^ ^ 9
Cac yeu to anh hu'dng den qua trmh thoat ngheo
tai khu VI/C Tay Nguyen
Bdi TH| THAO' Tom tat
Nghien cdu sd dung bg sd lieu diiu tra cua Tong cue Tho'ng ki vd mo hinh logit nhi phdn de lim hieu cdc ye'u id dnh hudng di'n qud trinh thodt ngheo tren phgm vi cd nudc noi chung vd khu vuc Tdy Nguyen ndi riing. Ki't qud nghien cdu cho thdy, trong gioi dogn 2004-2016, cd 5 ye'u tddnh hudng, bao gom: Tuoi vd gidi tinh cua chu ho; Trtnh do hoc vd'n cao nhd't cda cdc thdnh vien trong gia dinh; Ddn tgc hgc; vd Su ho trff cua Chinh phu. Dgc biet, nghiin ctiu dd tim thdy bdng chdng khac biet, do la viec sd hdu ddt sdn xudt co dnh hudng tdi qud trinh thodt ngheo d khu vuc Tdy Nguyen, nhung trin phgm vi cd nUdc. thi tdc dgng cua yi'u td ndy lgi khong cd y nghia vi mat thdng ke.
Tti khda: xoa ddi gidm ngheo, ddt sdn xudt, mo hinh logit nhi phdn. ngheo ddi d Tdy Nguyen Summary
This paper examines factors affecting the process of poverty reduction in Vietnam generally and in the Central Highlands region particularly over the period 2004-2016. Binary logistic model is employed and data is collected fiom General Statistics Office of Vietnam. The results point out five determinants including Age and sex of household head; The highest educational level of family members, Ethnography; and Support from the government. Specially, the study concludes that production land ownership has a significant effect on the process of poverty reduction in the Central Highlands region, however, the impact of this factor is not statistically significant for the whole country.
Keywords: poverry reduction, production land, binaiy logistic model, poverty in the Central Highlands
GIOITHIEU
Cung nhrfcac quo'c gia dang phat tridn khde tren the' gidi, linh trang ddi ngheo d Viet Nam da va dang la nhffng thdch thffc ddi vdi Chinh phu va chinh quyen d mdt sd dia phrfdng. Kd't qua dieu tra Ueu chi chuan ngheo da chieu (giai doan 2016- 2020) cho thd'y, so' hp ngheo tren dia ban Tdy Nguyen la 225.030 hp, chie'm ty Ie \j,l4% sd hp tren loan Vung. So' hp ngheo d Ddk Lak xep thrf 2 (sau Kon Tum) vdi 81.592 hd, chiem ly le 19,37%.
Tie'p den la Dak Nong 19,26%, Gia Lai 19,17% va Ldm Ddng 5,12%, Trongkhi dd, toan Vung cd tdi 90.599 hd drfde xdp vao dien cdn ngheo, trong do Dak Lak chiem ly le eao nha't 8,28% vdi 34.884
bo, tie'p theo Gia Lai 7,3%, Kon Tum 6,36%, Dak Ndng 6,16% va Lam Dong 5,12% (Phrfdng Dinh, 2016).
Cd the ndi, ngheo ddi cua ngrfdi dan chiu lac ddng cua nhidu yeu td, vdi tinh chd't va mffc dd khac nhau.
Cac yeu to' nay co the co sff trfdng tdc Idn nhau va tac dpng den ngheo ddi. Vong luan tjuan: ngheo ddi dan tdi thu nhap tha'p, thu nhap tha'p ddn tdi dau trf cho san xua't, cho hpc hanb cua eon cai cua ngrfdi ngheo tha'p, vi dau trf tha'p ddn tdi ket qua san xud't thd'p, kdt qua hoe tap cua eon cai thd'p... Vdi y nghia tren, tae gia thrfe hien de tai nghien cffu "Cac yeu td anh hrfdng den qud trinh thoat ngheo tai khu vrfc Tay Nguyen".
