Science & Technology Development, Vo) 18, No Q l - 2015
C.AC NHAN TO ANH HUONG OEN KHA N.ANG TIEP C f N TIN D^NG CHINH THCTC CUA NONG HQ TINH AN GIANG
FACTORS AFFECTING ACCESS TO FORMAL CREDIT BY SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN AN GIANG PROVINCE
Nguyfn Nhan Nhir Ngoc
Trudng Dgi hoc Kinh t i - Luat, DHQG - HCM - ngocnguyen2n'g^yahoo com Pham Diic Chfnh
Trudng Dai hpc Kinh ti - Luat, DHQG - HCM • chinhpd'duet.ediLvn (Bdi nhdn ngdy 10 thdng 11 ndm 2014, hodn chinh sua chita ngdy 04 thdng 03 nam 2015)
Nghien cini duoc Ihuc hien de xdc dinh cdc nhdn Id cmh hiro-ng din khd nang nip cgn lin difng chinh thuc ciia hd nong ddn tren dia bdn tinh An Giang Thdng qua sd lieu dieu tra 210 hd ndng ddn vd dp dung md hinh phdn tich hdi quy binary logistic, cho thay khd ndng Iiip cpn nguon lin dung chinh Ihirc Clia ndng hp chiu anh hu&ng b&i ndm nhdn id (I) tdng gid Ir/ ldi sdn cua ho. (2) tham gia Id chirc dodn thi. (3) nliu cdu vay lie cdc id chirc tin dvng (TCTDJ, (4) bao lanh vay vd (5) thu nhdp tich luy.
Trong do. nhdn id nhu cdu vay cd Idc dpng manh me nhdt din khd nang tiip can tin dyng chinh thirc cua mdu ndng hp Tir ket qua hdi quy. mdt md hinh dimg di d{t dodn khd ndng tiip can lin dung chinb Ihirc cua ndng hd dupc hinh thdnh. vai xdc sual du dodn dung ciia md hinh la 93,8%.
Tir khda: Tin diing chinh ihuc. khd ndng tiip cgn lin dung, ndng hg. binary logistic
ABSTRACT
This study was conducted lo detenuinefactors that affect the access lo formal credit by smallholder farmers ,n An Giang province Applying bmaiy logistic regression analysis on a sample of 210 households, we found that the access to formal credit by these households are affected by Jive faclors. namely total value of household assets, participation in organiiations. demand for loans from credit instiiuiions. loan guarantees and accumulated income, in which the demand for loans has the gieaiesi impaci from the regression resulls. we built a model to forecast the access to formal credii by households with 93 8%. precise forecasiprobability
Keywords: Formal credii. access lo ci edn. smallholder farmers, binary logistic
1. G i d l THIEU
nguoi, trong dd cd tdi 60,4 trifu ngudi sdng d Theo sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thong ke nam ^^^ ^^^ "^"S ''^on, chiim 68,06% tdng so dan.
2013. dan sd Vigi Nam da vugt qua 90 trifu ^''""S t^ng difn tich 353.667 km^ ca nudc thi dit nong nghiep la 279.399 km\ chiim ldi
TAP CHf PHAT TRItN KH & CN, TAP 18, S 6 Q l - 2015 79%. Mac dil sd hiru phin Idn tu lieu san xult
la dat dai va ngudi lao ddng, nhung ddng gdp eua khu vyc ndng nghifp ndng thdn vao tang trudng kinh tg chi dao ddng quanh mtrc 20%
GDP hong nhtmg nam gan day, giam ttr hgn 40% GDP cua thdi ky hudc khi ddi mdi. Cd nhifu nguyen nhan giai thich cho su sut giam nay, song chii yiu vln la do khu vuc ndng nghifp ndng thdn chua dupc diu tu tucmg xirng va chuyin djch co clu Iao ddng khdng theo k]p vdi chuygn djch co clu kinh ti. Khu vyc ndng nghifp ndng thdn dang rit d n ngudn vdn cho dau tu san xult, nhu may mdc thiit b] phyc vy san xuat, phuong tifn van tai, cdng nghe bao quan va chi biin ndng san sau thu hoach,...
Ngay 12/04/2010, Chinh phii ban hanh Nghi djnh sd 4I/20iO;'NDCP vg chinh sach tin dy~ng phyc vy phat friin ndng nghifp ndng thdn da md ra nhieu ca hdi cho san xult ndng nghiep, giai quyil con khat vdn ciia ndng dan Nhung thyc tf, ndng dan muon tiip can dugc ngudn vdn nay cung khdng phai dl dang.
Ngudi dan ndng ihdn An Giang cung khdng ngogi If, khi ma phin ldn dan cu tap trung d viing ndng thdn vdi hem 70% dan sd ca tinh va tdng difn tich dit ndng nghiep hon 297,000 ha nhung thu nhap binh quan mdt nhan khiu mdt Ihang chia theo ngudn thu, hong dd thu tir ndng, lam nghifp va thiiy san nSm 20iO ehi dupc 377.900 ddng, Ngudi dan noi day rit cln vdn de diu tu phat hiin san xult nhim nang cao thu nhap va cai thifn ddi sdng cCia minh Bai bao vdl chu d€ "Cic nhan to anh hudng den kha nSng tiip can tin dung chinh Ihux ciia nong hO tinh An Giang" vdi muc tigu la xac djnh dupc cac nhan td anh hudng din kha nang tiep can tin dung chinh thirc ciia ndng hd, qua dd dg ra cac ham y quan tri nhim giiip ndng dan nang cao kha nang Iiip can ngudn tin dyng chinh thiic, khoi thdng ddng cha\ tin dyng vg ndng thdn. gdp phin dua kinh ti gia dinh, kinh te ndng thdn phat friin.
