CHAU MY NGAY NAY 35 - W
QUAN HE QUOC TE
NHITNG YEU TO GOP
P H A NDINH HINH
"CHIEN LirOC XOAY TRUC" SANG CHAU A - THAI BINH DU'CfNG CUA CHINH QUYEN OBAMA oiair
Th.S Nguyin Thj Hlng Minh Vten Chinh tri hoc - Hoc viSn Chinh tn QuSc gia Hd Chi Mtnh Nguyen Dinh Ngan Viin Kmh le vd Chinh in the gtdt
N
M$ra ky dau cfla Tdng thdng Obama chung kiln hanh trinh My frd lai Chau A - Thai Binh Duong frong "chien luac xoay true"nhim tai khing dinh vai frd Ianh dao khu vuc cua sieu eudng, dac bipt fren linh vuc ngo^i giao. Budc sang nhiem ky hai, mac dfl mdi quan tam cfla My da bi xao ttpn it nMeu bdi nhiing thay ddi cfla tinh hinh chinh tti qudc tl, song m(ic tieu dd tiep tuc dupc khang dinh bing nhilu boat dpng fren cae llnh vuc.
kinh te, quan su theo co chl da phuong va dua fren ly thuylt ngoai giao vl "sice mgnh thdng minh "
Nhilu hpc gia danh gia: Nudc My coi frpng Chau A - Thai Binh Duong khdng phai vi mpt phin lanh thd eua hp thupe noi day, ma t u d c het bdi le ban than khu vuc nay cd sue hap dan va xu hudng phat trien khdng thi bd qua. Theo Giao su Joseph Nye cfla Dai hpc Harvaid, tiing la Tip ly Bp trudng Qudc phdng My va la tac gia cfla cudn sach "Tuang lai quyen luc" (The Future of Power): "Ngay tir
ndm 1750, chdu luc ndy da chiem 3/5 ddn sd the gi&i vd 3/5 GDP todn cdu vd den ndm 2050 chdu luc ndy se lgt trd ve v&i dig vi vdn cd cua nd cdch ddy 300 ndm" Vay sue bap dan va xu hudng phat trien khdng the bd qua cfla khu vuc nay la gi? Ben canh dd, khu vuc Chau A - Thai Bmh Dupng da va dang tilm an nhimg yeu td nao khien My phai nhanh chdng Men thuc hda rape tieu "xoay true " cfla rainh?
I. Tai nguyen dja chien lirp'c cfla khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Dtrong
1, Chdu A - Thdl Binh Dirong td khu vuc gidu CO ve ldi nguyen ihien nhien
Day la khu vuc cd ngudn tai nguyen thien nMen phong phu, cd trfi lucimg dau md, khi ddt ldn, nhan luc ddi dao, cd cac Myln dudng bien ddng vai ttd chien luoc ttong frao ddi thuong raai tten the gicii.
Ddi vdi tai nguyin dau khi va khi tMen nhien, mac du ehua cd sd lipu thdng nhat nhung ed the thay Bien Ddng tiem an mpt trii lupng dau md ldn chua tham dd
CHAU MYNGAYNAY_
khai fltac, va duoc danh gia la noi cd ttil lupng diu Mong duong vdi Vinh Persic.
Theo thong ke cua BP (BP 2014 Statistical Review of Worid Energy), trir luong diu ihl gidi vin giu: dupc mue tang ttudng sp vdi nam 1992 va dat 1687,9 ty thflng vap cuoi nam 2013 chfl ylu tap trang d khu vuc Trung Ddng (47,9%). Trong khi dd d khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong, trfi lupng diu tang nhp so vdi nam 1992 tu 38,8 ty thung len 42,1 ty thung vao cuoi nam 2013^
2 Chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong la trung ldm vi kmh ti, ldi chinh vd thuong mgi
v l vai ttd dia kinh te, vdi dien tich khoang 20 frieu km^, bing 1/3 dien tich till gidi va dan sd gin 3 ty ngudi chilm gin 1/2 dan so thi gidi, khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong la rapt thi trudng rdng ldn, noi cd luc lupng lao dpng ddi dao vdi nhung qudc gia dung dau ve quy md dan sd nhu Trung Qudc, Indonesia,... Day cdn la thi tradng tidu thu khdng Id ma bat ky nen kinb te ldn nao cung mudn gianh thi phan. Chau A - Thai Binh Duong Men dang bflng nd vdi nhiing nen kinb te dupc cei la nang ddng nhat thi gidi nhu: Nhat Ban, Han Qude, Dai Loan, Singapore, Trang Quoc, An Dp, Austtalia,... Theo dd, khu vuc nay chua dung nhiing tiera nang to ldn cho su phat frien nang dpng va dupc du doan la khu vuc hpi tu nhilu nguon luc dl ttd thanh trang tam kinh te hang diu cua thi gidi ttong thi ky XXI.