CO sd LY THUYET VA PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CLTU
Doi ngheo la vd'n de xd hdi drfde nhieu nha kboa hpc quan tdm, nghien crfu d nhrfng thdi diem, ndi trdn
"TS., Trudng D^i hoc ISoi vu Ha Noi
Ngdy nhgn bdi: 15/09/2019; Ngdy phdn bi$n: 11/10/2019; Ngdy duyel ddng. 18/10/20! 9
Economy and Forecast Revie
79
khac nhau. Nghien crfu cua Cunguara. B. A. (2008) ve xda ddi giam ngheo^d khu vrfc ndng thdn eua Mozmbique da cht ra nhidu yeu Id' anh hrfdng ldi viec thodt ngheo, nhrf: va'n de sd hffu da't dai, da dang hda trong hoat ddng ndng nghiep bang each kdt bpp ehan nudi, trdng trpt... Kdt qua nay cung phil bdp vdi nghien effu eua Reardon (2007) thrfe hien. Reardon eon nha'n manh tam quan trpng cua thu nhdp phi ndng nghiep trong viec giam ngheo.
Ke't qua nghidn cffu cua tac gia Otsuka, K. va cdng srf (2007) cung da chi ra nhieu yeu td' cd anh hrfdng tdi viec xda ddi giam ngheo, trong do, nhom tac gia nhd'n manh yeu Id' vd'n, sd hffu dd'i dai vd trinh dp cua ngffdi cbu hd.
Nghien crfu ve giam ngheo doi d Nigeria cua Amaka, A, C. (2011) da chi ra lac dpng cua viec s6 hffu da't dai eiing vdi cac yeu id, nhrf: vd'n tdi ehinh, gidi tinh, tudi cua ngrfdi chu hd, quy md hd gia dinb cd anh hrfdng ldi vide xda doi giam ngheo.
Trong nrfdc cung cd nhieu nghien cffu ve chu de xoa ddi giam ngheo va md'i quan he vdi viec sd hrfu dd't san xua't. Nghien crfu cua Dong Van Dat (2017) cbo tha'y, cac ye'u td bao gdm: trinh dO hoc va'n; ty le Ihdnh vien phu thudc; dien tich dd't san xud't; thu nhap phi nong nghiep; ddn ldc hpc; tinh trang vide lam cd anh hffdng de'n xde sua't thoat ngheo. Ket qua nay cung ttfdng ddng vdi nghien crfu cua Tran Chi Thien (2007). Ciing vdi do, nghien cffu cua Nguydn Trpng Hodi (2005) da chi ra cdc yd'u td: didn tich dd't canh tac, dan tdc hpe, lie'p can vay vdn la nhffng bidn sd cd y nghia tho'ng ke de giai thich nguyen nhdn va yeu td anh hrfdng tdi ngheo dot cua hd ndng dan.
Mo hinh nghiin cdu
Nghien cffu da chpn md hinh logit de phan tieh hdi quy. Trong md hinh hdi quy logit, ne'u gpi P la xac sua't de mdt bie'n cd' xay ra, thi 1-P se la xac sud't cho trang thai ngrfpe lai, phrfdng trinh hdi quy logit vdt X la cac bie'n dpc lap cd anh hrfdng den vide Irfa chon drfde dinh nghia:
Log(-frd)=P,^P?^2,-* P ^tt.,+^ (0
Bang vide khao sat d hai thdi diem, trong dd thdi diem dau lac gia Itfa chgn td't ca cac hd gia dinh thudc dien ngheo, sau thdi gian 3 ndm, cac hp gia dinh cd the dd thoat ngheo Y = 1, hoac chrfa thoai ngheo Y = 0.
Cd sd Iy thuye't va cae nghien cffu trrfdc cho tha'y, ed nhieu ye'u td' co anh hrfdng tdi qua trinh xda ddi giam ngheo, Vdi muc rieu tim bieu mpt so' ye'u td' anh hffdng den xda doi giam ngheo, trong do trong tdm vao vide sd hffu da't san xua't d khu vrfc Tdy Nguyen, bien giai thich cua md hinh se bao gdm:
' Diin tich ddt sdn xudl (DT_DAT_SX): Trong md hinh bie'n se drfdc do theo m- vd ky vpng cd dd'u (+) vdi xac sua'l thoat ngheo.
