Tai cMhh Quoc te
HOI NHAP
ft Trung Quoc u'ng pho vo^i khung hoang tai chinh
ft Phan tich "sir itien AIG" va bai hpc rut ra cho thj tru-ang bao hiem Vi#t Nam
Trung Qudc vd Boi ke hooch , K i C H T H i C H K I N H TE
NGHIEM TH! THUY HANG Vi$n Khoa hpc Tai chinh
Tdc ddng cua cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh vuot khdi bien gidi qudc gia vd lan ra cdc chau luc khde. Nhieu qudc gia chau Au dd phdi thau tdm hogc ho tra cho cdc dinh che tdi chinh dang ben bo vuc phd sdn. Vdi cuong vi Id mot qudc gia Idn a chau A, nen kinh te Trung Qudc dd bi dnh hudng nhu the ndo vd qudc gia ndy da cd chuan bi gi de ung phd?
( ^
upc khung hoang thi trudng tai chinh - tin d u n g d My bat ngudn tir khung hoang tin dung bat ddng san va sy phat trien ciia cac loai chiing khoan - cdng cu huy dpng vdn phiic tap vupt khdi tam kiem soat eiia Cbinh phu va cac dinh che tai chinh da trai qua hem mpt nam vdi nhieu vu dd vo, pha san Idn n h u Ngan bang Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, eac tap doan tin d u n g bat ddng san Fannie Mae, Fred-
die Mac...Trucie nhirng di§n bien ed dau bieu ngay mdt xau bon. Cue Dy trir Lien bang My (Fed) da cat giam lai sua't, b a m bang tram ty USD de cuu thi trudng, d d n g thdi thyc hien nhieu bien p h a p quyet liet de kiem soat he thd'ng tai chinh - tin dung.
Mac dii vay, cupc k h u n g hoang tai chinb vdi n g u d n gdc sau xa va tieh luy tir lau vSn d a n g tiep diSn, vupt khdi tam
BiSu e 6 1: TY Lg T A N G TRir^NG XUAT KHAU C O A TRUNG QUOC T I N H THEO T H A N G (%)
Ty le 60
50
40
30
Ngudn: Bd Thuang mai Trung Quoc
20
10
2007
Aw ••-•i^^:^:;i'i:
\ /V?^Vx>^-_
\ / \ / 2008
Thang 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
kiem soat ciia Chinh phii My va lan ra cac chau luc khac. Nhieu qudc gia chau Au da phai thau tdm hodc phai hd tro cho mdt sd ngan h a n g lam vao tinh canh cue ky khd khan. Va tai chau A - noi ducpe coi la bi anh hucing it h o n ciing d a n g cd n h u n g ke hoach de ling phd vcri con bao Icin nay. Trong bdi canh khung hoang tin d u n g the gidi gay gat n h u vay, vdi cuong vi la mpt qudc gia Idn d chau A, lieu nen kinh te Trung Qudc ed bi anh h u d n g nhieu va qudc gia nay chuan bi nhirng gi de ling phd?
Tdc dong cua khung hodng tdi kinh te Trung Qudc
N h u n g tac d d n g ciia cupc khiing h o a n g tai chinb den nhieu nen kinh te ndi chung va Trung Qudc ndi rieng ed the ndi la kha sau rdng va hien tai chua the ed s y d a n h gia day du va toan dien ve nhirng tac dpng eua nd. Tuy nhien, ed the tha'y mdt so tdc ddng dien hinh cua cudc killing hodng tdi chinh todn cdu ddi v&i kinh te Trung Qiw'c nhu sau:
Thu nhdt, tac dpng g i i m tang
50 Tai Chinh T H A N G 12/2008
trudng xua't khau, giam miic thang d u thuong mai. Xuat khau vdn la mdt trong nhiing try ept cbinh cho tang trucing kinh te ciia Trung Qudc vdi miic tang hang nam khoang 20%.
Thue te cho thay, trong nhimg nam gan day, cac cdng ty xuat khau cua Trung Qudc da vay tien va dau tu manh cho viec m d rpng boat dpng san xuat khi so lucpng don hang tang cao.
Tuy nhidn, trong bdi canh cae nen kinh te Idn n h u My, chau Au, Nhat...gap khd khan, diing n h u d y doan ciia eac nha kinh te rang xuat khau eua Trung Qudc ciing se bi giam theo. That vay, trong thang 5 va thang 6/2008, xuat khau sang chau Au da giam 20%; cac don dat hang tir nucie ngoai ddi vcri bang dien tii tieu diing, det may va do choi da giam manh.
