Nghiln cu-u Quic tis61 (92), 3/2013:141-157.
NHIN LAI MpT SO THACH THU'C DOI VpI TifeN TRINH LIEN KET AN NINH
KHU V^TC DONG A HIEN NAY
Ths. Nguyen The Hdng Tdm tdt
Ddng A dang ddn trd thdnh mot vdnh dai kinh ti khu vice chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang vd dugc du bdo Id khu vice phdt trien ndng dgng nhdt thi hy 21. Tuy vgy, khi de cap den vdn di lien kit an ninh, mgt sd nhd nghien cicu cho rdng day Id mdt khu vuc an ninh khdng chdc chdn bdi vi qudc gia ndo cUng mudn khdng dinh vi Ihi cua minh nen thieu di mgt su lien ket cdn thiet vi lgi ich chung. Bin cgnh do, nhieu vdn di khuc mdc trong lich su cdn keo ddi den nay cung gop phdn lam cho khd ndng lien ket khu vuc bi yiu dt Ddy cung chinh Id nhitng noi dung dugc phdn tich trong bdi viit ndy.
Khu vyc Ddng A ngay cang nhdn dupe sy quan tam cua the gidi khdng chi vd mdc tdng trudng kinh te ngogn muc hdng nam md cdn vdi cdc tranh luan vl sang kiln, giai phap nhdm tidn tdi xay dyng mpt cdng ddng chung - Cdng ddng Ddng A. Td sau khung hodng tdi chinh nam 1997, qua trinh nay chinh thue dupe bdt dau vdi thdnh tyu ban dau dupe
" GiSng vi6n, Dai hpc D6ng Thip. Nhihig quan dilm trong Mi viet la y kiln ca nhan cua tic gii, khong nhdt thilt phan iiji quan dilm ciia ca quan nai tac gia cong lie.
Cde vdn di Qudeti ghi nhdn ma dinh eao la cdc Hpi nglu Thupng dinh Ddng A (EAS) thdng qua nhimg cam ket mgnh md tao ndn trien vpng, mdc dp kha thi cho viec xay dyng cdng ddng chung ciia khu vuc thdnh hi?n thyc. Tuy nhien, con dudng tiln tdi Cong ddng Ddng A cdn bi thdch thue bdi nhilu ylu tl vi Ddng A dupe xem Id khu vyc "an ninh khdng chdc chdn", "da trd thanh mpt noi ngdy cdng nguy hiem... day bdt In cu va nguy co mdi". Nhan dinh nay hoan todn cd co sd dya trdn cdc didn bien gdn day. Vipc chi ra nhung thach thdc ddi vdi tidn trinh lidn kit an ninh Ddng A de tim kilm nhirng gidi phdp thdo gd, tgo dpng lye thue ddy tidn trinh thdnh lap cgng ddng Ddng A Id mpt nhiem vy quan trpng ddi vdi cdc qudc gia trong khu vyc Ddng A hidn nay.
Thyc trang tien trinh lien ket an ninh Ddng A hien nay Tu sau khi Chien tranh Ignh kdt thiic, xu thd todn edu hda, khu vuc hda dien ra mdt cdch manh me tgo nen nhieu ca hpi hpp tdc da phucmg giua cac qudc gia. Trong bdi cdnh do, vide xdy dyng cpng ddng Ddng A dang trd thdnh mdt trong nhihig van dd trpng tdm vd nli bat nhdt khu vyc. Gidi lanh dgo cac nude cd quyen loi tai khu vye Iudn tin tudng ve tridn vpng ciia cdng ddng ndy se thanh hidn thyc trong tuong lai vi lien kit Ddng A Id xu thi khdch quan, nhimg kit qua dgt dupe td khi tien trinh lien kdt dupe bdt dau khdi ddng gdp phdn tang cudng thdm Idng tin cho cac qudc gia da vd dang tham gia qua trinh lidn kit nay. Theo do, mpt sd ket qua budc ddu da dgt dupe:
Thu nhdt, Didn dan an ninh khu vye ASEAN (ARF) ra ddi nam 1994, vdi 27 thdnh vien hidn nay bao gdm hau hdt cdc qudc gia dang c6 nhirng mdu thuan, tranh chap ldnh hai, bien gidi, tdm ly nghi ngai lln ' LSn d^u tien t6 chlrc vio thing 12/2005 tai Ma-lai-xi-a.
^www.nca fp.org/.../06%20East%20Asian%20Security%20Challenges.pdf
Nghiin ciru QuSc tisS 1 (92)
nhau trong khu vyc. ARF da thanh cdng khi trd thdnh mpt dien dan ddi thogi quan trpng cho cac vdn dl an ninh truydn thdng va phi truyen thdng d chau A. Dien ddn cho phdp cae quic gia thdnh vidn du la nude Idn hay nude nhd trao ddi mpt each cdi md, thdng thdn cdc van de gay mdt Idng tin giiia cdc bdn, mang lai sy binh ddng trong quan h$ qudc tl, tao ndn mdc dp hdi long tdi uu giiia cdc nude trong qud trinh ddm phdn. Nguydn tdc eao nhdt cua dien ddn la khdng can thiep vao cdng viec ndi bd ciia cdc nude khac vd sy dong thugn dl giai quylt cdc vdn dl an ninh khu vyc.
Mdc du dupe nhdn dinh ARF ehi Id mpt dien ddn khi cdc y kidn dua ra chi c6 y nghTa tham khdo, chua ddp dng dupe nhu cau gidi quyet bat ddng ciia khu vyc vdi nhung gid tri phdp ly mang tinh rang bupe nhung cdc y kien, quan dilm dl egp trong dien ddn dd cd tac dpng rat Idn den dpng thdi ngoai giao, each hanh xd, nhdt Id giua cac nude dang cd bit ddng, tranh chdp.
