\^^MfiP^
Nhin lai
chinh sdch tien te vd ty gid ndm 2009
TS. NGUYEN DLTC DO Vien Khoa hoc Tai chinh
Nhitng cdng thang vi ty gid vd huy ddng vd'n tren thi
trudng tiin te cudi ndm 2009 cho thdy, Ngdn hdng Nhd nudc trong ndm 2010 chi cd mot lua chon duy nhdt - dd la hudng chinh sdch tiin te vdo muc tieu on dinh
gid tri cua VND.
Sv lua chen khdng hodn hdo
Vao dau n a m 2009, ciing n h u nhieu qudc gia khac, nhiing tac ddng Hgu cue tir cudc suy thoii kinh tg' toan eau ddi hdi Vigt N a m p h i i thi hanh chinh sach Hgn tg ndi long, ha t h i p lai s u i t dg' thiic day d i u tu va tigu dimg.
Tuy nhign, do ngn kinh tg' Viet N a m bi dd la hda d miic eao, ddng thdi ky vpng VND bi giam gia SP vdi USD tign thi trudng v i n cdn ldn, vigc ha lai s u i t huy ddng VND khdng khuyg'n khich ngudi dan va doanh nghiep giii Hen vao he thdng ngan hang.
Trude tinh hinh dd, Chinh phii Viet Nam da thuc hign chinh sach bu lai s u i t cho vay ddi vdi VND, vdi ky vpng dat cimg mdt liic ca 2 mue tigu:
huy ddng dupc Hgn giii VND cho he thdng ngan hang, ddng thdi v i n d i m b i o cho cac doanh nghigp vay vd'n vdi lai s u i t tha'p.
Dign bien trgn thi trudng tien tg sau dd cho thay, su lua chpn nay cd cai gia ciia nd.
Cd the ndi, nhiing khiem khuyet ciia chuong tiinh bii lai s u i t da bde Id ngay sau khi chucmg trinh nay b i t d i u dupe thue hien. Miic chi phi vd'n vay ddi vdi VND t h i p (lai s u i t cho vay VND khdng cao b a n nhieu so vdi lai s u i t cho vay USD) da khien nhu c i u ve tin dung VND tang manh, tiong dd cd ea nhu c i u vay de dao np.
De' dap ling n h u c i u nay, cac ngan hang thuang mai (NHTM) da p h i i
Uen tue nang lai s u i t huy ddng VND.
Den d i u thang 11/2009 miic lai suit huy ddng da len tdi tign 10%/nam (so vdi miic trgn 7 % / n a m hdi dau nam) n h u n g v i n khdng dap ling dupc rihu c i u qua cao vg vd'n ciia cae doanh nghiep (tdc dp tang trudng tin dung trong 10 thang d i u n a m 2009 da len tdi trgn 33%, vupt miic tian tin dung 30% ma N H N N dat ra).
Vigc cac NHTM khd huy ddng vd'n (so vdi nhu ciu) cd nhi^u nguygn nhan. Thii nhat, trong khi thuc hign bii lai suit, N H N N v i n kiem soat tdc dp tang cung tien M2 (muc tigu la 25%) de ngan ngira lam phat ed the quay lai trong tuong lai. Thu hai, thi trudng ehiing khoan va bat d d n g s i n phuc hdi m a n h me da thu hiit mdt lupng vd'n dang ke tir dan ehiing. Thii ha, lam phat d Viet N a m v i n cao ban nhieu so vdi cac nudc khac, ddng thdi Hnh trang tham hut thuang mai ed xu hudng gia tang tir giiia nam (trong n h u n g thang cudi n a m tham hut thuong mai dat miic trung binh k h o i n g 1,5 ty USD/thang) da khien ky vpng VND m i t gia so vdi USD ngay cang manh, thiic day ngudi dan va doanh nghigp n i m giii USD. Ty gia V N D / U S D trgn thi trudng tu do da lign tue gia tang va dg'n cudi thing 11/2009 da dat mire eao n h i t la 20.000 VND/USD.
