Cac nhan to anh hu'dng den gia trj san lu'cmg nong nghiep
tai huyen Cai Lay, tmh Tien Giang
NGO THANH PHONG*
Torn dt
Nghiin cffu nham ddnh gid cdc nhdn to dnh hudng den gid tri sdn lU0ig ngdnh nong nghiep cua huyen Cai Lay, iinh Tien Giang. Dua tren dieu tra phong vdn 120 nong ho thudc 4 xd tren dia bdn huyen Cai Lay, tdc gid da sff dung hdm sdn xudt Cobb - Douglass de ddnh gid ldc dong c&a cdc nhdn td de'n gid tri sdn luang ngdnh nong nghiep cua nong hg trin dia bdn Huyen.
Kit qud nghien cffu cho thdy, cd 6 nhdn id bao gom: Chi phi sdn xudt; Lao dong; Di$n tich ddt sdn xudt; Tii'p can khuyi'n nong; Tiiu thu sdn phdm qua hop dong; Sff dung gidng mdi diu tdc dong de'n gid tri sdn luang cua ngdnh nong nghiep huy$n Cai Lay. Trong do, nhdn to Chi phi sdn xudt cd tdc dong mgnh nhdt. Con nhdn to Sff dung gidng mdi vd Tieu thu sdn pham qua hap dong luy cd tuang quan den sdn luang sdn xudt cua ngdnh, nhung mffc do tdc ddng Id khdng ddng ke.
Tit khoa: Cai Lay. hdm sdn xudt Cobb - Douglass, tdc dong, nhdn to dnh hudng Summary
The study aimed to assess faclors affecting the value of agricultural production in Cai Lay district, Tien Giang province. Data was collected from 120 households in Cai Lay district.
Cobb - Douglass production function was used lo assess the impacts of faclors on agricultural production of household. The results discovered 6 factors, which are Production cost; Labor;
Area of production land; Access to agricultural extension; Product consumption through contracts; Adoption of new varieties. In particular. Production cost has the strongest impact.
The factors of Adoption of new varieties and Product consumption through contracts are correlated with the production output, bul their impacts are negligible.
Keywords: Cai Lay, Cobb - Douglass production function, impact, influential factors
Gldi THIEU ndng nghiep tren dia ban huyen Cai Lay trong thdi gian ldi.
Huyen Cai Lay nam d phia Tay tinh Tiln Giang,
la mdt trong nhffng dia ban cd nhieu dieu kidn thuan CO Sd LY THUYET VA PHL/ONG ldi cho phdt triln ndng nghiep ciia Tinh. Quy hoach PHAP NGHIEN COlJ
phdt trien kinh te - xa hpi huyen Cai Ldy den nam
2020, dinh hffdng de'n nam 2030 da xdc dinh Cai Ldy C d s d l y thuyet
la huydn nong nghiep trpng diem cua Tinh ve kinh t l Phdt triln ndng nghiep nhdm gia tdng vffdn vd lua tiieo hffdng gia tang hieu qua, cha't Itfdng hieu qua san xud't, ddp tfng yeu cau cai ndng san, vdi muc tieu tdc dp tang gid tri san xud't binh thien ddi sdng ndng dan ludn la va'n de quan 10 nam thdi ky 2021-2030 khoang 6,8%-7,3%/ dtfdc nhieu nha khoa hpc quan tam va ndm. Trong dd, khu vtfc ndng nghiep tang 3,6%-3,7%/ nghien ctfu. Bakhsh vd cdng stf (2005) ndm vd din nam 2030, khu vtfc ndng nghiep chie'm trong nghien ctfu "Cdc nhdn id' ^nh 49%-54,2% trong cd cd'u san xua't tren dia ban loan htfdng de'n ndng suat bdng: Nghien cffff Huyen (UBND huyen Cai Lay, 2018). Tuy nhien, de trtfdng hdp Sargodha. Pakistan", nhdm datdtfdc muc tidu tren, can ddnh gia nhulig nhan tddnh tdc gia da sff dung ham sdn xua\ Cobb htfdng den gid tri san Itfdng ndng nghiep cua Huyen, - Douglass de ddnh gid tdc dpng cua cdc tff dd, de xud't giai phap de Ihiic day qud trinh san xua't nhdn td dau vao den san ltfdng. Ke't qua
