An ninh iLPcng thiFC a Tieu vung song
Me Cong ma rong du'6'i tac dong cua bien doi khi hau
Th. S. NGUYEN QUE NGA*
Ngn doi tren the giai Igi tra thanh vdn de thai su tren the giai. Ddu ndm 2008, gid thuc pham noi chung deu tdng manh. khien cung mot lugng tien nhu truac. nhung nay nguai ddn chi mua dugc mot lugng hang it han truac rat nhieu. Hau het ddn thudng deu phai danh mot phan lan thu nhap cua tninh de mua luong thirc. Doi vai cdc nude Tieu vung song Me Cong, nhirng nuac co ty trgng nong nghiep cao trong ca cdu kinh te, gid luang thuc tdng ciing tdc dong rat Idn den dai song nhdn ddn. An ninh luang thuc a Tieu vung nay khong phdi Id viec khong co luang thuc md a cho nguai ddn tra nen ngheo di, khong cd tien de mua luang thuc. Dac biet khu vuc ndy cd ty le ngheo tuang ddi cao.
Han the, vdn de su dung nguon nude cua song Me Cdng - con song lan thir ba the gidi ndy cung ddt ra nhieu vdn de ddi viyi an ninh luong thirc a khu vuc ndy
1. Thuc trang cua bien doi khi hau 6 cac nuoc Tieu viing song Me Cong mo rong
Cac nuoc Tieu viing s6ng Me C6ng nam trong khu vuc du bao bi anh huong nghiem trpng boi tha>' d6i khi hau. Cu6i nam 2004. dau nam 2005. cac nuac trong khu vuc phai chiu dung mot dpi ban ban t6i te nhat trong vong 50 nam do lupng mua thap. Theo nhiing bao cao moi day. t6n that ciia n6ng dan Thai Lan do ban ban thai diem do Ien den 193.2 trieu USD. do 809 nghin ha hoa mau bi mat. Viet Nam mat 60 trieu USD do that thu miia vu va khoang 1,3 trieu nguai kh6ng co nuoc sach. Cac nuoc khac nhu Campuchia va Trung Quoc cQng chiu nhirng anh huong tuong lu.
Cac nuac trong khu \\.xc Tieu viing s6ng Me C6ng la khu \irc chiu anh huong ciia muc nuoc
bien dang Ien. cac con bao nhiet doi. da lam cho nuoc bien ,\am nhap vao dat canh tac nong nghiep. Noi day cung la noi xay ra cac hien lugng thai tiet do sir am Ien toan cau nhu kho ban da va dang xay ra voi tan suat ngay cang cao trong tuong lai. lam anh huong den san xuat n6ng nghiep va an ninh luong thuc,
Theo Chuong trinh m6i truong trung tam QMS va Ngan hang Phat triln chau A (2007)'.
khu vuc s6ng Me C6ng chay qua Thai Lan.
Campuchia va Viet Nam se la khu vuc co nhiet dp lang do bien d6i khi hau. Nhiet dp 6 Campuchia so voi nam 2008 co thi tang Ien 0.3.
0.3 va 2''C tuong img voi cac nam 2025. 2050 va 2100. Lugng mua hang nam 6 nuoc nay dugc du bao cung tang din 6% so voi lugng
* \ icii Kinh te vii Chinh trj The gioi
A D B (2007): Siraici^ic Franwwork for .Suhrci^ionul Coopcruiion m .-\^ncullurc 20()6-:o 10. Asian De\elopnicnt Bank, Manila.
20 Nhdng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TR! THE GlOl So 1 (153) 2009
Nguyen Qu§ Nga An ninh luong thuc a Ti§u vung Me Cong mo rong
mua hien tai, Lugng mua tang Ien o viing dat thap se cao ban so voi 6 khu vuc cao nguyen va duyen hai. Do do. din nam 2050 co khoang
15.000 - 20.000 km2 cua d6ng bang s6ng Me C6ng bi lii lut.