Thic hai, co chl hpp tdc ASEAN +3 chinh thue bdt ddu td cudc gdp tai Ma-ni-la thang 11/1999 gida ASEAN vdi ba doi tac Ddng Bde A (Tmng Qude, Nhat Bdn, Hdn Qudc). Co chl nay khdng chi thue ddy hpp tac tren ITnh vuc thuong mgi, tdi chinh md cdn gdp phan tang cudng phdi hop bao ddm an ninh cho sy hpp tdc giiia cac nude. Ddy la sy hpp tdc tat ylu, phu hpp vdi bli cdnh todn edu hda, khu vyc hda dang gia tang mgnh md vdi nhiing thdi eo vd thach thue hien hiiu. Trong cdc hdi nghi cap cao, ldnh dgo cdc nude Iudn khdng dinh co che hpp tdc ASEAN +3 se Id mpt phuang tien chinh dl dgt dupe cae muc tidu lau dai xay dyng cdng ddng Ddng A vd ddng gdp vdo sy phdt triln ben vChig trong khu vyc.
Mdc dii edc nude tham gia co chl ndy ddu nham muc dich nang cao "vai trd la ngudi elm Idi" trong khu vyc nhung dd lgi Id co hpi de edc nude gia tdng hpp tdc, xdy dyng long tin. "Ngudi cdm Idi" trudc hit phdi trdnh the hi?n y dd hay tham vpng tgo ra tdm ly ngd vyc tir cdc ddi tdc. Trong
3/2013 143
Cdc vdn de QuSc ti xu thi hipn nay, cdc nude diu khdng muln gdy ra sy chia re dd dnh hudng din tiln trinh hpp tac vi loi ich chung cho qudc gia vd cho cd khu vyc. Cd thi ndi eo chl ASEAN +3 Id mpt diln ddn chinh thue dl cac nude bay td chinh kiln vl nhidu vdn dd lien quan, trong do cd gidi quyet nhiing vdn dl khuc mdc, cac van bdn ky kit, tuydn bd dupe thdng qua la van bdn phdp ly de cac ben lien quan hanh dpng.
Thu ba, Hdi nghi Thupng dinh Ddng A (EAS), du Id mot edu true mdi dupe hinh thdnh vdo ndm 2005 nhung nd dd trd thanh mdt dien dan quan trpng tu vdn cac van de an ninh, chinh trj, kinh tl vdi sy tham gia cua nhilu nude khu vyc chdu A - Thdi Binh Duong. Kit qud cua hpi nghj khdng phdi luc ndo ciing tgo sy dong thugn, tilng ndi chung giiia cac quoc gia lien quan vd mdt sd van dd, trong do ehinh tri vd an ninh van dupe coi la vdn dl mdu chot, nhay cdm, nhung qua do cdc nude deu nhgn thdc dupe tdm quan trpng cua van dd dang thdo luan: do Id Ipi ich ciia khu vyc edn phai dat trudc Ipi ich qudc gia bdi vi cde bdt ddng, tranh chdp cd sdc dnh hudng toan khu vye khi nd khdng dupe kiem soat trong ban dinh. Cde nude den vdi hpi nghi vdi mdt hinh dnh tich cue sd giiip gidm di tdm ly nghi nggi lan nhau. Tir ndm 2005 din nay, EAS Iudn la nl lye chung cua cde nude thanh vidn nhdm thdc ddy sy phdt triln In dinh cho khu vyc, sd lupng thanh vidn khdng ngung tang cho thay sy tang cudng hpp tac, thiic ddy vide xay dyng long tin, hilu bilt lln nhau gifta cae nude lidn quan Id can thidt. Ddi vdi khu vyc Ddng A, khi cdc nuoc dang hudng tdi vide xay dyng mdt cdng ddng chung thi EAS se gdp phSn tgo them nln tang vdng chdc cho tiln trinh lidn kit ndy.
Thu tu, su tdn tai cdc lidn minh qudn sy (nhu giua My vdi cdc nude Nhgt Bdn, Hdn Qudc, 6-xtrdy-lia, Phi-lip-pin, Thai Lan...) tgi Ddng A, mdc du gdy ra sy quan nggi cho mpt sd nude nhung vl co bdn cdc lien minh nay gdp phdn nhdn mgnh tinh ran de, cdnh bdo, tinh can bdng Iv^
Nghiin edu QuSc tisS 1 (92)
lupng nhdm ngdn chdn nhung nude cd tu tudng "nude Idn", "thieu minh bgeh" trong chi tidu qudn sy, an ninh, quoc phdng. Lien minh quan sy cd the dupe coi nhu md thdc lay can bdng ddi khang dd muu clu an ninh.
Lien minh qudn sy se gdp phdn bdo ddm hda binh, an ninh, phin vinh cho khu vuc md nd ed mdt nlu theo diing nhu cdc cam kdt dd dupe ndu ra. Lien kdt an ninh Ddng A cd thd due kit kinh nghidm tu hogt ddng cua cdc lidn minh quan sy dang hipn "didn trong khu vuc ndy.
Nhu vdy, vide tang cudng ddi thogi an ninh - chinh tri gida cdc qudc gia trong khu vyc, trao ddi tin tuc tinh bao, nhung nd lye chung trong vi?c phdng chong cdc logi tpi phgm, cung nhau xdy dung bp quy tdc umg xu, thdng qua mpt so co chl gidi quylt tranh chap trong thdi gian qua da tao nln tdng cho vide thye thi cdc cam kdt da dupe tuyen bd trong cac hdi nghi, dien ddn an ninh khu vyc. Ddng A dang ngay edng dupe nhan di^n Id mpt khu vuc quan trpng cua the gidi tren nhidu linh vyc.