'ThS., Trudng Dai hpc Tien Giang
Ngdy nh$n bdi: 30/6n020; Ngdy phdn bi?n: 17/08/2020; Ngdy duyet ddng: 21/08/2020
1 0 6 Ku,h,.,.„^bao
BANG 1: CAC BIEM VA HE SO DGMG TRONG MO HINH PHAN TICH
^ • A n bi€ii va cac h$ sS Y. Gii tri san lu'dng X,: Chi phi san xuat X,: Lao ddng X,: Dien tich d^t san xuat D,: TiS'p can khuyS'n nong D,: TiSu thu s^n phim qua hdp dong
D,: Sft dung giong nu3i A,: Cdc nhan t6'khac P (i = 1 - 4)' he s6 tu-tJng quan
D i S n ^
Gia tri san xua't cua nhom ho thu du'dc trong n3m (ngSn dong/hg/ha) Tong chi phi san xuat irong nam cua ho (ngan dong/ho) So lu'dng lao dgng cua h6 tham gia vao san xuat (ngUSi) Dien tich da't cua ho s&dung vao san xuat (m-|
Khong tiep can khuyen nong = 0, Co tiep can khuye'n nong = 1 Khong tieu thu san pham qua hdp d6ng = 0; C6 tieu thu san pham qua hdp dong = 1
Khong su" dung giong mdi = 0; C6 sCf dung giong mdi = 1 Ket cau ha tang, cd che chinh sich...
Ph^n dnh miJc do tac dong cua cac bien doc lap de'n bien phu thuoc
D^u ky v^ng + + + + + + +
N g u o n : Tac gia tdng hdp
cho thay, cac nhan id: Gido due, Phan bon, Khdu Idm dai dd gdp phan mang lai nang sua'l bdng cao hdn cho cac trang trai dtfdc Id'y y kien.
Mumin va cdng stf (2012) khi nghien ctfu "Cdc nhan td anh htfdng den sdn Itfdng bdng d khu vtfc phia Bac Ghana"
da sff dung ham Cobb - Douglass de phan tich. Ket qua chi ra cac nhan to' quyet dinh dang ke de'n sdn Itfdng bdng d khu vtfc nghien ctfu, bao gdm: Tmh irang gido due cua ndng dan; Kinh nghidm;
Quy mo ttang trai; Phan bdn; Hat gidng;
Lao dpng. Tff do, nhdm tdc gia de xua't mgt sdgiai phdp gdp phan nang cao san ltfdng bdng tai dia phtfdng.
d Viet Nam, cung cd mot sd nghien ctfu lien quan de'n nang sud't ndng nghidp.
Diln hinh nhtf: Ttf Thai Giang va cdng stf (2012) vdi nghidn cffu "Sff dung ham sdn xud't Cobb - Douglass phan tich tdc d6ng cua cdc nhdn to' dau vao ddn ndng sua't ca phe tinh Dak Ldk". Nghien cu\i da cho tiia'y, nang sud't cd phe chiu anh htfdng bdi nhieu nhan td dau vdo, nhff:
Dilu kien ttf nhien; Vd'n; Gidng; Phan bdn; Lao dpng; Trinh dp lao dpng.
Phtf(ftig phap nghian cihi Dl tiitfc hidn nghien ctfff, tdc gia da tiln hdnh dilu tra phong va'n 120 hd san xuat ndng nghidp thudc 4 xa cua huyen Cai Ldy tiieo nguydn t^c mdi viing san xud't chpn ra 2 xa, cu thl: Viing san xud't phia Nam Id, bao gdm: xd Long Trung vd xa Tam Binh; Vung sdn xud't phia Bdc Id, bao gdm: xa Thanh Ldc va xa Phu Ctfdng. Nghidn ctfu dffdc thtfc hien trong ndm 2019.
