T»P CHl KHOA HQC -raUdNG D»I HOC TRk VMH. SO 29, THiNO 3 NAM 2018
^ NGHIEN Ctru CAC NHAN TO ANH HUdNG DEN QUYET DEVH QUAY TRd LAI DU LICH CUA
KHACH QUOC TE 6 THANH PHO CAN THd
FACTORS INFLUENCING REVISIT DECISION OF INTERNATIONAL TOURISTS IN CAN THO CITY
Dinh Cong Thanh^ Pham L6 Hong Nhung^
Tom tat - Muc lieu cua nghien cvtu Id xdc dfnh cdc nhdn to dnh hudng den quyet dinh quay trd lai du lich d Can Tha cua du khdch quoc te. oa lieu thu th^p Id 110 khdch du lick nude ngodi. Ket qud phdn tich hoi quy Logistic cho thay CO bon nhdn to tdc dgng tich cue din quyet dinh quay trd lai cia du khdch bao gom; (i) cam nhdn cua du khdch, (ii) cd sd ha tang du ljch, (Hi) tdi nguyen du lich va (iv) nhdn ti cdu du lich. Trong do, nhdn to cdm nhan cm. du Ididch tdc d^ng manh nhAt den quyet dinh nay. Nghiin cdu cdng de xudt nhdng gidi phap nhdm thu hut du khach quoc te tiep tuc quay trd lgi du lich Cdn Thu.
Ttt khoa: Du khdch quic ti, quyit dinh quay lai, Thanh pho Cin Thd
Abstract - This study aims to identify factors that affect the revisit decision of intemational tourists in Can Tho city. The data was collected by interviewing 110 foreign tourists. The result of binary logistic regression identifies four im- portant factors that have possitive impacts on the revisit decision including: (i) perception of intemational tourist, (ii) tourism infrastructure, (iii) tourism resources arui (iv) travel demand.
Particularly, perception of intemational tourist has the strongest effect on the revisit decision.
The study also proposes the solutions for enticing more foreign tourists to revisit Can Tho city.
''^Khoa Kinh li, TnfcJng Dai hoc Can Th(J Email: dcthanh@ctu.edu.vn
Ngay nhan bar 22/02/2018; Ngay nhSn ket qud binh duyet. 1(V3/2018; Ng^y chSp nhan dang: 29/3/2018
Keywords: International tourists, revisit deci- sion, Can Tho city.
I. Gl6l THIEU
Du lich dddc biet din nhtf rapt nganh cdng nghiep khdng khoi, vijfa mang den nguon tiiu Idn vda ddng gdp dang k^ vao sU phat ttien kinh te xa hdi cua dat ntf6c. Theo sd lieu thing kS cua Bd Van hda, The thao va Du lich nam 2016, khach qu6e ti den Vilt Nam hdn 10 ttilu Iildt, tang 26,05% so v6i nam 2015. Cung theo bao cao tiitffJng nidn eiia Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2016 Viet Nam (WTTC) ciia Hdi ding Du lich va Lit hanh the gi6i vao thang 3/2016, nganh du lich da dong gdp trtfc tiep vao GDP la 279.287 d dong (tifdng dtidng 6,6% GDP). Nam 2015 cung la mot nam kh6i sac cho nganh du lich Viet Nam khi cd nhieu di^m den d Viet Nam dtidc thi gidi cdng nhan la di^m din hap ddn.
Theo t5 bao Telegraph cua Anh, Ha Ndi la mot ttong 16 tiianh ph6 co Sin thtic hap ddn nhit the gidi; Vtidn quoc gia Phong Nha - Ke Bang tiiudc top 7 viicin qu6c gia d Ddng Nam A du khach nSn den do GoAsian binh chon; hang Sdn Dodng thuoc quan the Phong Nha - Ke Bang vinh dii lot vao top 15 Alien diicing ttln Ttai dat do ttang Boredpanda binh chon hay vinh Ea. Long dtidc ttang web BuzzFeed ciia My binh ehon la 1 ttong 25 ^ a danh co ve dep khd tin nhit tten the gidi va cdn rii nhiiu nhflng dia diem khac nfla. Theo bao cao ciia T^ng cue Du Lich, nam 2017 la nam dSnh diem cua du lich Vidt Nam, tiiu hut gin 13 ttieu lUdt khach quoc ti, tang 28% so vdi nam 2016, TUy nMIn, mot tiiiic le dang quan tam la Itidng khach quoc tl quay trd lai Viet Nam cdn kha It. Ciing theo sd lieu bao cao ciia T^ng cue
TAP CHi KHOA HpC TRUdNG D^I HpC TRA VINH, Sd 29, THANG 3 NAM 2018
Du 14ch 2017, CO den 80% khach du lich nildc ngoai khdng quay ttd lai Vidt Nam.
