Nghiin ciru
PHAN BO KHONG GIAN MlfA ClTC TRI TREN 7 VUNG KHi HAU VIET NAM, GIAI DOAN 1961 - 2010
Thai Thi Thanh Minh, Nguyen Nggc Anh Trudng Dai hgc Tai nguyen va Mdi tmdng Ha Ndi Tom tat
Bdi bdo trinh bay noi dung ddnh gid phdn bo khong gian mua cue tri dim vdo so ngdy co luang mua tren 50 mm vd 100 mm. so ngdy mua lien luc, .so ngdy khong mua vd mua mot ngdy l&n nhdt ciia 143 tram tren Idnh tho Viel Nam, giai dogn 1961 - 20]0. Kit qud nghien ciiu chi ra so ngdy co lugng mua vugt nguang 50 mm chit yiu tap trung a cdc tdm mua l&n. nhu Bdc Quang vd Trd My roi vdo khodng 20 den 30 ngdy/ndm, .song cdc trung tdm it mua. so ngdy mua vuat nguang chi 2,6 ngdy/ndm nhu Phan Rang. So ngay co luang mua vugt nguang WO mm dao dong 0 den 12 ngdy/ndm, v&i tdm mua lan Bac Quang co so ngdy mua vugt nguang l&n nhdt, duai 0.4 ngdy/ndm a Tdy Bdc, Dong Bdng Bac Bg vd Nam Bo, duai 0,1 ngdy/
ndm thugc Dd Lgt, Lam Dong So ngdy mua lien tuc dao dgng mirc 5.5 den 24,2 ngdy/ndm. Khu viec co so ngdy mua lien tuc l&n nhdt tir Thanh Hoa den Tlma Thien Hue. so ngdy mua it nhdt tie Phii Yen den Binh Thuan. Tram co so ngdy mua lien tuc lan nhdl la Ddc Nong, Tdy Nguyen la 24,2 ngdy/ndm So ngdy khong mua lan nhdt thugc ve Ninh Thuan vd Binh Thuan vai 261 ngdy/ndm. Mua mot ngdy lan nhdt khong chi xudl hien a cac trung tdm mua lan, md cdn quan Irdc dugc hau hit cdc tram vdo thai ky miia mua.
Tit khoa: Cyc tri, eye doan; Miia mua; GIS; cac vimg khi hau cua Viet Nam.
Abstract
The spatial distributions of extreme rainfall in 7 climate regions of Vietnam during I96I - 2010period
The paper presents cm evaluation of Ihe spatial distribution of extreme rainfall using the number of rainfall days above 50 mm and 100 mm, the number of continuous rainfall days, the number of days without rainfall and the largest rainfall day from 143 stations in Vietnam during 1961 - 2010 period. The re.sults show that the number of rainfall days above 50 mm concentrate mainly in heavy rain centers such as Bac Quang and Tra My stations, which are about 20 to 30 days per year For less rain centers such as Phan Rang station, ihe number of rainfall days are under 2.6 days per year. The number of rainfall days above 100 mm fluctuates from 0 to 12 day per year Bac Quang heavy rain center has the highest number of rainfall days. The number of continuous rainfall days fluctuates from 5.5 to 24.2 days per year. The areas with the largest number of continuous rainfall days are from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue province while the area with the smallest ones are from Phu Yen to Binh Thuan province. The station with the largest number ofrairifall day of 24.2 days per year is Dak Nong located at central Highland. The number of days without rainfall is highest in Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan province (about 261 days per year). The largest rainfall day is observed not only in heavy rain centers, but also in most of the stations during rainy season.
Keywords: Extremes; Rainy season; GIS; Vietnamese climatic zones.
