PHAN TICH & DJ BAO K I N H TE
GIA VANG THE GI61 THANG 10/2012:
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AfDA TANG CO THE CON TIEP DIEN
N G U Y E N THj BICH HOA, N G U Y E N H O N G Q U A N v g c o n g sd Chi nhdnh tai thanh phd Ho Chi IVIinh
Trung tam Thong tin vd DU bdo kinh te - xd hQi qud'c gia
1 . Nhu'ng dien bien chinh cua thj trddng t h i n g 0 8 va t h i n g 0 9 / 2 0 1 2
Thi trudng vang the gidi thing 8:
Tang manh
G i i vang the gidi trong t h i n g 8 ed xu hadng tang l i ehu yeu v i d i cao hon g i i ddng cda trong t h i n g 7/2012 tdi gan 5%, giao d j c h trong b i e n dp 1.584 USD/oz-1.693 USD/oz. M d e g i i nay (1.693 USD/oz) cdng l i mdc g i i eao nha't trong hPn 4 t h i n g gan
day.
M d eda t h i n g 8/2012, thj trddng v i n g the gidi da cd 2 phien g i i m g i i lien tiep (trong n g i y 01-02/8/2012), t d 1.614 USD/oz ve m d c 1.588 USD/oz. G i i vang tiep tue da g i i m t d eudi t h i n g khi Cue DP trd Lien bang Hoa Ky (FED) tuyen b d ehda dda t h e m gdi kich thieh kinh te nao d thdi d i e m hien tai. Tuyen b d nay d i dap tat hi vpng eua nha dau td, khie'n thi trddng that vpng. T h e m v i o d d , thj trddng vang toan cau ddng loat g i i m g i i khi n h i dau t a thi't vpng trade ke hoach kieh thieh thieu ehi tiet eua N g a n h a n g Trung PPng chau A u (ECB). C i c k i m loai quy k h i c eung ddng loat g i i m g i i m a n h : bae g i i m 1 , 1 % xudng cdn 27,09 USD/oz, bach k i m g i i m 2 % xudng cdn 1.380,24 USD/oz, palladium g i i m 3 , 4 % xudng cdn 566,75 USD/oz.
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The worid gold price in August 2012 tended to increase, varied between USD 1,584- 1,693/ oz and reached Its record within the last 4 months. In the first weeks of September, after a light reduce to USD 1,684/ oz., the gold price Increases strongly and seems not to change ifs trend. The major factor, which caused the trend of the gold price. Is the announcement of FED on the stimulation package QE 3. This decision influences positively on the increasing trend ol the gold price and could create a long period of increasing gold price. Within this trend, experts forecast that the gold price will go up in October
On Ihe domestk; maricet, the gold price In Vietnam Increased strongly and is often higher than the worid maricet by VND 2.4- 3.6 mil- lion/oz. Impacts ol the stimulation package QE 3 lead to Ihe feeling of many people that the inflation would be strengttiened. Thus, the gold would be considered as a tool against impact of the inflation.
Ngay sau d d , vang ed 6 p h i e n t a n g g i i lien tiep t d ngay 03- 10/8/2012, vdi mdc 1.588 USD/oz len 1.621 USD/oz, tdPng ddPng mdc tang k h o i n g 1 % , khi ty le that n g h i e p Hoa Ky b i t ngd len 8,3%. G i i v i n g , eung vdi da t a n g eua ehdng k h o i n sau khi sd lieu ve viec l i m d Hoa Ky trong t h i n g 7 ddpc cdng bd', tang manh nhat trong 5 t h i n g .
T d n g i y 15-23/8, g i i vang da cd 7 p h i e n tang g i i lien tiep vdi mde tang 71 USD/oz, tdOng ddPng 4 , 4 % , x i c lap tuan t i n g manh nha't ke t d d a u n i m 2 0 1 2 , do c i c n h i dau t d t i e p tpe hy vpng v l mot gdi ndi Idng d j n h Idpng mdi t d FED va t h d n g tin T i y Ban Nha dang d a m p h i n ve d i e u kien de n h a n t h e m mpt gdi edu trp m d i . Trong ljeh sd, e i c gdi kich t h i c h kinh te thddng kich thich v i n g tang gia tren thi trddng. H a i lan trddc, khi FED trien khai thde hien chdPng trinh ndi Idng d i n h Idpng keo dai t d t h i n g 12/2008 den t h i n g 6 / 2 0 1 1 , g i i v i n g da t a n g 7 0 % so v d i trddc d d . Nhieu d d bao cho rang trong bdi c i n h hien nay, v a n g se bdde v i o dpt tang g i i d i i han.
