KINH TE
THlTC TRANG NCf CONG Cf VIET NAM GIAI DOAN TlT NAM 2013 DEN NAM 2017
» TRAN VAN NGHIA
TOM TAT:
Tai Viet Nam, nd cdng dang la mdt trong nhffng van de thu hut nhieu stf quan tdm nhd't trdn cic didn dan kinh td' trong thdi gian gin ddy. Vdi mdt ntfdc dang phit trid'n nhtf Vidt Nam, vay nd cd thd xem la mot cdng cu ein thid't de tai trd vd'n, dip ffng nhu clu diu tff va khuyd'n khich phdt trien san xua't trong giai doan nen kinh te' con cd mffc tieh luy tha'p. Trong b i i nghidn ctfu nay, tic gia tip trong vdo vide phdn tich khii niem, vai trd cua nd cdng va khai quit hda ly thuyet ve hoat ddng quan ly nd cdng. Bdn canh dd, bai bao cung phdn tieh thtfc trang np cdng trong giai doan ttf nam 2013 dd'n nam 2017 dtfa tren cic so' hdu huy ddng dtfdc tff nhffng ngudn dang tin edy nhtf Ngdn hing the gidi, Quy tien te qudc te'..., tff dd ehi ra nguydn nhan ddn den tinh trang nd edng tdng eao d Vidt Nam.
Tuf khoa: Nd edng, nd Chinh phu, nd ntfde ngoai.
1. Dat va'n dd
Nd cdng Id mdt trong nhffng ngudn vd'n quan trpng ma cic Chinh phu khdng the bd qua trong qua trinh phat trien. Ne'u tin dung td't dffde ngudn vd'n vay, nd co the tao nen nhffng btfdc phat tridn than ky cho cic ntfdc, dac biet la cic qud'c gia dang phit trien nhff Viet Nam, dtfa tren viec cung tfng tien de tid'p edn cac cdng nghd mdi. Ngffdc lai, nd'u hoat ddng qudn ly nd cdng khdng td't, khdng hoang nd cd the xay ra, dan de'n nhffng hau qua nang nd ma ngffdi ddn trong ntfdc bupc phdi ganh chiu. Do tinh cha't quan trpng va vai trd khdng thd thay the" cua ngudn vdn nay, Chinh phu cac nffde ludn ddnh stf quan tam ddc bidt de'n boat ddng vay vd'n. De dat dffpc
hieu qua trong vide huy ddng vd sff dung vd'n, boat dpng phdn tich tinh hinh nd cdng Id mdt trong nhffng btfdc quan trpng, khdng the bo qua.
2. Cd sd ly luan ve vide danh gia tinh dn dinh cua nd ntfdc ngoai
2.1. Khdi ni$m ve nd cong
Trdn the' gidi hien nay, tdn tai ra't nhieu eae khii niem khde nhau ve nd cdng, tiiy thude vio tffng dd'i ttfdng nghien cffu, np cdng se dtfde nhin nhan d nhieu gdc dp.
Ngdn hing The' gidi (WB) dinh nghia np cdng Id toan bd nhffng khoan nd cua chinh phu va nhffng khoan nd dtfdc chinh phu bao linh. Trong dd:
- Nd ciia chinh phu bao gdm nd trong ntfdc, nP ntfde ngoai cua chinh phu va cie dai ly cua chinh
phu; cic tinh, thdnh phd hoac cac td chffc ehinh trj trffc thupc chinh phu va cic dai ly cua ede td chffc nay, cac doanh nghidp nha ntfdc.
- Nd cua chinh phu bao linh gdm nhffng khoan np trong ntfdc vd np ntfdc ngoai cua khu vffc tff nhdn do ehinh phu dffng ra bao lanh.
Dtfdi gdc nhin cua cua Quy Tien td Qud'c td (IMF), np cdng dtfdc xac dmh bao gdm np cua khu vtfc tii chinh cdng va nd eua khu vtfc phi tii chinh cdng. Trong dd:
- Khu vtfc tai chinh cdng gdm: Cic td chffc tien td (Ngdn bdng trung tfdng, cac td chffc tin dung nha ntfdc) vd cac td chffc phi tien td (cac to chffc tin dung khdng cho vay ma ehi ed ehffc nang hd trd phdt trien).
- Khu vffc phi tai chinh cdng gdm: Chinh phu, tinh thanh phd', chinh quyen dia ph ffdng, cie doanh nghidp phi tai chinh nha nffde.