Trien vpng ve vi$c hinh thdnh cpng ddng Ddng A ndi chung vd cdng ddng an ninh ndi ridng- mang tinh khd thi cao vi nd Iudn Id de tai chinh yeu trong edc hdi nghi cdp cao dien ra hang ndm giiia cdc nude tham gia.
Trong tidn trinh dd, ASEAN dupe xem la tdc nhan quan trpng gdn ket qud trinh xdy dyng cpng ddng vi hpp tdc vd ehinh tri, an '^^^ trong td chuc nay cd thi dupe xem Id hinh mdu cho hpp tdc chinh trj, an ninh Ddng A sau ndy. Tuy nhien, dl tiln trinh Uen kdt an ninh thanh hien thyc phdi vupt qua mpt logt rao cdn, dd chinh Id nhiing ydu td nghich vd cung la nhiing thdch thue doi vdi tiln trinh lien kit dd.
Nhwng nhan to can trd tien trinh lien kit an ninh Dong A Thdch thdc vi tranh chdp Idnh tho
Thu nhdt, tranh cdi vi chu quyen gida Nga vd Nhgt Bdn vi nhdm ddo Kuril theo ten ggi cita Nga vd vitng ldnh thd phia Bdc theo ten ggi
Cdc vdn di QuSc ti cua Nhgt Bdn. Vi^c tranh c h i p d mpt sd ddo nhd da khdng dupe gidi quylt mdt each thda dang trudc day, de lgi nhiing h? qud keo dai eho ddn nay. Dpng thdi ciia hai ben ngdy cdng lam cho tinh hinh them cdng thang.
Vi du sy ki$n ngdy 1/11/2010 T i n g t h i n g Nga D. Medvedev dd tdi thdm ddo Kunashir, mpt trong b i n hdn dao thupc qudn dao Nam Kuril, hay vao trung tudn thdng 5/2011 phdi doan do Phd Thu tudng Nga Sergei Ivanov dan ddu d i n thdm qudn ddo tranh c h i p va dieu ndy dd Iam d i y len mpt Idn sdng phdn d l i t u phia ehinh phu Nhdt Bdn. Nga da timg tuydn bo bdn hdn dao tranh c h i p d Thdi Binh Duong Id mot vung quan trpng cua nude Nga. Cdc cupc hpi ddm gida hai bdn chua bao gid di ddn mdt gidi phdp tdi uu. Hai nude d i u nhdn thdc dupe t i m quan trpng cua vdn dd vd khd ndng dan tdi xung ddt vu trang Id khd. Trong cude ggp ngdy 28/1/2012, Ngogi trudng Nhgt Koichiro Gemba vd ngudi ddng cap Nga Sergey Lavrov dua ra vi?c nghidn edu y tudng hudng tdi mdt Id trinh hpp tac nhdm mang lgi Ipi ich kinh te cho cd hai nude d nhdm ddo ndy. "(5 muc dp ndo do, day la mpt tien bp. Nhiing gi chung ta dang chung kien Id dudng loi ngogi giao mem mdng hon cda ca hai ben, dupe thue day bdi yeu td kinh td vd didu ndy se mang lai Ipi ich cho cd Nga va Nhdt Ban.
Dii khdng cd k l hogch hpp tac ndng lupng, nhung Td-ki-d vd Mat-xco-va dang d vi thd tdt va cd du giai phap chidn lupc de gidp cho cac nd luc kinh td chung dom hoa kdt trdi"^. Cd t h i day la mot gidi phdp tdt, nhung tinh trang cdng thdng giua hai nude luon hidn hiiu.
Thd hai, tranh chdp giQa Trung Qude vd Nhgt Bdn vi qudn ddo Diiu Ngu theo each ggi cua Trung Qudc vd Senkaku theo cdch ggi cua Nhdt Bdn. Mpt nguydn nhdn gay ra lanh nhgt giira hai nude khi vin de ndy dupe khoi gpi, nhdt la giai doan hien nay khi Trung Quoc dang troi day de trd thdnh mpt eye ciia t h i gidi, trudc h i t Id canh tranh vdi Nh^t 'http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-01/29/c_13138I458.htm
Nghien edu QuSc tisS 1 (92)
Bdn vl vi tri, vai trd ldnh dgo chdu A. Xudt pMt td Ipi ich kinh tl - chinh tri nen dan den nhftng phdt ngdn manh md di din hanh ddng td cdc ben dd khdng dinh quyln sd hiru. Cde khdo sdt dia chat khdng dinh ddy Id vdng cd trii lupng diu md khd Idn, hon niia nd ndm sdt tuyin dudng bien quic td mang tinh chiln lupc vi thd dd phdt sinh tranh chip vl Ipi ich giira hai nude. Quan hd ngogi giao Tnmg - Nhdt trd nen cdng thing khi mpt loat cdc su kidn diln ra td ndm 2010 din nay. "Quylt tam cua chinh phu Trung Quoc trong viec bdo ve chu quyen trdn qudn ddo Dilu Ngu vd quyen Ipi ngudi dan Id rat vihig chdc vd kidn dinh". Theo Trung Qudc, nlu nhdn nhupng thi nude nay se td ra ydu thd hon trong quan dilm tranh chdp d qudn ddo Hodng Sa, Trudng Sa vdi mpt sd nude Ddng Nam A.
