KINH T E - X A H O I
T
rong Thdng bao Hdi nghi 13 ciia Ban chap hanh trung uong Dang khda X (7- 14/10/2010), chiing tdi rat quan tam den doan phan tich ve (1) nhung thanh tuu dat dugc chua tuong xiing vdi tiem nang (2) chit lugng tang trudng, hieu qua cung nhu sue canh tranh ciia nen kinh te cdn thap (3) kinh te phat trie'n chua bSn vung, chua cd su can ddi vl md (4) viec sii dung ddng von chua that su hieu qua; bdi chi ngan sach cdn ldn; nhap sieu cao (5) ket ciu ha tang thidu ddng bd, chua dap iing dugc yeu ciu phat trie'n kinh td va (6) viec quan ly dat dai, tai nguyen khoang san chua tdt, mdi trudng dang bi d nhiem nghiem trgng.Nhan dinh neu fren tuy chinh xac nhung chua diy dli vi chua di sau phan tich danh gia cu the cac nguyen nhan. 6 nudc ngoai, ngudi ta da chiing minh mdt each khoa hgc va thuc t6 rang mdt du an tdt phai dii 4 M: Man power (con ngudi). Money (tien bac), Material (co sd vat chit) va Management (quan ly) mdd cd the tien hanh thanh cdng duoc.
Lien he thuc te den du an chdng ngap iing thanh
To Van TrUdng
phd Hd Chi Minh trong nhieu nam qua da tieu ton khdng biet bao nhieu tien bac, cdng siic, thdi gian nhung hieu qua cdn rat han che. Ung ngap d TP.HCM thudng xuyen ke ca thdd gian khdng mua, khdng lu.
Dien tich ngap nudc thudng xuyen vao Idioang 265 km2 va 35,2% sd dan ciia thanh phd bi anh hudng.
Thdi gian va dp sau ngap: cac diem ngap do mua phu thudc vao tran mua vdi thdd gian ngap tir 1 -3 tieng, do sau ngap thudng nhd hon 0,5m cd viing len tdi 0,8m.
Cac diem ngap do mua phu thudc vao tran mua vdi thdd gian ngap tii 1-3 tieng, do sau ngap thudng nhd hon 0,5m cd vung len tdi 0,8m. Cac diem ngap trieu se bi ngap frong thdd gian trieu cudng duy tri khoang tii 1-5 tieng, do sau ngap thudng nhd hon Im cd vimg len tdi 1,5m.
Bao "Sai gdn tiep thi" ngay 13 thang 10 nam 2010 dang bai "Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh chdng ngap:
thieunhac trudng", bao TudiTre ngay 15thang lOnam 2010 trong muc Su kien va Du luan cd bai "Chdng ngap theo luu vuc", chiing tdi da phan tich ve nhiing bat cap va kien nghi cac giai phap cap bach va lau
thang 11 - 2010 1 Khoa hoc & To qudc 2 9
IKINHTE-XAHOI
dai. Trong pham vi bai viet nay, tap trung de cap den cdng tac quan ly lien quan den gdc do phan tich kinh te ciia du an. Thanh pho da nhin thay vai trd ciia "nhac trudng", M con ngudi cho nen da thanh lap Trung tam chdng ngap sat nhap mdt sd ban ciia Sd ndng nghiep, Sd giao thdng vao Trung tam chdng ngap. Tuy nhien, trong thuc te hien nay, van cdn nhieu du an, cdng trinh lien quan chong ngap thudc Sd Ndng nghiep. Ban quan ly du an dai Id Ddng Tay, Ban Quan ly du an Nhieu Ldc-Thi Nghe, mdt sd Ban quan ly du an thudc So Tai nguyen & Mdi trudng, Ban quan ly xay dung thiiy lgi 9 thudc Bd Ndng nghiep & Phat trien ndng thdn w . . . Do dd, neu ai mudn tim hieu can ke, ciing rat khd tiep can day dii cac thdng tin, sd lieu de danh gia mdt each bai ban, chi tiet ve sd lugng cac du an, tien do thuc Men, va ngudn kinh phi ciia tdng cac du an.
Chi ndi rieng viec thuc hien Quyet dinh 1547/TTg ngay 28 thang 10 nam 2008 ve Quy hoach chdng ngap TP.HCM da dugc Thii tudng phe duyet bao gdm 1 tuyen de bao ven sdng Sai Gdn, qua Nha Be, qua Vam Cd vdi 12 cdng ldn tren de va 1 he thdng cdng nhd. Theo Quydt dinh phe duyet, nam 2012 se hoan thanh vdi td'ng sd vdn khoang 10.300 ty.
Nhung hien nay, chua duan nao frong quy hoach nay dugc duyet vi cac du an cd tinh tien de nhu tinh toan thiiy van, thiiy luc mdi duyet vao thang 6 nam nay, du an tinh toan kinh te chien lugc, mdi trudng chien lugc,
quy hoach chi tiet de bao va he thong cdng dudi de van cdn bd ngd!? Trong 12 cong ngan tideu thi 3 du an cdng ldn nhu Muong Chuoi, Kenh Ld, va Thii Bd do Bd Ndng nghiep & PTNT lam chii diu tu da trie'n Idiai hon 1 nam nay van chua dugc phe duyet.
