C H U Y E N MUC
KINH T E H O C - XA HOI HOC
Ql\. SJ'6S
xl XU HU'O'NG BAT B I N H BANG V^ MU'C S 6 N G d VIET NAM TRONG 20 NAM D 6 | MO'I G A N BAY
(1992/1993-2012)
CdTHI^NKlNH
6a/ viit trinh biy kit qui nghidn cim thirc trang bat binh ding vi mirc sdng ngiy cing tang a Viet Nam trong thdi ky 20 nam doi mdi gan diy (1992/1993 - 2012). Bii viit dwa ra nhin di.nh khii quit ve bit binh dang mirc sdng d Viit Nam ndi chung it nhat da thudc loai mirc dd bat binh dang vua ttr nim 2008 den nay. Bdng thdi, mdt sd mit khic cua mirc song di d mirc dg bit binh ding vua vi cao trgng ci 20 nam ddi mdi gin diy. Trong qui trinh bat binh ding ting len cag di xuit hiin sir phdn cyc xd hdi. Mgt ctrc li nhdm giiu cd mirc sdng cao nhit vi ct/c kia li cic nhdm cdn lai (trong dd nhdm ngheo li thip nhit). Ti> dd, bd; viit dira ra nhin dinh mdi vi sir bit binh dang hien nay lied xu hirdng phin hda thinh hai ci/c. Diy ii phit hien mdi vi tong kit khii quit vi xu hwdng bat binh ding d Vidt Nam trong thdi ky ddi mdi.
Trong thdi kj/ d l i mdi, b i t binh dang hien tygng dang duge ehu •</, bdi m l ! v l m&c s i n g vd phdn hda gidu ngheo lien he gi&a b i t binh dang vd bat on Id van de xd hpi n i l len d Viet Nam, xd hdi. Theo dinh hudng phdt triln thu hdt s y chd J vd quan tam ngdy ben v&ng cua Viet Nam, van d l ndy cdng nhilu eda cdc nhd nghien euu c i n dugc quan tdm chu y ben eanh vd hogch djnh chinh sdch. Tren pham nh&ng v i n d l then c h i t khac nhy cai vi todn c l u , b i t binh ding thu nhdp vd ^^a^h t h i c h l vd d i u tranh^ phdng gia tang phdn hda gidu ngheo cdng id ''*^°"9 * a m nhdng. Do vdy, tong k i t
20 ndm d l i mdi g i n ddy v l thyc trang b i t binh d i n g m&c sing d Viet Nam 05 Thidn Kinh. Tiln sT. Vi$n Xa hdi hoc. Id cdng viec c i n thilt vd dd eung Id Vien Hdn idm Khoa hoc xd hpi Viet Nam. mgc tidg cua bdi vilt ndy.
B O THISN KINH - XU HUO'NG BAT BINH B A N G V E MU'C S(5NG.
1. K H A I N I E M G I A U N G H t o . PHU'ONG P H A P D O LU'ONG MO'C S O N G , B A T BlNH D A N G V A N G U O N S O UEU Cdc nhdm t y gidu d i n ngheo dugc phan theo 5 nhdm chi tiduAhu nhip (tuy theo nguon so lieu quy djnh) cda nhdng cd nhan. Ddu tidn Id s l p xep t i t ca cdc thdnh vidn cua hd gia dinh trong mdu dieu tra theo chi tieu/thu nhdp binh qudn d i u ngudi t u t h i p nhit d i n cao n h i t Sau do Id ehia so thdnh vien dugc s l p x l p thdnh 5 nhdm cd s l ngudi trong moi nhdm bing nhau (vdi quyln so/trgng so tugng dng). Nhdm 1 cd mdc chi tidu/
thu nhdp thip nhit gpi Id nhdm nghdo va nhdm 5 cd m&c chi tieu/thu nhdp cao nhit gpi la nhdm gidu. T d cdc nhdm gidu ngheo thee cd nhdn, ta cd the quy ve ede nhdm hd gidu, nghep.
Nhdm hd gidu Id nhdm hd cd t i t ed ede cd nhdn deu thude nhdm gidu, edn nhdm hO nghep Id nhdm hp cd t i t ed cde cd nhdn deu thudc nhdm nghep.
De nguin lyc nghien cuu han c h l , m&c sing dugc do ludng d day gidi hgn trong cdc chi bdo: thu nhdp, ehi tieu ngodi dn uong va gid tn tdi san ngi d chinh. Nh&ng chi bdo nay cd don vj do ludng bing tiln (gid hien hdnh). B i t binh dang dugc do ludng qua he so Gini cd gid trj t u 0 den 1 (bang 0 Id binh dang tuyet d l i vd bing 1 Id b i t binh d i n g tuygt doi), ehenh lech gi&a nhdm hd gidu so vdi nhdm hd ngheo (Iln) vd tieu chuin "40%".
