TAP CHi CONG TRtftfHG
TANG TRlJCfNG TIN DUNG THCfl COVID-19 VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
» NGUYEN THANH TUNG - HOANG SCJN
TOM TAT:
Bai vie't tap trung vao ahCiig diem nhan ve tang trifSng tin dung giai doan d^u nam 2020, tCf do nhom tac gia difa ra khuyen nghi ve hoat d6ng tin dung giai doan nhifng thing cuo'i nSm.
Tii khoa: Tang tru'dng tin dung, nd xa'u, Covid-19.
1. D^t vSn de
Tii dau nam 2020, Ngan hang Nha ni/dc Viet Nam (NHNN) da ban hanh Chi thi so OI/CT- NHNN ngay 03/1/2020 chi dao cac ddn vi trong toan Nganh td chtfc thifc hien cac nhiem vu, giai phap trong lam cua nganh Ngan hang trong nam 2020, dam bao hoat dong ngan hang thong suo't, an loan va hieu qua. Dong thdi, NHNN cung da xay difng cac chi tieu va giai phap tang tn/6ng tin dung dam bao linh hoat, phu hcfp vdi muc tieu cua chinh sach tien te. Qua do, thiXc hi^n cac ngi dung, nhiem vu giai phap trpng tam cua Nganh nam 2020, bam sat cac muc tieu ve phat trien kmh te - xa h6i tai cac Nghi quyet cua Dang. Quo'c hpi va Chinh phu.
Ket thuc thang 5/2020, tin dung toan Nganh chi tang du'dc 1,96% so vdi d^u nam, thap hdn nhieu so vdi mu'c 5.74*^ cung ky nam 2019 va 6,16%
nam 2018. Mot trong nhffng nguyen nhan quan trpng la do anh hifdng cua dai dich Covid-19 da tac dpng de'n toan nen kinh te. Dieu nay cang lam tang them lo ngai ve kha nang dal difdc muc lieu tang trifdng tin dung nam 2020 la 14'^!- vdi chat lifdng tin dung difdc dam bao.
2. Nhffng diem nha'n ve tang trU^ng tin di^ng giai doan dau nam 2020
2.1. Tdc dgc tdng trUdng tin dung 5 thdng thdp ky luc
So' lieu cap nhat cua NHNN cho bie't. tSng tru'dng tin dung toan nen kinh te de'n ngay 29/5/2020 la 1,96% so vdi cuoi nam 2019. Day la mu'c tang tnfdng tin dung 5 thang tha'p nhal trong nhieu nam trd lai day. Nguyen nhan chu yd'u difdc ly giai la do tac dong cua dich Covid-19 din den cau tin dung tang thap, dong thdi cac t6 chu'c tin dung cung thifc hien chat che phu'dng cham md rpng tin dung theo hu'dng than trpng, gin lien vdi dam bao an toan nguon von de bao dam an toan nen kinh te, on dinh kinh te vT mo trong boi canh dai dich.
O goc do can doi vT mo, lang tru'dng tin dung tha'p hdn chi tieu ke hoach da tao nen "hidn tifdng"
khi khong con tha'y sii sot rupt, yeu cau thuc day tang tnfdng tin dung trong cac phan tich, chi dao dieu hanh ndi chung de gop phan thifc hien muc tieu tang tnfdng kinh te nhif nhffng nam tnfdc dd (Bang 1).
Bang 1 cho thay. cong tdc chi dao. dieu hSnh
322 So 14-Thang6/2020
TAI CHiNH-NGAN HANG-BAO HIEM
Bang 1. Tang tri/Sng M2, tin dung: Chi tieu vd thac hien (2015 - 2019)
Nam
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-
'rang tnj6ng M2 (%/nam) Chi Ueu
16-18 16-18 16-18 16 13 13
Thuc hi^n 16,23 17,88 14,91 12,5 13
Tang tmdng TD (%/nam) Chi ti§u ' Thilc hi$n
18 18-20 18-20 17 14 14
17,17 18,71 18,17 14 13,5
Nguon: Ngdn hdng Nhd nude Viet Nam i(n dung cua NHNN lu6n bam s^t cac muc tieu
phat trien kinh te-xa hpi tai Nghi quyet so 01/NQ- CP vi cdc Nghj quye't phi^n hpp thu'dng ky cua Chinh phu.