2. CO SO LY THUYET VA MO HINH NGHIEN C L T J
Cac nghien cuu trudc day da phan ti'ch nguyfn nhan ciia vifc bi tir chdi eho vay. khdng the Iiep can dugc tin dung chinh thirc ciia ngudi dan ndng thdn. nhat la ngudi ngheo d nh&ns vung xa xdi, mSc dti dugc xac dinh la doi tugng cho vay ciia cac TCTD chinh thiic Theo cac nghifn cihi nay vln di mlu chdt la cac TCTD chinh thirc khdng fhi diiu chinh lai suit di bii dap chi phi va nii ro cao khi cho vay d ndng thdn do ngudl vay thudng gap bit frlc khd ludng anh hudng xlu din kha nang tra ng nhu mat miia. dich bfnh, gia ndng san bip benh,. . hong khi hp thieu tai san thi chip va khdng cd CO che bao hiem cay hdng. vgt nudi Kit qua la cac TCTD chinh thiic se han chi cho vay d ndng thdn (Joanna L , 2006, Sarap K., 1990).
Theo l> thuyit Thdng tin bll can xung ciia Stiglits E.J va ctg (1981). cd hgn chi hong thi hudng tin dung nfn se cd mpt sd ngudi khdng vay dugc mac dii hg chip nhgn tra iai suit cao hon Diagne A. va ctg (2000) dua ra phuang phap mdl de do ludng muc dp ndng hg tiip can tin dyng la phucmg phap phdng vln true tiip hg ndng dan de tim ra gidi han tin dung ciia hp ddi vdl ngudn tin dung nhit dinh Ddng thdi dng cung cho ring ngudi cho vay se lya chon gidi hgn tin dung doi vdi ngudi vay cy thi Gidi han tin dung la sd tiin tdi da ma ngudi cho vay sin sang cho vay trong khudn khi so tiin anh ta sin cd, Vi vay, gidi han tin dung la mdt ham cua sy danh gia chu quan ciia nguoi cho vay vi kha nang vd ng va vg cac dac tinh khac ciia ngudl vay Do dd. tim ra gidi hgn tin dung cua mpt hd gia dinh ttr bit ky ngudn cung tin dung nao la each do ludng toi nhit doi vdi muc do tiip can ngudn tin dung dd. Can cii vao hai nghifn ciru ufn da ly giai vi sao cac di iai vi tigp can tin dung hf n Thi gidi dfu lua chpn md hinh nghien ciiu khac nhau vdi cac biin ddc lap khac nhau.
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Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Ql - 2015
Sau khi tham khao ctf sd ly thuyet va cacnghien ctiu cd lifn quan din df tai, nghifn ciiu nay ke thtia md hinh nghien citu ciia Dzadze P.
va ctg (2012) dg kigm dinh cac nhan td anh hudng den tiip can lin dung chinh thuc ciia ndng hp d tinh An Giang. Md hinh ciia Dzadze P. va ctg (2012) gdm II biin dgc lap; dd la.
gldi tinh Clia chit hg, kinh nghifm iam ndng, thpm gia khuyfn ndng, thdi quen tiii kifm, khoang each den ngan hang, quy md ndng frai.
thanh yien td chuc ndng dan, nhu clu tin dyng, trinh dd hpc van, cd ngudi bao lanh blng luong va bien cudi cimg la hch sir tin dyng Kit qua nghien ciru nay cho thiy ring tham gia chuong trinh khuyin ndng, trinh dp hpc vln va thdi quen tiit kifm da cd anh hudng tich cue dang ke din vifc tifp can tin dung chinh thiic ciia hg ndng dan d Ghana. Bfn cgnh dd, hong nghifn ctiu ciia Davis R.J. va ctg (1998) cho thiy thu nhap c6 fnh hudng din kha nang tiip can tin dung cua ngudi ndng dan d Romania Thu nhap phi ndng nghifp, vi du nhu kinh doanh nhd (khdng tinh vifc bfn cac san phim ndng nghifp) cd thf lam tang co hdi cd duoe khoan vay Ifn 2,7 lln. Ngudn thu nhap phi ndng nghifp dn dinh va mirc thu nhap ndng nghigp hgp ly ddng vai trd quan trpng trong viec ttip cgn ngudn vdn vay chinh thirc Trong nghien Cliu cua Nguyin Quoc Oanh va Pham Thi My Dung (2010), eung cho thiy nhimg hp ndng dan cd thu nhap binh quan hang nam cao hon vay duoc nhiiu vdn tin dung chinh thiic hon so vdi nhiing hp cd thu nhap thip.
Vi vay, md hinh nghien ciiu dugc thiit lap nhu sau.
'°^ [?SSJ" f^°^^kXk, vdi k = 1, 2, ,. , 12
Trong do: Y Id biSn phu ihuoc cd dang nhi phdn (nhdn gid Iri 0 niu hd khdng ilip can dupc v&l ngudn tin dung chinh thuc vd nhgn gid tr; 1 neu hp cd nip can dupc vdl ngudn tin dung chinh thitc) X, Id cdc biin ddc lapXI IGlOITINHj: Gidi tfnhciia chii h$
Day la biin nhj phan, nhan gia trj I niu la nam, va nhan gia fri 0 nfu la nif. Phy ntt phai ddi mat vdl nhimg rao can vf vSn hda, vi dy nhu dao hdi, lam cho hp khd tiep can tdi cac djch vu tai chinh 6 rit nhiiu nudc, phu nit c6 miic do hiiu bigt thap, diiu nay lam cho hp khd giai quyit nhttng vln 4k vi tai chinh cd lien quan din hop ddng (Fietschener D. & ctg, 2011). Vi vgy, gia thuyft sau dugc df nghj.
