SO02-2020 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
VIET NAM TRONG CHIEN LlTOC
CHAU A - THAI BINH DUONG CIJA TRUNG QUOC
Binh Cong Tuan*
Tom tat: Sau Bai hdi XIX (20J 7), Trung Qudc da de ra muc tiiu, din nam 2035, xay dimg Trung Quoc trd thdnh cudng qudc khu vuc Chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg. Vdi muc tieu tren, Trung Qudc da xay dimg mot Chien luoe Chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg mdi, bang viec thuc thi nhieu chinh sach hgp tdc ve an ninh vd kinh te trong khu vuc.
Dieu nay da tdc ddng true tiep den quan he Viet - Trung. Tren co sd piidn tich Chien luge Chdu A - Thdi Binh Ducmg cua Trung Qudc vd ddnh gid vi the cita Viet Nam trong chien luge nay, bdi viet neu ra mot sd hdm y ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Tir khoa: Viet Nam, Trang Qu6c, Chien luoc. Cliau A - Thai Binh Ducmg 1. Chien liroc Chau A - Thai Binh
Dmmg cua Trung Quoc
Hem 90 nam qua ke tit l^lii thanh lap Dang Cong san Trung Quoc (1921) va 70 nam thanh lap nuac Cpng hoa Nhan dan Trung Hoa (1949), muc tieu chien lugfc cua Trung Quoc lihong he thay doi, do la xay dung Trung Quoc tro thanh euong quoc so mot lanh dao the gioi. Sau Dai hoi XVIII Dang Cpng san Trung Quoc (2012), Trung Quoc da vuon len diing thil hai the gioi (sau My) ve quy mo nen liinh te, GDP dat 2.100 ty USD. Trung Quoc da dua ra ly luan ve viec "phuc hung vl dai dan tpc Trang Hoa", xay dimg "Giac mong Trung Quoc" vai hai muc tieu c6 tinh tieu chi:
"hai muc tieu 100 nam" (ky niem 100 nam thanh lap Dang (1921-2021) nham xay dung xa hpi Idia gia toan dien (thoat ngheo, xay dung xa hpi trang luu) va ky niem 100 nam thanh lap nude (1949-2049) xay dung thanh cong
Nha nuoc Trang Quoc hien dai hoa XHCN, van minh, dan chii, giau manh, hai hoa (Trang Quoc vung manh, tro thanh euong quoc, lanh dao the gioi). Sau Dai hpi XIX (2017) Trung Quflc da bo sung them muc tieu, den nam 2035 xay dung Trung Quoc trd thanh cudng quoc khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duang.
Trong npi dung Sach Trang: Chinh sach ciia Trung Quoc ve hap tac an ninh khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Duong (China's Policies on Asia-Pacific Security Cppperation'), cong bo ngay 11/01/2017, Trang Qudc da neu ra sau phan gdm; 1) Chu trucmg chinh sach ciia Trung Qudc ddi vdi sir hap tac an ninh trong khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Duong; 2) Y tudng an ninh d khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong ciia Trang Qudc; 3) Mdi quan he giira Trang Qudc vdi nhiing nuac chii yeu trong khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Duong; 4) Lap trudng va chu truang cila Tmng Qudc
* Tnrdng Dgi hgc Dai Nam
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 02-2020 ve cac van de ndng trong khu vuc; 5) Trung Qudc tham gia ca ch6 da bien trong khu vuc; 6) Trung Qudc tham gia hpp tac an ninh phi truyen thdng trong khu virc chau A - Thai Binh Ducmg^.
Ddi vdi khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong, Trang Qudc cho rang, mac dii trpng tam kinh te va chien luoc ciia the gidi tiep tuc chuydn sang khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Duong, nhung khu vuc nay viin la trpng tam cua cudc dp sue nude idn, mang lai tinh khd ludng cho an ninh khu vuc. Do do, Trang Qudc se tiep tuc tang cudng sue manh kinh te nham phuc vu chien luoc nude Idn, giir vai trd cam trich, lanh dao trong khu vuc. Trung Qudc se khdng chia se vdi bat cu nude nao ve vai trd nude Idn, lanh dao khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duang. Cac sang kien Trang Qudc dua ra Cling ngay cang nhieu han, cudi cung cung nham muc tieu lanh dao khu vuc va toan cau trong tuong lai. Trong dd dae biet cd sang kien "Vanh dai, con dudng" (BRI). Hien nay, nd da la chien luge tk idn, tSm thl ky ciia Trang Qudc, chii khdng cdn la sang kien nOa.