Tbeo Dai dipn Thuong mai My, khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong la ddng CO chu yeu cfla tang ttudng kinh te toan ciu va chilm gin 60% GDP toan ciu, gin 50%, gia tri tiiuong mai qudc te . Theo IMF, Chau A - Thai Binh Duong la khu vuc cd tdc dp tang tradng kinh te nhanh nhit till gidi hipn nay, vdi tdc dp tang GDP thue tl d cac quee gia chau A dang phat triln d rauc 6,3%, ttong nam 2013". Cac quoc gia tiianh vien APEC chilm khoang 44%, thuong mai the gidi*.
Nam 2010, theo danh gia cua Tap chi Wall Street Joumal va Quy Heritage, khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong da chiem 4 vi tri dan dau ttong top 10 qudc gia va vung lanh thd tai cudc khao sat thudng niln ve tu do kinh te, bao gdm;
Hongkong, Singapore, Australia va New Zealand. Danh gia dua tten cac cMnh sach frong nhiing ITnh vuc gdm cd kinh doanh, thuong mai, quyen sd huu tai san, khdng cd tham nhung va tu do lao ddng.
Trpng khu vuc, Trung Qudc la thi trudng xuat khau ldn thu ba va la noi thu hut mdt khdi lupng ldn vdn dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai cua My'. Ben canh do, Nhat Ban la ddi tac quan ttpng vdi trung binh 130 ty USD lupng hang hda nhap khau tii My. ASEAN la ddi tac thuong mai ldn tbu nam va la thi trudng xuat khau ldn thu tu cua My vdi kim ngach thuong mai song phuang trong nam 2012 dat gan 195 ty USD, va xuit khau cua My vao khu vuc nay dat gin 100 ty USD, tuong duang vdi khoang 2/3 gia tri hang xuat
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
khau cfla My vao Trang Qude . Tai Ddng Nara A cd gin 50 ty USD dau tu nudc ngoai trac tilp (FDI) cfla My, khu vuc nay xuat khau vao My khoang gin 50 ty USD va nhap khiu gan IOO ty USD hang hda cfla My mdi nam^.
Dau tu true tiep cfla My vao ASEAN frong nam 2012 dat 189 ty USD, frd thanh diem dau Ux ldn nhat cua My tai Chau A'.
Ngoai ra, mpt trpng nhung Ioi ich kinh te quan ttong cfla My vdi cac nude chau A chinh la van de tai chinb.
Hien nay, chau A sd huu ngudn tai chinh quan ttpng hang dau chp khoan vay nudc ngoai cfla ngan sach lien bang My. Trang Qudc va Nhat Ban mua frai phieu cua My nhieu nhat, va chi tinh lieng hai qudc gia nay da chiem giu khoang 65% tdng sd no nudc ngoai cua My. Cd the ndi, nln kinh te My hien dang gan lat chat vdi cac nen kinh te thupc khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, dac biet la khu v\rc cac nudc Ddng Bac A.
3. Chdu A - Thdl Binh Duang chl phdi cdc tuyin hdng hdi qudc te quan trong
Mdt vin dl khac cflng dupc My quan tara ve Ipi ich cMen lupe tai khu vuc, dd la thdng thuong dudng bien vdi nhung tuyen van tai quan frpng ndi lien chau A vdi cac khu vuc khac fren the gidi, va di hen vdi nd la cac trac cap quang quan frpng ndi liln thdng tin giua chau A va phan cdn Iji cfla thi gidi.
La mpt ttong nhfing nen kinh t l ldn nhat the gidi, nhu cau ve thuong mai
va an ninh thuong mai la van de sdng cdn ddi vdi nln kinh tl My, do vay My ludn tich cue duy tri va phat tnen mdi quan hp than thipn vdi nhieu qudc gia trong khu vuc, nhit la nhung diem xung yeu nhu eo bien Malaska.