Lu at quan ly nd cdng Viet Nam quy dinh nd cdng bao gdm: Nd chinh phu, nd dffde Chinh phu bao lanh, np chinh quyen dia phtfdng.
2.2. Cdc nhdn tddnh hddng den n^cong Thdnhdt. sffcan bing cua ngdn sich cdban ed anh hffdng rd't Idn dd'n tinh trang nd cdng. Nd cdng thtfdng xua't hidn khi thu ngan sdch nhi ntfdc khdng du bil dap cho cac nhu cau ehi tieu. Do dd, mffc thim hut ngdn sach cd the phan anh gia trj tuydt dd'i eua nd cdng chinh phu. Dieu dd cGng ed nghia la nd cdng cd the dv((ic ban che khi ed nhffng tic ddng lam khoang each tham hut nhd di.
Thd hai, sff tang, giam cua Iii sud't cd thd lam tinh trang nd edng xa'u di hoac td't len, nguyen nhdn bdi vi lai sua't thffc te' chinh li gia ca cua quyen sff dung vd'n vay ndi chung va cic khodn nd ciia ehinh phu ndi rieng. Chi phi sff dung nd cdng se tang len khi lai sua't tang len, khie'n eho ehinh phu gap khd khan khi tie'p can ngudn vd'n nay. Mat khic, trtfdng hdp niy cung cd the dan de'n khung hoang np cdng nd'u ndn kinh te trong ntfdc khdng phat trien thuan Idi, vi the', chinh phu cung se can nhic khi huy ddng ngan sach bang phtfPng thffc vay nd. Ngffdc lai, nd'u lai sua't giam, chinh phu cd the can nhac dd'n viec tan dung ngudn vd'n vay de phit tridn kinh te trong nffde, ddn diu cic khoan dau ttf cd hieu qua eao cho qud'c gia.
Thd ba. td'c dp tdng trtfdng thffc te cung ed inh hffdng den tinh trang nd cdng. Cu the, khi ndn kinh
te' phit trien td't, chinh phu se dd ding tie'p can vdn vay hdn, din de'n khd ndng np cdng tang len. Mat khic, khi nen kinh td' tang trtfdng nhanh, lam phat thffdng xua't hidn. Trong trffdng hdp nay, vide ca'p bu lam phat cho cdc khoin nd da de'n han thanh toan se lam tinh trang nd cdng xa'u di.
Thd tu, lai sud't ngoai te ciing la mdt trong nhffng ye'u to' anh hffdng de'n cae khoan vay nd ntfdc ngoai cua ehinh phu. Tffdng tff nhff lai sua'l thffc td', khi lai sud't ngoai te tang Idn, chinh phu se han chd' tid'p edn vdi cac khoan np nffde ngoii hdn va ngffdc lai.
Thd ndm, tinh trang nd cdng cung bj inh hffdng bdi chinh sich ty gii. Stf bid'n ddng cua ty gia anh htfdng dd'n ehi phi cua khoan np cdng, cu the, nd cdng se tang Idn khi ti gia tang vd ngtfdc lai.
23. Qudn ly np cong
Cic nghidn cffu da chi rd, nd cdng la mdt bp phin khdng the thie'u trong qua trinh phit trien kinh te' cua cic qud'c gia, d i e biet la cac nffde dang phit trien. Sff ein thid't cua nd cdng dffde li gidi Id do sff thid't hut ngudn vd'n tai cac qud'c gia.
Bdn canh dd, nd'u eac nffde dang phit trien ed the tan dung dffde ngdn vd'n nay, hp cd the di tat, ddn diu dd nit ngdn khoing cich vdi cae nffde giau ed tren the' gidi. Xud't phat tff sff can thiet khach quan v i vai trd khdng the thay thd' dtfpc cua no, nhidm vu quan ly nd cdng dang trd nen ngay cdng quan trpng.
Thd nhdt, quan ly nd edng la mot cdng cu hieu qua, giup Chinh phu ngdn chin Idy lan stf ba't dn kinh td'.
Thd hai, nd'u Chinh phii cd thd duy tri chinh sach quan ly nd cdng than trpng, nd cd the giam thieu nhffng cudc khung hoang tai chinh - tien t6.
Thd ba, vdi mdt phffdng thffc quan \^ nd cdng hidu qua, Chinh phu cd the dd ding xic dinh dffde mffc vay np hdp ly de vtfa dam bdo nhu clu chi tidu cua chinh phu, vffa tid'p edn dffpc cic khoan vay vdi ehi phi tha'p, vtfa giam thid'u rui ro khung hoang nd edng.