Cg the hgn: "Tieu chuin "40%" cda Ngdn hdng T h i gidi dua ra n h i m ddnh gia phan bo thu nhgp cda ddn
cu. Tieu chuin ndy xet ty trpng thu nhdp cda 40% ddn s l cd thu nhdp t h i p nhit trong tong thu nhdp eua todn bp ddn cu. Ty trong ndy nhd hon 12% Id cd s y b i t binh ddng cao v l thu nhdp, n i m trong khoang t d 12%-17%
Id cd s y b i t binh dang v&a vd Idn hgn 17% Id ed s u tuong ddi binh dang"
(Tong cgc Thong ke, 2014, tr. 22).
Ngudn s l lidu d y g c x y ly vd phdn tich qua cdc cude Biiu tra Mirc sdng Din cw/Hd gia dinh Viit Nam (VLSS/
VHLSS) t d nam 1992/1993 d i n nam 2012 do Tong cgc Thing ke thye hien vdl quy md chgn mdu dai dien cho cd nydc (mau thu nhap va chi tieu).
Trong khoang thdi gian 20 ndm (1992/
1993 - 2012), Tong cue Thing ke dd t i l n hdnh 8 cude dilu tra VLSS/
VHLSS (1992/1993, 1997/1998, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012). Bai v i l t se x y ly vd phan tich eg sd dy lieu t& 8 cugc dieu tra ndy nhim tim hilu xu hydng b i l n del b i t binh ddng ve muc s i n g d Viet Nam.
2. B A T B I N H O A N G v e THU NHAP Ddy Id chi bdo d i u tidn trinh bdy ve m&c s i n g trong bai v i l t ndy. Chi bdo thu nhip ddng vai trd quan trgng nhu Id "dau vdo" de quylt dinh "dau ra" ve cdc khodn chi tidu cho nhu c l u ddi song (ehi tieu v l luong thuc, thuc pham vd phi lugng thuc, thyc phim) vd tich Idy. Do vdy, nguon thu nhdp cda hd gia dinh ddng vai trd quan trgng va quyet djnh d i n mue sing eua cdc thdnh vien trong hd.
2.1. He s l Gini vd tidu chuan "40%" v l thu nhdp
TAP CHl KHOA HOC XA HOl s6 7(203)2015
Bang 1. H^ s6 Gini, khoang cdch chgnh lech nhom hg giau/ngheo (l4n) vk chi tieu/thu nh^p tnjng binh (TB)/khlu, tT trgng (%) thu nh^p {TB/khiu) cua hai nhom hg gidu ngheo tren t6ng s6 thu nh|p (TB/kh^u) ca nu-dc
Ca nud'c Hi s6 Gini Giau/ngheo (Idn)
1992/1993 0,330
4,9
1997/1998 0,354
S,3 Thu nhdp hp gidu/ca nu'6'c (%) Thu nhgp hd ngheo/ca nudc (%)
2002 0,420 8,1 65,4
3,8 2004 0,420 8,3 51,2 5,2
2006 0,424 8,4 50,8 5,3
2008 0,434 8,9 53,8 4,8
2010 0,433 9,2 54,5 4,6
2012 0,424 9,4 50,8 4 8
TB 1
54,4 4,7 Nguon: Tong cgc Thong ke (1994, tr. 186), (2000, tr. 272), (2011, tr. 260, 431), (2014, tr. 300, 504) vd Ket qud xu ly VLSS 1997/1998, VHLSS 2002 - 2012.
He s l Gini d Bang 1 dugc do ludng qua chi tieu dung (VLSS 1992/1993 - 1997/1998) vd thu nhgp (VHLSS 2002 - 2012). Trong hai cude khdo sat d i u tidn v l mdc song d Vidt Nam (VLSS 1992/1993 -1997/1998), vigc do ludng hd s l Gini qua ehi tieu Id tin cdy hgn.
Tuy nhidn, n l u thdng tin ve thu nhgp ddng tin cdy, thi hd s l Gini do ludng qua thu nhdp trong cdc ndm 1992/1993 vd 1997/1998 cd the se cae hgn chut It. Nhung dd sao, dya tren nguin so ligu thong ke qua 20 nam doi mdi (1992 - 2012), ta t h i y b i t binh dang d Viet Nam dd ngdy edng tdng len (hg so Gini tu 0,33 ndm 1992/1993 tdng len 0,424 nam 2012 trong ca nudc).