Nghien ctfu da sff dung phffdng phdp phan tich hdi quy da biln dffa vdo ham san xud't d l xdc djnh md'i iffdng quan
Economy and Forecast Review
BANG 2: KET QUA liOC LtfONG HO HINH HO! Q(IY GIA TRI SAN LfftjNG NGANH NONG NGHIEP HUYgN CAI L^Y Sd'nilu(n)
H$ so xac dinh (R^) H^ sS^xac dinh da di^u chinh (R^) Gia tri ki^'m djnh Prob (F - statistic)
120 0,819 0,809 0,000 riguon Ke't qua nghien CLTU cua tac gm giffa cac nhan t6' dau vao tie d6ng den gii tri sdn lycfng nganh nong nghiep cija nong ho. Di/a vao ngiion so ligu di^u tra cac mo hinh san xuat cua nongho de phan tich mo'i quan he tac dong ciia cac nhan to den gii tri san lifdng nganh nong nghiep ctia ho.
Ham san ll/dng co dang ham Cobb - Douglass:
Y = a.x.f'.e'"
Trong dd,
Y: Gia tri sjn IKcIng nganh nong nghiep ctia ho (bid'n phlj thupc)
X: Bie'n cac nhan to dau vao
Him Cobb - Douglass dtrcic giai bing phifong phap logarit hda hai ve. Ong dung ham Cobb - Douglass \io nghien ci!u xay diing mo hinh hoi quy trong dinh gii cac nhan to tac dong de'n gia tri san ItrOng nganh nong nghiep d huyen Cai Lay. dtf kie'n co 6 bien doc lap X, giai thich cho bie'n phu thuoc Y (trong do c6 3 bien dinh lirong va 3 bie'n gia), mo Mnh phan tich gii tri san luang nganh nong nghiep co dang nhU sau:
'LnY = A„ + l>,LnX +II^X,+ ll^nX,+ D,+ D^ + D, Cac bie'n va he so dung trong mo hinh phan tich Cli the S Bang 1.
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU
Ph9n ti'ch mo hinh h6i quy gia tri san liiting nganh n8ng nghiap huy$n Cai LSy
Tren CO sd phan tich cic nhan to dnh hiTdng den gia tn san lirdng nganh nong nghiep huyen Cai Lay tinh Tien Giang. sii: dung phan mem kinh Ii^ liTdng Eviews
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BANG 3: KET QOA tTdC LtfpNG BIEN GIA TR! SAN LrfONG NGANH NONG NGHIEP HGYEN CAI LAY C£c bi^n giai thich
a: Hang so
l.LnX, (Chi phi sin xuat)
2. LnXj (Lao dong)
3. LnXj (Di6n tich dat san xuai)
4. DJ (Tifi^p can khuyen nong)
5. Dj(Tieu thu san ph^m qua hdp dong)
6. DJ (Su'dung giong mi3i)
H$ sSh6i quy 1,817,760 (3,24916) 0.439466 (21.5960) 0,181016 (4,14707) 0,148825 (3,82959) 0,128244 (4,09806) 0,022785 (9,54038)
<M tri I d ^ dtnh 0,0015
0,0000
0.0001
0,0002
0,0021
0,0000
0,025905 j 0,0054 (4,30211)1
Ght cbu: sd'Irong ngodc Id gid trj cua t • stat
N g u o n ' Ket qua nghien cu'u cua tac gia
de xff ly, ke't qua ffdc IfftJng md hinh hdi quy thu dffdc nhff Bang 2.
Tie'p dd, tac gia tie'n hanh phan tich cdc bien gid tri san Iffdng nganh ndng nghiep huyen Cai Lay. Ket qud Bdng 3 cho thay, cdc gia tri kiem dinh cua cdc bid'n Iffdng ffng deu cd y nghia.