Day la tuyen dudng thiet yeu van chuyen dau va cac ngudn tai nguyen thuang mai tfl Trung can Ddng qua Ddng Nam A tdi Nhgt Ban, Han Qudc va Trung Qudc. Theo sd lieu thdng ke, 90% van tai thuong mai cfla t h i gidi thuc hien bing dudng bien va 45%) trong sd dd phai di qua tuyen dudng nay. Lupng dau lua va khi hda ldng dupc v^n chuyen qua vflng bien nay ldn gap 15 lan lupng chuyen chd qua kenh dao Panama'"
Tam quan trpng cfla cac tuyln hang hai, dac biet la khu vuc Bien Ddng tai chau A - Thai Binh Duong khdng chi mang y nghTa giao thuang kinh te, mdt loi ich khac tfl bien ma My quan tam la van de an ninh quan su. Trong Bao cap chinh saeh "Khai nipm cac beat -ddng hang hai 2010" cua Bd Qudc phdng My cd viet: "la mpt qudc gia bang hai.
My phu thupc vap bien ea ve an ninh qudc gia va phdn vinh kinb te" va "su an toan va cac lpi ich kinh te cfla nudc My, ddng minh va cac ddi tac cia My phu thudc quan trpng vao thuang mai khdng bi can trd khi di qua cac dai duong cfla the gidi", hon thi biln cung cip cho hai quan My "khdng gian dien tap can thiet de bao ve lpi ich qudc gia My"". Hien nay, Bien Dong ehinh la
CHAU MY NGAY NAY dia ban hoat dpng cfla Ham dpi Thai
Binh Duong cfla My (ham dpi 7), bao gdm 180 tau, 1.500 raay bay va 125.000 quan di chuyen tten mpt vflng bien rpng Idn tu bd Tay nudc My den An Dp Duong. Vipc duy tri quyen tu do di Iai t ^ cac khu vuc Men d chau A - Thai Binh Duong mpt mat khang dinh su hipn dien cfla My, mat khae nham gia tang mdi quan he vcii eac qudc gia ddng minh cfla My tai khu vuc.
II. "Su troi day" ciia Trung Quoc Sau 30 nam cai each, Trang Qudc tu rapt nudc ngheo ttd thanh qudc gia cd thu nhap trang binb, rdi trd thanh nln kinh te dflng thu 3 thi gidi sau My va Nhat Bin, va cudi cflng vuot Nhat Ban dl ttd tiianh nln kinh tl dung bang thu hai chiem 10% kira ngach ngoai thuong cua the gidi. GDP cfla Trung Qudc dang din .theo kip GDP cfla My, dieu nay da khiln Trang Qudc ttd thanh mpt ddi thfl cd tiem luc kinb tl ldn cfla My.
Tinh din thang 12/2013, qudc gia nay da mua tong cpng 1.300 ty USD ttai phieu Chinh phu My va van dang la chfl np ldn nhit cfla M y ' l Du bao din nam 2022, GDP Trang Quoc se bat kjp va vupt GDP cfla My'^ Dti doan vl nln kinh t l Trang Qupc, cung nhu mdi tiiong quan vl sue tang ttudng GDP cua Trang Quoc so vdi cae quoc gia chau A va vdi My ttong giai doan 2010-2030 duoc thi Mpn frong bing sau'"*:
Bang: Tang trirdng GDP ciia My, Trung Quoc va mot so nirdc Chau A
nam 2010 va du bao 2030
(Dm VI Tyl.'SD) Quoc gia
Tmng Quoc My AnDp Nhat Ban Nga Indonesia Han Quoc Australia Thai Lan Malaysia Philippines
2010
5 633 14614 1.594 4 773 1 689
692 1.014 1.191 302 235 186
2030
31.731 22.920 7 972 5.852 4 730 2,446 2,112 1 802
904 889 793
Tang trirdng (%)
563 157 500 123 280 353 208 151 299 378 426
Paper no. 204
Nha kinh tl hpc Keidel ehe ring, sue manh va anh hudng tai chinh cua Trung Qudc se lan sang tit ca cac ITnh vuc khae cfla quan he quoe tl. Lanh dap cua cac the che qude t l se bi thu hut vl phia Trung Qude, su chuyin budng nay cd the bao gom ca Lien Hiep quoc, Ngan hang The gidi, Quy Tiln te Quoc tl.
Theo dd, thuc t l se diln ra la My se cd xu hudng thda hiep va pham vi dl My don phuong Ma chpn hanh dpng se hi ban ehe dang ke.