BRI ra ddi nam 2013, la mpt dai chien luge ket ndi ca ba luc dia A - Au - Phi bang ca dudng bd va dudng bien.
Cac muc tieu chiln luge BRI cila Trang Qudc la: i) md rdng khdng gian chien luge va tao ra mpt khu vue "san sau"
ciia Trung Qudc de kiem soat luc dia A - Au - Phi; ii) tao ddi trpng vdi chien lupc "tai can bang" cila My d chau A Thai Binh Duong; iii) chi phdi khu vuc
An Dp Duong va khu virc ndi lien Thai Binh Duong va An Dp Duong; iv) kiem soat dudng van tiii bien lien quan va he thdng cang bien Idiu vuc, chi phdi ngudn eung cap dau khi, tao lap cac can cii quan su tai khu vuc ma nhtrng con dudng nay di qua; v) tap mdi trudng kinh le - xa hdi cho viec "md rdng sire manh mem" cua Trang Qude; vi) xiiy dung vanh dai an ninh xung quanh Trung Qudc de ngan chan My va ddng minh tiep can tham nhap vao Idiu vuc ma Bac Kinh eoi la "san sau" ciia minh;
vii) dua vao hgp tac kinh te de thiic diiy quan he chinh tri, tao chat xilc tac de giai quyet cac tdn tai trong quan he eiia Trung Qudc vdi cac nude khu vuc, ngan chan sy "co cum" ciia cac qudc gia trong khu vuc cd tranh chap vdi Trang Qudc, ke ca van de tranh chap chu quyen bien dap; viii) thuc day hgp tac kinh te ra khu vyc; ix) tang cudng vai trd ban dap ciia kinh t& khu vuc xung quanh Trang Qudc; x) hau thuan cho Trang Qudc di ra th6 gidi; xi) thdng qua "5 thdng"
(thdng chinh sach; thdng dudng bd, bien; thdng thuang; thdng tien te va thdng long ngudi) di tiep can, tham nhap, kilm spat kinh tl khu vyc "lang giing md rdng", tien tdi nam quyen chii dao budn ban qudc te, quyen danh gia va quyin phan phdi tai nguyen qudc te; xii) giai quyit vdn de du thua nang luc san xuk, tim kilm thi trudng cho hang hda il dpng; xiii) tim kilm thi trudng dau tu, su dung hieu qua du trii ngoai hdi khdng id ciia Trung Qudc, tim kilm thi trudng cho
30 SO 02-2020 CHAU MY NGAY NAY dong nhan dan te, day manh tien trinh
quoc te hoa dong nhan dan te; xiv) ti6p can cac nguon tai nguyen, nang lugtig, nhat la dau khi; xv) tan dung moi truang xung quanh de tao dieu kien phat trien dong deu hon giua cac vung, mien trong nuac, dae biet la khu vuc bien cuang, mien Tay Trung Quoc .
Ben canh chien luge "Vanh dai, con duang" (BRI), Trung Quoc con xay dung chien luac "ngoai giao nuac lan", chien luge "ngoai giao Idng gieng", xay dung
"cong dong van menh nhan loai" (bao gom cong dong van menh Trung Quoc - ASEAN, cong dong van menh Lan
Thuang - Mekong...), ''cong dong van menh chdu A" (Nam 2014, Trung Quoc dua ra quan diem "An ninh chdu A mai"
nham tim kiem vai tro lanh dao cua Trung Quoc trong he thong an ninh khu vuc. Day la ngi dung dieu chinh tu duy an ninh chien luge cua lanh dao Trung Quoc, theo do, Trung Quoc neu chu truang "cong viec cua chdu A se do nhan ddn chdu A tu gidi quyet" , khac voi nhung lan tuyen bo truac day, rang
"Thdi Binh Ducmg Id dii rong de dung nap cd Trung Quoc vd My"^)... Ngoai ra, Trung Quoc con dua ra nhiJng sang kien a cac ITnh vuc nhu: i) thdnh lap hiep dinh Doi tdc toan dien RCEP (gom 10 nuac ASEAN ciing 6 nuac la Trung Quoc, An Do, Nhat Ban, Han Quoc, Australia, Newzealand; ii) de xudt xay dung khu vuc mgu dich tu do chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang gom 21 nuac thanh vien APEC; iii) thanh lap Ngdn hdng
Ddu tu phdt trien ca sa ha tdng chdu A (AIIB), va Quoc te hoa ddng nhan ddn te.
