I
chi Khoa hpc DHQGHN, Cac Khoa hoc Trai dat va Mfii trudng, Tlip 29, S6'2 (2013) 1-10vHe thdng h§ trg ra quyet dinh quan ly tong hop tai nguyen nuoc: Thii nghiem phan tich quan ly dap Dakmi 4
Dang Thi Ba'-', Pham Thi Minh Hanh^
'Tnrdng Dgi hgc Cdng Nghe. Dgi hgc Quoc gia Ha Ngi, 144 Xudn Thuy, Cdu Gidy, Hd Ndi, Viit Nam Vien Ca hgc, Viin Hdn ldm Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghi Viet Nam,
264 Ddi Cdn. Ba Dinh, Hd Ndi. Viet Nam Nhan ngky 28 thang 02 nam 2013
Chinh sira ng^y 1S thdng 4 nSm 2013; chap nhan dang ngay 20 thang 6 nam 2013
Tfim tSt: Quan 1^ tfing hi?p tM nguy£n nudc phuc vu phSt trien ben vDng dang \k nhu clu thuc te.
Tuy nhien day Ik cong viec phiic tap, da linh virc, lien quan dSn nhieu dfii tugng vi vgy rfit cin co mpt cdng cu hd trg. BM bio n^y trinh b^y torn tit cdch tiep can xSy dimg chirong trinh hfi trg ra quyet djnh quan ly tfing hgp t&i nguyen nudc (HTRQD) quy mo luu vuc hiSn dang dugc nghign cuu v^ ung d^ng tr&n the gioi. Trfin ca so dfi. mgt chuang trinh HTRQD dugc dfing gfii dudi dang phan mem mdy tfnh vdi giao di§n tifeng Viet d3 dugc xSy dirng. D i minh hga cho phuang phap va chuong trinh, mgt hki todn thii nghidm cho quan 1;^ xay dung dap Dakmi 4 da dugc thiic hifn. Cac phuong &n vk tiSu chf ddnh gid dua trfin quy hoach phdt trien kinh ti-xa hgi ciia TP. Da Ning va Quy hogch Thiiy dien liru v\rc sfing Vu Gia-Thu Bfin. tinh Quang Nam. Dakmi 4 Ik mgt cfing tnnh thuy dien ldn trfin he thfing song Vu Gia-Thu Bfin, c6 tim anh hudng den doi sfing v^ mfii tnrdng cr liru virc song. VI vay rit can thiet cfi m$t nghien ciiu s3u hon cho cfing trinh thuy dien n&y nhdm phyc VI) quan ly iM nguyen nudc trfin luu vuc song.
Tir idioa: Ho trg ra quyfit dinh, phan tfch da Ueu chi. quan ly tfing hgp tM nguyen nuo^c.
1. D 3 t v^n d^ n u d c . Tuy nhien ket qua dat dugrc cdn il, van tiem an nhieu m i u thuan, nguy c a gay xung dot N u d c la tai nguyen vd ciing q u j g i i nhung trong khai thac, su d\ing iM nguygn nudc giiia khdng phai v6 tan. Moi quylt dinh lien quan cac ddi tugng sir dung.
den sii dung tSi nguyen nudc deu cd anh hudng - - »- i, i,^ i, J - *_- .u* A.^ _ - . - i.- . t X Tnroc t m h hinh do, tren the gioi, mpt so he r d n e rai v i sau sIlc den mpi mSt ciia cude song ,. ^ , » , * , * • . . * - * u -. . •;
^ ° J . , V s thong ho trg ra quyel dinh da dupc phat tnen, xa hdi. Nhieu cd gSng trong pham vi vimg, , ., : . . . _ , . ; , i , - . *• u i.
. ^ 6 6 6 f . 6. CO the thoa man mpt so nhu cau nhat dmh cho qudc eia, chau luc va the gidi da diroc thuc hien - • - . * . . . . . , . - . .
