TRUNG QUOC DAY:
TAG DONG DEN HAN QUOC VA NHAT BAN
PHAM THAI OUdC*
CHU PHUDNG QUYNH"
Torn tat: Chti di Trung Qudc trdi day vd tdc ddng cua sir trdi day ndy ndi chung da dugre du ludn trong nu&c vd qudc ti bdn din tir nhiiu ndm nay. Tuy nhien, bdi viit ndy ehi mong mudn bu&c ddu ddnh gid tdc dgng eua sir trdi day eua Trung Qudc din hai nu&c trong khu vuc Ddng Bdc A Id Nhdt Bdn vd Hdn Qudc.
Tir khda: Trung Qudc, Trdi day, Tac dgng, Han Qudc, Nhat Ban
1. Su- troi day ciia T r u n g Quoc Cd nhidu cdng trinh nghian ciru vilt vl sy troi day cua mgt sd nudc nhu Trung Qudc, An Dg, cung nhu cua mgt sd nudc khac.
Ngudi ta cung binh luan nhidu vd sy trdi day ciia Trung Qudc la trdi day hda binh hay trdi day khdng hda binh. Tuy nhidn rit it thiy tac gia ctia cac bai viat nay ly giai tha nao la trdi day.
Chiing tdi cho ring, sy trdi day ciia mdt qudc gia, phai bao gdm nhtirng ydu td sau day:
Thiir nhlt, qudc gia dd tang trudmg nhanh, lidn tuc, trong nhilu ndm va diau nay lam gia tang tilm lyc kinh tl, chinh tri ciia ban than qudc gia dugc ndi dan. Day la tian da quan trgng cho sy trdi day.
Trong mdt thap ky trd lai day, vd mirc tang trudmg trung binh, Trung Qudc dugc xIp vao nhdm cac nudc tang trudmg cao nhat thi gidi. DIU nhu-ng nam 2000, kinh td Trung Qudc tdng trudng 8-10% nam. Cudi
thap ky, nam 2010, trong khi da phan cua thi gidi bi chim sau trong khiing hoang, tri tre vdi nhidu nen kinh tl tang trudng am thi' Trung Qudc van duy tri muc tang 9,5%, thudc loai cao nhat thd gidi. Nhd tang trudng cao, Trung Qudc da lap ky luc vd rugt dudi cac nudc di trudc, tang thir hang thd gidi xdp theo quy md kinh td.
Thir hai, qudc gia dugc ndi ddn nhd tang trudng nhanh, tang tidm lyc kinh ta, chinh tri da thu hep khoang each vdi nhidu nudc phat tridn hon, da dudi kip va cd sy vugt trdi vl mdt vai (hoac nhidu) chi sd, it nhat la tren mdt hoac nhidu khia canh nhu kinh ta, chinh tri, (quan sy, van hda...) so vdi mdt hoac sd nudc ldm d pham vi khu vyc va the gidi. Cd nhilu quan didm khac nhau \e cac tiau chi cho mdt nudc Idm nhu cac tidu chi \e kinh ta, va chinh tri, quan sy, \% anh hudng ciia nudc do trong cac tp chuc qudc td chii ydu nhu: Lien Hgp Qudc (UN), Quy Tiln te qudc tl (IMF), hay tinh ca thyc lyc cimg va thyc lyc mem...
' PGS. TS Vi^n Kinh t^ v4 chfnh trj the gi6i
" ThS, Vi§n Kinh t^ v4 chinh trj thi gidi
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Hinh 1: Toe do tang GDP cua Trung Qudc 2001 - 2011 (%)
| - ^ ° D P I
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mdt sd tai lieu cua Trung Qudc cho ring mdt nudc dugc coi la nudc Idn khi nudc dd dugc coi la mdt cyc trong thd gidi da cyc hi?n nay, hay dugc khoac trdn minh chiir Cudng trong the gidi dugc xem la nhat sieu da cudng hien nay- tire la cd GDP tir 1 ngan ty USD trd Idn va tdng thuong mai qudc te it nhat tir 500 ty USD. Ndu theo tiau chi nay thi nam 2011, tha gidi cd 13 nudc Idn la:
My, Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Due, Phap, Anh, Italia, Canada, An Do, Nga, An Do, Australia, Mehico va Han Qudc.
Nam 2001, GDP ciia Trung Qudc chi dimg thir 9 thi gidi (GDP dat gin 10000 ty NDT). Tuy nhidn din nam 2005, tdng GDP ciia Trung Qudc da vuon Idn dirng thir 4 tha gidi, sau khi vugt qua Anh va Phap. Nam 2007, tdng GDP cua Trung Qudc da vugt Dire, vuon lan dirng thir 3 tha gidi. Nam 2010, tdng GDP ciia Trung Qudc tidp tuc vugt qua mirc ciia Nhat, vuon len dung thu 2 ihl gidi. Nam 2011 GDP ciia Trung Qudc dat 47.156 ty NDT (tuong duong 7,48 ngan ty USD), gap 4,72 lan mirc cua nam 2001'.