Trong khi do, cac ddng phai d Nhat eoi day nhu mdt con bai cho chiln dich van ddng tranh cd. Dpng thdi mdi nhdt Id tuydn bd eua thi trudng Td-ki-d trong thang 4/2012 loan bdo quydn gdp tdi ehinh tu ngudi dan mua lai mpt sd dao khdng ngudi d nhdm bdo vd qudn ddo, ddy Id hdnh dpng don phuang tu phia Nhdt Ban, Trung Qude khd long md tu bd "ehu quyln" cua hp. Vdo ngay 16/5/2012, cudc hpi dam cap cao giiia dai dien hai nude di den quan diem chung Id nhdt tri thdnh lap mdt co cau tu vdn cap cao cdc vdn dl vd bien, day chi cd the la tuyen bd mang tinh tam thdi khi tranh chap giira hai nude cdng thdng.
Thu ba, tranh chdp gida Nhdt Bdn vd Hdn Qudc vi qudn ddo Takeshima theo cdch ggi cua Nhdt Bdn vd Dokdo theo cdch ggi cua Hdn Qudc Day la nhdm ddo nam giiia vung bien giGa Nhdt Bdn vd Han Quic, gim hai ddo nhd, mpt sd bdi dd ngdm. Cd hai bdn ddu dua ra nhung bdng chirng cho rdng minh that su mdi Id nude cd chu quyen. Cd theo chu ky, khi vdn dd khdng dupe nhac den thi nd diu di, ndu mdt trong hai ben cd dpng thdi khang dinh chu quydn thi nd trd thdnh van de can '' http://www thesaigontimes vn/Home/thegioi/ghinhan/40314]
Cdc vdn di Qudc ti trd hoat dpng ngogi giao giiia hai nude. Tu ndm 1952, Hdn Quoc da tuydn bo ehu quyen ddi vdi them lye dia bao quanh ban ddo Tridu Tien rpng ddn 200 hdi ly. Nhdt Bdn cho rang "day la hanh dpng don phuong, thilu eo sd phdp ly va thilu tdn trpng ludt phdp qudc tl... Chinh phu Nhdt Ban khong chap nhan sy thira nhan ay cua chinh phd Han Qudc". Nhgt Ban da timg tuyen b l Idy ngay 22/2 td nam 2005 Id "ngay Takeshima" va ndu Idn quan didm s6 gidi quydt tranh chip trong hda binh bang mpi each.
Chinh phu Nhdt Bdn cung da cd y dinh dua vu vide len Tda an Qudc tl (ICJ) khi phia Han Qudc thieu tinh mem deo trong dam phdn.
Tdm lgi, tranh chip lanh thd tai khu vuc Ddng A hi?n nay Iudn la tdm didm gdy ra nhiing cdng thdng trudc het ddi vdi cde nude lien quan.
Den nay, sy tranh chap ehua cd hdi kit, nd chi lang diu mdt thdi gian sau dd bung len, dieu ndy gay dnh hudng cu thi ddi vdi bdn thdn cdc nude tranh chdp, tgo nen tdm ly quan nggi lan nhau. Cdc tuydn bl cumg rdn, kem theo do Id nhiing ddng thai tdng cudng an ninh quic gia dua ddn vide hgn chd hpp tae tren nhidu ITnh vyc, trong do cd co chl hpp tac an ninh chung nhdm bdo dam sy hda binh, dn dinh cho sy phat triln npi bp timg nude. Ddi vdi khu vyc, nhdng tranh chip ndy cung vdi nhiing bat dn vdn cd trong khu vyc nay Iam cho cac nude Idng gilng lidn kl trong khu vyc Iudn dupe dat trong tinh trang cdng thdng m0t khi tranh chip giua cae ben khd kilm sodt. Dilu nay Id rit ro rdng khi trong quan he Idng gieng an ninh cua mdt nude, nhdm nude bi de dpa se cd hdnh dpng dap tra gdy dnh hudng den an ninh cua nude kia vd ngupc lgi. Gia tang tidm lye qudc phdng, chi tidu quan sy, tdp hpp lidn minh, tiln hdnh tgp trdn... cua cdc nude trong tdm dnh hudng tit nhien se dupe uu tien dl
' Hoang Minh HSng, 7/2006, "Tranh chap nh6m dAo Takeshima/Tokdo trong quan h§
Mhat - Hin va anh hudng cua n6 din moi tnrimg an ninh D6ng A", Tap chi Nghien cuu Dong Bdc A, s6 5, trang 5.
Nghien edu Qudc tisd 1 (92)
ph6ng mpi tinh hudng bSt trie x4y ra. Nguy ca d6 va long tin giOa c4c qu6c gia (co so quan trpng cho viSc tita tdi thanh lap ca che an ninh chung cho toin khu vuc) se xuat hien. Vi$c lua chon phucmg hudng ph4t triSn cung nhu bien phap giai quySt tranh chip lanh th6 se co anh huang tr^c tiip din m6i quan he giiia cac nuoc, nSn hoa binh on djnh cho toan khu vuc. Mpt ca chi an ninh chung chi dupe Vita kit, that chjt khi long tin dupe dinh hinh vi xay dung.'