Nhu vay, co th6 th4y, Trung Qu6c da timg buac dua ra cac chiin luge ddi vai khu vuc chau A Thai Binh Ducmg, nham thuc hien muc tieu cu6i ciing ciia
"gidc mong Trung Qudc"; la se vuan len lanh dao the giai vao nam 2049.
2. Vi tri dia-chi'nh tri cua Viet Nam Thu nhdt, Viet Nam co ehung duong bien gioi dat lien, tren bien vai Trung Quoc . Trong ba nuac lang gieng co ehung duong bien gioi vai Viet Nam la Trung Quoc, Lao, Campuchia, thi Trung Quoc van la nuac gay ra cho Viet Nam rat nhieu thach thirc tir xa xua den nay.
Trung Quoc la nuac lang gieng duy nhat tirng tan cong xam luge, do hg Viet Nam rat nhieu lan trong Iich su. Trung Quoc luon la moi de dpa cho Viet Nam do hai nguyen nhan la su gan giii ve mat dia ly va su bat can xiing ve sue manh giGa hai nuac. Do Viet Nam la nuac thugc dia cu a khu vuc Dong Nam A, ma Dong Nam A la cua ngo duy nhat de Trung Quoc ma rpng anh huong, ehiem cir dat dai di xuong phia Nam.
Thie hai, tuy Viet Nam la mgt nuac nho a Dong Nam A, nhung phan lanh tho trai dai, gan nhu bao quanh mot canh ciia Bien Dong. Nhin vao ban do CO thl th4y, Viet Nam la nuac duy nhit a Dong Nam A c6 lanh tho vira nSm tren luc dia A Chau, iai vira giap vdi Biln Dong. Viet Nam cung la nuac kilm soat s6 lugng dao Ion nhat d khu vuc
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Quan dao Trudng Sa. Hon nira, quan cang Cam Ranh d Nha Trang ia mdt trong nhimg cang nuac sau ly tudng bac nhiit the gidi, rat dupe ua chuong bdi hai quan cac nude, do dieu kien thiiy van.
dia chat, rat thuan lpi, thiiy trieu trong vinh kha deu dan, tuang ddi dilng gid, day vinh biing phiing, chii yeu la cat phii sa kha chac chan... Ndi each khac, cang Cam Ranh la mpt eiin cii hai quan vdi vi tri phdng thil cue ky virng chiic, la be phdng ly tudng cho cac lyc lugng hai quan kiem spat Bien Ddng.
La qudc gia giau tai nguyen, cd dan sd tre Idn thu ba d Ddng Nam A, cd quan dpi thien chien bac nhat d chau A, cd vi tri dia ehien luge eye ky quan trpng, Viet Nam dupe xem nhu lyc lugng tran giu
"con dudng Nam tien ca tren bd, tren bien ciia Trang Qudc"', vi vay, Trung Qudc ludn eoi Viet Nam la lyc can ddi vdi giac mong ba chii d Bien Ddng.
3. Viet Nam trong chien lu'oc Chau A - Thai Binh Duang cua Trung Quoc Vdi vi the dia-chinh tri quan trgng d khu vuc, Viet Nam cd mpt vj tri dae biet trong chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Trung Qudc. K I tit cudc khiing hoang tai chinh chau A 1997-1998, Trung Qudc da nhanh chdng thuc thi chinh sach "tan edng quyen rii", loi keo eac qudc gia khu vyc Ddng Nam A trd thanh mdt khu vyc ed anh hudng trpng yeu ciia Trung Qude. Trang Qudc la nude dau tien thanh lap FTA va thiic diy sy md rdng cac ASEAN+1, FTAS, va cac md hinh
hgp tac ASEAN+N. Trong sang kiln
"Mpt true, hai canh" ma Trang Qudc dua ra vdi eac nude Ddng Nam A (mdt true la hanh lang kinh t l Nam Ninh - Singapore, hai canh la Hgp tac tiiu viing sdng Mekong md rdng GMS va Hop tac Vinh Bac Bp md rpng), thi Viet Nam deu tham gia ca ba hgp tac lien vung va phat trien co sd ha tang ket ndi lien khu vuc giira Trang Qudc va toan bp khu vyc Ddng Nam A. Viet Nam cung de xuiit y tudng xay dung sang kien "Hai hanh lang, mdt vanh dai" vap nhirng nam diiu the ky XXI^. Nhirng chuong trinh nay cho thay Viet Nam cd mgt vi tri cua ngo quan trpng trong chien lupc khu vyc ctia Trang Qudc, giiip Trang Qudc tien xudng phia Nam va md rdng anh hudng tren khu vyc Ddng Nam A.