- Tudi (TUOI): Trong md hinh bie'n nay drfdc ky vong cd quan he nghich bten vdi bidn phu thudc.
- Gidi tinh (G_TINH): Md hinh diJng bien gia vdi quy ffdc nam-1 /nff =0 vd dffdc ky vpng da'u (+)
- Thdnh thi ndng thon i i •< 'J- ^ ^^
gia dung bie'n gia vdi quy V'i- dianh thi
=l/n6ng thdn =0 va ky vpng co ddt: (+).
- Ddn tgc ihieu sd(DJ^OC): Bidn D_
TOC =1 clio bie't, ngrfdi dtWc khao sat la dan tdc thieu sd vd ky vpng cd quan he nghich da'u vdi bien phu thupc.
- Thdnh vien phu (huge (TV_PHU_
THUOC): Nhffng hp gia dinb ddng thanh vidn cd se cd kba nang lam kinh td td't hdn so vdi nhrfng hp ddn than. Tuy nhien, ne'u la thanh vien phu thupc, nhrf:
Ire em, ngrfdi gia, ngrfdi md't kha nang lao ddng, thi se cd tac dpng ngffdc lai.
- Trinh dd cao nhdi cda cd nhdn trong ho (TD_C_NHAT): Trinh dd gdn lien vdi kha nang suy tinh, dau trf, quan hd xa bdi.,. Trong md hinh nay, tnnh dd drfdc do theo bdng cd'p cua thanh vidn va chon trinh dp cao nha't cua cac thanh viSn trong hd, ky vpng dd'u (+).
- HS tra cua cdc td chdc (HO_TR0):
Trong pham vi nghien cffu nay, tac gia khao sdt anh hffdng cua yd'u to' nay thdng qua vide hd trd bang tien va mdi quan he cd the dong bid'n/nghich bie'n, phu thudc vao dff lieu nghidn effu.
Dd lieu nghiin cdu
Nghien cffu nay sff dung bd sd lieu Khao sat mffc sd'ng hd gia dinh (VHLSS) Clia Tong cue Thdng ke ihffc hien vao cdc ndm 2012,2014 vd trpng tdm la bd VHLSS 2016. Do cdng tac xoa doi giam nghfeo can cd khoang thdi gian de ddnh gid, ddng Ihdi, vao nam 2015, chu^n ngheo cua Vi6l Nam drfdc dieu chlnh theo Chrfdng trinh Muc rieu Qudc gia Giam ngheo bdn vflng giai doan 2016-2020, ndn tdc gia da chpn khoang thdi gian 2014-2016 de phdn tich hdi quy (Bdi vii't sd dung cdch viet sd thgp phdn theo chudn quoc ti').
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU Sff dung phan mem Eview de rfdc Irfdng ham hdi quy logii vdi bidn phu thudc thoat ngheo (THOAT) mang gid tri nhi phan. Nghien cffu chpn ta't ca cac ho ngheo vao thdi didm 2014. cho de'n nam 2016, hp gia dmh nao da tbodt ngheo, thl bien phu thudc nhan gi-i in bang 1, chi/a thoat ngheo thi bang 0 n,.^ g,^ j^jjg 2 md hinh hdi quy, trong \^^^^ ^ '^.j^gy ridng cho khu vrfc Tdy N a mo hinh 2 la chay tren pham vi c. :; ^^ ^^^^
Ket qua phan tieh trfo ^ j ^ ^ ^^^
bidn doe lap cbo thd'y, ca \^^ ^^^
khdng xay ra hien trfdng > , .-^ j ^ .
80
hinh I c6 he sd McFadden R-square = 0.358 h-ong khi mo hinb 2 cd hd sd nay la 0.099. Dieu nay cho Iha'y, dff lidu cua md hinh 1 phii hdp bdn so vdi md hinh 2. Hau hdt dd'u cua cac bidn ddc ldp phii hdp vdi gia thuyet va cd sd ly thuyd't.