Dau nam 2020, Chi thi so 01/CT-NHNN neu ro can dam bao hoan thanh nhiem vu kiem scat chat che toe do lang trifdng tin dung d miJc 14%, cung tienM2 khoang 13%; ddng thdi chat lu'dng tin dung cua toan he thd'ng ciing nhif cua tifng to chiJc tin dung (TCTD) phai theo diing dinh hu'dng, muc ti6u da de ra cho nam 2020. Mac dii, hoat ddng tin dung da diln bien phu hdp vdi djnh hu'dng de ra, d3m bao chat lifdng tin dung song do trong bd'i canh dIu nam 2020 cd nhieu yeu to' khach quan va chu quan khong thuan ldi-nhu'dai dich Covid-19, n6n hoat d6ng tin dung da phat sinh mot so'ye'u to' dang lo ngai. Tang trffdng tin dung 5 thang dau nam 2020 d mffc thap hdn nhieu Ian so vdi 2 nam li^n tnfdc khi chi dat 1,96% so vdi mffc tang 5,74%
va 6,16% ciing ky nam 2019 va 2018. Mifc tang tnfSng nay tffdng dffdng s6' dff nd cac TCTD giai ngan ra nen kinh te sau 5 thang dat khoang 160.600 ty dong, tinh binh quan cac TCTD giai ngSn ra n^n kinh te tren 1.000 ty dong mdi ngay.
Mifc tang trffdng tin dung tren cung phan anh sif khd khan chung cua cdc doanh nghiep. Trong bo'i c^nh dai dich Covid-19 diln bie'n phtfc tap giai doan dau nam, mdt loat nganh hang da chiu anh hudng tieu cffc nhff nong, lam nghiep thuy ,san, doanh nghiep xuat nhap khau, dich vu lffu trii, an
uo'ng, thffc pham, do ud'ng, van tai, det may. da giay, dien tu', dau khi, du lich, giao due,... dSn dSn san xua't kinh doanh g5p khd khan va nhu cau ve vo'n giam manh. Ci g(5c do vay cd nhan cung rdi vao trang thai tffdng tff, ty le khong nho Iffc Iffdng lao dpng bi anh hffdng bdi dich Covid-19 dan den thu nhap giam phai that chat chi lieu, din de'n nhu cau vay tieu dung hay dau tff giam sut.
2.2. Chd't lugng tin dung diMc kiem sodt d mdc hdp ly Trong bd'i canh kinh te the gidi suy giam', nhieu quo'c gia tang trffdng cham, cac nen kinh te ldn nhff My, Trung Quo'c, Nhat Ban, EU deu chL?ng kie'n tinh trang GDP suy giam dang ke thi GDP quy 1/2020 cua Viet Nam d mffc 3,82% dffdc ddnh gia la dat mffc kha so vdi nhieu nen kinh te' khac.
Ddng thdi, ne'u dat trong bd'i canh tang trffdng tin dung d mffc tha'p thi mffc tang tru'dng GDP nay chinh la tin hieu tich cffc ve cha't Iffdng tin dung, hieu qua sff dung vo'n vay va sffe ha'p thu cua nen kinh te' Cu the;
Ty le tang trffdng tin dung/GDP cua Viet Nam nhieu nam qua duy tri d mffc kha cao so vdi cdc quo'c gia khac (Bieu do I). Dac biet, tff giai doan nam 2010 trd di thi con sd'nay dat mffc 100 - 120%, nam 2018 ty le nay da tang len de'n 133%. Day la mffc ma nhieu to' chffe quo'c te'canh bao tiem an rui ro ldn do'i vdi he thd'ng tai chinh va on dinh vT mo.
Do vay, sff ha nhiet ve ty le tang trffdng tin dung/GDP cua Viet Nam giai doan dau nam 2020 cho tha'y, Viet Nam da kha thanh cdng trong hoat dpng kiem .sodt tang trffdng, cd ca'u va chat Iffdng tin dung phu hdp.
2.3. Ty le cd'p tin dung so vdi nguon vo'n huy dgng d mdc thdp nhd't trong nhieu ndm
Tong tai san he thdng cac TCTD tinh de'n thdi diem ngay 31/3/2020 dat mffc xa'p xi gan 12.5 trieu ty ddng. tang nhe so vdi thang irffdc dd nhffng lai giam 0,71 % so vdi cuo'i nam 2019. Cung trong giai doan dau nam 2020. tang trffdng tin dung tha'p hdn so vdi tang trffdng vd'n huy ddng cho tha'y. thanh
So 14-Thang 6/2020 323
TAP CHi CONC THIfdNG
Bieu do 1: Ty le tang tri/dng tin dung/GDP Viet Nam va mot s6 quoc gia giai dogn 1998 -2016
220 200 180 160 140 120
/
/ Tmng (^6c
' \ . . / — : > : ^ .
