V I l T NAM - cAl CACH VA H^l N H A P
Kinh te xanh trong do! md*! mo hinh tang triPO'ng va tai cau true nen kinh te Viet Nam
GS.TS. NGUYEN QUANG THUAN' TS. NGUYEN XUAN TRUNG"
Hgi nghj Trung uang ldn thii 3 khoa XI cua Ddng dd nhdn mgnh nhiem vu ddi m&i md hinh tdng truang. tdi cdu true nin kinh te nhdm thuc hien dinh hu&ng phdt triin ben viing cua ddt nu&c. Ddi m&i md hinh tdng truang vd tdi ca cdu nin kinh ti dugc khdng dinh Id dinh hu&ng tdng qudt cua chiin luge phdt triin kinh ti - xd hdi thai ky 2011 - 2020. Muc tieu eua viec doi m&i md hinh tdng tru&ng Id nhdm phdt trien theo chiiu sdu, tiet kiim tdi nguyen gdn v&i viec ddm bdo ndng cao cdng bdng vd tiin bd xd hgi, bdo ve mdi trucmg. phdt huy lai thi cgnh tranh ciia Viet Nam trong hdi nhdp qudc ti.
De thuc hien muc tieu ndy, chiin luge tdng tru&ng xanh cd y nhia het sue quan trgng.
Bdi viit ndy se de cap din vi tri phdt trien kinh te xanh trong md hinh tdng truang, khd ndng phdt trien vd su lua chgn hudng phdt trien kinh te xanh trong ehuyin ddi md hinh tdng trudng eua Viit Nam.
1. Khdi niem Kinh te xanh/tang tnrdng xanh Kinh tl xanh/tang trudng xanh khdng chi la sy Idng ghep vdn dl mdi trudng trong phdt tridn kinh td, ma nd da dugc hieu sdu rdng han, de cap ddn cd phdt trien cdn bdng, hdi hda giiia cdc muc tidu.
Ngdy nay, nd da dugc coi Id mgt md lunh phdt triln mdi, dugc nhidu nude ung hd vd hudng theo.
Theo Chuang trinh Mdi trudng eua Lidn hgp qude (UNEP), ndn kinh td xanh la "ndn kinh tl ndng cao ddi sdng eua con ngudi vd edi thidn cdng bdng xa hgi, ddng thdi giam thieu nhiing nii ro mdi trudng va nhiing thieu hyt sinh thdi"'.
* Vi?n Khoa hpc Xa h<ii Vi^t Nam
** Vien Nghien cita chiu My
' UNEP (2011): Huang tdi nin kinh te xanh - Lg trinh cho phdi trien ben vitng va xda doi gidm nghko, NXB.N6ng nghidp, H4N6i,tr.l3.
Cdn theo OECD, "Tang trudng xanh la thue day tang trudng va phdt trien kinh td ddng thdi ddm bao cdc ngudn tdi sdn ty nhidn tigp tuc cung cap cdc tdi nguygn vd dich vu mdi trudng thiet yeu eho eugc s6ng cua chiing ta. Yih thyc hipn didu ndy, tdng trudng xanh phdi la nhdn td xiic tac trong viec dau tu vd ddi mdi, id co sd cho su tdng trudng bin vdng vd tdng cudng tgo ra cde eo hdi kinh td mdi" .
Trong Dy thdo Chidn luge tdng trudng xanh eua Viet Nam thdi ky 2011 - 2020 vd tdm nhin den 2050 eua Bd Kl hoach vd Ddu tu da dua ra
^ Trich l£ii t£t B^o cAo ciia B§ Kl hoach va Diiu w trong Wifi thao Tham vSn vl chien \\zqc tSng tru&ng xanh ciia Vi^t Nam, do VCCl, Bp K£ ho^ch v^ DSu tir v^ UNDP tai Viet Nam t6 chirc, HANOI, 19/3/2012.
[NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj TH^ Gidl S6 3(191) 2012- - 3 3
Kinh t l xanh trong d i i mdi md hlnh tdng trudng.. Nguyin Quang Thuiin - Nguyin Xudn Trung quan dilm chiln luge "Tdng trudng xanh d
Viet Nam la phuang thue thuc ddy qud trinh tdi ca cdu nin kinh tl dl tiln tdi vi^c su dyng hipu qua tai nguyen thidn nhidn, gidm phdt thdi khi nhd kinh thdng qua nghidn ciiu vd dp dyng cdng nghe hien dai, phdt triln h? thong co sd hg tAng dl nang cao hipu qud nin kinh te, dng phd vdi biln ddi khi hdu, gdp phan xda ddi gidm nghdo, vd tao dgng lyc thuc day tdng trudng kinh tl mgl cdch bin vOng". 0 Vi^t Nam, chiln luge tdng trudng xanh duge coi Id mpt budc cu thi hda trong chiln luge phdt trien ben vQng, Id npi dung ehinh ciia phdt trien ben vQng.
Cdc khdi nipm eua cdc to chdc khdc nhau ed cjdch dien dat khdc nhau, nhung chung diu quy ty 3 dilm chinh:
i) Kinh tl xanh Id nin kinh tl than thidn vdi mdi trudng, gidm phdt thai khi nhd kinh dd gidm thidu bidn ddi khi hdu.
ii) Kinh td xanh Id ndn kinh td tdng trudng theo chigu sau, hao tdn it nhien lieu, tdng cudng cdc nganh cdng nghiep sinh thai, ddi mdi cdng nghe.
iii) Kinh td xanh la ndn kinh td tdng trudng ben vung, xda ddi gidm ngheo vd phdt trien cdng bang.
Qua nhung khdi niem trdn, r6 rdng kinh te xanh la md hinh muc tidu eiia ede nude. Theo nghien cdu cua nhdm ehuyen gia eiia UNEP thi qud trinh xanh hda khdng nhiing tgo thdm cua cdi, ddc biet ddi vdi vdn tu nhidn, ma cdn gia tdng tdc dg tdng trudng GDP. Nin kinh td xanh cdn la try opt de gidm ngheo. Trong thdi ky qud dp sang ngn kinh tl xanh, nhiing vipc lam mdi dugc tgo ra sg ddn thay thi vi^c ldm bi mdt di do chuydn doi tu ndn kinh tg ndu sang xanh.