Tir dirng thir 9 the gidi vao dau thap ky, Trung Qudc da vuon len dimg thir 2 thd gidi.
Tinh theo NDT thi sau 10 nam (2001-2011),
' Chu Thuy Lien, Bdo cdo thu&ng n 20H. Hi Npi 2012.
7 Trung Quoc n
tdng GDP cua Trung Qudc tang 4,72 lln.
Cdn tinh theo USD thi tdng GDP cua Trung Qudc tang khoang 6 lan. Tdng gia tri cdng nghiep cua Trung Qudc tang tir 4.260 ty NDT nam 2001 len 16.003 ty NDT nam 2010. Dy tru- ngoai hdi tang 12 lan trong 10 nam, tir 212,2 ty USD nam 2001 lan 2.847,3 ty USD cudi nam 2010. Day la biau hien rd ret nhat \Q sy trdi day cua Trung Qudc.
Thir ba, sy gia tang vugt trdi vd quy md kinh td, anh hudng chinh trj... ciia qudc gia ndi ddn da gay lac ddng (trdn mdt sd phuong dien) ddn nhiau nudc khac, tao ra sy chii y, su ddi phd cua nhidu nudc d pham vi khu vyc va toan cau.
Ndu mdt nudc/mdt ndn kinh ta chi cd dugc mdt hoac hai trong ba ydu td tran thi van chua dugc xem la da troi day. Chinh vi vay ma su trdi day cua mdt hoac mdt vai qudc gia dugc xem nhu hien tugng bat thudng, khdng phai thap nidn nao trong lich su nhan loai cung dian ra sy troi day kinh ta, chinh tri. Mdt hoac mdt sd nan kinh ta cd quy md nhd (nhu cac ndn kinh ta NIEs Ddng A), da tirng tang trudng nhanh, lidn tuc, trong nhieu nam, da gia tang tiam lyc nhieu lan, nhung chua dudi kjp va cd sy vugt trdi vd mdt vai (hoac nhidu) chi sd, it nhat la tren mgt hoac nhilu khia canh nhu kinh tl, chinh
14 NGHIEN CUfU D 6 N G BflC fl. SO 2(14(>) 2-2013
tri, (quan sy, van hda...) so vdi nhilu qudc gia khac d pham vi khu vyc. Va cung chua gay tac ddng ldm trdn pham vi loan clu budc nhidu nudc phai chii y hoac phai ddi phd. Vi the Han Qudc, Dai Loan, Thai Lan... trong nhti-ng nam 1980-1990 chi dugc xem la nhtrng "nan kinh ta mdi ndi" (New Emerging Economies), chiir chua phai dugc coi la trdi day (rising).
Chiing tdi cho ring trong khoang thdi gian tir 1991 ddn nay, dac biet trong thap nian dau tha ky XXI, Trung Qudc da dat dugc sy "trdi day" vdi nhidu bilu hien rd rang.
Danh gia va thap ky diu tian ciia thi ky XXI, theo nghian ciru cua The Global Language Monitor, mdt td chirc theo ddi bao chi va truyen thdng cua My, sy trdi day ciia Trung Qudc trd thanh cudng qudc kinh tl la dd tai thu hiit sy chii y Idn nhat ciia du luan trong thap ky diu thi ky XXI, vugt qua ca cudc chidn Iraq va vu tan cdng khiing bd ngay ll/9/200ll Reuters trich Idi Paul JJ Payack, chii tich Global Language Monitor, binh luan: "Khdng cd gi bat ngd, su chuydn minh cua Trung Qudc da danh bai mgi tin tiirc khac trong thap ky nay, ke ca tin \Q chien tranh, tai hga kinh ta hay tham hga thien nhian".
2. Tac dong cua Trung Quoc trdi day den H^n Quoc va Nhat Ban
Su trdi day ciia Trung Qudc, dgc biit tir ddu nhirng ndm 2000 dd ldm thay ddi chieu hu&ng van dgng cua thuang mgi qudc te &
Ddng Bdc A. Vdi Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, Trung Qudc da vugt qua My dd trd thanh bgn hang thuong mai sd I cua cac ndn kinh tl nay. Nam 1995, xult khiu cua Han Qudc
^ Nhihig tin tiic n6i b?t nh^t 10 nam qua, http://vne xpress.net/GL/rhe-gioi/Phan-tich/2009/12y3BA 16756/
sang My gip hon 2 lln mirc ma nudc nay xult khiu sang Trung Qudc (24 ty USD so vdi 10 ty USD). Tuy nhidn din nam 2004, tinh hinh dao ngugc, luc nay Han Qudc xult khiu sang Trung Qudc 50 ty USD, so vdi muc xult khiu sang My chi cd 46 ty USD.