/ Khu vvc EU
Viet Nam
Lien Bang Nga
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20181
Nguon: Ngdn hdng The gidi
khoan cua hd thd'ng TCTD diu nam 2020 duy tn on dinh. Xet toan he thd'ng, ty le ca'p tin dung so vdi nguon vd'n huy dpng (LDR) la 73,81% (Bang 2), dat mffc gidi han trong quy djnh tai Thdng tff s6'22/2019/TT-NHNN (td'i da 85% vdi tat ca cdc to'
chffe tin dung). Dong thdi, day la mffc tha'p ky luc trong nhieu nam trd lai day.
2.4. Ngxdu vdn tiem dn nguy cdcao Ngay ttf dau ndm 2020, vi6c kiem sodt va xff ly nd xa'u da dffdc trien khai quye't liet, cd hieu qud,
Bang 2. Ty le c a p tin dung so vdi nguon vdn huy d p n g
Loai hinh TCTD
Ty 1$ cap tin dung so vdi nguon von huy dOng (%) ngay
31/12/2019
von huy dOng (%) ngay 31/03/2020
NHIM Nha nddc 91,89
NHIM CO phan NH Lien doanh, nude ngoai Cong ty tai chinh, cho thue tai chinh To chile tin dung hop tac Toan he thdng
283,70
57,90
Ngudn: Ngdn hang Nhd nifdc Viet Nam
324 So 14 - Thdng 6/2020
TAI CHINH-NGAN H A N E - B A O HIEM
dam bao dung Id trinh theo cdc giai phap tai phffdng an tai cd cS'u lai gan vdi xff ly nd xa'u de'n het nam 2020 da dffdc phe duyet, dac biet la cac bi8n phdp quy dinh tai Nghi quye't so' 42/2017/QH14.
Tuy nhien trong bd'i canh dai dich Covid-19, cac cd quan quan ly cung da xdc dinh chat Iffdng tai sin ciia cdc TCTD se chiu tac ddng khdng tich cffc, tiem an nguy cd nd xa'u cao. Theo ddnh gid cua cd quan dieu hanh, giai doan d^u nam 2020, quy md tin dung hi anh hffdng do Covid-19 cd the len tdi khodng 2 tri6uty ddng dff nd, tffdng dffdng khoang 23% dff nd toan nganh, tiem an rui ro tdi hoat ddng ngdn hSng. Chfnh vi vay, nganh Ngan hang da sdm vao cudc khi NHNN ban hanh Thdng tff so' 01/2O2O/TT-NHNN de tdi cd ca'u, gian nd cho khdch hang. Ddng thdi, trong dieu hanh tin dung, NHNN ludn bdm sat dien bie'n dich Covid-19 de thffc hidn cdc bidn phdp kiem scat quy md tin dung phii hdp vdi chi tieu dinh hffdng, dam bdo chat Iffdng tin dung. Den ngay 8/6/2020, cdc to' chffe tin dung da cd ca'u lai thdi han tra nd cho 249.108 khach hang vdi dff nd 172.365 ty ddng; miln, giam, ha laisuatcho 403.177 khdehhang vdi dff nd 1.227.349 ty ddng; cho vay mdi lai sua't ffu dai vdi doanh sd' liiy ke tff ngay 23/1/2020 den nay dat 978.529 ty ddng; cho vay 225.514 khach hang lai suS't thd'p hdn phd bie'n tff 0,5 -
2,5% so vdi trffdc dich.
Nhd sff quyet liet trong ehi dao cua cac cd quan quan ly, cac TCTD da tdp trung kiem soat chat che toe dp va chd't Iffdng tin dung, cap tin dung di doi vdi an toan tin dung, tao didu kifn cho khach hang tie'p can vd'n tin dung khoi phuc nhanh chdng san xua't kinh doanh. (Bieu dd 2)
Ben canh ye'u to' tich cffc, hoat dpng tin dung Ngan hang giai doan dau nam 2020 con ton dpng nhieu van de ddng lo ngai nhff: Nguy cd nd xau, ndi lo ve tang trffdng tin dung giin ket chat che vdi kiem sodt
cha't Iffdng va cd ca'u tin dung phu hpp, dam bao hd trd hieu qua nha't cho ca nhan doanh nghiep tid'p can vd'n tin dung, tap trung day manh san xuat, vffdt qua khd khan do dieh Covid-19, nhanh chdng khdi phuc va phat trien hoat dpng kinh doanh.