Tuy Thanh pho Can Thd dtidc xem la thu phu cua vung lay Dd, ddng thdi, day ciing la mot ttong nam tiianh pho ldn ciia Viet Nam nhting Iticfng khach quoc ti din Itiu ttii tai Thanh pho Can Thd nam 2015 chi khoang 207.060 lifdl khach, giam 6% so vdi nam 2014 (Sd Van hda, The tiiao va Du Uch Thanh pho Can Thd, 2015).
Nganh du lich Thanh pho Can Thd la mdt bd phdn cua nganh du lich Vilt Nam. De thtic hien muc tidu ddn hdn 350 ngan Itidt khach quoc ti den Thanh pho Can Thd tiieo dinh htidng cua Sd Van hda. The thao va Du lich vao nam 2018, cac nganh va cac bd phgn liSn quan cua Thanh pho Can Thd can phai cd sti nd Itic phan dau rat ldn.
Trong do, d^ cd th^ gi^ quyet van de sut giara Itidng khach qu6c ti din Thanh pho Can Thd tiidi gian qua, tiitic hien muc tieu tiiu hut khach du lich qu6e ti vao nam 2018, viec nghien ctiu cac nhdn t6 kih hudng din quyet tfinh quay ttd 1^
du Uch ciia du khach la rat can titiit. Bdi nghiin ctiu khdng chi cung cap nguon tti lilu lam cd sd cho cac sd, ban, nganh ttong viec hoach dinh chien Itidc phat trien du lich ciia Thanh phi C ^ Thd ma cdn giup cac chu till, ddn vi kinh doanh du lich hilu hdn vi du khach qu6c te di tti do CO nhting ki hoach Idnh doanh hilu qua hdn.
n. TONG QUAN NGHlfiN Cl?U Li thuyet hanh ddng hdp U (Theory of Rea- soned Action - TRA), dtidc de xuat bdi Ajzen [1], cho rang y ^nh sii dung san pham/dich vu la yiu Id quyet ^nh din hanh vi cua khach hang.
Li thuyet TRA chi ra y dinh cua con ngrfdi chiu sti tac ddng bdi: (i) yeu t6 niim tin, thai dd cua ca nhan, (ii) chuan mtic chu quan va (iii) nh$n thtic cua ca nhan ve hanh vi tieu dung. Trong do, niem tin cua khach hang tac ddng dang ke den tiiai do cung nhti y dinh cua con ngtidi. Dong thdi, dtia tten nen tang h' thuyet TRA, Ajzen [2]
da de xuat li thuyet hanh vi dti dinh (Theory of Planned Behaviour - TPB). Ajzen cho rang hanh vi con ngtidi cd tiie dtidc dti doan va giai thich bdi cac xu htidng thtic hien hanh vi do thdng qua cac nhan to anh htidng din y dinh sti dung san ph&n/dich vu ciia khach hang.
Giai thich ro hdn hanh vi sii dung san p h ^ d i c h vu, Philip Kotier [3] cho rang quyit
dinh cua khach hang xu4t phat tii nhan thtic nhu cau din tim kiem thong tin san pham/dich vu, danh gia cac Itia chon, quyet dinh sil dung san ph&n/dich vu va quan ttong la danh gia sti hai long cung nhti dti ifinh tieu dung ttong ttidng lai.
Nhti vay, van dung cac li thuyet nay cd thi giai thich cho y dinh cua khach hang cd tiip tuc sti dung dich vu du lich ttong tiidng lai hay khdng.
Kosnan & Ismail [4], tren cd sd van dung If tiiuyel TRA, TPB ctia Ajzen [1], [2] va li thuyet hanh vi lieu dung cua Philip Kotier [3], cho rang de thu hut khach du lich, dac Met la khach ngoai quoc quay ttd lal mdt diem din, chung ta can quan tam den ba nhan to: (i) nhdm nhan to hin quan den cau; (ii) nhdm nhan to lien quan den cung va (iii) nhdm cac nhan to can ttd khac.
Nhdm nhdn t6 lien quan den cdu: Theo Bashagi & Muchapondwa [5], Kosnan & IsmaH [4], nhdn t6 nay xuit phat tii phia du khach, gan lien vdi dac diim nhdn khiu hgc cua du khach nhti thu nhap ^a trinh do van hda. Bdn canh dd, tiieo Kosnan & Ismail [4], can du lich cdn liln quan den thdi gian roi cua du khach, ttong khi dd sti hai long cua du khach cung anh htidng nhieu din quyet dinh quay ttd lai mdt dia diem du lich.