Nhat Ban van xuat khau sang My nhilu hem sang Trung Qudc, tuy nhian, cung xult hien xu hudng hudng vl Trung Qudc. Nam 1995, xuat khau cua Nhat Ban sang My gip hon 3 lan mirc Nhat Ban xult sang Trung Qudc (123 ly USD va 29 ty USD). Tuy nhidn din nam 2004, xuat khiu cua Nhat Ban sang My dat 130 ty USD, nhung xult khiu cua Nhat Ban sang Trung Qudc luc nay da dat mirc 74 ty USD. Trong 9 nam, xult khiu ciia Nhat Ban sang My chi tang 7 ty USD, cdn trong thdi gian nay, xuat khiu cua Nhat Ban sang Trung Qudc tang din 45 ty USD.
Xuat khau tir Trung Qudc sang Nhat Ban, Han Qudc cung dien ra tinh hinh tuong ty.
Tir nam 1995 ddn nam 2004, xuat khiu cua Trung Qudc sang Nhat tang hon 3 lln, tir 28 Idn 94 ty USD. Trong thdi gian nay xult khiu cua My sang Nhat Ban lai giam tir 64 ty USD xudng cdn 54 ty USD. Xult khiu cua Trung Qudc sang Han Qudc tir mirc 7 ty nam 1995 da tang lan 29 ty USD nam 2004, tang hon 4 lan. Trong khi xuat khau cua My sang Han Qudc trong giai doan nay chi tang cd 1 ly USD, tir 25 ty USD Idn 26 ty USD.
Xuat khau tir Trung Qudc va My sang Nhat Ban Ban, Han Qudc dang dien ra cac xu hudng trai ngugc nhau. Trong khi Trung Qudc tang manh xuat khau sang cac thi trudng nay thi My lai tang nhap khau tir cac thi trudng nay.
Xu hu&ng chuyin dich ede dong thirang mgi ehinh ciia mgt sd ddi tdc Ddng Bdc A xa r&i My, den v&i Trung Qudc cho thay quan
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he phu thudc thuong mai chuyin sang Trung Qudc. Khdng chi cd Nhat Ban, Dai Loan va Han Qudc dang trd ndn ngay cang phu thudc hon vao Trung Qudc, ma chinh Trung Qudc ciing trd ndn phu thudc nhilu hem vao cac nen kinh td nay trong cac boat ddng xuat va nhap khiu. Rit nhilu trong sd hang nhap khau vao Trung Qudc, hon ntra la may mdc thiet bi va ban thanh pham - cd y nghTa sdng cdn ddi vdi cdng nghiep Trung Qudc, lam tang kha nang xuat khau cua Trung Qudc sang My va sang cac thi trudng khac. Va xuat khau sang Trung Qudc lai la ngudn quan trgng cau thanh ndn tdng nhu cau ciia Nhat Ban.
Mirc do phu thugc vao nhap khiu cua Nhat Ban, Han Qudc tir Trung Qudc tang len
nhanh chdng. Ty le nhap khiu tir Trung Qudc trong long nhap khiu ciia Nhat Ban tir 4,7% nam 1986 len 11,6% nam 1996 va len 20,4% nam 2006. Nam 1986, Trung Qudc chidm thu hang thap trong danh muc cac nudc ma Nhat Ban nhap khau nhilu nhlt thi dan nam 1996, thii hang nay tang lan thu 2 va dan nam 2006 tang lan sd 1 ^
Tuong ting, ty Id nhap khau ciia d Han Qudc va Trung Qudc gan nhu bing 0 ndm 1986 da tang Idn 5,7% nam 1996 va dat mure 15,7% nam 2006. Tuong limg, Trung Qudc la ngudn nhap khau Idn thir 3 ciia Han Qudc nam 1996, thir hang nay da tang lan thu hai nam 2006.
Hinh 2: Tdng kim ngach thuong mai Han Quoc-Trung Qudc (2000-2011)
2000 2001 2002 2003 20O4 2005 2006 2007 2008 20O9 2010 2011
Ngudn: KITA
Nam 1992 tdng thuong mai Trung Han chi dat 5 ti USD, nhung nam 2000 con sd da la 31 ty USD. Nhilu nam tir sau 2002, mau djch Trung Han tang rat manh, vdi muc tang tren 30% (xem bang trdn). Nam 2010 thuang mai Trung - Han dat 188 ti USD,
' Ellen L. Frost, China' s rising influence in Asia:
Implication for US Policy, Strategic Forum, No 231, April
nam 2011 dat 250 ti USD. Tir nam 2003 dan nay, Trung Qudc da vugt qua My de trd thanh ddi tac thuong mai ldm nhat ciia Han Qudc. Ddi vdi Trung Qudc, Han Qudc la ddi tac thuong mai thiir 4 sau Hoa Ky, Nhat Ban va Hdng Kdng. Thuomg mai ciia Han Qudc vdi Trung Qudc tucmg duong vdi mirc ciia Han Qudc- Hoa Ky va Han Qudc- Nhat Ban.