Tuy nhien, trong thdi ky de xuat eac y tudng ket ndi hgp tac trudc day vdi Viet Nam va cac qude gia Ddng Nam A, Trang Qudc mdi ehi dang trong giai doan "giau ien", va tim kiem sy md rpng anh hudng tren khu vyc sat sudn lien quan true tiep den an ninh va phat trien cila Trang Qudc. Cdn hien nay. Tap Can Binh da xac dinh Trang Qudc dang tien vao thdi dai mdi va trd thanh trang tam vu dai chinh tri the gidi. Vdi the va luc mdi ciing tam nhin toan eau mdi ciia Trang Qudc, Viet Nam va khu vyc Ddng Nam A van dugc Trang Qudc xep vao vi tri quan trpng, trpng sy gianh giai anh hudng vdi chiln lupe An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang eiia My va mpt sd ddi tac Idn khac: An Dp, Nga, Nhat Ban.
s o 02-2020 CHAU MY NGAY NAY Khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong
luon dugc Trung Quoc de cao va quyet tam gianh giat su anh huong vdi My, nham khong che, gianh quyen lanh dao trong khu vuc nay. Chinh vi vay, muc tieu ma Trung Quoc muon dat dugc trong quan he vai Viet Nam va cac nude Dong Nam A la: i) tiep tuc duy tri. Cling c6 moi trudng khu vuc lang gieng xung quanh hoa binh, on dinh, tao thuan Igi cho Trung Quoc tap trung phat trien kinh te, dat dugc muc tieu chinh tri theo ba moc thdi gian 2020, 2035, 2049; ii) lam suy yeu mang ludi lien minh ciia My trong khu vuc, dong thdi ngan chan moi lien minh, lien ket nao cd kha nang hinh thanh mgt khoi chong lai Trung Quoc trong tuang lai;
iii) thiet lap vi tri quoc te virng chac cua Trung Qude, hinh thanh mgt trat tir kinh te chinh tri mdi do Trung Quoc chi phoi, thay cho trat tu cu do My va phuang Tay chi phoi; iv) chirng minh Trung Qudc dudi su lanh dao ciia Dang Cong san Trung Quoc nhu mgt mo hinh tieu bieu cho cac nude dang phat trien, thay thl cho mo hinh phat trien dan chii kieu My va Phuong Tay, hay thiet lap ca che
"dong thuan B5c Kinh" thay eho "Ddng thuan Washington".
De dat dugc muc tieu tren, Trung Quoc da su dung chien luge "Vanh dai, eon dudng" (BRI) nhu mgt cdng cu then chot de loi keo Viet Nam va cac nude Ddng Nam A vao quy dao kinh te chinh trj cua Trung Quoc, gia tang su phu thugc kinh te chinh tri vao Trung Qudc.
Trung Quoc da xac dinh nam ndi dung hgp tac chu chdt trong BRI, gdm co chinh sach khai thong, dudng bg, dudng bien lien thong, thuang mai thdng sudt, tien te luu thong va ngudi dan thong hieu. Vdi ngi dung dau tien la ket ndi chinh sach, Trung Qudc dang co gang loi keo Viet Nam va tat ca cac nude ASEAN deu cam ket tham gia va iing hp ddi vdi BRI bSng ca cay gay va cu ca rdt. Viet Nam va cac qudc gia ASEAN deu da ky Bien ban ghi nhd (MOU) vdi Trung Qudc cimg tham gia hpp tac thiic day BRI; Viet Nam va cac qudc gia ASEAN la nhimg nude diu tien tham gia Ngan hang dau tu ca sd ha tang chau A (AIIB), mpt dinh che tai chinh do Trung Qudc lap ra. Ngoai ra, Viet Nam va ASEAN cimg vdi Trung Qudc cdn trien khai nhieu ngi dung hgp tac ve tai chinh, tien te, ngan hang khac nira.
Trung Quoc cdn thiic day ngoai giao cdng ehung vdi Viet Nam va ASEAN, xiie tien xay dung cac Hgc vien Khdng tu, Trung tam van hda Viet - Trung, quang ba dien anh Trung Qudc nham gia tang "quyen luc mem" ciia Trung Qudc d Viet Nam va khu vuc. Ngi dung quan trgng chinh la ket ndi va phat trien ca sd ha tang lien khu vuc dang dugc Trung Qude tiep tuc trien khai giira Trung Qudc vdi Viet Nam va ASEAN tren cac khuon khd ma Trung Qudc da de xuat trudc dd.