-, 99 Tap chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Moi tru&iig - So 20 - ndm 2018
Nghiin c&u 1. M d d a u
Mua la \ e u td bien ddng Idn theo klidng gian va thdi gian. Phan bd ve lugng mua phy thudc buc xa, dieu kien hoan luu va yeu td mat dem. Cac nghien ciru ve mua tai Viet Nam kha da dang [4. 5. 7, 8, 10. 11]. Cac nghien ciru tap trung phan tich xu the va muc do biin ddi mua theo thdi gian tren 7 vimg khi hau Viet Nam, thdng qua phan lich phuang trinh xu the, he sd Sen hoac he sd gdc A^ do lech chuan.
he sd bien thien....theo thdi gian Cac nghien cim tren the gidi tap trung phan tich cac chi sd cyc tri va cyc doan cua mua do WMO dua ra nam 1997. thdng qua chudi sd lieu quan trac tai tram, sd lieu dy linli Iheo kich ban. Tir dd, danh gia xu the bien ddi cyc tri va cyc doan mua thdng qua phan tich phuang trinh xu the. he sd gdc, xac suat xuat hien....
theo khdng gian \ a thdi gian.
Vay su khac nhau giiia mua cyc tri va mua cue doan la gi? Theo [5, 11] chi ra rang mdt dai lugng khi hau cyc tri la dai lugng ngau nhien ma tap hgp gia tri ciia nd la cac gia Iri cyc tri ciia bien khi hau. cdn gia tri khi hau cyc doan (cue doan khi hau) la tri sd ngudng (thudng sir dyng phan vi) de xac dinh sy kien khi hau cue doan. Mua cyc dai la gia tri lugng mua dat cyc dai, cue ti£u (ngay, thang, nam), cdn mua cyc doan la khi gia tri lugng mua cue dai vugt qua ngudng (phan vj 90%) hoac cyc tieu nam dudi ngudng (phan vi 10%). Bai bao nay trinh bay cac ket qua nghien cim. phan tich va danh gia phan bd mua cyc tri tren lanh thd Viet Nam giai doan tir 1961 den 2010 dya vao phuang phap thdng ke va ban dd thdng tin dia ly.
Trong dd, dac trung mua cyc tri dugc xem xet bao gdm sd ngay cd lugng mua tren 50 mm va 100 mm. s6 ngay mua 100 -
lien tuc, sd ngay khdng mua va mua mdt ngay Idn nhdt.
2. Cac nghien ciru t r o n g va ngoai nu'dc ve mira
Sy am len toan cau anh hudng tryc tiep den lugng mua [6]. Nhiet dp be mat gia tang, lam cho bdc hai tang cudng.
dan den ban han. Tuy nhien, nhiet dp klidng khi lang len T C , lugng hai nude trong khi quyen tang 7%. Day chinh la ngudn cung cap am cho boat ddng ciia ddi luu, xoay thuan nliiet ddi,... lam gia tang lugng mua. Ddi vdi vimg nhiet ddi va can nhiet ddi. Iugng mua bj chi phdi bdi nhiet dp mat nude bien (SST). su thay ddi cua SST trong dieu kien ENSO lam thay ddi phan bd mua. Trong khi [3]
sir dyng phan tich ciia 25 md hinh vdi kich ban RCP 8.5 muc dich md phdng dien mua cyc dai 5 ngay (RxSday), giai doan tir 1960 den 2010. Nhin chimg, md hinh CMIP5 nam bat dugc sy thay ddi Rx5day va cd xu the tang len 10%.
Theo [2] phan tich cap nliat chi sd lugng mua cyc doan dau the ky XX tir bd dij lieu HadEX2. Trong do, cac chi sd dugc xem xet bao gdm: Rxlday (mua cyc dai 1 ngay), R\5day (mua cyc dai 5 ngay). RIO mm (sd ngay mua tren 10 mm). R20 mm (sd ngay mua tren 20 mm), R95p (sd ngay am udt, tdng lugng giang thuy ngay thudc phan vi tren 95%).