Ve y nghia ciJa cdc hd sd, trong dieu kien cdc yeu td khac khdng ddi, nd'u X^^
ldng 1 ddn vi, thi ty sd log cua hai xde sud't se thay ddi la p^. Gid tri cua ty so nay drfdc md ta tai edtExp(B) trong Bang.
De phdn tich tde ddng bien ciia bien giai thich X^, dat P^ la xac sud't thodt ngheo theo sd lidu quan sdt (ty sd giffa sdquan sdt eo gia tri Yi=l/tdng sd mdu quan sdt, tffdng dffdng vdi gia tri trung binh Clia bie'n ddc lap), trong didu kidn cdc yeu td tac khong doi, tac ddng bidn se drfdc rfdc Irfdng bang cdng thffc:
dP
Nhff vdy, drfa vao ket qua hoi quy, md hinh 1 cd Pi-0.2621 va md hinh 2 cd Pi=0,3598, ke't qua hdi quy drfdc giai thich nhrf sau:
Anh hudng tudi tdc: Ke't qua hdi quy cho thay, mdi quan he nghich bid'n giffa tudi cffa chu hd va xac sua't thoat ngheo.
Cu the, he sd hoi quy co y nghTa ve mat thd'ng ke va nd'u tudi eua ngffdi chu hd gia dinh tang len 1, ihi xac sua't thoat ngheo se giam 1.1% ddi vdi khu vrfc Tay Nguyen va giam 0.32% tren pham vi ea nffdc. Nhrf vdy, sffe tre, srf nhanh nhen, ndng dpng ciia tudi tre da gop phan Iang xdc^suat thoat ngheo.
Anh hudng cua gidi linh: Kd't qua hdi quy cho thd'y md'i quan he giffa gidi tinh va xdc sua't thoat ngheo cd y nghia ve mat thd'ng ke, Tbeo do, ne'u cbu hd la nam, thl xac sud't thodt ngheo d khu vrfc Tdy Nguydn se tang len 7.6 iln va trdn pham vi ca nffdc se tang len 1.454 lan.
Anh hudng nffi cU tni: He so hdi quy d khu vrfc Tay Nguyen cho thd'y, nhffng hd sdng d ndng thdn co xac suat thoat ngheo thd'p hdn, trong khi trdn pham vi ca nffdc, thi ed ke't qua ngrfdc lai. Tuy nhidn, ke't qua nay khdng ed y nghia ve mat thdng ke.
Anh hudng cua ye'u id ddn ldc hgc:
Theo ket qua hoi quy, so vdi hp gia dinh ngrfdi Kinh, xac suathd gia dinh Id ngrfdi
BANG 1: KET QGA HOl QUY LOGIT NHI PHAN
v"""' UZtJ '^i^! kxp(B,
M6 hinh 1: Khu vrfc T9v Nguvfen TUOI
G TINH TT NT D TOC TV P THUOC T DO CN DT DAT SX HO TRO HANG SO
-0.0566 2.0288 -0.9928 -1.6962 0.3378 0,6075 8 82E-' -0.0018 0,0871
0.042 0.028 0 432'^*
0,032 0.187^*
0 077 0.011 0.009 0.788^^^
0 945 7.605 0.371 0-183 1-402 1.836 1.000 0-998 1.09!
Tong so quan sat 103 McFadden R-square: 0.358 Mean dependent var: 0 2621
H§s6' Mrfc L , „ , rfdc luViiE (B) 1V nehla 1 *^''P*"'
M6 hinh 2: Ca nrfdc -0.0139
0.3745 OOPS -0,9127 -0.0261 0.2997 4 74E-' -0,0004 0.0871
0,000 0,59 P'*
0.220''*
0 000 0.788''''^
0.401
1.000 1.000 1.091 Tong so quan sal :1195 McFadden R-square: 0.099 Mean deoendent var, 0.3598 Ghi chii. NA cho bil'i bi^n lihong cd y nghia It thong ke d mdc 1
dan tdc thieu so' thodt nghdo tha'p hdn 0.1S3 lan d khu vifcJTay Nguydn vd 0.4 lan tren pham vi ea nrfdc.
