JQ
CHINH SACH CUA CHINH QUYEN DONALD TRUMP DOI Vdi AN DO TRONG BOI CANH
AN DO - THAI BINH Dl/ONG Til DO VA RONG Md
• ThS QUACH THI HUE yien Quan he quoc te.
Hoc vien Chinh tri quoc gia Ho Chi Minh
• Tom tdt: Trong Chien liidc An Bg Dildng - Thdi Binh Dtidng An Bg dtidc Chinh quyen Donald Trump coi Id quoc gia chu chot gidp My bdo ve ldi ich tgi khu vtic vd duy tri vi the thong tri the gidi. Bdng nhiing hdnh ddng cu the tren cdbamgt trdn ngogi giao, kinh te, qudn sti. My khai thdc tdi da mdu thuan An - Trung ldi keo An Bg vephia minh dekiim che Trung Quoc. Dong thdi, vdi chinh sdch day mgnh hien daihoa qudn dgi. An Do dang tri thdnh mgt thi trtidng beo bd cho cdc nhd sdn xuat vii khi cua My. Sti tiidng dong ve ldi ich, y chi ciia lanh dgo hai ntidc dang gdp phdn thuc day quan he My - An ngdy cdng trd nen khdng khit hdn. Trong boi cdnh quoc tehien nay, Chinh quyen Donald Trump dang coi An Do Id nhdn to cdn bdng quyen Itic tgi chdu A vd Id quoc gia quan trgng trong Chiin iMc An Do Dtidng -Thdi Binh DUdng.
• Tii khda: chinh sdch cua Chinh quyen Donald Trump, Chien liidc An Bg Dtidng - Thdi Binh Diidng An Dg.
1. Vi tri cua An Do trong cliien lu^ffc An Do tro cot tii trong chign luoc toan cSu cua My tai Du-ong - Thai Binli Dirong cua clii'nh quyen Idiu vuc Nam A. Tren tliuc te, ilay la khu vuc Donald TVump dang co nhting bat on dinh ve chinh tri dac biet
An Do la quoc gia co di6n tich va quy mo dan la van &i tranh chap lanh thd gitia cac qudc gia so ldn nhat Nam A. Hi6n nay, An Dp la nudc cd lang gifag vdi nhau, nen cting gay ra nhOng tdcddphattrienkinhte.quansunhanhnhatva thach thiic ldn ddi vdi nd luc thuc day tang la nhan td chu chdt duy Or hda binh va dn dinh trudng kinh td va hda binh khu vuc. Do dd, vai trong khu vuc nay. Vi the, My coi An Do la ddi tac ttd cua An Dp ngay cang dupe nang len vdi vi the quan ttong, "ddng minh Ur nhien" ttong Chien chu chdt trong viec giir gin dn dinh hda binh va lupc An Dd Duong - Thai Binh Duong, ddng vai phat ttien khu vuc. Ben canh dd, chinh sach ddi
LfLUAN CHINHTR!-So 4/2020
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Tong thong My Donal Iwrnp uep don long irong Thu tu&ng An Do Modi trong chuyen thdm My nhdn dip tham Ju khoa hop c ua Dai Hgi dung Lien Hop Quoc ngdy 22-9-2019 _ Anh: AFP
ngoai cua My dudi thdi Tdng thdng Trump uu tign dat dupe 3 muc tidu tai chau A dd la duy tri su dn dinh tai khu vuc An Dp Duong-Thdi Binh Duong, bao ve lgi Ich thuong mai cua My vd kiem soat chg dp Bdc Trigu Tidn. An Dp hdi tu kha ndng cd the giup My dat dugc 3 muc tieu tten. Day Id ygu td quydt dinh khien chinh quyen Trump uu tien chinh sach doi ngoai vdi An Do.