Chdnh l$ch thu nhdp vd phdn hdg gidu ngheo trong ddn c u cdn dugc nhdn bilt qua tieu chuan "40%": "Ty trpng ndy [tidu chuin "40%"] d nydc ta tinh theo sd h | Id 17,98% ndm 2002, 17,4% ndm 2004, 17,4% nam 2006, 16,4% nam 2008, 15% ndm 2010, 14,9% nam 2012" (Tong cgc Thong ke, 2014, tr. 22). O i l chiig s l Hdg trong dogn trich dan ndy cda Tong cyc Thong ke vdi tieg chuan "40%"
cda Ngdn hdng T h i gidi, thi Vidt Nam dd d m&c b i t binh ding vda tu ndm 2008 d i n nay (2012). Nhu t h i , dya trdn s l lieu VHLSS cua Tong cue Thing kd dd cdng b l , ta cd the cd kit luin thir nhit ring phdn bo thu nhap trong ddn cy Viet Nam d mdc bit binh ding vira vd dang cd xu hudng tdng d i n m&c b i t binh ding.
2.2. Khoang cdch gidu ngheo v l thu nhap
Do khudn kho gidi hgn cua bai v l l t d Bang 1 chi trinh bay khodng cdch ehenh lech gi&a nhdm hd gidu so vdi nhdm hg ngheo. Nhin vdo Bang 1 (hdng 3t), ta cdng thiy chenh lech v l chl tieu/thu nhdp binh qudn d i u ngudi gi&a 2 nhdm hp gidu vd nhdm hO nghep tang len qua 20 ndm d l i mdi gan ddy. Tdc Id, bat binh dang gidu ngheo o Viet Nam dd ngdy edng tdng Idn t u 4,9 I l n ndm 1992/1993 tdng len 9,4 I l n ndm 2012. B i i vdi khodng cdch chenh lech cda cdc nhdm hd cdn lgi d gi&a so vdi nhdm hp nghdo chua dugc trinh bdy d Bang 1, thi se dugc tiep tge t h i hidn qga do thj Hinh 1 (a).
Do thj ndy t h i hien day dd ve khodng cdch chdnh lech thu nhdp binh qudn
12 B O THIEN K I N H - x u HU&NG BAT B I N H B A N G V E M U C SONG...
Hinh 1. Chenh Igeh thu nhdp giira cdc nhdm hO so vdi hp ngheo vd sy phan chia chiec bdnh thu nhap
Chenh lech thu nh^p TB/Miiu glOa cic nh6m hS cd nirfrc (•I)v61nh0liinghte = i l i n )
Chile Unh thu nhfp (T&l,hiu| ci nu
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d i u ngudi giua 5 nhdm hd t u gidu d i n nghdo (so vdi nhdm hd ngheo ldm chuin = 1 lan) trong khoang thdi gian 10 ndm gan ddy (2002 - 2012).
Trong Hinh 1 (a), nhdm hg gidu d tren dinh noi Idn cao hem ci va each xa cdc nhdm hg phia dudi. S u phdn b l nhu t h i cda 5 dudng do thi Hinh 1(a) dd t h i hien sw phin thinh hai cwc (tuong phdn) trgng qud trinh bat binh d i n g tdng len d Viet Nam. Mdt cue Id nhdm hd gidu vd cue kia id cac nhdm hd cdn Igi (trong dd nhdm hd ngheo id thip nhit). Nhu vdy, ta cd the cd kit luin thir hai ring s y phdn hda gidu ngheo hign nay d Viet Nam ed xu hydng phdn hda thanh hai circ, hoac gpi la phan circ giau ngheo.
2.3. Chile banh thu nhap dygc phdn bo nhu t h i ndo?
Ddy Id s y trinh bdy ve 2 nhdm hd gidu ngheo "chiem h&u" chile bdnh thu nhap (TB/khlu) nhy t h i nag theo cdch nhin true quan vd d l hinh dung hgn. Nh&ng con so d 2 hdng cuoi trong Bang 1 the hien m i i nhdm hd gidu ngheo cd milng bdnh thu nhdp
(TB/khlu) chilm bao nhieu % trong t i n g so cua cd nudc. Do thj Hinh 1 (b) id s y minh hga ve con s l trung binh (in ddm) d 2 hdng culi trong Bdng 1.
Trong 10 ndm (2002 - 2012), ddi vdi nhdm hg ngheo cd milng bdnh thu nhdp chi chilm khoang 3,8% - 5,3%
(trung binh Id 4,7%) trong tong so cua todn xd hpi. Trpng khi dp. d cyc kia Id nhdm gidu cd milng bdnh thu nhdp chilm p h i n to hgn r i t nhilu vdo khoang 50,8% - 65,4% (trung binh la 54,4%), mac du moi nhdm hd gidu ngheo d i u ed 20% ddn s l bang nhau.