Tii phan ti'ch tten, nghien ctiu de xuat gia thuyet:
HI; ddp ling dupc cdc nhdn to thuoc nhom cau du lich si tdp dgng den viec quay trd lgi diem den ctia du khdch.
Nhdm nhan to Hen quan den cung; Nhdm nhan to nay gan lien vdi cae yeu td thugc ve ngudn Itic cua dia phtidng nhti nguon nhan Itic phuc vu cho du lich [4], [6], nguon tai nguyen du Uch cua ^ a phtidng (yiu to canh quan, sti da dang diem du lich, cac di san van hda) [6]. Ciing theo Yang &
cdng sti [6], cung du iich cdn lien quan den he thdng nha hang, khach san va cd sd ha tang vien thdng eua diem din. Bdi ddy dttdc xem la nin tang de phat trien du lich eua mot ^ a phtidng. T&
phan tich tten, nghien ctiu lunh Ihanh gia thuyet:
H2: dia phUdng ddp dng duac cdc nhdn to thugc nhom cung du lich si tdc dong den quyet dinh quay trd lai diem den cua du khdch.
Nhom cac nhan to can ttd khac: Ngoai cac nhan to lien quan din cung va ciu, thtic tien cac nghien ctiu cung ciu ra mdt sd yeu td can ttd quyet dinh <B du Uch cua du khach. Theo dd, Salleh & Othman [7] chi ra khoang each dia 11 gifla ndi cti tni cua du khach va ndi den du lich
Tfl,P CHl KHOA H p c TRUdNG D*! HpC TRA VINR s 6
19, THANG 3 NAM 2018 KINHTfe-XAHOl
CO tac ddng den viec Itia chgn dia ^em. Bdi le, dieu nay anh htidng den chi phi va tiibi gian di chuyin ciia du khach. Ben canh dd, nghien ctiu cua Khadaroo & Seetanah [8], Kosnan & Ismail [4] va Huang [9] cung cho tiiay, du khach di du lich d cac qu6c gia con gap kho khan vi cae chinh sach quy dinh xuat nhSp canh, mdi tttidng dilm den, tinh hinh an ninh, ngdn ngfl giao tiep va dac biet la vin de ve sinh y tl. Ngoai ra, Bashagi &
Much^wndwa [5] cung ch! ra cac yeu to tiiam hoa thien nhien hoac nhan tao (nhti dong dat, song thin, lu lut, bao dong, chien ttanh,...) cd till lam cho du khach co tam If bit an, lo sd, dieu nay dl gay ra sti can ttd ldn doi vdi quylt dinh di du lich ciia du khach. Tti phan tich tten, nghien ctiu di xuit gia thuyet:
H3: cdc nhdn tS rao cdn dnh hudng tieu cue ddn quyet dinh quay trd lgi cua du khdch.
Nhti vay, dtia tten cd sd Itidc khao cac nghien ctiu Uen quan, lac gia de xuat md hinh nghien ctiu bao gom ba nhdm nhan t6 anh htidng din y dinh quay trd lai Thanh pho Can Thd du Uch cua du khach la: (i) nhdm nhan td cau du Uch;
(u) nhom nhdn to cung du Uch va (iii) nhdm cac nhan 16 can ttd:
Hinh 1: Md Wnh nghien ctiu de xuit.
(Nguon: Ket qud tit ctf sd li thuyet vd lU(fc khdo cdc nghiSn cdu liin quan)
in. NOI DUNG NGHlfiN CLfU A. Phuong phdp nghiin cdu
- Phtfdng phap thu thap s6 lieu + So Ueu tiiti cap: Cac tiidng tin, s6 Ueu ve tinh Mnh du Uch Thanh pho Can Thd dtidc tiiu thap til Niln giara Thong kl Thanh pho Cin Thd, Sd Van hda. The tiiao va Du lich Can Thd va cac tiidng tin Itidc khao tii cac tap chi Uen quan.
+ So Ulu sd cap: Dtidc thu thap gom 110 quan sat bang phtidng phap chpn mau thuan tien thdng qua phong van tnic tiep cae du khach quoc te din du Uch d Thanh pho Can Thd. Theo U tiiuyet, c3 mlu toi tiiieu cua phtidng phap phan tich nhdn ti phai tti 4-5 lan so quan sat [10]. Do so bien do Itidng Idiai niem cac nhSn to anh htidng den quyet dinh quay trd lai cua du khach ttong nghien cihi nay la 20 nSn chung ta cin toi thieu 100 quan sat (20*5=100 quan sat). Viec phdng van diidc tiin hanh ttt tiiang 7/2017 den tiiang 10/2017.