Tu mpt gdc nhin khde, My danh gia An Dp la mdt "ddi ttpng" cua Trung Qudc tai khu vuc do hai nudc cd tuong 3aing ve dien tich, dan so va su vuon len dn tugng ttong thdp nhien vua qua ve cd sue manh cimg, sue manh mem vd sue martii sdc ben. An Dp la mpt ttong rtiiiing nudc tren the gidi khdng tham gia vao Sang kien
"Vanh dai, Con dudng cua Trung Qudc" dong thdi ung hd Chien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh
Duong cua My. Do dd, hon bao gid het. My cdn tm tign thdt chat quan he My - An vi nhung muc tieu qudc gia ttong bdi canh An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duong.
Cd the thay, ehinh quygn Tdng thdng Trump dd budc dau dat dugc nhimg thdnh cdng ttong quan he voi An Dp. Hai nudc da ndng cap mdi quan he len thdnh quan he ddi tdc chien luge toan cau vdi nhimg dot pha quan ttgng ttgn nhigu hnh vuc chinh tri - ngoai giao, khtii te vd an ninh - quan su. Mdi quan he tdt dep nay ciing vdi Nhdt Ban, Han Qudc, Uc, Phtiippines, Thai Lan... gdp phdn cung cd mang ludi ddng mmh, ddi tac cua My d khu vuc chau A. Thdng qua dd, duy tri va cung cd vi thg, tam anh hudng cua My d khu vuc, thay ddi can cdn luc lugng d khu vuc tiieo hudng cd loi cho My, nhdt la ttong loan tinh
LVLUAN CHINH TRI-Sd 4/2020
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kiem chg "ddi tiiu" Trung Qudc. Tuy An Do xdc dinh khdng ttd tiianh "quan bdi" cda My ttong chien luge bao vay, kigm chg Trung Qudc nhung quan he My - An Do phat tiign martii me da phdn nao ngan chdn va ban che dugc viec md rpng pham vi anh huong cua Trung Qudc d chau A, ddc biet la tai khu vuc Nam A, noi dugc coi la sdn sau ctia An Dp.
Nhu vay, vdi vi tri dia chign luge quan ttpng cung vdi quy md vl dien tich, ddn sd, khih tg, qudn su to ldn. An Dd ttd thanh qudc gia cd vi tri dac biet quan ttpng ttong chien lupc An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duong cua My. Chinh quyen Trump rtiian dien dugc nhdng lgi ich to ldn ttong quan he voi An Dp vi niroc nay cd du nang luc dam bao an ninh qudc gia va an ninh khu vyc. Dieu dd gdp phdn khdng nho gidp giam bdt gdnh ndng an nirib cho My, nhdt la hai quan nuoc nay. Ben canh dd cdn tao digu kidn thudn lpi cho My tap trung ddi phd vdi cac digm ndng an ninh khac a khu vuc va tten the gioi. Hpp tac quan su trd thdnh mat tran chign luge trong quan he hai nudc. My coi An Do la thanh vien chd chdt ttong nhdm "Bd tu kim cuong - My - An Dp - Nhdt Ban - Austtaha". Chi^n luge An nirtii Qudc gia cua My nam 2017 "hoan nghenh viec An Dp ttdi day nhu mdt cudng qudc hang dau thg gidd, mdt ddi tdc vg qudc phdng vd chidn luge cd ttpng lupng cua cudng qudc nay".
2. Chinh sach hop tac cua chinh quyin Donald IVump vol An Dp
Ve phia My, muc tigu quan trgng ttong mdi quan he voi An Do Id bao ve lgi ich qudc gia cua My, cu the la giuvi the va tam anh huong cua My a chau A, lam suy ygu va dan loai bo anh hudng cua Trung Qudc; cung cd vung chdc ttat tu chmh tn kirtii te rdng ma do Mf ddn ddt tai chau A.
Chinh sach cda My ddi vdi An Dd t^p trung chu yeu ttgn cdc Unh vyc sau:
Vi qudc phdng - an nmh:
Mdi quan he ttgn Hnh vuc qude phdng - an nmh dugc xem la can cdt ttong quan he ddi tac chidn luge toan cau My - An rtiidm dam bao lpi ich qudc gia cua moi nudc vd chia se nhiing gia tii chung vi muc tieu la dam bao an ninh khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong vd thg gidi.
