VENEZUELA Dl/dl THCll CUA
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TOINC THONC HUCO CHAVEZ
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am d phia Bac luc dia Nam My, Venezuela ed dien tich gan ga'p 3 Viet Nam vdi dan sd' khoang 26 trieu ngUdi. Vdi nguon tai nguyen thien nhien phong phu, trong dd cd cac nguon dau md, khi dd't, quang sat, than da, bd-xit, vang, kem,... Venezuela nhanh ehdng trd thanh mdt trong nhUng qud'e gia cd nen kinh te phat trien manh d Nam My. Trdng dd, khai thae dau lUa la nganh kinh te quan trong nha't ciia qud'e gia nay. Trong khu vUc My Latinh, Venezuela ndi len vdi mdt nen kinh te hien dai, ddng vai trd lanh dao trong khu vUe gan lien vdi nguon tai nguyen dau liia. Venezuela gianh ddc lap va ban hien phap dan chii dau tien dUde cdng bd' nam 1974. Trong lich sii hien dai, nhUng khoan tien khdng Id do xua't khau dau mang lai cho qud'e gia nay sU giau cd bac nha't Nam My vdi he thd'ng giao thdng hien dai, vdi nhUng cdng trinh kien triic trang le va mot ed sd ha tang du lich ra't phat trien. NhUng thang tram kinh te - xa hdi Venezuela ludn gin lien vdi diln bien chinh tri. Tif nam1998, khi Hugo Chavez dac cii tdng thd'ng vdi nhieu cai each sau rong, nen kinh te - xa hdi Venezuela da cd nhieu chuyen bien dang ke.
1. T i n h h i n h k i n h t e
Mot sd' chi so' kinh te vi md cho thav nen kinh te Venezuela dang tren
Le Thi T h u T r a n g Vien Nghien ciiu Chau My
da phat trien td't vdi tdc do tang trudng kinh te cao nhat trong khu vUe My Latinh sud't thdi gian tif 2003- 2007. Hinh 1 md ta GDP thUe theo quy tii nam 1998 den nam 2007. Qua do thi nay ta tha'y kinh te Venezuela bi anh hUdng rat manh bdi cac cii sdc tu ben ngoai, dac biet la cac cude khiing hoang ve chinh tri va cac cude bai cdng bieu tinh. Nam 1999, nam dau tien ciia Chinh quyen Chavez bat dau vdi viec gia dau xud'ng thap nha't trong 22 nam qua. NhUng nen kinh te da phue hdi ngay sau dd. bat dau tU Quy I nam 2000, va tiep tue xu hUdng dd den bet Quy III nam 2001. NhUng bat dn ve chinh tri trong may thang tiep theo keo theo sU suy giam kinh te nghiem trong. Khdi dau la cude tdng bieu tinh chd'ng chinh phii cua Hiep hdi thUdng mai Venezuela (FEDECAMARAS) thang 12 nam 2001. Bieu tinh, dinh cdng win tiep tue den tan thang 4 nam 2002 khi chinh quyen bi quan ddi dao chinh.
Chinh quyen lam thdi chi tdn tai trong 48 gid. Td'e do phat trien kinh te van nam dudi miic 0 bet nam 2002.
Suy thoai trong mdt thdi gian dua nen kinh te xud'ng day vao Quy I nam 2003. Sau khi dn dinh dUcic tinh hinh dau Ilia, cha'm diit tinh trang khiing hoang keo dai, nen kinh te Venezuela khdi phue va phat trien nhanh ehdng:
ke tif Quy I nam 2003 den Quy 1 nam 2008 kinh te tang trUdng dang ke, dat tdi eon sd'88,3%.