Trdn thyc tl, thuomg mai Trung Qudc - Han
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Qudc ldm gap 4 lan thuomg mai ciia Trung Qudc vdi Nga. Han Qudc va Trung Qudc da tirng dat ra muc tieu kim ngach thuong mai 200 ty USD vao nam 2012 va dy kiln nam 2015 cd thi dat 300 ti USD. Trong ITnh vyc dau tu, mgt lan ntira Trung Qudc la dilm din sd I cua Han Qudc.
Den cudi nam 2011, Han Qudc xuat khau sang Trung Qudc dat 116,8 ty USD va nhap khau tir Trung Qudc dat 71,6 ty USD, tang dang kl tir 18,4 ly USD va 12,7 ty USD nam 1992. Dd thj trdn cho thay trong thuong mai
vdi Han Qudc, Trung Qudc lidn tuc phai chiu tham hut. Tir nam 2003 din nay - chi 10 nam sau khi binh thudng hda quan he ngoai giao giira hai nudc - Trung Qudc da vugt qua My dd trd thanh ddi tac thuong mai ldm nhat cua Han Qudc. Trung Qudc la thj trudmg xuat khau ldm nhat cua Han Qudc kl tir nam 2003, dirng dau va ngudn nhap khau tir nam 2007 va dirng dau vd thang du thuong mai tir nam 2003 theo sau la Dac khu Hdng Kdng (HKSAR) va Hoa Ky.
Bang 1: Ty trong xuat khau ciia Han Qudc sang nhung thi truong chu yeu, 1992-2010 (%)
1992 My
Nhat I Idng Kdng Singapore Dire Trung Qudc Top 6
23,6 15,1 7,7 4,2 3,8 3,5 57,9
2000 My
Nhat Trung Qudc Hdng Kdng Dai Loan Singapore Top 6
21,8 11,9 10,7 6,2 4,7 3.3 58,6
2003 Trung Qudc My Nhat Hdng Kdng Singapore Dai Loan Top 6
18,1 17,5 12,1 5,2 2,9 2,7 58,5
2010 Trung Qudc My Nhat Hdng Kdng Singapore Dai Loan Top 6
25,1 10,7 6,1 5,4 3,2 3,2 53,7 Nguon: KITA
Dong FDI ciia Hdn Quoc vd ciia Nhgt Ban vdo Trung Qudc gia tdng nhanh
Mgt hinh thirc tuong tac quan trgng khac gitra hai nin kinh tl la FDI. FDI vao Trung Qudc cd xu hudng bi thdng tri bdi cac nha diu tu Chau A, bdi vi ddng FDI vao Trung Qudc (chii ylu la tir Chau A) gin day tang nhanh chu ylu la do cac cdng ty da qudc gia t^i Trung Qudc trudc day chuydn vdn ra khdi Trung Qudc dh diu tu sang Hdng Kdng
hay cac khu vyc cd thud quan thap khac va nay lua chgn quay trd vd dau tu vao Trung Qudc dl dugc hudng nhtrng uu dai thud quan mdi"*. Trong sd cac nha dau tu dd, Han Qudc ddng vai trd ngay cang cao. Ngoai trir Hdng Kdng, tinh din nam 2007 Han Qudc la nha diu tu thir hai d Trung Qudc xet vd dau tu tu nhan va rieng Id, sau Nhat Ban, nhung trudc My (xem bang dudi).
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Bang 2: FDI vao Trung Qudc ciia mot s6 quoc gia, (1983-2007) (%)
Hdng Kdng Dai Loan Singapore Nhal Han Quoc My
1983-1991 58,7
0,0 1,2 13,4
0,0 11,1
1992-2003 45,1
7,6 5,0 7,8 3,6 8,8
2004-2007 32,8
3,5 3,7 7,8 7,3 4,8 Nguon: Mnistry of Commerce People's Republic of China
Dau lu tryc tidp cua Han Qudc tai Trung Qudc tinh tdi 9/2007 dat 21,1 ti USD vdi 19.512 dy an. Nam 2009 con sd cgng ddn dat khoang 44,7 ty USD. Hai nudc \Q CO ban khdng cd tranh chip lanh thd trir bai Td Nham ma Han Qudc ggi la dao leodo. Mau thuin chu ydu la lau ca Trung Qudc xam nhap vao khu dac quydn kinh td cua Han Qudc. Sy kien ngu dan Trung Qudc dam chit canh sat Han Qudc ngay 12/12/2011 da lam day Idn lan sdng chdng Trung Qudc d Han Quoc va lam cho quan he chinh tri ngoai giao hai nudc xau di.
Mgt sd tdc dgng khong mong mudn:
Tru&c hit do Id su gia tdng cdc tranh chdp thuong mgi.