Trong Chien luge An nmh Qudc gia thang 12- 2017, My cam kgt: "lam sdu sdc hon hpp tdc chidn luge vdi An Dp va hd trg vai ttd lanh dao cua An Dp ttong an ninh An Dp Duong va trong todn khu vuc rpng ldn hon".
Ludt Sang kien tai bao dam chdu A cua My nam 2018 khdng dinh tdm quan ttpng cua quan he ddi tac chien luge giua My - An trong viec thdc ddy hda binh an ninh tai khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong; kgu gpi tang cuong va mo rdng quan he ddi ngoai, kinh tg vd an ninh giua My va An Dp. Hai qudc gia thdng nhat cam ket duy tri Khudn khd mdi vi quan he qudc phdng My - An ky tai Arlington, Vttginia ngay 28-6-2005, Sang kidn Thuong mai vd Cdng nghe Qudc phdng My - An khdi xudng ndm 2012, Tam nhin Chien lupc chung ddi vol An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duong va khu vuc An Dp Duong cdng bd vao ngdy 25-1-2015, Tuyen bd chung ve su thinh vupng thdng qua quan he ddi tac cdng bd ngay 26-6-2017. My cdp cho An Do quy chg ddi tac qudc phong quan trgng. Trdn ngn tang la nhung cam ket da dat dugc, nhdm nang tam thuang mai qudc phdng vd hgp tac cong nghe giira My va An Dp ngang tdm vdi ddng minh va ddi tdc thdn can nhdt cua My, chmh quyen Nha trdng tien hanh tiie che hda cac cam ket md dudng cho viec tiep can tu do bang sang chg voi miic dp rdng ddi vdi cdng nghg ludng dung, tao thuan loi cho viec dieu phdi tap tran chung vg chinh sach va chign luge qudc phong, trao ddi qudn su vd vigng didm bai
LY LUAN CHfNHTR!-S6 4/2020
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cang bd trg cho hgp tac qudc phdng giua My vd An Dp.
Chinh quygn Donald Trump chu trucmg ldi keo An Dd vao hen minh qudn su bao vay, kiem ehg Tmng Qudc. Ngay 26-6-2017, nhdn dip chuygn thdm cua Thu tudng Modi, Bd Ngoai giao My cdng da phe chuan thuong vu bdn may bayvantaIquansuC-17 tri gia 365 trieu USD cho New Dehli, chdp thudn ban cdc may bay khdng ngudi lai Guardian MQ-9B tti gid 2 ty USD nhdm giup An Do tang cudng hoat dpng gidm sat tten An Dp Duong. Dau ndm 2018, Lau Nam Gdc da ddi tgn Bd Tu lenh Thai Binh Duong tiianh Bd Tu lenh An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong - ddng thai dupe coi la "bat den xanh" se day manh hgp tdc qudc phdng vdi An Dp'". My quygt dinh ngung khoan vien ttp 300 ttieu USD cua Quy hd ttg lien minh (CSF) cho Pakistan'^', va dpng thai nay dugc An Dp hoan nghenh.
Tai cudc Ddi thoai Chign luge An - My 2+2 td chuc tai New Delhi, An Do ngay 6-9-2018, hai bgn da ky Thoa thuan An ninh va Tuong thich Lien lac (COMCASA), md dudng cho viec ban cac thiet bi quan su nhay cam cua My sang qudc gia Nam A nay, trong do cd may bay khdng ngudi lai Guardian; eho phep An Dp tigp can thigt hi hen lac qudn su tu My vd cho phep trao ddi cac thdng tin da dugc md hda trgn nen tang sd dung chung giiia luc lupng vu trang An Dp va My.