3. B A T BlNH D A N G v e CHI TlEU
N G G A I A N U O N G
Ddy Id chi bdo thd hai trinh bdy ve muc s i n g trong bdi v i l t ndy. Cd t h i t h i y t i m quan trong cda chi tieu ngodi dn u i n g qua s y phdn tdch don gidn nhu sau: Chi tieu cho ddi sdng = Chi in udng + Chi nggii in udng. Cung vdi chl bdo can ban Id thu nhip ddng vai trd quan trgng nhu Id "diu vdo" d l quyet djnh "dau ra" v l cde khodn chi tidu chg ddi sdng, mdc dd chl tidu cho nhu c l u ngodi an uong nhu the ndo
TAP CHl KHOA HOC XA HQI so 7(203)2015
Bang 2. H d s 6 Gini vd tieu chuan "40%" ve chi tieu ngodi an udng ciia dan c u (So lieu tinh; TB/khau/hO - Gia hign hdnh) C d n u o t :
Gini chi ngoai dn Tidu c h u i n "40%"
1992/1993 0,487 12,5
1997/1998 0,469 13,8
2002 0,486 12.9
2004 0.473 13,0
2006 0,469 13,0
2008 0,469 13,4
2010 0,486 12,8
2012 0,438 14,5 Nguon: Kit qud xtr ly VLSS 1992/1993 - VHLSS 2012.
Cdng phan dnh mdc song cao hay t h i p cda ngudi dan nhu t h i l y . Khi ngudi ddn edn ngheo, quy chi tieu ddi song cda hp thudng ddnh ehd y l u cho nhu c l u dn u i n g . D i n khi mdc s i n g ndng len thi nhu c l u chl tieu cho ngodi dn uong eung tdng theo. D i l u ndy cung da dugc ddn gian phdn dnh qua edu ndi: "Phu quy sinh Id nghTa".
S l lieu v l chi tieu ngodi dn uong qua cdc cupc khao sdt VLSS 1992/1993 - VHLSS 2012 bao gom h i u h i t cde nhu c l u phi luong thye, thyc p h i m cda hg gia dinh. Dd Id nh&ng khcan ehi tieu che may mac, nhd d, didn nydc, ve sinh. d l ddng gia dinh, gido dgc, y t l , chdm sdc sdc khde, di lai, thdng tin lidn lgc, vdn hdg tinh than, giai tri. Dc vdy, khoan mgc ehi tieu ngodi dn uong da the hien mOt cdch tong hgp nhieu mat v l mdc song ddn cy.
3.1. He so Gini vd tieu chuin "40%" v l chi tieu ngodi dn u i n g
So sdnh vdi chi bdo thu nhdp trinh bdy tren day, d l i vdi he s l Gini v l chi tieu ngodi an u i n g (Bdng 2) Id cao hon he so Gini v l thu nhdp (Bang 1).
Cg the, he s6 Gini ehi tidg ngodi an gIng trong cd nydc Id t d 0,438 d i n 0,487.
Ve tidy chgIn "40%", ta t h i y qua 20 ndm doi mdi gan day, t i n g so chi tieu
ngodi an uing cua 40% ddn s l cd khodn chi tieu ndy t h i p nhit chi chilm khodng 12.5% d i n 14.5% tren ting so ehi tieu ngcdi an uing todn xd hdi (Bang 2). D l i chilu vdi tidu chuin
"40%" thi su phdn bo ve ehi tidu ngodi dn uong trong c l nudc Id d muc do b i t binh d i n g vira t y ndm 1992/1993 d i n nay (2012). Trong khi do. den tan nam 2008 thi Vift Nam mdi d mdc bat binh d i n g vira v l su phdn bo thu nhdp. Tdm lal, nhin tong t h i v l phdn bo cda chl tieu ngodi dn uong qua he so Gini vd tieu ehuIn "40%", chung deu t h i hidn muc dd b i t binh ddng Id cao han so vdl phdn bo v l thu nhdp.
3.2. Chl tieu an uong vd ngodi dn uong duge phdn bo vdi nhau nhu the ndo?
Tong s l (100%) ehi tieu cho ddi song hg gia dinh dugc phdn tdch thdnh 2 phan: p h i n chi tidu cho nhu c l u an uong vd p h i n cdn lai Id chi tieu cho nhu c l u ngoai dn uong. So sdnh ti trgng (%) gida 2 phan ehi tidu ndy Id mdt chi tidu ddnh gid mdc sdng cao hay thip. N l u ti trgng ehi tieu cho nhu e i u ngoai dn u i n g edng cao (vd eao hon cho an uong) thi mdc song eda ddn cu cdng cdng cao vd ngygc lai (Tong cgc Thing ke, 2011, 2014, tr.
16). Vigt Nam Id mdt nydc ngheo, do vdy ti trpng chi tieg eho dn uing (trong
B O THieN KiNH - XU HU'O'NG BAT BINH P A N G V £ MCfC S6NG..