Tam ty nghi ngai lan nhau
Nhdt Bdn dupe cho la nguyen nhan chinh gSy ra sir "canh giac" tu cdc nu6c lang giing Dong A vi nhiing gi ma tu tuong Dai Dong A ciia nuoc nay tiin hanh trong Chien tranh thi giai thil hai van c6n la vet hSn trong ky lic lich s i ciia mpt so nuac. Nhat Ban ngay nay 14 mpt cuong quic cua thi gioi tren ITnh vuc kinh ti. Ki tCi sau Chiin tranh thi gicri thil hai, khu vuc chau A vin duac thilc diy boi nhung dpng luc kinh te trong mo hinh dan siu bay ma nuac nay la chu siu dau dan. Tuy nhien, ve m^t chinh trj, Nhat Ban cam thiy chua tuong xirng tren chinh truong quoc te, do vay nuoc nay da co nhiing chinh sach, bi?n phap de tSng cuong, khing djnh la mpt cucmg quic tren nhiiu linh vuc. Dieu diu tien ma Nhat Ban quan tam la chu dpng thiic diy tien trinh lien kit cac nuoc khu vuc Dong A thanh mot vanh dai kinh ti, chinh tri cua thi gioi. Tuy nhien, mpt vin di nan giai dat ra dii voi Nhat Ban la nhiing vin di do lich sir di lai trong mii quan he vai mpt s6 nuoc Dong A. Mac dii giira mot so quic gia Dong A vi mSt van hoa co net tuong ding, nhung dieu nay khong c6 nghTa mau thuIn giOa cac nuoc se dupe giai quyet dua tren su ding cam vi van hoa. Bp sach giao khoa phat hanh voi nhiing trinh bay thiiu tdn trpng lich sir, cdc cupc viing thdm ngoi din Yasukami gay
' Sen Yasukuni (Tinli qu5c t h k xS, nSm 6 quati Chyudan - Tokyo) xSy dirng nam 1875, thir 14 tpi ph?m chiSn tranh losi A da bj Toa 4n qudc t i ra Ifnli hinh quyet va cac binh sT chet tran (din thing 10/2004 c6 2.266.532 linh Nh|t duoc ghi tSn trong den).
Cdc vdn di Qudc ^ nhidu tranh eai... dupe xem la nhiing nguyen nhan gdy ra edc lan sdng chlng ddi Nhdt Bdn d Trung Quic, Hdn Qudc td nhilu nam qua. Cdu hdi dupe dat ra la tgi sao Nhgt Ban bilt kha rd cdc vin dl ndy se gdy ra phdn ling tu cdc nude ma cu cd tinh khoi gpi vd nhiing phdn irng lam,eho vin dl trd ndn rdc rdi tir phia Han Qudc, Tnmg Qudc cd that sy la can thiet hay khdng, khi ma ngudi ta dem so sdnh thdi dp phdn ung khiem tdn cua mdt sd nude khde d Ddng A ciing bj Nhat Ban chiem ddng trong chiln tranh.
Lien minh My - Nhdt Bdn vdi Hiep udc an ninh khdng thdi hgn ciing Id mot nguydn nhdn gdp phdn gia tdng tam ly nghi nggi ciia cdc nude lang gidng ddi vdi Nhat Bdn. Trong Chidn tranh Ignh, lien minh nay gan ket vdi nhau nham ngdn chan sy lan rpng cua chu nghia cpng san 6 chau A. Chien tranh Ignh ket thue, lien minh do khong suy ydu md ngay cang dupe tang cudng. Cac cdn cd qudn sy, lye lupng qudn dpi My hien dien d Nhdt Ban la mpt minh chimg. Trung Qudc cho rdng, day la hanh ddng de dpa den hda binh, an ninh khu vyc, la mdi de dpa Idn nhit ddi.
vdi nude nay. Lieu rdng, lien minh My - Nhdt cd cdn thilt phdi dupe duy tri, nhat la hidn nay khi hda binh, dn dinh dang la xu hudng chilm uu the.
Rd rang, Nhat Bdn la mot ylu td quan trpng vd dang d vdo mot vi thi luang nan cd the thiic diy hodc ngdn chdn trong mdi quan he My - Trung Qudc. Mac du My vd Nhat deu cd chung quan dilm phdng ngua, ngan chan sy "troi day" cua Trung Qudc, tuy nhidn, viec qua phu thudc vao My cd nguy co lam suy ylu vi thi vd uy tin cua Nhat Bdn trong cdi nhin cda nhilu nude chdu A. Nhdt Bdn than thilt vdi My din ddu thi thdi dp cua cac nude quan tdm ddn lien minh nay ciing vdy.