Tuy nhidn, sd cd giai dogn ty Ip that nghidp tdng cao, ddi hdi su dau tu vdo edng tdc tdi ddo tgo ngudn nhdn lyc^
Kinh td xanh ciing da duge chdng minh Id cd hieu qud vd mdt ddi han hon hdn kinh td ndu,
dong thdi duy tri vd phyc hoi vdn ty nhien'*.
Neu cd y thdc phdt trien kinh tl xanh sdm sS nit ngdn dugc qud trinh phdt trien, nhanh chong lien tdi xd hOi thjnh vugng bdn vQng,
2. Vj trf kinh te xanh trong doi mdi m6 hlnh tdng tnrdng vd tdi cau true nen kinh ti Vi^t Nam
2.1. 5(f cdn thiit phdi chuyen ddi md hinh tdng tru&ng vd hu&ng din tdng tru&ng xanh
Djnh hudng chuyin doi md hinh tdng tnrdng vd tdi cau tnic nin kinh Id d nude ta duge ddc bipt nhan mgnh vdo thdi didm bdi cdnh qudc te ed nhilu dien biln phuc tap. Nin kinh tl the gidi dang phdi doi mdt vdi thdch thuc tu hau khung hodng tdi ehinh loan cau 2008 vd ng cdng d chau Au. Tuy nhien, khdng phdi chi. bdi cdnh quoc te tdc dgng tidu eye md do npi tgi nin kinh te Viet Nam ddi hdi phai chuyen ddi md hinh tdng trudng.
Thu nhdt, chdt lugng tdng tru&ng kinh te thdp, do: i) Ndng sudt eua nen kinh le thdp vi it c6 sy ddng gdp ciia ylu to edng nghp. Nhirng thdnh tyu phdt trien kinh td eda Vipt Nam thdi gian qua chii yeu nhd su ddng gdp eua lao ddng trinh dp thap, vdn va tai nguydn. Trong qua trinh phdt tridn kinh te. cdc ngudn lyc ndy dupe khai thdc tript dg vd cd nguy co egn kiet dan.
Nin kinh te bdt ddu tdng trudng gidm ddn ya nhimg no lye thue ddy tdng trudng eao bdt ddu gay bdt can ddi. ii) Hiiu qud ddu tu rdt thdp:
Dd thiie day tdng trudng kinh tl cao trong digu kipn thg chg ehinh sdch, trinh dg lao dpng, cdng nghp ylu kem, Vipl Nam da dd rdl nhilu vdo vdo khai thdc nhiing ngudn lyc c6 hgn ciia dat nude. Vi thd, hp sd ICOR eua Viet Nam rdt cao.
Hon nda, tinh ygng ddu tu dan trdi, thdt thodt vdn ddu do van xdy ra. Chinh vi hieu qud ddu tu thdp nen-su dn djnh kinh td vT md bj de dga^ iii)
' Xem them UNEP. da d i n .
' U N E P , da din.
* Tinh trang tri^n khai dy i n cham, hi§u qua dAu tu thip g6p p h ^ gay ra tinh trgng mSt can d6i tiln - hAng. Tiic 14 nha dau tu b6 ti^n ra mua sSm m4y m6c, trang thiet bi, nguyen vat li^u nhung thdi gian th\rc hi^n qui lau,
3 4 - -NhOng vin di KINH Jt VA CHlNH TRI JHt Gidl S6 3(191)2012
Nguyin Quang Thufln - Nguyfen Xudn Trung Kinh t6 xanh trong J6i mdi md hinh tdng trudng....
Thdm hut ngdn sdch ngdy mdt l&n. Vdi dp luc tang trudng cao dd thodt khdi nude ngheo, Chinh phu Viet Nam da lien tye thuc ddy dau tu cdng thdng qua chi tieu ngdn sdch va do dd lam tham hut ngdn sach. Vide gidi quylt nd ddi hdi mdt chidn luge ddi han nhdm tai cdu tnic nin kinh td vd nang eao ndng lyc canh tranh eua ndn kinh te, d^e bidt Id vide tdi cdu tnic vd chinh ddn Igi. khu vuc doanh nghipp nhd nude, iv) Nin kinh te dua nhieu vdo FDI: Trong khi Vi$t Nam vSn dua nhieu vdo FDI dl tdng trudng ndn kinh td, thi vipc thu hut FDI mOt cdch dd ddng vd qudn ly FDI thieu chdt ehd da din din nhdng tac dpng tigu eye doi vdi kinh te vd xd hOi. Ddu tien. Id d nhiem mdi truang: Mdc dii nhihig dieu chinh lugt da hudng tdi vipc bdo vp mdi trudng va khuydn khich chuydn giao edng nghe tign tiln nhung kit qud khdng ed thay ddi nhieu. Td nam 2000 ddn 2005, ty le vdn FDI thyc hien tap trung vdo cac ngdnh co nguy co gay d nhiem mdi trudng van khdng thay ddi so vdi trudc . Mdt sd doanh nghidp ddu tu nude ngoai chua ty gidc trong vide tudn thu quy dinh ve bdo vd mdi trudng, chi van hdnh he thdng xu ly chat thdi khi CO quan chuc nang qudn ly mdi trudng phdt hien vd xd phat. Ngdy cang cd nhieu doanh nghidp FDI xd chdt thdi chua qua xu ly ra mdi trudng bj phdt hien^. Tiip den, la can kiet tai nguyen Khi ddt dai ngdy edng khan hiem, mdt sd dja phuong dd "trdi thdm dd ddn nhd ddu tu"
tren nhirng didn tich hdng tram, hdng ngdn ha nhung khdng quan tdm ddn tinh hgp ly vd cdc ydu cdu khdc cua ddt nude, nhu an ninh luong
khong tao ra san phdm tiroTig (mg \hm tSng cung tien Ih m6t phan nguygn nhan l^irn phat. Vii nam gSn day, Viet Nam dang ph4i d6i milt v6i Igm phat \i c6 nguy CO pha v8 thg 6n dinh cua n^n kinh t l bSy lau nay.