(Xem Bieu dd 1).
Tang trudng kinh te ciia Trung Qudc ciing tir dd giam manh xudng cdn 9% trong quy 11/2008 (la ty le
thap nha't trong 5 nam trd lai day).
Sang quy III/2008, tang trudng dat miic 9,97o, tuy nhien van thap ban so vcM miic 11,9% cua nam ngoai.
Thir hai, lam giam gia tri cua lupng ngoai te d u trii. Xuat khau tang manh trong nhimg nam gan day da giiip nen kinh te mcii ndi nay xay dimg ducpe ngudn d y tni ngoai te 1cm nhat the gicii. Viec ddng USD mat gia se khien luepng trai phieu Trung Qudc dang nam cua Bp Tai chinb My bi giam gia, nghia la d u trii ngoai te ciia Trung Qudc ciing bi giam theo. Hien d y trir ngoai bdi eiia Trung Qudc da len den eon sd 1.900 ty USD, trong dd 307o la trai phieu My.
Thir ba, gay thiet bai cho eac ngan hang eua Trung Qudc. Theo ueic tinh, eac ngan bang Trung Qudc dang nam giu trai phieu eua cac ngan hang thua Id d My da bi thiet hai len den hang chuc trieu USD.
BlgU 0 6 2: CHi s 6 SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX (SCI) TAI THUONG HAI (Tinh dSn 21/11/2008)
1000
1/2008
TilCfeyik T H A N G 12/2CK>8
3/2008 5/2008 7/2008 9/2008 21/11/2008
Thir tu, tdc dp tang trucing FDI cham lai. Theo Bp Thuong mai Trung Qudc, trong 9 thang dau nam 2008 FDI tai Trung Qudc tang 39,97,, va chi tieu eua cac cPng ty nucie ngoai tang 74,4 ty USD. Tuy nhien, FDI trong thang 9/2008 ehi dat 6,64 ty USD so vdi muc binh quan 8,3 ty USD tir dau nam den nay.
Cd the thay tac dpng cua khung hoang tai cbinh toan cau ddi vcM FDI da bat dau trd nen ro rang sau kbi thi trudng chiing khoan toan cau bi reri ty do. Theo mdt chuyen gia phan tich thupc Td chuc giam sat kinh te Trung Qudc, kbi ma kinh te My va EU bat dau lam vao khiing hoang, vdn qudc te se rut khdi cac thi trucmg mcii ndi va quay trd lai qudc gia ban dau. Vi vay. vdn FDI vao Trung Qudc va eac tbi trucing mcri ndi sS trd nen kho khan hon trong bdi canh thj truPng the gidi cd nhieu bien dpng.
Thic ndm, gia cd phieu tr§n thi trudng Trung Qudc sut giam, ddng thdi thi trudng bat dpng san suy yeu.
Trong xu hucing sut giam gia cua thi trudng chung khoan toan cau, tb|
trucmg chiing khoan Trung Qucic da sut giam manh vcii miie giam 69"/t, ke) tir dau nam den nay (xem Bieu do 2).
Tiiif sdu, gay tam ly hoang mang cho nha dau tu va ngucri dan. So veii chau Au thi cho den nay, chau A it chiu anh hudng cua cudc khung hoang nav bon. Tuy nhien, vu be bdi
TAI CHJNH OUrtC TF A H O I N H A P mdd day tai Bank of East Asia (BEA) - ngan hang Icin t h u 5 d Hdng Kdng da khien ngudi ta hoang s o va n h d lai ky uc d a u buon vao thang 6/1997 kbi s y dau CO ddi vcM d d n g ndi te Thai trd thanh ngdi nd gay ra cupc khung hoang lan ra todn chau A va sau dd la sang Brazil va Nga.
Thic bdy, san xuat cdng nghiep eua Trung Qudc da sut giam lien tuc. Con so n a y tir mire 167o hdi thang 6 da giam xudng ll,47o trong thang 9 va budc sang thang 10 chi cdn 8,27o - mpt m u c tang trudng cdng nghiep thap nha't tir 7 nam qua.