Cd nhilu net gidng quan he Trung - Nhat, quan he Trung - Han cung cd dac trung:
"Qudn sir, chinh tri Ignh, kinh te ndng vd dm ve ngogi giao " Quan sy, chinh tri lanh do Han Qudc cd xu hudng tang lidn minh chinh trj, quan sy vdi My - ddi thii chidn luge ciia Trung Qudc. Kinh te ndng do cac quan he
thuong mai, dau tu, tai chinh hai bdn phat Irian rat manh, va ca hai dau dugc lgi trong khai thac nhu cau ciia ban kia.
Han Qudc da va dang phu thudc nhiau hon vao nan kinh ta Trung Qudc va thir hai la nguy co va cham hay tranh chap Trung - Han cao hom so vdi trudc. Dac biet, tham hut thuomg mai kinh nian gitira Trung Qudcva Han Qudc da thiic day nhtrng khiau nai gitira hai ban, dan dan ap dung bien phap chdng ban pha gia va lao ndn nhtrng xung dot ngam trong quan he gitra hai nudc
Theo Bd Tai chinh va Chidn luge Han Qudc, nganh cdng nghiep Trung Qudc da ndi Idn nhu la mdt ddi thii manh me tai cac thi trudng xuat khau chii chdt cua Han Qudc va canh tranh trdn nhidu loai san pham, tir quan ao cho dan dien tur va sy trdi day ciia Trung Qudc nhu la mgt sue manh kinh ta loan cau rat cd kha nang se lam tang canh tranh gitra hai nudc tai cac thi trudmg nudc ngoai^
* Chia, Slow Yue (2004).
Area".
'ASEAN-China Free Trade
' Yoo Choonsik, "Han Quoc canh giac khi Trung Quoc gia tang siic manh kinh tS", Reuters, ngay 13 th^ng 4 nSm 2009. Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/ous iv/idUSTRE53C 13420090413.
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Hai Id, lo nggi vi an ninh gia tdng Nhan thiirc sau sac nhtrng hau qua ciia sy xung dgt, Trung Qudc va Han Qudc da tang cudng kha nang quan ly cac tranh chap thuong mai cung nhu giam thidu hau qua chinh trj. Quan he ddi tac hgp tac chidn luge Trung Qudc - Han Qudc da dugc nang lan tam cao mdi vdi viec thanh lap quan he ddi tac hgp tac chiln luge trong thang 5/2008, nhumg sy phat triln cua mdi quan he vl chinh trj va an ninh song phuong tidp tuc tut hau so vdi cac mdi quan he vd mat kinh td.
Thang 12 nam 2008, doi thoai chiln luge diu tian gitra bg ngoai giao hai nudc da danh diu nd lyc thill lap mdt co chd cap cao vd ddi thoai chinh sach. Mac dii vide nang cap quan he song phuong trong nam 2008, cho thiy tim quan trgng trong viec phat trian dn djnh quan he an ninh hai nudc, thuc day dn djnh khu vyc. Nhung viec phat triln hgp tac an ninh hai nudc vin cdn nhidu bat cap. Tac
ddng cua vu chim tau chidn Cheonan Han Qudc, thang 3 nam 2010 khudch dai tham nhOrng khoang trdng trong moi quan he song phuong hai nudc va nhtimg thach thuc an ninh khu vyc. Theo Lee Sang-hyun (Vien Sejong), sy cd tau Cheonan da chimg minh nhu cau cap thiat da tao ra tha cha "lau dai va dn djnh" dd ddi phd vdi van dd an ninh Iran Ban dao Triau Tian. Trong cudc ddi thoai chiln luge thu ba giira Trung Qudc- Han Qudc lai BIC Kinh ngay 29/9/2010, hai ben da dua ra mdt tuyen bd hgp tac chat che
"chiln luge chung phi hat nhan hda ddi vdi Bac Tridu Tian va theo dudi hda binh va dn djnh trdn Ban dao Trilu Tian. Tuy nhian, cac thdng cao chung nay da bj lu md bdi cac cudc dam phan phi hat nhan hda, chang ban nhu Trung Qudc khdng hd trg didu tra qudc ll trong vu chim tau Cheonan va phan img tilp theo cua BIC Kinh trong chiln djch tap Iran My-Han.