Xet trgn p h u o n g dien ly thuyg't, N H N N da cd the dieu chinh ty gia V N D / U S D (cho phep VND m i t gia Bang 1
TY LE TIET KIEM/GDP VA DAU TIT/GDP CUA VIET NAM GIAI DOAN 1995-2008 (%)
TK OT T K - D T
95 18,2 27,1 -8,9
96 17,2 28,1 -10,9
97 20,1 28,3 -8,2
98 21,5 29,0 -7,6
99 24,6 27,6 -3,1
00 27,1 29,6 -2,5
01 28,8 31,2 -2,4
02 28,7 33,2 -4,5
03 27,4 35,4 -8,0
04 28,5 35,5 -6,9
Nguon 05 30,3 35,6 -5,3
06 30,6 36,8 -6,2
07 08 29,2 26,6 43,1 41,1 -13,9 -14,5!
sdlieu: ADB, Key Indicators 2009
1
42 Tai chinh THANG , o
•^t^^'
so vdi USD), de g i i m ddng co n i m giii ngoai tg ciia ngudi dan va doanh nghiep, tvr dd binh dn lai s u i t huy ddng. Tuy nhign, trgn thuc tg' chinh sach nay da khdng dupc thuc hien sdm. Ly do chinh la N H N N mudn dn dinh ty gia VND/USD de duy tii kha nang tra n p nudc ngoai ciia Chinh phii va doanh nghiep .
Mac du vay, den cudi thang 11/2009, khi tinh tiang thanh k h o i n ciia cac NHTM trd ngn cang t h i n g , N H N N da phai thuc hien ddng thdi ea 2 chinb sach: (i) nang lai s u i t ca ban tii 7% Ign 8% ke tii ngay 1/12/2009; va (U) dieu chinh ty gia chinh tiiiic VND/USD len miic 17.961 VND/USD (khoing 5,6%), ddng thdi ha bign dd dao ddng ty gia VND/USD tign thi trudng chinh thiic tir 5% xud'ng cdn 3% kg' tir ngay 26/11/2009, tiic la ve tdng the da nang ty gia tiin tign thi tiudng chinh thiic them 3,6%.
Muc tigu ciia cac chinh sach nay la lam suy yg'u ddng co n i m giu ngoai tg, khuyg'n khich ngudi dan va cac
doanh nghiep n i m giii VND, ddng thdi ban chg' nhu eiu vay VND. Tuy nhign, tac ddng cua cac chinh sach nay den thi trudng Hen te trong thang cudi nam la khdng ldn. Nhu ciu vay vdn eua doanh nghigp v i n eao, mdt p h i n do tinh miia vu, p h i n khac do cac doanh nghiep cd g i n g vay trong nam 2009 de khdi phai chiu lai s u i t 12% (hoae eao hon ng'u N H N N tiep tue tang lai s u i t eo ban) trong nam mdi 2010. Trgn thi trudng ngoai te tu do, ty gia VND/USD v i n diing d miic 19.300 - 19.500 VND/USD, cao hon b i n miic tiin 18.500 VND/USD n h u N H N N quy dinh do ky vpng VND Hep tue m i t gia SP vdi USD.
Hon niia, vdi nhiing dieu chinh ve chinb sach ty Hgn te va ty gia ndi tign, cae mue Hgu d u dinh ban dau ciia chinh sach bu lai s u i t da khdng dupe hpan thanh mdt each trpn ven. Viee nang lai s u i t c a b i n thgm 1% tir ngay 1/12/2009 ddng nghia vdi viee lai s u i t cho vay VND tang thgm 1,5%
(150% lai s u i t c o b i n ) , tiie miic hd trp lai s u i t cho doanh nghigp, vg thue
chit, da bi g i i m tir 4% xud'ng cdn 2,5% trude thdi ban 31/12/2009 mdt thang. Ddng thdi, viee dieu chinh ty gia da khig'n k h i nang t r i n p nudc ngoai ciia Chinb phii va cae doanh nghiep ciing khdng dupe duy tii n h u mong mudn.
Cau hdi dat ra la: Tai sao N H N N da cham tig tiong vigc digu chinb lai s u i t c a b i n va ty gia VND/USD, mac dil nhiing Hn hieu ro rang ve m i t can ddi cung e i u USD ciing n h u n h u n g cang t h i n g tiong vigc huy ddng VND trgn thi trudng da xuat hign tir giiia nam 2009?
Ddi vdi viec dieu chinh lai suit, ed thg' ed hai ly do khien N H N N cham nang lai s u i t co b i n . Thii nhat, lam phat chua ed dau hieu tang trd lai.