Nhiet dp chi can tang it (nhiet dp ban dem) anh huong Ion den nang suat gao, nguon luong thuc \ a thu nhap chinh ciia cac cong d6ng n6ng lh6n o khu \ u c GMS. Theo so lieu nhiet dp hon 100 nam qua. nhiet dp da tang manh tai khu vuc tam giac giira Campuchia. Lao va Thai Lan va lang tuong d6i o phan con lai ciia Campuchia.
Dong Bac Thai Lan, Nam Lao va Trung va Nam Viet Nam. Theo s6 lieu th6ng ke ciia Vien Nghien ciiu Gao qu6c te (IRRI), da co sir giam silt ve nang suat gao do anh huong ciia tang nhiet dp. Trong khoang thai gian tir nam 1979 den nam 2003, nhiet dp trung binh Ion nhat hang nam tang 0,3 5"C va nhiet dp trung binh thap nhat tang 1.13"C . Nang suat gao giam
10% khi nhiet dp that thap theo miia tang 1"C.
San xuat gao 6 Thai Lan hi anh huong tuong d6i Ion tir hien tupng EI Nino va La Nina. Nhirng nam hien tugng EI Nino xay ra. san xuat gao dat nang suat thap nhat, trong khi do nang suat dat cao nhat khi co hien tugng La Nina'.
Theo nghien cii'u ciia Trung tam khu vuc START D6ng Nam A (SEA START), khu vuc Tieu viing s6ng Me C6ng nhin chung se bi am Ien va am uot hon khi chiu anh huong boi sir gia tang ham lugng CO2 trong khi quyen Ien den 720 ppm. Thoi gian nong trong nam se keo dai ban va thai ky mat me trong nam se ngan di dang kl. trong khi do miia mua kh6ng co su thay d6i vl do dai thai gian. nhung mire dp mua se lan hon nhilu. Nhirng thay d6i \ e tbc^i tiet
nay dan den l6c dp dong chay o nhieu nhanh s6ng ciia s6ng Me C6ng se manh hon.
Nghien cim tren chi ra rang, thay d6i khi hau 6 khu vuc ha nguon s6ng Me C6ng co the lam bien doi va chuyen dich co cau miia mua. Dieu nay anh huong true tiep den viec tr6ng lua nuoc, boat dong n6ng nghiep quan trpng nhat ciia phan Ion dan s6 trong khu vuc. Kel qua tir viec thiic day sir dung ky thuat m6 hinh tr6ng trpt cho thay nang suat gao trong cac nghien cim 6 Thai Lan se tang tir 3 den 6%. nhung ngupc lai nang suat tai Lao giam gan 10% lai cac truong hgp nghien cim. San xuat gao dong bang s6ng Cim Long ciia Viet Nam co xu huong thay d6i Ion khi khi hau tha>' d6i. dac biet san xuat vu he thu nang suat co the giam tai hon 40%^
Cac nghien cim khac ciing cho iha\- dong bang s6ng Ciru Long, mot trong nhirng khu \irc tr6ng trpt quan trpng nhat cua khu \irc. se hi anh huong nang ne nhat do nuac bicMi dang Ien.
Khoang 1.77 trieu ha dat se hi man hoa. chiem 45% dien tich dk\ Mot nghien ciru khac cung cho tha> muc nuac bien dang Ien se lain man hoa cac nhanh song chinh ciia song Me Cong sau \ao trong noi dia tai 10 km'. Lu lut va ket qua la mat dat. va nuac man xam nhap a dong bang song Cuu Long se de dpa nghiem trpng cupc s6ng cua nong dan cung nhu xuat khau
" CRFT) (2008): E\I-D.-\T: Emcri^cncy Events Dulaha.se..
Centre for Research on EpidemiologN of Disasters.
Available, http: u wu .enulal he
"' Yoshino M. (2001): Rice ProJiiciion anJ i'liniaie Chani^c in Mon.soon .-{sia Prohleni in ihe 21" Cenliirv..