Thic tdm, lupng lao ddng that nghiep d "dai cdng xudng eua thegicM" tang manh. Danh sach nhirng nha m a y cua Trung Qudc la n a n n h a n eua cupc khimg hoang tai cbinh toan cau van dang khdng ngimg keo dai them va ehi tinh rieng tinh Quang DPng, den nay da ed hon 3000 nha may phai sa thai cdng nhan va ddng cua.
Tuy nhien, ben canh nhimg tac ddng, thach thirc khdng nhd neeu tren, thi cudc khiing Iwdng tdi chinh tpdn cdu cimg mang den cho Trung Qudc mdt sd'cahdi:
Thir nhd't, chinb s y that the eiia My tren thi trueing tai chinh qudc te se tao ca hpi cho Trung Qudc xac lap vi the ciia minh tren thi trudng tai chinh toan cau. Ben canh dd, Trung Qudc ciing cd the n i t ra nhieu bai hpc tir cupc khiing hoang tai chinb ciia My de n a n g cap be thdng tai cbinh cua minh.
Thic hai, cudc k h u n g hoang tai chinh da khien cho nhieu
Bang 1
nhan vien, can bd quan ly d Phd Wall bi mat viee va day la c a h d i cho eac ngan hang Trung Qudc thu hiit cae nha quan ly cap cao trong gicii tai chinh, ngan bang.
Thic ba, Trung Qudc la nucie ed lucpng d y t n i ngoai hdi Icin, trong khi My lai d a n g can tien mat, do vay rat cd the My phai nhuepng bd Trung Qudc trong mdt sd va'n de cbinh tri - q u a n sy.
Tai Hdi nghi Di§n d a n Kinh te'The gicM di&n ra tai thanh p h d Thien Tan - Trung Qudc hdi cudi thang 9 vira qua, Thii tucing Trung Qudc On Gia Bao khang dinh: bat chap cudc khimg hoang tai chinh toan cau, nhiing nen mong co b a n eua kinh te Trung Qudc khdng bi thay ddi va cdc chinh sach kinh te cua Nha nucie bien van td ra hieu qua. Viec Trung Qudc d u y tri tang trucing nhanh va dn dinh se la yeu to tdt nhat gnip dn dinh tinh binh kinh te the gidi. Trong bdi canh lam phat Hep tuc tang cao, thach thuc Icin nha't hien nay ddi vcri cac nha hoach dinh chinb sach Trung Qudc la giir can bang giiia thiic day tang trucing, tao them viec lam vcii kiem che siic ep tang gia tieu diing. Tbii tudng Trung Qudc nhan manh, nude nay se tiep tuc day manh cai each m d cira, tang cueing cai each kinh te va thiic day tai ca cau chinb tri.
Ddng thcii, se Hep tuc theo dudi cac dudng Idi chinh sach m e m deo, linh boat n h u n g than trpng d4 dpi phd vcii Hnh binh khung hoang chung hien nay. Sy lanh manh cua cac dinh che tai chinh
CAC MOC C A T GIAM LAI SUAT CUA TRUNG QUOC NAM 2008 1
Ngay
16/09/2008 9/10/2008
30/10/2008
27/11 /2008
Lai suat
LS cho vay LS cho vay LS huy dOng LS cho vay LS huy dOng LS cho vay LS huy dpng
Trycrc eJieu chinh (%)
7,47 7,20 4,14 6,93 3,87 6,66 3,60
Sau c3ieu chinh (%)
7,20 6,93 3,87 6,66 3,60 5,58 2,52
Mire (Jleu chinh ((3lem %)
0,27 0.27 0,27 0.27 0.27 1,08 1,08
52
eiia Trung Qudc dang dupe tang cudng va kha nang thu loi n h u a n cung nbir ddi phd vdi rui ro cung ducpe tang len. Kha n a n g thanh khoan cua thi trueing ddi d a o va he thd'ng tai chinh trong Hnh trang dn dinh va an toan se giiip Trung Qudc try viing trude nhiing tac ddng tieu eye tir ben ngoai. Trung Qudc hoan toan tin tucing vao sy p h a t trien cua nen kinh te va s y dn dinh ciia be thd'ng tai chinh. Cach thiic tdt nha't de Trung Qudc bd trp the gidi hien nay la tiep tuc d a m bao tang trucing kinh te trong nucie. VcM dan so 1,3 ty ngudi, dn dinh va tang trucing kinh te cao se la mpt s y d d n g g d p Icm lao cho kinh te the gidi.