Cho den thang 11/2009 tdc dp tang CPI van cdn chua eao, ehi tang 0,55%
so vdi thang 10/2009 va 5,07% so vdi thang 12/2008. Nguyen nhan thii hai mang tinh chinh tii, bdi vigc tang lai s u i t CO b i n ddng nghia vdi viec ket thiie sdm chuong tiinh bii lai suit.
Ddi vdi vigc digu chinh ty gia
Bang 2 ^ ^
1 TOC DO TANG M2, TANG TRU-CTNG VA LAM PHAT TAI TRUNG QUOC GIAI DOAN 1995-2008 (%)
M2 GDP
L.
CPI 95 32,3 10,9 17,196 25,3 10,0 8,3
97 19,6
9,3 2,8
98 14,8
7,8 -0,8
99 14,7
7,6 -1,4
00 12,3
8,4 0,4
01 17,6
8,3 0,7
02 16,9
9,1 -0,8
03 19,6 10,0 1,2
04 14,9 10,1 3,9
05 16,3 10,4 1,8
06 17,0 11,6 1,5
07 08 16,7 17,8 13,0 9,0 4,8 5,9 Ngudn s6li$u:ADB. Key Indicators 2009
Tai Chinh TMANG 1/2010 43
A ^ i i C ^ ^ P^
V N D / U S D , eau tii ldi la bgn canh nhiing khd khan ve mat chinh tii, cdn phai ke den mdt nguygn nhan khac la viec N H N N da danh gia t h i p siic manh ciia thi trudng ngoai te tu do.
Vdi mong m u d n dn dinh ty gia VND/USD, trong giai doan giiia nam 2009, khi nhung cang t h i n g tren thi trudng ngoai hdi b i t d i u gia tang, N H N N da thuc hien can thigp b i n g each ban USD. Cach thiie can thiep nay dua trgn mdt nhan dinh co ban r i n g , nguygn nhan d i n den gia USD tign thi tiudng tu do tang cao la do m i t can ddi giiia eung va ciu ngoai te.
Can can thanh toan tdng thg' tiong nam 2009 ehi bi tham hut khoing tien dudi 2 ty USD, do vay, viee N H N N ban ra vai ty USD dupe ky vpng cd the thigi lap lai can ddi giiia cung va eiu ve ngoai te.
Tuy nhign, cdn mdt yeu to co ban khac d i n tdi mat can ddi eung eiu ve ngoai te, dd la nhan thiie ciia ngudi dan va doanh nghigp ve gia tri ciia VND da thay ddi. Khi ngudi dan va doanh nghigp tin r i n g VND bi dinh gia cao va se bi m i t gia so vdi USD, nhu eiu n i m giii ngoai te ciing tang theo. Dil yeu to nay eung dupe tinh de'n nhung dudng nhu nd da bi N H N N danh gia t h i p . N H N N cd thign hudng coi dd la mdt yeu td mang tinh tam ly va chi tao ngn miic e i u "ao", cd tinh d i u eo trgn thi trudng. Nd se tu bien m i t khi eung c i u ngoai tg "thuc" dupc can bing, ty- gia dn dinh va nigm tin vao ddng ndi tg dupe phue hdi.
Thue tg' da chiing minh rang, thi tiudng ngoai tg tu do d Viet Nam ed mdt sue sdng manh liet va mue eiu
" i o " dd khdng dg gi bi trigt tigu, n h i t la khi nd dupc hinh thanh tign nhiing ngn tang kinh te' co ban nhu lam phat tham hut can can thuang mai va su suy g i i m cua cac ngudn vd'n tir bgn ngoai do tac ddng eiia suy thoai kinh te' toan eiu. Trong sudt giai doan N H N N can thigp trgn thi tiudng
ngoai hdi, gia USD tign thi trudng tu do da khdng he g i i m , tham chi cdn tang. Miic tang m a n h nhat x i y ra vao thang 11/2009, khi thi trudng ehiing k h o i n bat d i u qua tiinh dieu chinb sau mdt giai doan tang ndng, gia vang tign thg' gidi Ugn tig'p lap ky luc mdi (miic eao n h i t dat tign 1200 USD/ounce vao d i u thang 12/2009) thiic day cac boat ddng n h a p khau vang lau, ddng thdi nhu c i u ve ngoai te de nhap khau tiong giai doan cudi nam gia tang theo chu ky.
