Kinh te Vi^t Nam d ^ khoi sdc sau dich COVID-19
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Hoc vien Ngan hang, P h ^ vifin BSc Ninh
Theo bio eio mdi nhit m i Ngin hing Thi gidi (WB) tgi Vigt Nam viia cdng bd vi cip nhgt tinh hinh kinh t i VI mO Viit Nam thing 6/2020, cic chuyin gia WB d i dua ra nhin dinh, kinh te ViOt Nam bit diu khdi sic trd l^i. M viy, nin kinh t i vin chua hdi phuc hoin toin.
1. Kinh te vl mo Vl^t Nam co gi mbl?
C5c hogt dOng kinh t i Uong nude khdi sie Ud Igi, nhung tii khoin kinh t i ddi ngogi vi ngin sich yiu di.
Of thi. phin tieh eua WB cho thiy, sau kfii bj inh hudng boi gian cich xi hOi Uong Uiing 4/2020, ehi so sin xuil cOng nghiip (IPP) Uiing 5 bit ting 11% so vdi Uiing 4, r^ung vin Uiip hon khoing 3% so vdi Uiing 5/2019.
Doanh sd bin li cung phyc hdi mgnh vio thing 5.
V$n lk\ hcinh khich vi hing hda ting lin lupt 116% va 32% trong thing 5 so vdi thing 4, nhd c i c biin phip h<in chi di Igi Uong nude dupe timg bude ndi Idng tir ngSy 23/4. Tinh trgng hdi phyc dupe minh ehiing qua cW sd di Igi cua Google vdi miic ting tir i m 30% tir giila Uiing 4 Iin i m 5% trong tuin hi 25/5 so vdi cic mtfc trudc djeh COVID.
M$c dii kim nggch xuit khiu hang hda eua Viit Nam tang khoing 5% trong thing 5 so vdi thing 4, nhting vin thip hon 5,5% vdi eung ky n i m trudc, do sue cku bin ngoii yiu di va cd Uii do mdt sd gian dogn trong cic chudi cung ung loan ciu. Kim ngach xuSt kh^u cic mil hing thim dung lao dOng ehti ehdt ciia Viit Nam nhu may m i c v i giiy da giam 14% va 5% (so cCing ky nim hudc) trong khi cac mil hing xufit khiu cdng nghi, nhu diin thoai Uidng minh,
^m 9% (so ciing ky nim tnjde).
Ddng vdn diu tu tryc tiep nude ngoai (FDl) Uep tuc
<W vio Viit Nam trong Uiing 5 nhung vdi tde dO ehim fion so vdi bao cio eho Uiing 4. Trong 5 Uiang diu nam 2020, tdng gii tri FDl cam kit lin den 13.91>- USD
• vin d mue cao nhung thip hon 17% so vdi cung ky nam Uudc.
Tin dyng phin bd cho n i n kinh t i udc ting khoang llWb so vdi eting ky nim trudc hong 4 thing dau n i m 2020. Mgc dii miic ting trudng Uin van chua bing nSm Uudc dd, nhung hiin dang cao ban 3 lan so vdi
•tog Uudng GDP hong eung ky. Chinh lieh Uin phan
^ chinh sach ndi long tiin t i va tin dyng nhim ung ph6 khiing hoing COVID.
2. Nen kinh te van chua hdi phuc hoan loan Theo WB. ehi sd gii Uiu diing trong thing 5 it biin dOng, nhd dd ty Ii Igm phit so vdi cting ky nim Uudc ehi d mue 2,4%, Uiip hon so vdi miic 2,9% trong Uiing 4 va 6,4% trong Uiing 1/2020. Gii c i chimg Igi chii yiu do siic ciu luong thpe thpe phim trong nude giim di.
gii diu Uid giim Uiip ky lye trgn thl trudng qudc ti, giy higu ling lan tmyin din gii xing diu trong nude.
Khu vpc doanh nghiip nude ngoii bit diu bj ^nh hudng do sue eiu trin toin eiu yiu di. Trong khi dd, Chinh phii Uip Igc su dgng cic chfnh sieh lii khda vi Uin ti de bii d i p cho tic dOng tii chinh ciia khiing hoing vims corona, din din tin dgng ngin hing Uong nude ting Uudng eao vi sd Uiu ngin sieh sgt giim nghigm hpng.