* Phung XuSn Nhg vA cong sir (2010): Diiu chinh chinh sdch ddu tw nu&c ngodi a Vi$t Nam trong tien trinh hoi nhdp kmh tiqudc li, NXB. D?i hoc Qu6c gia. Ha Npi.
^ T J trong doanh nghi|p FDI c6 trang thilt bj/cong trinh xir ly 6 nhilm chi ij mirc 20 - 2 1 % (CIEM, 2009). Theo
•Bao cao cua BO Jki nguyen vk Moi trudmg dira ra vao thang 7/2008 thi c6 tdfi 80% cac khu c6ng nghifip v i cac nha mdy xi nghiep trgn ca nii6c xa thang nir6c thai vao moi trudng.
thyc - mdi trudng. v) Nin kinh te tieu tdn nhieu ndng lugng. Do nin kinh te tdng tnrdng dya chu ylu vdo san pham thd, vdi sy ddng gdp rdt han chg vg cdng nghp, eho ndn nen kinh te Viet Nam edn duge ddnh gid la tieu tin nhilu ndng lugng do khai thdc nhilu tdi nguydn khodng sdn vd dong thdi cung thai ra mdi trudng nhieu chat dpc hgi do khdng xu ly chat thdi hi|u qud. Vipc phu thuge qud nhilu vdo ngudn lai nguydn thien nhidn vd nguydn lipu thd sd khidn nin kinh te kdm bin vQng vd on djnh.
Thu hai, thi chi, hg tdng kem phdt triin. He thdng hg tdng vd Ihl ehl kinh tl chua dap dng dugc yeu cdu, chua ho trg hipu qua cho phdt trien kinh te - xd hgi, phan bo ngu6n luc kdm hieu qua.
Qudn ly nha nude ddi vdi doanh nghipp cdn nhilu ylu kdm. Co chd thj trudng dugc cai thidn, nhimg cdn nhilu bdt cap. Cdc cdng trinh xdy dyng keo dai, cham dua vdo su dyng. Thj trudng khoa hgc - cdng nghe, thj trudng lao ddng, thj frudng bat ddng sdn chgm hinh thdnh.
Thu ba, trinh do lao ddng ehua dugc cdi thien nhiiu. Mdc du, Viet Nam khd ddi dao vl lao ddng nhung trinh dd lao dpng ydu kdm, ty le lao ddng qua ddo tgo thdp. Trong khi do, ky nang cua ngudi lao ddng khdng dugc cdi thidn ddng kd, chua tilp cdn dugc vdi cdng nghg hien dgi do cdc nhd ddu tu (ngudi su dung lao ddng) chua cd chien luge ddo tgo vd nang cao tay nghe cho ngudi lao ddng mdt cdch hipu qua. Ben canh dd, ciing phai kl din sy ydu kem cua he thdng gido dye Vidt Nam, dgc biet ITnh vue dgy nghe.
Nhung phdn tich d trdn cho thay, nguydn nhan ndi bat cua nhiing van de trong ndn kinh td hien nay bdt ngudn td md hinh tdng trudng eda Viet Nam khdng cdn phii hgp. Vdn dl hipn nay Id md hinh tdng tnrdng "theo chilu rgng" da dugc dp dung qud lau. Md hinh tdng trudng ndy ed thi hodn toan phd hgp nlu ddt trong bdi cdnh nhung nam cua thdp nidn 1990. Tuy nhien, ndu cd keo ddi tiep md hinh phdt trien nay thi ndn kinh tl Vigt Nam edng gdp nhieu bat cdp Idii Vidt Nam dd bude vdo nhdm cdc nude ed thu NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHJNH TRj TH^ Gidl S6 3(191) 2012- -35
Kinh t4 xanh trong d6i mdi md hinh tdng trudng.. Nguyen Quang Thudn - Nguyfen Xuan Trung nhap trung binh. Do dd, de duy tri tfnh ben
vung trong phdt tridn cdn phdi thay doi md hinh tdng trudng.
Cung thdi dilm ndy, sy de dga eiia biln d6i khi hdu da ldn den mdc cao nhAt lir trudc din nay. Hai ndm qua, the gidi dd chdng kiln dnh hudng nghidm trgng ctia thidn tai md nguydn nhan bdt ngu6n td biln d6i khi h^u, khiln cho the gidi phdi nhin nh§n vkn dl ndy nghiem tiic ban. Vi vgy, xu hudng ehuyin d6i md hinh tdng trudng kinh Id ciia nhilu nude deu hudng tdi phdt trien gdn vdi bdo vp mdi trudng. Dilu ndy the hipn ngay Uong giai doan khting hodng kinh tl loan cau khi nhidu nude ddnh khodn Idn trong gdi kich thich kinh ll eho phdt trien xanh vd tieh cyc keu gpi hgp tdc trong phdt triln xanh.
Tai Viet Nam, Chidn luge Phdt triln kinh Id xa hpi 2011 - 2020 duge Dai hgi Ddng Cpng sdn Viet Nam ldn thu XI (2011) thdng qua eho thay, myc tidu phdt triln kinh te xd hgi thdp ky tdi se chii trpng van de chat lugng tdng trudng hay ndi cdch khdc tdng trudng theo chidu sau va bdn vdng theo nghia khdng chay theo sd lugng vd ddm bdo ede can ddi vi md dl dn dinh kinh td vd ddi hgn; tap trung phdt tridn nhdng ngdnh cd Igi the cgnh tranh, sd dyng edng nghp cao de tiing bude ndng cao sue cgnh tranh cua loan bg nen kinh te, timg doanh nghidp, san phdm.
2.2. Vf tri ciia tdng trudng xanh Trong giai dogn cdi cdch phdt tridn vda qua, Viet Nam dd tim mgi cdch dl thuc ddy tdng Ijurdng kinh tl chu chua thyc sy ehd tdm din phdt triln bin vdng cCing nhu phdt trien xanh hodc ed nhihig ldc, nhiing ch6 Viet Nam dd dh cap din ylu td bdo vp mdi trudng trong tdng trudng kinh tl nhung van chua dugc thuc hipn tdt.