Bang 3: Miic chi tieu quoc phdng cua Han Quoc va Trung Quoc (2000-2010) (Ty USD - theo ty gia 2009)
Nam 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Hdn Qudc 16,24 16,71 17,17 17,75 18,53 20,05 20,78 21,72 23,14 24,37 24.27
Trung Qudc 32,1 39,5 45,9 49,8 55,2 62,1 72,9 84,1 92,7 110,1 114,3
Ngudn: Vi?n nghien cuu Hoa binh Qudc ti Stockholm. (Cap nhdt ngdy 8/11/2011 tgi dia chi website: http://www.sipri.org/databases/milex)
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Tac ddng cua su- trdi day cua Trung Qudc den kinh tl Nhat Ban
Sy ndi Idn cua Trung Quoc anh hudng nhieu ddn kinh ta ciia Nhat Ban cung nhu dan mdi quan he kinh td Trung- Nhat. Thuong mai song phuong gitira hai nudc dang phat tridn rat nhanh va sy tang trudmg kinh ta nhanh chdng cua Trung Qudc cung cap nhidu co hdi phat triln cho Nhat Ban. Cac cdng ty Nhat Ban dang kiam Idi rat Idn tir thj trudmg khdng Id Trung Qudc. Tuy nhidn, mdt sd chuyen gia cho rang gia tang
hang nhap khiu tir Trung Qudc da lam tdn thuong mdt sd nganh cdng nghiep trong nudc ciia Nhat Ban. Them vao dd, sd vdn Idn ciia Nhat Ban diu lu vao san xult d Trung Qudc da din den thit nghiep gia tang va lam rdng rugt (hollowing out) mdt so nganh cdng nghiep d Nhat Ban , va hg khing djnh rang Trung Qudc da xuat khau giam phat sang Nhat Ban. Sau day, se phan lich nhtmg tac ddng khac nhau cua vide Trung Qudc trdi day ddn nen kinh ta ciia Nhat Ban.
N3m FDI
1995 3,183
Bang 4:
2000 934,0
2001 2,158
FDI
2002 2,622
cua Nhat vao Trui
2003 3,980
2004 5,863
2005 6,575
Ig Qudc 1995-2012 (ty USD)
2006 6,169
2007 6,218
2008 6,496
2009 6,899
2010 7,252
2011 12,649
2012*
7,169
Chu thich: * Tir thang 1 din thang 6/2012 FDI ciia Nhat Ban vao Trung Qudc cd dac diem la bidn ddng thudng xuyen dii cd xu hudng tang manh. Nam 2000, rat thap chi dat chua day I ty USD so vdi mirc hon 3 ty USD nam 1995. Nam 2006 giam gin 500 trieu USD so vdi nam 2005. Nam 2011 tang manh so vdi nam 2010. Nhin tdng thd, FDI ciia Nhal Ban vao Trung Qudc cd xu hudng tang. FDI ciia Nhat Ban vao Trung Qudc tang tir miirc xap xi 2 ty USD nam 2001 Idn 6 ty USD nam 2005 va dat muc dinh cao 12 ty USD nam 2011. Trong khi dd tdng FDI cdng ddn ciia Nhat Ban vao Trung Qudc giai doan 2001-2012 dat 74,04 ty USD. Nlu linh giai doan 1995-2012 thi con sd dat tdi hon 84 ty USD.
Tuy nhien, do cang thing trong tranh chip bidn dao sau khi Nhat Ban quyet djnh mua 3
trong 5 hdn dao tir lay mdt chu sd hiru tu nhan, nam 2012, dy bao FDI ciia Nhat Ban vao Trung Qudc chi dat hom 7 ty USD, giam manh so vdi muc 12,6 ty USD nam 2011.
Dac biet, lan sdng bidu tinh, dap pha nhiau cua hang cua cac cdng ty dien tir va d td cua Nhat Ban d Trung Qudc hdi thang 9/2012 da gay tdn that udc tinh khoang 125 trieu USD cho cac cdng ty Nhat Ban. Tuy nhidn, tdn that do doanh thu ban hang giam thi cdn Idn hom nhidu. Ridng hang san xuat d td Toyota cho bidt doanh sd ban ra ciia hg d Trung Qudc nam 2012 giam nhidu tram trieu USD.
Tinh cdng ddn, ldng FDI ciia Nhat Ban vao Trung Qudc giai doan 1995 - 2012 dat hon 84 ty USD, cao hem rat nhilu so vdi tdng FDI ciia Han Qudc vao Trung Qudc
20 NGHIEN CCiru D O N G BflC fl. s6 2(144) 2-2013
Bang 5: FDI c^ng don cua Nhat vao Trung Qudc 1992 - 2012 (ty USD)
Giai doan Tong gia tri
1992-2004 28,084
1995-2011 76,838
1995-2012*
84,007
2001-2011 66,881
2001-2012*
74,040
Ngudn: JETRO, Japan External Trade http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/statistics/
Chu thich:* Tir thang 1 din thang 6/2012 Thuang mgi song phuang Nhdt - Trung phdt trien vuot bdc.