Doi chieu vdi cac chuang trinh ket n5i trong BRI hien nay, cd the thay vj tri hien tai cua Viet Nam nhu sau: Viet Nam nSm ca tren hai nhanh con dudng ta lua
CHAU MY NGAY NAY S 6 02-2020 33 tren bd va tren bien, ddng thdi cGng cd
lien quan den ba tuyen dudng nam tren BR] ciia Trung Qude.
Vdi hai nhanh tren bp ("vanh dai kinh tl, con dudng ta lua", SREB) va tren bien ("con dudng ta lua hang hai thl ky XXI", MSR), BRI dugc phan thanh 5 tuyen chinh nham ket ndi ca chiiu A, chau Au va chau Phi, gdm ed (1) kit ndi Trang Qude tdi chau Au thdng qua Trang A va Lien bang Nga; (2) kit ndi Trang Qudc vdi Trung Ddng thdng qua Trung A; (3) hdi ty Trung Qudc va Ddng Nam A, Nam A va An Do Duong;
(4) ket ndi Tmng Qudc vdi chau Phi thdng qua Biln Ddng va An Dp Duong;
(5) ket ndi Trung Qudc vdi Nam Thai Binh Duong thdng qua Bien Ddng.
Trpng dd, SREB tap trung vao ba tuyen 1-2-3. Cdn MSR chii trpng vao hai tuyen 4-5 nham ket ndi cac cang duyen hai ciia Trang Qudc vdi cac cang d chiiu A, Au, Phi va chau Dai Duong. Dpc theo nam tuyen niiy, BRJ se tan dung cac tuyen giao thdng qude te, cung nhu cac thanh phd trpng diem d ven bien va cac cang then chdt, thiic day sy cdng tac, phdi hgp nham xay dung 6 hanh lang hpp tac kinh te qudc te .
Viet Nam cung true tiep thupc mdt trong sau hanh lang kinh te ciia BRI la Hanh lang kinh t l Trung Qudc - Ban dao Ddng Duong. Cd sau hanh lang kinh te kit ndi Trang Qudc vdi cac qudc gia dpc BRI gdm: 1) Trung Qudc - Mdng Cd - Nga; 2) Cau ndi dat lien A - Au mdi; 3) Trang Qudc - Tay A; 4) Trung Qudc -
Ban dao Ddng Duong; 5) Trang Quoc - Pakistan; 6) Bangladesh - Trang Quoc - An Dp - Myanmar (BCIM).
Tuy nhien, dii cd nhieu tuyen dudng chinh cua BRI, nhung Viet Nam lai khdng phai la mdt trpng diem ket ndi khu vyc va lien khu vyc. Viet Nam chi giii mdt vi the ket ndi md nhat ca trong tuyen dudng bien va dudng bg ket ndi tpan ban dao Ddng Duong vdi true Cdn Minh (Trung Qudc) - Singapore.
Neu xem xet vi tri eiia Viet Nam trong ket ndi Trung Qudc - ASEAN da dugc xiic tien trong niia cudi thap nien dau the ky XXI, cd the thay mdt vai trd quan trpng cua Viet Nam trong sang kien "Mdt true, hai canh" ma chinh quyen tinh Quang Tay, Trang Qudc de xuat vdi cac nude Ddng Nam A. Chien luge "Mdt true, hai canh" nay ed muc tieu nham gia tang anh hudng ciia Trang Qudc d Ddng Nam A, cdn dupe gpi la chien luge ba chO M dya tren ba hudng:
hgp tac kinh te tren bd (Mainland), hop tac kinh te tren bien (Maritime) va hgp tac kinh t l tiiu vung sdng Mekong.
Chiln lupc nay dya tren ba hudng ket ndi toan bd cac qude gia ASEAN the hien muc tieu ciia Trang Qudc nham md rdng khdng gian phat trien, loi keo va gan ket su phat trien ciia khu virc Ddng Nam A vao su phat trien ehung ciia Trang Qudc. Cac chuong trinh ket ndi khu vyc giiia Tmng Qudc va ASEAN cdn cho thiiy mdt vj tri ciia ngd ciia Viet Nam de Trang Qudc tien xudng phia Nam. Dp dd, khudn khd "hai hanh lang,
34 CHAU MY NGAY NAY^
mdt vanh dai" ma Viet Nam de xuat, thi Viet Nam cdn ddng thdi thudc ca ba true trong chien luge "Mpt true, hai eanh"
cua Trung Quoc vdi ca khu vuc.