Hffdng din quan Iy nd cdng cua IMF/WB-2001 chi rd: "Muc tieu cua quan ly nd cdng la dam bao nhu clu Cii chinh cua chinh phu dffde dap ffng vdi chi phi thd'p nhd't trong trung va dai han phu hdp vdi mffe dd nii ro". Mue tidu nay se dffde eu thd hda dffa tren ehinh sich va kd' hoach phit tridn ridng cua tffng qud'c gia bao gom:
KINH TE
- Bao dam tinh minh bach vd trach nhiem giai trinh doi vdi van de cd ca'u, quy md vi sff dung nd cdng.
- Ndng cao va hoan thidn khudn khd phip ly ve np edng.
- Xdy dffng cic chid'n Iffde quan ly nP eu the va hidu qua.
- Xay dffng cae md minh quan ly rui ro trong hoat ddng quan ly np.
- De xua't va thffc thi phit trien thi trtfdng chffng khodn Chinh phii.
3. Thtfc tr^ng n^ cdng d Viet Nam giai doan 2013 - 2017
Ty Id nd edng/GDP cua Viet Nam dang cd xu hffdng ting nhanh nhffng nam gin ddy. Cu thd, tff nam 2011 den nam 2015, ti Id nd edng/GDP cua Vidt Nam da tang khoing tff 50% Idn de'n 62,2%.
Tdi cudi nam 2016, nd edng d6c tinh dd Idn tdi 63,7% GDP. Sang dd'n nam 2017, vdi sff nd Iffc tff phia Chinh phu va nhffng tin hidu tich etfc tff nen kinh td, ty Id nd edng cffa Vidt Nam giam nhe, edn 61,3%, tuy nhien, vdi td'c dp tang lien tuc trong nhffng nam gin day, mffe tran np cdng 65% GDP do Qudc hdi dat ra ed thd sd bj pha vd trong thdi gian tdi. (Hinh 1)
Trong giai doan tff nam 2013 dd'n nam 2017, dd dau ttf vao nhffng dtf i n trong nffde, Chinh phu da dd'y manh hoat dpng vay nd, khid'n cho ty Id np edng tang nhanh. Sang dd'n nam 2017, mffc tang trtfdng dat 6,81% GDP. Dieu nay da giup GDP trong nam qua dat khoang 5,1 trieu ty ddng, nhd
Hinh 1: Ty 1$ nd cong cOa Vi$t Nam giai doan 2013 - 2017 (% GDP)
do, ty Id nd cdng giam nhe. Vdi mdt ntfdc dang phdt tridn nhtf Vidt Nam, vay nd la mdt edng cu quan trpng de tid'p can vd'n. Nhd dd, nhu cau dau ttf va khuye'n khich phit trien sin xud't trong giai doan nen kinh td' edn cd mffc tich luy tha'p cd the dffde dap tfng, dd'y manh td'c dp tang trtfdng ciia nen kinh te'. Tuy nhidn, nd'u Chinh phu lam dung vd'n vay vi khdng quin ly hidu qua ngudn tdi ehinh nay thi cac khoin nd se thinh mdt ginh ning eho ttfdng lai, khid'n stf ben vffng cua nen kinh td' bi de dpa.
Hinh 2: Ty trong no cdng, no Chinh phu, no nude ngoai cOa Vi$t Nam giai doan 2011 - 2017 (%GDP)
Ngudn: cafe.vn
Nguon: Vien Chien lupc vd Chinh .sdch tdi chinh Dffa v i o sd^ lieu the hien d Hinh 2, cd the thd'y, ty Id nd ntfde ngoai eua Vidt Nam dang cd xu hffdng tang cham, tff 37,9% nam 2011 de'n 49% nam 2017. Ngoai ra, trong cd cd'u nd Chinh phu, ti trpng cua cic khoan vay tff ntfdc ngodi ciing giam tff 61,1% xud'ng chi con khoang 41%
trong giai doan nay. Nhtfng eon sd' phdn tieh d trdn eho thd'y, Chinh phu van con ngan ngai trong vide khai thac ngudn vd'n ttf ntfdc ngodi. Vide tim kie'm ngudn tii chinh tff cac qud'c gia tren thd^ gidi cd the md ra cho Vidt Nam cd hpi di tat, ddn dau nhffng cdng nghd mdi. Dieu niy d i e biet quan trpng trong thdi ky bung nd cupc each mang cdng nghd lan thtf 4 nhtf hidn nay. Tuy nhien, ngudn vd'n nay cung tiem an nhtfng rui ro ve ty gia, dae biet Id trong bd'i canh ba loai ngoai td chinh trong danh muc nd eua Vidt Nam hien nay la USD, JPY vd EUR bien ddng manh trong thdi gian vffa qua.