Gid thuyet I: Cd su khac nhau vi gial linh trong viec liep cdn tin dung chinh thuc & ndng thdn. Chil hd Id nam se cd khd ndng tiip can tin dung chinh thitc cao han nU chu hd
X2 [HOCVAN): Trinh dg hgc van cOa chiJ hO
Trinh dp hoc vln ciia chii hg la bifn lifn tyc, phan anh sd nam di hpc ciia chu hd.Trinh dd hgc vln cang cao thi kha nang tiip can va am hifu thdng tin vi tin dung cung nhu cic difu khoan difu kifn vi tin dyng cang de dang;
ddng thdi hp dl dap iing eac yfu d u vi thu tyc cho vay rudm ra va phuc tap hon, Bfn cgnh dd, cac cdng trinh nghifn cuu da chimg thyc moi quan hf tich cue giita tgo thu nhap va trinh df giao dye (Chauke P, K. va ctg, 2013)
Gia thuyit 2: Trinh do hpc vdn ciia chu hp cd dnh hitang tich cue din khd ndng tiip cgn ngudn lin dung chinh thuc cua ndng hp.
X3 IKNGHIEM]: Kinh nghifm l^m nfi'ng nghiep eua h§
Kinh nghiem iam ndng la bifn lifn tyc, thi hifn sd nam ma hd trai qua trong ITnh vyc san xuat ndng nghifp. Hg cd kinh nghifm ISu nSm frong canh tac ndng nghifp thi nang suit sf cao, dSn din thu nhap cung cao hon ngudi it kinh nghiem (Dzadze P. va ctg, 2012), dieu nay cung ddng nghTa vdi kha nang hoan vta cho TCTD nhieu hon. Vi thi, cac TCTD sfi uu tifn
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TAP CHI PHAT T R I E N KH & CN, TAP 18, S 6 Q l - 2015 cho vay nhimg hg cd lau nam kinh nghigm hon
hg khac.
Gia Ihuyit 3: Kmh nghiem ldm ndng cua hd CO tdc ddng dieang din khd ndng tiip can lin dung chinh ihuc cua nong hp.
X4 [TAISAN]: Tdng tai san sd hint cua hp
Day la tdng tai san thugc sd him ciia hd gia dinh bao gdm nha d, dit thd cu, dat canh tac va cac loai dit khac, Tai san na> phai cd quygn sd htru hpp phap v-a dugc quy gia tuong duong theo Bang gia dit do UBND tinh An Giang cdng bd nam 2012. Bit ddng san dupc xem nhu mpt logi hinh di thi chip htiu hieu nhit ngn khi tdng tai^ san cd gia frj cao thi kha nang va\
dugc vdn tti cac TCTD chinh thirc cunJ cao hon. Ddng thdi, quy md dit canh tac cang ldn thi cang can lao dpng hmi cung nhu diu tu may mdc thiet bi va vat tu ndng nghigp dau vao nhieu nen nhu clu von cao ma ehi cd the cd dugc thdng qua tin dyng chinh thue(Mohamed K., 2003).
Gid Ihuyit 4: Tdng tdi san sa huu cua hd ty te thugn v&i khd ndng iiip can tin dung chinb thiec aia hd
X5 |TIETKIEM|: Tai khoan (ill kifm Tigt kifm la bifn gia. mang gia hj 1 niu hd cd gui tiin lai bit ky TCTD nao trgn dia ban tinh An Giang va mang gia hj 0 nfu hg khdng ed tai khoan liet kiem. 0 mpi sd nudc hen Thi gldi cd van hda tiit kigm. ha\ ihdi quen nil kiem cho dii sd tiin gui ii hay nhiiu va cac ngan hang ciing uu ai hon doi vdi khach hans tien giii mdi khi hp cd nhu clu vay vdn (BarslundM- va cig, 2007) Ngoai ra. tai khoan tiel kifm cdn dugc xem nhu mdt khoan dam bao di thanh toan tiin vay khi din ky.
Gid Ihuyel S: Hp cd gui nin tgi TCTD dupc ky- vpng se lam gia tang kha ndng tiip can ngudn lin dung chinh thuc cua hd.
X6 (KHNONGj: Tham gia cAc chinnig trinh khuyen ndng
Da\ la mdt bien gia nhgn gia trj 1 va 0 cho viec hd cd tham gia va khdng tham gia vao cac chuong frinh khuyin ndng do Chinh phii hoac cac td chiic phi Chinh phii iai frp. Niu hd sia dinh cd iham gia chumig hinh khu.vin ndng thi cd thg duoc tai fro cho vifc iing dyna cdng nghf cai tign. mua ma> mdc. vat tu ndng nghiep dau vao (Yehuala S . 2008).
Gid Ihuyit 6: Tham gia cdc chuang irlnh khuy en ndng anh hitang tich cue din tiip can ngudn lin dung chinh ihiec cua ngitai ndng ddn.
X7 IKHCACHj: Khoang each tir hg din TCTD chinh thirc gin nhit
Bign nay thi hifn khoang each (km) Kr noi cu tni cua hd gia dinh din TCTD gin nhit ma hd biet. Khoang each din TCTD xa sg Iam tang chl phi dl iai. nic la tang chi phi vay vdn. Mat khac. nhung hd ndng dan gin cac td chuc cho vay sg cd loi the hon do cd thi lien he vdi ngudl cho vay df dang va cd nhifu thdng tin tigp can hon nhihig ngudi sdng d nhirng noi .xa hon(Duy V Q.,2012).
Gid Ihuyii 7: Khoang cdch din TCTD cdng gdn thi cdng iang khd ndng nip can tin dung cua ngieai ndng ddn
XS IHOIDOAN): Tham gia td chirc doan thf
Da> la bign gia, nhan gia fri 1 niu thanh vien ciia ho cd tham gia td chirc, hdi doan thg Vi dy: Hdi phu ntj. Hdi ndng dan. Hoi cyu chten binh... va nhan gia tri 0 neu khdng cd tham gia bit ky td chuc doan thf nao d dia phuong Cac thanh vien ciia hdi doan ihi se cd nhlgu CO hdi tiip can thong tin tin dung chinh thuc hon nhihig ngudi khac do cac chuong hinh tai chinh vi md ihudng duac phd bifn thdng qua cac td chirc doan thi (Yehuala S 2008).
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Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Ql - 2015
Gid Ihuyel 8: Tham gia td chuc dodn the cd dnh hu&ng lich cue din kha nang tiep cdn lin dung chinh ihuc ciia hd ndng ddn.