Nhff vdy, md hinh hoi quy cd cac bien nhff sau:
LnY = 1,818 + 0,439LnX, + O.lSlLnX^ + 0,149LnX^
+ 0.128D,+ 0.023D^ + 0,026Dj Mpt so' nh$n xet
Trong 6 nhan td'cd lien quan dd'n gia tri san Iffdng nganh ndng nghiep dffdc lffa chon dffa vao md hinh phan tich, ca 6 nhdn to' diu cd quan he vdi gid tri san Iffdng nganh ndng nghiep d huyen Cai Lay (tinh Tien Giang). Cu t h l nhff sau:
Thff nhdt, nhan to Chi phi san xua'l cua hd Id quan trgng nha't, cd vai trd quye't dinh de'n gid tri sdn Iffdng cua ngdnh ndng nghiep. He sdco dan ciia Clii phi sdn xua't (P^,) la 0,439, nghia la khi cdc nhan tdkhdc trong md hinh dffdc gia dinh khdng thay ddi, nd'u quy md d^u tff vdn cua hd tang ldn 1 %, thi gid tri san Iffdng se tang 0,439%.
Thff hai. nhan id' Lao ddng ddng vai trd quan trong thff hai de'n gia tri san Iffdng ciia ngdnh. Hd sd hdi quy ([3,) cd gid tri la 0,181, nghia la khi sd' Iffdng lao ddng ciia ho tdng len 1 %, cac nhan to' khac gia dinh la khdng ddi, tlii gid tri san Iffdng se tang 0,181%.
Thff ba, nhan id' Dien tich da't san xua't cua hd cd quan he vdi gia tri sdn Iffdng nganh ndng nghidp. He so'hdi quy (P^,) cd gid tri la 0,149, nghia la khi quy md da't ciia hd tdng len 1%, cdc nhdn td'khac dffdc gia dinh khdng doi, thl gia tri san Iffdng se tang 0,149%.
Thff tu, viec de'p can vd ffng dung nhffng tiln bd khoa hpc ky thuat thdng qua nhffng buoi td chffc khuyen
ndng cd vai trd quan trpng dd'i vdi gid ^ | san Iffdng nganh ndng nghidp- H$ so hdi quy cua nhan td Tie'p can khuye'n ndng cd gid tri dffdng khd Idn (0,128). Dieu nay cho tha'y, khuye'n ndng cd vai trd khd ldn giup nang cao gid tri san Iffdng ngdnh ndng nghiep cua dia phffdng.
Thff ndm, nhan to' Sff dung gid'ng mdi cd tffdng quan rd't it trong md hinh (vdi he sd hdi quy la 0,026) la do chd't Iffdng gid'ng mdi ndng dan dang sff dung khdng cao, ddn den sff khdc biet ve san Iffdng so vdi hd sff dung gid'ng thdng thffdng khdng ddng ke.
Thff sdu, nhan td Tieu thu san phdm qua hdp ddng cung cd tac dpng dl^n gid tri san Iffdng nganh nong nghidp dia pliffdng. Tuy nhien, mffc dp tdc ddng Id khdng ldn. He sdhdi quy cua nhdn tdndy cd gid tri dffdng la 0,023, nghia la neu hd cd tieu thu san pham qua hdp ddng, trong khi cdc nhdn td khdc dffdc gia dinh la khdng ddi, thi gid tri san Iffdng cua hd cao hdn 0,023% so vdi hd khdng lieu thu san pham qua hdp ddng.
KET LU-3iN VA HAM Y CHINH SACH K^t luSn
Kit qua nghien cffu cho tha'y, cd 6 nhan tdanh hffdng den gia tri san Iffdng cQa nganh ndng nghiep huydn Cai Lay bao gom: Chi phi sdn xuat; Lao dpng;
Dien tich da't san xua't; Tie'p can khuyen ndng; Tieu thu san pha'm qua hdp ddng;
Sff dung gid'ng mdi. Trong do, nhan td Chi phi san xual cho ndng nghiep cd tdc ddng ldn nha'l den gia tri san Iffdng ciia nganh. Con nhan td' Sff dung gid'ng mdi va Tieu thu san pham qua hdp dong tuy cd tffdng quan den gia tri san Iffdng cua ngdnh, nhffng mffc dd ldc dpng Id khdng ddng ke.
