Su" dung phiTorng phap CODA trong danh gia cac yeu to
anh hu'dng den ca cau chi tieu cua khach du lich noi dia
• • •
TRjNH TH! HCJCfNG*
LE V A M TUAN"
D A M TH! THG TRAMG"*
Tom tat
Nghien edu gidi thieu vd sd dung ly thuyet mdi - phUOng phdp phdn tich so lieu da hgp (Compositional data analysis - CODA) trong xem xet ddnh gid cdc ye'u to dnh hudng den cO edu ehi tiiu cap qudc gia cda khdch du lich ngi dia tgi Viet Nam, gam cd dia diem du lich, nguon thong tin trudc khi du lieh vd dgc diem nhdn khau hgc cua khdch du lich. Nhdm tdc gid gap khd khdn trong tii'p can so liiu, nin cdc ddnh gid dugc minh hga trin so Ueu dupe lay ta Kit qud dieu tra chi tieu cua khdch du lich ndm 2013 do Tong cue Thd'ng ki thiic hien.
Tijf khda: eacdu chi tieu, du lieh, khdch du lich ngi dia Summary
The study introduces and utilizes new theoiy - Compositional data analysis (CODA) method to assess factors affecting expenditure structure at national level of domestic tourists in Vietnam, including tourist destinations, sources ofpre-trip information and demographic characteristics of tourists. Due to difficulties in accessing data, the assessments are based on data taken from the 2013 Tourism Expenditure Survey conducted by the General Statistics Office.
Keywords: expenditure structure, tourism, domestic tourists
G\6l THIEU Mac du, nghien cu'u ye xu hifdng chi tieu cua khach du lich rat can thie't trong Ca'u true chi tieu ciia khdch du Ijch cd anh hu'dng bd'i canh phdt tnen thi trifdng du lich tai de'n chien lUdc phdt trien du lich ciia Viet Nam vd Viet Nam, nhifng cac nghien cihi lai han ngu'dc lai. TCf xu hifdng chi tidu ciia khdch du lich, che' va phiic tap do nhidu nhan td' khach Tdng cue Du lich va cdc dia phifdng se len ke' hoach quan vd chu quan.
phat trien ke't ca'u ha tang va cac san pham du lich Khao sdt ciia nhdm tac gia cho thd'y, dd thiic day chi tieu cao hdn nCfa cua khdch du lich. cac nghien ciiM ve chi tieu cua khdch du Ben canh dd, cac dia phUdng cd the chii ddng phdt lich tai Viet Nam mdi dijfng d cd'p dia trien ke't ca'u ha tang vd san pham theo dac diem cua phu'dng hoac cdp vung, chifa cd danh gia dia phu'dng va ti^ dd tac dong de'n xu hifdng chi tieu chung d ca'p qud'c gia; cd cau chi tieu diidc ciia khdch du iich. Cu the, mii'c chi tieu binh qudn mdt the hien qua cdc bang thdng ke cd ban, ngay/khach phan dnh mu'c dd thu nhdp ciia ngu'di ddn bieu dd hinh cot va hinh trdn ddn gian.
dia phu'dng, tii do ddng gdp cho kinh te dia phifdng. Cac nghien cu'u nay cung chu'a su: dung Ddng thdi, mu'c chi tieu binh quan mdt ngay/khach cdc cdng cu phan tich thdng ke mdi, phia cung phan dnh xu hu'dng chi tieu cua khdch difa trdn hdp vdi dac diem cua thdng ke du lich.
ddc diem va cdc san pham du lich ciia dia phifdng. Chung tdi sii dung phifdng phdp CODA Miic chi binh quan mdt ngay cang cao se cdng tot cho de xdc dinh cac yeu td chinh anh hifdng kinh te dia phifdng. ' den cd cau chi tieu. Day Id lan dau tidn
•TS., " T h S . , " ' T h S . , TrUdng Dai hoc ThUdng mai
phifdng phdp nay difdc s^ dung trong ddnh gia ve Cd cd'u chi tieu cua khach du lich tai Viet Nam. Cdc danh gid difdc minh hpa tren sd lidu chi tieu cua khdch du hch ndi dia tai 30 tinh, thanh phdtijf bp sdlieu dieu tra chi tieu cua khdch du licli 2013 (Dieu tra chi tieu ciia khdch du lich ndi dia dUdc tien hanh trong cac nam 2005,2009,2013 vd 2017. Tuy nhien, do khd khan trong de'p can sd lieu, nen nghien cu\i siif dung sdlieu nam 2013).
