Cac nhan to anh hifong den tfnh thanh khoan cua cac doanh nghiep che bien g6 tren dia ban
tinh Binh Dinh
TS. VSn Thi Tha Thu, Nguy&i Anh Diic H o ^ Thj Thfio Ly. Nguygn Thi NSm, L6 MOng Kidu
1. Co sdiy thuyet
Tinh thanh khodn, mdt khdi nifim trong tai chinh, chi mfle dfl md mdt tai sdn bat ky ed thd dupc mua hoae ban tifin thi trudng ma khdng Iam dnh hudng ddn gia Ui thi trudng eua tdi sdn dd. Mflt tai sdn gpi la thanh khodn khi ma thj trudng cfla tdi sdn dd cd niiidu ngudi mua vd ngudi bdn. Mdt tai san ed tinh thanh khoan cao thudng dupc dae trung \xn so lupng giao djch Idn. Tdi sdn ed tinh thanh khodn cang cao thi muc dfl rfli ro cang thap.
Trong kd todn, tdi sdn ngan han dupc chia thanh nhidu loai khde nhau vd dupe xdp theo tinh thanh khodn tu cao dfi'n thdp. Trong dd, tidn cd tinh thanh khodn cao nhdt, ludn ludn dflng dupc dd thanh toan trirc tidp, Iuu thdng, tich trfl. Cdn hang tdn kho cd tinh thanh khodn thdp so vdi cdc tdi sdn ngdn hgn khac vi phai ti'di qua giai doan phan phdi vd Ufiu thu chuydn thdnh khodn phdi thu, rdi tu khoan phdi thu sau mdt thin gian mdi ehuydn thdnh tidn mat.
Theo Home va David (1968), thanh khoan cd thd dupc didn td nhu kha nang nhan ra gid tri cua phuang lifin dupc ehdp nhdn trong sy tiao ddi. Ld phuang Ufin dupc chap nhan dd trao ddi, Udn la tdi sdn thanh khodn cao nhdt vd eflng Id mdt chudn myc cho vific kidm sodt gia tri cfla cac logi tdi sdn khde dupc so sdnh nhu mue dfl Uiay the cua nd. Ngodi ra, theo Home va David cd hai thudc do vd mflc dd thanh khoan: mdt Id, thdi gian can Uiidt dd chuydn ddi tdi sdn Uidnh tien; hai Id, sy chac chan cfla gid thuc hifin, tiic la su dn dinh cfla ty lfi tiao ddi gifla Udn va tdi sdn.
Nhd ddu hJ cd Uid hidu dupc khd nang Uianh khodn bang cdch phdn tich cdc bao edo tai chinh efla mdt edng ty. Cdc chi tifiu tdi chinh sau duoc yfiu eau phdi xdc dinh dupc dd cd thd ddnh gid khd nang thanh khoan cua mflt cdng ty: ty sd thanh toan hifin hanh, ty sd thanh todn nhanh, ty sd thanh todn tuc thdi vd chu ky ehuydn ddi Udn mat. Trong dd nhdm tdc gid da lua dipn hai chi tifiu Id ty sd thanh todn hifin hdnh vd chu ky chuyen ddi Udn mat dd do ludng tinh thanh khodn cua doanh nghidP-
Trfin ca sd kd thua cdc nghifin cflu trudc day, cd su
chpn Ipc vd hieu chinh cho phfl hpp vdi vdn dd cdn nghifin cuu, nhdm tdc gid dua ra ede nhan td dnh hudng den tfnh thanh khodn cua doanh nghifip vdi ede gid thiet:
Old thiet 1: Cde doanh nghiep chd bidn gd tien dja bdn Unh Binh Dinh ed quy mfl cdng Idn thi tinh Uianh khodn eao han cac doanh nghifip cd quy md nhd.
Gid thiet 2: Cac doanh nghifip chd bidn gd trfin dja ban tinh Binh Djnh cd khoan myc np ngdn han eao thi ti'nh thanh khoan thdp hon so vdi cac docinh nghifip cd np ngdn hgn thap hon.