Nam 2010, long thuomg mai cua Nhat Ban vdi Trung Qudc lap ky luc mdi, dat 301,9 ty USD, tang rit manh tir mirc 22,8 ty USD nam 1991. Xuat khiu ciia Nhat Ban sang Trung Qudc tang 36,0% va dat 149,1 ly USD, trong khi nhap khiu ciia Nhat Ban tir Trung Qudc tang 24,7% va dat 152,8 ty USD, va tdc dg tang trudmg dd cao nhal ke tir nam 2003. Mac dii thuomg mai Trung Qudc-Nhat Ban nhtrng nam gan day ludn duy tri tang trudng hai con sd nhung tdc dg tang trudng chi nim trong khoang 10%- 17%. Dd dd, cd thi ndi, sy tang trudmg
Organization, updated July 2012, Online at thuong mai song phuong nam 2010 la mdt budc but pha ngoan muc, dac biet la so vdi mdt nam trudc dd. Nam 2009 la lan dau tidn thuong mai Nhat Ban-Trung Qudc tang trudng am trong sudt 11 nam ke tir nam 1998 do anh hudng ciia khiing hoang tai chinh Ihl gidi va do suy thoai kinh td d Nhat Ban. Nam 2010 thuong mai cua Nhat Ban vdi Trung Qudc tham hut 3,7 ty USD, danh diu lln diu tidn con sd tham hut thuomg mai thip hon 10 ly USD kl tir nam 1994, (vdi 8,88 ty USD). Sy cai thien nay la do xult khiu cung nhu nhap khiu tir Trung Qudc gia tang trd lai khi nin kinh tl Nhat Ban din din hdi phuc.
Bang 6: Thuong mai cua Nhat Ban voi Trung Qudc (1991-2011) (ty USD,%)
Nam
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011
Xudt khdu ciia Nhgt Bdn
8,59 21,93 30,43 80,34 149,08 194,6
Nhgp khdu ciia Nhgt Bdn 14,21 35,92 55,30 109,10 152,80 148,3
Can bang thu-ong mgi
-5,62 -13,99 -24,87 -28,76 -3,71 4,3
Tdng thu-ong mgi
22,81 57,85 85,73 189,44 301,88 342,9
Tdc dp tang
(%)
25,09 29,47 12,73 30,03 10,3
Ngudn: Co quan xiic tiin ngogi thuong Nhdt Bdn (JETRO)
Sdli?u 2011: Chu Thuy Lien, Bdo cdo thuang nien Trung Qudc ndm 2011, tr. 211.
NGHIEN Cdru O O N G B ^ C fl, S6 2(144) 2-2013 21
Nam 2010, ddi tac xult khiu chinh cua Trung Qudc la My (17,7%), Hdng Kdng (13,3%), Nhat Ban (8,1%), Han Qudc (5,2%) va Dire (4,1%). Ddi lac nhap khiu chinh ciia Trung Qudc la Nhat Ban (13,3%), Han Qudc (9,9%), My (7,2%) va Dire (4,9%). Do dd, nam 2010 Nhat Ban da trd thanh ddi tac nhap khau ldm nhat va ddi tac xuat khau Idn thir ba cua Trung Qudc''.
Tac ddng tidu cyc ddn Nhat Ban:
Thir nhdt, Trung Qudc lam rdng rugt mdt sd nganh cdng nghiep ciia Nhat Ban.
Trong nhtrng nam gan day, viec md rdng dau tu tryc tidp nudc ngoai ciia cac cdng ty Nhat Ban, dac biet la dau tu sang Trung Qudc dugc coi la mdt trong nhtrng nguyan nhan dan dan viec lam rdng rugt mdt sd nganh cdng nghiep Nhal Ban (dang luu y la cac nganh nhu sat thep, ddng tau, san xuat d td, thidt bj dien tur)^. Mdt loat cac nganh cdng nghiep Nhal Ban, dac biet la nhiing nganh tir lau dugc bao hd bdi chinh phu, coi Trung Qudc nhu la "mdi de dga" kinh Id thyc sy. Mac dii hau hat cac cdng ty Nhat Ban vin dat tru sd chinh d Tokyo hoac cac trung lam kinh ll khac lai Nhat Ban, nhung phin ldm cac nha may trong nudc da bj ddng cira va chuydn ra nudc ngoai. Theo dd, FDI ciia Nhat Ban se anh hudng tidu cyc ddn cac
* China Trade, Imports and Exports. Available at:
http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/china/ex port-import.html.
•* Hideo Kobayashi (2003)."Responses of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan to the Hollowing out of Industry".
Professor, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University.
ndn kinh te dja phuong cua Nhat Ban va FDI dd se dan dan thay thi cho xult khau, va nd lam tang nhap khau tir cac nha may d nudc ngoai vao Nhat^.
Thir hai, Nhal Ban thudng xuyen bj tham hut thuong mai vdi Trung Qudc. Lian tuc tir nam 1991 din nam 2010, Nhal Ban d trong tinh trang tham hut thuomg mai vdi Trung Qudc. Nam 2005, mirc tham hut len tdi hon 28 ty USD. Nam 2006 la hon 25 ly USD.
Nam 2010, mirc thap nhat cung la gan 4 ty USD. Trong 21 nam lidn tuc tir 1991, chi riang nam 2011 Nhat Ban cd thang du thuomg mai vdi Trung Qudc.