Ve quan su, hien Trang Quee dang cd su dau tu manh me cho qudc phdng, dac Met tten hai ITnh -vue cd tinh dpi pha la hai quan va vfi fru" Vl hai quan, Trang Quoc dan hien dai hda cac cang biln, tang sd lupmg tau ngam, tau chiln Hai quan Trang Quoc cfing da cdng bo kl hoach ddng mdi hai tau san bay (ttpng tai 50 nghin tan) vao ngay 23/12/2008,
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
hai tau nay se duoc su dung vao nam 2015. Tnmg Qudc phat trifin ten lua dan dao thfi he thii hai cd kha nang trfin dat lifin. Cling nhu tren bifin. Trung Qudc Cling phat trifin ten liia tam ngin va tam trung cd the xii ly cac tinh the bit ngd d eo bien Dai Loan. Ben canh dd, Trung Quoc tifip tuc cac budc di trong xay dung quan dpi hien dai.
Tom lgi, siic manh ve kinh tfi, su hifin dai hda nhanh ehdng ve quan su cung su rang bupc ngay cang chat che cua khu vuc va thfi gidi trong eac quan he dau tu thucmg mai Trung Qude, da khien cho vi the va tam anh hudng cua qudc gia nay ngay mot tang. Trung Qudc trd thanh nhan td ehinh trong eac van de lien quan dfin an ninh khu vuc Chau A - Thai Binh Duong nhu van dfi Dai Loan, Bac Trifiu Tifin va vin de Bifin Ddng. Thuc te nay khifin Chinh quyen My phai thua nhan rang, ve mat chifin lupc da cd su mat can bing trfin cac khu vuc khac nhau tren the gidi, ham y la My da khdng gianh dii sir quan tam ve mat chifin lupc doi vdi khu vuc Chau A - Thai Bmh Duong.
III. Nhung tham vong mdi cua Nhat Ban
My van coi ddng minh Nh$t Ban la
"xuong sdng" trong chinh sach ddi vdi khu vyc Ddng Bac A. Mdi quan he cd tinh lich su dupc that chat hi sau Chien tranh thfi gidi thii hai nay dang dupe My cung cd dudi sir bao hp ve an ninh trong nhiing gidi han ciia Hien phap Nhat Ban.
Tuy nhien, nhirng thay ddi trong ban cd dia chinh tri the gidi sau Chien tranh Lanh cimg nhimg thanh qua ve su phat trien thin ky Nhat Ban lien tuc qua nhieu thap ky da va dang lam xao trdn nhan thiic vfi mpt nudc Nhat vdn bj Ie thude trong chinh sach ddi ngoai. Trudc thuc tfi nay cac nha lanh dao Nhat Ban, dae bifit tu thdi Thii tudng Hatoyama da tien hanh mot budc ngoat quan trong trong chinh sach ddi ngoai ciia minh, dua Nhat Ban trd thanh mdt ''Quoc gia binh thuang". Y nghia co ban eua khai niem nay dupc giai thieh; Qude gia binh thudng la qude gia cd quan dpi rieng, cd nfin dpc lap tu chti, cd tieng ndi, cung nhu trach nhiem trudc cac van de qudc te, va cd mpt vi thfi chinh tri tuang xung vdi tifim luc kinh tfi trong can can quyfin Iuc the gidi. Tuy nhifin, hon ai het ban than Nhat Ban hieu ro nhung rao can nao cho con dudng di dfin mue tieu trfin (chinh la nhiing han che bdi Hien phap), bdi vay Nhat Ban da dieu ehinh ehinh sach ddi ngoai cua minh theo ba hudng, cdn gpi la chinh sach ''Da phmmg vi":. I) Duy tn va ndng cdp hiep u&c an ninh My - Nhat va tang cuang quan he vai cac nuac phuang Tdy thuoc nhom G7; 2) Quay tra lai chdu A nhdm gidnh vai trd chil dgo a khu virc; 3) Tham gia lich cue trong khuon kho Lien Hap quoc, gdnh trdch nhiem tru&c cdc vdn de todn cdu vd gidnh ghe uy vien ihieang true Hoi dong Bdo an cua to chuc ndy.
Ba hudng ciia chinh sach "Da phirang v/" da thfi hifin rd rang tham vpng mdi
s o 11-2014 CHAU MY NGAY NAY cfla Nhat Ban, va ttong ca ba npi dung
cfla chinh sach nay deu eho thay udc mudn cd mdt -vi till ddc lap ban cua Nhat Ban ttong radi quan he vdi My. Ddi vdi Nhat Ban, ngay ca viec nang cap Hipp udc an ninh My - Nhat cfing cd ham y ttong dd. Lien minh se la tara la chan cho qudc gia nay ttach khdi nhimg nghi ngd cfla the gidi ve chfl nghTa quan pMet, ddng thdi giup Nhat Ban ngan chan va kilm che Trung Qudc, ddng thdi ttanh khd nang My - Trung cd tiie hen kit vdi nhau de chdng Nhat. Song lieu dieu nay cd man thuan vdi mue tieu ttd thanh mpt
"qude gia bmh thudng" hay khdng. Nhat Ban hieu id vi tri cfla minh khi My mong mudn quay lai khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, do dd viec nang cip Hiep udc an ninh My - Nhat duoc Nhat Ban Meu la xay dtmg rapt nen tang nira d loi ich chung tten co sd cfla su binh ding.