Phin Ueh eho thiy, tdng thu ngin sieh ciia Chinh phii trong 4 thing diu nim giam 5,9% so vdi ciing ky nim trudc. Giam thu Idn nhit dupe ghi nhin eho thui gii tri gia ting vi Uiui thu nhgp doanh nghigp, d muc lin lupt 9,3% va 7.3%. Do suy giim trong hogt dOng xuit nhip khau, sd thu tii thui liin quan din xuit nhip khau giam 19% (so eiing ky nim tmde). Thu nOi dia cdn giam mgnh hon vio thing 4, khi thu ngin sach nha nude giim gin 25% so vdi thing trudc, chf bing 65% so vdi Uiang 4/2019. Tdng eye Thui d i nhin dupe 90.000 don xin giin nop thui va Uin su dyng dit.
vdi tdng gia tn len din 26,2 ngan ty ddng.
Theo WB, sd lieu GDP quy dp kiin dupe c6ng bd diu thing 7 se giiip theo ddi tdt hon quy dgo kinh t i cua Viil Nam. Nhung cho dii sd liiu nhu thi nio, vin can luu y hon den khi ning tic dOng din lam phit do ndi Idng Uin te vi bOi chi ling cao do thu thui ehua hoan thanh chf tiiu.
Bin cgnh dd, hogt dOng kinh t i vin d mue thip hon nhieu so \di thdi ky trudc COVID. Khu vpc doanh nghiip nude ngoai bit diu bj inh hudng do sue ciu U-in toan eau yiu di. Trong khi dd. Chinh phii liep Igc sir dung eic chfnh sich tii khda vi tiin ti d i bii d i p
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N G H I £ N C U U cho tie dOng tii chfnh, din d i n tfn dgng ngin hang trong nude ting Irudng cao va sd thu ngin sieh sgt giim nghiim Upng. Sd Uiu GDP quy dp kiin dupe cdng bd diu Ihing 7 se giiip theo ddi idt hon quy dgo kinh t i ciia Viit Nam. nhung cho du sd liiu iihu t h i nio, ehung ta vin ein luu y hon d i n kha ning lac dOng din Igm phit do ndi Idng Uin t i vi bpi ehi tang cao do Ihu Ui Uiui chua hoin thanh chi Uiu d i u nim 2020. Mgc dti miic ling Uirdng Uin vin chua bing nim trudc dd, nhung hign dang eao hon ba Iin so vdi tang uudng GDP Uong eiing ky. Chinh lech Uin phin inh chfnh sich ndi long Uin t i vi tin dyng nhim ling phd khung hoing COVID.
Vio Uidi diim giua Uiang 5. NHNN cit giam ba muc lii suit ehinh (Iii suit tii c i p vdn, lii suit chao mua giiy td cd gii vi lii suit chli't khiu) d mire 50 diim CO bin mdi mue. Lii suit cho vay qua d i m trin tht tmdng liin ngin hing cung giam tir 6% xudng 5.5%, cdn u i n Iii suit Uin giii bing Uen ddng dupe giam 0,3-0,5 diim phin trim, tiiy theo ky hgn.
Chi sd gii tiiu diing CPI trong thing 5 ft biin dOng, nhd dd ty li Igm phit so vdi eung ky nim hudc chi d miic 2,4%, thip hon so vdi miie 2.9% Uong thing 4 v i 6.4% trong thing I nim 2020. Gia e i chiing Igi chii yeu do siic ciu luong thpe thpe phim trong nude giim d i . gii diu thd giim thip ky lue trin Uij Uudng qudc t i , giy hiiu ling lan tmyin d i n gii xing diu Uong nude.
Tdng thu ngin saeh ciia Chinh phii trong 4 thing d i u nim giim 5.9% so vdi ciing ky nim trudc. Giim thu Idn nhit dupe ghi nhin eho thui gia tri gia ting vi thui thu nhip doanh nghiip.
3. C6n(( ddng quoc te danh gia cao frlen vong phuc hoi Idnh te Viet Nam
Rd ring, Viit Nam d i phin ling nhanh va thinh cdng trong viic phdng. chdng djeh COVID-19. Theo eae chuyin gia kinh li, Viit Nam cd thi trinh dupe suy thoii kinh t i Uong nim 2020 nhd cic bign phip ngin djch COVID-19 k(p thdi.