PHUtfNG PHAP NGHIEN CLfU Phrfdng phap CODA
Gan day, Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sU (2015,2016a,2016b, 2017,2018)da phat trien phUdng phap CODA va dp dung vao phan tich cd cd'u chi tieu ciia khach du lich. PhUdng phdp CODA dUdc minh hpa qua cac dang bieu do mdi: bieu do tam giac (ternary) va bieu do cdy phdn Idp (Dendogram) bang phan td day nhi phdn (sequential binary partidon, SBP) de minh hpa cd'u tnic chi tieu. Ddng thdi, md hinh hdi quy dtfa tren dii lieu da hdp cung difdc phdt trien, diia trdn hdi quy tuye'n tinh theo phUdng phap binh phUdng be nhd't (OLS). TU dd, dUa dd'n cdc nghien cdu sdu ve anh hudng ciia ca'u tnic chi tieu den bie'n quan tam (vi du GDP cua mot qud'c gia) va anh hu'dng cua cdc nhdn to khdc dd'n cd cd'u chi tieu binh quan mdt ngay.
Phifdng phap nay dUdc ddnh gid la mdi vd cho ke't qua kha chinh xdc khi nghien culi xem xet nhieu yeu to anh hu'dng den cd cd'u chi tieu cd'p qud'c gia, gdm ca dia diem du lich, ngudn thdng tin trUdc khi du lich va dac diem nhan khau hpc cua khach du Hch.
CODA dUdc the hidn qua bang phan td day nhi phdn, mdt vec td da hdp S gdm D ty trong dUdc bieu didn trong sidu phang S°:
S0= (s = (S,,S..,S^):S^>0,j = 1,2,..., D: £ 5 ^ = - ^ }
j=i
Trong dd, kj- hieu la chuyen vj ciia vec td S va tdng cdc ty trpng cua vec td S bang 1 hoac 100%. Vi md'i quan he phu thudc giu'a cdc ty trpng. td'c la tdng bang 1, cac md hinh hoi quy thdng thUdng se khong dUdc ap dung. Phep toan ty le logarit danj cU (isometric log-ratio, ILR) chuyen doi D ty irpng trong sidu phang ve vec to gdm D- i toa dd trong khdng gian Euclide thdng thudng (Egozcue vd cdng sU, 2003).
BAtiG 1: VI Pg PHAN TO DAY MH! NGQYEM (SBP) TROt^G SIEG PHANG S"
s,
1 1 0
s,
1 -1 0
s, -!
0 1
S^
-1 0 -1
Y nghia Phanto {Sj.Sj} va {S3, S J
Phan to S, va S, Phan to S3 va S^
Phep bie'n ddi ILR dUa tren tpa dO cdn bang (balance coordinates) tif phdn td day nhi nguyen (sequential binary partition, SBP) ciia D ty trpng. Cu the:
Budc 1: Tpa dp can bdng thii nhd't dUdc phan thanh 2 nhdm khdng trung nhau: nhdm tii* sd' va nhdm mdu sd', ky hieu la 1 vd - 1 .
Budc 2: Tifng nhdm nhd tren dUdc tid'p tuc phdn td thanh hai toa bp cdn bang, kf hidu 1 vd -1. Nhdm nhd khdng dUdc phdn td ki hieu la 0. Vi du ciia phan td day nhi nguyen ciia sieu phang 4 chieu cd vec td dUdc thd hidn d Bang 1.