Rieng cdng Muong Chuoi chua thong nhit ve tuyen vdi y kien ciia dia phuong. Trung tam chdng ngap trie'n khai lap du an dugc 4/6 cdng van chua tham dinh dugc du an . Trong he thong cdng tiinh chong ngap, tinh Long An lam chii dau tu 3 du an, ciing chua di khao sat lap du an. Rieng doi vdi du an cong Kinh Ld theo quy hoach dugc duyet du kidn each bd sdng Idioang 2 km va khdng cd au thuyen. Khi lap du an de md rdng dien tich phuc vu, tu vin chgn vi tri cdng
each bd sdng Nha Be khoang 500m. Do cd su thay dd'i vi tri, lugng tau be qua lai khac di, can nghien Cliu ve viec bd' sung au thuyen rdng B= 10m de khdng anh hudng nhieu den giao thdng. Chi rieng vdn cdng Kinh Ld du kien la 300 ty, nay dugc chinh siia ve khau dien cdng cd B= 30mx3, cao trinh day
= -6,00, tinh toan cu the vdi gia hien nay va cd bd sung au thuyen tang len 1.068 ty ddng. Cd the ndi ididng ngoa, cho den nay, tat ca chi mdd bat diu, the ma theo mdt sd du an tu van da tinh toan lai thi td'ng miic dau tu tang len tii 3-4 lin. Nghia la con so du kien 10.300 ty du tni trong quy hoach chdng ngap cho TP.HCM da dugc Thii tudng phe duyet se cdn tang len rat nhieu!
Khi phan tich kinh te du an chong ngap cho TPHCM,
3 0 Khoa hpc & To qudc thang 11-2010
M money va M material, dau tien la phai xac dinh mat bang gia va don vi tien te de phan tich. Chi phi kinh te la cac chi phi phai bd ra dugc tinh theo gia kinh te. Chi phi nay gdm cac chi phi dau tu vat chat cho du an, quan ly van hanh, duy tu hang nam va cac chi phi co hgi khac nhu: mat dat va cac tac ddng ngugc khac. Gia tri lgi ich kinh te ciia du an bang gia tri tinh thiet hai ve tai san trong cac ITnh vuc kinh te do ngap gay ra. Nhd cd du an, cac thiet hai ve tai san trong cac linh vuc kinh te hang nam do lu lut dugc giam thie'u. Day chinh la lgi ich chinh yeu ciia du an. Ben canh muc giam thiet hai do ngap lut thi muc tieu dang chii y nua la nang cao chat lugng cudc sdng cho ngudd dan trong vimg du an. Danh gia cac lgi ich hoac chi phi thdng qua cac hang muc ddng tien, tu van thudng sii dung phuang phap "tuong lai Cd" va "tuong lai Khdng Cd" du an. Kich ban "tuong lai Cd" du an xem xet chuang trinh diu tu da dd xuit va k§ hoach chong ngap. Kich ban "tirong lai Khdng cd" du an xem nhu khdng diu tir du an chong ngap, viec ngap van tiep dien. Viec phan tich kinh td cho
KINH T E - X A HOI I du an nham xac dinh tinh hieu qua kinh te cho cho toan bd du an. Hien nay, cac tu van, van so sanh cac chi tieu nhu gia fri thu nhap rdng (NPV), ty sd Igi nhuan B/C, phan tich nii ro, do nhay de danh gia du an.
Phan tich do nhay de xac dinh nhung anh hudng ciia su thay dd'i ciia mdt hay nhieu tham sd dau vao den ket qua ciia du an. Ket qua ciia md hinh phan tich do nhay se cung cap them thdng tin cd lien quan cho ngudd ra quyet dinh de lua chgn phuong an hoac yeu cau phai to' chiic nghien ciiu them ve mdt tham sd dau vao nao dd. Bai toan kinh te ddi vdi cac cdng trinh thiiy lgi, dac biet giai quyet viec chdng ngap cho dd thi chac cdn phai dugc tiep tuc nghien ciiu de hoan thien ve phuang phap luan va each tiep can cho phii hgp vdi dieu kien bien ddi khi hau, nudc bie'n dang va tdc do dd thi hda. Phan tich dau vao, dau ra, ket hgp sii dung "CGE modeling" de xem tai sao phai cd du an nay? Sau khi cd du an di sau vao cac the che kinh te (hd gia dinh, nha nudc, doanh nghiep) dugc mat cai gi? Ngudn tien tii dau?
Mudn du an chdng ngap TPHCM dugc coi la du an tdt phai ra soat danh gia lai mdt each toan dien cac van de va giai phap khic phuc theo tieu chuan 4 M nhu tieu de bai viet nay tir con ngudi, co sd vat chat, kinh phi va cung each quan ly. Van de ngap lut khu vuc TP.HCM la bai toan he thong phai giai quyet tdng hgp, cac yeu td mua, lii, trieu, ciing vdi he thdng kenh muong, cdng phai tieu dugc nudc va he thdng de bao khdng de nudc tran vao phai dugc lam ddng bd. Ddng thdi phai cd phuong an bd tri may bom cho cac luu vuc cue bd, nai ma du kien xay dung he thdng cdng trinh thiiy lgi khdng dap ling dugc yeu cau tieu, nhat la vao thdd doan xay ra mua cimg liic vdi trieu cudng.
De tranh biic xiic frong cdng luan va ciing la yeu cau ciia thuc te, viec can nhat la phai quan ly tdt du an, M mamagement, de day nhanh tien do chuan bi dau tu va thuc hien tdt cac du an chdng ngap TP.HCM mdt each dongbd dudd suchi huy thdng nhat ciia "nhac trudng". Thdng thudng quan ly du an hien nay van la "quan ly cdng viec xay dung" ma quen di viec "quan ly qua trinh xay dung". Mudn quan ly dugc qua trinh ddi hdi can bd phai am tudng chuyen mdn hieu biet sau sic ve du an. Ngoai ra, cung can phai tim giai phap phan lii hd Dau Tieng cho sdng Sai Gdn de khi Diu Tidng xa lu ldn khdng anh hudng true tiep den khu vuc ven sdng.^
thang 11-2010 Khoa hoc & To quoc 3 1