X9 [NHUCAUVAYI: Nhu cau vay vdn eua hp tu cic TCTD chinh thirc trong ba nim qua
Day ta hien nhi phan, nhgn gia hj 1 nfu hp gia dinh cd nhu clu vay d cac TCTD chinh thiic, nhgn gia hj 0 niu khdng cd nhu clu vay tir ngudn nay Lg ty nhign, khi cd nhu cau phat sinh ihi con ngudi se tim each thda man nhu cau dd, Mdt ndng hd cd nhu cau vay vdn d mpt TCTD chinh thiic nao do thi hd se chii dpng tim hieu vi TCTD do cung nhu thli tuc vay va hp Cling sg cd gang dap ung cac yeu cau df TCTD cho hp vay (Duy V Q.,2012).
Gid Ihuyel 9: Hp cd nhu cdu vay vdn & cdc TCTD chinh thuc se ldm ldng kha ndng ilip can ciia hd ddi v&i ngudn do
XIO [LiCHSUTDI: Ljch s^ tin dyng cua h$ gia dinh
Ljch sir tin dyng cua hg la tinh hang vay va ha np vay cita hd frong qua khii, thi hifn uy tin ciia hp frong vigc thanh loan cac khoan vay cho ngan hang. Biin nay se mang gia trj I niu hp cd ljch si> tin dyng xlu, va mang gia fri 0 niu Ijch sii lln dyng ciia hg tdt, Vdi cdng nghe hifn dai nhu hifn nay, Ijch sir tin dung ciia khach hang vay dugc cgp nh^t diy dii, cac ngan hang cd thf de dang fruy cap vao Trung tam d\i lifu tin dung CIC ciia Ngan hang Nha nudc di lly dii lifu vf ljch su vay v6n cua Wiach hang. Vi CO ban, tin dyng la dya Iren uy tin, Niu khach hang thanh loan lai va.'hoac gdc fri han hoac khdng thanh loan, xem nhu cd Hch sii "xlu" vi tin dyng, Thdng thudng, cac ngan hang sg khdng cho vay ddi vdi cac khach hang nay (Sarap K., 1990)
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Gid thuyil 10: Lich su Un dung Idl cua hp cd Idc dpng tich ctrc den khd ndng liep can lin dung chinh thiec cua hp
XII [BAOLANH]: Ngirai bao l3nh cho ho vay v6n
Day la biin gia, nhan gia frj 1 niu hg c6 ngudi dimg ra bao lanh hay dam bao cho khoan vay ma hp d n , va nhgn gia hj 0 nfu khdng cd ngudi bao lanh, Bao lanh vay la mdt hinh thirc gia tang tai san the chap khi vay. Dot vdi nhOTig hd ma tk\ san ciia hp khdng ed hoac khdng dti de bao dam cho khoan vay thi cd thi sii dyng tai san ctia ngudi khac, vdi sy ddng y ciia ngudl dd, df thi chip cho ngan hang. Khi khach hang vay khdng cd kha nSng thanh toan ng, thi tai san dugc diing df bao lanh se dupc xir ly de thanh loan cho khoan vay do (Barslund M., 2007 va Dzadze P va ctg, 2012).
Gid thuyel I J: Cd nguai bdo lanh si ldm gia Idng khd ndng Ilip cgn vo'i tin difng lie cdc ngudn chinh thitc cua ho ndng ddn
X12 ITHUNHAPl: Tdng thu n h | p tfch luy cua hgnongdan
Day la biin lifn tyc, the hifn tdng thu nh|p binh quSn tich liiy cita hd hong thang, dupc
• tinh bang tdng thu nhSp cita ca hg trir di chi phi sinh hoat toi thifu cho cac thanh vifn hong hd;
don vi tinh la hifu ddng. Tong thu nhap ciia hd bao gom thu nhgp ndng nghifp hay thu nhSp tir ket qua hoat ddng san xuat ndng nghifp va thu nhap phi ndng nghiep la tit ca cac ngufin thu nhap khdng phai tir hoat dgng san xult ndng nghifp ctia hp nhu kinh doanh nhd, djch vy ndng nghifp (cay d y , thu hoach,..,), tiin iuong khac, thu tir hogt ddng nghe nghifp khic.
Chi phi sinh boat tdi thifu can cir vao mirc luong CO ban do Nha nudc quy djnh theo Nghj dinh 66/2013/ND - CP cd hifu lyc tir ngay 1/7/2013, Thu nhap cua khich hang vay la ngudn di thanh toan ng vay. Thu nhap tich Ifiy dn djnh dugc xem la nguon thanh to&n np kha
TAP CHi PHAT TRItN KH & CN, TAP 18, SO Q l - 2015 dyng cho khoan vay ngan hang. Ngudn thu
nhap nay sg dugc nhan vifn ngan hang tham djnh, xac minh, hoac cd thi can cu vao phuona an su dung vdn cua khach hang de nghj vay df dy doan thu nhap ttr nguon vdn vay, tir dd xac dinh kha nang thanh toan ng ciia khach hang va ky han cung nhu sd tiin phai thanh toan theo ky (DavisJ. R. va ctg, 1998).
Gia thuyet 12: Tdng thu nhdp tich luy cda hg^ ndng ddn ldc ddng tich cue din khd ndng Uep can tin dung cua ho.
3. PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CLTU Phuong phap chpn mlu nglu nhign dugc sir dung hong nghign ciru nay di thu thap so hfu tir 210 hd ndng dan ciia nam Huyen dugc chpn hfn dja ban tinh An Giang theo tifu chi hon 80% dan cu sdng d vimg ndng thdn Dd la cac Huyen' Chau Thanh, Chau Phii, An Phii, Chp Mdl va Phli Tan. Cudc diiu tra dupc tiin hanh hong khoang thdi gian tir thang 04'20I3 din Ehang 06/2013. Phuang phap diiu ha la phdng vln true tiip cac hp ndng dan blng Bang cau hdi sogn sin dya frfn cac ky thugt va bifn phap td chirc nghien ctru, difu tra, phdng vln, ll\ sd lifu frong nghien cuu ndng thdn. Phuong phap udc Iupng md hinh la phan tich hdi quy binary logistic vdi sy hg giup ciia phin mem thong ke SPSS 18.0.