Kit qua, ehung tdi thu dtidc 118 quan sat. Thy nhien, do tam quan sat thu ve cd gia tti khuyet ndn nghien ctiu da sti dung 110 quan sat Dia ban phdng vin tap tnmg d nhihig ^ a diem du lich ttong dilm, ndi tap trung phan Idn du khach quoc ti ^ n Thanh phd Cin Thd nhti Ben Ninh Kiiu, Khu Du lich My Khanh, Chd Ndi Cai Rang.
- Phtfdng phap phSn tich
Nghidn ctiu sti dung phtidng phap phdn tidi dinh Itidng thdng qua: (i) kiem dinh Cronbach's alpha dl Idem dinh dp tin cay va danh gia chat Itidng cua tiiang do; (U) phan tich nhan id kham pha (Exploratory Factor Analysis - EFA) d^ xac dinh cac nhdm nhdn to anh htidng din quyet dinh quay ttd lai Thanh ph6 Can Thd du Iich cua khadi quoc te. (ui) phSn tich h6i quy nhi phan (Binary logistic regression analysis) dl kilm dinh sti tac ddng cua cac nhan to den quylt djnh quay lai cua du khach. Phtidng ttinh hoi quy nhi phan dtidc vilt dtidi dang:
LoQe- Bo + BiXi + B2X2+
'P(Y = 0) BsX3+--+BnXn
Trong do, biln phu thudc la quyet dinh quay lai cua du khach. Bien phu tiiudc dtidc do Itidng bang hai gia tii: 0 la du khach quylt dinh khdng quay lai va 1 la du khach quylt ^nh se quay lai.
Biln ddc ISp X la cac nhdm nhan 16 nit ra tit phdn tt'ch nhSn to kham pha.
B. Ket qua vd thdo lugn
Thdng tin chung v^ doi ttidng dtfdc phong van
Ket qua khao sat 110 khach du lich quoc ti 5 Thanh pho Can Thd cho tiiay du khach chu ylu la nam (chilm 54,5%). Da phan du khach den tit cic qudc gia d chau Au, chiem den 60,9% (chu yeu den tti Dtic), chau Uc chilm 20% va thap nhat la
TAP CHt KHOA HOC TRUdNG D4I HpC TRA VINH, s 6 29, THANG 3 NAM 2018
Bang 1: Xay dting tiiang do cho bien nghidn cihi ttong md hinh
ISn bi^n
Nhom nhan t6 cau du ljch
Nhom nhan (6 cung du Ijdi
Nhom nhSn 10 rao can
N9I dung - Thu nh^p du kh^ch - Trinh d§
- Sil ohko roi
- Su hai Ifing chung cua chuyin di - Nhan vien ljch sil, chuySn nghifp - NgUtli dSn than thien. men khfch - Canh quan d^p, h i p dia - Su da dang cic diem den - £>i san van h6a, ljch si d|a phiidng - Am thuc ciia d|a phUdng - H^ th6ng viSn thSng - He thong nhi h ^ g , khich s?n - He thong c£c khu vui chdi. giai tri - Quy d|nh. chfnh sach xu^l nhap canh - Moi trufjng fl di^m den - An ninh d di^m din - Su an toin khi di du hch - Ve sinh y ti - Khoang c£cli d)a li - Rao can ng6n ngQ
Thang do
Likert l-S
Likert l-S
Likert 1-5
Trich dan
Bashagi & Muchapondwa [3];
Kosnan &. Ismail [3]
Yang & c^ng sU [12], Kosnan & Ismail [8]
Khadaroo & Seetanah [1], Salleh & Othman [11], Bashagi & Mudiapondwa [3], Kosnan & Ismail [S], Huang, [6]
(Nguon; Ket qud tit c0 sd li thuyet vd luac khdo cdc nghien cdu lien quan)
chau A (chiem 7,3%). Diiu nay cung hoan toan phu hdp. Bdi Ie, theo th6ng ke eiia Sd Van hda, Thi tiiao va Du lich Can Thd, chSu Au la tiii tnidng du Uch ldn nhit cua Thanh ph6 Cin Thd thdi gian qua. Them vao dd, gan day Viet Nam ban hanh ehinh sach miln thi thtic cho mdt s6 quoc gia nen hoat ddng du lich cung ttd nen dl dang hdn. Bang 2 thi hien thdng tin du khach dtidc dieu tta.
Kit qua khac sat cdn cho thiy, du khach chu yiu cd dd tudi tii 25 - 36, chiem den 49,1% ttong tdng s6 quan sat va thip nhit la du khach ttong ^ mdi tten 60 (chiim 4,5%). Thu nhap tirmg binh ctia khach chu yeu tii 1.500 - 2.500 USD/thang (chilm din 48,2%). Ket qua diiu tta cung cho thiy cd din 82,7% du khach dtidc phong van cho rang ho thtidng di du lich vao cac Id nghi. Vi khi ay, ho se co thdi gian nhieu hdn de di du Iich d itiiflng quic gia khac nhau. Phin ldn du khach qu6c tl thtidng di du lich cung ban be hoac dong nghiep (chiem 35,5%), ngtidi yeu (chiem 32,7%) va di cung gia cElnh (chilm 21,8%).