^ . ^ ' = . V y V qygj^ jy (Qjjg [jgp jg, nguycH nuoc rdiu c i c he n h a m sur dung hop IJ va ben vflng t ^ nguySn . u - » - ' •(..*• u i •- -* i - iV
• ^ -^ ^ 6 & J thong trp giup ra quyet dinh kiem soat lu; Ung phd sir c6 tran hda chat; Phan phdi niidc; Quan
• Tac g.a lien h^. DT: 84-4-37549667 ' ^ "^^^^ ^ ^ ^ S ""^'^ [1,3,4,5,6,8,9,14]. Viet Nam Email; [email protected]
•y D.T. Ba. P.TM. Hmh, Tap chi Khoa hgc DHQGHN, Cdc Khoa hgc Trdi ddt vd Moi truimg. Tap 29. So 2 aOU) 1-10
da ling dung mpt sd he llidng ho iFp ra quyet dinh neu tren. Tuy nhien, cac iing dung mdi chi dimg Iai d muc cdng cu ag giiip quan Iy d mdt khia canh nao dd trong khai thac va sii dung ma chua cd b? thdng nio de cap den van de quan ly tdng hop va phat trien ben ^ling tai nguyen nudc. Nudc ta dang trong giai doan phat trien nhanh, nbu cau khai thac sii dung tai nguyen nirdc rat Idn vdi nhieu mye dich, ddi khi ddi lap nhau. Vl vay. nghien ctiu iing dung va phat trien phuang phap tuan va cdng cu cho quan ly tdng hpp tai nguyen nudc dip ung phat trien ben vung cd y nghia rat quan trong.
Quy hoach phat irien thiiy dien bac thang cho cac con sdng trong lim vuc Vu Gia-Thu Bdn (dupc Bp Cdng ThuOTig phe duyet lai Quyit djnh sd 875/QE)-KHDT ngiy 02/5/2003) trudc het nhim {riiit trien thuy dien tai til ca doan sdng cd tlii phit dien. Tuy nhien nghien ciru quy hopch phin nhieu cdn han chi, dan din mpt sd di^ in trien khai khdng hieu qua, lam anh hudng nSng ne den ddi song, san xuit ciia ngudi dan. Nghien ciiu nay trinh bay viec phit triin chuong trinh HTRCJD \a ihu nghiem phan lich bai todn quan If xay dung dap Dakmi 4, mpt trong 8 du ^ thuy dien ldn tren sdng Vu Gia-Thu Bdn [2].
2. jDoi tirpTig vi phinmg pbip ng;hien ciJu 2.1. Hi thdng hd trg ra quyet dinh qudn ly tdng hgp tdi nguyin nirac
He thdng HTRQD li mpt he lich hpp, tuong tic vdi may u'nh gdm cac cong cu phan U'ch cd kha ning quin IJr thdng tin, dupc thiet ki di hd trp ngudi ra quyel djnh trong viec giai quyit cac vin de lien quan din quan 1;^ ngudn nudc mang tt'nh tdng hpp. Wiuong phap luan xay d\rag chucmg trinh HTR()D da duac phat triin bdi hiep hpi 9 ca quan nghien cuu vi quan ly
nudc tai Chau Au, diing diu la Quy nghien cihi phat trien bin v&ng va quan \f loan ciu (FEEM), trong no luc tim ki8m each tiip can de lua chpn giii phap va ra quyet dinh quin ly tai nguyen nudc mdi cich tdng hpp, theo khuon khd hiep dinh khung ve nudc (WFD), cd su tham gia cua cpng ddng [7]. Cic budc frfian tich hd trp ra quyet djnh quan ly tai nguyen nudc trinh bay trong hinh 1.
2.1.1. Tim hiiu bii toan
Qui liinh ho trp ra quyet dinh bit dau vdi viec tim hiiu bdi todn, muc dich la xac djnh cac van de can giii quj'et, cac tlwng tin cin duoc thu thap, cac giai phip cd the va cac tieu chi danh gia giai phap. Cdng cy de thuc hien la md hinh nhan thiic vin de DPSIR (Ddng lirc-Ap Iirc-Hi6n trang-Tic dpng-Dip ting) (hinh 2). Su dyng md hinh niy cho phep kel hop giua mong mudn quin IJ, ket qua tham vin cac ben hen quan, J kien chuygn gia cung nhu cdng ddng.
Kel thdc qui trinh tim hieu bdi todn se xac djnh dupc cic giai phip va cic tieu chi danh gia giai pbap phuc vy cho phan tfch hd tra ra quyit dinh quan ly tdng hpp tii nguyen mrdc. Viec phan tfch, lira chpn giai phip tdi tm se dupc thuc hien d budc sau sii dung cdng cu phan tfch da tieu chi (Mully Criteria Analysis - MCA).