Vdi quy md dan sd dugc du bao gdn 100 tripu ddn vdo ndm 2020 vd myc tidu trd thdnh nude cdng nghiep theo hudng hipn dai, nin kinh tl Viet Nam khdng edn Id nin kinh tl nhd, nhu cau tieu thy ndng lugng cho sdn xudt, giao thdng van tdi vd sinh hoat sd rat ldn. Tnrdc bdi
cdnh todn cau hipn nay, sy cgnh tranh ngudn lire khan hilm cdng khdc nghipt, sy de dpa do biln doi khi h^u ngdy cdng nghidm trgng, qud trinh phdt trien d mgi nydc diu khdng the tdch roi vi§c gidm phdt thdi ra mdi trudng de bdo vp trai d^t cho thi h§ tuang lai. Vipc qudn ly phdt thdi xau den mdi trudng vd dp dyng cdng ngh§ hipn dgi dl gidm lidu hao nhidn lipu, su dyng tilt kipm, phdt triln ede nguon ndng lupng mdi phdi dugc thuc day vdi nhOng hipn phdp mgnh ngay Id bay gid, vd Vi^t Nam khdng ndm ngodi tiln trinh ndy.
Theo dy bdo, Vipl Nam Id mpt Uong cdc quoc gia chju dnhlnrdng ndng ne cua bidn ddi khi hdu. Khi nude bien dang len sd nhdn chim nhilu vung dat d Vipt Nam. Chinh vi vdy, du khdng dii sdc ngdn chdn su thay ddi cua khi hdu, Vipt Nam cung can thd hien Id mdt hat nhdn trdch nhipm bdng edeh chu dgng trong phdt trien nen kinh te xanh va keu gpi cpng ddng qudc td eung phdt trign nin kinh tg xanh.
Vi vdy, ygu ciu d6i mdi md hinh tdng tnrdng kinh tl theo hudng phdt tridn theo chigu sdu, bgn vdng, tidt kipm tdi nguygn, bdo ve mdi trudng dugc ddt ra nhy nhiem vy hdng dau trong giai dogn phdt trign mdi. Theo khai niem kinh tg xanh dugc phan tich d trgn, rd rdng day Id mpt npi dung trgng yeu cua phdt triln bin vCmg. Tat cd nhirng myc tigu ddt ra yong chien luge phat tridn kinh te - xd hgi cua Viet Nam trong giai dogn tdi deu lien quan chdt ehe vdi ngi dung tdng trudng xanh.
Doi vdi Vipt Nam, tdng trudng xanh Id mau chdt gidi quydt nhiing bdt hgp ly trong md hinh tdng trudng hipn nay. Bdi vi, nd lidn quan ddn kha ndng cdng nghp hay muc dd "tinh" trong nen kinh te. Khi Vipt Nam cd dugc nhdng ydu td ndy thi ndng sudt lao dpng vd chdt lugng tdng trudng sd cao. Dilu ndy de dua din tdng trudng kinh te eao vd ben vOng. Do dd, tdng trudng xanh cd vi tri rdt quan trgng trong chidn luge tdng trudng theo chidu sau cua Vipt Nam dong thdi gian tdi.
,36 -NhOng vin di KINH Jt VA CHlNH TR| JHt Gidl So 3(191) 2012
Nguyin Quang Thudn - Nguydn Xuan Trung Kinh t^ xanh trong d6i mdi md hinh tdng trudng..
3. Kha nang phat trien kinh te xanh cua Viet Nam
Viet Nam dang hudng den nen kinh td xanh trong dinh hudng tdi cAu true ndn kinh tl. Dilu nay the hien rat ro d quyel lam chinh trj ciia Dang va Nha nude Viet Nam khi hipn nay, Du thao Chidn luge tang trudng xanh cua Viet Nam dang duge lay y kidn gdp y rgng rdi trudc khi ban hanh.
Tuy nhien, lieu Viet Nam ed the thdnh cdng theo hudng tdng dudng xanh? Viet Nam cdn each nen kinh te xanh thye su bao xa? Dudi day se phdn tich mdi trudng kinh td - xa hpi ciia Viet Nam (diem manh, diem yeu, co hgi, thach thuc) dg dua ra nhan dinh khd ndng thanh cdng cua Viet Nam vd de xuat hudng lya chpn cho Viet Nam trong tuong lai.
3.1. Diem mgnh
- Viet Nam trai qua 25 ndm doi mdi da thu dugc nhidu thanh tuu kinh Id - xa hgi quan trgng: ndn kinh tl tdng trudng cao, co sd ha tdng phat triln, thu nhap ddu ngudi cai thien nhanh... Hien nay, trinh dp cdng nghe cua Viet Nam cdn ydu kem nhung dang cd su cai thien nhanh nhd lpi thd cua nude di sau vd gay dugc su chd y cua nude ngoai nhd thanh tuu cai each kinh td ddng kl trong thdi gian qua. Viet Nam eiing dang hdi nhap sau rdng vao edng ddng qude tl, tao ra nhidu ca hpi cho phat trien kinh tl trong nude. Qua 25 nam thanh edng dong phai triln ddt nude, da tao thanh chuoi xu Ihl thdi gian dd nhin vao dd ed thd Igc quan hon vao nhung ddi mdi trong tuong lai.
- Viet Nam ciing la mdt nude thu hut dau tu ldn td nude ngoai. Tinh den nam 2010, Viet Nam dung vi tri thu 49 ve thu hut nhidu vdn FDI tren thd gidi, tuong duong vdi Ddi Loan vd dung vj tri thu 5 d Ddng Nam A^ Theo tinh todn d trong nude, khu. vyc FDI da ddng gdp 25% tdng vdn ddu tu va tao ra 19% GDP giai doan 2006 - 2010. Nhilu doanh nghiep FDI dd
mang cdng nghe hien dai (mdc dii vin cdn il) vdo Vipl Nam, trong do cd mdt sd tap doan ndi tidng thd gidi vd cdng nghp cao nhu Intel, Samsung, Canon... Ndu Viet Nam ed ehinh sach phii hgp se khien cdc lap doan ndy dau lu cdng nghd cao vd gdp phan nang cao ndng luc cdng nghd eua dat nude, kit n6i vdi mang san xuat toan cau. Dieu ndy rat can thiet dd phat trien nen kinh te xanh.