Nhi kinh t i trudng vi chiu A tgi Oxford Economics Sian Fenner danh gii: "Viit Nam sg khdng Uinh dupe tie dOng lir Ihpc Ugng nhu ciu Ihe gidi ehim Igi. Tuy nhiin, chung tdi dp doin nin kinh t i Viit Nam se khdng roi vao suy thoii hoic ting trudng im".
Theo nhi kinh t i Fenner, nhd sdm i p dyng lenh hgn e h i biin gidi vi giin cich xi hOi. Vigt Nam d i trinh dupe Iin sdng Iiy nhiim Idn. Ngoai ra. kinh t i Viit Nam cdn hudng Ipi nhd chudi eung ling din dupe da dgng hda.
Trong khi dd, hing Un Bloomberg nhin djnh, kha ning "bit d i \ " ciia kinh te Viit Nam dupe khing d|nh khi qudc gia Ddng Nam A niy Ii mOt diim din ua thich ddi vdi cic nhi diu tu nude ngoii. Bing chiing Ii d i cd hon 12 ty USD vdn ding ky diu tu dupe Uiu hut riing trong 4 thing d i u nim 2020.
Mpt sd chuyin gia khing d|nh. n i n kinh t i Viil Nain ed Uii phyc hdi nhanh hon cie qude gia Ddng Nam A khic vio nim 2021, dgc biit niu c i c nude nhu My, Nhit Bin vi Uin mUih chiu Au (EU) ddng logt tii djch chuyin cic ehudi cung ung sau dgi djeh COVID-19.
Theo trang The Guaidia, khdng khd d i Uiiy ring, Vigt Nam dang cd nhOng co hOi hii'm tii COVID-19.
Chinh phii Vigt Nam vin cdn du khoing trdng cho cic chinh sich hd trp ting Uudng nOi bO-
Theo Uang Nikkei Asian Review, trong mOt Uii gidi den tdi, Vigt Nam mOt lin nua Igi trd n i n ndi bit rd ring. Tuy nhiin, d i duy tri sy Ida sing dang cd, Viil Nam phii hdi phpc kinh t i nhanh nhu kiim soit COVID-19.
Di phit Uiin kinh t i h i u COVID-19, mOI to duy mdi vi sdng ehung vdi djch binh c i n dupe hinh thinh vi ddi hdi ning lye thich nghi mdi cua mdi ein bO, cOng ddng doanh nghiip, ciing nhu timg ngudi din.
Vdi phuong ehim "Chdng djeh nhu chdng giic",
"Khdng d i ai bj bd Igi phfa sau" nhim c i hai mye Uiu:
chdng djch tdt d i b i o vi ngudi din, ddng Ihdi duy hi dn dinh kinh l i d i sin sing biit p h i khi dtch ling xudng, Chinh phu di, dang v i Uip tyc cd nhiiu chinh sich h6 Up tai chfnh-tin dgng eho DN v i ngudi din.
Cie chfnh sich nhu miin, giim lii suit vi co eiu Igi np; giin npp thui, Uin thui dit v i chim nOp BHXH, eung vdi c i c ehfnh sich an sinh khic, cy thi gdm cic gdi hd trp vi tiin te (dupe ning lin khoing 300.000 ty), gdi h6 trp vi tii khda (180.000 ty), gdi hd Up an sinh x i hOi (trin 62.000 ty), gdi h6 Irp gii diin (12.000 ty), gdi hd trp gii viin thdng (15.000 ty)... dupe ky vpng mang Igi hiiu qui Ueh cpc, giup DN vi ngudi din vupt khd khin do dgi djch.
Diy eung li Uidi diim biiu dgt Unh doin kit v i Uich nhigm cOng ddng; mdi DN vi ngudi d i n cin chung sue, ddng Idng eung Chinh phu nd lye vupt khd, dgt bing dupe mge Ugu kip uin. Hiin tgi, Chinh phii chua djt vin d i diiu chinh cic ehi Ugu k i hogch kinh ti-xi hOi 2020; dCi viy, Tdng egc Thdng kg cho ring GDP c i nim 2020 ting tnrdng 5% d i la mot Uiinh edng.