Dinh hudng cho tuong lai Thuc tiang kinh tg' - tai chinh Viet Nam trong nam 2009 cho t h i y , vigc hoach dinh chinh sach Hen tg trong tuong lai c i n p h i i Hnh den 3 yeu td:
• Yeu td thii n h i t la su tdn tai khach quan eua thi trudng tu do. Mdt khi toan dan dgu n i m giii USD, thi tiudng nay se khdng dg gi bi xda bd.
Neu thira nhan su tdn tai ciia thi trudng tu do, N H N N chi cdn 2 lua chpn trong "bd ba b i t kha thi": (i) Hoae thi hanh mdt chinh sach tign te ddc lap va t h i ndi ty gia, (ii) hoae chinh sach tign te p h i i dupe hoach dinh de dn dinh ty gia.
• Yeu td thii hai phai tinh de'n khi hoach dinh chinh sach Hgn te trong thdi gian tdi la Idng tin eua ngudi dan va doanh nghigp ddi vdi chinh sach tien te va gia tri VND. Hign nay, ky vpng VND m i t gia tien thi trudng dang d miic cao. Ne'u ky vpng nay khdng dupe khdng che, hg thdng ngan hang se ngay cang gap khd khan tiong viec huy ddng vdn (VND), nha't la vd'n dai ban va tinh dn dinh ciia he thdng tai chinh Viet N a m sg bi suy giam.
• Yeu td thii ba phai tinh tdi la higu qua tuong ddi ciia chinh sach tien tg ddi vdi 2 muc tigu: thiic day d i u tu, s i n xuit tiong n g i n ban va dn dinh kinh te vi md. Thue te cho thiy, mue tigu thiie day d i u t u vao nha xudng, may mde (mang tinh trung va
dai ban) ciia chuong tiinh b' ^a*
(chinh sach tien te m d rdng) '^o^g dat dupe n h u mong mudn. y md vay vd'n trung va dai ban idid ban nhigu so vdi quy md vay vdn n g i n ban de bd sung vdn luu ddng, tiong dd cd c i vigc d i u co Hch trii nguyen vat Ueu. Theo mdt sd udc tinh, dg'n h&
nam 2009 d u n p cho vay lai s u i t ngin ban vao khoang 400.000 ty ddng, tiong khi d u n o cho vay lai s u i t tiung va dai ban chi la 70.000 ty ddng. Mpt sd tinh toan khac ebo tha'y, muc hang tdn kho eiia cac d o a n h nghiep tiong giai doan cudi n a m 2009 da Ign tdi 5,4% GDP. Dieu nay cd nghia la su phuc hdi ciia nen kinh te tiong nhiing thang qua cdn chua ben viing. Day ciing chinh l i Iy do khien mdt sd chuygn gia n h u TS. Le Xuan Nghia - Phd Chii tich Uy ban Giam sat Tai chinh Qudc gia- cho r i n g , nen kinh te Viet N a m ed the tao day tang trudng kinh tg' l i n 2 tiong quy 1/2010.
Tuy nhien, tac d d n g ciia chinh sach tien te tdi su dn dinh kinh te vi md ciia Vigt N a m lai rat dang ke. Vdi viee ty le Het k i g m / G D P ehi vao k h o i n g dudi 30%, tiong khi ty le dau h r / G D P da dat trgn 40%, Viet Nam dang p h i i chiu miic tham hut thuong m a i / G D P it nhat la 10% (Bing I). Neu chinh sach tien te va tai chinh khdng hpp siic de dn dinh gia tri VND va giam miie tham hut thucmg mai xudng, ky vpng VND m i t gia so vdi USD trgn thi trudng se ngay cang manh, ap lire dieu chinh ty gia se ngay cang ldn, thanh khoan ciia he thdng ngan hang se bi de dpa va lai s u i t VND lai phai tang cao tid lai nhu nhiing gi da dign ra trong nhiing thang cudi nam 2009.
Tinh hinh se phiic tap hon neu cd thgm yeu to thii tu la Fed nang lai s u i t CO b i n de kiem che lam phat va Chinh phii My nang lai s u i t tiai phieu kho bac de bu d i p ngan sach.