- Von eon ngudi cua Vipt Nam khd ddi ddo, hipn nay cd khodng 86 trieu ddn Irong do ty le tham gia lye lugng lao dpng cao, ly le bigt chii cao, chdm chi vd ndm bdt nhanh... Ngu hg dugc ddo tgo tdt thi se la dgng Iuc thuc ddy tdng trudng xanh cua .ddt nude, kha nang Viet Nam Ihdnh cdng de ddng han.
3.2. Diem yeu
- Nin kinh tl Viet Nam phy thuge nhidu vdo khai thdc thd, su dyng nhilu tdi nguyen thien nhign vd ndng lupng hda thgeh cho phdt trign kinh te va lieu dung.
Viet Nam la nude sdn xuat ndng nghidp ldn, hipn chilm gdn % GDP cua ed ndn kinh td. Tuy nhign, khu vyc nay lai phdt thdi nhigu khi nha kinh (CH4, N2O). Hien nay, phdt thdi khi nha kinh trong ndng nghiep va ngdnh nghe phi ndng nghiep d ndng thdn chidm 43,1%
tdng phdt thdi khi nhd kinh cua Viet Nam.
Theo du bao, din ndm 2020, tdng lugng phdt thdi khi nhd kinh cua Viet Nam trong dieu kipn binh thudng khoang 96,29 trieu tdn C02e, trong do trong trgt chiem 59,2% (phan ldn td canh tac Ida nude), chan nudi 25,3%, ngdnh nghe phi ndng nghi$p d ndng thdn 20,1%, thuy sdn 15,8%, thuy Igi 0,4% vd lam nghiep hap thu duge 20,9% lugng khi trong ITnh vue ndng nghipp^. Ben canh dd, khu vuc ndng nghidp ngdy edng su dyng nhieu phdn hoa hgc, thudc trd sau, cac logi phy gia, chat kich thich... da tdc ddng rat xdu ddn mdi trudng, da dgng sinh hgc vd sue khde cua eon ngudi.
* UNCTAD (20f I). World Investment Report 2011. Chii y th6ng k6 cua qu6c t l chSnh l^ch rat I6n v6i thong ke ciia Vift Nam vi hp si> dung phuong phap khac.
^ Din theo D^r thao ChiSn luoc tang truing xanh ciia Vifit Nam thdi ky 2011- 2020 va tam nhin 2050 do Bp Kg ho^ch va Dau tu soan thao.
NhOng vin di KINH Jt VA CHlNH TRj JHt Gidl S6 3(191) 2012- - 3 7
Kinh t l xanh trong d6i mdi md hlnh tdng trudng.. NguySn Quang Thudn - Nguyfen Xuan Trung - Nin kinh tl vdi ndng suat thdp do trinh d0
cdng nghd van d muc thap ndn su4t tteu hao nhidn lieu nhieu. Toe dg ddi mdi cdng ngh§ cdn dien ra cham ehgp. Mde dii dd c6 nhd d4u tu nude ngodi mang edng nghp hipn dai vdo Vipt Nam nhung con sd ndy edn rat hgn che. Hon nCia, chiing Igi it dugc chuyen gjao md chi d$t tgi Vipt Nam dl san xuat. Ph4n ldn cdc nhd dAu Ur nude ngodi v ^ ddu tu vdo nhihig ITnh vyc thdm dyng lao dpng vd tdi nguyen - dugc coi Id Igi thi so sdnh ciia Viet Nam trong hai thdp ky qua.
Cd the ndi, su thdnh cdng trong phdt trien kinh td xanh cua Viet Nam phy thuOc nhilu vdo cdng nghe ciia cac nude phdt triln. Ddc bipt, nhdng cdng nghe lien quan ddn kiem sodt phat thdi khi nhd kinh van chua dugc phdt triln d Vipt Nam.
- Ndn kinh tg Vipt Nam dang trong qud trinh tdng toe ngn rdt khd cdt giam lieu hao nhign lipu hay dung nhien lieu thay thg xa xi hon. Bdt cd mdt qua trinh lai cdu tnic ndo ciing ddi hdi phdi giam tdc tdng trudng dd chuygn ddi. Digu nay sg khidn cho tinh trgng vide ldm vd thu nhgp cua ngudi dan hi dnh hudng trong khi ca cdu mdi chua phat huy Igi thd. Ndu khdng kit hgp hdi hoa chinh sdch sd de dan den nhflng vdn dd mdu thudn xa hdi sau sdc.
- Ca sd hg tdng mdm cho tdng trudng xanh ehua phat tridn. Mudn thye hipn cdc chinh sdch tdng Irudng xanh can phdi cd cdng cy kidm sodt va che tdi ddi vdi cdc chu thd ngn kinh td. Vdn de do ludng qud trinh chuydn ddi sang nin kinh tg xanh can dugc cdi thidn. Vipt Nam hien van chua cd ca sd ddnh gid phdt thdi khi nhd kinh cua eae chu thd kinh tl.
- Nhan thue eua ngudi dan vl van dd khi nhd kinh cdn rdt ban che. Hdu nhu hg khdng dugc thdng tin vd van de ndy. Tham chi ngay ca khi hg dugc thdng tin thi hg ciing coi day nhu Id vdn dk xdy ra vdi ngudi khde. Hg chua nhdn thdc ddy dii dugc nhiing tac dgng lieu cyc cua tinh trgng ndy.
Vi thi tinh trgng chdt pha rimg, huy hoai Ihign nhien van dien ra thudng xuyen d Vipt Nam.
3.3. Ca hpi
- Xu hudng qudc te dang chuyen doi sang kinh ll xanh. Trong giai dogn sau khiing hodng tdi chinh lodn cau 2008, tdng trudng xanh hay kinh tl xanh dang trd thdnh mdi quan tam hang dau cua t^t cd cdc qudc gia nhu mgt dgng lire thiic dAy vd phyc hdi kinh te todn cau va cdng cy dl phdt triln ben vdng. Chii dg nay dugc nhdc di, nhdc Igi nhieu lan trong cde dien ddn khu vyc vd quoe tl vd dang dugc cac nude nghigm luc xem xdt dp dyng.