Chinh vi vay, khi sff dung vd'n vay ntfde ngoii, Chinh phu cung can phai Itfu y v i o van de quan ly np cdng, bdi vi sp sP sua't vd kem hieu qui cd the da'y di't ntfdc vao mdt cudc khiing hoang, gay anh hffdng tdi nhffng ngffdi dan trong nffde khdng chi d hidn tai ma edn trong ttfdng lai.
Hinh 3: Ty 1$ no cong. Vidt Nam va m^t so nude trong khu vuc giai doan 2000-2016 (% GDP)
Ngudn. IMF (zona)
Dtfa vao Hinh 3 , ed the thd'y, vio nam 2000, ty le nd cdng eiia Viet Nam nim d mffc thi'p nhd't so vdi cic qud'c gia trong khu vffc (khoang 31%), nhiftig bat dau tff nam 2005, eon sd' niy tdng manh va dd'n nam 2016, ty le nd cdng cua Viet Nam di dffng diu trong nhdm bay nffde Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaisia, Philippines, Thdi Lan va Viet Nam. Nam 2017, ty Id nd cdng trdn GDP cua Vidt Nam giam nhe nhd sff tang trffdng td't cua nen kinh te, tuy nhien, mffc vay nd eua Viet Nam van d mffc cao.
Ttfdng ttf, eung xet trong giai doan 2000 - 2016, stf gia tang nhanh trong boat dpng vay vd'n da khie'n cho ty le np cdng cua Viet Nam eao hdn so vdi cac qud'c gia mdi ndi hode dang phdt trien tren thd'gidi. (Hinh 4)
Stf tang nhanh trong ty le nd cdng d Viet Nam phan dnh stf thidu hut ve ngudn cung vd'n so vdi nhu cau chi tidu eua Chinh phu. Dieu nay se dae bidt trd ndn nghidm trpng ne'u Chinh phu Viet Nam khdng hoach djnh dtfdc chie'n Itfpe sff dung vd'n va trd nP phu hdp. Bdn canh dd, td'c dp phat trie'n khdng deu cua ndn kinh teed the ddn de'n nhffng giai doan GDP bj sut gidm, de dpa de'n kha nang hodn tra np. Day cd thd se trd thanh mam md'ng cua cupc khung hoang nP
Hinh 4: Ty 1$ no cong, Vi§t Nam va m0t so nude mdi noi/dang phat trien tren the gidi. 2000-2016 (% GDP)
zoos ZOOl ZD02 21
cdng trong tffdng lai.
4. Kd't luan
Dtfa vao phan tieh d tren, co the nhin thd'y tinh trang nd cong dang tang len vdi td'c dd rat nhanh d Vidt Nam trong nhtfng nam gin day. Sang dd'n nam 2017, mac du ty trpng np edng giam, xua't phdt tff vide td'c dp tang cua GDP cao hdn td'c dp tang cua nd. Nguyen nhdn dan den tinh trang niy cd thd dffde tdm tdt lai trong mot sd' nhffng diem sau:
Thd nhdt, do stf phat trien nhanh cua nen kinh td', dan de'n nhu cau chi tidu dd cai thidn cd sd ha tang tang len, dan de'n vide Chinh phu phai tim kid'm nhffng ngudn Iffc tai chinh khic ngoai cac khoan thu ngan sich truyen thong nhtf thud', phi, le phi...
Thd hai, thdm hut ngdn sdch cao trong mot thdi gian dai, mdt phan bat ngudn tff vide sff dung ngudn vdn vay mdt each kem hieu qua, dac bifit d khu vtfc kinh td' nhd nffde, gay ra nhffng thach thffc ra't Idn dd'i vdi vide kiem soit nd cdng trong gidi ban cho phep. Ben eanh do, thdm hut ngdn sach tao ra sffc ep ddi vdi nguon tra nd trong ngdn sich nha ntfde, ddn dd'n tinh trang dao nd ngdy cdng gia tang. Theo Chtfdng trinh quan ly nd trung han giai doan 2016 -2018 dtfdc Thil ttfdng Chinh phu phd duyet vao cud'i thing 4/nam 2017, Itfdng vay de tra nd gd'c trong nam 2016 ia 132,4 nghinty ddng, nam 2017 khoang 144nghin ty ddng. Tdm lai, de giai quyd't nhffng khd khdn trffdc mat, Chinh phu phai tid'p tue gia tang nd de tra nhffng khoan nd dd'n ban vd dap nhffng nhffng nhu cau chi tidu quan trpng eua qud'c gia.