Trong khi vdi My, binh dang la su chia se ganh njng va ttach nhiem thi Nhat Ban cho ring bmh dang nam d quyln quyit dinh chung'*
Rd rang quan he My - Nhat khdng cdn la mdt cMeu nhu frudc, Nhat Ban dang meng mudn nMlu hon ttpng moi quan he vdi My, va tiiam vpng cua Nhat Ban vl rapt vi the tuong xiing hon d khu -vuc tiidng qua cMin lupc "xdy dung long ttn "
vdi hinh anh "dan nhan bay"" dang dupc fliuc day. Theo do, ngoai ly do vl su frdi day cua rapt dpi fltu nhu Trang Qupc, thi My dang mudn cflng cd raoi quan hp ddng minh vdi Nhjt Ban dl nhim chic chan hon vl mpt su hp frp dang tin cay
cho nhiing budc di frong cbinh sach ddi ngoai "xoay true" cfla minh.
IV. Thay ddi nhan thirc va thai dp cua Hiin Quoc trong quan he My - Han
Trade khung hoang tai cMnb (2008), My rat quan tam va thuc day quan he vdi Nhat Ban, An Dp, Ausfralia, tadonesia, Viet Nam. Nhtmg ngupc lai, lien minh My - Han Qudc trudc khung hoang ddng bang do xung dot quan diem tten ban dao Tnlu Tien. Han Qudc khdng cdn phan biet ranh gidi che dp xa hdi va y thuc be chuyen sang xuit phat tu lpi ich dan tpc va quan he anh em, mong mudn nhanh chdng M hda giai vcii Trieu Tien, thuc Men tu chu tiidng nhit dan tdc Trilu Tien Chinh sach tiep xuc cua Kira Yong Nam,
"Chinh sach /\nh duong" cfla Kim Dae- jung va cbinh sach hda giai cua Rob Moo- hyun la nhfing minh ehiing. Tiong vin dl hat nhan cua Trilu Tien, Han Qudc kien tri chu traong giai quyet hda binh tiidng qua ddi tiioai, nd luc thflc diy hdi dam sau ben, phan ddi sfl dung -vfi Mc. Han Quoc lo ng^ thai dp cimg iin va giai phap tiimg phat cfla My doi vdi Trilu Tien se dem den tai hpa, pha hoai dn dinh tten ban dao va bat lpi doi vdi Mong lai hda binh thdng nhat, tiiam ehi cd till ldi cuon Han Qudc vao mpt cudc chiln ttanh khdng mong muon. Vi vay, Han Quoc chfl traong thuc Men chinh sach mem deo doi vdi Trieu Tien, nhung My cho iang chinh sach dd se khuyen kMch Trilu Tien hung hang. Su bat ddng ve chiln lupc giua Han Quoe va My frong ehinh sach
CHAUMY NGAY NAY
ddi vcii Trieu Tien ed the se din den kha nang Hiin Qudc "xa lanh" My ttong cdng viec cua ban dao.
Ben canh dd, Trang Qudc da va dang ttd thanh ddi tac thuong raai liin nhit cfla Han Qudc, thflc day su tMnh vupng cfla Han Qudc va cfing tiera an nhieu nguy CO lfli lo ve su khdng phu thupc vao lien minh My - Han Qudc. Trang Qudc la radt frong nhiing nhan td khach quan de My thit chat quan he ddng minh vdi Han Qudc. Theo dd. My da khdng the dua vao sue raanh kinh t l cua rmnh de thuyet phue Han Qudc chap nhan cac cbinh sach cua My. Han Qudc Men giao thucmg vdi Trang Qudc nhieu hon so vdi My. Hon nfla, do kha nang quan su gia tang cua Han Qudc (dieu gan trac tiep vdi dia vi va kha nang kinh te cua nudc nay de mua vfi khi). Men nay Han Qude phu thude vao My it bon so vdi bat ky thdi diem nao khae ke tu khi cudc chien ttanh Trieu Tten ket thuc.