TUdng u'ng vdi vi du phan td day nhi nguyen (SBP) d Bang I, phep bie'n ddi ILR tUdng iing, gdm 3 toa dp la:
ILR, ; ILR^ = i^ln -^; ILR^ = U-h
Khi dd, nhu mieu ta trong Bang 1, tpa dp chiJa thdng tm so sdnh sd thay ddi giiia phan td {S,, S^} va {S3, S^}. TUdng tu, ILR^ (tUdng tU ILR^ chtia thdng tin so sanh ty S^ va S-, (tUdng tU S^ va S^). Nghien cii'u Pawlowsky-Glahn va Buccianti (2011) chiing minh phep bie'n doi ILR cd anh xa ngUdc, td'c la cd the lay nghich dao cua ILR de dat cdc gid tri ty trpng tUdng ting trong sieu phang. Sau qua trinh bie'n ddi, cdc gia tn ILR cd the ddng vai trd la bidn phu thudc hoac bie'n ddc Idp trong md hinh hdi quy thdng thUdng. Vi du ddn gian la md hinh hdi quy tuye'n tinh theo phUOng phap binh phifdng tdi thieu (OLS). Giai thich y nghTa cua he sd' hdi quy cd thd dUdc giai thich gian tie'p, tiic la sU tdc ddng cua bien ddc lap len cdc bie'n ILR (Muller va cdng sii, 2016; Dumuid vd cdng sif, 2018), hoac cd the giai thich trifc tie'p, tdc la sif tac ddng ciia bid'n ddc Idp Idn tiing ty trong trong sieu phang (Morals vd cdng sU,2018).
Dong thdi, khi sif dung phan td day nhi nguyen (SBP), bieu dd cay phan Idp (CoDa-Dendogram) dUdc ap dung de so sdnh cac thd'ng ke cd ban giiia cdc phdn td.
So' lieu didu tra chi tidu cua khach du lich noi dia Nghidn cu'u dUa tren sd' lieu dieu tra chi tidu ciia khach du lich dUdc Tdng cue Thdng ke dieu tra thang 07/2013. Bd sd heu gdm ca khdch du lich ndi dia (24.139 lu'ot khach) tai 30 tinh, didnh phd trifc thudc Trung Udng va khdch qudc te' de'n Viet Nam (9.500 lifdt khach) tai 14 tinh, thanh. Bd sd lieu thu thap chi tidu ciia khdch tu sap xe'p di va khach di theo tour.
Nghien cUu nay ban che'tren khach du lich ndi dia tU sap xep di (17.218 lUdt khach).
Phid'u dieu tra du lich thu thdp thdng tin vd nhan khau hpc ciia khdch du hch, bao gdm: nhdm hidi, gidi tinh.
27
BAMG 2: PHAM TO D A Y NHI MGUYEN (SBP) TROMG SIEG P H A N G P H A M MUC CHI 'nEG S = (S^ ^ ^ , S^^, S^
s....
1 1 0
S T ™ ^
1 1 0
Sf^d - i
0 1
s*™™-.*- 1 0 1
. s , )
Y ngbia
Pti3n tg {S^^„^„^ S^^,^,} va {S,^^, S^^^^^^J Phant6'S^^„^,,^^vaS.,._^^,^i Phan id S^^^ vi* S^^^^^^^^^„
Nguon Tong hdp c 3 tac gia
muc dich chuyen di, cdc ngudn thdng tin tham khao de quyet dinh chuye'n di va miic dp hai long trong chuyd'n di. Ddc biet, dieu tra chii trpng vao chi tieu cua tifng khoan muc ciia khach du lich nhU muc dich ciia cudc didu d-a. Trong dd, phUdng phdp long hdp sd lieu dUdc dp dung theo phUdng phdp binh qudn. Cu the:
Sd ngay d lai binh qudn _ Tong sd ngay khach d lai 1 lUdt khach - Tdng sd khach Chi deu binh qudn _ Tdng so lien chi tieu cua khach
1 lUdt khach = Tdng sd khach Chi lieu binh qudn Chi lieu binh quan 1 lUdt khdch
1 ngay khdch " sd ngay d lai binh quan 1 lUdt khdch Cdc chi phi trong chuye'n du lich dUdc chia thdnh each khoan muc chinh: (1) Chd d (Accomodation);
(2) An udng (Food); (3) Di lai (Travel); (4) Chi phi tham quan; (5) Chi phi mua hang hda, qua lifu niem, ky niem; (6) Chi phi dich vu van hda, the thao, giai tri;
(7) Chi phi mua thuo'c chila benh, dich vu y te'; (8) Chi khac. DUa vdo thd'ng ke cd ban ciia chi tidu binh quan 1 ngay khach va chi tieu binh qudn tUng khoan muc 1 ngay/khdch, nghien ciiu gdp chung cdc khoan muc (4) dd'n khoan muc (8) va gpi chung la khoan muc chi cho cac hoat ddng (Activity). Mdc chi tieu blnh qudn 1 ngay/khach cho tCfng khoan muc dUdc tinh tu'dng tif nhu chi tieu binh quan 1 ngay/khach. Tii do, cd ca'u chi binh quan 1 ngay khdch cho tUng khodn muc (ddn vi:
%, phan trdm) dUdc xdc dinh nhu sau:
Chi tieu binh quan I ngay/khach = S^ ^ ^ + ^F d + s„.„, + s„,.,„
_ Tien chd d (Accomodation) * 100 Chi tieu binh qudn 1 ngay/khach
(%)
Tien an udng (Food) * 100
-(%) -(%)
Food Q]^i (jgu i^-jj^h qudn 1 ngdy/khdch _ Tien cdc boat ddng (Activity) '*' 100 Ac..v.ti- (^i^i jjgy ^-jjjjj qugjj 1 ngay/khach Cdch phdn chia cac khoan muc chi tieu nhu trdn ciing tlidng tif cdc nghien culi khach tren the' gidi khi nghien cu\i ve cd ca'u chi tieu cua khach du lich (Ferrer - Rosell vd Coenders, 2018; Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sU, 2015; Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sif, 2016; Ferrer - Rosell Coenders, 2017).