Gid thldt 3: Cdc doanh nghifip chd bidn gd trfin dja bdn Unh Binh Dinh cd sd vdng quay hang tdn kho cdng Idn thi Unh thanh khodn cao hon cdc doanh nghifip cd sd vdng quay hdng tdn kho nhd.
Gid thiet 4: Cac doanh nghifip ehe bidn gd tifin dia ban tinh Binh Djnh cd sd vdng quay cde khodn phdi thu cang ldn thi tinh thanh khodn cao hem ede do<inh nghidp cd sd vdng quay cde khodn phdi Uiu nhd.
Gid thidt 5: Cdc doanh nghifip chd bidn gd trfin dia ban tinh Binh Dinh cd ROA cdng ldn thi tinh thanh khodn cao hon cdc doanh nghifip cd ROA thap.
Gid thiet 6: Cdc doanh nghifip chd bien gd tifin dia bdn tinh Binh Dinh ed vdn luu ddng rdng edng cao thi tinh thanh khodn cao hon cdc doanh nghiep ed vdn luu dflng rdng thdp.
2. Phmmg phap nghien cihi
Ddi tugng nghifin euu tap tiring vao cdc doanh nghifip chd bidn gd trfin dia bdn Unh Binh Dinh. Tinh ddn cudi nam 2014, trfin dia ban tinh Binh Djnh cd hon 100 doanh nghifip ehd bidn gd vd lam san. Do khd nang edn cd hgn chd nfin vdi yfiu eau chpn mau bao gdm cac bdo cdo tdi chinh nam 2013 cfla cdc doanh nghifip chd bidn gd trfin dja bdn tinh Binh Dinh, ddng thdi logi tni cdc doanh nghifip cd bdo edo tai ehinh khdng dgt yfiu edu nfin cudi cflng sd mdu duac chpn Id 30 doanh nghifip chd bidn gd. Sd phidu phdt la 90 phieu, sd phieu thu vd la 90 phieu.
Nhdm tdc gid su dung md hinh hdi quy tuydn ti'nh bdi Iheo phuong phdp binh phuang nhd nhdt (OLS)
Tt CHAU A -THAI I
37
NGHliN CIJU
vdi sy hd tip eua phdn mdm SPSS 16.0 dd nghifin cuu cac nhdn td dnh hucmg eua mdi bidn gidi thieh tinh thanh khodn thdng qua ehi Ufiu ty sd thanh toan hifin hdnh vd ehu ky chuydn ddi tidn mat. Md liinh hdi quy tuydn Unh dupc sfl dung dd kidm dinh cde gid thidt dupc ddt ra d tien.
Md hinh hdi quy tdng thd ed dgng sau:
Y - pX+1 Trongdd;
Y : Vector biSn phu thuOc B: Vector hSs6 hdi quy X : Ma trSnbi&id^l^ ciia mdhinh
£ : vector sai sd n ^ a nhite
Bilail$c%
Bi£nph9
Binf; 1: C i c b i l n quan sat N b S a t o Quy mo doanb ngbigt N ^ n g S n l i v i So vong quay h^ng ton Idio S5 vong quay cac khoan phai thu ROA
Von Inu dong i&ig Ty 501^"*^* toan h i ^ hanh fKuil Chu ky' cfanym doi den m j t (CCC)
Bien IDS hoa Xl X j X , X4 Xi
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Yi Y J3. Ket qua nghien cihi 3.1. Phdn tich tuong quan cdc bidn Kdt qud phan Uch cho Uidy cd sy tuang quan gifla cae bidn dde lap va hai bidn phy ttiudc ty sd thanh todn hifin hanh vd chu ky chuydn ddi tidn mdt vdi nhidu mflc dd khde nhau.
Xet muc dd tuang quan gifla ^ sd thanh todn hidn hdnh vd cdc bidn phy thudc, tfl kdt qua tifin cho thay ty sd th£inh todn hifin hdnh cd mflc dp tuong quan cao nhdt vdi bien Np ngdn han/Tdng tdi sdn Id -0,804 (tuong quan dm) va tuang quan thap nhat vdi bidn ROA la-0,10.