Trung Qudc vdi quy md ddn sd vd tdc dp phat tridn nhu hidn nay (tu sau cdi each nam 1978) cho thiy nude ndy dang hudng din tdi myc tieu trudc hit la md rdng tdm dnh hudng vd ndm vai trd lanh dao d khu vuc. Day la mdt quy ludt ty nhien. Trung Qudc cung nhu cdc nude khac
Nghien cu-u Quoc tisS 1 (92)
deu cd quyen phdt trien trdn nhieu mdt. Trdn ITnh vye kinh tl, sy phdt triln cda Trung Qude se gdp phdn thdc ddy sy tang trudng khu vyc nhit la trong boi cdnh kinh td - tdi chinh toan ciu khung hoang. Cdc nude ciing se thu dupe nhieu Ipi ich tu thi trudng, vdn dau tu, vien trp, trao ddi khoa hpc - kf thudt... trong vide hpp tdc vdi Trung Qudc. Se Id philn di?n nlu Iudn lo ngai sy troi day eua Trung Qudc liic ndo ciing Id mdt moi de dpa, thay vi lo ngai cdc nude cdn cd chinh sdch thich irng vdi sy thay ddi ndy, xem Trung Qudc Id mdt ddi tdc phat triln chu khdng phdi Id mdt moi de dpa bdi theo tuydn bd cua Trung Qudc, thi nude nay chi troi dgy trong hda binh, Iudn nhdt quan tu tudng chlng bd quyln, khdng xung himg, xung ba. Nhung dieu dang quan tdm la nhung dpng thai, chinh sdch, bidn phdp nhdm dua nude nay tuong xdng vdi tam c5 ddn sd vd lanh thd, cung nhu chieu sau H.cb su vd van hda, da gdy lo nggi cho nhilu nude trong khu vyc nhu Ddng Nam A, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc va ke ca My dac biet la chi tieu ve ngan sdch qude phdng trong bdi cdnh cdng thang vd tranh chap bidn gidi, lanh hai giiia Trung Qudc vdi mdt sd nude trong khu vuc dang gia tdng. Dai dien chinh phu Nhat Ban ngay sau do phdt bieu rang Nhdt Ban se theo doi sat sao cae dien bien d khu vyc trong tuong lai va ydu cdu Trung Qudc minh bach han trong cdc hoat ddng qudc phdng. Lye lupng phdng vd Nhdt Bdn dd tham gia tap trdn chung vdi Phi-lip-pin va My, 0-xtray-lia, Han Qudc vao thang 4/2012; Xinh- ga-po cho biet hai tau chien hien dai cua My se duoc trien khai den nude nay trong ndm sau; An Dp ngdy 7/3/2012 tuyen bd thu nghidm thdnh cdng ten Ida hanh trinh sieu thanh Brahmos... Rd rang mdt cudc chgy dua vu trang ngam dang dien ra tai khu vyc ndy, nguy co xung dot dang thudng tryc xay ra. Xet vd toan cue Trung Qudc khdng phdi Id mdi de
' Nhir sir kien d^u thing 3/2012 khi Trung Quoc th6ng bSo ngan s5ch qu6c ph6ng se tang th6m 11,2% so vdi n3m trudc d6, g§y ra m6t s\r phan irng vk lo ngai t^i cSc nii6c trong khu vuc.
Cdc vdn di Quoc te dpa duy nhit nhung "bit ky sy gia tdng ndo trong ngan sdch qudn su cda **
Trung Qudc se lam trim trpng them sy thilu tin tudng cua cdc qudc gia
chdu A doi vdi Trung Qude". , Nhu vdy, sy trSi day cua chu nghia qudc gia, dan tpc Id mdt trong
nhiing nguydn nhan chinh can trd tidn trinh lidn ket. Cd the coi khu vyc Ddng A la mpt bdc tranh thu nhd cua thi gidi, la noi hi?n di^n cua cdc nude Idn nhu Trung Quoc, Nhdt Bdn, din cdc qude gia nhd, cham phat T triln nhu Ddng Timor, PNG... vdi sy da dang vdn hda (Nho gido, Hdi gido, Phdt gido, Kitd gido...) va da dgng vl chinh tri. Tit cd nhiing dilu ndy gdp phin tao nen bdc tranh da dgng vd mdu sdc tren nhieu ITnh vuc nhung tilm dn nhung vin dl phdc tap vl an ninh. Nhirng nude Idn nhu My, Trung Qudc, Nhgt Bdn dang ddn khdng dinh va xdc lap vai trd lanh dao d khu vyc, dieu nay gay nen mdt sy hoai nghi cho cdc qudc gia d vi the ylu ban, mdi lo nggi "Trung Quoc hda" hay "Nhdt Ban hda", tham chi sy cd mat cua My tai ddy cd thd tao ndn "My hod". Vi thd, cd the khang dinh di ciing vdi xu hudng thdnh lap cpng ddng, lien ket an ninh Ddng A Id sy gia tdng xu hudng "qudc gia hda" cua cde nude Idn. Vi vdy, lidn ket an ninh Ddng A chua thd thdnh cdng trpn ven khi tam ly nghi ngai Idn nhau vdn tdn tai trong suy nghT cdc qudc gia tham gia vao tien trinh nay.
Sg' tdn tgi nhditg diem ndng
Vdn de Ddi Loan, day dupe xem la noi chda dyng thdch thdc nguy hidm nhdt, khi xu hudng dpc lap cua hdn dao nay thanh hi?n thyc. Ndu Trung Qudc dung vii lye thu hdi Dai I^an, didu ndy ddng nghia vdi viec gay ban vdi My va khi cudc chidn di xa hon cd thi bao gdm ca Nhdt B^.
* http://www.petrotimes.vn/the-gioi-phang/ho-so-su-kien/2012/03/trung-quoc-tang-ngan -sach-quoc-phong-the-gioi-lo-ngai
Nghiin cuu QuSc tisS 1 (92)
Ngdy 1/1/1979, My vd Trung Qudc chinh thue thilt Idp quan he ngogi giao, va theo tuydn b l chung, My cdt ddt quan h? dong minh vdi Ddi Loan. Tuy nhien, den nay bdng dang My van cdn in dam trong mli quan h? gifta hai bd eo biln ndy md the hien rd nhdt la vide My thdng qua kl hoach ban vu khi eho Dai Loan tri gid 6 ti USD vao thdng 1/2010,^ vd ngdy 21/09/2011 Oa-sinh-tan ehinh thdc xdc nhgn kl hogch ndng cip may bay chien ddu F-16 A/B cho Ddi Loan vdi tri gid 5,85 ti USD. Trung Qudc da phdn dng manh md dpng thai nay va cho rdng My dd 1dm cho quan hp giua hai bd eo bidn Dai Loan thdm cdng thdng. Trung Qudc coi Dai Loan Id mpt bp phdn cda minh nen vi?c thu hdi ddo ndy Id mdt tit yeu. Trung Qudc da tuydn bd sdn sdng chdp nhan mdt nude hai chl dp.