Trong tdng so 110 du khach dtidc phdng vin, cd den 91,8% la lln dau tien din Thanh ph6 Cin Thd, chi s6 ft du khach den til lln hai ttd di
(chiim 8,2%). Du khach cd thdi gian Itiu tni d Thanh pho Can Thd chu yeu tif 1 - 2 ngay (chilm din 91,9% khach qu6c te din Cin Thd). Hinh thtic du lich dtidc phin Idn du khach Itia chon la di tti do (chiem 50,9%) va mua tour tton gdi (chiim 24,5%).
Cac nhan to anh htidng din quyit dinh quay lai cua du Idiach
* Kilm dinh dd tin cay cua thang do Kit qua kilm diitii Cronbach's Alpha cho thiy, hau hit thang do cac nhan to anh htidng din quylt dinh quay ttd lai cua du khach dat dtidc do tin e3y tot do he so Cronbach's Alpha ldn hdn 0,60 va he s6 ttidng quan biin tdng (item-total correlation) cua cac biin diu ldn hdn 0,3 [11]. TUy nhien, biln
"Trinh dd" do Itidng khai luem ciu du lich; biln
"Di san van hda, lich sti dia phtidng" do Itidng khai niem cung du Uch; biln "Khoang each dia II" va "Rao can ngdn ngfl" do Itidng cho khai niem rao can cd hd so ttidng quan biln tdng nhd hdn 0,3 nen 04 bdn biln nay bi loai ra khdi md hinh. Nhti vdy, md hinh cd 16 bien do Itidng cho thang do cac nhdn td anh htidng din quylt dinh quay ttd lai Thanh pho Cin Thd du Iich cua du khach, cu thi nhti Bang 2.
T4P CHf KHOA HOC TRUONG DAI HOC TRA VINH S6 29, TOANG 3 NAM 2C
KINH Tt-XA HOl
Bang 2: Thong tin du khach
Chi USu Gidl ti'nh:
- Na TliS- - Du6i 25 tu6i - 25 ni6i -
- 37 tu5i - 48tu6i - 49 tu& - 60 tu6i - Trfn 60 tuoi T h u nh^p ( U S D / t h ^ ) - Du6i 1.500 -TO 1.500-.dudi 2.500 - TO 2.500 - dudi 4.500 - TrSn 4 500 ChSu Inc:
- Chau Au - ChSu d c - ChSu MS - Chfiu A Th<4 d i l m dt du Udi:
- K i n g h i - Cu6i tuin - K h d c NgirM d ^ g h a n h : - Ban bfe. dong nghiap - Nguai ySu - Ciing gia ^ n h - Khic
S8 li'<(ng du khkcb
60 50
i s 54
16
n
5
22 53 20 IS
67 22 13 8
91 5 14
39 36 24 11
•n trong {%)
54,5 45,5
16,4 49.1
14,5
15,5 4 ^
20.0 4S,2 18,2 13.6
60.9 20,0 II.S 7.3
82,7 4.5 12.8
35.5 32.7 21,8 10,0
(Nguon: Ket qud xii li tit so lieu dieu tra 110 du khdch)
* Phan ti'ch nhan td kham pha
Kiem dfinh Cronbach's Alpha cho tiiay, md hinh cd 16 bien do Itidng cho thang do cac nhSn td anh htidng den quyet dKnh quay ttd lai Thanh phd Cin Thd du lich. Do dd, nghien ctiu tilp ftic thtic hidn phSn ti'ch EFA. Phan tfch EFA lan dau cho thiy kit qua dam bao dtidc cac tieu chuan, he sd KMO dat 0,771 (thoa man dieu kien 0,5<KMO<I), tdng phtidng sai trfch cua nam nhdm nhan td giai thfch dtfdc 62,94% tdng bien thien ciia khai nidm va kiem dinh Barlett co Sig la 0,000 (<0,005). Ttiy nhidn, he sd tai nMn td ciia 2 bien "Mdi tnidng d diem den" va "Am thtic cua dia phtfdng" nhd hdn 0,5. Do dd, tac gia lln Itidt loai bo hai biln nay ra khoi md hinh [12]. Sau idti thtic hidn EFA lan hai, nghien cihi
cd chide md hinh phii hdp vdi 14 bien do Itidng thang do cac nh^n td anh htidng den quyit ^ quay ttd lai cua du khach. Chi sd Egenvalue >
1,0 cho thiy ket qua nghidn ctiu trich diidc nam nhSn td, thi hidn nhti Bang 4.