R99p (sd ngay am udt cyc doan). Ket qua nghien cim chi ra, dien mua thay ddi, phan bd bat ddng nhat. Lugng mua Idn xuat hien nua phia ddng Bac My, Ddng Au. chau A va Nam My the hien thdng qua chi sd RIO mm, R95p. Day cung la hai chi sd the hien xu the tang trong 60 nam qua (tir 1951 d€n 2010). Cach lam tuang ty [9] dua ra nhiing thay doi g i n day cua cue tri khi hau ngay tai viing nui Qilian thudc Tay Bac Trung Qudc. Kel qua nghien cim chi ra, mua cyc doan cd
Tap chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vd Moi tru&ng -86 20- ndm 2018
Nghiin cuu xu the tang \'e lugng va sd ngay mua
Xu the tang chii yeu d cac dp cao Idn.
So ngay cd lugng mua Idn 10 mm (RIO mm) va 20 mm (R20 mm) co xu Xhk tang d 47 t r ^ va tap trung d cac khu vyc cao.
Tan suat mua d phan vi 95% (R95p) va 99 % (R97p) dugc ghi nhan tai 73 tj-ani.
Lugng mua cyc dai 1 ngay (Rxlday) va cyc dai 5 ngay (Rx5day) gia tang tai 80 tram. Song nhiing ngay mua lien tiep klidng the hien xu hudng ro rang va thdi ky am udl Uiang ddi dai, xudl hien hau het cac tram. Ddi vdi [1 ] su dung sd lieu cda 5948 tram quan trac toan cau de nghien cim sy bien ddi cua ciia Rx 1 day va RxSday. Ket qua nghien cim chi ra sy khdng cd sy thay ddi nhieu giira cac khu vuc vdi Rxlday ma chu yeu la phan bd RxSday tang d nam trung tam Hoa Ky va mien bac nude Nga, Canada cac thang chinli ddng (thang 12. 1 va 2), mi^n bac An Dp va mien nam Brazil vao thang miia xuan (thang 3, 4. va 5), ddng nam Hoa Ky va chau Au vao miia thu (thang 9.10 v a i l ) .
Nhieu cdng trinh nghien cuu trong nude cd lien quan den den lugng mua ngay cue dai idn ban 25 mm va 50 mm.
Trong dd. phai ke den nghien cuu cua [4] chi ra rang, nhirng ngay dat chi tieu mua Idn thudng xay ra trong thdi ky miia mua, dac biet trong thdi ky 1961 - 2007.
sd ngay mua tren 25 mm/ngay tang d mien Nam, tren 50 mm/ngay giam d mien Bac. Ddi vdi mua ngay cyc dai giai doan tir 1961 din 1990, bieu hien ro tang hau het cac viing khi hau, ngoai trir B l , tang manh nhat vimg B4 va N 1 . Tuy nhien, giai doan tir 1991 den 2000 xu the mua giam vimg Bl va B2, song tang d cac vimg cdn lai. Mac dau vay, xem xet trong ca thdi doan til 1961 den 2007, lugng mua ngay cue dai cd xu the tang tren mpi viing, trir B3 [4]. Cac nhan dinh nay dugc [10] kiem nghiem lai bang
phuang phap kiem nghiem phi tham sd Mann-Kendall va Sen. Diem dang chu y la xu the giam mua tir Bac Trung Bp trd ra nhin chung la nhd va it thda man mirc y nghTa 10%, lugng mua cd xu the tang nhe tren mdt sd tram thudc Nam Trung Bd va Tay Nguyen, song giam nlie ddi vdi Nam Bd, nliung chua dugc ly giai ro trong nghien cuu cua tac gia.
Nhu vay, cac nghien cim ngoai nude da danh gia dugc phan bd mua cyc doan cua mdt sd vimg tren loan cau theo eac chi sd cyc doan cua WMO (1997) de xuat theo khdng gian va thdi gian. Song nghien cuu trong nude hau het mdi tap trung danh xu the, miic do bien ddi cua mua cyc doan theo thdi gian trong giai doan 1961 - 2007, ma chua de cap den phan bd khdng gian cua chiing. Vi vay, ket qua bai bao se b6 sung cac phan tich va nlian dinh theo phan bd khdng gian, ddng thdi chudi sd lieu tinh loan dugc them 03 nam (2008, 2009 va 2010). Ngoai ra. ngudng mua dugc lya chon nghien cim la lugng mua ngay tren 50 mm (R > 50 mm) va 100 mm (R> lOOmm).