Nhdm muc dich nghien cu'u chi tie't cdc khoan muc
dia di theo hinh thu'c tu sdp xep. chiem khoang 78,4% sd khach ndi dia dU^c didu tra. Hinh thUc di du lich tif sap xep cd nhieu ifu diem so vdi hinh thiic di tiieo tour. Tuy nhien, so' lidu dieu tra du lich qua cac nam cho tha'y, ludng khach di theo tour dang cd xu hUdng lang do boat ddng cua cac cdng ty Iff hdnh dUdc cai thien ve chat lUdng va gid ca. Xu hUdng khach dl theo tour ciing thuan ldi hdn cho sU lien ke't giiia cdc nganh nghd va cd sd dd'n^hoat ddng du lich.
Ung dung CODA trong didu tra chi tidu cua khach du lich ndi dia
Dd'i vdi tiing khach du lich, vec td ty trpng chi tieu binh qudn 1 ngay/khach cho tffng khoan muc, tdc la S = (la mot thanh phan cua sieu phang Diia vao cdc nghien cffu tnfdc (lich (Ferrer - Rosell va Coenders, 2018; Ferrer - Rosell vd cdng sU, 2015; Ferrer - Rosell va cdng sii, 2016; Ferrer-Rosell Coenders, 2017), phdn td ddy nhi nguydn dffdc minh boa trong Bang 2. Trong dd, phan to va thd hien xu hffdng chi tieu khodn muc Hnh ddng va khoan muc cd ban (ttfc la An - O theo vdn hda cua ngffdi Viet Nam).
Cdc phdn td tiep theo phdn chia nhd tffng khoan muc d tren.
Ung vdi vi du phan td day nhi nguyen (SBP) d Bang 2, phep bidn ddi ILR tffdng ffng, gdm 3 bleu thffc la:
ry {S~J~^,
ILR^ = ^In -f^; ILR^ = \^ln ^ ^""^
Md hinh hdi quy da hdp (compositional regression models) xem xet cac nhan td tdc ddng de'n cd cd'u chi tieu, gdm 3 md hinh hdi quy mye'n tinh tffdng iJng vdi 3 bie'n ddi ILR va cdc bie'n ddc lap trong cdc md hinh la gid'ng nhau. Cu the:
ILR, = a , + i ^ , X , + e,, (1)
ILRl = a]^E/l,K'^^,,
Trong dd, X bao gdm: Cdc dac diem nhan khau hpc cua khach du lich (nhdm tudi, gidi tinh, nghd nghiep); Muc dich chuyd'n di; Phffdng tien di chuyen; So lan tham quan; Ngudn thdng tin tham khao; Mffc dd an tffdng vd hai long trong chuye'n di.