Thyc ll Id, tdng trudng xanh dd cho thdy vai trd trong vipc giup cdc quoc gia vua dat dugc cdc myc tigu ve tdng trudng kinh Id, phdt triln xd hpi va d^c bipt la bao vp mdi trudng, thich img vdi dilu kipn ciia bien ddi khi hau. Rat nhilu qu6e gia van dyng md hinh ndy nhu Due, Phap, Hdn Quoc, Trung Qu6c, Mj... vd thu dugc nhQng ket qua r5 rdng trong tdng Irudng kinh te, bdo vp mdi trudng, gidm lugng khi thai.
Tgi khu vuc chau A, "Dien ddn Khi hau Ddng A" dd dugc td chuc tai Seoul vao 29/05/2009, cdc nude trong khu vyc da trao ddi vd vide thidt lap cac chien luge tang trudng xanh cua Ddng A, lao eo hgi dd cdc qudc gia chdu A cd the chia se kinh nghidm vd chinh sdeh lidn quan. "Sang kien Seoul vg tdng trucmg xanh Ddng A" dd dugc thdng qua trong khudn khd dien dan. Cdc nhd Idnh dao cap cao cua cac nude Ddng A cijng da thao ludn vd phuang dn tdng cudng hgp lac xanh yong vide thilt lap sir on djnh luang thuc vd ndng lugng - nhiing ylu lo cdn thidt cho phdt didn bin vflng eiia cac qudc gia trong khu vyc tai Hgi nghj thugng dinh ASEAN - Hdn Qudc (1-2/06/2009. Jeju, Hdn Qudc) dugc td chdc ngay sau dien dan trdn, cdc nhd lanh dgo bdy td sy ddng thudn cao ddi vdi chinh sdch tdng trudng xanh md Chinh phu Han Qudc dua ra.
Vd phdn cdc nude Ddng Nam A, ASEAN cung ra tuyen bd chung (7/2010) nhdn mgnh:
cde ddi tdc va cdc td chuc qudc tl eiing cd vai trd quan trpng trong ho trg khdi ASEAN tien gan han vdi hinh mdu phdt triln "Gidm carb9n - Tang trudng xanh". ASEAN se thdt ch^t hon 38- -NhOng vin di KINH Jt VA C H I N H TRj TH^ Gidl So 3(191) 2012
Nguyin Quang Thudn - Nguydn Xuan Trung Kinh t l xanh trong d6i mdi md hinh tdng trudng..
dong hgp tdc ndng lugng vdi khu vyc Ddng A, trong do quan tam nhidu din Ca chd phat triln sgch (CDM), phdt trign ndng lugng hat nhan dan sy... de han chg nhihig tac dgng xdu trong Dien ddi khi hau.
Tigp dd, thang 10/2010, tai Hdi nghj cdp cao A - Au (ASEM) dugc td chuc d Bi, Thii tudng Viet Nam da ehinh thdc dd xudt sdng kiln hgp tac A - Au vd tdng trudng xanh, sdng kiln ndy da nhgn dugc sy img hg cua rdt nhilu td chuc, qudc gia thanh vidn ASEM. Nhilu thdnh vidn ASEM dd di ddu yong thye hien xanh hda nin kinh td, ma ndi bat la cdc chidn luge cua Lidn hiinh chdu Au, Trung Qudc, Nhdt Ban, Han Qudc, Viet Nam... Cdc qudc gia ndy deu eoi tang trudng xanh Id mdt djnh hudng phdt triln qudc gia trong nhiing thap ky Idi, dae bipt la trudc nhdng he qua sau sdc ciia eugc kliiing hodng kinh Id - tdi chinh loan cau. Ddu thdng 10/2011, Didn dan Hgp tdc A - Au vl tdng trudng xanh (Asia-Europe Meeting Green Growth Forum) vdi chu dd "Cung hanh dgng hudng tdi cac nen kinh te xanh" dugc to chdc d Viet Nam de tim cdc ca che hgp tac va chia se kmh nghiem phat trien xanh giiia cdc nude.
Tai Hpi nghj Didn dan Hgp tdc Kinh te chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC) bl mgc ngdy 13/11/2011 d Hawaii (My), cde nhd Idnh dgo APEC eiing da thdng qua Tuydn bd Honolulu, trong do, APEC xdc dinh can phai giai quydt cdc thdch thdc mdi trudng vd kinh te cua khu vyc bdng each hudng ddn nen kinh td xanh, carbon thdp, ndng cao an ninh ndng lugng va lao ngudn mdi eho tang yudng kinh Id vd vipc lam. APEC dd thdng nhdt nam 2012, se phdt tridn danh muc hang hda mdi trudng (hdng hda xanh) vd gidm thud quan ddi cac mat hdng ndy vao cudi nam 2015. APEC se xda bd rdo can phi thul quan bao gdm cdc ydu cdu ty Id ndi dja hda ddi vdi cac dich vu vd hang hda mdi Irudng. D I thue ddy cac mue tieu tang trudng xanh, APEC se thuc hien cac bidn phdp nhu giam 45% cudng dp sd dyng ndng lupng ciia APEC vdo nam 2035 so vdi nam 2005, kgt hgp eae chiln luge phat trign ve thai carbon thap
vdo cdc kd hogch tdng trudng kinh td thdng qua du dn Thdnh phd mSu carbon thdp...
0 edp dp loan cau, Dien dan Tang Irudng xanh todn cau (Global Green Growth Forum - 3GF) lan thd nhat dd dien ra tgi Copenhagen - Dan Mgch trong hai ngay 11-12/10/2011. Day Id mgt sy kien dugc td chuc bdi Chinh phii Dan Mgch vdi sy phdi hgp ddng sdng kiln ciia cde Chinh phu Hdn Quoc va Mexico. 3GF dugc to chuc vdi muc tidu chinh la thuc ddy tdng trudng xanh thdng qua co che hgp tdc cdng - tu giiia cdc chinh phu vdi khdi doanh nghiep.
- Nd Iuc chuyen ddi md hinh tdng trudng dang dugc thyc hipri vdi quyet tam chinh tri cao. Dd an xay dung chidn luge tang trudng xanh ciia Viet Nam sdp duge ban hdnh, hien dang lay y kiln rgng rdi tu cdc dia phuong va cdc doanh nghiep.