Bang 3. Ti trpng chi ti&u ngo^i an uong trong chi tieu cho dai song gi&a cSc nhom hO gidu ngheo
(Gia hien hdnh) Ban vi tinh: % C d n u d c
Nhom hg ngheo (1) (2)
(3) (4)
Nh6m ho giau (5) Chung
1992/199;
27,8 32,3 36,4 41,6 51,3 38,4
2002 32,8 37,0 39,7 43,0 48,4 40,6
2004 35,5 39,6 42,9 46,7 51,5
•»3,6 2006 36,4 40.3 43,4 47,6 52,1 44,4
2008 35,5 40,1 44.2 46.5 51.1 43.8
2010 36,6 40,8 43,1 45,9 51,1 43,9
2012 35,8 40,9 42,8 44,6 48.3 42,7
TB (2002-2012) 35.4 39,8 42,7 45,7 50,4 43.2 Nguon: Kit qua xd ly VLSS 1992/1993 - VHLSS 2012
quy chl tieu cho ddi song hd gia dinh) cdn cao vd dyong nhien phin ehi tidu ehg nhu c l u ngodi dn uing edn thip (Bdng 3).
O Bdng 3 ta thiy, qua 20 ndm doi mdi g i n ddy, mdc s i n g ddn cu tdng len dugc t h i hien qua xu hudng tdng ti trpng p h i n chi tidu ngedi an udng trong ed nudc (tdng t d 38,4% ndm 1992/1993 Idn 42,7% ndm 2012). Khi phdn ehia theo ede nhdm hg gidu ngheg ta thiy, nhdm hg cd mdc song cdng cao tht cd ti trgng ehi tieu ngodi dn u i n g cdng nhieu hgn (ddy so tdng d i n theo chilu mui ten). 06l vdl nhdm hp ngheo cd ti trpng chl tieu ngodi dn uong td It hgn nhilu so vdi nhdm hd gidu. Cg t h i Id, nhdm hd giau trong ca nudc cd ti trgng chi tieu giua an uing va ngcai dn uong khodng ehdng 50/50 (%) - trung binh Id 49.6/50,4(%) trong 10 ndm (2002 - 2012). Trong khi dd nhdm hd nghdo phai tieu dung tdi khoang 2/3 t i n g chi ddi sing ddnh cho nhu c l u dn uing. cdn Igi khodng 1/3 dung de ehi tieu ngodi an uing - trung binh Id 64.6/35,4(%) trong 10
ndm (2002 - 2012). Dieu ndy rd rdng dd anh hudng d i n c h i t lugng cugc song v l gido dgc, y t l vd chdm sdc sdc khoe cda hg. Trdi lai, nhdm hd gidu cd dieu kien hgn trong viec ndng cac c h i t lugng eupe song.
4. B A T BlNH D A N G v e GlA TRj TAl SAN NOI O
Cung vdl thu nhdp vd chl tieu ngcdi dn uing, chi big nhi a cung ddng vai trd quan trpng t h i hien mdc song cua dan cu. Cdc nhd ly ludn Mdc-xlt dd tdng nhan mgnh con ngudi tg trudc h i t eIn phii dn, mdc, d, di lai, sau dd mdi d i n hoat ddng ehinh tri vd Idm edch mang. Sau khi lao ddng cd nguon thu nhdp de trang trdi nh&ng nhu cau thiet y l u trong ddi s i n g hdng ngdy, cdc hd gia dinh thudng c l gIng de ddnh ra phan tieh Idy cho viec tu tao vd xay dyng ngi d eda minh. N h y ^ H ta cd t h i coi gid tri tdi san noi d nhy la tdi khoan "edng don" v l thu nhdp sau nhilu nam lao ddng. Do dd, chi bdo nhd d ed y nghTa nhleu hgn so vdi chi bdo thu nhdp trong s u phan dnh mdc song cda ngudi ddn. Cu|c song eua
TAP CHl KHOA HOC XA HQI so 7 <203) 2015 c y dan Viet Nam ngdy trydc thydng mo y d c tdi hinh I n h "nha ngdi, cdy mif, cdn hidn nay thi vygn tdi udc mg eao hon id "nhd l l u , xe hoi". Vdy, thuc trgng nhd d cda ngudi ddn Viet Nam qua cdo cude khdo sdt VLSS 1992/1993 - VHLSS 2012 nhu t h i ndo?
4.1. Hd so Gini vd tidu chuin "40%" v l gid trj tdi san noi d
He so Gini vd tieu chuin "40%" d l i vdi chi bdo gid tr| tdi sdn noi g chinh cua hd gia dinh dugc tinh todn dya tren gid trj ngi d quy d l i thdnh tien (TB/khlu).