Quan s i t v i p h a n tich e i c d i i n bien tren thj trddng, ed the de tha'y ed nhieu t i n hieu cho t h i ' y c i c quy ETF dang gom v i n g manh tay
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THONG TIN & Dy BAO KINH TE • XA HOI So 81 (9.2012)nhat ke td t h i n g 2 nam nay. Thj tradng vang ky vpng Ngin hang trung dPng chau Au (ECB) se cd hanh dpng trp giup T i y Ban Nha v i Italia, ECB dang tien tdi ke hoach mua t r i i phieu de g i i m nhe ginh np nan cho 2 nPdc nay. Dpng t h i i n i y lam day len niem hy vpng ve viec se ed them e i c bien p h i p kieh thich kinh te tai chau Au. Tuy nhien v i o phien cudi eung eua thing, 31/8, gia vang the gidi t i n g vpt sau nhdng p h i t bieu eua Chu tjch FED. G i i v i n g dieu chinh tang manh td vung 1.650 USD/oz len gan mdc 1.693 USD/oz.
Thi trudng vang the gidi 3 tuan diu thang 9/2012: Tang manh Trong nda dau thing 9, ehi cd 2 phien giao dich bien dpng rat Idn l i nhdng giao djch v i o ngay 07/9 (tang 35 USD/oz) va giao djch ngay 1 3/9 (ting 36 USD/oz), khi FED chinh thde cdng bd se trien khai thpc hien gdi kieh thich mdi eho nen kinh te'My.
N g i y 07/9, g i i v i n g sau khi g i i m ve vung 1.700 d i lap tde tang manh trade nhdng thdng tin khong tdt ve kinh te My. Ddng eda ngiy giao djch d mde 1.735,5 USD/oz, g i i v i n g tang 35 USD/oz so vdi g i i md eda cung ngay, ddng thdi gidp cho gia v i n g ed tuan tang diem thd 3 lien tiep. Sau khi FED quyet djnh trien khai gdi edu trp QE3, g i i e i t i n g manh tren tat e i c i c thj tradng hing hda, thj tradng ehdng khoin My. Theo gidi phan tich, quyet dinh cua FED la ed thay ddi quan trpng, td muc tieu dn djnh g i i c i sang mue tieu hdi phue viee l i m . D i y l i quyet djnh cd t i c dpng tich cpc den xu hddng tang cua g i i ving, ed the tao ra mpt thdi ky t i n g keo dai cua g i i vang.
Dieu d i n g quan tam l i gdi edu trp QE3 (cd quy md 40 ty USD mdi thing) se ddpc thpc thi song hanh vdi gdi QE2 dape FED keo d i i them thdi gian. Trong QE2, hay cdn gpi l i chPPng trinh hoin ddi ky han, FED mua t r i i phieu ky han d i i v i b i n ra t r i i phieu ky han ngan. Vdi 2 gdi edu trp nay, mdi thing se cd 85 ty USD t i i sin dPpe mua vao eho tdi het n i m nay. Gidi quan sit nhan djnh, trong tuyen bd lan n i y eua FED, cd hai yeu td cd i n h hddng mang tinh then chdt ddi vdi g i i vang. Thd nha't la tinh chi't vd thdi han cua QE3, v i thd hai l i viec FED se mua t i i sin tham chi c i khi lam p h i t vdpt ngddng mue tieu. Cie chuyen gia cho ring, dieu nay se ed i n h hadng d i e biet tieh cpc ddi vdi g i i ving.
2. Cac yeu td^ tac dgng den thi trddng vang the' gidl thing 10/2012:
Da tang tiep dien
Hien tai, Idc tang eua gia vang v i n dang ri't manh sau tuyen bd chinh thde cua FED ve QE3. Mdc 1.800 USD/oz ed the nhanh ehdng bj bd xa, tham ehi mdc gia ki lue 1.920 se sdm t i i didn trd lai.
Mpt chuyen gia phan tich tai Shanghai CIFCO Futures nhan djnh rang quyet djnh eua FED se khie'n tien mat tran ngap thj trddng, di'y n h i d i u td den vdi c i c t i i sin cd tinh "phdng ve" eao (nhd v i n g v i bac) de dd'i phd vdi lam phit, it nhat la trong thdi gian td ngan tdi trung han. Quyet djnh cua FED cung se giup g i i v i n g du Idc de ed the chinh phgc e i c mdc cao.
Tren thj tradng tai ehinh the gidi, c i c nha dau ta eung dang eham chd theo ddi xem lieu Tay Ban Nha cd tiep tue tri hoan xin cdu trp t i i chinh hay khdng, khi ma eupc hpp cua cie n h i lanh dao Eurozone se dien ra sau day ehi vai tuan nda, va tiep dd, cupc bau cd Tdng thdng Hoa Ky se dien ra vao thing 11 nam nay.