Nhti vay, ttidng tti vdi cd sd If thuyet va cac nghien ctiu Uen quan, kit qua nghien ctiu cho thiy quylt dinh quay ttd lai Thanh phd Can Ibd du lich anh htidng bdi hai nhdm nhSn td: (1) nh^
td rao can va (2) nh^n td can du lich. TUy nhiSn, khac so vdi Id vong vl mat U thuyet, nhan lo cung du lich trong nghien etiu nay dtidc tach lam ba nhdm nhan td nhd. Dilu nay c6 thi la do du khach dz co nhiing Id vong, nhflng mong main rd hdn vl khia canh cung ting dich vu du lich tai Thanh phd Cin Thd. Theo dd, cac yiu td nhii ha ting phuc vu du lidi, yiu td tai nguyen du lich cfia dia phtidng va ylu td sti cam nhan ve du lich Thanh phd Can Thd se anh hudng den quyet ^nh quay ttd lai ciia du khach
* Cac n h ^ td anh htidng din quyet ^nh quay lai c^a du khach
Kit qua phan tich EFA cho tii^ cd nam nh§n td anh htidng din quylt (Unh quay ttd lal Thanh phd Cin Thd du lich cua du Idiach. Nghi6n ciJu tiep tuc sti dung phan tfch hdi quy nhi phan Logistfc dl kilm dinh lai cac nhSn td anh htidng din quylt ^ n h quay ttd lai cua du khach. Kit qua tide Itidng dtidc trinh bay nhti Bing 5.
Kit qtia md hinh hdi quy nhi phan Logistic (Bang 5) cho flily md hinh dtidc xiy dting co y nghia tiidng ke (gia Oi Sig. = 0,001 < 0,01). Chi tieu -2Log Likelihood (-2LL) la 79,062, kit qua nay cho thay do phu hdp tdng quat ciia md hinh nghidn ctiu, -2LL cang nhd thi hien do phu hdp cang cao cua md hinh nghidn ctiu do sai so m6 hinh cang ft. Ket qua nghien ctiu con cho tiiay mtic do chfnh xac cua dti bao la kha cao, vdi d Id dli doan dung cua loan bd md hinh la 87,3%.
Kit qua kiem dinh Wald vdi mtic y ngMa 5% cho tiiiy nhSn id ha tang du lich, tai nguydn du Iich, sti cam nhan cua du Idiach va nhan t^ ciu du Uch anh htidng den quylt dinh quay ttd lai cia du khach (Bang 5). TUy vay, d do tin cay 95%, nhom nh&i td rao cin ddi vdi du khach khdng CO sti ttidng quan vdi quylt dinh quay ttd lai cia ho.
T,^P CHl KHOA Hpc TRUCNG DAI HQC TRA VDJH, s 6 29, THANG 3 NAM 2018
Bang 3: Ket qua Idem dinh do tin cay cua thang do
Nhom c^u
Q = 0,815
Tiftfng quan bien - Imig C n m b a d i ' s alpha n^u loai bien 1. Thu nhap du khdch
2. SU nhan r8i
3 Sil h ^ ldng diung cua chuyen di
0,416 0.312 0,317
0,810 0,810
Nhom cung
a = 0,722
1. NhSn vien lidi s\f, diuyfin nghiap 2. NgUcIi dSn than thien, men khdch 3. Canh quan dep, hap dan 4. SV da dang cac di^m d^n 5 Am ihuc c&a dja phiidng 6. H$ th6ng vien thong 7 H^ thong nha hiing. khddi san 8. H^ UiSng cac khu vui chdi. giai In
0.409 0,396 0.348 0,391 0,353 0.482 0.572 0,467
0,695 0,716 0,708 0,699 0,706 0,681 0,659 0,684 1. Quy dinh chfnh sdch xuit n h | p canh 0.399 2. M5i tnidng d dilm den 0,391 3. An ninh b di^m din 0.631 4. S\f an todn khi di du hch 0.667 5. V? sinh y tS 0,613
0,722 0,754 0,683 0,674 0,696
(Nguon: Ket qud xvt li tit so lieu dieu tra 110 du khdch)
Bang 4; Ket qua phan tfch EFA thang do nhSn to Inh htidng den quyit dinh quay lai
Biln quan sa(
Me s6 tai n h ^ to V$ sinh y t l An ninh b diSn den Quy d)nh, chinh sach xuit nh^p canh He th6ng viln thong H$ thong nhd hdng, khdch ssin He th6ng cac khu vui chdi, gidi trf Nhdn vign ljch si/. chuy€n nghifp Canh quan d^p, h i p din Svi da d ^ g cua cdc di^m den NgUfli dan thdn thiSn, men khdch Sl/ bai ldng chung cua chuyen di Su nhdn roi
Thu nh^p du khdch KMO=0,763
NhSn tS
0,772 0.767 0,746 0,605
Sig.=0,000
Ha taug