Viit Nam vin li mOt Uong nhiing qudc gia cd tdc do ting tmdng kinh t i nhanh nhil khu vpc DOng Nam A. DOng Iyc ting tnidng cua nin kinh t i vin l i ting Idp tmng luu ngiy eing tang va khu vuc kinh t i tu nhin ning dOng. Mdi hudng kinh doanh trong nude vin H f i ? A ' ! ' ^ H f t l f ^".x"^"^^ "^^^ " ^ '^'^^ ^hfnh sich de hd up hg thdng ddi moi sing tgo.
Ngiy 8/4,16 chfc Filch toUngs (Fi.ch) lh6ng b4o vi vMc gio nguyen xip h^ng Un nhi^m qufic gia cua Viet Nam 6 muc BB vi iiiu chinh thin v^ng sano rtn rtinh Filch du b i o Ai lang mrtmg Icinh li cua Viei N ™ nuav Irt l5i vio nam 2021, vdi GDP di, Uin la 7 3<^J'h cAu irong nutic vi nude ngoii d4n h6i phuc Ihen yn hu<Jng loin ciu vi khu vuc. Trifa vong duoe ^ 1 ^ / ^ ^ cho IhSy lie dOng leo Ihang cua dai d|ch C O M D T S «
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ntn Unh t i Viit Nam hong cie linh vpe xuat khiu vi du ^ cOng nhu siic ciu Uong nude yiu di. Xip hang oia Filch khing dinh viin cinh ting trudng mgjih me ho(« Uung hgn eua Viit Nam dpa ugn n i n ting kinh rf \1 md dn dinh. mue np chinh phu Uiip vi khu vye kinh ti ddt ngogi cd khi ning chdng ehju, bao gdm c i di/trii ngogi hdi d miic khi Idn.
Liftn quan tdi kinh l i Viil Nam, trong bing x i p hjng sdc khde lii ehfnh ciia 66 n i n kinh te mdi ndi oia The Economist, Viit Nam diing thu 12, ihuOc nh6m an toin sau djch COVID-19 nhd eae chi sd lii chinh 6n dtnh.
BSng xip hgng cOa tgp chf The Economist dya trgn
< chf sd siic mgnh tii chfnh, bao gdm np edng. np nu6c ngoii, chi phi di vay vi dp tni ngogi hdi. Theo dd.
hon 30 nin kinh t i mdi ndi dang ddi mgt vdi i p lye kin, ti nhit li Lebanon vi Venezuela.
Trong nhdm eic nin kinh t i an toin, Botswana dung dAu, Uip Uieo Ii Dii Loan vi Hin Qudc. Vigt Nam xip Uiu 12 sau Trung Qude vi Guatemala, nhung diing trudc Ba Lan vi Nigeria vdi eie ehi so np edng, npnudc ngoii, chi phi di vay vi dp tni ngogi hdi d i u ijmitc 6n djnh eho d i n mgnh. Viit Nam khdng cd chi stf nio UiuOc diin "bio dOng dd".
Ctic ti chirc qudc t i dy b i o ting trudng kinh l i cua Vigt Nam nim 2020 chi dgt miic 2,7% - 4,9% do n i n kinh ti bl tic dOng c i d phfa eung vi ciu. Tuy nhiin, cic ti chuc qudc t i vin dinh gii Viit Nam li mOt trong s6 it nude dgt dupe miic ting trudng duong v i c6dnh hudng eua dleh thip hem eie nude khie. Triin vpng kinh l i Viit Nam trong tmng hgn dupe dinh gii Ihujn Ipi dp nhu ciu trong nude v i xuil khiu vin d mirc cao.
i Thay doi hr duy de thich nghi vol tinh hinh mbl Thiit nghi. trong bdi cinh hiin nay, cin nhin dien vk lim siu sic hon nhimg thay ddi c i trong tu duy, Cling nhu Uong phuong thiic quin ly nha nude, quin fr! DN, Uong CO eiu kinh t i vt md v i vi md theo mpt t4m Uii "sdng chung vdi djch binh", thpe hiin "kinh doanh an toin".
Theo dd, cin gia ting hogt dOng va ling dyng chuyen ddi sd, phit triin kinh t i n i n ting v i eic dfeh vy phi tiip xuc Uuyin thdng, giim thiiu su gian dogn khi "gisn eich x i hOi". Ndi cieh khie, edng nghi thing Un vdi eic ling dgng hd trp lam viie tgi nha, hpe tiUc tuyin vi giap hing tin noi Ii nhiing hogt dpng rat cdn Uiiit c i Upng vi sau djch.