Ham y chmh sach
De gdp phan thtic day gia tdng gia tri san Iffdng ngdnh ndng nghiep cua huyen Cai^Lay, trong thdi gian tdi, tac gid de xuat mdl sd giai phdp, nhff sau:
Mot Id. ddp ffng nhu cdu vay vdn sdn xudt nong nghiep. Thffc t l cho thay hien nay, ndng ddn tiep can vdi vay von'ngdn hdng rat kho khan, bdi cdc thu tuc vay vdn phffc tap. Do dd, Nha nffdc cung nhff cdc ngan hang can nghien cffu ddn gidn hda cdc thu tuc va\ vdn.
Cdn ddi vdi cdc ndng ho, d n hen kit hinh thdnh nhffng dau mdi (nhir- hdp tac xd ndng nghiep, hoi nong dan. ) d l vay
108
vdn dffdc thudn ldi hdn, ddng thdi, cung giup cdc ngan hdng trong viec cho vay vdn, quan ly vd'n vd gidi ngdn nhanh nguon vdn de'n vdi ngffdi ndng dan.
Hai Id, ddo tgo vd ndng cao chdt lumg lao dong. Theo dd, Huyen can tang cffdng cdng tdc boi dffdng, md cdc Idp ddo lao nang cao tnnh dp tham canh trong san xud't cho cdc ndng hd, dac biet Id cdc ldp tai vffdn de cdc ndng hd tan mat, tdn tay thffc hanh nham cung cap day du kiln thffc, ky ndng trong vd cham soc. Khuyin khich cdc ndng hd tich cffc hgc lap ndng cao nhdn thffc de tao nen tdng dp dung nhffng tie'n bd khoa hpc, ky thudt vao qua trinh san xuCt. Ben canh d6, can cd nhffng chinh sdch khuye'n khich cdc cdn bd ndng nghiep lam viec tai dia phffdng de phuc vu sdn xua't cho ngffdi dan.
Ba la, tdng cUdng khd ndng ffng dung khoa hgc. cong nghi trong sdn xudt nong nghiep. Khoa hpc cdng nghe da trd thanh lffc Iffdng trffc tie'p d l nang cao hieu qud va nang sua't Iao dpng. Khoa hpc cong nghd d day dffdc hieu la ca trong sdn xuat, trong cung ffng vat tff san xua't (nhff: gid'ng vdt nudi, cay trdng...) vd sau thu hoach. Nlu chu the san xua't khdng c6 gid'ng cdy trdng, vat nudi lot se dan de'n ndng sud't, chd't Iffdng san phd'm k^m, san pha'm se khd tidu thu, tham chi khong tidu thu dffdc. Do dd, de hoat dpng san xud't, kinh doanh ciia cac ndng h6 sdn xud't dat hidu qua kinh te cao hdn, ve mat khoa hpc cdng nghd, thi can nhdp khau cdc loai gidng cay trong, vdt nudi phii hdp vdi dieu kien cua dia phffdng.
D6ng thdi, ddi mdi gid'ng cdy trdng, vdt nudi, cdng nghd che' bie'n, tang cffdng cdng tdc cham sdc, bdo vd cay trong, vat nu6i, dp dung cdng nghe sau thu hoach.
cdc bien phdp bao ve va tang dp phi nhieu cua da't vd bdo ve ngudn nffdc.
Ben canh dd. Huyen can thffc hien quy hoach dau tff phdt trien cac vffdn ffdm giong cay trdng vd cdc cd sd san xua't con gid'ng hoac hd trp cd dieu kien san xud't gid'ng de dam bao gidng tdt, gid'ng cd cha't Iffdng cao; Khuyen khich chu the sdn xud'l gdp vdn vao quy hd trd phdi triln khoa hpc, ky thudt dp dung vdo san xua'l va lam dich vu ky thuat cho cac ndng hp trong viing.