Human |-;colog> Special Issue N" 10: Pp.1 13-1 1^)
^ SEA START. RC. (2006): Southeast .Asia Re^umal I'ulnerahiliiy to Chan^in^ Water Resource and Extreme HyJroloiiical. Events clue to Climate Change.
Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Bangkok.
-' CCFSC (2001): Second Sational Strate^- and .Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management in I'lel
\am^2UOI to 2020. Central Committee for Flood and Strom Control, Hanoi; dugc trich dan trong
Peter Chaudliry and Greet Ruysschaert (2007): Climate Change and Human Development in I'let .\'am. Human Development Report 2007 2008. UN.
" Ratsakuithai V. (2002): Climate Change Impacts and .Adaptation Options in liet .\'am. Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre. Bangkok; ducrc trich dan trong Peter Chaudhrv and Greet Ruysschaert, (2007) Cliniaie Change and Human Developiuent in I'leinani iluiii.in Development Report 200^ 2008.
Nhdna van de KINH TE VA CHINH TR! THE GlOl So 1 (153) 2009- 21
An ninh luong thi/c o' T i l u vung Me Cong mo" rong... Nguyin Qu6 Nga
n6ng san nhu gao va van de an ninh luong thuc
- • 1
quoc gia .
Nghien cim ciia Thoeun (2008)^ cho thay bien d6i khi hau lam giam dien tich rimg cay nhiet doi am, tang dien tich rimg nhiet doi la to va dien tich rimg kho se khong thay doi nhieu hoac giam khong dang ke 6 Campuchia. Dieu nay chi ra rang nang suat va da dang sinh thai ciia rimg ciing se thay doi theo. Campuchia co ty le chet do benh sot ret cao nhat trong khu vuc va s6 ca mac sot ret cao nhat trong cac benh truyen nhiem do bien doi khi hau. 0 mot so tinh ciia Campuchia, nhu Kampot, s6 ca sot ret tang Ien dang ke khi co hien tugng El Nino, nhung lai giam xuong trong thoi gian La Nina. Mot dien tich Ion dat ven bien ciia Campuchia se bj ngap do muc nuoc bien dang cao 1 m. Vi du, khoang 44 km2 (0,4%) ciia tinh Koh Kong se bi ngap trong nuoc bien vTnh vien va khoang 56%
dien tich dat 6 (thanh ph6/ thi tran) se bi lut. Tong thiet hai cho co so ha tang Ien den 21 trieu USD.
2. Tac dong ciia bien doi khi hau den van de an ninh luong thuc 6 cac nuoc Tieu vung song IVte Cong mo rong
Nhung thay d6i trong thoi tiet pha vo an ninh luong thuc trong khu vuc Tieu viing s6ng Me C6ng do nhirng van de sau :
- Nhiing thay d6i ve dac tinh ciia dat anh huong den su thich hgp sinh truong ciia cac loai cay tr6ng va d6ng co do thay d6i trong phan b6 cac khu vuc n6ng - sinh thai. Khi thai tiet thay d6i kieu dang, nhieu cay tr6ng tro nen khong
Ratsakuithai V. (2002): Climale Change Impacts and .Adaptation Options in Viet Nam. Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre. Bangkok cited in Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert. 2007: Climate Change and Human Development in Viet Nam, Human tDevelopment Report 2007/2008.
^ Thoeun H.C. (2008); I'ulnerabiliry and Adaption assessent in Cambodia, in Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia , Febuary 2008.
•' FAO. (2007): Climate Change and Food Security: .4 Framework Document. Summaiy. Interdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change, Food and .Agriculture C)ruani/iition of the United Nations. Rome, Italv
thich hgp hoac kh6ng co Igi nhuan do cac dieu kien san xuat chiing thay d6i hoac den gioi han.
Nhirng dilu kien de loai cay trong nay phat triln tit tren loai dat khac tro nen kho khan cho cac cay tring khac. Cac cay trong thich hgp voi khi hau 6n doi nhu khoai tay va rau, co the dugc tring 6 viing co do cao cao hon, trong khi nhirng cay hien dugc trIng 6 viing dat thap co the dugc trIng tren nhijng viing dat hoi cao hon .
