghien cflu vd hdnh vi lya chon PTVT hanh khdch lien linh, tiid nhung tgi Viet Nam sd lupng edng trinh nghien cflu vd vdn d^ ndy vdn cdn hgn ehd vd so lugng vd chat lupng.
2. Phuong phap luan nghien cuv hanh vi lua chon pbicong thuc van tai hanh kl^ach lien tinA Thanh pho Ho Chi Minn - Thanh phd Ha Ndi
Bi ddm bdo ti'nh khoa hpc eho mpt ngfudn cflu, thi nghidn cflu dupc lidn hdnh thong qua 2 giai doan Id nghien ciru so bO vd nghidn cflu chinh thflc.
2.1. Ngtiien cuu s a bd
Nghidn eiiu so bO dupe thue hien dya hdn eo sd ly thuyet va nhiing ngfUdn eiiu vd md hinh hdnh vi lya ehpn PTVT hdnh khdch lidn tinh cua cdc bde tidn bdi, ddng thdi can cfl hdn didu kidn ddc thu nganh giao thdng van tdi tgi Viet Nam ndi chung va van tdi hdnh khdch lidn tinh hdnh trinh Tp. HCM - Tp. HN ndi ridng.
Kdt qud ngfiidn euu so bO cho thdy, cdc ydu td dnh hudng ddn hdnh vi lya ehpn PTVT efla hanh khdch lidn Unh hanh hinh Tp. HCM - Tp. HN bao gdm: chdt lupng dieh vu, muc dich chuydn di, nhan khdu hpe, ddc didm phuang thfle vdn tdi, sy kien cyc doan, sdn Idng chi tra. Cu the nhu sau:
- Yeu td "Chdt lupng dich vy": Manssour vd cOng sy (2014) da sfl dyng dd'n ydu Id chat lugng dich vy (sy thodi mdi, sy an todn) khi nghidn cflu hdnh vi lya chpn PTVT cfla hdnh khdch lidn tinh Igi Lybia. Vfl Trgng Tich (2006) nghidn cdu ddnh gia nang Iue egnh tianh cfla djeh vy vdn ldi hdnh khaeh dua trdn chi tidu ehdt Iuong tdng hpp (Id ehi Udu dupc hinh thdnh tfl chi lieu chdt lupng ddi vdi van ehuyin hanh khaeh Id: an todn, tde do, tien Iai vd thodi mai) trdn dudng sdt vd trdn dudng bd.
- Ydu td "Muc dich ehuydn di": Wu LiiUin vd cOng sy (2012) khi phan Ueh va dy bao hdnh vi lya chpn PTVT lidn tinh dya hdn phuong phdp phan tach thi ydu td cd dnh hudng ddn hdnh vi lya chpn phuong ti^n giao thdng la muc dich di lai. Walid MAbdelwah vd cOng sy (1992) da phdt tridn cdc md hinh phan tdch hanh vi lua ehpn phuang thuc di Igi lidn tinh d Canada da xem xet mue dich chuydn di (kinh doanh, giai tri) nhu la mdt yeu td ed anh hudng ddn viee lya chpn PTVT lidn ti'nh.
- Ydu Id "Nhan khdu hpe": St. Maryam H. va cOng
su (20f 4) cho rdng viOc lya chpn PTVT lidn Unh tiudng hpp tuydn dudng Makassar-Parepare, South Sulawesi, Indonesia cd xem xet ddn yeu td thu nhap, tudi tac, (rinh dO gido dye, nghd ngfiiep. Theo tr. Acfimad Kamo va iphan F. Radam (2004) hong ngfudn ciru cfla minh da lua chgn cac yd'u to gidi tinh, nghe nghidp, Uiu nhdp dupe can nhde xem xet kfii xac djrUi vide lya chpn PTVT.