4. K^T QUA NGHIEN CUU VA THAO LUAN
Trong qua frinh thu thap dir lifu dinh lupng.
sd lifu thu thap cho biin LICHSUTD - ljch sir tin dyng cua hp gia dinh - khdng cd y nghia thong ke do chi cd 1 hudng hop cd lich sir tin dyng xau frong tdng so 210 hd dugc diiu tra.
Digu nay phan anh loi do phuong phap chgn mlu thuan tifn. Day chinh la hgn chf ciJa nghign ciru. Do do. khi phan tich md hinh dinh lugng, biin LICHSUTD khong dupc dua vao kifm djnh de khdng lam nhifu mo hinh, anh
hudng dfn cac bifn khac. Vi vay, md hinh kiim dinh chi con Igi i I biin.
Kifm djnh Omnibus cho thiy Sig. < 0,0i (dp tin cay 99%) nen md hinh lya chpn la phii hpp tdt Ddng thdi Bang phan loai dy bao ciia md hinh nghien cuu cho thiy tj' If du doan diing Clia toan bd md hinh la 93,8%. Ty If nay kha cao, chimg td do phii hpp kha tdt cua md hlnh tdng thi
Kft qua ctia kiem dinh Wald (Bang A) cho thiy ed 6 biin ddc lap hrong quan khdng cd j nghTa thdng ke, hay khdng anh hudng din kha nang tiep can ngudn tin dung chinh thuc cua ndng hg mlu, la gidi tinh, hinh dp hpc vln, kmh nghiem lam ndng. tiet kifm, tham gia hoat dpng khuyin nong va khoang each din cac TCTD Digu nay cung phii hgp vdi thyc ti edng tac tin dyng hien nay va phti hgp vdi cac nghign cuu trudc dd. Trong cdng tac thim dinh cho vay, TCTD khdng quan tam den gidi tinh ciia khach hang va frong chinh sach cho vay ndng nghifp nong thdn cting khdng xem xgt den van de gidi tinh Trd ngai ve hinh do hpc vfn frong qua hinh hoan tit thii tuc va> vdn cd thf dugc khie phuc de dang blng each nhd ngudl than giiip dd: hon niia. nhan vien TCTD ciing nhiet tinh hudng din khach hang hong qua trinh thuc hifn thit tuc vay; hoac ho cd thi nhd dfn cac dich vu ngfn hang do tu nhan md ra Trudc da>. san xult ndng nghiep d Vigt Nam chil yiu dua vao kmh nghiem thuc ti dugc Iich lti> qua cac thi hf. Nhung hifn nay.
ddi mat vdi skn di biin ddi khi hau. ihifn tai, thien dichdiln bifn ngay cang phiic tap va khd ludng thi vifc ung dung tten bd khoa hgc kj Ihugi vao san xult da mang lgi hieu qua thuc ti
Tuy nhien. tinh bao thu ciia ngudi ndng dan rat cao, nhit la nhtmg ngudi ldn tudi cang bao thit hon. nen rit khd trong vifc dua cdng nghf mdi din vdi hp. Trong khi nhimg nguoi frf tudi, mac dil it kinh nghifm canh tac hon nhung nha> ben hong vifc img dung cdng nghf
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Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Q1 - 2015
mdi. Vi vay, khdng thg ndi rang nhimg ngudi cd lau nam kinh nghifm san xult ndng nghifp sg san xuat gidi hon nhiing ngudi cd it nam kinh nghifm iam ndng. Vg van df tai khoan lift kigm, vdi dpc thtt vSn hda ciia Vift Nam, thdi quen giri lift kifm hay ndi rdng hon la thdi quen su dyng cac djch vy ngan hang van chua phd bifn. Thay vi tich Itiy blng hinh thuc giri tiit kifm thi ngudi dan lgi thich d t giii thu nhap du dudi dang tiin mat, vang bac, dd trang sire, ., (theo Dieu tra muc sdng ddn cu Viel Nam 2010). Do dd, cac TCTD khdng de c^p dfn tai khoan lift kifm hong chinh sach cho vay cua minh, Ve vln di khuyin ndng, cac
Bangl. Kifm
chuang hinh khuyen ndng do Trung tSm Khuyfn ndng fryc thupc Sd Ndng nghifp vS Phat frifn Ndng thdn tinh An Giang chii yiu thyc hifn hudng dan, chuyfn giao ky thu(it canh tac cho ndng dan, ngoai ra khdng cd ngudn lyc tai hg df ngudi dan ting dyng cdc kjl thugt dd vao thuc tiln canh tac do diiu kifn ngan sdch danh cho ndng nghifp d nudc ta cdn hgn che, Khoang cdch din cac TCTD xa hay gin khdng anh hudng den kha nang tiip cgn tin dyng ciia hp do co sd ha ting giao Ihdng nong thdn hifn nay da so da dugc nang d p nhya hda ho^c bf tdng hda nfn vifc di lgi doi vdi ngudi dan ndng thdn khong cdn khd khan ntta, djnh Wald
C&e biin trong md hinh df Step
Sig. Exp(B) GIOITINH
HOCVAN KNGHIEM TAISAN TIETKIEM KHNONG KHCACH HOIDOAN NHUCAUVAY BAOLANH THUNHAP Constant
,366
",012 ,003 ,004 ,289 -,583 ,064 3,767 5,875 2,998 ,517