- Mat dat CO kha nang trIng trpt do sir gia tang ciia ddt kho can di kem voi man hoa, giam lugng nuoc ngam va sir dang Ien ciia nuoc bien.
- Rui ro tang Ien do lu lut thuong xuyen hon, pham vi rong hon va nghiem trpng hon 6 khu vuc thap.
- Giam da dang sinh hpc va chirc nang he sinh thai ciia m6i truong tu nhien va thay doi ve siic khoe va nang suat cua rimg, dam lay...
- Nhirng thay d6i trong phan bo nguon nuoc chat lugng t6t cho san xuat tr6ng trpt, chan nuoi
\ a ca nuac ngpt.
- Cac m6i de dpa tir viec tang sau benh va dich benh do thay d6i trong phan bo sinh vat truyen benh.
Sir t6n thuang ciia nguoi ngheo do thay doi khi hau la mot van de dang lo ngai o cac nuoc Tieu viing s6ng Me C6ng mo rong. Boi vi, bien d6i khi hau anh huong true tiep den boat dong n6ng nghiep va co the de dpa cupc song ciia mot s6 Ion nong dan 6 khu vuc nay. (2> mire dp hp gia dinh, tinh de bi t6n thuong di kem voi thu nhap thap co the bi tac dong boi nhieu yeu to nhu: quy m6 va cau true gia dinh, boat dong sinh ke. dac diem the chat cua gia dinh, moi truang s6ng, chiu dung nhirng nguy hilm do thoi tiet gay ra, co che sao chep c6 biju, sir tin tai ciia he th6ng ho trg va co so ha tSng''.
'" Eraser, A. (2007): The Potential Environmental Impacts of Global Warming and Climate Change in ihe Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). Draft Unpublished Report submitted to GMS Environment Operations Center.
Salleh . K.O (2008): Vulnerability and .Adaptive C apaciiles of Low income Economic Systems to the
22 Nhdng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TR! THE GIOI So 1 (153) 2009
Nguyin Qu§ Nga An ninh luong thuc 6 Tieu vung Me Cong ma rong
Dan s6 lam n6ng nghiep chiem den mot phan ba dan so cua khu vuc. Bien d6i khi hau con tang them ap lire Ien kinh te n6ng th6n 6 GMS ve muc tieu xoa doi giam ngheo. Ngheo doi o tieu khu vuc nay chu yeu tap trung 6 khu vuc n6ng th6n va gan nhu tat ca nguai ngheo 6 khu vuc n6ng th6n la n6ng dan tr6ng lua gao. Rat nhieu dan tpc thieu so 6 GMS song 6 xung quanh va trong viing rirng niii, cupc s6ng ciia hp phu thupc phan Ion vao ngu6n sinh ke la nong nghiep. Tuong tu, cac cong d6ng dan cu ngheo ven bien la nhirng nguoi de bi t6n thuong nhat khi hp bi han che trong kha nang thich nghi voi sir bien d6i khi hau va phu thupc nhieu hon vao ngu6n cung cap thirc an va nuoc nhay cam vol khi hau.
Tai Thai Lan, mot nghien cim danh gia mire dp anh huong riii ro va t6n thuang ciia nguoi n6ng dan tr6ng liia nuoc duoi cac kich ban bien doi khi hau trong tuong lai cho thay chi co gan mot phan ba n6ng dan thupc nhom "co kha nang phuc h6i cao" va "it riii ro", hon hai phan ba con lai la nhirng nguoi co mire dp riii ro cao do CO mire dp nhay cam voi riii ro ve thai tiet va
' 17
thieu kha nang thich img .