2.1.2. Phan tfch thiii ki
Budc tiep theo ciJa 77m hiiu bdi todn la Phdn tich thiet ki, san phim ciia budc nay lam ca sd cho viec ra quyit dinh quan IJ. Cdng cu sii dyng trong Phdn tich thiit ki la Riin tfch da tieu chl (MCA), bao gdm mpt bd cic phuong phip danh gia trong do cd viec xic dinh mtic dg uu tien tiidng qua cic trpng so. Cac budc co bin trong phan u'ch da tieu chi gdm:
a) Xac djnh ma trdn phdn tich va ma trdn ddnh gid
Ma trgn phdn tich (Analysis Matrix) - X„„ la ma ttan gdm n cpt tuong iing vdi n giai phap va m
D.r. Ba. P.TM. Hanh I Tap chi Khoa hgc DHQGHN. Cdc Khoa hpc Trdi ddt va M6i inrimg. Tap 29, So 2 (2013) 1-10 3
hang tuang ung vdi m tieu chi. Cac gii hi ciia ma trgn ph&n tich chfnh la kit qui danh gii cac giai phip dira vio cac lieu chi da chpn. Ma trdn phdn tich chiia cic kit qua d&ih gia trong cic hang vdi nhflng don vi va khoang ^ a trj khdng ddng nhit Cic gia tri ciia ma trdn phdn tich duac dua ve cimg mpt thang gii tri trong khoang chuin [0,1]
thdng qua cac ham gji tri (Value Function), kit qua thu dupc ma trgn ddnh gid - U™.
b) Trpng sd tru tien ciia cac lieu chi Tuy vao mong mudn ciia cac bin liSn quan, chinh sich uu tiSn ttong ph^t trien ciing nhu vai trd cua cac tieu chi danh gii ma cac tieu chi cd muc dp quan trpng khac nhau va dupc the hien bing cac trong sd. Cac phuong phap xac dinh ttpng sd cd the sir dung gdm: 1) Phuang phip xep hang vi 2) Phuong phip so sanh timg c|p.
Phan tich mang liroi cac ben lien quan
[Thamkhao cua ngu'oi ra quyet d | i h
Phan tich van de
Danh gia lai qua ttinh
Xac dinh cac giai phap
j M a l r a n phon tich, J^K I
I M a t r a n danh gia t / _ I
I Q u y t a c r a q m e t f l i n t i
I :^-?l—. 1
I Phan t i d i db nhay a quyef d n h l h e o
nhdm I Quyet d n h cuoi cClna I
Hinh 1. Cdc budc phin tfch ho trg ra quyet djnh quan IJtM nguyfin nudc.
Giai phap
Nguyen nhin
Hinh 2. Mfi hinh nhan thiic cho phan U'ch ho trg ra quyit dinh QLTHTN nudc.
4 D.T. Ba. P.TM. Hgnh I Tap chi Khoa hgc DHQGHN, Cdc Khoa hgc Trdi ddi vd Moi truimg Tap 29. So 2 (2013) 1-10
Phuang phdp xip hang sii dung thii bac Iheo tieu chuan quan tam [4]. Khi thii hang md la sy quan ttpng cda tieu chuan, thong tin md ta chung (thii hang r,-) dupc sii dung de U'nh cic ttpng sd.
• - - ( " - ^ + 1 ) "
Kn-^i+i)"
(1)
Trong dd:
- n la sd lieu chi de danh gii phuang an;
- r, la thii hang cda tieu chi;
- p li he sd md li su phSn bd cac trpng sd, cd die dupc udc lupng bdi ngudi ra quyet dinh. Cho p = 0 tuong ling vdi cac trong sd can bing. Khi p tang, sy phan bd trpng sd ird nen ddc ban.
Phuang phdp so sdnh timg cap cdn gpi la quy trinh phan tfch thii bic, diing de xay dyng ma ttan ti le [10]. Tir ma tran ty le, vecto rieng ling vdi gii tri ri€ng ldn nhat la vecto trpng sd.
Cac budc tt'nh toin md ta nhu sau:
- Xiy dung ma Iran vudng A la tiang gja tri so sanh miic do quan trpng ciia timg cap tieu chi.