Hes6
0.849 0,733 0.625 0,514
Eigenvalue = 1,084>1
Tai nguySn Nh3n td du lich cam nhan tai nhSn ih
0,816 0.8O4
0.819 0,767
T^ng phif<(ng sai trich NhSn (6 c i u
0,764 0,679
= 67,79%
(Ngudn: Ket qud xd li tit sd lieu dieu tra 110 du khdch)
Kit qua tten con cho thiy, cl bdn nhan td anh htidng tten diu cd mdi ttidng quan thuan chieu vdi quylt cBnh quay ttd lai du lich Thanh phd Cin Thd cua du khach. Theo do, "NhSn td cam nhan cua du khach" dtidc xem la nhan td quan ttong nhit, tac ddng din xac suit quay ttd lai cua khach qudc te. Cu the, khi du khach danh gia cam nhdn cua minh ve du Iich Thanh phd Cin Thd cao hdn 01 ddn vi ttong thang do thi xac suit quay ttd lai du lich cao hdn 16,359 lan
vdi mtic y nghia 1%. Thti hai, khi nhan td "Ha ting du Uch" dtidc du khach danh gia cao hdn 01 ddn vi thi xac suit quay ttd lai cao hdn 3,652 Ian d mtic y nghia 1%. Thti ba, du khach dartii gia cao hdn 01 ddn vi ttong thang do "Nhan td cau du Iich" se tac ddng din xac suit quay ttd lai du lich cao hdn 2,815 lln vdi mtic y nghia 5%. Ngoai ra, nhan td "TM nguyen du lich" cda dia phtidng cung dtidc du khach ntidc ngoai quan tam khi quyit dinh ttd lai Thanh phd Cin Thd
T.^P CHi KHOA HQC TRUClNG DAI HOC TRA VINft s 6 29, THANG 3 NAM 2018 KlNHTfe-XAHOl
Bang 5: Kit qua md hinh Logistic nhi phSn
TSnbl^D Hang so Nh6m nhan t6 rki cdn Ha ting du l)ch Tii nguySn du ljch Nhan [6 cdm nhin cua i Nhdn ti ciu du ljch
Tl 1^ di; dodn chinh
H S s ^ B -22.098 -0,089
1,295 0,949 du khach 2,795
1,035 Gia tri Sig.
-2Log Likelihood Cojt va Snell R^
Nagelkerke R^
xac cua md hinh (%) Sal so d i u a n
4,479 0.459 0.476 0,454 0.655 0,486 0.001 79,062 0,435 0,600 87,3
Kiem dinh Wald 24.346
0,038 7,407 4,372 18,199 4,544
Gia tri Sig.
0,000 0,846 0,006 0,037 0.000 0,033
E s p ( B ) 0.000 0,915 3.652 2,584 16,359 2,815
(Ngudn: Ket qud xii li tit so lieu dieu tra 110 du khdch)
du lich, bdi du khach danh gia cao hdn 01 ddn vi ctia nhan td nay thi kha nang ho quay lai Thanh phd Cin Thd cao hdn 2,584 lan vdi mtic y nghia
IV. KfeTLUANVA HAM Y CHINH SACH Kit qua nghien ctiu cho thiy, quyet ifinh quay ttd lai du lich Thanh phd Can Thd ciia du khach qudc tl chii yeu tfl phfa cung va can du Uch.
Theo dd, kit qua phan tfch hdi cpiy nhi p h ^ cho thay co bdn nhan td tac ddng din quylt dinh nay. Ttidng tii nghidn ctiu cua Bashagi &
Muchapondwa [5] va Kosnan & Ismail [4], kit qua nghien ctiu mdt lln nfla khang (Unh nhdm cac ylu td thudc ve nhan td can du lich (nhti thu nhap va sti nhan rdi cua du khach ntidc ngoai) anh htidng den sti ttd lai cua du khach. Tuy nhien, khac SO vdi cac nghien ctiu cua Yang & cdng sti [6] va Kosnan & Ismail [4], nhtf da trinh bay phin U thuylt, nghien ctiu nay da giai thich rd hdn sti tac ddng cua nhdm nlian td cung du lich din quylt dinh quay ttd lai cua du khach. Cu thi, du khach cho rang ylu td ha tang phuc vu du lich dia phtidng (nhti he thdng vien thdng, he thdng nha hang khach san, he tiidng cac khu vui chdi giai ttf va sti lich sti cung nhti chuyen nghidp cua nhan vien tiTic tilp phuc vy du khach), tai nguydn phuc vu du Uch (nhti ylu td canh quan va sti da dang cua cac dilm den) va ylu td stf cmn nhan vi du lich Can Thd (nhti sti tiian tiiiSn men khach ciia ngtidi dan dia phtidng va sti hai long^chung cua chuyin di) c6 sti tac ddng dang ke den quylt dinh ttd I^ cua du khach. Ttong do.