Hinh 1: GDP thu-c/dau ngifdi (da d i e u c h i n h )
GDP thyc/dau ngiroi
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Nguon: Ngdn hang Trung Mug Venezuela, BCV Mot so si^ k i e n q u a n trong anh
hitdng d a n g ke d e n kinh te V e n e z u e l a
QrV-1998: Chavez ddc cii. Gid ddu xudng thap nhdt trong 22 ndm trUdc dd (thdng 12)
QL1999: Tong thd'ng Chavez bdt ddu nhiem ky (thdng 2)
QIV-2001: Hiep hdi doanh nghiep keu goi dinh cong tren todn qudc
Qn-2002: Hiep hdi doanh nghiep lai td chi/c 1 cuoc dinh cong ram ro (ngdy 9/4).Chinh phu Idm thdi len ndm quyen (ngdy 12/4)
QI-2003: Cham di2t khdng hoang ddu
Qn-2003: Phe ddi lap tim cdch bdi nhiem Chavez thdng qua bdu cii
Qm-2004: Tdng thdng Chavez thdng ldi bdu cii (thdng 8)
QIV-2004: Hiep hdi doanh nghiep keu goi dinh cdng tren todn qudc
Cac sd' lieu da phan tich eiia Ngan hang Trung Udng Venezuela chd tha'y kinh te cd miic tang trudng lien tue cao trong 5 nam qua, va nam 2007 dat 8,4%. Trong dd, eac linh viic vien thdng, dich vu, thUdng mai, giad thdng van tai va xay diing da dat miic tang trUdng binh quan 9,7%. Theo bao cao eua Uy ban Kinh te My Latinh va Caribbean cua Lien hiep qud'e (CEPAL) cdng bd' ngay 13-12-2007, tang trudng kinh te ciia Venezuela diing hang thii hai khu viic, ngang miic ciia Argentina va chi sau Panama (9,5%).
Theo Bd Kinh te Venezuela (MINEC), Chinh phii nude nay by vong se tiep tue phat huy nhQng thanh tUu kinh te da dat dUdc va giU vUng miic tang trUdng hdn 8"() trdng nam 2008. Cd dUdc thanh tiiu nay la do Chinh phu Venezuela da rat nd life
nhieu sdng gid. Ben canh dd, tif thang 1/2008, viec dUa ddng Bolivar mdi cd gia tri ga'p 1000 l i n ddng tien cu vao luu thdng cung gdp phan khdng nhd cung cd' chi sd' tang trudng kinh te.
Trong thdi ky kinh te bung nd nhu vay, nhUng ty le lam phat ciia Venezuela lai giam mot niia. Cac chuyen gia kinh te cho rang ty le lam phat se xud'ng miic tha'p nhat trong sudt 18 nam qua mac dii van d miic cao trong khu vUc. Dd thi cho tha'y lam phat giam deu d miic 12%/nam tii nam 1998 den 2002. Trong thdi gian tif nam 2002-2003, nhieu bien cd
phat len tdi 40% mdt nam. Sau khi khung hoang dau ket thiic cung vdi sU dn dinh ve mat chinh tri - xa hdi, nen kinh te Venezuela dang tren da phue hdi, ty le lam phat ed xu hudng giam dan deu. Tuy nhien ehi sd' nay tang trd lai tU 10,4% thang 6 nam 2006 len
19,4% thang 6 nam 2007. Ly giai cho sii viec nay ed nhieu nguyen nhan.
trong dd ed sii phat trien kinh te qua ndng sau mdt thdi gian khiing hoang dai. Chinh phu da dUa ra muc tieu giam ty le lam phat xud'ng dUdi 10%
va ty le tha't nghiep xud'ng dudi 8%
nam 2008.
H i n h 2: Ty le l a m p h a t (%) theo thang (tif 1/1991 - 1/2007)
140
Nguon: Ngdn hang trung licfng Venezuela (BCV)
Cac chi sd' phat trien xa hdi cung ra't kha quan. Ty le tha't nghiep rd rang ty le nghich vdi td'e do phat trien kinh te'.
Ty le nay tang cao khi nen kinh te di vao dinh dd'n va suy thoai: d miic 18,4%
thang 6 nam 2003. Ty le nay la 15%
vao nam 1999 khi Tdng thd'ng H.