3. Mpt so' khuye'n nghi
Chinh phii da co Nghi quyet sd'Ol/NQ-CP ngay 01/1/2020 ve nhiem vu, giai phdp chu ye'u thffc hien ke hoach phdt trien kinh te' - xa hdi nam 2020, trong do nha'n manh muc tieu d'n dinh kinh te' vT md, kiem soat lam phat, cd cau lai he thd'ng TCTD gan vdi xff ly nd xa'u la nhffng nhiem vu trpng tdm, Dffa ty le nd xa'u ndi bang xud'ng dffdi 2% va ty Id nd xau va nd tidm in trd thanh nd xa'u (gdm nd xa'u, nd xa'u da ban cho VAMC hien chifa xff 1^
dffdc va cdc khoan nd cd ca'u lai thdi han tra nd tiem an trd thanh nd xa'u) dffdi 3%. De dat mue tieu tren, hoat ddng tin dung nam 2020 can quan tam nhffng van de sau:
Thd nhdt, NHNN hd trd cdc TCTD quye't liet thuc hien hieu qud Nghi quye't cda Qudc hdi vi xd ly nd xdu cda cdc td chdc tin dung.
NHNN cd giai phap de tang vdn cho cdc ngan hang thffdng mai nha nffde va ngan hang thffdng mai ma nha nffdc chie'm ed phan chi phd'i. Tao chuyen bie'n can ban ve quan tri ngdn hang, hieu qua va an toan hoat ddng. Tap trung xff ly cd hieu
Bieu do 2: Ty le nd xd'u todn ngdnh Ngdn hdng I 1.2%
j 1,TO
I ^m
I 1,4%
1,3%
04 20171
01 Q2 Q3 Q 4 Q I 02 <B 0 4 0 1 ms I 2019 I 2020 I
Ngudn: Ngdn hang Nhd nifdc Viet Nam
So 14 - Thang 6/2020 3 2 5
TAP CHi CONG THIfdNC
qua cdc td chffe tin dung yeu kem va nd xau theo nguyen tdc thi trffdng, khong hd trd trffe tie'p tff ngan sach nha nffdc.
Thd hai, NHNN day manh cdc hogt dgng thanh tra, gidm sdt ngdn hdng.
Xff ly nghiem cac vi pham trong hoat ddng cua cac to chffe tin dung va thi trffdng tien te.
Thuc day dp dung toan dien Chuan mffc an toan Basel II. Dam bao hoat ddng tin dung cua he thd'ng ngan hang luan thu nhffng quy dinh ve an toan, gdp phan han che tidu cffc va rui ro tin dung. Loai bd tinh trang phan biet dd'i xff trong ITnh vffc tien te, dam bao tinh edng bang, chap hanh cac quy dinh phap ludt vd hoat ddng ngan hang cua cdc TCTD. Thuc day eanh tranh lanh manh giffa cac td chffe tin dung, tao dieu kien de cac ngdn hang thffc hien nhieu hoat ddng bdn hang, quan ly va tdc nghiep tin dung td't hdn.
Nang cao nang Iffc canh tranh, cha't Iffdng, hieu qua hoat ddng tin dung td't va an loan hdn.
Thd ba, kiem sodt chat che hdn nQa hogt dong tin dung, dUa ty trong tin dung/GDP ve mdc hdp ly.
Khi tang trffdng tin dung dffdc kie'm soat chat, mud'n duy tri dffdc ldi nhuan hdp ly, cae ngan hang phai tie't giam chi phi hoat ddng, ddng thdi dd'y manh cdc dich vu thu phi. Dac biet, can day manh cdng cude chuyen ddi sd' cdc dich vu tai chinh ngan hang de giam thieu cac ehi phi ve
quan tri, quan ly, giam thieu nhan Iffc. Day cung chinh la giai phap doi mdi cdng nghd so' hda hoat dpng tff dao tao nhdn life de'n quan tri ngan hdng.
Thd tu, tdng khd nang tiep can vdn cda khdch hdng.
Doanh nghiep hoat dpng cam chffng se khdng dam vay vd'n ngan hang de day manh san xua't kinh doanh, nha^t la trong bd'i canh phai thu hep quy md san xua't do dich Covid-19 thdi gian qua.