3. Nguon so lieu \ a phirong p h a p a) Ngudn sd lieu sii dyng nghien ciru: Sd lieu mua ngay ciia 143 tram khi tugng dugc thu thap tai Trung tam dii lieu Khi tugng Thuy van Viet Nam.
Do dai chudi sd lieu tir nam 1961 den 2010, sd lieu khuyet thieu se dugc loai bd trong qua trinh linh loan.
b) Phuang phap nghien cim bao gdm:
- Phuang phap thdng ke: Dugc sir dung trong linh toan dac tnmg sd ngay mua gdm: Mua 1 ngay Idn nhat (Rxlday), sd ngay mua lien tyc. sd ngay mua cd lugng mua tren 50 mm va 100 mm, sd ngay khdng mua. Trong dd.
Rxlday dugc xac dinli theo limg nam sd ngay khdng mua la ngay cd lugng mua dudi 0.1 mm (R < 0,1 mm), sd ngay cd - 101 Tgp chi Khoa hgc Tdi nguyen vd Moi tj-u&ng - So 20 - nam 2018
Nghien cuu
lugng mua Idn ban 50 mm (R > 50 mm) va (R > 100 mm) trong titng nam, sd ngay mua lien tuc la hai ngay lien tiep ird !en cd lugng mua tren 0,1 mm.
- Phuang phap ban dd va he thdng tin dia ly (GIS): Dugc sir dung trong xay dung ban dd phan bd mua cyc tri.
4. Ket qua va thao luan 4.1. So ngay mira co luffng tren 50 mm
Phan bd so ngay cd Iugng mua Idn ban 50 mm tren 7 vung klii hau Viet Nam dugc chi ra tren hinh 1. Tir hinh I, cd the nhan ra sd ngay cd R > 50 mm tap trung d cac trung tam mua Idn nhu Sin Hd, Yen Chau. Sa Pa thudc vimg khi hau Tay Bac (hinh la), Ha Giang, Bac Quang, Cao Bang. Yen Bai. Hon Oau thudc vimg khi hau Ddng Bac (hinh lb); Tam Dao thugc viing khi hau Ddng Bang Bac Bd (hinh lc): Khe Sanh, Nam Ddng, A Ludi thupc viing khi hau Bac
-f ,
Trung Bd. Ba To, Tra My, Trudng Sa thudc viing khi hau Nam Trung Bd (hinh le); Mdrak, Dac Ndng. Bao Ldc thudc viing khi hau Tay Nguyen (hinh 1 f) va Kien Giang thudc viing khi hau Nam Bd. Sd ngay cd R > 50 mm Idn nhat d Tay Bac dao ddng tir 3.7 d6n 11.4 ngay/
nam, tir 4,8 den 28.8 ngay/nam ddi vdi Ddng Bac. tir 5.5 din 11.3 ngay/nam ddi vdi Ddng Bang Bac Bd. tir 4.7 ngay den 15.8 ngay/nam ddi vdi Bac Trung Bd, tir 2,5 ngay den 20.0 ngay/nam ddi vdi Nam Trung Bd. tir 4,0 den 15,7 ngay/
nam doi vdi Tay Nguyen va Nam Bd dao dgng 3,5 den 13,2 ngay/nam, Trong dd, vimg Ddng Bac cd sd ngay mua tren 50 mm Idn nhat ca nude. Dac biet. sd ngay cd lugng mua vugt ngudng 50 mm vao khoang 20 den 30 ngay/nam rai vao trung tam mua Idn Bac Quang (hinh lb)
\ a trung tam mua Idn Tra My (hinh le).
Song cung cd khu vuc cd sd ngay mua it. khoang 2,6 ngay/nam tai Cam Ranh, Phan Rang, Ninh Thuan (hinh le).