Chavez bat dau len nam quyen, sau dd di theo chieu hudng giam den nam 2001 la 13,3%. Trong thdi ky khiing hoang kinh te - xa hoi d Venezuela, ty le that nghiep tang vot, cao nhat la nam 2003. Tiep theo dd, vdi sii phue hdi
eiia nen kinh te, ty le nay dang giam xud'ng nhanh ehdng chi edn 8,3"i, nam 2006. Them vao dd, thang 5/2007, Bd Kinh te Venezuela thdng bao ke hoach tang lUdng td'i thieu cho ngUdi lao ddng nUdc nay them 20% (tUdng dUdng 238 USD/thang) va ke hoach giam gid lam xud'ng edn sau gid/ngay nham ehao mifng Ngay Qud'e te lao ddng. Theo thdng bao mdi nha't eiia Trung tam Thdng tin Venezuela, ty le that nghiep la 6,1% nam 2008, tha'p nhat trouti thap ky qua.
Hinh 3 ; Ty le t h a t n g h i e p * d V e n e z u e l a tU n a m 1999-2007
- I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Nguon: Vien tho'ng ke qudc gia Venezuela (INE)
'^'Ty le tha't nghiep diide thong ke theo % vdo thdng 6 hang ndm
2. Nhufng cai e a c h kinh te
Ngay sau khi len cam quyen, Tdng thd'ng H. Chavez da tien hanh mdt loat cai each ve the che, thdng qua nhieu dao luat, dac biet la luat da't dai cd ldi cho ngUdi ngheo; qud'e hUu hda nganh dau khi - tru cot kinh te cua da't nude; tien hanh nhieu cai each xa hdi nhu chien dich xda nan mii chU, xda ddi giam ngheo, nang ca'p ha tang cd sd, xay dUng them nhieu trUdng hoc, cai thien dich vu y te...
* Qudc hiJCu hoa ngdnh ddu liia Venezuela cd trU lUdng khi dd't Idn thif 2 tai Tay ban eau, khai thae 3,3 trieu thimg dau/ngay, xua't khau dau md Idn thii 4 the gidi. Viec khai thae dau tai 32 md chu yeu do cac cdng ty nUde ngoai thiic hien. Qud'e hdi nUde nay ngay 15/4/2006 da thdng qua dii luat ve thue tai nguyen, theo dd cac cdng ty dau md nUdc ngoai boat ddng tai Venezuela phai chiu miic thue mdi la 33,3% so vdi 16,6% trUdc day. Ngay 15/4/2008, Venezuela tang miic thue thu nhap dd'i vdi cac dii an khai thae dau md tai lUu viic sdng Orinoco tii
34% len 50%. Hai miic thue mdi dii kien bd sung cho ngan sach Nha nUde them 9 ty USD/nam. Day la mot bUde dot pha manh me trong chien lUdc dau md eiia Chinh phii Venezuela do Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez diing d i u nham can bang cac ldi nhuan ma cac cdng ty dau md tU nhan va nUde ngdai da thu dUde trong thdi gian qua, khi gia dau md lien tue tang cao, xap xi mifc 70 USD/thung. Miic thue sua't se tang len 60%) neu gia dau Brent trung binh hang thang vU(3t 100 dd la My/thiing.
Mifc thue mdi ma Qud'e hdi Venezuela vifa thdng qua chii yeu anh hudng Idn tdi cac cdng ty nUde ngoai dang khai thae dau thd nang tren lUu viic sdng Orinoco nhU BPPLC, Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron, ConoeoPhilips, Total SA.... Cac cdng ty tU nhan d Venezuela hien dang boat ddng trong nhUng dii an chung vdi chinh phii, da ddng miic thue 33,3% tif trUdc nen ho khdng phai ddng them thue.
Cong vao dd la ke hoach cham diit viec quan ly ciia nUde ngoai ddi vdi cac xi nghiep khai thae dau d khu viic sdng
Chevron va Texas eua My, Total eua Phap, BP PLC cua Anh se ma't quyen sd hUu.