Anh hudng cua sd thdnh viin phu thugc: Nhffng gia dinh ddng thdnh vien se lam giam xdc sud't thodt ngheo. Song, so tbanh vidn phu thupc tang cd the nhdn drfdc nhieu trd ca'p cua xa hdi, nen lai lam tang xac sud't thoat ngheo, tuy nhien he sd hdi quy khdng cd y nghia ve mat thdng ke.
Anh hudng trinh do: Theo ke't qua hdi quy, khi trinh dp giao diac nang len mot bac, tbi xac sua'l thoat ngheo se ldng n . 7 5 % d khu vffe Tdy Nguydn va 6.9% tren pham vi ca nrfdc.
Anh hudng td dien tich ddt sdn xudt: Khu vffe Tdy Nguyen, ndi ma phdn da ngffdi ddn sd'ng bang san xud't nong nghidp, trdng trpt, thi viec sd hffu dd't dai ed vai tro quan trpng ddi vdi xdc sua't thoat ngheo.
Dieu dac biel thu vi la hdi quy tren pham vi ca nrfdc, thi md'i quan he nay khong ed y nghia ve mat thd'ng ke. The'nhrfng, ehi ridng khu vrfcTay Nguyen, thi md'i quan he nay ra't chat che, he so rin cay la ra't eao, tren 99%. Theo do, nd'u cde yd'u to' khac khdng ddi khi hd gia dinh d Tdy Nguyen tang l,000m^ da'l san xua't, thi xdc sua't giam ngheo se tang 1.7%.
Anh hudng tit nhdng khodn hd trff: Ke't qua hdi quy cho thd'y, tdn tai md'i quan he nghich, trfc hp gia dinh nhdn drfdc nhidu tien hd trd, thi xac sud't giam ngheo lai giam. Giai thich kd't qua nay, lac gia cho rang, tuy d mffc ngheo ddi nhirfig mrfc dp thi ra't khac nhau. Nhffng hp nban drfde tien tai trd co the thude dien rat khd khdn va vi vdy khoan hd trd nay khong giai quyel dffdc va'n de thoat ngheo ma chi co the cd tac dung lam giam kho khan cua hd ngheo. Ngoai ra, con cd tdm ly y lai cda cac hd gia dinh vao ede chinh sach eua Chinh phu ddi vdi dien hd ddi ngheo. Theo ke't qua hoi quy, trong dieu kien cac ye'u td khde khdng ddi, khi tidn bd trd md hd ngheo nhan dffdc lang len 1 trieu ddng/nam, thi xac
= Z ^ - r dX,
(f- ^ dP._dP. SZ dP. (€^)'(1 + e'-) - e'HI *i^)'
dZ ' d+e'')' T.-'-.C-^)
Economy and Forecast Review
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sud't thoat ngheo se giam 34.8% d khu vffe Tay Nguyen va giam 9.21% tren pham viea nrfdc.
KET LUAN VA KHUYEN NGH!
Ke'l qua nghidn effu eho Iha'y, nhieu yeu id' anh hrfdng ldi xac sud't thoat ngheo. Ve mdi cua ngrfdi chu hd gia dinh cang cao, thi xdc sud't thoat ngheo cang giam. So vdl nff, chu hd la nam gidi se tang xac sua't thoat ngheo.
Nghien cffu chi ra md'i quan be ddng bid'n giffa trinh dp hpc vd'n cao nhd't cua thanh vidn trong hd gia dinh vdi xac sua't thodt ngheo. Ve dan loc hpc, nghidn effu cho thay, so vdi ngrfdi Kinb, ngrfdi ddn tdc thieu so' cd xac sua't thodt ngheo thd'p hdn, Tuy nhien, ket qua hdi quy khdng tim tha'y md'i quan he cd y nghTa ve mat thdng kd giffa ndi crf tru vd sd' Ihanh vidn phu thuoc vdi xdc suat thodt ngheo. Dac biet, ket qua hdi quy dd thdm mdt lan nffa minh chffng ve vai tro ciia da't san xuat vdi xdc sua'l thoat ngheo. Dieu ddc biet thu vi la d ehd, nd'u nhrf tren pham vi ca nrfdc, mdi quan he giffa sd hffu dd't san xua'l ndng nghiep vdi thoat ngheo la khdng co y ngbia ve mat thdng kd, thi md'i quan he ndy d khu vffe Tay Nguyen la ra't chat che, he so'lin cay d mffc cao.