% '
00 (l>) (c>
+
t
<e) (g)
(d) Hinh I: Phan hi s6 ngay co lirffng mira tren 50mm tren 7 vitng khi hgu: Bong
BSc (II), Tay BSc (b), Dong BSng Bdc
Bo (c), Bdc Trung Bp (it). Nam Trung Bp (e), Tiiy Nguyen (f). Nam Bp (g)
102 Tap chi Khoa hgc Tai nguyen va Moi truang -So 20- nam 2018
Nghiin cuu 4.2. So ngdy co luffng mua tren
100 mm
So vdi sd ngay mua cd lugng mua tren 50 mm, sd ngay cd lugng mua tren 100 mm tren lanh thd nude ta dao ddng yong klioang dudi 12 ngay/nam. Cac vung khi hau Ddng Bang BSc Bg (hinh 2c). Nam Bd (hinh 2g) va Tay Nguyen
(hinh 2f) sd nga\ trong nam cd lugng mua vugt ngudng 100 mm dudi 4 nga\' nam. Song phia Nam viing khi hau Bac Trung Bd (hinh 2d) va phia Bac khu vuc Nam Trung Bd (hinh 2c). sd ngay mua trong nam cd lugng mua vugt ngirdng 100 mm la 6 - 7 ngay/nam. Khu vyc Nam Trung Bd sd ngay lugng mua tren 100 mm dudi 1.5 ngay/nam.
+ sMp>
(")
(h)(e) (f)
So sanh kit qua tinh loan tai tram do mua tren lanh thd Viet Nam. cho thay tram do mua Bac Quang cd sd ngay lugng mua vugt nguang 100 mm nhieu nhat. vdi 11,2 ngay/nam. Tuy nhien, mdt sd tram cd sd ngay mua vugt ngudng 100 mm It nhat. dudi 1 ngay/nam nhu Yen Chau (0,5 ngay/nam). Mil Cang Chai (0,8 ngay/nam), San La (0.4 ngay/
nam), Bac Can (0.7 ngay/nam), Dien Bien (0,8 ngay/nam). That Khe (0,8 ngay/nam), Tuyen (^uang (0.9 ngay/
nam), Luc Ngan (0.9 ngay/nam), HiJu Lung (0,8 ngay/nam), Chi Linh (0,9 ngay/nam), Tuong Duang (0,6 ngay/
nam). Da Lat (0.1 ngay/nam). Aunpa
(d) Hmh 2: Phdn bd sd iigiiy cd luffiig mua tren lOOmnitren 7 vung khi hgu: Bong
Bdc (a), Tdy Bdc (b), Ddng Bdng Bdc
Bp (c), Bdc Trung Bd (d). Nam Trung Bp (e), Tdy Nguyin
'(f),NamBp(g) (0.8 ngay/nam), Dac Ndng (0,7 ngay/
nam), Budn Me Thudt (0,6 ngay/nam), Kontum (0.6 ngay/nam). Phan Rang (0,5 ngay/nam), Phan Thiet (0,3 ngay/
nam), Bao Ldc (0.7 ngay/nam). Can Tba (0,4 ngay/nam), Cang Long (0,6 ngay/nam). Cao Lanh (0,4 ngay/nam), Sdc Trang (0,6 ngay/nam). My Tho (0.4 ngay/nam), Tay Ninh (0,6 ngay/nam), Vung Tau (0,6 ngay/nam).