Cac tac gia Muller va cdng sff (2016), Dumuid vd cdng sff (2018) da chffng
BAMG 3: DAC DIEM CHGNG CGA KHACH DG LICH MOI DIA THEO HINH THCTC T^ TGC Dacdi^m
Chi tidu binh quan I ngay idiach (nghin dSng)
Nh6mtu5i{%)
Gidi dnh (%)
Muc dich ciia chuydn di (%)
Tre em dif3i 3 tu^i (%) Nguon thong tin tham khao de quyet dmh chuyen dl (%) Solu^dngdacdiem
CO an tifdng tot
Tong so quan sat
Tu-15 de'n 24 ludi Tii 25 den 34 tuoi TCr 35 den 44 tuoi Til 45 den 54 tuoi Tren 54 tuoi
NO Nam Hpinghi, hoi thao Tham ho hang, ban be
Du lich nghi ngdi, tham quan, vui chOi
giii tri Thu'dng mai Muc dich khac
Khong cd Co Ban be, ngu'di than
Internet Gifitri
17.218 1.241,4 (987,3) 8,6 32,6 32,8 16,9 9,1 39,0 61,0 13,5 10,8 56.9 7,2 11,7 87,1 12,9 51,4 11,7 1.6(1)
D^c di^m So ngay d lai binh quan 1
lu'dt khach (ngay)
Nghe nghiep (%)
Lan thiJ may den tinh/
ihanh pho nay (%)
Phu'Ong tien chinh trong chuyen di
Hai Icng vcB chuyeti di (%) So lu'dng nguon tham kiiao thong tm de quyet
dinh chuyen di
Dac di^m in tifdng 8 cac diem tham quan, du
lich (%)
Nha doanh nghiep Cong chi?c, vien chu'c nha nu'dc
Cong nhan HUU tri Nong dSn va nghe nghiep khac
Lan 1 Lan 2 Tir 3 lan trd ten
Mdy bay 6 to
T.„«,
PhUdng tien khac Khong
Cd
Phong canh dep Thai do ciia ngu'di dSn ncfi de'n
du lich Chat lUdng phuc vii tai cac
diem tham quan
2,7 ( 2,2 ) 15,4 36,6 11,2 6,6 30,2 32,9 32,5 34,6 i4,6 65,1 7,7 12,6 5,0 95,0 1,2(0,5) 57,4 24,4 34,3 Ghi chii Bdi vdi cdc bien lien tuc, thd'ng ke gom g
rac. gid tn lUOng iing td ty le phdn tram.
nguyen (SBP), Hen quan de'n cdng thffc chuydn ddi ILR, la bd't bien vdi ke't qua hdi quy tuye'n tinh. Cu the, tham sd' tff do (a) vd cdc kiem dinh mu'c dp phii hdp ciia md hinh (quality of fit) khdng phu thudc vao viec Iffa chpn ILR khi dp dung phffdng phap phan tich giai^ thich true tiep cdc he sd cua md hinh hdi quy.
Cdc tinh toan trong nghien ciiXi nay dUdc tien hanh tren phan mdm Rsmdio, phien ban 3.6.1. Nghien ctiu sff cac dung gdi dii lieu compositions, robCompositions, ggplot2 va tidyverse trong phan mem Rstudo.
KET QUA NGHIEN CU'U
Dac diem cd ban cua khach du lich ndi dia di theo hinh thii'c tif tuc
' Bdn2 3 the hien ddc diem chung ciia khdch du lich ndi dia theo hinh thffc tU tuc Co 17.218 khdch noi dia trong nghien cffu nay. Chi tieu binh qudn 1 ngay khach
7 trung binh vd lech chuan (irong ngoac) Do'i vdi cdc bie'n rdi Nguon Tmh loan tu =16 iieu thong ke
la 1.241 nghin ddng. Tmng binhl Iffpt khdch d lai dia diem du lich la 2,7 ngay. Nhdm tudi du lich chu yd'u la tff 25 de'n 34 tuoi vd 35 de'n 44 tudi vd hai nhdm tudi nay cd ty Id tffdng ddi bang nhau. Khdch du lich chu ye'u la nam gidi vd ty Id nam gidi gan gd'p ddi nff gidi.
Nhdm nghe nghiep cdng nhdn vidn chffc chie'm 36,6%
vd nhieu nhd't trong cdc nganh nghe. Xu hffdng ndy diing vdi phong trao du lich do cdng doan cdc cO quan dffng ra td chffc hang nam vdo dip he (thang 7). Trong cdc muc dich du lich, muc dich nghi ngdi, tham quan va vui chdi giai tri chiem nhieu nha't. Ty Id ngffdi du lich cd tre em dffdi 3 tudi chid'm ty le nhd (12,9%), nen nhdm tac gia gia thie't ty le tre em khdng dnh hffdng dd'n kd't qua nghien cffu.