- Xic dinh gii tri rieng cue dai A^^^ ciia ma tt4n so sanh theo phuong trinh:
de,t(A-AxI)=0 (2) - Xac djnh vec to ttpng sd bang giai he phuang trinh:
iA-AxI)xw = 0 w>0
- Chuan hda vecta trpng sd w iheo cdng tinier
(3)
T^.
(4)
diim sd long the, cic phmmg an duoc xep hang theo diim sd ldng thi nay. Phuang phip tt'nh dilm sd c6 the dua tren mdt sd quy tic gdm: 1) Tdng theo ttpng sd dan gian (Simple Additive Weighting - SAW); 2) Tnmg binh Iheo ttpng sd (Order Weighting Average - OWA); 3) Riuong phip diim ly ludng (TOPSIS); va 4) Phuang phip tuyin chpn tbeo cap (ELECTRE) [6]. Cac quy tic nay phu mpt khoing rpng cic dnh hudng ra quyit dinh va cd the ducfc chpn bdi ngudi ra quyit dinh theo cic die tnmg ciia bai loan ra quyet dinh.
2.2. Phdt triin chucmg trinh phdn tich HTRQD
Tren co sd cic phucmg phip da ttinh biy, mpi chuang trinh phan tfch ho trp ra quyit dinh budc diu da dupc xiy dung, sir dyng cdng cy lap trinh C++. Chuang trmh di tt'ch hop ci 2 phuong phip xac djnh ttpng sd uu tien va 4 phuang phap tt'nh diem sd neu trSn. Ngudi sir dung chuang ttinh cd the lua chpn phuang phap tinh tiiy theo bii toin cy the. Chuong trinh da dupc ddng gdi dudi dang phan mem miy tt'nh va da dupc d ^ g ky ban quyen (ten gpi:
VNDSS).
Trong phien ban nay cau tnic va giao di?n ve CO bin gidng nhu chuang Irinh mDSS da phat trien ciia FEEM dimg cho cic du an d Chau Au. Cic phit trien nang cao s€ dupc ti^p tuc a cic phien ban tiep theo. Tren hinh 3 la cic man hinh lam viec chinh cua chirong trinh.
Trong dd man hinh 3a la md hinh DPSIR de xac dinh cic phuang an va tieu chf danh gia.
Viec xay dyng ham gii tri va xac dinh gii ttj cho ma trdn ddnh gid the hien trong man hinh 3b. Ket qua phan tfch sir dung phuang phap SAW thi hien O^n man hinh 3c. Hinh 3d li bilu dd bin vflng ciia cic phuang an.
2.1.3. Lua chpn phuang in, ra quyet djnh Thdng qua ma Iran dinh gii da xac djnh d cic buoc trudc. diem sd dSnh gii phuang an qua cic tieu chi rieng le dupc quy thanh mdt
3. Kit qua va ban luin
3.1. Vdn de qudn ly dgp thuy diin Dakmi 4
DT Ba. P.TM. Hgnh I Tap chi Khoa hgc DHQGHN. Cac Khoa hgc Trat ddt vii M6i irudng. Tdp 29. So 2 (2013) 1-10 5
C^y hoach phit trien thuy di^n bac thang cho he thdng sdng Vu Gia - Thu Bdn da xac djnh 8 dv an thuy dien Idn (U^n 30 MW). Tdng cdng suit lip d^l ciia 8 d\r an vao khoang I.IOOMW. Vdi each tiep cgn theo hac thang, cac du an cd mdi quan he phu thudc lan nhau, cac dy an d thupng nguon s€ dieu tiet nudc cho cac dy an d ha luu. Ngoii cac dy an ldn, ttong lmi vuc cdn cd tten 36 du an vira (10-30 MW) vi nhd (dudi 10 MW) vi vdi ldng cdng suit 346 MW [2].