Ngffdc lai, ne'u doanh nghiep cd cd hdi md rpng san xua't mang lai hieu qua eao thi nhu cau tiep can vd'n tin dung ngan hang se nhieu hdn. Do vay, NHNN can day manh phd'i hdp vdi cdc Bg, nganh, dia phffdng thffc hidn tridt de cdc dd dn tdng the ve tai ca'u triic nen kinh te trong tffng thdi ky theo hffdng tap trung vao dam bao chat Iffdng tin dung, tai cdca'u va hd trd doanh nghi$p khac phuc khd khan trong hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh.
Thd ndm, NHNN cd bien phdp dong bg, quye't liet de ngdn chdn vd ddy ldi nan tin dung den.
Can to' chffe trien khai cac giai phap lang khd nang tie'p can vd'n lin dung nham phuc vu san xua't - kinh doanh, dich vu va ddi sd'ng cua ngffdi dan, doanh nghiep, nha't la d cac khu vffc n6ng nghidp, ndng thdn, vung sau, viing xa. Ddng thdi, lich cffc phd'i hdp vdi Bd Cdng an va cdc Bp, nganh lidn quan trong viee ngan chan, day ICii tin dung den •
TAI LIEU TRICH DAN:
'Thang 3/2020: Quy Tidn td Qufl'c te (IMF) nhan dinh tang mfdng toan cau se tha'p hdn nhieu so vdi mffc 2.9"^
cua nam 2019 va cho rang kho dy doan tang tru'dng toan c a u s e giam sdu de'n mffc nao trong n3m 2020. To chffe hdp tac vS phat trien kinh te (OECD) da ha mffc dif bao thap hdn 0,5 diem phan tram so vdi dff bao hdi thdng i 1/2019. xuo'ng con 2.4% cho tang tru'dng kinh te the gidi nam 2020. Ngan h&ng The gidi (WB) cung dff bao mffc tang trifdng kinh te toan cau nam 2020 chi dat 2,4%, mffc tha'p nhat ke tff cuoc khiing hoang tai chinh toin cau 2008 - 2009
TAI L i e u THAM KHAO:
1. Chinh phu {2020). Nghi quyet .w 01/2020/NQ-CP V/v nhiem vu. gidi phdp chu veu ihuc hien Ke hogch phdt trien kinh te - .xd h^i vd Dif todn ngdn sdch Nhd nifdc ndm 2020, ngay 01/1/2020.
326 So 14-Thang 6/2020
TAIGHINH-NGANHANG BAOHIEM
2. Ngan hang Nha nifdc Viet Nam (2020), Chi thi so'Ol/CT-NHNN. ve to chiic thuc hien cdc nhiem vu. gidiphdp trong tdm ciia ngdnh Ngdn hdng trong nam 2019. ngay 03/1/2020.
3. Ngan hang Nh» niigc ViSt Nam (2020), Thong lusoOl/2020/rT-NHNN quy dinh ve viec to chile lln dung chi nhanh ngdn hdng nUdc ngodi ca cdu lai thdi han trd no. miSn, gidm ldi. phi. giS nguyen nhdm na nham ho tra khdch hdng chiu anh hudng do dich Covid - /9, ngSy 13/3/2020.
4. Ngan hang Nha ni/(3c Vi6t Nam (2020), Tdi lieu hop bdo thong tin hoat dong ngdn hdng 6 thdng ddu ndm 2020.
ngay 16/6/2020.
5. Cac To Chile tin dung (2017, 2018, 2019), Bdo cda tdi chinh ndm 2017. 2018. 2019.
6. Website: hltps://data.worldbank.org/indicator. https://www.sbv.gov.vn. htlps://www.bloomberg.com.
www.scmpcom. https://www.cafef.vn. www.vietnambiz.vn. https://vov vn. www vietnamfinance.vn. www.tapchi- laichinh.vn
Ngay nhan bai: 10/5/2020
Ngay phan bi^n danh gia va su'a chifa: 20/5/2020 Ngay cha'p nh$n dang bai: 29/5/2020
Thong tin tdc gid:
1. ThS. N G U Y I N THANH TUNG 2. ThS. H O A N G SCfN
Khoa Ngan hang HQC vidn NgSn hang
THE CREDIT GROWTH AMID THE COVlD-19 PANDEMIC AND SOME RECOMMENDATIONS
• Master. NGUYEN THANH TUNG
• Master. HOANG SON Faculty of Banking, Banking Academy
ABSTRACT:
This article presents the highlights of credit growth in the early period of 2020 and makes recommendations on credit performance for the rest of 2020.
Keywords: Credit growth, non-performing loans, Covid-19 pandemic.
So 14 - Thang 6/2020 327