Trffdc chuye'n di du lich, khdch du lich se tham khao tren 1 ngudn thdng tin (dUa tren 6 ngudn thdng tm: ban be, ngUdi than; sdch, bdo, tap chi; internet; cdng ty du lich; tivi; dUdc mdi). Trong do, ngudn tham khao phd bien nhd't la tU ban be vd ngffdi than. Hau he't khach du Iich (95%) hai Idng vdi chuyd'n di.
Tuy nhidn, trong 5 dac diem d'n tffdng tai diem tham quan (phong canh dep; thdi dp cua ngffdi ddn ndi de'n du lich, chd't Iffdng phuc vu cua cdc co sd luu tru, chd't
29
BANG 4; HE SO HOI QUY CQA MO HltiH DA H0P (1) TddNG dNG Vfll BIEN ILR Bien anh hifdng
He s6 hSi quy He so' it/ do
Muc dich chuyen di (mac dinh. Hoi ngh), hoi thao]
Lan thd may den iinh (mac dinh: U n 1) Tham khao ihong iin tir dau ?
Phu'dng tien chinh uong chuyen dl (Mac dinh' May bay) An tu'<Jng phong canh dep
(mac dmh: Khong)
Tham hp hang, ban 66 Duhch nghi ngdi, tham t|uan. vui chdi giai tri
Thu'dng mat Cac muc dich khac
Lan 2 L;1n thi?3 trd len
Internet Ban be, ngifSi thSn
6 to Phu'dng tien khac
Tau hoa Cd He soR bmlt pfnUIng
h^ chinh
ILR, chuS'n ciia hg s(^h6iqi^
-1,16'*"
0.27 **
0,24 ***
0,08 0,19***
-0,02 -0,07 * 0.15***
0,05*
-0,07 , -0,25 ***
-0,05 0,08 **
H$so h6i quy 0,09 0.05 0,04 0,05 0,05 0,03 0,03 0,04 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,05 0,03 0,039
ILR, DO l^ch chu^n cua h$
sS* hoi quy -1,53***
0,41 ***
0,44 ***
-0,03 0,2*
0,03 -0,1 , 0,21 **
0,08 0,47***
0,63 ***
0,51 ***
0,21 **•"
hgi quy -0,18
-0.1 -0,07 -0.1 -0,09 -0,06 -0,06 -0,07 -0,05 -0,07 -0,1 -0,1 -0,05 0,034
ILRj D9 l^ch chu^n cua h^s6^hSiquy
-0.43 *"=*
0.05 ***
0,17***
0.08 ***
0.05 ***
0 0 0.03 **
0,03 ***
0.07 ***
0,12***
0,05 **
0.04 ***
H^so hSi quy -0.03 -0.02 -0,01 0,02 0,01 0.01 0,01 0,01 -0,01 -0,01 -0,02 -0,02 -0,01 0,177 Miic do y nghTa *10%. **5%, ***!%.
Iffdng phuc vu tai cdc diem tham quan, hang hda re), khach du lich chi hai long trung binh 1 de'n 2 dac diem.
Ddc biet, phong canh dep la ddc didm dffdc an tffdng nha't cija khdch. Ket qua mieu ta cO ban cua so lieu cho thd'y can nang cao chd't Iffdng cd sd liAi tru, phuc vu tai cac diem tham quan hdn nu'a.
Anh hrfdng cua did'm dd'n dd'n crf ca'u chi tieu So' lieu thd'ng ke cua Tdng cue Thd'ng ke da cho thd'y, cac tinh cd mffc chi tidu binh qudn 1 ngay/khach cao nha't la Khanh Hda (1.753 ngan ddng), Quang Ninh (1.800 ngdn ddng) va TP. Ho Chi Minh (1.712 ngan ddng). Tinh cd mffc chi ddu binh quan 1 ngdy/
khdch thd'p nha't la VTnh Long (503 ngan ddng). Thai Binh (666 ngdn ddng).