Sau Chien ttanh Lanh din nay, sue manh tdng hpp cfla Han Qudc da dupc nang len dang ke, tam ly dan tpc chfl nghla frdi day, y thflc tu chfl dupc tang cudng, tinh chat phu thupc vao My giara di, ddng thdi hp da chfl ddng tao khoang each vdi My ca ve ngoai giao, qudc phdng va tinh cam tam ly.
Ve ngogt gtao, qude gia nay dang thuc day ehinh sach "ngoai giao M chu"
va "ngoai giao can bing", thara gia van bai cMnh tri nude ldn d Ddng A vdi tu the eua mpt nude nua tnmg lap, ed gang frd thanh "ben can bang" va qudc gia
dau mdi frong cue dien Ddng Bac A. Ve an mnh, Han Qudc ra sue thuc hien nen qudc phdng tu chfl. Nudc nay cang khdng hai ldng vdi mdi quan be quan su khdng ximg dang do My chi phdi, raong mudn giam btit su le thudc vao quan dpi My, phan dau de thay ddi ddng minh quan su My - Han Qudc thanh quan he ddi tac bd sung bd frp lan nhau. Ve xd hdi, tam ly chdng My frong nudc Han Qudc tang len. Dieu nay chu yeu dupc phan anh qua thai dp bat binh cua ngudi Han Qude ddi vdi dia vi cfla quan dpi My tten dat nudc hp.
Vdi tat ca nhiing Men ddng bat lpi ke tten. My cang ndng long mudn thuc hien mdt su dieu chinb chien luoc d Ddng Bac A ndi chung, vdi Han Qudc ndi rieng nham cflng cd mdi quan be nay bon nua, nhanh chdng xda bd tam ly lo ngai ve mdt su khdng ben vilng cfla lien minh My - Han frong tuong lai.
V. Vai trd ngay ciing tang cua cac quoc gia khu vue Dong Nam A (ASEAN)
Trong bdi eanh cupc canh franh anh hudng giua cac nudc ldn dang dien ra gay gat d khu vuc chau A Thai Binb Duong ndi chtmg va khu vuc Ddng A ndi rieng. My dang rit mong mudn mpt ASEAN manh. Tai sao lai nhu vay?
Cd the ndi, hau het cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A deu cd loi ich tbiet than ddi vdi khu vuc Bien Ddng, frong dd khdng it eac qude gia xac lap chfl quyen ddi vdi cac khu vuc khac nhau thuoc Bien Ddng theo Luat Biln 1982 Tuy
CHAU .MY NGAY NAY nhien, Bien Ddng frong nMeu nam frd
Iai day ludn frd thanh khu vuc gay franh chap giua cac qudc gia hen quan, frong dd ndi bat nhat la su bit ddng giua rapt sd qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN ddi vdi ban do cd "du&ng luoi bd" cua Trung Qudc. Theo dd, neu mpt ASEAN ylu se khdng cd lpi chp My frong viec tao ddi ttpng vdi Trang Qudc tai khu vuc. Neu Trung Quoc hien thuc hda dupc nhung tham vpng ve chu quyen cua minh d Biln Ddng thi lpi ich cua My se hi anh hudng ra sao, neu cac qudc gia ASEAN phat tiien dudi su cbi phdi cfla nen kinb te Tnmg Qudc tM nhu the nao?
Su lo lang cua My la cd can cu khi tit nhieu cac qudc gia Ddng Nara A dang hi lp thupc ldn ve thuong raai frong quan he vdi Trang Qudc, va Trang Qudc cflng mong mudn ngay cang that chat hon su phu thudc dd nham dat dupc rdifing thda thuan ve chu quyen, cfing nhu vl dia vi chinh fri tai khu vuc theo hudng cd loi cho Trang Qudc. Do dd.
My nhan tiiuc sau sic vl mdt frong nhung frong tara cua minh khi frd lai chau A - Thai Binh Duong la cung co mdi quan he vdi ASEAN, dac bilt frong cac hoat dpng kmh tl thuong mai, ung hd ASEAN frong cac no Mc xay dung cdng ddng cac qudc gia Ddng Nam A.
Ben eanh viec mong muon mpt ASEAN manh len nhim tao doi frpng vcii Trung Quoc d khu vuc, tM khu vuc Ddng Nam A v6n da tdn tai nhung moi quan tam an ninh chung giua My vdi rapt sd quoe gia thanh vien nhu
Philippines, Thai Lan, Singapore. Hiep dinh cflng nhau chi vipn hau can giua My va Philippines cho phep My su dung tit ca cac co sd quan su nhu can cu Ichdng quan Clark, can cu hai quan Subic cua Philippines. Thda thuan khung ve hpp tac ddi tac chien Iupc frong phdng thu an ninh vao tharig 10/2003 la thdi dilm danh diu Singapore frd thanh ddng minh chien lupc cfla My ngoai NATO, Nhu vay, viec My tien hanh chinh sach "xoay true", frong do dac Met quan tam din an ninh Bien Ddng cflng nhu su thdng nhit cfla ASEAN, ddng nghTa vdi viec My tai khang dinh nhiing uu tien dac biet frong quan be vdi cac nudc dong minh tai khu vuc nay.