Tuy nhien, sau khi Trung Quoc xay dimg chien luac "Vanh dai, con dtrong"
(BRI 2013) vai hai con dudng chinh tren bo, tren bien song song vdi ndm tuyen dudng vd sau hdnh lang kinh te tren ddt lien, thi ASEAN tit- mot vi tri trung tdm trong hap tdc khu vifc tra thdnh mot phdn nho trong chien luac kit noi lan cua Trung Quoc vai toan khu vuc chdu A vd the giai. Theo do, ASEAN se lien quan true tiep tai con duong tren bien vd hai hdnh lang nhanh BCIM vd hdnh lang kinh te Trung Quoc - Dong Ehecmg trong dai chien luac ciia Trung Quoc. Cling theo dai chien luac nay, thi vi tri ciia Viet Nam de Trung Quoc tien xuong phia Nam ciing se md nhat han.
Tren cac tuyen dudng nay, cac nude Ddng Nam A cd vi tri cot yeu vdi Trung Quoc se la Myanmar (thugc hanh lang BCIM, la mpt con dudng de Trung Quoc tir phia Tay Nam di xudng An Do Duang), Thai Lan (qua kenh dao du kien Kra Isthmus) va Indonesia (quoc gia bien dao Trung Qudc can di qua de xuong Nam Thai Binh Duong, va la quoc gia tam trung vdi kieh cd dan sd Idn nhat, va dinh hudng trung lap trong ASEAN). Viet Nam cung the hien mpt hinh anh md nhat trong cac du an tieu bieu cua Trung Qudc, Viet Nam khong cd mat trong sd 8 cang chii chdt nam tren BRI. Va trong sd cac qudc gia cd
nii ro an ninh chinh tri, riii ro tai chinh, nii ro hieu qua chinh phu, nii ro vT md, nii ro phap ly va phap luat, riii ro thi trudng lao ddng, nil ro co sd ha tang khi tham gia BRI, thi Viet Nam chi ehiu nii ro hieu qua chinh phu va rui ro thi trudng lao dpng khdng thudc nhdm cac nude ehiu nii ro cao'**
Ve vi tri cua Viet Nam trong chinh sach ddi ngoai lang gieng ciia Trung Qudc, trong "Cuang yeu chien luge an ninh qude gia" dugc Bp Chinh tri Dang Cpng san Trung Qudc thdng qua ngay 23/01/2015, Trung Qudc eoi Nhat Ban, My la ddi thii thach thirc Trung Quoc.
Cdn eac nude nhd trong ASEAN, nhu Viet Nam, Philippines tuy khdng dugc eoi la ddi thu, nhung cd nguy ea hgp tac vdi cac nude khac chdng lai Trung Qudc. Vi the, Trung Qudc se tiep tuc dua ra cac yeu sach chii quyen cung ran han, Trung Qudc van co muc tieu giix In dinh quan he Viet - Trung de khong d&y Viet Nam ve vong tay ciia My. Va Trung Qudc cd lap Philippines khdng de Viet Nam iing hd hay hgp tac vdi Philippines thanh khoi My - Nhat - Philippines - Viet Nam eiing chdng Trung Qudc"
Hai hpc gia Xue Li va Zheng Yuwen (2016), xep Viet Nam trong nhom can de chimg, can trpng va kiem che, chi thiic day hgp tac theo ITnh vuc cd mang lai Igi ich cho Trung Quoc. Viet Nam chua dugc liet ke vao cac nude ed muc dp dung do cao vdi Trung Quoc nhu Nhat Ban, An Do; cung khdng phai la cac nude ed Igi ich Idn nhu Indonesia,
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 35 Kazakhstan; ma dugc xep ngang vdi
Australia vira ed Igi ich dang ke, nhung ciing can giii thai dp can trpng'^.
Nhirng trieh dan tren cho thay, chinh sach chii dao ciia Trang Qudc vdi Viet Nam se vira la can bang vira can dy, vira kiem che, vira Idi keo. Muc tieu trong quan he vdi Viet Nam nham khdng de Viet Nam cd the manh len, thoat khdi su chi phdi ciia Trang Qudc, nhung ciing khdng de Viet Nam qua bat man, tim den eac lien ket chdng lai Trang Qudc.