Cang gan den thdi diem dd, ngPdi ta se cang quan tam nhieu hPn tdi vi'n de tham hut t i i khda eua Hoa Ky, mpt yeu td hien van dang dape coi l i mpt ngudn Ipc ho trp eho g i i vang.
Thj trPdng ving thing 10 cung se dinh sa quan tam cho eang thing d khu vac Trung Ddng, khi cang ngiy cang ed nhidu cP quan ngoai giao bi tan cdng trong khu vpc niy. Mot sd ngPdi xem day l i nhan td ho trp g i i ving, mae dd thPc ra g i i dau thd mdi dape hadng Ipi nhieu hPn td bdi cinh nay.
Ngin hang Trung PPng chau Au (ECB) cdng da phit di tin hieu ring se sdm can thiep nham ha tha'p l i l sui't t r i i phieu chinh phu cda mpt sd qud'c gia dang gap khd khan thude Eurozone, sd dung eic gdi cdu trp de cd the cdu khu vpc n i y thoit ra khdi eupc khung hoing np dai dang. Cic gdi kieh thich kinh te nay, neu dPpe trien khai, se dg d i n den nguy cP lam p h i t mdi tradng ly tadng de v i n g len ngoi khi kim loai quy n i y ludn dape coi la npi trd i'n an toan trong bdi cinh kinh te bat dn v i lam p h i t t i n g eao. Tren thpc te, hai gdi cdu trp tafdc d i day g i i vang t i n g len gi'p ddi trong vdng 4 n i m qua.
So' 81 (9.2012) THONG TIN & DU BAO KINH TE - XA HQI
17
PHAN TICH & DU BAO K I N H TE
3. Nhan dinh gia vang thing 10/2012 theo phan tich ky thuat
Thing 8/2012 l i mpt thing t i n g manh cua g i i ving. Md cda d mde 1.614,32 USD/oz, g i i vang giim xudng mde thi'p nhi't 1.584,08 USD/oz rdi len mde cao nha't 1.692,64 USD/oz va ddng eda sit dd, d mdc 1.691,50 USD/oz.
Bieu dd phan tich ky thu?t dP bao gia vang theo thing
aHUSOJW I U5COf J^^ j GSPUSOJH j USPyvW I mJUSP^IgiW, j KWUSOJrty [ ^UUIUSDJ^1 | XflUUgJW | XAUgJ.WwMy I XWiUmjIl j xaUUSPJMv j IWJUSOJaiv I XMMSD^ [ XAUUSCOai, I XAUUSO.^tenlHy
Gia vang trong nhu'ng tuan dau thing 9/2012 md eda tai mdc 1.691 USD/oz. Sau khi giim nhe xudng mdc tha'p 1.684 USD/oz, d i tang manh va hien dang dao dpng quanh mdc 1.773 USD/oz va ehda cd dau hieu ddng lai, k h i ning bdt p h i qua 1.800 USD/oz la ri't cao ngay trong t h i n g 9 n i y .
Gia vang thing 10/2012 ed nhieu k h i nang t i n g tiep. Tai bieu dd thing, ehi b i o Stochastic (ehi sd can b i n nhan biet khuynh hddng v i sp d i o chieu eua thj tradng), dadng tin hieu nhanh v i eham dang eung hadng len dddi vung q u i mua cho tin hieu tang tiep didn. Xet chi b i o MACD tai bieu dd thing, tin hieu giim dang bj thay the bing tin hieu t i n g .
4.Tac dgng cua gia vang the gidi tdi gia vang trong nddc
G i i v i n g Vi$t Nam v i n tang manh theo gia vang the gidi v i ludn ed sd chenh lech cao hpn g i i vang the gidi td 2-3 trigu ddng/ldpng tuy thdi diem. Hi§n g i i trong nddc dang giao djch quanh 46,7 trieu ddng/ldpng (tham khio g i i vang SJC). T^ g i i USD lien ngin hang v i n duy tri mdc 20.828 VND/USD td k h i lau. Thi trddng nhdng ngiy cudi t h i n g 9/2012 dang ri't sdi dpng v i chieu mua v i n nhieu hPn mac du sd n h i dau tP b i n ra chdt Idi cung khdng it. T i c dpng cua gdi kich thich kinh te QE3 do FED tung ra khien nhieu ngPdi lo lang lam p h i t se gia t i n g v i v i n g ddpc tim tdi nhP hang rao ehdng lam phit hdu hieu. D
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18 THONG TIN & aj BAO KINH TE - XA HQI 56' 81 (9.2012)