VI. Kit luan
Barack Obama ttd thanh vi tdng thdng thu 44 cfla Hop chung qudc Hoa Ky ttong ttang thai qudc gia nay dang phai vat ldn vdi nhung he luy cua cudc khflng hoang tai chinh, keo theo su bl tac chinh tri va nhting budc di cin dupc suy tinh lai frong viec thilt kl rapt chinh sach ddi ngoai mdi. Rdi khdi Trung Ddng, gsp khd khan d thi ttudng Chau Au, frong khi dd chau A Thai Binh Ducmg ndi len nhu mdt khu vuc phat trien nang dpng vdi nhung tai nguyen dia chien lupe quan frpng, cung nhirng thach thu:c tii c4c eudng qudc mdi ndi frong khu vuc da thuc day My tien hanh
"chien luoc xoay true" frd thanh
"eudng qudc Thai Binh Duong", tai
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 11-2014 43 khang dinh vi thfi lanh dao khu vue va
can trd bit ky ddi thii nao cd ciing chung tham vpng •
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1, Adam B. Lowther (2013): The Asia-Pacific Century Challenges and Opportunities. CRC Press, 1 edition
2, BP 2014 Statistical Review of World Energy 3 Do Cao Minh (2010)' An ninh Biin Dong nhin
tir tranh chdp loi ich kinh ti giOa cdc nuoc lien quan. Tap chi Quan he Quoc phong 4. Do Minh Thai (2011)- LOT ich cua cdc cuong
qudc vd thi che khu vuc trong vdn di an mnh Biin Ddng, Tap chi Quan he Quoc phong 5 IanF,Fergusson, Bruce Vaughn (2011): 77je
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, Congressional Research Service (US) 6 Tran Bong (2014)- Biin Dong Dia chiin luac
vd Tiim ruing kinh ti, Nghien ciiu Bien Dong 7. http //www thongluan org vn
8. http //news xinhuanet.com/english/china 9 ht^://www,tuanvietnam net 10,www,sbv.gov vn 11. www.tamnhin net
12.https //www imf org/extemal/pubs/ft/weo/201 3/02/weodata/index aspx
13 http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/presl3 e/
pr688_e.pdf 14.www.vietnamplus vn
Chu thick
1. 2011 la "Nam Chau A -Thai Binh Ducmg ciia My" www,vietnamplus.vn
2. BP 2014 Staustical Review of World Energy tai hflp://www bp.com/en/global/corporate/about- bp/energy-economics/statisticai-review-of- world-energy/review-by-energy-type/oil/oil- reserves html.
3. fen F Fergusson, Bmce Vaughn (2011) The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.
Congressional Research Service (US), Decl2, 2011.
4 International Monetary Fund (2013): World Economic Outlook Database. tai htlps //www imf
org/exteniaI/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/inde x.aspx
5 WTO: World Trade 2012. Prospects for 20/3.
tai http://www wto.org/english/news_e/
presl3_e/pr688_e pdf
6 TTXVN (2014): Trung Qudc la thi truang nhdp hdng hoa ldn thir ba cua My. ngav^/5/14 7. East-West Center (2013) US-ASEAN Imports
and Exports, tai http ://www.asiamattersforamerica.
org/asean/data/trade/importexport
8. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (2014) tai http://wwwustrgov/
countnes-regions/southeast-asia-pacific/
association-southeast-as lan-nations-asean 9. Do Cao Minh (2010)" An ninh Biin Ddng nhin
tir tranh chdp loi ich kinh ti giS^ cdc nudc liin quan. Tap chi Quan he Quoc phong, so 4/2010 10. Tran Bong (2014): Biin Dong: Dia chiin luac
vd Tiim ndng kmh ti, Nghien ciiu Bien Dong, ngay 30/7/2014
11 Geof Dyer (2010): Cugc chm quyin luc a Bien Ddng. Tuan Vi?t Nam, truy cap nga>' 12/8/2010 tai http://www.tuanvietnam.net/
2010-08-11 -cuoc-choi-quyen-luc-o-bien-dong 12, TTXVN (2013): Trung Qudc sd hiru trdi