Trong Bang 4, so sdnh vdi chi bdo thu nhdp vd chi bdo chi tieu ngodi dn uong, thi hd s l Gini vd tidu chuin "40%" d l i vdi gid trj tdi san noi d chinh d i u t h i hign s y b i t binh d i n g Id cao han oi
^cao nhat). Cg t h i d Bdng 4 cho thiy, hg s l Gini v l gia trj tai san cho d chlnh trong o l nude dao ddng trgng khoang t d 0,651 d i n 0,754. Nhu vdy, hd s l Gini v l gid trj tdi sdn ehd d chlnh la cao hon he so GInl ve thu nhdp (Bang 1) va cdng cao hon he s l Gini v l chi tidu ngodi an uing (Bang 2). v l tidu chuin "40%" ddn s l cd gii
tti tii san chd d chinh thugc muc thip nhat thi hp ehi chilm khoang t d 4,0%
d i n 6,8% (trung binh Id 4,8%) trdn tong so gia trj tdi san cho d chinh todn xd hpi trong vdng 20 nam. Doi chieu vdi tieu chuin "40%" thi sy phan bo ve gid trj tdi san ehd d chinh trong cd nydc Id d mdc do b i t binh d i n g cao tir nim 1992/1993 din nay (2012).
Trong khi dd, d i n tan nam 2008 thi Vigt Nam mdi d mdc b i t binh dang vira v l su phdn b l thu nhgp, edn chi tieu ngodi an uing d mdc b i t binh d i n g vira td ndm 1992/1993 d i n nay (2012). Tdm lai, nhin t i n g the ve phan bo eda gid tri tdi sdn chd d chlnh, ta t h i y mde dp b i t binh dang Id cao t d ndm 1992/1993 den nay (2012) vd cao hon ca (cao nhit) so vdi phdn bo v l thu nhdp vd chi tidu ngodi dn uong.
4.2. Khodng cdch gidu nghdo v l gid trj tdi san ngi d
Do khudn kho gidi han cda bdi viet, d Bang 4 (hdng 3t) chi trinh bdy khodng cdch chenh lech giua nhdm hp gidu so vdi nhdm hp ngheo v l gid tri tdi sdn noi g (TB/khau). D l i vdi khoang edch ehenh lech cua cdc nhdm hd cdn Bang 4. Hd s6 Gini, tieu chuin "40%", khodng cdch chenh Idch nhdm hd gidu/ngheo (Idn) ve gid tri noi d, va ti trgng (%) ve gid trj ngi d cua hai nhdm hp giau ngheo tren ting s6 gid tri ngi d cd nudc
S6 lieu tinh: TB/khau/hO - Gid hign hanh C a n u d c
Gini gid trj ch5 a T i i u chudn "40%"
HO gidu/ngheo (l4n) Gidu/ca ni^dc {%) Ngheo/ca nudc {%)
1992/93 0,717 4,3 12,7 64,5 4,2
1997/98 0,674 6,8 16,5 65,7 2,9
2002 0,754 4,2 13,4 66,8 4 0
2004 0,726 4,0 15,0 61,5 3,3
2006 0,701 4 6 1 4 6 61,9 3,4
2008 0,695 4,7 12,0 59,7 4,2
2010 0,716 4,0 13,3 57,6 3,4
2012 0,651 5,7 9,4 50,5 4,5
TB
4,8
61,0 3,7 Ngudn: Kit qud xd ly VLSS 1992/1993 - VHLSS 2012.
B O THIEN KINH - x u HUONG BAT BlNH BANG Vg MUC S 6 N G . .
Hinh 2. Chenh Igeh gid tri tdi sdn noi d chlnh (TB/khlu) va sy phan b l nguon tai san nay gida cac nhdm hd td giau den ngheo
lal d gl&a so vdi nhdm hd nghdo chua dugc trinh bdy d Bang 4, thi se dugc tilp tgc t h i hidn qua dd thi Hinh 2(a).
Dd thj ndy t h i hign d i y dd khodng edeh chdnh Idch v l gid trj tdi sdn ngi d binh qudn d i u ngudi giua 5 nhdm hg t u gidu d i n nghdo (so vdi nhdm hd ngheo Idm chuin = 1 iln) trong 20 ndm doi mdi g i n ddy (1992/1993 - 2012). Tuong t y nhy b i t binh dang v l thu nhgp d Hinh 1(g), nhdm hg gidu trong Hinh 2(a) eung d tren dinh ndi len cao nhit vi cich xa han cde nhdm h | phia dydi. Nhyng, khodng cdch gidu ngheo d Hinh 2(a) la Idn hgn khoang each gidu nghdo d Hinh 1(a). Oilu ndy cd nghTa Id x u i t hidn sy phin circ Idn hon (so vdi phdn eye v l thu nhdp) trgng xu hudng bat binh d i n g ve gid tri tdi sdn eho d chinh.