,215 ,788
,087 ,018 1 ,893 '023 ,019 ,891 ,002 4,825 I ,028
cac nhSn to dnh hirdng den kha nSng tiip c§n tin dyng chfnh thirc ciia nong hp:
Kft qua ciia kifm djnh Wald cho thay c6 5 bifn dpc lap nrcmg quan c6 y nghTa th6ng kg vdi bifn phy thupc la TAISAN, HOIDOAN NHUCAUVAY, BAOLANH va THUNHAP
Trang 34
1.442 ,988 1,003 1.005 1,449 ,040 ,842 ],335
•748 ,607 1 ,436 ,558 ''•'f ,140 ,708 1,066 '969 15,121 1 ,000 43,234 1'086 29,284 ,000 355,966
'999 9,007 1 ,003 20,040 '240 4,624 ,032 1,676 2,089 16,964 ] ,000 ,000
4.1. Tong tai san cua hp
Bien TAISAN cd Sig = 0,028 < 0,05. Do dd, biin TAISAN tuong quan cd y nghTa vdi biin phy thupc TIEPCAN vdi dg tin c^iy 95%, Dong thdi, dau ciia hf sd hdi quy cung nhu ky vpng. Tong tai san sd hiJu ciia hg ty If thu§n vdl kha nang tiep can tin dyng chinh thiic ciia hp Theo Dzadze, biin nky khdng cd y nghTa
TAP CHI PHAT TRI^N KH & CN, TAP 18, S 6 Q1 - 2015 thdng ke ddi vdi miu nghifn cuu. Nhung qua
nghifn cuu cua Davis R. J. va c ^ (1998) cho thay gia hi tai san cao ciia hd vay sg hip dan cac^ ngan hang hem. Nghifn .cihj ciia Nguyfn Qudc Nghi (2011) vi kha nang tiip can hn dyng chinh ditrc cua hd ngheo d tinh Ddng Thap cung kit luan tdng tai san cua hd cd tac ddng cimg chifu vdi bifn tiip can. 0 Vift Nam, cac TCTD thudng yfu d u phai cd tai san dam bao cho mdn vay. Vi vay, khi tdng tai san sd hifu cua hp cao thi kha nang cd dugc khoan vay ciing tang theo.
4.2. Tham gia hpi doin tbl d dja phinmg Biin HOIDOAN cd Sig. = 0,000 < 0,01 Do dd, biin HOIDOAN hrong quan cd ^ nghta vdi bign phy thu^e TIEPCAN vdi dg tin cay 99%, Dau cua he sd hoi quy cung gidng nhu ky vpng. Tham gia hgi doan thi cd anh hudng tich cyc din kha nang tifp can tin dyng chinh thiic Clia hg ndng dan. Theo Nguyfn Qudc Nghi (2011), "hd cd tham gia cfc td chdc doan thf d dja phuang thi kha nang tiip can ngudn tin dyng chinh thirc sS cang cao". Diiu nay phii hgp d mdi hudng Vift Nam do vai hd ciia cae td chirc doan thi da duge phai huy tdt. Cac chuong hinh qudc gia, cdc td chtic phi chmh phli thudng thdng qua cac td chirc doan thi nay df thyc thi cac chuong hinh tin dyng cua minh, ma ddi mijmg myc tifu thudng la ndng nghiep ndng thdn nhim cai thifn dieu kifn kinh ti xa hgi ciia khu vuc nky.
4.3. Nhu clu vay v6n tir cfie TCTD chfnh thi^c cua hp
Bien NHUCAUVAY cd Sig. = 0,000 <
0,01. Do dd, bifn NHUCAUVAY hrong quan cd y nghia vdri bifn phy thupc TIEPCAN vdi dg tin c|y 99%. DIU ciia hf sd hdi quy diing nhu ky vpng. Hg cd nhu clu vay vdn d cac TCTD chfnh thiic se lam tang kha nang tiip c§n cua hp ddi vdi ngu6n dd. Kit qua nay di ngugc Igi nghifn ciru cua Dzadze, dng cho rSng biin nay khong knh hudng dfn kha nang tifp
can nguon tin dyng chinh thuc. Nhung thyc t i digu ha cac hg ndng dan mlu cho thiy, frong 98 trudng hgp cd nhu cau vay vdn tir ngudn tin dyng chinh thiic, co din 92 hd tiip can dugc ngudn nay, chiim ty hgng ifn dfn 93,88%.
Theo nghifn cim ctia nhiiu nha khoa hgc, nhu cau la yeu td thiic diy con ngudi hanh ddng, chi phdi manh me dfn ddi sdng tam ly ndi chung, din hanh vi ciia con ngudi ndi nfng.
Nhu cau cang d p bach thi kha nSng chi phdi con ngudi cang cao (Tir dlin Bdch khoa todn thu m& vi.wikipedia.org) Difu nay da giai thich phin nao ly do vi sao khi ndng hp cd nhu cau vay vdn tir cac TCTD chinh thirc thi kha nang ndng hg tifp can ngudn nay tang len.
4.4. Ngirdi bao lanh
Biin BAOLANH cd Sig. = 0,003 < 0,01.
Do dd, bifn BAOLANH hrong quan cd y nghTa vdi biin phy thudc TIEPCAN vdi dp tin cay 99% Dau he sd hdi quy duong nhu ky vpng, Cd ngudi bao lanh sg lam gia tang kha nang tifp cgn vdi tin dyng tir cac ngudn chinh thtic ciia hp ndng dan. Nhu da di cap, bao lanh vay' vdn bang tai san la mdt hinh thiic thf thip ciia bfn thu ba nhim gia tang tai san dam bao cho ngudi vay. Chinh vi vay, niu cd dugc ngudl bao lanh thi kha nang dupc vay vdn ciia ndng hg sg tang.