Nhin ehung, chinh sach co ban cua Trang Qudc vdi Viet Nam cd the di theo cac hudng sau:
Thir nhdt, hda diu vdi Viet Nam, de tranh quan he cang thiing xau them, gia tang cac hoat dpng trap ddi ngpai giao ca thupng dinh va cac cap.
Thii hai, tang cudng hgp tac tren mpi phuong dien, dae biet la kinh te, giao thuong budn ban nham diing loi ich kinh te dua Viet Nam vao quy dao ciia Tmng Qudc, it nhat dam bao Viet Nam giir the trang lap giira Trang Qudc va My.
Thu ba, gay sue ep cho ASEAN, chia re khdi, thdng qua cac thanh vien nhd de ehiu tac ddng tir Trang Qudc de can trd lap trudng ddi lap vdi lpi ich Tmng Qudc, va ngan chan sy hinh thanh cda mdt "khdi chdng Trang Qudc"
4. Thay cho loi ket
- Chiln luge toan ciiu, khu vyc ciia Trung Qudc la trd thanh qudc gia himg manh, lanh dao the gidi vao giiia the ky XXI. Vai trd ciia Viet Nam trong
chien lupc loan cau, khu vuc ciia Trang Qudc la rat rd rang, tuy khdng qua Idn, nhung tac ddng manh me ddi vdi Viet Nam, ma cac thach thirc cdn idn hon nhirng eg hdi, dae biet thach thirc ve an nmh chii quyen qudc gia ve bien dao, thach thirc ve su phu thudc ve kinh te, tap ra su phu thudc ve chinh tri. Trong giai doan hien nay, Viet Nam can dieu chinh, xac dinh ro rang each thiic Ung phd vdi chien luge toan cau, khu vyc cua Trung Qudc. Dd la thich nghi vdi sy trdi day, Idn manh cua Trang Qudc, xac dinh ro rang muc tieu cila Viet Nam la phai dam bao an ninh qudc gia, khdng ngimg phat trien, tao the va lyc da dang hda, da phuong hda quan he vdi cac nude tren the gidi. giii vtmg mdi trudng hda binh de phat trien. khdn kheo dat Igi ich qudc gia len tren het trong ling xii vdi Trang Qudc'''
- D I tra Idi cau hdi: "Vi tri cila Viet Nam trong chinh sach ddi ngoai cua Trang Qudc hien nay la gi?" "Trang Qudc da djnh vi Viet Nam la ddi tac hay ddi thd?", va "Tam quan trpng cua Viet Nam ddi vdi Trang Qudc ra sao?"
Trade het, chimg ta deu cd the thdng tink tra Idi rang: Hien nay va trong tuang lai Trang Quoc vin ludn eoi Viet Nam la
"con bai bap benh" frong khu vuc, phai ehiu anh hudng Idn ciia Trang Qudc trong cudc choi tren ban cd chau A - Thai Binh Duong. Trong sd 14 nude lang gieng cd ehung dudng bien gidi vdi Trung Qudc, Viet Nam do ed vi tri dia chien luge quan trpng, chan dudng tien xudng
36 SO 02-2020 CHAU MY NGAY N A ^ phuang nam ciia Trung Quoc (ca dudng
bp va dudng bien), nhung do Viet Nam la quoc gia kien cudng, khdng ehiu su khuat phuc, de nen, ap bue ciia Trung Quoc, vi vay ca hai ben hien nay dang thieu niem tin chien luge vao nhau.
Trung Quoc tim mgi each thdng qua chien luge "vanh dai, con dudng" de md tuyen dudng bd tir Trung Quoc xudng Myanmar, qua Lao, sang Thai Lan bang viec khai thdng kenh dao tren bien, de tien xuong phucmg nam nham tranh tuyen dudng bd di qua Viet Nam. Va tren tuyen dudng bien, Trung Qude thong qua ly luan ve dudng ludi bd do Trung Qude tu ve ra, eoi Viet Nam la doi thii canh tranh quyet liet, da thuc hien ehiem ddng 7 dao da thudc ehu quyen va quyen chii quyen eua Viet Nam, ngang nhien tuyen bd bai Tu Chinh thudc quyen ehii quyen cua Viet Nam la ciia Trung Qudc, bat chap nhtrng quy dinh cua luat phap quoc te (Cdng udc qudc te ve Luat bien nam 1982 cua Lien Hgp Qudc) va nhung du luan phe phan cua cac nude uu chuong hda binh trong khu vuc va tren the gidi. Ro rang Trung Qude da eoi Viet Nam la ddi thu eanh tranh quyet liet ve chu quyen bien dao d Bien Ddng. Van de tranh chap chu quyen d Bien Dong se la linh vuc cd nguy ca tiem tang gay ra nhimg canh tranh, cd kha nang xay ra nhung xung dot giiia hai nude Viet Trung trong tuong lai. Trung Qudc cd thuc sir mong mudn Viet Nam ddc lap, tu chu, manh len hay khdng? Chiing tdi cho rang.