- Tidm nang vd ndng lugng tai tgo eua Viet Nam khd ldn. Thuy dien nhd cua Viet Nam rat ldn liem ndng ndng luang gid, ven ban 3.000 km bd bien va nam trong khu vyc khi hau nhiet ddi gid mua, Viet Nam c6 nhieu thuan loi trong phdt yidn nang lupng gio. Hipn nay cung da cd mdt sd dy an didn gid dugc tridn khai d mdt sd tinh Nam Trung bp (Binh Thudn, Ninh Thuan) vd tai mdt sd huyen ddo, dim ndng ndng lugng sinh khdi, chu ydu td gd, phd thdi td cay ndng nghiep, chat thai chan nudi, rdc thai dd thi vd chat thai hiiu co khdc... ddu Id nhiing thd rat cd sdn d Viet Nam. Ngudn nang lugng sinh khdi d Viet Nam rat ldn vd khd da dgng. Hipn nay, udc tinh mdi nam co khoang 60 Uieu tan sinh khdi dugc tao ra tu ngudn phy phdm - phg thdi, Uong do gan 40% sinh khdi dugc khai thdc dua vao su dung cho myc dich nang lugng'°. Tiem ndng ndng lugng mat trai, Viet Nam ed tdng sd gid nang Uong nam dao dgpg tu 1.400 din 3.000 gid, tdng buc xg mgt trdi trung binh nam khodng 230 - 250kcal/em /ngay theo hudng tdng dan vd phia Nam. Con sd nay cho thay Viet Nam cd tidm ndng kha ve nang lugng mat trdi"
" Bill Quang Tuan (2011).
' Theo Tap chf NSng lupng th6 gi6i (World Energy);
ti^m nang kha thuc ciia ngu6n nSng lucmg mat trijl clio
NhOng vin di KINH Jt VA CHINH TRj JHt Gidl S6 3(191) 2012- -39
Kinh le xanh trong d6i mdi md hlnh tdng trudng.. Nguyin Quang Thudn - Nguyfen Xudn Trung Tdt cd nhijng logi ndng lugng trdn van d dang
tilm ndng Id chinh, chua dugc khai thdc phyc vy cho nin kinh ll va xd hOi cua Vipt Nam.
3.4. Thdch thiic
- Trdn the gidi van cdn khdng it quan dilm phan doi kinh tl xanh. Hg cho rdng, nd chi ldm tdn kdm cua cdi v§t chdt md khdng tgo dugc Igi ich luong xung. Th^m chf, cd nhiing quan dilm cho rdng, ndn kinh tg xanh Id dilu xa xi md chi cdc nude gidu mdi du khd ndng chi trd vd thdm chi day Id dm muu cua cdc nude phdt trien nhdm kim ham cdc nude dang phdt trien'^
- Thdch thdc tu sy hgp tdc quoc te kdm hipu qua: Y>k gidm ph^t thdi khf nhd kfnh, bdo vd mdi trudng Id cdng vipc ciia cd Ihl gidi chd khdng chi ridng nude ndo. Nhiing dnh hudng do sy xudng cdp ciia mdi trudng cd ldc dpng den nhieu nude trong khu vyc vd the gidi. Vi vgy, de xu ly vdn de ve mdi trudng - nhung van de cd tinh thdch thuc todn ckxx - ddi hdi cdc nude phdi cung hanh ddng. trong khi dd, khdng phdi nude ndo eiing cd thien chf vd thyc hien dung cam kdt vdi ddi tac. Do do, nd cd thd pha vd myc tidu chdng bidn ddi khf hdu vd tdng trudng xanh d Viet Nam.
- De phdt trien nen kinh te xanh can phdi cd sy cdi thien manh me vd ndng luc cdng nghp.
Trong khi trinh dp cdng nghd cdn ban chd, Viet Nam cd nguy co ddn nhan ldn sdng di chuygn cdng nghp lac hau td cdc nude phdt trign hon sang cac nude kem phdt trign hon. Oan day, Trung Qudc chu dpng nang cao chdt lugng dy dn FDI tai nude ndy. Hg dd hgn chd hoac cam nhdng du dn cdng nghipp ndng hao tdn nhien lieu vd d nhiem mdi trudng, vd rat c6 the nhiing du dn nay se chuyen sang cdc nude kem phdt yien hon trong do cd Vipt Nam. Theo thdng bdo cua Chfnh phu Trung Qudc vdo thdng 10/2011, nude nay sd logi bd 2.255 doanh nghidp lac hau, hipu qua thap trdn cd nude. Cho ndn cdc doanh nghidp Viet Nam cdn trdnh nhiing thidt bj tir nhiing doanh nghiep ndy.
mpt vimg thi so gi£r nang binh quan phai dat tir 1800h/nam trd len [Biii Quang Tudn, ngu6n d3 dan].
'^UNEP,ngu6ndadln.
Mdt khdc, hipn nay chi phi lign cdng lao d^ng bdt dku tdng ldn d Trung Qudc. Nhilu doanh nghipp d viing ven biln dd ddng cua, mpt phan cung do thj trudng eo hpp, nhung chu ylu Id chi phf lao dgng eao vd nhiing chinh sach ch6ng gdy d nhilm mdi irudng ciia Chinh phii Trung Qu6c dd ldm tdng chi phi san xuit. Vi Ihl, cdc nhd d^u tu sd tim din thj trudng Vi?t Nam dl thay thi vdi gid nhdn cdng rd ban vd nhilu uu ddi han. Nlu nhthig doanh nghidp nay vi dau tu vdo ngdnh Ihdm dyng lao dgng hodc gay d nhiem n^ng lu Trung Quoc chuydn sang, hilm khi Id cdng nghp cao md sd Id sy ehuyen giao cdng nghp Igc hau. Ddy Id dieu Viet Nam ndn hit sue Ihgn trpng.
- Thdch thue trong gidi quylt mau thuan giiia edng nghipp hda vd gidm thdi khf nhd kinh. Viet Nam hifn vHn Id nude cd thu nhdp trung binh thdp, trinh dp phdt tridn thdp, lieu Viet Nam cd thi tu bd myc tigu tdng trudng cao dong ngSn hgn dl dat myc tidu xanh hda?