Xdt mfle dd tuong quan gifla ehu ky ehuydn ddi Udn mat vdi cac bidn phu thudc, kdt qua cho thdy ehu ky chuydn ddi Udn mgt cd mfle dd tuong quan eao nhdt vdi bidn vdng quay hdng tdn kho Id -0,562 va tuong quan thap nhat vdi bidn quy md la -0,014.
Kdt qud tifin cung cho thdy dupc su tuong quan gifla cdc bien dde lap vdi nhau tiong do mfle dfl tuong qucin gifla bidn Quy md vd Sd vdng quay hdng tdn kho Id eao nhdt -0,494 vd mflc dd tuong quan gifla bien Vdng quay hang tdn kho vd Vdng quay cdc khoan phdi thu Id thdp nhdt 0,032. Nhin ehung dd tuong quan giua cdc bien dfle lap khdng qud Idn, day Id ddu hifiu dy bdo khdng xay ra hien tupng da cpng tuydn.
3.2. Phan tich hdi quy bdi
Phdn tich hdi quy bdi gida ty so thanh todn hi^n hdnh uen cdc nhdn td'dnh hudng
Theo kdt qua hdi quy tu bdng 3 eho Uidy gid tii F = 52,585 ed Sig F = 0,000 < 0,05 chflng td md hinh hdi quy tuydn Unh bdi ndy phu hpp vdi tap du lifiu, tdn tgi
mue y nghia d = 0,05. Hay ndi cdch khac ly sd thanh toan hifin hanh phy ttiudc it nhdt vao mot trong sdu nhdn td: quy mfl, np ngdn han, vdng quay hdng tdn kho, vdng quay cdc khodn phdi thu, ROA vd vdn luu ddng rdng.
Theo phuor^ phdp stepwise, ket qud phdn Uch eho Uidy hfi so R2 tang ddn qua tung bude, d budc Uifl 2 R dgt 89,2%; R2 dat 79,6%; nhu vdy ed Uie ndi md hinh cd Uid gidi Uiieh 79,6% sy ttiay ddi cua ty sd Uianh todn hifin hdnh. Ket qud nay ed thd chdp nhan tiong vide nghifin eflu cdc nhdn td dnh hudng den tinh thanh khodn neu so vdi mflt sd nghifin euu trude ddy. Trong md hinh nghifin euu cfla Gill vd MaUiur (2011) hfi sd R2
= 70,8% trong md hinh hdi quy mdu la cdc doanh nghifip tiong ngdnh cdng nghidp sdn xuat Canada.
Tu cdc phan Hch tifin ta cd thd an toan kdt ludn md hinh hdi quy tuydn tfnh xdy dyng dupc phfl hgp vdi tdng the.
Ket qud cho thdy, phuong phdp stepwise dd h;
ddng logi bd eae bidn khdng phu hpp trong md hinh (cd gid tri Sig. t > 0,05). Nhu vdy, trong md hinh hdi quy cudi eung ehi cdn hai bien ducrc lya chpn la np ngdn hgn vd vdng quay hdng tdn kho vdi ede gid trj Sig.
t tucmg ung la 0,000 vd 0,000 (deu nhd hon 0.05) nfin ed thd khdng djnh edc bidn sd nay cd y nghia tiong md hinh nghifin eflu. Mat khde, bidn np ngdn hgn cd gid trj Beta mang dau am, cdn bidn vdng quay hdng tdn kho mang ddu duang. Didu ndy eho thdy rdng tdn tgi mdi quan he ngupc chidu gifla ty sd thanh todn hifin hdnh hay tinh thanh khodn vdi np ngdn hgn vd cd mdi quan hfi thudn chidu vdi vdng quay hdng tdn kho.
Kdt qua hdi quy cung eho thdy, gia tri VIF cfla edc bidn np ngdn hgn vd sd vdng quay hdng tdn kho ldn lupt id 1,140 vd 1,140 ddu nhd ban 5 nfin chua ed co sd dd bac bd gid thidt HO.
Ngodi ra, gid tii Durbin — Watson d = 1,615 (du = 1,567 < d = 1,615 < 4 — du = 2,385), ta ed ttid kdt ludn rdng khdng ed hifin tupng ty tirong quan gifla edc phdn du hay gid dinh khdng xdy ra hifin tupng ty tucmg quan dupe chap nhdn.