Ddy Id s y b l sung tilp tgc eho k i t ludn thd hai d tren ring s y phdn hda gidu nghdo hign nay d Viet Nam cd xu hydng phdn hda thdnh hai circ, hode gpi Id phin owe giiu ngheo.
4.3. Gid tri tdi san noi d dygc phdn bo nhy t h i ndo?
Bdng 4 (hdng 1-2t) trinh bdy hai nhdm hd
gidu ngheo s d h&u ngudn tdi san v l gid trj noi d chlnh (TB/khlu) theo ti trpng (%) nhu t h i ndo. T&e Id, hai hdng s l lieu ndy t h i hien mdi nhdm hd gidu nghdo cd gid trj tai san noi d chinh chilm bao nhieu % trong tong s l cda toan xd hpi. Cg t h i id trong 20 ndm doi mdi gan ddy (1992/1993 - 2012), gid trj nhd d cda nhdm hd ngheo chi chilm khoang 2,9% - 4,5%
(trgng binh id 3,7%) trong tong s l eua todn xa hdi. Trong khi dd, d cyc kia id nhdm hp gidu cd gid trj tdi san c h l d chilm phan to hon rat nhilu vdo khodng 50,5% - 66,8% (trung binh Id 61,0%), mde dd mdi nhdm hp gidu ngheo deu cd 20% ddn s l bing nhau.
B l thj Hinh 2(b) la s y minh hoa cho hdng 1-2T d Bang 4 v l con s l trung binh 20 ndm (in dam) trong ca nydc.
Nhin vdo Hinh 2(b) ta thiy, doi vdi nguon tdi san id gid tri cho d chlnh thi sy b i t binh d i n g gidu ngheo id idn hon nhilu so vdi s y phdn chia chile banh thu nhgp d Hinh 1(b).
4.4. Cdc kilu logi nhd d
D l ed odi nhin cu t h i hgn v l b i t binh d i n g nhd d , ta hdy mieu td thdnh 5
TAP CHl KHOA HOC XA HQl so 7 (203) 2015
Bang 5. TT I? hp c6 cac loai nh^ a v^ co manh d^l a/nhS a khac chia theo cac nhom ho gi^u ngh6o (2012)
Ban vj tinh: %
Ca nu'dc
Nhom h0 ngheo (1) (2)
(3) (4)
Nhom ho gidu (5) Chung
Ngdi nhd chinh thupc logi nao?
Biet thy
a
0,3 0,7 0,8IE
0,7 Kien CO khdp kin
ffi
5,4 14,0 23,4 40,8 18,2
Kien CO khong khep kin
9,1 13,6 15,8 14,2 9,5 12,4
Ban kien c6 6 7 a 68,0 63,2 5 7 5
ra
60./Tam va khdc
asTs
12,7 6,4 4 0
n
8,6 Chung700 100 100 100 100 100
Manh dat d, nha d khac?
Co
m
3,1 7 1 8,2Eii
7,4 Khfing
98,0 96,9 92,9 91,8 84,6 92,6 Nguon: Kit qua xd ly VHLSS 2012.
logi nha d t d eau hdi goc bgn d i u cua VHLSS 2012. Ddng thdi, cOng tim hilu them thyc trgng cdc hd gig dinh ed manh d i t d , hodc nha d khae (ngoai ngi g chlnh) nhu t h i nao. T i t c l deu dyge phdn tich tygng quan theo 5 nhdm hd t d gidu d i n ngheo (Bang 5).
Dieu ndy se giup cho vide xem xet s y b i t binh d i n g ve "kieu Icai/hlnh dgng"
nhd d dygc cg the hon.
Trong c l nudc, d Bang 5 ta thiy vdo ndm 2012 ti Id hd gidg sing trong nh&ng ngdi nhd kilg bidt thy (1,7%) id nhilu hgn so vdi hd nghdo (0,1%).
T i l p theo id cd tdi 40,8% hd gidu ca nydc song trong ngdi nhd kien eo khdp kin. Trong khi do ehi cd 3,0% hp nghdo s i n g trong ngdi nhd loai ndy, cdn lai 67,9% hd ngheo song trong ngdi nhd bdn kidn c l . O i l vdi nhd tgm vd khdc, cd 19,9% hd nghdo c l nydc song trong dd. Trdi lgi, chi cd 1,8% hd gidu ca nudc s i n g trong ngdi nhd loal ndy. o i l vdl tdi san manh dat d (hoSc nha g khde), Idn tdi 15,4% hd gidu ed tdi sdn Iggi ndy, vd chi cd 2,0% hd
ngheo cd tdi sdn dd. Chenh lech gidu nghdo v l manh d i t d, hogc nhd d khdc Id g i p 7,7 I l n .