Cac lic dpng ciia he thdng dap thuy dien thupng ngudn sdng Vu Gia len cic tfnh chat cua tai nguyen nudc va ngudn nudc cho TP. Da Nang la khong ttanh khoi. Du in thdy dien Dakmi 4 xay dung ttdn thupng nguon sdng Vu Gia, thupc xa Phude Xuin, huyen Phude Son, tinh Quang Nam. Cdng ttinh cd cdng suit lap miy 190MW, li mpt ttong nhihig in ttong Quy hoach bac thang thuy dien tren he thdng sdng Vu Gia - Thu Bdn. Tuy nhien, chi c6 dy in thiiy dien Dakmi 4 dupc thiet ke theo phuang an khdng tra nudc ve ddng cu ma cd so do khai thac chuyen nudc tir sdng Cii (cdn gpi li sdng Dakmi - nhanh cua sdng Vu Gia) sang sdng Ngpn Thu Bdn-sdng Thu Bon [2].
Vi?c nin ddng chay cho Dakmi 4 sang sdng Thu Bdn cd Ihl s§ giy ra mpt sd van de cho ha luu sdng Vu Gia (hinh 4). Trong miia khd, dong chiy giim ttdn s6ng Vu Gia se lam cho ddng chiy tten sdng Ai Nghia va sdng Yen ciing giam theo d phSn hg luu, anh hudng ddn kha nang lay nudc cua thanh phd Da Nang. Vdi di^n tich 1.125 km' ciia Dakmi 4 sd bi tich khdi luu vyc sdng Vu Gia, dy kien luu luong ddng chay sd giam binh quin ft nhit la 10m /s ttong thing cd luu lupng ddng chay thap nhit trong nSm. Luu lupnng trung binh miia khd tgi Ai Nghia se giam tii khoang 45m7s xudng BSm'^/s.
Sy suy giam luu Iupng sd lim gia ling xam nhip man ddng sdng Yen [2]. Trong nhung
nam ban cue dai, lic dOng ciia xam nhip mSn cd the sd nghidm trpng ban. Ciing vdi dong chay thap ttong miia khd, cic diem lay nudc cung cip cho ndng nghiep va sinh boat dpc song Vu Gia se khd khin ban vdi chi phi cao hon.
Mdt van de nua cd thd xSy ra li luu lupng nudc tai sdng Ngpn Thu Bdn se Idn ban binh thudng. Didu nay se gay ra tt'nh mat dn dinh din den xdi Id bd tten mpt sd dogn sdng Ngpn Thu Bdn. Ngoii ra cic bai ven song tnrdc Ida la noi canh tac hoac chd d ciia ngudi din ciing se bi ngip, mye nudc Irung binh hang nSm se thay ddi cao hon so vdi trudc day lam anh hudng nhat dinh den ddi sdng kinh te xa hpi ciia mpt sd dja phuOTig dpc Ngpn Thu Bon.
3.2. Xdy dung bdi todn phdn tich J
quyet dinh • trg ra
3.2.1. Xic dinh cic lya chpn ra quydt dinh Cic lua chpn ra quydt dinh dupc xac dinh trdn CO sd tham van cic ehuydn gia, cic ben lidn quan, cSc nhi quin IJ sau khi da dupc gidi thieu van de. Tir phan tfch thyc te thiet ke quan ly dgp Dakmi 4 ttdn sdng Cai, 4 phucmg an linh loin dupc xic dinh nhu sau:
1. Xay dip Dakmi 4 vdi cua xi nudc phit dien nin hoan loan sang Ngpn Thu Bon va khdng cd ciia xa nudc miia khd vao sdng Cai.
2. Thiet ke va xi nudc miia khd 8m'/s vao sdng Cai.
3. Thiet ke va xa nudc miia khd 25mVs vao sdng Cai.
4. Thiet ke va xa nudc miia khd 36m7s vao sdng Cai.
Cac phuang in tfnh loan dupc thyc bien vdi cac tham sd thiet ke ddng chay miia khd vdi tan suit 90% (la tan suat tt'nh loan thidt kd dam bao sin xuat ndng nghiep). Cic die trung ngudn
6 DT. Ba, P.TM. Hgnh I Tap chi Khoa hgc DHQGHN, Cdc Khoa hoc Trdt ddt vd Moi tntmtg. Tap 29. So 2 (2013) 1-10
nudc tt'nh toan khi chua cd he thdng thuy didn Dakmi 4 dupc su dung nhu la cac thong s6 chuan de danh gia cic phucmg an.