Mot nghien ciru ve danh gia miic dp de bi tin thuong ciia nong dan tr6ng liia nuoc a Lao cung cho thdy 69% hp n6ng dan bi mat 30% san lupng gao va co 36%) hp n6ng dan bi mat 50%
san lugng gao san xuat ra. Hau bet, nhung nguoi n6ng dan c6 thi thich nghi bang each dieu chinh boat dong trIng trpt ciia minh va tim kilm nhirng nguin thu nhap khac ngoai n6ng nghiep d l bii dap nhirng ton that trong san xuat liia gao. Tuy nhien, hp van con bi ban che boi kha nang thich nghi tap-the ',
Climate Change Threat, in Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia , Febuary 2008.
'" Chinvanno (2008): .Assessing risk and social vulnerability in Climale Change .Adaptation a Case StucK on ram-ted farmenrs in Thailand, in Economv and Environment
Program for Southeast Asia , Febuary 200o.
" Souvannalath (2008): The .A.ssessmeni oj Community I'ulnerahility and .Adaptation to Impact o/' Climate
Nghien ciru cua Thoeun (2008)'^ cho tha> lu nam 2002 den nam 2007. san lugng liia gao cua n6ng dan Campuchia bi l6n that chu >eu do thay doi khi hau. trong do 70% ton that do kit loi va gan 20% do kh6 ban. mat mat \ e san lugng do sau benh kh6ng dang ke. Nam 2004.
Campuchia c6 hon mot phan ba dan so (36°o) s6ng a miic ngheo trong t6ng s6 15 trieu nguoi.
trong do khu vuc n6ng th6n chiem hon 90° o.
San xuat gao a nuoc nay la nguon cung cap luong thuc chii yeu. chiem 90% dien tich tr6pg trpt. Do vay. nhung anh huong trong san xuat lua gao anh huong true tiep Ien an ninh luong thuc 6 nuoc ngay.
De d6i pho voi nhung anh huong cua bien d6i khi hau. chien luge nong nghiep cua cac nuac GMS phai dieu chinh de thich nghi \ai nhung bien doi ciia kin' hau. nhu su dicing giong cay tr6ng can it nuoc nhu ke tha\' cho ngo. hoac nhung giong ca\' ton lai dupe trong moi truong nong va ngap nucrc .
Tieu vimg song Me C6ng dugc xem la khu vuc de bi l6n thuong cao boi cac yeu to: luong thirc va ihuc pham. da dang sinh hoc. nguon nuac. he sinh thai \en bien. sire khoe con nguoi va suy thoai dk. Dieu nay cho thay mot \ien canh bat Igi doi voi co hoi phat trien cua ceic nuoc trong khu vuc. Nhirng ban che trong vice thich nghi vai biln d6i khi hau. bao gom ca nhirng ban chi vl vat chat va lai chinh. xung dpi noi bp trong khi chien luge thich nghi co hieu qua. bao gim phat trien va nang cap he thing lh6ng tin. tang cuong c6ng tac phong benh dich. xay dung nang lire cua cac cong ding dia phuong. thiic day thich nghi vai ihay
Change variability: a Case Study in the Vientiane Plain. Lao PDR. in Economv and Environment program for Southeast Asia , Febuarv 2008.
'^ Tlioeun H.C. (2008): Vulnerability and .\dapiioii Assessent in Cambodia, in Economv and Environmciil Program for Southeast Asia . Febuarv 2008.
' ' . M S B (2007): Strategic Framework for Suhregional Coperaiion in .Agriculture 2006-2010. Asian Development Bank, Manila.
Nhdng van dS K I N H T E V A C H I N H TR! T H E G l O l So 1 (153) 2009 2.^
An ninh luong thuc d Ti§u viing Me Cong mo' rong. Nguyin Qu6 Nga
d6i m6i truong cua tat ca cac mire dp phat trien.
hoi nhap khu vijc va quan ly rirng ben viing.