5. CAl NHiN T O N G Q U A T v e B A T BlNH D A N G MU'C S O N G
Sau khi trinh bdy tung npi dung eu t h i tren ddy, mue ndy dua ra mpt s l khdi qudt v l b i t binh d i n g muc sing g Vidt Nam trong thdi kji d l i mdi.
5.1. Muc dp b i t binh d i n g vira dang tdng len cag
Nhin lai tong quan ve s y b i t binh d i n g theo tidu chuin "40%" vd hg s l Gini qua 20 ndm doi mdi g i n ddy, ta t h i y tdy theo mdi tieu chuin do ludng md cd the dua ra nh&ng ddnh gid muc do b i t binh d i n g mdt cdch khde nhau. VI dg, khi do ludng qua tieu chuin "40%" ve thu nhdp dan d i n k i t ludn rang b i t binh d i n g d Viet Nam dd tdng len mdc bat binh ding vira t d ndm 2008 den nay (2012). Nhung, khi do ludng qua tieu chuan "40%" ve chi tieu ngodi dn uong, thi b i t binh d i n g d Viet Nam deu d mdc dd b i t binh
B O T H I E N KINH - x u HLr&NG BAT BlNH B A N G VE MUC SCNG...
d i n g vira trong todn bg 20 ndm qua (1992/1993-2012). C u l l edng, khi do lydng qua tidu chuin "40%)" v l gid trj tdi san ngi g chlnh thi t i t ca d i u chdng td b i t binh d i n g d Vidt Nam thudc mdc dg bat binh ding cao ngay t& nhdng ndm d i u (1992/1993) cdch ddy 20 ndm cho d i n tdn ngay nay (2012). Vdy, khi ddnh gid tong hgp cdc tidu chuin do lydng v l mdc sing thi Vidt Nam se thudc mdc dg b i t binh d i n g nhy t h i ndo?
Trong so nhdng tieu chuin do ludng, chi bdo thu nhip ddng vai trd quan trgng nhu id " d i u vdo" d l quylt dinh cdc "diu ra" v l chi tieu (ngoai an uing) va gid trj tdi san noi d. Hd so Gini vd chenh igeh gidu ngheo v l thu nhdp (Bang 1) cho t h i y xu hwdng chung vi bit binh ding ngiy cing ting len d Vigt Nam trong 20 ndm doi mdi g i n ddy. Trdn eg sd chi bdo thu nhgp, k i t hgp vdi chi tieu ngodi dn uong vd ddc biet Id gid trj tdi sdn ngi d chinh, ta cd the nhdn djnh khdi qudt ring b i t binh ding mdc sing d Viet Nam ndi chung / ( n h i t Sa thudc logi mdc dp bit binh ding vira t u ndm 2008 d i n nay (2012),
cdn chi tidu cho ngodi dn uong deu thupc loai mdc dg b i t binh ding vira trong ca 20 ndm a l l mdi gan ddy.
Dong thdi, mdt s l mat khdc cda mdc sing (vi dg nhu gid trj tdi san chd g) da d mdc dd b i t binh dang cao t d nhung ndm d i g 1992/1993 cho den tdnngdy nay (2012).
5.2. S y phdn hda thdnh hai eye gidu ngheo v l mdc s i n g
Trong qud trinh b i t binh d i n g tdng len cao d Viet Nam da x u i t hign su pbin cwc xi hdi. Mdt cue id nhdm gidu cd mdc sing cao nhat vd cue kia Id ede nhdm cdn Igi (trong dd nhdm ngheo Id t h i p nhit). Nhu vgy, tg cd the nhdn djnh ring s y b i t binh d i n g hidn nay d Viet Nam Id cd xu hirdng phin hda thinh hai cwc. Ddy la nhin dinh mdi vi t i n g k i t khdi qudt v l xu hudng bat binh d i n g d Viet Nam trong thdi ky doi mdi.
Do vdy, thilt nghT ring c i n thilt phai thay doi md hinh phat triln kinh te - xd hdi d l thu hgp khoang cdch bit binh d i n g dang didn ra hien nay d Viet Nam. u
TAl LIEU TRiCH DAN
1. Tong cue Thong ke. 1994. Khio sit Mirc sSng Dan cu Viit Nam 1992-1993. Ha Npi:
Nxb. Thong ke.
2. Ting cue Thong ke. 2000. Biiu tra MOc song Dan cw Viit Nam 1997-1998. Ha Ndi:
Nxb. Thong kd.
3. Tong cgc Thong ke. 2011. Kit qui Khao sit MOc song Dan cw nam 2010. Ha Npi:
Nxb. Thong kd.
4. Tong cyc Thing ke. 2014. Kit qua Khio sit Muc song dan cw Viit Nam 2012. Ha NOi: Nxb. Thing ke (vdn ban di^n td).