nhan td cam nh$n cua du khach anh htidng dang ke nhil den quyet dinh quay ttd lai cua ho. Diia tren kit qua, nghien ctiu de xuit mdt sd ham y cbinh sach nhtf sau:
Ddi vdi cac thanh phan kinh doanh dich vu du Uch (nhtf nha hang, khach san, cdng ty du lich, Ifl hanh, cac td chtic va ea nhan kinh doanh phuc VII khach du lich): kit qua nghien cihi cho thay du khach cho rang sti lich sti va tfnh chuyen ngltiep ctia nhan vien tnic tilp phuc vu la r^t quan ttong. Do dd, nhan vidn d cac ddn vi, ca nhan kinh doanh dich vu du lich can dtidc dao tao bai ban vl chuydn mdn nghiep vu. Id nang giao tilp; cd thai do than tiuen, lich thiep, men khach, kheo leo trong each ting xti va xii U tinb hudng d l t^o dau In ttong long du Idiach. Ben canh dd, kit qua nghien ctiu con cho thay, ttong nhdm nhan td can du Uch, thu nhap cua du khach cd tac ddng din quylt ^nh quay ttd lai du lich.
Do do, cac td chtic, ca nhSn kinh doanh du lidi can nghien ctiu cac phan khue khach hang theo thu nhap d& cd nhflng san p h ^ , dich vij du Iich dap ting nhu can cua du khach. Cd nhti vSy, cac cdng ty mdi cd till phuc vu nhu ciu khach hang mdt each tdt nhat, tao sti cam nhSn ^ t cho du khach ve du Uch T h ^ phd Cin Thd.
Ddi vdi chfnh quyin dia phtidng: theo kit qui nghien ctiu, ylu td h^ tang du Uch ciia Thanh pho Can Tlid cung anh htidng dang ke den quylt dinh quay ttd lai du lich. Do dd, trong dai han chinh quyen dia phtidng can quy hoach, tap tiung xSy dtfng, dlu Vd phat tiiln cd sd ha ting pfauc vii (iw hoat dong du lich cua Thanh phd. Cu till, Thanh phd Can Thd can dlu ni he tiidng vien tiidng,
TAP CHf KHOA H p c T R U 6 N G D * I HpC TRA VINH. s 6 29. THANG 3 NAM 2018 KINH ife - XA H0I
quy hoach dau tt( vao he tiidng nha hang, khach san va cac khu vui chdi giai tri dat chuan di dap ting nhu ciu du lich ciia du khach. Ben camh do, cac cd quan, ban. nganh, d ^ bidt la Sd vkn hda.
The tiiao va Du Uch Cin Thd cin cd chinh sach quang ba hinh Inh, canh quan cung nhti sti hip din va da dang cac (film din cua du Uch Thanh phd Cin Thd den vdi khach qudc tl nhti to chtic cac !l hdi, sti kien d l thu hut du khach den vdi Thanh phd Can Thd.
TAI Ll£U THAM KHAO [1] Ajzen I. From intentions to actions: A theory
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Nha XuSt bin Thing k6; 2003.
[4] Kosnan S, Ismail N. Demand factors for intema- tional tourism in Malaysia: 1998-2009. In: Seventh Malaysian national economic conference: Economic and social transformation towards developed national report; 2012. Perak, University Kebangsaan Malaysia.
[5] Bashagi A, Muchapondwa E. What actions could boost intemational tourism demand for Tanzania?.
vol. 1S2. School of Economics, University of Cape Town; 2009.
[6] Yang Q, Ye F, Yan F. An empirical analysis of influential Actors in intemtional tourism income in Sichuan Province. Asian Social Science. 2011;7:54- 61.
[7] Salleh N, Othman R. Factors affecting the anival of Singaporean tourists to Malaysia and Malaysian tourists to Singapore. Prosidtng Perkem.
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[9] Huang C. The impact of local environment quality on intemational tourism demand: The case of China, Master thesis. University of San Francisco; 2002.
[10] Hoang Tr9ng, Chu NguySn M6ng Ngoc. PAiSn tich da li^u nghiin cAt vdi SPSS. TP. Hi Chi Minh: Nha Xu5t bSn Hing Diic; 2008.
[11] Nunnally J, Berstem I H. Pschychometric Theory. 3rd ed. New York: McC5raw-HiU, 1994.
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