Neu Tmng Qude "budng" Ddi Loan thi se tgo ra mpt tien le eho cdc viing khac ddi ly khai nhu Tay Tgng va Tdn Cuong, vdn Id hai didm ndng cua nude ndy hien nay. Tren mat tran ngoai giao, My coi Trung Qudc la doi tac quan trpng, nhung neu My tu bd Dai Loan thi cac nude trong khu vyc ke cd Nhdt Bdn rdt cd thi se ddng vl phia Trung Qudc va do sd la sy bat dau thdi ky suy tan cua My. Vi vdy, van de Dai Loan thyc td bao gdm cd mdi quan he gida Trung Quic va My.
Vdn de hgt nhdn tren bdn ddo Triiu Tiin. Day Id he qud dd lai tu chien tranh lanh eua thd ki trudc. Van dd hat nhan ciia Trieu Tien da va dang trd thdnh mdt van dQ qudc td. Khung hoang hat nhdn trdn ban dao Trieu Tien cd tu ddu thap nien 90 the ky 20 keo ddi den nay. Viec chdng minh CHDCND Trilu Tien cd vii khi hgt nhan vdn cdn map md, chi rieng vi§c tinh cae vu thu tdn lua nude nay ciing da trd thanh tieu diem cua thi gidi. Nhilu nhd phdn tich cho ring, Tridu Tidn phat triln vu khi
' S6 vG khi niy chu ylu \k \u khi ph6ng thii, bao gim 114 ten lua Patriot tri gii 2,82 ty USD, 60 miy bay Black Hawk trj gii 3,1 ty USD, cic thiSt bj liSn lac cho ham d0i F-16 cua Qii Loan, cac ten liia Harpoon vd tiu tjiim d6.
Cdc vdn di QuScti hat nhdn nhdm ddi liy vidn trp vl luang thue, ndng lirpng vd an ninh.
Cdc bdn tham gia dam phan da cd mot sd ddng thuan Id nlu quic gia Ddng A ndy tir bd chuong trinh hgt nhdn thi sd dap dng mdt phan cdc dfi xuit dupe dua ra. Dii vgy, Trilu Tidn lo nggi rdng, My vd ddng minh s8 tin cdng nlu nude ndy suy ylu khd ndng phdng vd. M5' khdng muln bi len dn la "sen dim", vi thi dd van ddng dua vin dl nay ra quic tl dl tranh thd sy ling hp tu cac nude trong Lidn Hi?p Qudc nhdm gay sdc ep ddi vdi Binh Nhuong. DT nhien. My cung khdng mudn ty minh phdi thue hien "trdch nhidm" vdi CHDCND Tridu Tidn mdt khi hai ben dgt dupe su thda thudn. Cho ddn nay, nhieu cude tiep xuc song phuang, da phuong da dupe md ra nhung sy ddng thudn gida cdc bdn lien quan van chua d^t dupe. Vdy, vin dk hgt nhdn eua Trilu Tidn sd duoc gidi quydt nhu the ndo trong khi da phan cac nude tham gia dam phan la nhiing cudng qudc hat nhan? Day la cuu hdi Idn, mpt phan nut that cho tidn trinh phi h^t nhan hda ban ddo Tridn Tidn.
Tranh chdp Bien Ddng. Biln Ddng'" Id khu vyc thim luc dia rgng Idn, giau tdi nguyen. Nhieu dpng thai tranh chdp cua cdc bdn lien quan da lam cho tinh hinh Bien Ddng trd ndn phuc tap nhu viec Trung Qudc dua quan nham hpp thdc hoa tung bp phan cdc ddo Idn nhd va sau dd vao thdng 2/1992, vdi vide thdng qua luat bien, nude nay da tuyen bd toan b6 chu quydn d hai qudn ddo Idn Hodng Sa va Trudng Sa bit chip sy phan ddi tu cac nude lidn quan, trong dd cd Viet Nam. Tidp dd, vdo thang 11/2007, Qudc vu vien nude CHND Trung Hoa da thdng qua vi?c dua ba qudn dao trdn Bien Ddng, trong do cd hai qudn dao tranh chip vdi Vi?t Nam la Hodng Sa vd Trudng Sa," thudc qudn 1^ cda thanh phi Tam Sa (tinh Hdi Nam). Thang 5/2009 nude nay da gui cdng ham tdi Lien Hi?p '" Hay theo cAch gpi qu6c tS la biln Nam Trung Hoa.
" Trung Quoc gpi la quan dao Tay Sa vi quin dao Nam Sa,
Nghiin ciru QuSc tisS 1 (92)
Quic kem theo mOt bdn dd thd hien dudng ydu sdch 9 dogn tren Biln Ddng (edn gpi Id "dudng lu5i bd"), gdy ra m^t sy phan ddi td nhilu nude cd quyln loi tgi vdng biln ndy. Mac du ngdy 4/11/2002, ASEAN vd Tnmg Quic di din ky kit Tuydn bd vl each ung xu cdc bdn tgi Biln Ddng (DOC), nhung vipc dam bdo thyc thi nhimg cam kit trong DOC cung gdp nhidu trd nggi, 1dm cho vifc gidi quylt vin dl tranh chip d vimg biln gidu tiem ndng nay trd ndn cang thing. Nhidu tdi lieu, bdng chdng ljch su da khdng dupe cde ben lien quan tdn trpng. Nguy eo ton hgi din an ninh khu vyc dang tiem tang td dilm ndng nay. Trong cdc hdi nghi quoc te gin ddy, van de Bien Ddng trd thanh tdm didm cda cde eupc tranh luan dd tim ra gidi phdp tdi uu nhdm gidi quylt van dl Biln Ddng trdn CO sd hda binh van la mpt van dd cdn nhilu trdn trd.