Venezuela da gianh lai quyen dieu hanh va sd hUu bdn nha may loc dau d khu Orinoco. Day la mdt bUde quan trong trong ke hoach qud'e hUu hda cac nganh trong yeu, dUa Venezuela trd thanh nUde XHCN eiia Tdng thd'ng Hugd Chavez. Bdn nha may nay tri gia hdn 30 ti USD va cd the che bien 600.000 thung dau thd/ngay, chiem 1/5 tdng san lU(3ng ciia ca nUdc. TrUde dd cac cdng ty sd hUu chiing, gdm ConoeoPhillips, Chevron, Exxon Mobil (My), BP (Anh), Statoil (Na Uy) va Total (Phap), da ddng y tuan thu lenh chuyen giao quyen van hanh lai cho Tap doan Dau md Qudc gia Venezuela (PDVSA) ciia Venezuela, tap doan nay chiem khoang 60% tdng sd' vd'n kinh doanh ciia bd'n nha may tren.
* Qudc hiJCu hoa cdc ngdnh chu chdt khac
Ngoai nganh dau khi, nganh tru cot sd' 1 ciia da't nUde, Venezuela edn tien hanh quo'c hUu hda cac nganh cdng nghiep chii chd't khac la dien nude, mang lUdi vien thdng, xi mang va luyen kim.
Ngay 8/1/2008, Tdng thd'ng H.
Chavez da cdng hd' ke hoach qud'e hUu hda cac cdng ty dien va viin thdng.
Venezuela qud'e hUu hda cdng ty dien liic tu nhan Idn nha't nUde Eleetricidad de Caracas (EDC) - mot cdng ty ciia My, nham thiie hien ehUdng trinh qud'e hUu hda eac nganh kinh t e c h u chd't ma Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez khdi xUdng bang each mua lai gan 93% sd' ed phieu ciia cdng ty EDC.
Chinh phu Venezuela phai chi khoang 836,9 trieu USD de gianh quyen sd hiiu EDC. Nam trong ke hoach, cdng
dien thoai ed' dinh chii chd't eiia Venezuela, ddng thdi chiem thi phan Idn trong thi trudng dien thoai di ddng va Internet, cung nhan dxioc lenh qud'e hUu hda eiia chinh phii.
Tiep theo dd, Tdng thd'ng Venezuela Hugo Chavez da ky sac lenh qud'e hUu hda tap doan luyen gang thep Idn nhat dat nUdc Sidor (60% vd'n gdp la ciia Argentina Teehint) hdi thang 5 nam 2008 vdi cam ket se tra lUdng cao hdn va tao dieu kien lam viec td't hdn chd cdng nhan. Chinh phu Venezuela chii trUdng giam xuat khau san pham eua Sidor de tang eUdng phue vu cho nhu eau trong nUde.
Ngay 3/4/2008, Tdng thd'ng H.
Chavez quyet dinh qud'e hUu hda nganh san xua't xi mang nham ngan chan cac cdng ty d at ban vat lieu thd ra nUde ngoai trong khi trong nUde dang thieu hut tram trong. Theo dd, tii ngay 18-8, Nha nUde nam quyen kiem soat khoang 60" o sd'cd phan ciia 3 cdng ty san xua't xi mang hang dau the gidi dang hoat ddng tai nUde nay la Cemex (Mexico), Lafarge SA (Phap) va Holeim Ltd (Thuy Si). Viec qud'e hUu hda cac cdng ty xi mang la bUde khdi dau trien khai ke hoach thanh lap mdt tap doan xi mang qud'e gia Idn eua Chinh phii Venezuela nham kiem soat gia vat lieu xay diing, tii dd thiic day ke hoach xay dung, giai quye't tinh trang thieu nha d tai nUdc nay va phat trien cd sd ha tang phue vu phat trien da't nUde.
Ben canh dd, Tdng thd'ng Venezuela thdng bao se ra luat budc cac ngan hang tU nhan Uu tien tai chinh cho cac cdng ty trong nUdc. .\eu eac ngan hang nay coi thifdng luat.
"ho se bi ddng cifa".