Viil Nam dang dupe eOng ddng Uii gidi dinh gia cao ck vi ning lye ddi phd vdi dai djch COVID-19 va ttfi Iyc duy Ui dOng lye ting irudng kinh te, bao dam ansinhxihOi.
G i ^ dde WB tgi Viit Nam Ousmane Dione eho
^ , Uin dudng Ud thinh mpt qude gia sd hiin dgi.
Wit Nam ein cii thien mOt sd vin de nhu: Xii ly Uuc
luyin phin km djeh vg edng, ed h i Uidng can cude sd ding Un eiy, cii Uiign nin ting hpc Upe tuyin cho hpe sinh; l i i ^ khi ning phin Uch du Ii$u Idn d i hd Up Uieo ddi vi dy b i o y ti; nil gpn vi Uiyc hiin hiiu qui c i e Uiu Uic hinh chinh d i diy nhanh giii ngin vdn d i u hr cdng vi ODA; phit triin ehuong Uinh bio Up xi hdi U-en n i n ling cdng nghi Uidng Un nhim liip cin cic ddi hrong d i tdn Uiuong vi cic DN d cic viing siu viing xa Uidng qua ehuyin Uin diin tu.
Theo chi dgo cua Chfnh phii, cae kich bin phyc hdi kinh t i hiu COVID-19 dang dupe xuc Uin xiy dpng dpa Uieo gii dinh thdi gian kit thuc dich COVID- 19. Tuy nhiin, mOt tu duy mdi vi sdng chung vdi dleh binh cin dupe hinh Uiinh vi ddi hdi ning Ipe thich nghi mdi eua mdi cin bO, eOng ddng DN. cQng nhu tung ngudi din
Khdng chi li Uim Ipc tii ehfnh, m i ehfnh sy linh hogt thfeh ting vdi th! trudng vi bdi cinh mdi vdi yiu ciu i p dyng cdng nghi mOt cieh nhanh nhgy, ting cudng hogt dOng thuong mgi diin tir, thanh toin ky thuit sd vi lim viic hi xa; sip xip Igi cic chudi eung ling toin eiu vi hudng nhiiu hon vio thl trudng trong nude sg giup Vigt Nam timg bude vupt qua dgi dich.
Die biit, dii bit Iuin kjeh bin nio Uil Viit Nam cflng cin tiep Ujc vi diy mgnh cii thign mdi uudng diu tu kinh docinh, logi bd thii tgc giy ehim tri, rudm ra, ring buOe, giim bdt thanh kiim Ua mOt sd vige khdng ein thiit trir uirdng hpp vi phgm phip luit; diy mgnh Uin dO giii ngin 700 nghin ty ddng diu tu cdng Uong nim 2020; i p dgng cdng nghi mdi vi kiim soil tinh trgng dOc quyin, Ipi ieh nhdm.
Chfnh sieh Uin ti cin cg thi, quyit ligt hon, vdi nhimg giii phip dupe lim rd hon trgn Unh thin nginh ngin hang ddng hinh eting DN qua viic hoin, giin np, giim lii suit, giam Ipi nhuin ciia bin thin cic ngin hang de bii d i p mOt phin cho DN. Khai thie tdt cae CO hOi mdi tir cic Higp djnh Thuong mai tp do. td chuc Uiyc hiin tdt thj Uudng trong nudcV.
Tai lieu tham khao
Giu on djnh kinh t i vi md trudc tic ddng cua djeh binh. hUp://tapchilaiehinh.vn/su-kien-noi-bat/giu-on- dinh-kinh-le-vi-mo-truoc-tae-dong-cua-dieh-benh- 322857.hUnI
Viit Nam s i viit tiip ciu chuygn Uiin ky hiu Covid-19? http://tapchitaiehinh.vn/su-kien-noi-bat/vi('t- nam-se-viel-liep-cau-ehuyen-than-ky-hau-covid 19- 322873.hUnl
Kinh t i Viet \ a m an loan sau dgi d|ch. ed thi khdi sic Ud Igi. hUp://baochinhphu vn/Kinh-le/Kinh-te-Viet- Nam-an-toan-sau-dai-dieh-co-lhe-khoi-sae-lro- lai/394829.vgp