- Thdch thdc cho ede sdn phdm xuat khdu cua Vipt Nam khi bj cdc nude dp ddt tidu chuan mdi trudng eao han. Ddy Id vdn de Viet Nam da vd dang phdi ddi mdt. Ciing vdi Viet Nam, nhidu nude dd chuydn nhanh sang nen kinh te xanh va cdc yeu cau ddi vdi hdng hda cua nude ngodi nhdp vdo ciing cao han. Kha ndng cdc doanh nghipp Vipt Nam ddp dng dugc cde yeu cau cua hg sd khd hon do nin tang vd digu kien sdn xuat d Vipl Nam cdn cd ban.
4. Ly^ chpn phdt trien kinh te xanh dap irng ydu cau doi mdi md hinh tdng tnrdng
Qua vipc ddnh gid digm mgnh, digm ydu, ca hgi vd thdch thuc ddi vdi Vipt Nam dong phat triln kinh tl xanh, r5 rdng Vipt Nam eon rat nhilu ylu kdm vd thdch thdc phdi vugt qua.
Vipc chuyin ddi sang nin kinh tl xanh khd c6 the tidn hdnh nhanh vd Vipt Nam van cdn each
"nen kinh td xanh thye sy" rdt xa.
Mac du vgy, phdi khdng djnh rdng dinh hudng tdng trudng xanh ddi vdi Viet Nam duac 4 0 - -NhOng vin di KINH Jt vA C H I N H TRj TH^ Gidl S6 3(191) 2012
Nguyin Quang Thujn - Nguyin XuSn Trung Kinh t l xanh trong Joi m(^i ma hlnh tang truang....
thuc hi$n cang s6m c ^ g tot. Bai vi n6 khong ohi lien quan din v§n 6h xanh h6a s ^ xuat m^
con tac d0ng den y thOrc ciia ngu6i dSn, xanh hoa l6i s6ng va tifiu dung. Tuy nhien, vi?c th\rc hien tang truong xanh phAi phii h(?p vdi timg giai doan phdt triSn ciia dat nude. Vi$c thiic day tang trucmg xanh d6i hoi chi phi ldn v^ c6 s\t danh d5i muc tieu vdi tSng trudng nau. Khi nSn kinh t^ CO nSn t ^ g vihig chac cd the dSy nhanh chuySn hudng sang nen kinh t^ xanh (cdc nude EU, My, Han Qu6c... cd thS lilm du(?c di^u nay) nhung khi kinh te cdn han ch^ nhu Vi|t Nam hidn nay, vi?c nay c ^ phii xem x6t ky.
Bi chuydn nin kinh te nSu sang kinh te xanh, chiing ta deu ph4i sap x^p \ii ato kinh ti.
Qua trinh nay se bupc phai giim toe dp tang trudng hoac tv nd lam gi4m tSng trudng trong ngSn han va nd sg anh hudng den vi?c lam va thu nhap cua ngudi lao dpng. D6i vdi Viet Nam, mgt nude thu nhap trung binh thap - ap luc day nhanh tang trudng de thodt khdi ddi
ngh^o va duoi kip cac nude la rat cao. Chinh vi vay, can phdi cd su chuyen hudng hai hda, neu khong, Vi6t Nam se gap nhihig van de xa hdi do su chuyen doi nay gay ra. Khi Viet Nam da dat trinh do phat hien cao hon (sau nSm 2020 ca ban trd thanh nude cong nghidp), su chuyen doi sang nSn kinh 18 xanh cd thi dupe diy nhanh hon.
R5 rang, tang trudng xanh la ngi dung quan trpng cin hudng tdi trong qui trinh th\ic hi?n d6i mdi mo hinh tang trudng vd tdi ciu tnic nin kinh ti Vi6t Nam hien nay. Kinh nghiSm phdt trien ciia cdc nude cho thiy vi?c chuySn sang nin kinh te xanh tao ra tiem nang to ldn cho phdt trien bSn vitag vd gidm ddi nghio. ChuySn doi mo hinh tang trudng theo hudng tdng trudng xanh la su khdng dinh thuc hi?n chiSn lupc kinh te - xa hpi cua Vi$t Nam giai doan 2011 - 2020. Tit nhien, qud trinh nay ddi hdi phdi cd sir ddi mdi thuc su trong tu duy phdt tri6n va quyet liet trong hdnh dpng cu thi*
Tdi H$u tham khao:
Bp Ki hoach vd Diu tu (2012): Dir thdo Chiin lucre Idng trucmg xanh ctia Viet Nam than ky 2011 - 2020 vd tdm nhin 205O
Bp K I hoach va Ddu tu: Bdo eao dinh huang tdi ca cau kinh ti chuyen 361 ino hinh lang truang theo huang nang cao hieu qud, nang suit va nang lue canh tranh cm nen kinh te (Tai lieu phuc vu Hpi nghi Chinh phii vdi lanh dao cac tinh, thanh phd true thupc Trung uong).
UNEP (2011): Hu&ng tai nin kinh ti xanh - Lo trinh cho phdt triin bin viing va xoa doi giam ngheo, Bdn dich ciia Vi?n Chiln lupc, Chinh sdch Tdi nguyen vd Moi ttuong, N>'.B.
Nong nghiep. Ha Npi, tr. 13.
UNCTAD (2011): World Investment Report 2011.
Biii Quang Tuin (2011): Khai thdc vd sic dung ndng luang xanh a Viet Nam, Hpi thdo khoa hpc qudc tl "Chiin luae Idng truang xanh ciia Hdn QuSc vd nhung goi y eho Viit Nam", Vien Nghien ciiu Ddng Bac A, Hd Ndi, ngay 27/12/2011.
Phimg Xuan Nh? va cpng su (2010): Diiu chinh ehinh sdch ddu tu nuac ngodi a Viel Nam trong liin Irinh hgi nhdp kinh ti qude li NXB. Dai hpc Qudc gia, Hd Npi.
Nguyin van Phudc (2012): Chuyin ddi mo hinh tdng truang vd dinh huang tdng truang xanh a VW Nam, Tap chi Nghi6n ciru Kinh tl, sd 2.
mang vin 06 KINH 1 6 VA CHiNH TR| THfe GIOI S6 3(191) 2 0 1 2 -