4.3. So ngay mua lien tuc Phan bd sd ngay mua lien tuc dugc chi ra tren hinh 3. Tir hinli cd the nhan Ihay, sd ngay mua lien tyc tren lanh thd Viet Nam dao ddng lir 5,5 den 24,2 ngay/nam. Khu vyc cd sd ngay mua Tap chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng - So 20 - nam 2018 103
Nghiin ciru
lien tuc it nhat ca nude la Dong Bang BSc Bd (hinh 3c). nai cao nhat ciia khu vyc chi dat 9,8 ngai^/nam thudc ve Tam Dao. VTnli Phuc. Sd ngay mua lien tyc nhiiu nhat ca nude thugc Tay Nguyen (hinh 3f), trong ddDSc Ndng cd sd ngay mua lien tuc len den 24,2 ngay/nam. Tai Nam Trun^ Bd. nhin chung cac tinh tir Da Nang den Binh Dinh cd sd ngay mua lien tuc Idn ban cac tinh tir Phu Yen den Bmh Thuan (binh 3e). Viing Bic Trung Bd (hinh 3d), sd ngay mua lien tuc tang dan theo vT dp tir Thanh Hda den Thira Thien Hul, trong dd Thira Thien Hue
cd sd ngay mua lien tuc nhiiu nhat khu vyc vdi 13 ngay/nam. Khu vyc Ddng Bac (hinh 3b), sd ngay mua lien tuc xuat hien chii yeu d Lao Cai, Ha Giang va Yen Bai, song cac tinh khac thudc khu vyc sd ngay mua lien tyc it hon 10 ngay/nam. Ddi vdi khu vyc Tay Bac (hinh 3a). sd tinh cd ngay mua lien tyc it han Ddng Bac, duy nhat co Lai Chau cd sd ngay mua lien tyc nhieu nliat ca khu vuc. Khu vyc Nam Bd (hinh 3g), sd ngay mua lien tyc nhieu nhat xay ra d Binh Phudc, khoang 20 ngay/nam.
K "^ ^ ^
(a) (b) (c)
'.^. +
)
(e) (f) 4.4. So ngdy khong mua
Sd ngay khdng mua la sd ngay cd lirgng mua dudi 0.1 mm. Dya vao ngudn sd 1 ieu mua ngay giai doan tir 1961 d i n 2010, da xac dinh dugc sd ngay khdng mua tren 7 vimt^ khi hau Viet Nam va phan bd dugc the hien tren hinh 4.
Tir hinh 4 cd the nhan thay rang, so ngay khdng mua dao ddng trung binh tir 140,1 ngay/nam d i n 261,4 ngaj'/nam.
Sd ngay khdng mua nhieu nhat rai vao tinli San La. Dien Bien thudc Tay Bac 104 -
'W ^
(8)
(d) Hinh 3: Phdn hd sd ngdy mua lien tuc trin 7 vitng khi hgu: Ddng Bdc (a), Tdy Bdc (b), Ddng
Bdng Bdc Bp (c), Bac Trung Bp (d).
Nam Trung Bp (e), Tdy Nguyin (f),
Nam Bd (g) (hinh 4a); tinh Bac Giang, Quang Ninh.
mdt phan ciia Lang San thudc Ddng Bac (hinh 4b); Hai Duang, Hai Phdng thudc Ddng Bang Bac Bd (hinh 4c); Tay Nghe All, Nam Quang Binli thudc Bae Trung Bd (hinh 4c); Phu Yen. Cam Ranh. Ninh Thuan. Binh Thuan thudc Nam Trung Bd (hinh 4e), phia ddng Gia Lai thugc Tay Nguyen (hinh 41) va phia ddng ddng blng Sdng Cuu Long thupc Nam Bd (hinh 4g).
Tgp chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng -Sd20- ndm 2018
Nghiin ciru
% t
(a)
(e>
^ •."k
^
(h) (c) (d>
s-
5
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%
•rf-t
(D
m.
•
+'
-'-'—
^ . . ^
a,:
(g)
-_---
f
+ l-»
WHA 4: Phan ho so ngay khong mira tren 7vungkhihgu:
Bang Bic (a), Tay Biic (b). Bong Bang
BUC Bp (c), Bac Trung Bp (d). Nam
Trung Bp (e), Tdy Nguyen (f). Nam
Bp(g)
^'-^t " + !