Thd ba, rui ro ve lai susTt dang ngay mdt tdng Idn, din dd'n gia tang ding ke chi phi huy dpng vdn cua Chinh phu. Vdi vide ting din ty trong np trong ntfdc trong ed cd'u nd va keo dai ky han trdi phid'u chinh phu (nham giam dp Itfc tra nd cua ehinh phu trong ngan ban), lai sua't phat hinh trdi phie'u se chiu sffc dp tang. Dieu nay khid'n cho ngudn Itfc trong ntfde can dan va Chinh phu ph3i suy tinh de'n vide khai thdc vd'n tit ntfde ngoai, va tinh trang nd edng wpuan.iMF{zoi7a) trd ndn khd kiem soat hdn.
KINH TE
Doquy md va tinh rui ro eua nd edng dang cd te'ehiu tic ddng Idn tff ntfdc ngoai nhff Viet Nam, xu hffdng gia ting, giai phip ma cic qud'e gia Itfa bdi vi nd cd thd ngan chan lay lan stf bd't dn kinh chpn dd la nang eao hieu qua qudn ly nd cdng. td' va giam thidu nhtfng eude khung hoang tai Vdi mdt chinh sach quin ly nd cdng hdp ly, chinh - tien te.
Chinh phii cd the dd dang xac dinh dffde mffe vay Tdm lai, dffng trffdc sff de dpa vl edn khung nd hdp Iy de vffa ddm bdo nhu cau chi tieu cua hoang nd cdng vdi nhffng anh hffdng nang ne den Chinh phii, vffa tie'p can dtfdc cic khoan vay vdi the'he Men tai va tffdng lai, viec dffa ra nhffng didu chi phi thd'p, vffa giam thieu riii ro khung hoang ehinh trong ludt quin ly nd edng Id vide lam can nd cdng. Ngoai ra, nd cdng chinh la Itfa chpn thie't, can nhan dffde stf quan tam dung mffc cua khdn ngoan cho nhffng qud'e gia nho cd nen kmh Chinh phu •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1 Awadzi. Elsie Addo (2015). Designing Legal Frameworks for Public Debt Management, IMF Working Paper 15/147.
2. Bp Tdi chinh (2017a) Bdn tin nO cong sd5. http://wwwmof.gov.vn/
3 Bp Tdi chinh (2017b). Mdt sd'kinh nghiem qudc te'vi qudn ly na cong Hd Ndi http://www.mof.gov.vn/
4. Bp Tdi chinh (2009). Di cuang gidi thiiuLu&t Qudn ly nOcdng. http://www.mof.gov.vn/
5. IMF (2017a}. World Economic Outlook Database: Bdnthdng 10/2017. https.//www.imf.org
6. Mendoza, Enrique G. vd Oviedo, P. Marcelo (2009). Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico. Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA,Vol.0(2).
Ngay nh$n bai: 7/8/2018
Ngay phan bien danh gia va su'a chffa: 17/8/2018 Ngay cha'p nh^n dang bai: 27/8/2018 Thdng tin tdc gid:
ThS. T R I N VAN NGHIA Cue Quan tri Tai vii, Bd Ngoai giao
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF VIETNAM FROM 2013 TO 2017
• IVIA. TRAN VAN NGHIA
Adminstrative a n d Financial Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs ABSTRACT:
In Vietnam, the pubhc debt have become one of the most concerned issues in economic forums recently. For a developing country like Vietnam, the debt can be considered as a necessary financial resource for providing capital, meeting investment needs and stimulating production development of the country when the economy has a low level of financial accumulation. This paper focuses on analyzing the concept and the role of public debt, and generahzing the theory of pubhc debt management. In addition, the paper analyzes the status of public debt from 2013 to 2017 based on data collected from reliable sources, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund. Based on results, the paper points out the reasons for the pubUe debt increase of Vietnam.
Keywords: Public debt, government debt, foreign debt.