3.2.2. Xac dinh cic tieu chi danh gia hd trp ra quyet dinh
Cic tidu chi danh gii cic phuang an duac xic djnh tii viec phin tt'ch cic mdi quan tim tten c i ba linh vuc kinh id, mdi trudng vi xi hdi ttong khu virc [11,12,13]. Qua tham khao cic mdi quan lam ve tai nguydn nudc ttong bio cao "Danh gji mdi trudng chien lupc luu vyc Vu Gia-Thu Bdn cho phit trien he thdng thuy dien" va ip dung md hinh nhin thirc DPSIR, cic tidu chi budc diu dupc xic djnh cho thii nghiem tt'nh toin gdm:
1. Lupng dien nang khai thac dupc ciia Dakmi 4.
2. Ddng chay trdn sdng Vu Gia (liy lgi tram thiiy vin Thanh My) dim bao cap nudc ndng nghiep vi sinh thii so vdi dieu kien binh thudng.
3 Ddng chay tren sdng Han dam bio cung cap nutJc ndng nghiep, sinh hogt va cdng nghiep cho Thanh phd Da Nang.
4. Mijrc dp xim nhgp man tndn sdng Han.
3.3. Tinh todn cdc parang dnhotrara quyet dinh
Md hinh ddng chay sir dyng trong tt'nh toin cac phuang in quan Iy dap Dakmi 4 li md hinh MIKE 11. Cic thong s6 vl sa dd mgng sdng, cac tham sd diu vio vi sd lieu mua thiet kd (tan suit 90%, dam bao sin xuat ndng nghidp) thu thip tir thyc Id. Cac kdt qua md phdng dupc sii dung dd xiy dung cic gii tri cho cac tieu chi trong ma trdn phdn tich (hing 1).
Hinh 3. Cac man Mnh chinh ctia chugng tdnh.
D.r. Ba, P.T-Al Hgnh I Tgp dti Khoa hoc DHQGHN, (jic Khoa hgc Tni dot va Moi tnnmg. Tap 29, So 2 (2013) 1-10 7
Hinh 4. So do khu vyc nghien cihi.
Cic gia tri trong khoang [0,1] dupc xac djnh de chuan hoi ma trdn phdn tich vd ma trgn ddnh gid dya ttdn cic dgng ham cho limg Ueu chi. Cd ba dang him co bin: 1) Dgng ham Ipi nhuin: gii tti trong ma trgn phan tt'ch cang cao, gii tri trong ma Iran danh gia c ^ g cao; 2) Dgng ham chi phi lpi ich: gii tti trong ma trgn phan tt'ch c ^ g cao, gii tri ttong ma Iran ddnh gii cang thip vi 3) Dang bing so: khi khdng cd mdi tuong quan thugn hay nghich nhu 2 trudng hpp trdn.
Chircmg trinh sd ty dpng tt'nh didm d cung mpt thang diem [0-1] cho cac tieu chi iing vdi mdi phuang &n vi dua vao ma trgn danh gia.
Ddi vdi tidu chi san lupng di?n: lay sin lugng dien cd thi khai thic tgi Dakmi 4. Him lpi nhugn nhgn gii tri 1 tuong iing vdi sin lupmg di?n dat cdng suit thiit ki (787Gwh) khi khdng cd nudc xi tir Dakmi 4 vio sdng Vu Gia vi nhin gia trj 0 khi san luang dien chi dat 200Gwh do nudc phai xa vao sdng Vu Gia dim bio ddng chiy binh thudng miia khd [2].
Tidu chi cap nudc cho ndng nghidp: liy luu lupng ddng chay tgi Thanh My. Him loi nhugn dgi gia tri 1 khi ddng chay miia khd dam bao bing hoic ldn hem khi khdng cd thiiy dien Dakmi 4, dgt gia trj 0 tucmg ung vdi tnrdng hop toan bp nudc tgi Dakmi 4 bi ehuydn sang sdng Thu Bdn.
Tidu chi cap nudc cho cdng nghidp vi sinh hogt: liy lini luong dong chay tai didm liy nudc Can Dd trdn sdng Han. Him Igi nhugn tuong tu nhu da chpn cho tieu chi nudc ndng nghiep.