^ . ' • •
(a) (h) (c)
(e) (f) 4.5. Lugng mua mpt ngdy l&n nhdt Lugng mua mdt ngay Idn nhat tuang ddi cao d Bac Bp. Bac Trung Bd va tucmg ddi thap d Nam Trung Bd. Tay Nguyen va Nam Bd (hinh 5). Khu vyc Bic Bd va Bac Tnmg Bd quan trSc dugc
(g)
(d) Hinh 5: Phdn bd luffng mua I ngdy l&n nhdt tren 7 vimg
khi hgu: Ddng Bdc (a), Tdy Biic (b), Dong Bdng Bdc Bp
(c), Bdc Trung Bp (d), Nam Trung Bp (e), Tdy Nguyin (f).
Nam Bd (g) lugng mua tren 700 mm/ngay nhu Phii Hd (701,2 mm), Thanh Hda (731,3 mm).
Hue (731,3 mm). Con Cd (725,3 mm).
Song d Nam Trung Bd, Tay Nguyen, Nam Bd lugng mua mdt ngay Idn nliat dudi 500 mm/ngay nhu Da Nang (487,2 - 105 Tap chi Khoa hoc Tdi nguyen vd Mdi tru&ng - Sd 20 - ndm 2018
Nghien cuu
mm). Quy Nhan (353.1 mm). Nha Trang (312,3 mm), Phan Thilt (163 mm)^, Piaycu (206,4 mm), Ayunpa (239.3 mm), Budn Me Thudt (209,0 mm). Da Lat (137.4inni).VungTau(225.3 mm). CAn Tha (143.5 mm). Ca Mau (183.5 mm).
Tren hau het cac tram, lugng mua 1 ngay Idn nhat thudng dugc quan trac vao Ihdi ky miia mua. Han nira. ky luc lugng mua 1 ngay Idn nhat khdng roi \'ao cac trung lam mira Idn. Cu the tram Bac Quang (464.2 mm) mdi chi quan trac dugc lugng mua chua den 500 mm/ngay.
5. K i t luan
Qua phan tich chudi sd lieu quan trac mua lai 143 tram tren lanh thd Viet Nam, nhdm tac gia riit ra mdt sd ket luat sau:
- Phan bd cyc tri mua klidng ddng deu tren 7 viing khi hau Viet Nam, sd ngay mua tren 50 mm v-a 100 mm thudng rai vao cac trung tam mua Idn
- Sd ngay mua lien tuc va sd ngay khdng mua thudng xuat hien cac trung tam mua Idn va cac trung tam it mua
Lugng mua ngay Idn nhat thudng dugc quan trac dugc vao thdi ky miia mua - Ban dd phan bd cue tri mua khdng gian the hien ro dugc cac khu vyc xuat Iiien nhieu mua va it mua hoac khd han tren lanli thd Viet Nam. Dilu nay rat hiiu ich cho cac nha hoach dinli chinh sach trong xay dyng ke hoach phdng chong lu, lut do mua Idn va han han cho il mua.
giam thiet hai do cac hien tugng thdi tilt do mua gay ra. dam bao an sinli, xa hdi.
TAX LIEU THAM K H A O []]. Alexander L. V et al (2006).
Global observed changes in dailv climate extj-emes of temperature and precipitation.
Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 111, pp. 1 -22, DOI: 10. l'029/2005JD006290.
(2]. Donat M.G. etal (2013). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices sinces the beginning of tlie twentieth century: The HadEX2 dalasel .lournal of Geophysical Research, Vol 188.
pp. 2098-2188, 106 -
[3]. Fischer E. M and Kiuitti R (2014).
Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipilation extremes.
Geophysical Research Letters. Vol 41, pp.l- 8. DOI:10.1002/2013GL058499.
[4]. y Q Thanh H5ng va cong sy (2009).
Xu the hien doi cua lugng mua ngdy cgc dcd
& Viet Nam giai dogn 1961 - 2007 Tap chi Khoa hoc DHQGHN, Khoa hoc Ty nhien va Cdng nghe. s6 25. 3S. trang 423-430.
[5], Chu Thi Thu Hudng (2015).
I\ghien cuu ldc dong cua bien ddi khi hgu loan can den mgt so yeu to khi hdu cue tri vd hien tugng cue doan & Viet Nam. Luan an tien sy.
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