Nhiing chinh sach nay sg khien cho cac ddng vdn chay vao cac nudc dang
Bangs
LAI SUAT CHO VAY DANH NGHTA, LAM PHAT TRUNG BINH/NAM VA LAI SUAT CHO VAY THLTC TAI VIET NAM (%)
Lai suat cho vay danh nghTa Lam phat trung binh hang nam Lai sudt cho vay thirc
96 20,1
5,6 14,5
97 14,4
3,1 11,3
98 14,4
8,1 6,3
99 12,7
4,1 8,6
00 10,6 -1,8 12,3
01 9,4 -0,3 9,7
02 9,1 4,1 5,0
03 9,5 3,3 6,2
04 9,7 7,9 1,8
05 11,0
8,4 2,6
06 11,2
7,5 3,7
07 11,2
8,3 2,8
08 i5,a
23,1 -7,3
Nguon so lieu: ADB, Key Indicators 2009: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database. October 2009,
44 Tai Chinh THANG
• » ? « : • #
./#' £ I
phat tiien bi suy giim.
Vdi viec tinh de'n nhiing yeu td tren, mdt chinh sach tien te hudng dg'n viec dn dinh gia tii ddng tign va g i i m d i n n h a p sigu la lira chpn b i t bude ddi vdi Vigt Nam, cho dii nd cd the khig'n cho d i u tu va tang trudng kinh te giim tiong n g i n ban, tham chi trong c i trung ban. Tuy nhien, chinb sach nay lai cd the mang lai nhiing lpi ich to ldn tir viec dn dinh kinh te vi md va tang trudng dai ban. Neu su dn dinh ve gia tii ciia VND dupc duy tii trong mdt thdi gian dai, thi trudng ngoai te tu do se dupc thu hep dang ke, quy md cac ddng vdn d i u co se g i i m d i n de chuyen sang cac hinh thiic d i u tu dai ban.
Ve viec hoach dinh chinh sach Hen te, Viet Nam cd the tham k h i o kinh nghigm eiia Trung Qudc. Trong sudt mdt thap ky ke tir sau khi cudc khiing hoang tai chinh - tign tg chau A nam 1997 xay ra, Trung Qudc ludn duy tri tdc dp tang M2 d miie khdng qua 20%/nam ma v i n dat dupc ddng thdi c i 2 mue tigu: tang tiudng nhanh va lam phat t h i p (Bing 2). Ddi vdi Viet Nam, do thi trudng tai chinh chua
Mpt chfnh sach tien te hirang den viec on djnh gia trj dong tien va giam
dan nhap sieu la li/a chpn bat buoc doi vcri Viet Nam, cho du no co the khien cho dau tu* va tang tru'o'ng Itinh t^ giam
trong ngin han.
thue su phat tiien, ngn kinh te' cd thg' h i p thu dupc miie tang M2 ldn hon so vdi Trung Qudc trong mdt khoang thdi gian nao dd.
Viee N H N N dat mue tieu tang trudng tin dung nam 2010 dmiic 25%
ebo tha'y, Viet Nam dang hoach dinh chinh sach tien te theo hudng duy tri su dn dinh gia tii eiia VND.
Mae dil vay, viee duy tri ty gia V N D / U S D sg khd ed the dat dupe trong n g i n ban, do lam phat chua thg' dupe ha t h i p ngay lap tiic, ddng thdi
c i n can thuong mai se v i n bi tham hut d miic khdng nhd tiong n g i n ban.
Ky vpng VND tiep tiic mat gia so vdi USD se cdn gia tang.
Vdi g i i dinh mire lam phat muc Hgu tiong n a m 2010 ciia Viet N a m la 7 - 8%, ciia My la 2 - 3%, miic ky vpng VND mat gia so vdi USD trong n a m 2010 se vao khoang tign dudi 5%. Ng'u N H N N cuong quyg't dn dinh ty gia b i n g each t h i t chat Hen te, lai s u i t cho vay eudi n a m 2010 se phai dupc tang Ign miic r i t eao la 17% (hien nay la 12% va cdng thgm 5%), tiic la ngudi di vay se p h i i tra miic lai s u i t thue duong khoang g i n -1-10%. Day la mdt miic lai s u i t cho vay thue cao so vdi tiong lieh sii va khd cd k h i nang dupc chap nhan, n h i t la trong bdi canh kinh tg' cdn chua phuc hdi hoan toan.
Chinh vi vay, viec N H N N phai tiep tue dieu chinh ty gia (de VND m i t gia so vdi USD) la khd tianh khdi.
Tuy nhign, ne'u dupe sir hd t r p cua chinh sach tign tg (hudng vao vigc dn dinh gia tii VND), miic digu chinh cd the se dupc g i i m d i n va ty gia se dat dupe su dn dinh trong mdt vai n a m
tdi. $
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