Theo d u bao trong "Ban Bao cao miia thu 2008" eua Vien khoa hpc xa hdi Trung Qudc cdng bd bdm 10/10, tdc dp tang trudng kinh te 2008 ciia Trung Qudc cd giam n b e , song GDP van se d a t miie 10,17o.
...vd " D a i ke hoqch"
kich thich kinh te
Nhirng tac d d n g ngay cang sau rdng cua k h u n g hoang tai chinh toan cau da d a n tdi viec Trung Qudc phai dieu cbinb lai chinh sach tai kbda va chinb sach tien te trong may thang qua. Chinh p h u nude nay da bupc phai kich cau tieu diing trong nude trong bdi canh cac ddi tac t h u a n g mai gap khd khan va ncM Idng chinh sach Hen te. Chi trong 3 thang tir thang 9 den thang 11, Trung Qudc da lien tiep 4 lan cdng bd giam lai suat (xem Bang 1) va 2 lan dieu chinb giam ty le d y trir bat budc ddi vdi cae ngan hang thuang .mai, d u a ty le nay tir 17,57o xudng cdn 167o. Hien lai sua't cho vay e a ban ddng NDT da giam xudng cdn 5,587o. Dieu nay cho thay Trung Qudc dang theo dudi cbinh sach Hen te ncM long vira phai va cbinb sach tai khoa tich eye.
Tuy nhien, cupc khiing hoang tai cbinb teian cau da tac d p n g m a n h bon d y doan va bude Cbinb pbii Trung Qudc phai hanh d d n g them. Ngay
Tai Chinh THANG 12/2008
9/11 vira qua, Chinh phii Trung Qudc da cdng bd mpt ke hoach tri gia 4000 ty NDT, tuong duong 586 ty USD nham hd trp tang trucing kinh te cua nueie nay trong bdi canh kinh te the gidi dang ed nguy co reri vao suy thoai. Ke hoach kich thich kinh te'ciia Trung Qudc dupe dua ra khi cac nen kinh te khac tren the gidi n h u My, Nhat, Han Qudc, Uc...ciing da cdng bd cac ke hoach kich thich kinh te Icin nham hd trp tang trueing.
Ke hoach nay cua Trung Qudc tuong duong vcri 1/5 GDP cua nude nay trong nam 2007 va se dupe keo dai tcM nam 2010. Theo ke hoach, khoang 100 ty NDT se dupe sii dung ngay trong quy IV/2008.
Dai ke hoach da de ra 20 nhdm gidi phdp thuc day nhu cdu tieu dimg trpng nu&c vd kich thich kich te Trung Qiipc bao gdm:
1. Thiic day viee xay d y n g cac cdng trinh nha d mang tinh phiic lpi.
Khuyen khich bon trong viec xay dung nha ebo thue, cai tao khu nha leu, thyc tbi cac cdng trinh cho dan du muc djnh cu, m d rpng hem viee tbi diem cai tao nha cho nong thdn.
2. Thiic day viec xay dyng co sd ba tang ndng thdn. Day manh viec xay dyng cac cdng trinh nude sach va dudng sa cho khu vyc ndng thdn, hoan thien mang lueM dien ndng thon, day nhanh tien dp xay dimg cae cong trinh thuy Icpi Icm va gia cd he thdng xii ly nude thai dpc bai, day m a n h viec cai tao be thP'ng tudi nueVe tiet kiem. Tang cueing cdng tac giam ngheo.
3. Day nhanh viec xay d y n g CCT sd ha tang Icin nhu duemg sat, dudng sa.
xay dyng mpt sd tuyen dueimg trpng diem chuyen chd hanh khach, tuyen ducmg chuyen van tai than va tuyen ducwg sat cbinh cho mien Tay. Hoan thien mang lucri ducing cao tdc, sjip xep viec xay d y n g tuyen d u d n g san bay chinh va cac nhanh khu vyc mien Trung va Tay. Day nhanh viee cai tao mang lircVi dien thanh phd.
4. Thiic day cae nganh y te, \ a n hoa, giao due phat trien. Tang eucmg xay dimg CO sci ha tang cho be thdng djch vu y te, day manh \iee cai tao ky tiic xa cho trudng cap I va cap II ei khu vyc neing thdn mien Trung va mid-n Tay, xay dyng cac trueVng hpc dac thii va nha van hoa cho cae huyen tbi thupc khu vuc mien Trung va mien Tay.