4.5. Tong thu nhap ticb ifiy Biin THUNHAP ed Sig. = 0,032 < 0,05 Do do, blin BAOLANH hiong quan cd y nghTa vdl biin phu thugc TIEPCAN vdi do tin cay 95%. Dau cua hf sd hoi quy duong nhu ky vpng Tdng thu nhap hch luy ciia hf ndng dan tac ddng ttch cyc din kha nang tiip cgn tin dyng cita hp.Kit qua nghien cuu nky cung phii hgp vdi kit qua nghign ctiu ciia Davis R. J va ctg (1998) va nghien cim ctia Nguyfn Qudc Oanh va Pham Ttn My Dung (2010), Thu nhap cd anh hudng din kha nSng tiip can tin dyng ciia nong hg, Trong quy hinh cho vay cua cac TCTD, tham dinh kha nang tra ng ciia khach Trang 35
Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Ql • 2015 hang vay la bit budc nham muc dich giam
thigu nil ro, bao toan ngudn vdn hogt dpng cho TCTD; ma ngudn chinh yiu dam bao kha nang tra no la thu nhap ciia khach hang sau khi hir di
rPCY=l)
chi phi sinh hogt, dd chlnh la nguon tra ng kha thi.Tir kit qui h^i quy, ta cd md hlnh output nhu sau.
log PCY=0)J •8,603+0,004T AI SA N+3,767HOI DOA N+5,87SN H UC A U VAY +2,998BAOLANH+0,SI7THUNHAP
Hay, phuong hinh dupc bifu diin d dgng khac:
g(-8.60J*fl.01WT\IS,AS+3,76THOIDOA\+5 P(Y-1)
P(Y=0)
Dya vao thdng tin frfn cpt Exp(B), tire e^
ctia Bang A di diln dich y nghTa cila cae hf s6 hdi quy ddi vdi biin TAISAN nhu sau: niu tdng tai san ctia hp tang Ifn mdt trifu dong, vd:
diiu kifn eac biin khac khdng ddi. thi t)- sd giiia xac sual tiip can dugc va khdng tiip c^n dupc tin dyng chlnh thirc ciia ndng h$ s5 tang
'SNHl CAl.VAS •••2,9!)8B,\OLANH+0.5I7THI NH\P)
thfm 1,005 lan, Diln dfch tuong ty cho cic bien cdn lgi.
V|n dyng md hinh cho myc dfch dv b^o kha nang tiep c$n tin dyng
Vdi xkc suit tiip c dupc tinh nhusau:
1 tin dyng chinh thiJc
E(Y/X) = - ~ , frong dd:
z-8,603+0,004TAISAN+3,767HOlDOAN+5,875NHUCAUVAY+2,998BAOLANH+0,517THUNHAP
^ Mpi hg ndng dan mudn biit xem xac suit nSy hay khdng, thi hp c6 thi du doan kha ning tiep can tin dyng chinh thirc cua minh la bao tiip egn ngu6n tfn dung chfnh' thiic ctia minh, nhieu de quygt djnh ngn tiep cgn ngu6n vin vdi cac kjch ban khac nhau, nhu sau:
Bang 2: Dy b^o kha nSng tilp cgn tfn dyng chfnh thiic cQa hp khi tai san thay d^i lAISAN(frd) 200 500 1000 1200 n n n HOIDOAN (l=cd)
NHUCAU (0=khdng) BAOLANH (O-khdng) THUNHAP (tr.d)
Khdng Khong Khdng
^ Mpl ndng hp cd tdng gm frj tai san 200 higu dong. cd Iham gia td chuc doan thi d dia phuong va cd thu nhgp tich lijv i trigu ddngthang thi xac suit tigp can tin dung chinh thuc Clia hp dupc du doan la 2.88%, tiic la khong Ilip can dugc ngudn lin dung nay.
Trang 36 '
70,70% 78,26% 84,30%
Nhung neu tdng gia frj tai san cua hp tang Ifn 1,2 ly ddng, vdi eac diiu kifn khac khdng doi, thi xac suit tiip can tin dyng chinh thiic eua h$
dugc dy doan la 61,8%, nghTa la hp tiip c$n dupc nguon tin dung nay. Tuy nhifn, day chi la
TAP CHi PHAT TRItN KH & CN. TAP 18, S 6 Q l - 2015 kha nang tifp can dugc dy doan, va dy doan
nay cd kha nSng dting chi 93.8%.
5. KET LUAN, HAM Y QUAN LY VA HAN CHE CUA NGHIEN CU*U
Qua nghifn cuu 210 hg ndng dan hgn dja ban tinh An Giang, cho hily nam nhan td anh hudng ddn kha nang tiip can ttn dyng chinh thuc Clia ndng ho la tdng gia hj lai san, thanh vign Id chirc doan thf. nhu clu vay von tir cac TCTD chinh thuc. ngudi bao lanh va thu nhgp tich lu> that sy anh hudng din kha nang ttip can tin dung chinh thuc cda ndng hp tinh An Giang, Cac nhan Id nav cd tac ddng tfch cyc den tifp can. trong dd viec phat sinh nhu d u vay vdn d cac TCTD chinh thiic cd tac dgng mgnh mg nhit.
Vi vay, df phat triin thj frudng tin dung ndng thdn, tao diiu kifn cho ngudi ndng dan nang cao kha nang tiip can tin dung chinh ihiic nham tranh thii dugc nguon von vdi chi phi hgp ly de dau tu san xult. nang cao thu nhgp va phai trifn kinh ti dia phuong Ihi d n phai thyc hien nhiiu giai phap dong bd. vdi su phdi hpp Clia cac ben cd lign quan nhu Nha nudc, cac to chirc doan thf va cac TCTD.