Trung Qudc khdng mudn, mong muon ciia Trung Quoc la Viet Nam khdng manh len, ludn ehiu anh hudng eua Trung Qudc trong khu vuc.
Ve kinh te, Trung Qudc mong mudn Viet Nam ludn phu thugc vao nln kinh te ciia Trung Qudc, luon nhap sieu, phu thudc vao cdng nghiep hd trg cua hg.
Nhirng san pham ndng nghiep: rau qua, thiiy hai san eua Viet Nam muon xuat khau, phai phu thude Idn vao thi trudng Trung Qudc, Viet Nam se ludn bi chen ep trong thdng quan hang hda tuai song qua eac cira khau va bien gidi hai nude.
Ro rang, Viet Nam vira la ddi tac, vira la ddi thu cua Trung Qudc. Trong each hanh xir giira hai ben, Trung Qudc noi rat hay, rat diing ve mat ngii: nghia nhung tren thyc te thi ngugc lai. Hg noi mot dang, lam mpt neo. Dieu do da lam xoi mdn Idng tin giiia nhan dan va chinh dang hai nude. Cd the ndi rang Viet Nam hien nay cd tam quan trgng trong chinh sach ddi ngoai, trong dudng loi eiia Trung Qudc d ca hai nghia: quan trgng ve vi tri dia chien luge, nhung rat e ngai cho Trung Qudc ve tinh than quat cudng chdng sire ep xam pham chu quyen bien dao cua Viet Nam. Nen Trung Qudc eoi Viet Nam vira la ddi tac, vira la ddi thu.
Cdn Viet Nam ludn ludn thyc hien diing phuang cham cua Bac Hd: "Di bat bien, ling van bien"; vira hgp tac, vira dau tranh; muon lam ban vdi tat ca cac nude tren thl gidi tren tinh than tdn trgng ddc lap, chil quyin, toan ven lanh tho, thupng ton phap luat, hgp tac ciing thang •
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 37
Chu thich:
1. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_66 280 5/tl429771.shtml
2. https://idsa.in/issuebrief/china-asia-pacific-se curity-cooperation_aksingh_190117 3. http://css.hcmussh.edu.vn/7ArticleId-16d8fc
56-4445-46b7-8bld-dab9ca7
4. http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/diem-sach-bao/
7135-tac-dong-an-ninh-cua-con-duong-to-lu a-tren-bien-goc-nhin-cua-tu-chau-au 5. https://tuoitre.vn/ong-tap-nhac-lai-thai-binh-
duong-du-rong-cho-trung-quoc-va-my-2017 1109155137803.htm
6. Trung Quoc co dudng bien gidi vdi 14 nude 7. http://nghiencuuquocte.org/2015/03/05/viet-
nam -hoa-giai - loi-nguyen-dia- ly/
8. http://entemen3.vn/viet-nam-voi-sang-kien-v anh-dai-va-con-dduong-111029.html 9. http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/busine
ss-new/article/the-Belt-and-Road-Initiative/
The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative/obor/en/1/lx OA36B7.htm
lO.Pencea, Sarmiza (2017) "A lot in to the complexity of the one Belt, one Road"
11 .http://www.chinatimes.eom/cn/newpapers/2 0150125000741-260309.
12.Li, Xue and Zheng, Yuwen (30/3/2016), "A Blueprint for China's Neighborhood Diplomacy". The Diplomat. https://thediplo mat.com/2016/03/a-blueprint-for-chinas-nei ghborhood-dipiomacy/
13.Xem them KiSu Tinh (22/6/2015) "Viet Nam trong chinh sach ciia Trung Quoc", tam nhin tri thiic va phat trien, tren http://
tamnhin.net/viet-nam-trong-chinh-sach-cua- Trung-Quoc-4/820.html
t4.Nguyen Quang Thuan "Chien luoc toan cau cua Trung Quoc trong boi canh mai", de tai cap Bo Vien Han lam KHXH Viet Nam, nam 2018.