Trong bdo cdo Chien luge An Dp Duong- Thdi Birtii Duong cua Bd Qudc phdng My cdng bd ngdy 1-6-2019, My khang dinh tiep tuc tao thuan lgi cho viec hgp tdc thuong mai qudc phdng, chia se cdng nghe qud'c phdng, hpp tdc vg cdng nghiep qudc phdng vd ddi mdi qudc phdng, ttong dd tap trung vao ddng phat trign va san xudt trang thiet bi vu khi phue vu cho hien dai hda quan ddi. Phia My khdng dinh hai
nudc td chuc tap ttdn chung vdi su tham gia cua 3 quan chung hai nudc Idn dau tien se dugc td chiic, tigp tuc hgp tac ve an ninh bien, giam sat bien, cuu hd, ciiu nan, chdng cudp bign, chong khung bd, vd cdc van de xuyen quoc gia khde.
Tu ngay 13 den 21-11-2019, An Do vd My td chuc tap ttan chung mang ten" Tiger Triumph"
vdi su tham gia cua 3 qudn chung hai, luc, khdng qudn 2 nudc dpc theo bd bidn phia ddng Vinh Bengal. Trpng tdm cua cupc tap ttan nay la ho ttg nhan dao, ciiu hp, ciiu nan. Ngoai ra, cdc khoa muc khde cung dugc thuc hien nhu bao dam an ninh hang hai, tac chien dd bd. Ngodi ra, ttong cudc tap ttan nay, hai bgn tien hdnh thu nghigm cdc giai phdp cdng nghd khdng gian mang va chia se thdng tin hen lac da ky ket vdd My*^'.
Hidn cd nhigu ddng thai cho thdy Chitih phu An Dp dang thuc day thoa thudn qudn su thu ba vdi My nhdm ndng cao kha ndng ddi pho vdi Tnmg Qudc va Paldstan sau mdt loat dung do giua An Do vdd Pakistan va Trung Quoc dpc theo dudng kiem soat thuc te hai ben. An Dd dd ky vdi My hai vdn kidn gdm LEMOA, COM- CASA. Tuy nhien, hai nudc van chua ky thda thuan thu ba cd tdn la Thda thudn hpp tac va trao ddi ca ban vg khdng gian dia ly (BECA)'^'.
Theo luat phap cua My, mpt qudc gia can phai ky 3 thoa thudn trgn dg cd thg sd huu cac he thdng vu khi, va hen lac tdi tdn tu My, ttong dd CO khi tdi qudn su cdng nghg cao. Neu cd dugc thoa thudn nay, quan he hgp tdc qudc phdng My - An se dugc day len rapt cap dp mdi cho phep hai nudc trien khai cdng tac ddnh gia chung vg mdi de dpa, Ign ke hoach khan cdp cho cac boat ddng chung, chia se thdng tin tmh bdo, difin tap chi huy va huan luyen thuc dia, kigm sodt va lign lac, len ke hoach cho trign khai tac chien va hd trg hau cdn. Su hgp tac qudc phdng song phuong My - An trd nen
LYLUAN CHfNHTR!-So 4/2020
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manh me hon nhd viec ky ket cac thda thudn nhu LEMOA va COMCASA song vdn cdn BECA nhumpt thanh td can ban cudi cimg dd lam sdu sdc them quan he ddi tac chign luge My - An.
Ve chinh tri - ngoai giao
Dudd thdi Chinh quyen Tdng thdng Donald Trump, My coi An Dp la im tign hang dau ttong chinh sdch ddi ngoai. Trong chuyen thdm My ngdy26-6-2017cuaThutudngAnDpNarenda Modi, Tdng thdng Donald Trump ca nggi quan he giua Washhigton va New Dehh "viing martii hon bao gid hgt", danh gia An Dp Id mdt ddi tdc an nhih quan trgng, ddng tin cdy vd bay to tin tudng nhimg rdo can trong quan he thuong mai song phuong se sdm dugc dd bo"^'. Trong chuyen thdm An Do ngdy 25-10-2017, Ngoai trudng My Rex Tilerson khang dinh "My ung hp An Dp ndi ldn trd thanh cudng qudc hang dau thg gidi, coi An Do la qudc gia chu chdt trong Chien luge cua My vi mdt Afghanistan hda bhlh vd dn dinh, giup tdng cudng tigm luc va the che cua Afghanistan". Ddng thdd My cung mong mudn An Dp hgp tac vdi Nhdt Ban vd Australia tao nen rapt "tti gidc kim cuang"
ben vung chdng lal cac hdnh ddng hieu chign cua Trung Qudc, ttong dd cd van de tranh chap tai Bien Ddng. Bgn canh dd. My mudn hpp tac vdd An Dp xay dung mang ludl dudng sa, hai cang thay the cho Sang kien day tham vgng
"Vanh dai, Con dudng" cua Trung Qudc.