Tieu chi mdc do nhiem m^n: lay dp man nudc sdng Han lai Cau Dd. Him chi phi lay gii tri I khi dp man dip iing nudc sinh hogt dudi a.SVcc (gidi hgn dp min cua nudc ngpt: sdng, hd, ho chiia), lay gia tri 0 khi dp mSn dgt 3%ci (gidi hgn dp man nha may nuoc Cau Dd-Da Ning phai ngimg hogt d^ng) [ 15].
Cac trpng sd dupc lay ngang nhau (cd nghTa li muc dp quan ttpng ciia cic lieu chi li nhu nhau). Kdt qua phan tt'ch su dung phuong p h ^
8 D.r. Ba. P.TM. Hgnh I Tap chiKhoa hgc DHQGHN, Cdc Khoa hpc Trdi ddt vd Moi truimg. Tap 29. S62 (2013) 1-10
trung binh trpng sd don gian (SAW) ttinh bay tren hinh 5. Bieu dd bin viing (hinh 6) thd hien bang cic hinh trdn, kich thudc hinh trdn hieu fti diem danh gia aia phuong an (ve tren do tin hinh 5). Vi tri aia Wnh trdn trong he tpa dp lam giic bieu Ihi muc dp Ihda man ciia phuong an ddi vdi 3 khia canh: Kinh ti, Xi bdi va Mdi tnrdng.
Nhu vgy, ket qua bii toan thii nghiem xay dung he thdng bd trp ra quydt dinh cho thiy didn Dakmi 4 cho thiy jAuong an xa nudc miia Bang 1. Ket qua ma tran
khd dim bao trtmg binh 36m7s duac danh gii cao nhit, phuang in nay ddi hdi cd thdm mpt hd chiJa phia sau dap Dakmi 4. Phuong in ^ H cho phep cd sin lugng dien toi da mi van dim bao nudc cho vhng ha luu va Ihanh phd Da Ning. Hon nfla, kha nang chdng lu cung dupc tang ldn. Phtrong in co diem sd tiip theo la phuang in xi 8m /s vao song Vu Gia ttong miia Idid. Phuong in cd diem thip nhit la khdng tra lgi nudc vao sdng Vu Gia (bang 1).
phSn tfch va ma tran dinh gia Tieu chi
San xuat dien nang Nudc cho nong nghiep Niroc cho cong ngliiep vk Sinh hoat Xam nhap mdn tren song Han
Chi so
San lugng dien co the khai [Iiac cua Dakmi 4 Dong cliay tai Thanh MJ
D6ng cliay tai Cau D6-s6ng Han Do mdn tai tram Vu G i a i Diem so tong the cua phuong an
Don vi
Gwh m'/s m'/s
&
Cac phuang Kh5ng tra lai 787 (1) 13 (0.13)
3 (0,12)
2.3 (0.69)
0.47
an tra lai T i i lai 8m'/s 738 (0.94)
21 (0.27)
14 (0.56)
1.4 (0.95)
0,68
nuoc cho song Tra lai 25mVs 200 (0) 38 (Oj5)
19 (0.76)
0.7 (0.98)
0.57 VuGia
Tral9i 36mVs 787 (1) 49 (0.73)
22 (0.88)
0.5 (0.99)
0,90
787 Gwh: Ket qua ciia raa tran phan tfch, la ket qua danh gia cic giai phip dya vao cic tidu chf da chpn.
(1): Ket qua cua ma tran danh gii, la ket qua chuan hoa trong khoang [0,1 ] cic gii tri trong ma tr^n phan tfch
oe -i 0 7 -j O 0 6 -^
(0 S 0 5 - ^ 5 0 4 4
0 3 ~ 02 -_
0-1 ~
Tri0in3/s
DAP ifUG CHO SAW
__
Traem3/s Tri25m3/s T(i 3Bm3«
LLTACHpN
Hinh 5. Ket qua phan tfch cic phtrong an.
D.T Ba. P.TM. Hanli I Tap chi Khoa hgc DHQGHN. Cdc Khoa hgc Trdi ddt vd Moi tnrdng. Tap 29. SS2 (2013) 1-10 9
KINH T£ LI/A CHON
© P h t r o n g an 1 Tra36mVs = 0PO l 5 P h u o n g a n 2 Tra8mVs = 0.68
© Phirong a n 3 ' T r a 25mVs = 0.57 Phinmg an 4: Tra Om^/s = 0 47
Mdi TRU-dHG
Hinh 6. Bieu do ben 4. Ket luan
Tren ca sd \f thuyet phan tich hd ttg ra quydt djnh, mdt chuang trinh phan tich hd trp quin IJ tdng hpp lii nguyen nudc da dupc xiy dung. Chuang trinh cd chiic ning tuang tu vdi chuang trinh dang sil dung nghidn curu, ap dung cho cic du an d Chau Au vi tren thd gidi.