- Ydu td "Thdi gian di lgi": Manssour A. va cOng sy (2014) cho rang hanh khdch sfl dyng phuang tidn 0 td chuyen sang sfl dyng phuong Uen mdy bay khi xem xet ddn cdc ydu td thdi gian dl ddn sdn bay, then gian chd dgi d sdn bay. Naveen Elum vd cdng sy (2012) cho rdng fianh vi cua hanh khaeh tgi Monheal hong vide lya chpn hanh trinh qud cdnh vd phuong thiic de dl du ljeh la do cdc ydu td: thdi gian di lgi, sd lan ndi ehuydn. Wu fjnlin vd cOng su (2012) cho rdng ydu td cd anh hudng ddn hdnh vi lya chpn phuong tidn giao thdng Id khodng each di lai, thOi gicin di Igi, ehi pfii di lgi khi phan tich va dy bao hdnh vi lya chpn ITVT Udn Unh.
- Ydu td "Chi phi di lai": Rolf vd ede cOng sy (2013) da nghien eiiu hanh vi di lgi lien tinh cfla hanh khaeh lii bang Florida ddn bang CaUfomia thOng qua hcii nhdm phuang Udn van tdi ehinh: Xe 0 td cd nhan va phuong tien van tdi edng eOng (bao gom xe buyt, tdu hod, may bay).. Hasan M. Al-Ahmadi (2006) dd eho rang ydu Id chi phi, cy the Id gid ve (gid ve mdy bay, gid ve tdu, ehi phi mua nfiidn lieu eho xe d td cd nhan) + phy pfu khdc (phi dd xe, phi ra/vdo cdng), ddng vai Uo quan trpng quydt dinh dd'n hanh vi lya chpn PTVT uen tinh efla hanh khaeh.
- Ydu td "Sy kidn cyc doan": Ning Xu va cdng sy (2007) da lugng hda dupe dnh hudng efla su kidn 11/9 ien hdnh vi di lai lien tinh cua hanh khdch. Jose Holguin va cdng sy (2003) cho rang su kidn cyc docin
—sy kidn 11/9— cd anh hudng ddn hdnh vi lya chpn PTVT hanh khdch lien tinh, tiong dd hai yd'u Id "thay doi" vd "cang thdng" cd dnh hudng dd'n su thay ddi Uong hdnh vi lya ehpn PTVT. Yd'u td sy kidn cue doan (hoac la sy kien dac bidt) bao gom thien tai, djeh hoa, tai ngn, khung bd, v.v. tde ddng den hdnh vi su dyng san pham/djeh vy efla khdch hdng, eu thd d day la hanh vl lya ehpn PTVT banh khdch lidn Unh.
-Ydu td "Sdn Idng chi hd": Eboli va Mazzulla (2008) da nghidn cuu sy sdn Idng chi ha cfla hanh khaeh dd'i vdi PTVT cdng cOng nhdm nang cao chat lupng dich vy cua logi hinh vdn tai nay. Ramanayya va ede cdng sy (2007) cflng da do ludng sy sdn long chi tia va chdt lupng dich vy v ^ tai cdng cdng, ddi tupng phdng vdn la nhiing nhan vidn di iam hdng ngay. Yeu td sy sdn ldng cfii trd edn dupc sfl dyng hong eae ngfiien cflu ve giao ttidng nhu giam thieu d nfiidm khdng kfu vd tidng 6n hang khdng (Fosgerau vd Bjomer, 2006), hoge eai thien didu Iddn mat dudng (Walton va cac cOng su, 2004).
Tdm lgi, tiriOng qua nghien cflu so bd tae gia da hinh Uidnh eae ydu td tac ddng ddn hdrUi vi lya chpn
PTVT hdnh khdch lidn linh tai Vidt Nam vdi hdnh trinh Tp.HCM —Tp.HN (hinh 1.1).