Ngoai ra, t l chffc dich vu ky thu|l, nhff: dich vu gid'ng, dich vu bao ve thffc vdt, thii y... theo nhieu hinh thffc, khodn gpn khau bdo ve, khodn theo cdng doan dich vu. Nghidn cffu chuyen ddi cd cd'u cay trdng thich nghi hdn vdi dieu kien bie'n doi khi hau dien ra tren dja bdn.
Bdn Id, tdng cudng vd xd hoi hda cong ldc khuyi'n nong. Can tdng cffdng cdng tac khuyd'n ndng thdng qua cdc chffdng trinh, nhff: chffdng tnnh khuyen ndng, chffdng trinh thdng tin kinh le. kie'n thffc ndng nghidp...
trdn cdc phffdng tien thdng tin dai chung d l ngffdi ndng dan nam bat v l cac ky thuat canh ldc mdi, gdp phan ndng cao hieu cay trdng, vat nudi.
Ben canh dd, trong dilu kien ngudn kinh phi cd ban, thi can day manh cdng tdc xd hdi hod khuyen ndng, nham huy ddng ngudn lU'c xa hdi, phuc vu cdng tdc chuyen giao cdng nghe mdi den ngffdi ndng dan, nang cao trinh dp kie'n thffc giiip san xua't hipu qud hdn.
Ndm Id. ldng cudng lien ke'l "bon nhd". Thffc tien nhffng ndm gan day cho thd'y, mdi hen ke'l "bd'n nhd"
(Nha nffdc - Doanh nghidp - Nha khoa hpc - Nhd ndng) thdng qua hdp ddng kinh te' d cdc dia phffdng da bffdc dau mang lai nhffng ldi ich thie't thffc. Nhd dd da gan thi trffdng tieu thu ndng sdn vdi san xua't ndng nghiep, gan san xua't vdi khoa hpc; thtic day hinh thdnh cac hdp tdc xa, dai dien cho ndng dan ky ke't hdp ddng tidu thu san pha'm vdi doanh nghidp; tao thffdng hieu ndng sdn tren thi trffdng trong nffdc va xua't khau. Do dd, can tang cffdng lien ke't san xud't vd lieu thu ndng san hang hda de cd the mang lai nhffng ldi ich to ldn md lien ke't "bd'n nhd" dd mang lai cho cdc dia phffdng.Q
TAI H t U THAM KHAO
1. UBND huyen Cai Lay (2018). Quyi't dinh so 1334/QD~UBND. ngdy 28/5/2018 vi "Quy hogch phdi triin kinh te- xd hoi huyen Cai Lay den ndm 2020. dinh hudng din ndm 2030"
2. Tff Thai Giang, Nguyln Phijc Thp (2012). Sff diing ham san xua't Cobb - Douglass phan tich tdc d6ng ciia cdc nhan td dau vao den ndng sua't cd phe tinh Dak Lak, Tgp chi Kinh tivd Phdt triin.
So chuydn san. thdng 8/2012. 90-93
3. Dffdng Thi Ai Nhi (2019). Cdc yiu tddnh hUdng de'n phdt trien sdn xudt nong nghiip cua hg nghkod huyen Ldk. linh Ddk Lak. truy cap iff http://tapchiconglhuong.vn/bai-viet/cac-yeu-to-anh- huong-den-phat-trien-san-xuat-nong-nghiep-cua-ho-ngheo-o-huyen-lak-tinh-dak-lak-67201.htm
4. Bakhsh, K., Hassan, I., Maqbool, A. (2005). Faclors Effecting Cotton Yield' A case sudy of Sargodha (Pakistan), Journal of Agriculture & Social Sciences. 1(4). 332-334
5. Mumin, Y. A. et al (2012). Determinants of seed cotton output evidence from the northern region of Ghana, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. 3(9), 2222-2855
Economy and Fog 109