phiiu My vuot qud 1300 ty USD. ngay 17/12/2013
13 Viet Phucmg (2010) Din khi ndo thi kmh li Trung Qudc vuot My, WAWI tamnhin net nga\
25/12/2010
14 Adam B Lowther (2013)' The Asia-Pacific Century Challenges and Opportunmes, CRC Press; I edition August 28, 2013.
15. Chinh phii Trung Quoc cong bo chi phi quoc phong nam 2012 ciia nudc nay la 106.4 ty USD (ldn thli hai the gidi), tang 11,2% so voi nam 2011. Dan theo China's defence budget to grow 112 pet in 2012: spokesman, http //news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012- 03/04/c 131445012 htm
16 Patrick M. Comin (2009): Quan he Mp - Nhgt: khung hodng ding hien hinh http,//www thongluan,org vn, 21/11/2009 17 Nhat Ban da va dang thiic day chien luoc
hudng Dong manh me, "thoat Au nhap A", Nhat hy v(Dng se trd thanh con nhan dau dan trong ban cd dia chinh tri tai khu vuc chau A noi chung va khu vuc Dong A noi rieng..
4 4 - « : s o 11-2014 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
QUAN HE GltTA MY VA CUBA
t^u'^i. .i r
Nguyin Thuy Dmmg Vien Nghien cuu Chau My
X
uit phat tu cac dung dp tai Vinh Con Lcyn cfia cupc khflng hpang ten Ida Cuba (nam I960), chp din nay quan he My - Cuba cd Hch su hon 50 nam cit dflt ngoai giao va cira v|n vl kinh te, thuang mai. Cac chinh sach cim van cfla My ddi vdi Cuba da tao ra nhung anh hudng ldn fren nMeu Bhh vuc cfla Cuba, va My cung mit nMeu CO hpi kmh tl tai qudc dap nay. Tuy nMen, nhung nam gin day, mdi quan hp nay cd diu Mpu chuyin sang rapt giai doan mdi. Quan hp hai nudc dang cd nMlu tien tiiln hon kl hi khi Cuba dudi su lanh dao cfla Chu tich Raul Casfro, va nhung cbinh sach ndi ldng cira van cua CMnh quyln Tong tiidng Obama. Bai vilt se tap tnmg phan tich mdi quan he My va Cuba frong lich sfl va thuc frang quan he Men nay.1. Boi canh Ijeh su'
Quan he ddng bang giua Hoa Ky va Cuba bat ngudn tu raau thuan chinh tri va kinh tl dat dinh dilm vao dau nhiing nam I960, giua luc CMen franh Lanh dang dien ra. Sau kM each mang Cuba thang lpi vao nam 1959, Cuba bit diu Mnh thanh thda thuan thuong mai vdi Liln Xd, qudc him hda tai san thudc sd hiiu cfla My, ngay sau do My cung da cd nhung
banh ddng dap tta vl kmh tl. Tdng tiidng My Dwight D. Eisenhowei cit giam ban ngach nhap khiu dudng, vdn la nganh cdng ngMep chinh cfia Cuba. WasMngton sau do tMit lap mpt lenh cim gin nhu tit ca hang hda xuit khau sang Cuba, va Tdng thdng ke nMem John F. Kennedy tilp tuc md rdng thanh mpt lenh cam van kinh tl diy dfl bao gdm viec ban chl di lai ngMem ngat.
Dimg trade su uy hiep vl quan su va quyit dinh dinh chi vien frp kinh tl cfla My, Cuba van kien cudng. Nhan dupc su flng bp manh me cua Lien Xd, ngay 3/7/1960, lanh hi Cuba, Fidel Casfro, Myen bd tii nay vl sau se la mpt bp phan can thanh cua phe xa hdi chfl nghTa.
Ngay 2/9/1960, frong mdt cupc mit tinh vdi su tham gia eua bang fram nghin ngudi, Chfl tieh Fidel Casfro da dpc ban
"Tuyen ngdn La Habana" ndi tieng, kich liet chi trich chinh sach md ipng xam lupc cua My d My Latinh, Myen bd
"My Latinh la cfla ngudi My Latinh".
Sau khi di theo eon dudng chu nghTa xa hpi, dudi su iing hd eua cac nudc xa hpi chfl ngMa, phong frao chdng My cua ngudi Cuba dang cao. Thang 1/1961, My cit quan he ngoai giao vdi Cuba. Ngay 20/1/I96I, kl nMem Tdng tiidng Dwight Eisenhowei, John F. Kennedy frd tiianh vi