Ket luan
Tir sau khi Chiln tranh lanh kit thue, sy noi Idn ciia chu nghTa quoc gia, Ipi ich, canh tranh tir nhimg vi tri chidn lupc da dua cac nude Ddng A gia tang chi tidu de hi?n dai hod va ndng cip khd ndng qudn sy. Sy da dang chinh tri d khu vyc ciing gdp phdn tao nen nhung khd khan cho sy ddng thudn ve nhiing vdn dd tranh chdp lien quan giua cdc nude vi cde nude ddu cd muc tieu dli ngogi ridng. Trung Quoc dang cd tham vpng vuon len trong vai trd lanh dao chau A, Nga dang tim each trd lgi khu vyc trong cudc canh tranh vdi cac cudng qudc, Han Qudc Iudn mudn thong nhit bdn ddo Trilu Tien dd ed the giir dupe mpt vai trd dpc lap hon trong ngoai giao khu vyc va todn cau, CHDCND Trieu Tien trong mdt thi gidi vdn la mdt "quic gia bi an", Nhgt Bdn dang ra sue "trd lgi" chdu A trong cupc cgnh tranh vai trd lanh dgo chdu lye nay vdi nhieu nude. Q khu vyc Ddng Nam A, cac nude deu mong mudn cd dnh hudng trong khu vyc Idn ban mac du khd ndng cda hp cdn hgn chd. Thdi gian qua mpt
Cdc vdn di QuSc d sd bit In vl ehinh tri, tranh chip bidn gidi... cda mpt sd nude trong khu vyc nay dd ddt ra nhirng thdch thdc nghidm trong cho an ninh khu vuc nay. Tuy nhien, du cdn tin dpng nhilu bit ddng nhung Ddng A khd co thi xdy ra xung d0t vd trang vi noi ddy cdc dien dan da d u ^ lap ra ii tdng khd ndng lidn kit an ninh khu vyc nhu Didn dan An ninh Khu vyc ASEAN (ARF) vdi sy tham gia cua nhidu nude, cac cupc tiep xiic song phuang vd da phuong gida cdc nude dd phan dau eho sy hpp tdc tdng flie trong cac ITnh vyc kinh td, chinh tri, van hda, an ninh. Do vdy, doan ket va hpp tdc trd ndn manh md hon. Vuot qua nhimg thdch thue ndy, Ddng A sd trd thdnh mpt khu vyc an ninh viing chdc mang Igi hda binh cho sy phdt trien thinh vupng cua cac nude cd lien quan. Mudn vdy thi vin de thdnh lap Cdng ddng An ninh Ddng A (EASC) edn phdi dupe thue iky manh me hon. Xdy dyng mpt khu vyc dam bdo an ninh bin virng la iih tdi can thidt trong bdi cdnh hidn nay khi nhiing mau thuan, tranh ch^p, bit ddng, an ninh phi truydn thdng Iudn hi?n hiJu. Hda binh lau ddi khong bang an ninh lau ddi. Cdc muc tieu an ninh bin vimg la co sd bdo dam loi ich sdng cdn va an ninh cua cdc nude thanh vidn, ngan, chgn cdc hi?ii tupng xung dot qudn sy. An ninh ben viing cdn dupe xdy dyng tren co sd tin tudng lan nhau, binh ddng vl Ipi ich, phdi hpp, hpp tdc Idu ddi.
TAI LIEU THAMKHAO
1. Tao Hdng, Chu VTnh Tdi, 2001, Thi ki 21 thi gidi se ra sao, Nxb. Cdng an nhan ddn.
2. Mp Kift, 2006, Bdy cugc ddm phdn sieu cdp, Nxb. Vdn h6a thdng tin, Hd Npi.
3. Trin Anh Phuong, 2007, Chinh tri khu vuc Ddng Bdc A sau chiin tranh lanh, Nxb. Khoa hpc xa hpi.
156
Nghiin cdru Quoc tisS 1 (92)
4. M.Yahuda, 2006, Cdc vdn de chinh tri qude ti a chdu A - Thdi Binh Duang, Nxb. Vdn hpc, TPHCM.
5. Nguyen Thanh Hiln, 2/2005, "Tim hilu vl thyc trgng an ninh khu vyc Ddng A", Tap chi Nghie., i,ua Nhdt Bdn vd Ddng Bdc A, so 1, trang 23 - 28.
6. Hodng Minh Hdng, 7/2006, "Tranh chip nhdm ddo Takeshima/
Tokdo trong quan h | Nhdt - Han vd dnh hudng cua nd ddn mdi trudng an ninh Ddng A", Tap chi Nghien vuu Ddng Bdc A, sd 5, trang 3 - 8 .
7. Trin Trudng Thdy, 9/2009, "ASEAN, Trung Qudc va qud trinh hinh thdnh tuydn bl ung xd cdc ben tgi Biln Ddng", Tgp chi Nghiin cicu Qudc ti, so 3, trang 5 - 24.
8. http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/thegioi/ghinhan/40314]
9. http://www.ncafp.org/.../06%20East%20Asian%20Security%20 Challenges, pdf
10. wviw.nids.go.jp/english/event/symposium/pdf/2000/sympo_e2 000_3.pdf
11. http://vietbao.vn/The-gioi/My-chinh-thuc-ban-vu-khi-cho-Dai- Loan/20892344/159/
12. http://www.vnexpress.net/vietnam/thegioi/2007/03/3B9F3CD4 13. http://www.petrotimes.vn/the-gioi-phang/ho-so-su-kien/2012/
03/trung-quoc-tang-ngan-sach-quoc-phong-the-gioi-lo-ngai i4.http://news.xinhuanet.eom/english/worid/2012-01/29/c_131 381458.htm