Trong chuyen thdm My nhdn dip tham du khda hpp cua Dai Hpi ddng Lien Hgp Qudc ngdy 22-9-2019, Tdng thdng Donal Trump tiep ddn Thu tudng Modi vdi radt nghi thuc long trpng chua tung cd va dugc vi khach den tir New Delhi dap lai bdng mdt phan qua cd y nghia dac biet quan trgng do la kgu gpi cu tri My gdc An bo phieu ung hp dng Trump. Trong su kien "Xin chao Modi" td chiic tai Texas,
Tdng thdng Trump gpi Thu tuong Modi la
"ngudd ban thuc su" cua Nha Trang. Cdn Thu tudng Modi ca ngpd dng Trump vg nhung nd luc thuc day phat trien kinh td My va dua mdi quan he My - An ldn tam cao mdi. Trong bdi noi chuygn, Thu tudng An Dd hudng img khau hieu ttanh cu cua Tdng thdng My trudc ddy, ndi rang dng Trump "da lam cho nen kinh te My manh ttd lai". Chuyen tham nay da lam diu di quan he cang thdng hai nudc khi An Dp dp dung miic thug quan bd sung vdd 28 mat hang cua My sau khi M'y cham diit chg dd uu ddi thue quan phd cap (GPS) ddi vdd An Dp vao tiiang 6-2019.
Vekinh tiva thuangmai
Mdi quan he kinh te - thuong mai An - My trudc day tuong ddi ttam titi nay da tang len hon 80 ty do la mdt ndm, chl tinh rieng hang hda. My trd thanh ddi tac thuong mai ldn nhdt cda An Dp, ttong khi An Do dd trd thanh ddi tdc ldn thd 9 cua My vdi muc kim ngach 2017 la 74,3 ty USD va neu tmh ca dich vu la 126.2 ty USD, hai ben cam kdt nang thuang mai hai chieu Ign 5001^
USD'^i. Thdng 7-2018, My ddng y xep An Do ngang hdng vdi cac nudc thanh vign Td chuc Hiep udc Bdc Dai Tay Duong (NATO) va cac nudc ddng minh thdn can khac vg lmh vuc xudt khau cdng nghe nhu phan cimg, phdn mem didn tu va thiet hi thdng tin hgn lac.
Gan day, quan he kinh tg - thuang mai hai nudc dang vap phai mpt sd bat ddng. Tdng tiidng Trump vdn coi An Do la qudc gia ma My cd thdm tiiut tiiuong mai ldn. Cang tiiang giua New Dehli va Washington gia tdng khi chien luge "mua hang My, thue ngudd My" eua Tdng thdng Donald Trump mdu tiiudn vdi chien dich
"san xuat tai An Dp" cua Thu tudng Narendra Modi. My bay to su thidu hai ldng voi nhdng hanh ddng "mua hdng ndi dia", ban che dau tu
LYLUAN CHINHTR!-So4/2020
^
QUOCTEra nudc ngoai, phdn biet ddi xu vdd doanh nghigp nudc ngoai va bao ve quyen sd huu tri tue kem bleu qua... eua An Do. Cac quan chiic My dang can nhdc viec loai An Do ra khoi He thdng uu ddi thue quan phd cap (GSP), mpt chuong trinh cho phep New Delhi xuat khau cac hang hda nhu trang sue, phu tung xe vd ddng ea dien tri gid 5,6 ty dd la midn thue sang My (theo Reuters). Cung can phai ndi thgm rdng, GSP la chuong trinh nhdm giup 121 qudc gia dang phat trien tigp can d i ddng hon vdi ngudi tigu dung My va theo du lieu cua Chinh phu My thi An Do la ngudi hudng lpi Ion nhdt trong ndm 2017.