Chi phi va Igi ich ciia thay d6i khi hau o cac nuac trong khu vuc Tieu viing song Me C6ng kh6ng dong deu. Mot so nghien cim do luong miic dp anh huong ciia muc nuoc bien dang cao va danh gia chi phi Igi ich ciia viec thich nghi voi hien tugng nay cho thay, cac gia dinh Thai Lan o quan Bang Khun Thian phai mat khoang 23% thu nhap trung binh ciia hp, khoang 3.130 USD, cho viec thich nghi voi viec dat ven bien bi ngap va xoi mon. Nguoi dan o day da sir dung ba chien luge chinh de d6i pho voi bien d6i khi hau: bao ve (nhu diing ke da, tuong ngan bang tre va ciing c6 de dieu), tranh va nha o. M6i hp da ap dung hon mot bien phap. trong do bien phap bao ve dugc sir dung nhieu nhat.
Hon the nira. dien tich bj ngap trung binh khoang 0.9 ha/ hp dan. chiem 8% dien tich nu6i tr6ng Ihiiy san ciia hp. Sir trg giiip ciia chinh phii cho viing bi ngap hoac xoi mon la xay dung cac ke da. dieu nay that su kh6ng co hieu qua cao. va giiip da thiet hai do Iu'^\
0 Viet Nam, viec thich nghi voi miia lii 6 D6ng bang song Ciru Long mang lai Igi ich da dang nang cao dang ke nguon sinh ke ciia cu dan khu vuc. Vi du nhu nguoi nong dan tr6ng Ilia gao 6 D6ng bang S6ng Ciru Long ciia Viet Nam CO the tr6ng nhieu ban hai vu tren dien lich bj ngap nuoc bang viec sir dung phuong phap tiep can tr6ng cay tren lu. trong khi nguoi nu6i t6in c6 the thu dugc Igi nhuan tir 22 den 44 trieu d6ng Viet Nam tren 1 ha. cao bon ba lan so \ oi tr6ng liia. Nhirng nguoi nu6i ca da tron va luon qu\' m6 nho ciing thu dugc Igi nhuan cao. Lgi nhuan thu dugc tir trong sen va cii au
Cling tir 10 den 12 trieu Viet Nam dong tren mot hec ta. cao hon gap hai can so voi trong lua.
Nhirng nguoi trong nam ciing co thu nhap rong khoang 560 nghin dong tren 100 m2. Ngoai nhirng lgi ich kinh te. each thtic san xuat nong nghiep dua vao miia lii ciing tao ra nhieu viec lam cho nguoi dan dia phuong. Lfoc tinh co khoang 406.937 viec lam da dugc tao ra trong miia lii nam 2005, trong do co 47.000 viec dich vu dua vao miia lii. Vi vay, each thirc thich nghi vai bien d6i khi hau ciia nguoi dan dia phuong quan trpng trong viec d6i pho voi nhiing dien bien kho luong cua thoi tiet .
Tir kinh nghiem ciia cac nuoc cho thay chien luge thich nghi rieng le tirng ca nhan, kh6ng CO chien luge cua tap the, co the kh6ng phai la mot giai phap t6t, vi nhirng anh huong xau se xay ra neu nguoi lang gieng kh6ng xay dung va duy tri he thong bao ve ciia hp. Truong hgp 6 Thai Lan cho thay. nguoi n6ng dan ca the chuyen sang lam nghe khac do hp thieu kien thirc va ky nang chuyen nghiep. Dieu nay giai thich tai sao n6ng dan san sang tra cao cho cac cong trinh bao ve ciia hp vi hp kh6ng co lira chon nao khac. De he th6ng bao ve nay co hieu qua, can xay dung dap chan toan bp vinh thugng cua Thai Lan. Do do boat dong phii hgp tren mire dp cap qu6c gia va chinh quyin dia phuang la can thiet*
"' .larungrattanapong R., Manasboonphempool A. (2008):
Aihiptation Strategies for Coastal Erosion/Jlooding: a Case Study of the Communuties in Bang Khun Thian District. Bangkok. In Economv and Environment Prouram for Southeast Asia , Febuarv 2008.
Nguyen V . K . (2008): The Economic and Social Benefits of Flood - Base Livehoods in Vietnam's Mekong Delta: a case study in .An Giang province, in Economy and environment program for Southeast Asia. Febuarv 2008.
24 Nhdng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TR! THE GICJl So 1 (153) 2009