5. Tang cuong xay d y n g mPi trudng sinh thai. Tang cudng xay d y n g cac co sd xu ly nude d nhiem, rac thai thanh phd va phdng ngira d nhiem nude tai cae luu vuc trpng diem, tang cueing trdng mdt sd rimg phdng bp trpng diem va xay dung cPng trinh bao ve tai nguyen rimg ty nhien. Khuyen khich xay d y n g cac cdng trinh tie't kiem nang lucmg va giam trir chat thai.
rdng quy md cho \ a y hpp ly, khuyen khich cho vay ddi vcM cac cdng trinh trpng diem, "tam nong", doanh nghiep \'ira va nhd ddi mcii cdng nghe hay sap nhap; bdi dudng
\'a ciing ed tang trueing Hn dung Heu dimg mang tinh then ehdt.
Trucie khi ke hoach kich thich kinh te nay ducpe cdng bd tbi nhieu td chuc d y bao GDP eiia Trung Qudc trong nam 2009 se tang nhieu nhat la 7,57o.
Ngay 9/11 Chinh phu Irung Quoc AQ cong bo ke hogch tri gid 4000 }y NDI, fuong dutrng 586 ty USD nham ho fro tang truong kinh te cua nutx ndy trong boi cdnh kinh te the gioi dang co nguy co roi vdo suy thodi. Iheo ke hogch, khodng 100 ty NDI se duoe SI/dyng ngay trong quy IV/2008.
6. Tang eucmg nang luc ty cbii sang tao va dieu chinh ccr cau nganh nghe. Khuyen khich thanh lap cac nganh nghe ky thuat cao, tien tien va khuyen khich nganh dich \ u phat trien .
7. Thiic day cdng tac tai thiet cac khu vuc bj thien tai.
8. Nang cao thu nhap ebo ndng dan va cu dan thanh thi. Tang gia thu mua lucmg thuc tdi thi&u, tang muc bii dap gidng cay luong thyc, may mdc...cho ndng dan, tang thu nhap ebo cac bd ndng dan. Nang cao mire dai ngp phiic Icpi cho cae dpi tupng thupc nhdm cd thu nhap thap, tang bd trp bao hiem tdi thieu cho ndng thdn va thanh phd, tiep tuc nang cao luong huu CO ban cho can bd cdng nhan \'ien da lam viec d khu vyc doanh nghiep va tang muc bd trp dpi sdng cho eac ddi tupng nam trong dien lai dai.
9. Thyc hien cai each thue gia tri gia tang ddi vdi tat ca eac nganh nghe va khu virc, khuyen khich doanh nghiep ddi mcri ky thuat, giiip doanh nghiep giam dupe 120 ty NDT ti(!'n thue.
10. Tang them mire dp khuyen khich tai chinh ddi vcM tang trueing kinh to. Xoa bd ban che quy mP cho vay tin dung ddi \cri eac NHTM, mci
Tuy nhien cimg theo cae td chirc tren thi ke hoach nay se giiip GDP ciia Trung Qucic tang them 2% trong nam 2009.
Ben canh Ki' boaeb kich thich kinh te nay, Trung Qucic cung Nhat Ban, Han Qucic va 10 qucic gia ASEAN da nhat tri danh khoang 80 ty USD de thanh lap mpt quy d y trir ngoai bdi chung trong nira dau nam 2009 nham bao ve ddng tien ciia minh khdi anh hucmg cua cupc khiing hoang tai chinh. Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc se ddng gdp 807o vao quy nay, phan tien cdn lai se do 10 qudc gia ASEAN la Brunei, Campucbia, In- donesia, Lao, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thai Lan va Viet Nam dPng gpp.
Nhin chung, nhiing dien bien ciia eupe khiing hoang tai cbinb toan cau hien van cPn bet sue phirc tap va khd lueing dupe bet nguy eoeiing nhu hau qua eua no, tuy nbii'n nhirng nd lire tren eiia Cbinh pbii Trung Qucic, dae biet la Dai ke hoach tri gia 586 ty USD da phan nao khien cho nguen dan ciia nude nay cung nhu eac qudc gia khac vimg tin hem. Hy vpng Trung Qucic se"' han chi' dircK tcii da nhinig tac dong tir cupc khung hoang tai ehmb toan can cimg nhu gdp sue hem nira cung the gun \ue,rt qua ccm bao nay lA
TMciilnli TMAKiri l o / o n r m 53