Md hinh nghifin cuu cd dgng nhu sau:
YI = 3,220 — 2,836X2 + 0,018X3 Hay; Khh = 3,220 — 2,836NNH + O.OISVQHTK Phdn tich hdi quy bdi gida chu ky chuyen ddi tiin mdt uai cdc nhdn td'dnh hudng.
Kdt qua hdi quy bfli cho thdy gia tri F = 13,317 cd Sig F = 0,000 < 0,05 chflng td md hinh hdi quy tiiydn tinh bdi nay phu hpp vdi tdp du lifiu, tdn tgi mflc y nghia d = 0,05. Hay ndi cdch khac chu ky chuydn ddi tidn mat phu Uiudc it nhdt vao mot tiong sdu nhdn td:
quy md, no ngdn hgn, vdng quay hang tdn kho, vdng quay cac khodn ptidi thu, ROA va vdn lm i r]png rdng.
Theo phuang phdp stepwise, ket qua pNm tich cho thdy hfi sd R2 tang ddn qua tung budc, d buPc thfl 3 R
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dgt 77,8%; R2 dgt 60,6%; nhu vdy cd Uid ndi md hinh cd Uid gidi Uu'ch 60,6% sy Uiay ddi cua ehu ky chuydn ddi Udn mat. Kdt qud ndy cd ttid chdp nhdn tiong vide nghifin eflu cdc nhan td dnh hudng den tinh thanh khoan ndu so vdi mdt s6 nghifin cuu trude day da nfiu ra tiong phdn trudc.
Tfl cac phan ti'ch trfin ta cd thd an todn ket luan md hinh hdi quy tuydn Unh xdy dyng dupe phfl hpp vdi tdng ttid.
Kdt qud eung eho thdy phuong phdp stepwise da tu ddng logi bd cae bidn khdng phfl hpp tiong md hinh (cd gia trj Sig. t > 0,05). Nhu vgy tiong md hinh hdi quy cudi cflng ehi cdn ba bidn dupc lya chpn Id sd vdng quay hdng tdn kho, sd vdng quay cdc khodn phdi thu vd quy md vdi cdc gid tri Sig. t tuong flng Id 0,000; 0,002 vd 0,029 (ddu nhd han 0.05), nfin cd thd khdng djnh cdc bien sd ndy cd y nghia trong md hinh nghifin cuu.
Mat khde, hd sd Beta cfla ede bidn vd deu mang ddu im. Didu ndy eho thdy rdng tdn tgi mdi quan hfi ngupe chieu gifla chu ky chuydn ddi ttdn mat hay tinh thanh Idiodn vdi quy md, sd vdng quay hdng tdn kho va sd vdng quay eae khodn phdi thu.
Ket qud hdi quy cflng cho ttidy, gid tin VIF eua cdc bidn np ngdn ban vd sd vdng quay hdng tdn kho Idn lupt Id 1,333; 1,014 vd 1,341 deu nhd hon 5 nfin ehua cd CO sd dd bdc bd gid thidt HO.
Ngodi ra, gid tri Durbin — Watson d = 2,334 (du = 1,650 < d = 2,334 < 4 — du = 2,350), ta ed Uid kdt ludn rdng khdng cd hifin tugng ty tuong quan gifla cac phdn du hay gid djnh khdng xdy ra hidn tupng tg tuong quan dupc chdp nhdn.
Md Wnh nghifin euu cd dgng nhu sau:
Y2 = 752,651—48,541X1 —2,578X3 — 0,382X4 Hay: CCC = 752,651 — 48,541QM — 2,578VQHTK -0,382VQKPT
4. Mot SO kien nghj
Thfl nhdt, tang eudng qudn til tin dung. D^ hgn chd nii ro, cdc cdng ty nfin xdy dyng nidt chinh sdch tin dyng ehdt chfi vdi ky hgn thanh todn hop ly dd eai thidn ddng Udn hogt ddng vd khd nang sinh Icri ddng Ihdi khdng bj mat cdc khach hdng tdt cua cdng ty. Sau day la mdt s6 vdn de md cdng ty cdn kiem sodt nhdm ndng cao chdt luong tin dyng: Tifiu chudn Un dyng, Thdi hgn bdn chiu, Chinh sdch chidt khdu, Phdn ti'ch, danh gid, theo ddi eae khoan phdi thu...