I "'•'•''• r
2.2. Nghien cuu chinh thuc
Nghien eiiu ehinh thue dupe thye fiidn bdng phuong phdp ngtiien ciru dinh lupng. Nghien cflu djnh luong thyc hidn thdng qua viOc khao sdt tryc tiep hanh khaeh nhdm thu thap dfl liOu khdo sdt. Ddi tupng khdo sdt la hdnh khdch dang vd da su dyng mpt tiong ba PTVT nhu van tai hang khdng (may bay), van tdi dudng tig (d td) vd van tai dudng sdt (tau lua) vdi chang hanh tiinh Tp.HCM — Tp.HN tiding vdng 12 thang qua.
a) Mau ngfudn cflu: Kieh ed mdu phy thuOc vao phuong phap phan Uch dfl lieu dupc su dyng tiong nghien cflu. Theo Green (1991) va Tabachnick &
Fidell (2007) (ddn tiieo Dinh Phi Ho (2014), hang 46) ddi vdi md hinh djnh lupng dgng md fiinh hdi quy, tfii quy mO mau dupc xae dinh theo cdng thfle: n > 50 -I- 8.k, trong dd: k la sd bidn dOc lap cfla mO fiinh va n la cd mdu.
b) Thiet ke bdng eau hdi: Bdng edu hdi dupe ttiidt kd gom 2 phdn: (t) dac didm cua ehuydn di: gdm cdc cau hdi lidn quan ddn cac ydu Id chdt lupng dich vu, muc dieh ehuydn di, efii phi di igl, thdi gian di lai, sy kien cyc doan, sdn long efii hd; (2) dac diem xa hdi hpc: gdm cac cau hdi lien quan dd'n yeu td nhan khdu hge. Tfuet kd bang hdi dupe fiinh thanh qua ba giai doan:
- Giai doan Ot: Xay dung bang eau hdi dya trdn cac ydu td tde ddng ddn hanh vi lya ebon PTVT hanh khaeh lien ti'nh bdnh hinh Tp.HCM — Tp.HN.
- Giai dogn 02: Sau khi thidt ke bang cau hdi, tidn hanh thao luan vdi eae chuydn gia kinh td — giao thdng va hue tidp phdng van sau vdi 15 hdnh khaeh di hdnh trinh Tp.HCM — Tp.HN tgi bdn xe khdch Mien Ddng, ga dudng sdt Sdi Gdn vd sdn bay qudc ndi Tan Son Nhdt theo edeh Idy mdu thudn tien de kiem tia ve hinh thflc cung nhu nOi dung cua bdng edu hdi.
- Giai dogn 03: Chinh sua vd hoan tdl bdng eau hdi trude khi trude khi tidn hdng didu ha hanh khaeh.
c) Thu tiigp du lieu: Vide tiiu Uiap dfl Udu eho nghidn euu dupc thyc hien bdng phuong phdp lay mdu phi ngdu nhien (phi xde sudt) hong do tidp can
-I Tt C H A U A -
85
NGHIEN CUU
RESEARCH
vol cde hanh khaeh bdng phuong phdp thudn tidn.
Phuang phdp thudn tidn cd nghia Id nhd nghidn cflu cd thd chpn cdc ddi tupng md hp ed thd tidp edn dupc. Uu didm ciia phuang phdp ndy la de Udp cdn ddi tupng nghidn cihi vd thudng sfl dyng khi bj gidi hgn then gian vd etu pfii.
d) Phuang phdp phan ti'ch du lidu: Sau khi tidn hdnh thu Uidp dfl Udu, cdc pfudu khdo sdt dupc xem xet va logi di nhting pfUeu khdo sdt khdng dat yeu edu.
Tidp theo Id ma hda, nhap dfl lieu va Iam sgeh dfl lidu bdng phdn mdm SPSS 22.0. Sau dd, tidn hanh phdn tich hoi quy logit da thfle vd hdnh vi lya ehpn ITVT hdnh khdch lidn tinh hdnh hinh Tp.HCM — Tp.HN bang md hinh logit da thfle cfla Ben vd Lerman, 1985 (dan theo Manssour, 2014):
Kdt qud dy kidn Id ngodi cdc ydu lO nhu dac didm nhan khdu hpc, chdt lupng djeh vy, v.v. thi ydu td sy kiOn cyc doan, sdn sdng chi trd se tde dOng ddn hdnh vi lya ehpn PTVT hdnh khdch Ildn linh tgi Viet Nam vdi hdnh hinh Tp.HCM — Tp.HN.