Thir ba, lo ngai vd an ninh, Nhat tir chd giam ddn cat vien trg cho Trung Qudc, ddng thdi tang chi lieu qudc phdng.
Chi phi Trung Qudc danh cho qudc phdng da tang dang kd trong thdi gian gan day nhung Nhat Ban dudng nhu van gitr nguydn muc chi cho qudc phdng trong suot 10 nam nay (xem bang 11). Dd la chua tinh kha nang con sd thyc Id ma Trung Qudc chi tidu cho qudc phdng cd thd gap 2 con sd bao cao gidng nhu nhtmg lo ngai cua mdt sd chuyen gia.
Vide md rdng nhanh chdng ca vd pham vi va nang lyc cua quan ddi Trung Qudc, tap trung vao lyc sire manh khdng quan va sire manh trdn bian ciing nhu nang lyc tan lira, cimg vdi sy khdng rd rang trong chidn luge
* Keith Cowing and Philip R. Tomlinson (2001), "The Problem of regional "Hollowing out" in Japan: Lessons for regional industrial policy", Warwick economic research papers. No 625.
22 NGHIEN Ctiru OdNG B^C fl, sd 2(144) 2-2013
va nang lyc quan sy ciia hg, da trd thanh mdt van dd nhuc nhdi khdng chi ddi vdi Nhat Ban ma cdn ddi vdi loan bd khu vyc Ddng A, xet tir quan didm cua sy can b i n g sire manh quan sy.
Tir nam 1995 mdi quan he chinh trj gitra hai nudc Trung Qudc - Nhal Ban bit diu xlu di mac dii mdi quan he kinh ta v i n tilp tuc phat triln. Tir thang 5 nam 1995 din thang 7 nam 1996, Trung Qudc da thir vu khi hat nhan. Didu nay lao ra mgt lan sdng phan ung dii- dgi tai Nhat Ban, va Chinh phii Nhat Ban dap tra bang vide dinh chi vien trg khdng hoan lai cho Trung Qudc. Sau dd, Nhat thay ddi hinh thirc dam phan cac gdi vien trg cho Trung Qudc tir nhidu nam mdt lan sang hang nam, va cac gdi vien trg trung binh hang nam giam tir gan 200 ty yan vao cudi nhtrng nam 1990 din 86 ty ydn vao nam 2004. Nam 2005, Nhat Ban da tuyen bd cham dirt cac khoan cho vay b i n g ddng ydn ddi vdi Trung Qudc va hoan loan c h i m diirt vao nam 2008.
3. Ket luan
(1) Sy troi day ciia Trung Qudc la rd rang.
Sy troi day nay da va dang tac ddng manh din nhilu nudc, trong dd cd Han Qudc va Nhat Ban. Ddi vdi sy ndi len cua Trung Qudc, nhilu nudc Ddng A trong dd cd Nhat Ban va Han Qudc dugc hudng lgi vd kinh ta, dd la sy gia tang cac quan he thuomg mai va diu tu vdi Trung Qudc. Tuy nhidn cac co hdi ma Ddng A cd dugc tir Trung Qudc va An Dg la khac nhau. Nhat Ban va Han Qudc dugc lgi nhd uu t h i cd trinh do phat tridn hon hin Trung Qudc - cac cdng ty, tap doan Idn cua hai nudc nay d i u tu nhilu vao Trung
Qudc do, tan dung uu tha vugt trdi v l cdng nghe, khai thac lgi t h i so sanh - san xult xuat khau trd lai nudc hg va xuat khau sang cac thj trudng nudc thiir ba, nhd vay ma tang khdi lugng thuong mai ciia qudc gia, ddng gdp dang ke vao sy phat tridn ciia cac nin kinh ta Nhat Ban va Han Qudc.
(2) Trung Qudc trdi day da va dang lac ddng lam tang sy phu thudc kinh td giura Trung Qudc vdi Nhat Ban va Han Qudc.
(3) Trung Qudc trdi day gan lien vdi sy gia tang tidm lyc qudc phdng ciing nhti-ng cang thang trong tranh chap lanh thd d khu vyc Bidn Hoa Ddng va Hoa Nam gan day khidn cho nhiau nudc trong khu vyc lo ngai.
Viec tang tiam lyc qudc phdng cung nhu lidn kat chat hon vdi My dd ddi phd vdi nguy CO mat an ninh tir bdn ngoai ciia Nhat Ban va Han Qudc, bdn canh nhan td Trung Qudc trdi day cdn cd ca nhan td Bac Tridu Tian. Chung tdi cho rang, quan didm cua Nhat va Han Qudc trudc sy trdi day cua Trung Qudc tuy khac nhau vd mirc do, nhung cd didm chung la dau nhin nhan sy ndi Idn cua Trung Qudc la Igc quan ve kinh ti vd lo nggi vi ehinh tri, qudn sir./.
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