Phai nang cao gia frj tai san dam bao hoac da dang hda hinh thuc thi chap sg lam gia tana kha nang ttip can tin dyng. Nang cao hifu qua lien kft bdn nha, trong dd Nha nuoc ddng vai hd chit dao, diiu phdi, tgo hfn kit chat che hong mdi trucmg mang tinh phap 1> cao aiiia doanh nghifp va hd san xult di hgp dong bao tieu san pham cd ihi dugc xem xet hd thanh tai san dam bao tha>' ihi cho Gil> chting nhan QSDD gin nhu la hinh thiic thi chip duv nhit nhu hien nay. D6i vdi cac TCTD, d n linh hoat frong yfu cau ve tai san thi chip va dinh gia tai san the chap theo gia thi trudng thay vi ap theo khung gia Nha nude quv djnh thudng thip hon gia tri thj frudng rit nhifu. gay thift thdi cho ngudi di va>. Thyc hifn duoc dieu na,v cd thi
nang cao han muc cho vay va md rdns fchach hang. Phat trifn Ioai hinh ttn dyng cho thuf tai chinh frong ITnh vue ndng nghiep ndng thdn giiip cac hd san xuai diu or ddi mdi thiit bj, cdng ndif vdi qu\- md von Idn. thdi gian cho diue hung, dai han (5 - 10 nam) dap img nhu cau vdn. thuc hifn co gidi hda ndng nghifp ndng thdn.
cac td chiic hdi doan thi d dia phuong cln tang cudng mdi quan he vdi cac TCTD di ndng dan cd thf tiep can ngudn vdn ttn dung chinh thtic thdng qua hinb thirc tin chip ma khdna phai If thudc vao tai san the chip. Ddng thdi.
cac td chuc na> can phat huy hon nira vai hd ctia minh de thai sy frd thanh canh tay noi dai cua cac TCTD. cae co quan. ban nganh frong linh. va thanh be dd cho cac thanh vien d i hg that sy dugc hudng Igi khi tham gia vao cac td chiic doan the.
Cac TCTD can cai thien cac thit tyc cho vay theo hudng don gian hda. Ddng thdi. thyc hien tdt cdng tac quang ba san phim nhim dua cac dich vu ngan hang den gin vdi ngudi dan ndng thdn hon Tir dd. se hudng dugc nhu clu vay vdn ctia ngudi dfn den cac TCTD moi khi cd nhu cau tin dung phat smh. Ddng thdi, khdng ngn ap dyng hinh thiic lai phat hay phi phat ua trudc han ddi vdi vay ndng nghifp ndng thdn Mdt so Ngan hang TMCP hien nay vln cdn ap dyng hinh thtic phi nay ddi vdi ngudi vay tien thuc hifn thanh toan ng frudc thdi han va>. gay mat long tin d ngudi dan ddi vdi TCTD chinh thuc. dac bift la nong dan ndng thdn vdi frinh dp dan hi thip, hp khdng thi hiiu dugc iv do vi sao lgi bi phat hong khi minh cd thanh > ua no sdm nhu thf. Tir do, div ngudi dan rdi xa TCTD chmh thiic di tim din hmh thuc cho vav phi chinh thuc.
Ben cgnh dd. cac TCTD cln don gian hda hinh thiic bao lanh. Mac dii theo qu> djnh phap luaL ngudi bao lanh va ngudi dugc bao lanh khdng can cd quan he huygt thdng. chi d n cd Trang 37
Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Q1 - 2015
su ddng thuan mdt each tit nguyen frong vifcbao lanh thi hanh vi bao lanh da cd hifu lyc phap ly. Tuy nhifn, mdt sd TCTD igi yfu clu gitia ngudi bao lanh va ngudi duoc bao lanh phai cd mdi quan hf huygt thdng, nen da lam han che vifc tiep can tin dyng ciia ngudi dan.
Vf phia Nha nudc, tgo mdi irudng phap ly hieu qua de giiip cho viec bao lanh, bao dam that su an toan gitra cac bfn cd lifn quan. Cac td chtic doan thi dia phuong nang cao vai frd va hifu qua hoat ddng ctia minh df thai sy la clu ndi gitia cac thanh vifn va cac TCTD di cd thi thyc hien bao lanh blng hinh thiic ttn chap cho cac hgi vien.
Vf khia cgnh vT md, cln ban hanh thfm c^c chinh sach hd trg df khuyen khich diu tu ctia cac lyc lugng xa hpi vao khu vyc ndng thdn nhu uu dai thui, don gian hda thit tyc diu tu Dam bao diu ra va binh dn gia ndng san la diiu kifn quan trpng df ndng dan chii dpng va ty ttn
huy ddng cac ngudn npi lyc cho phat triin san xult, tir dd dn dinh va nang cao thu nhjlp. Diy manh nghifn ciru cdng nghe sinh hgc df tao ra nhimg con gidng, cay frdng mang lai nang suit, chat lugng cao. Ve chinh sach vT md, chfnh quyfn dja phuong can chii dgng ttm dau ra cho cac hoat ddng nganh nghe truyin thdng ciia dja phuong, khai thac v^ phat frifn cac nganh nghf mdi tao co hdi cho ngudi dan cd them vifc lam hong thdi gian ndng nhan, gdp phan tang thu nhgp va tang ngudn thu ngan sach dja phucmg df tai diu tu phat hifn ndng thdn,
Tuy nhifn, do gidi han vi thdi gian va kinh phi nfn nghifn ciiu cdn mdt sd hgn chi vi chpn mau va khdng dua hit cac nhan td khde cd thf anh hudng dfn kha nang tifp cgn tin dyng chinh thiic ciia ndng hg vao md hinh kiim djnh, c l n phai dugc khic phuc frong cac nghifn ciru tifp theo.
TAI L l f u THAM KHAO Tiing Vift
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[2] Joanna Ledgerwood (2006), Hoat dgng ngan hang bin vimg cho ngudi nghgo- Cdm nang hogi dpng ldi chinh vi md, Nxb.Lao dpng - Xa hgi Ha Ndi.
[3] Nguygn Qudc Nghi (2011), "Kha nang Iiip cgn ngudn tin dyng chinh thuc cua hf ngheo'', Tgp chi Ngdn hdng sd 7 thang 4/2011.
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trudng hgp nghifn ciru d vimg c§n ngogi thanh Ha Ndi", Tgp chi Khoa hpc vd Phdt tnin 2010 Truang Dpi hpc Ndng nghi4p Hd Npi, tap 8, s6 1 • 170 • 177, [7], Tdng cyc thdng kf (2010), Kit qua khao
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