Trong hnh viic ndng nghiep, Uu ti()n hang dau la tien hanh cude cai
each rudng da't nham thu hdi hdn 1 trieu hec-ta da't bd hoang, chia lai cho ndng dan canh tac. Venezuela xay dung eac nha may phan bdn tai cac nude t h a n h vien PetroCaribe vdi nguyen lieu do Venezuela cung ca'p de phat trien trdng trot hUdng tdi muc tieu bao dam an ninh lUdng thiic tai khdi nay.
* Nhiing cdi cdch xd hoi khdc:
ChUdng trinh Mission Habitat - hang ngan ngdi nha danh cho ngUdi ngheo - da thu dUcJc nhUng thanh cdng dang ke. Tif nam 2004, nam boat ddng dau tien cua Mission Habitat, da xay diing dU(3c 10 ngan can ho. Cac nam tiep theo 2005, 2006 la 50.000 va 70.000 can hd cho ngUdi nghed. De thiic hien Mission Habitat tren toan qudc, Chinh phu Venezuela chi hang ti ddla de td chiic san la'p mat bang, xay dung ha tang ky thuat, lam nha.
NgUdi dan dU(3c cai thien nha d cung phai ddng gdp mot phan, thdng thudng la 30%) chi phi cho viec xay nha (khdng tinh gdp phan chi phi ha tang), va ed chinh sach tra gdp, thdng thUdng trong khoang thdi gian 20 nam.
Tii thang 6 nam 2002, Chinh phu da dUa ra Ke hoach chien lUde xa hdi 7 nam (PES) tii 2001 den 2007 nham tang cUdng quyen Icji xa hdi, giam ba't binh dang, tang sd hUu cdng va sd hUu toan dan. Nhiem vu quan trong ciia ke hoach nay la phd cap giao due va cham sdc y te toan dan. Muc tieu giao due bao gdm chUdng trinh "Nhiem vu Robinson I va II" xda mil cho ngUdi Idn va giao due tieu hoc, chUdng trinh
"Nhiem vu Ribas" cho dao tao nghe va dao tao dai hoe theo chUdng trinh
"Nhiem vu Sucre". NhUng ngUdi tha't nghiep va lao ddng khdng chinh thifc cung dUdc khuyen khich tham gia cac chUdng trinh dao tao nay. Nhd khoan
tr(3 cap ciia chinh phii, ca hoc vien va ngUdi hudng dan deu dUdc hUdng mot ehiit thu nhap, phan nao giiip ho thoat canh ddi ngheo.
Giiia nam 2003, Tdng thd'ng Chavez khdi dong chUdng trinh Barrid Adentro ve cham sdc y te toan dan dudi sii tr6 giiip cua cac bac sy Cuba.
ChUdng trinh da xay diing dUdc 320 tram y te cho nhan dan. Tiep den, nam 2005, chUdng trinh Barrio Adentro II va III di vao boat ddng da tang cUdng them cac dich vu y te, cd hdn 5000 cac trung tam cham sdc sife khde d\16c t h a n h lap.
Ngoai ra eac ehUdng trinh tr(3 gia lUdng thiic thiie pham, kham va chUa benh mien phi, tao viec lam cho ngUdi lao ddng,... cung gdp phan cai thien dang ke ddi sd'ng eiia ngUdi lao ddng ngheo, nha't la d cac vung niii xa xdi.