3. Ket luan
Dd dua ra nhflng ehinh sdch qudn ly kinh te — giao thdng cflng nhu ede cfunh sdch ddu tu co sd ha tdng GTVT phu hgp, viec thyc fiidn nghien ciiu vd tim bidu su tde dOng cua cdc ydu td (ddc didm nhdn khau hgc, sy kidn cyc doan, sdn ldng ehi hd,...) den sy lya chpn PTVT hdnh khdch lidn tinh hdnh trinh Tp. HCM — Tp.
HN mdt cdch ddy du vd chuydn sdu Id vi§e Idm het sue cdn Uiidt hidn nay tgi Vidt Nam./.
Tai lieu tham khao
1. Dinh Phi Hd (2014), Phuong phdp nghidn ciiu kinh td vd vidt ludn van Uigc si, NXB Phuong DOng.
2. Fosgerau M. vd Bjomer T.B. (2006), Joint models for noise cinnoyanee and willingness to pay for road noise reduction, Treinsportatlon Research Part B, 40, pp.t64-178.
3. Hasan M. Al-Ahmadi (2006), Development of Intercity Mode Choice Models for Saudi Arabia, vol 17, No. 1, Civil Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, pp.3 - 21.
4. Ir. Achmad Kamo vd Iphan F. Radam (2004), Analysis of intercity hansport mode choice from Banjarmasin city, ISSN 1019-1011.
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— Marie Yali (2003), Impacts of Extreme Events on Intercity Passenger Travel Behavior: The September 1 tUi Experience, pp.373-404.
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University of Calabria — Faculty of Engineering Department of Territorial Planning, pp. 107-118.
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to. Muhammad Sabir va cdc eOng sy (2010), Impact of weather on daily travel demand, Department of Spatial Economies, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netheriands.
11. Naveen Elum, Vincent Chakour va Ahmed M.
EI-Geneidy (2012), Travel Mode Choice and Transit Route Choice Behavior in Monheal.
12. Ning Xu, Josd Holguin-Veras vd Chandra Bhat (2007), On The Impacts Of September 11th On Intercity Passenger Travel Behavior And An Assessment Of The Impacts Of Inspection Time On The Airline Industry's Market Share After 9/11, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA.
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14. Rolf Moeckel, Rheti FusseU vd Rich Donnelly (2013), Mode Choice Modeling for Long-Distance Travel, The Joumal of Advanced Transportation.
t5. Tdng eye tiidng ke (2016), Thdng edo bdo chi ve Unh funh kinh td - xa hdi nam 2015, tmy cap ngay 06/01/2016, tgi trang " web https://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx7tabid=382&idmi d=2<emID=t5503.
16. Vfl Trong Tich (2006), Nang lyc egnh tranh cfla djch vy van tdi hdnh khdch hen dudng sdt vd phuong phdp ddnh gid, Dai hpe Giao Thdng Van Tdi.
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Steves (1992), Development of disaggregate mode choice models of intercity tiavel in Canada, CAN. J.
CIV. ENG, vol 19, pp.965-974.
18. Walton D., Thomas G.A. vd Cenek P.D. (2004), Self and others' willingness to pay for improvements to Uie paved road surface. Transportation Research Part A, 38, pp.483-494.
19. Wu Linlin, Wang Yang vd Ge Hulmin (2012), Analysis and Prediction of Inter-cityTraffic Mode Choice Behavior Based on Disaggregate Metiiods, Advances in information Sciences and Service Sciences(AtSS), vol 4, pp.408-415.
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