Mac du van edn mdt so nhiing bat hda nhung cdc nhd ngoai giao va kinh te nhdn dinh rdng quan he thuong mai giua My va An Dp van dang tigp tuc phdt trign. Trong chuygn thdm My cua Thu tudng Modi, hai ben da cd gang ha nhiet quan he, nhdt tti sdm hodn tdt hiep dinh thuong mai song phuong de loai bo nhiing khac biet trong quan he thuong mai hai nudc.
Sau khi rut khdi Hiep dinh Ddi tdc Kinh te toan dien khu vuc (RCEP) ngay 4-11-2019, Chlnh phu An Do cho biet dang nghien cuu mdt thoa thuan thuong mai song phuong vdi My- ddng thdi dugc cho la mdt su thay ddi ve chien lugc'^'.
Bao Times of India ddn ldi Bd tiudng Cdng thuong An Dp Piyush Goyal ndi: "Hien tai. An Dp dang thdm dd cac thda thudn thuong mai vdd My va Lien minh chau Au, nod ngdnh cong nghiep va dich vu An Dd cd tinh canh tranh vd hudng lgi tuviec tiep can thi trudng phat trien ldn". An Dp dang van ddng cho viec khdi phuc toan bd lgi ich tu GPS, mac du Chlnh quygn Donald Trump cho den nay ngu y se khdi phuc mdt phan he thdng ndy.
Chinh quygn Trump coi An Do la nhdn td can bdng quye'n luc tai chdu A va la qudc gia
quan ttpng ttong Chien luge An Dp Duong- Thdi Bmh Duong. Do do. My day manh hop tdc toan dien vdi AnDd, ldi keo An Dp tiiam gia bao vdy, kiem chd Trung Qudc. Tuy nhien, chinh quygn Modi thuc hign chi'nh sach ngoai giao khdn kheo, mdt mat hgp tac vdi My trong cac hnh vuc ma hai ben cd su hdi tu ve Igi ich, mat khac tranh hi ldi keo vdo cudc ttanh gidnh quyen luc, ddi ddu vdi Trung Qudc tai khu vuc.
An Dp chi chdp nhdn la nhan td "can bang quyen luc" tai khu vuc, giu vung vi thg nudc ldn ttong ttat tu thg gidi da cue hien nay. Hg chdp nhan di vdd Mf dg tang the mac ca vdi Tnmg Qude. Trong bdi canh nhu vay, Viet Nam cdn kheo leo, tan dung su gia tang anh huong cua cdc nudc ldn de phat trign dat nudc, cdn bang quan he vdd cdc nudc ldn, ttdnh bi ldi keo tham gia vdo cudc canh ttanh quyen luc giua My va Trung Qudc tai khu vuc O
(1) White House: US-India Jomt Statement US and India: Prosperity through Partnership lune 27, 2017.
(2)Theo Reuters; https://www.nhandan.org.vn s, ngay 22-12-2019.
(3) Dan theo; cis.org,vn: An Dp va My tang cuong quan he quan su ttong tap trdn chung "Tiger Tri- umph", ngay 19-11-2019.
(4) cis.org.vn: An Do sdp ky Hi6p udc Qudc phdng tiiu ba vdi Myll-4-2019.
(5) Remark by President Trump and PM Modi of India in Joint Press Statement, June 26,2017, White- house.gov.
(6) Bp thuong mai Hoa Ky: https://ustt.gov/coun- tnes-regions/south-centtal-asia/India.
(7) B.news.vn: An Do xem xet thda thuan thuang mai voi My sau khi nit khdi RCEP, ngay 6-H -2019.
LYLUAN CHiNH TRI-S64/2020