Ve cd ca'u chi tieu, tai hau he't cdc tinh, chi tieu cho Hoat ddng chie'm ty trong Idn nhd't (tren 30%). Tie'p theo, ty trpng chi tieu cho Chd d vd An ud'ng chie'm vi tri thff 2 ttly theo tffng tinh, thdnh phd'. Chi tieu cho Di lai chie'm ty trpng thd'p nha't d td't ca cac tinh, thanh phd va chid'm khoang 10%-20%. Xu hudng chi tidu d trdn the hien sff da dang cdc dich vu du lich d cac tinh, thanh phd khi chi tieu cho cac boat ddng chiem ty trong Idn nhat. _ _ , ,
Trong khi do, chi tieu cho Chd d va An udng vdn chie'm ty trpng cao, vi do la hai khoan muc co ban nhat cua mot chuye'n tham quan. Chi ddu cho Di lai chiem ty trpng tha'p nha't tUdng ffng vdi xu hffdng cua khach ndi dia va phffdng tien di chuyen chii ye'u la xe d td.
Ngui
Cac ye'u to' anh h\Sdng dd'n crf cS'u chi tidu
Lu'a chpn cac ye'u td' anh hffdng de'n CO ca'u chi deu dffdc tie'n hanh thdng qua md hinh hdi quy tffng bUdc (a stepwise regression analysis) ket hdp vdi phuong phap lUa chpn loai bo (backward selection). Dau tidn, nhdm nghien cffu dUa vao md hinh hdi quy toan bd d Bang 3 va loai bd lan Iffdt tffng bie'n, nd'u bie'n dd khdng cd y nghia (tffc la p-value nhd hPn 0,05). Ket qua hdi quy dffOc the hidn d Bang 4 vdi ta't ca cac he so hdi quy deu cd y nghia. Hd so R- hieu chinh (dffdc the hidn d ddng cud'i ciing ciia Bang 4).
He so'nay tffdng dd'i nhd va ciing theo xu hffdng cua cac md hinh hdi quy da hdp cua Muller vd cdng sff, 2016; Dumuid vd cdngsff, 2018.
Nhff vdy, cd 6 ye'u td' cd anh hffdng c6 y nghTa thd'ng ke de'n cO cau chi tidu cua khach du lich ndi dia, gdm: (i) Muc dich chuydn di; (ii) Sd'lan du lich tai diem den;
(iii) Tham khao thdng tin tff ban be, ngffdi than; (iv) Tham khao thdng tin tff intemet;
(v) PhUdng tien chinh trong chuyen di; va (vi) Si/an tffdng td't vdi phong canh dep tai diem tham quan du lich.
Muc dich chuye'n di cd anh hffdng ra't Idn va y nghia de'n cd cau chi tieu cua khdch ndi dia. So sanh vdi khdch di du lich vdi muc dich tham dff hdi nghi, hdi thdo, khach di du lich vdi cac muc dich thdm ho hang, ban be du lich nghi ngdi, tham quan va vui chdi giai tri, thffdng mai va cac muc dich khdc cd xu hffdng tang chi tieu ty le chi deu cho khoan muc Hoat ddng - Di lai so vdi Thu'c an - An udng. Chi tie't hdn, so sanh giffa hai phan td, khach di du lich khdng du lich vdi muc dich tham dff hdi nghi, hdi thao cd xu hudng chi tieu nhieu cho khoan muc Hoat ddng hdn khoan muc Di lai va ddng thdi chi tieu nhieu hdn cho_khoan muc An ud'ng hdn khodn muc Chd d.
Vdi cdc khach ndi dia dd'n dia diem du lich tff lan thff 3 trd len so vdi khdch de'n dia diem lan ddu, hp cd xu hffdng giam chi tidu cho nhdm An udng va Chd d va tdng chi tieu cho nhdm Hoat dong - Di lai. Khdng cd sff khdc biet giffa cdc phdn td tie'p theo.
Khach du hch da tham khao ban be, ngffdi than va internet cd xu hUdng ngUdc vdi khdch du lich dd tiing tham gia nhieu lan.
khach van tang ty le chi tieu cho Hoat ddng - Di lai trong khi giam mffc chi cho Chd d va An ud'ng. Ddc diem nay rat^quan tt-png, cho thd'y khach du lich_cd tim hieu tnldc diem de'n da cd kd'hoach td't hdn cho chd d va thudng thffc cac mdn dn dac san vdi gia hdp ly, hoac giam cdc chi phi An ud'ng va Chd d de danh nhieu hdn cho Hoat ddng.