3. Nhufng thanh qua c u a cai each Mae dii Venezuela chUa phai la mdt nUde phat trien, van edn ddi mat vdi nhUng va'n de xa hdi nhU ehenh lech giau ngheo, budn lau ma tiiy, tham nhung,... nhUng nhUng cai each kinh te - xa hdi ciia chinh phii theo hUdng tien tdi "Chu nghia xa hdi ciia the ky XXI" da thu ducjc nhUng thanh tUu dang ke. Kinh te Venezuela lien tue cd miic tang trUdng cao trong 5 nam qua, va nam 2007 dat 8,4%. Trong dd, cac linh viic vien thdng, dich vu, thUdng mai, giao thdng van tai va xay diing da dat miic tang trUdng binh quan 9,7%). Lam phat giam tdi con sd' 8% trong nam 2008, hoan toan nam trong tam kiem soat dUdc. Van de viec lam cung cd nhieu thay ddi kha quan, ty le that nghiep chi edn 6,1% nam 2008. Vdi sii giiip dd ehi tinh ciia Chinh phii Cuba, tinh trang ngUdi dan mil chU va khdng dUde ehUa benh
2004, da cd 50 trieu lUcit ngUdi nghee dUde kham benh mien phi, hdn 1 trieu ngUdi thoat nan mil ehU, cung nhu hang chue nghin gia dinh cd nha d.
Dac biet la ty le ngheo ddi da giam di dang ke. Neu lam mot phep so sanh giUa sd' lieu cap nhat mdi nhat hien nay vdi con sd' tif khi bat dau Chinh quyen Chavez, ty le ngheo da giam rat nhieu, tif 42,8% dau nam 1999 chi edn 37,9% cud'i nam 2005, giam
12,9%. Neu sif dung thUde do ngUdi ngheo thay cho hd ngheo thi ty le ngheo giam 6,3%, tif mdt nifa dan so xud'ng edn 43,7% dan sd'. Nam 2006 va 2007 vdi nd lUc kiem che cac cii sd'e dau lifa, kinh te phat trien nhanh ehdng thi ty le ngheo ddi cung dUcic cai thien dang ke, chi edn xa'p xi 28%
hd gia dinh ngheo tifc la khoang hdn 30% dan sd' sd'ng d miic ngheo ddi.
Trong nhUng nam qua, da ed nhieu sii chd'ng dd'i tif phe dd'i lap ludn ed gang loai bd Chavez, ddi td chifc trUng eau de bai nhiem Tdng thd'ng. Do vay, Chinh quyen cua Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez da phai dd'i mat vdi ra't nhieu khd khan va thach thiie. Lieu the ky XXI ciia Tdng thd'ng Hugo Chavez, chu nghia xa hdi cd thiic sii giiip Venezuela thoat ra khdi nen kinh te cham phat trien va xda bd tinh trang ngheo ddi hay khdng? Lieu Venezuela cd thiic sii dan chu va cdng bang hdn hay khdng?
Cau tra ldi van edn d phia trUde •
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1. Foreign Affairs, Jorge Castenda: "Latin America's Left Turn", Thang 5/thang 6 nfim 2006
2. Foreign Affairs, Michael Shifter: "In search of Hugo Chavez", Thang 5/thang 6 nam 2006
3. Washington Post, td Chu Nhat, Thang 4, 2005, trang A16
4. Quo'c te, Nguyen Xuan, "Kinh te Venezuela: Giau nhiing chUa het kho", so 30 nam 2006
5. The Economist so 12-18 thang 10/2005, so 1-7, so 8-14 thang 8/2006
6. The New York times, Simon Romenro.
"Biing nd kinh te d Venezuela", thang 12 nam 2006.
7. Gabriel Ash, "Venezuela: Thdi ky dang thay ddi" dang tai ngay 16/5/2007 tren website http://upsidedownworld.org
8. Center for Economic and Policy Research, Mark Weisborot, "A note on Venezuela's economic performance". Thang 6/2005, website www.cepr.net
9. Center for Economic and Policy Research, Mark Weisborot, Luis Sandoval, David Rosnick, "Poverty rates in Venezuela", Thang 5/2006, website www.cepr.net
10. Bai Venezuela chu nghia xa hoi d Chau My Latinh, dang ngay 12/5/2007 tai dia chi website:
.http://che-
vietnam.com/modules.php?name=Ne\vs&rilc=sav e&sid=162
11. S d h e u dUdc trich d i n tren trang web cua trung tam thong tin Venezuela (VIC) va Ngan hang Nha niidc Venezuela tai dia chi website:
http://www.vicuk.org
http://www.bcv.org.ve/Englishversions'