Vdi van de thyc te ttong quin IJ tii nguyen nudc luu vyc sfing Vu Gia - Thu Bon, bai loan thu nghidm phan U'ch quan ly xiy dyng dip thuy di?n Dakmi 4 da dupc thyc hidn. Day c6 thd coi li bai toin mau trong quan ly tdng hpp lai nguyen nudc, nham dung hoa lpi ich giiia cac nhu cau sii dyng ciia cac cdng tnnh thiiy dien khi ma Dakmi 4 li cdng ttinh duy nhit tiiupc he thdng thiy didn bgc thang Vu Gia-Thu Bdn dupc thiet ke tbeo phucmg in khdng tri Igi nudc vd ddng cu (sdng Vu Gia) ma theo phuang in chuyen nudc (sang sdng Thu Bdn).
Kdt qua cho thay phuong in tra 36m7s vao sdng Vu Gia trong miia khd cd diem danh gii cao nhal, tidp den li phuang an tta 8m'/s, phuang in tri 25m^/s va cudi cung la phuang Sn khdng tta nudc vao sdng Vu Gia. Tuy mdi li bai loan mang tt'nh thii nghidm ban diu vdi chi mdt sd cic lidu chi tieu bieu, nhung kdt qua u'nh todn di phin inh dupc tinh hinh thyc te hien
virng cua phuong an.
nay khi phuang in khdng tta nudc ttd Igi sdng Vu Gia da gay ndn vin dd ttanh chap nudc giiia thCty dien Dakmi 4 vi TP. Da Nang.
Nhu vay, cdng cy HTRQD niy cd the dupc ip dung mpt each kha thi cho vide danh gia cic phuang in quan IJ tai nguydn nudc trdn co sd dinh luong rd ring, tryc quan va khich quan, lim cho vide ra quydt djnh cd ca sd khoa bpc, chac chan ban. Mat khac phuang phip lugn vi md hinh da dupc lip trinh thinh cdng cy phan mdm vi vay cd the ip dung cho nhieu bai toan quan IJ luu vyc d cac quy mo khac nhau (quy md khdng gian vi quan IJ).
Ldi cam on: Bii bao da hoin thinh vdi sy ttp giiip mpt phan kinh phi ciia de lai dpc lap cip nha nudc "Nghidn ciiu dd xuit cic giai phap quin IJ sii dung long hpp tai nguyen nudc luu vyc sdng Vu Gia - sdng Han dap iing nhu ciu phat tridn bdn vung Thanh phd Da NSng".
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Decision-making Support System for Integrated Management of Water Resources: Dakmi 4 Case Study
Dang Tha Ba\ Ph^m Thi Minh Hanh"
' University of Engineering and Technology - Vietnam National University, Hanoi 'Institute of Mechanics. Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology Abstract: Iniegrated management of water resources in service of sustainable development is a practical demand. It is a complex and multi-disciplinary work which is related to many subjects, so il is necessary lo have a support tool. This paper presents in short Ihe way of getting access to the building of program in support of making decision on the basin-scope integrated management of water resources being studied and appUed in the world. On that basis, a program in support of making decision on iniegrated management of water resources has been packaged in the form of the already buill computer software with the Vietnamese language interface. A case study of decision-making support system for Dakmi 4 dam construction and management was carried out. The plans and evaluation criteria were based on the socio-economic development plan of Da Ning City and the hydroelectric power plan for the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin, Quang Nam province. Dakmi 4 is a big hydroelectric power plant in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basin, which has a great influence on the local people's Ufe as well as on environment in the river basin. Therefore, it is necessary to have a more comprehensive study for this hydroelectric power work wilh a view to serving the integrated management of water resources in the Vu Gia-Thu B6n river basin.
Keywords: Decision-making support, iniegrated management of water resources, multi-criteria analysis.