KET L U A N
Nghien cffu da tap trung phdn tich cdc ye'u to anh hffdng den cd cd'u chi tieu ciia khach du hch ndi dia di theo hinh thffc tU tuc nam 2013. Nghien cffu cho tha'y, dac diem nhan khiu hpc khdng cd y nghTa thd'ng ke den cd ca'u chi tidu. Cdc yeu to cd y nghia thdng kd dd'n cd ca'u chi tieu ciia khach la: Dia diem den; Muc dich chuye'n di; Cac ngudn thdng tin tham khao trffdc chuye'n di; Sp lan tham quan diem dd'n; Phffdng tidn di chuyen;
va An tffdng phong canh ciia die'm dd'n. Trong dd, Muc dich chuye'n di the Men sff khdc biet va dao ddng Idn de'n cd cd'u chi tieu. Qua do cho tha'y, can tang them cac hoat ddng giai tri de kich thich chi tieu. Nghien cffu cd tinh thdi sff hdn nd'u dffdc tie'n hanh trdn sd' lieu cap nhat hdn.
Nghien cii^i nay ndn tid'p tuc phat tnen vdi khach qudc te' den Vidt Nam va cd the so sanh cdc ddc diem ciia khach qud'c td'vd ndi dia de dinh hffdng chid'n thudc thu hut khach du lich cua cdc dia diem.Q
TAILIEU THAM KHAO __
1. Tdng cue Thd'ng ke (2013). Quyi't dinh sd650/QD-TCTK, ngdy 25/06/2013 ve viec tien hanh Dieu tra chi tieu eua khdch du hch ndm 2013 vd PhUc/ng dn Dieu tra chi tiiu cua khdch du lich ndm 2013
2. Tong cue Thdng kd (2014). Ke't qud diiu tra chi tieu cua khdch du lich 2013, Nxb Thd'ng ke 3. Dumuid, D., Stanford, T.E., Martin - Fernandez, J.A., Pedisic, Z., Maher, C.A., Lewis, L.K., Hron, K., Katzmarzyk, P.T., Chaput, J.P., Fogelholm, M. and Hu, G. (2018). Compositional data analysis for physical activity, sedentary time and sleep research. Statistical methods in medical research, 27(12), 3126-313S
4. Egozcue, J.J., Pawlowsky-Glahn, V , Mateu-Figueras, G. and Barcelo-Vidal, C. (2003). Isometric logratio transformations for compositional data analysis. Mathematical Geology, 35(3), 279-300
5. Ferrer-Rosell, B., Coenders, G. and Martinez-Garcia, E. (2015). Determinants in tounst expendimre composition - The role of airline types. Tourism Economics, 21(1), 9-32
6. Ferrer - Rosell, B., Coenders, G., Mateu - Figueras, G. and Pawlowsky -Glahn, V. (2016a).
Understanding low-cost airline users' expenditure patterns and volume, Tourism Economies, 22(2), 269-291
7. Ferrer - Rosell, B., Coenders, G. and Martinez - Garcia, E. (2016b). Segmentation by tourist expenditure composition: an approach with compositional data analysis and latent classes. Tourism analysis, 21(6), 5S9-602
8. Ferrer - Rosell, B. and Coenders, G. (2017). Airline type and tourist expenditure: Are full service and low cost carriers converging or diverging?. Journal of Air Transport Management, 63, 119'125
9. Ferrer- Rosell, B. and Coenders, G. (2018), Destinations and crisis. Profiling tourists' budget share from 2006 to 2012, Journal of destination marketing & management, 7, 26-35
10. Morals, J., Thomas - Agnan, C. and Simioni, M. (2018). Using compositional and Dirichlet models for market share regression. Journal of Applied Statistics, 45(9), 1670-1689
11. Muller, I., Hron, K., Fiserova, E., Smahaj, J., Cakirpaloglu, P. and Yancakovd, J. (2016).
Interpretation of compositional regression with application to time budget analysis, arXiv preprint arXiv:1609.07887
] 2. Pawlowsky - Glahn, V. and Buccianti, A. (2011). Compositional data analysis, Wiley