Thfl hai, hodn thifin edng tde quan tri hang tdn kho:
Bfin egnh qudn til tin dyng, qudn til hdng tdn kho Id mdt vdn dd khdng kfim phdn quan tipng. doanh nghifip eflng cdn cd nhung bifin phdp til hang tdn kho hpp ly nhu: ndm bdt rttiu cdu thi trudng, hogch dinh cung dng, Unh todn don hdng... Sau d5y Id mflt vdi bifin phdp cy thd:
- Ap dyng eae md hinh ton kho dd xac dinh lupng
hang dy tru tdi uu;
- Ap dung kd hoach du phdng dd xac dinh lupng hdng dy Utr chinh xdc;
- Ap dyng hinh thflc sdn xudt day chuydn nham gidm tdi da luong sdn pham dd dang;
- Ndm dupe nhu eau cua khdeh hang, tiie Id ndm chdc vd sd lupng sdn phdm vd thdi didm giao hang, tu dd ed ke hogeh sdn xuat hop ly, tdi uu hon;
- Ap dung ky thudt phdn tich bifin td dd quydt dinh ehinh sdeh ton kho (xdc dinh khi nao thi tang hdng, khi ndo thi khdng).
Thli ba, su dung ddn bdy np hpp ly. Doanh nghidp edn phdi xdy dyng chinh sdch huy ddng vd'n hpp ly, ddm bdo chi phi sfl dung vdn thdp nhdt, gidm thidu rui ro doanh nghifip roi vdo tinh tigng mdt cdn bang tdi chinh, hogc bi lfi ttiudc qua nhidu vdo cdc chfl np gay nguy CO mdt ty chfl vd tdi chinh, ddn ddn mdt thanh khodn, dua doanh ngtiidp ddn bd vyc phd sdn.
Thfl Ur, huy ddng vd sfl dyng vdn hifiu qud nhdm nang cao hifiu qud hoat dflng kinh doanh, md rdng quy md doanh nghidp.
Vdn dupe vi nhu la mach mdu duy tri sy sdng cua doanh nghifip, do dd, vific ndng eao hifiu qud qudn ly vdn Id mgt trong nhflng mdi quan tdm hdng dau cua doanh nghifip. Ndng cao hifiu qud sfl dung vdn sfi giup doanh nghifip md rdng dupc quy md, dd Om kidm cdc ngudn tai trp, dgt dupe myc dich tdi da hda gid tri cfla doanh nghifip, tu dd ndng cao dupc Unh thanh khodn.
Mdt sd bifin phdp nhdm ndng cao hifiu qua su dyng vdn, dd Id; kd hogch nhu cdu vd vdn, kd hogch ngudn vdn, kd hogch sfl dyng vdn theo thdi gian.
Tai lieu tham l(hao
1. Nguydn Van Cdng (2009); Gido tiinh phdn ti'ch kinh doanh; Nhd xudt bdn Dgi hpc kinh td Qudc Ddn.
2. Phan Due Dflng (2009); Phdn ti'ch bdo cdo tdi ehinh vd djnh gid doartti nghifip; Dgi hpc Qude gia Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh, Khoa Kinh te - Kd todn.
3. Bfli Kim Phuong (2013), "Chu ky chuydn ddi Udn mdt", http://ktkt.vanlanguni.edu.vn/chi-tiet-ehuyen- san/ehu-ky-chuyen-doi-tien-mat-182.
4. Truang Quang Thdng (2013); Cac nhSn td anh hudng ddn rui ro thanh khodn cua hfi thdng ngdn hdng tiiuong mgi Vifit Nam"; Tap ehi phdt tiidn kinh td, 276 5. Home, J., David, A. (1968), "The liquidity impact of debt management", Southem Economic Joumal, 34 (4), pp. 526-537