Drfa tren ke't qud nghien cffu, tdc gia drfa ra mdt sd' khuyd'n nghi nham eai thien ddi sd'ng eua ngffdi ddn, tang xac sua't thoat ngheo.
Thd nhd't, vi td chdc, cdn xdc dinh cong tdc xoa ddi gidm ngheo la mdt trong nhi^g nhiim vu cua nhieu td chdc CO lien quan. Ke't qua hdi quy cbo tha'y, co nhieu yd'u td anh hrfdng tdi viec xda ddi giam ngheo, nhrf: dan tdc, tnnh dd, tudi tdc, cdng tac tuyen truyen... Chinh vi vay, can cd srf Ianh dao, chi dao, phd'i ke't hdp cua chinh quyen cde cd'p c6 lien quan ddi vdi cong tde giam ngheo.
Ndi mdt each khde, ddi ngheo Id van de xa hdi, ma mdt td chffc ddn le se khdng the giai quye't tridl dd drfdc.
Ldng ghep co hieu qua cdc dff dn, chrfdng trinh giam
ngheo eung vdi chi dao sau sat eua cdc ca'p lanh dao, thi cdng tac giam ngheo thu drfdc ke't qua td't.
Thd hai, cdn xdy dung chinh sdch ddt dai hffp ly, ddm bdo du ddt sdn xudt cho ho ngheo. Kd't qua nghien cffu cho th^y, vai trb cua sd hffu da't san xud't dd'i vdi vide thodt ngheo la ra't quan trong d khu vrfc Tdy Nguyen. De chrfdng trinh xda doi giam ngheo dat ke't qua td't, can xdy dffng nhffng chinh sdch da't dai hdp ly cho tffng nhdm ddi Iffdng. Dae bidt, khu vffe nay co nhieu ddng bao dan tde thieu sd, ciing vdi dia hinh mien nui eho thd'y, edn eo nghien cffu ky irfdng cbo cong tac quy hoach dd't san xua't, chinh sdch giao da't cho trfng ddi trfdng, rf-anh tinh trang dd'i drfdc giao, nhtmg klidng canh ldc, hoac bi sang nhrfdng cho ngrfdi khde, Idm cho ehinh saeh dd't dai khong phat huy tac dung.
Thd ba, cdn xdy dung chinh sdch ddn tgc. mien nui phd hffp, chu trgng ddo tgo vd day mgnh cong tdc tuyin truyen, van dong todn ddn tham gia chUffng trinh gidm ngheo. Nhrf kd't qua nghien effu cho tha'y, nhffng bp gia dinh dan Idc thie'u sd deu CO xae sua't thoat ngheo tha'p hdn.
Vi vdy, Chinh phii can co nhffng chffdng trtnh tbiet thrfe, phu hdp de giup nhom dd'i trfdng nay. Ngoai ra, kd'l qua nghien crfu cho thd'y, viec trd ed'p bdng tien mat khdng giup hd dan diodt ngheo, trong khi do, nghidn effu lai chi ra tac dpng ciia yen Id' ttinh dp, tudi tdc. Nhrf vdy, y Ihffc vffdn len, phat huy ndi life la quan trpng ddi vdi cdng tac xda doi - giam ngheo.G
TAI LI^U THAM KHAO _ _ _
1. Tdng cue Thdng ke (2014, 2016). Khdo sdi mdc sdng hg gia dinh 2014, 2016 2. Tdng cue Thdng kd (2017). Niin gidm Thdng ke 2016, Nxb Thd'ng ke
3. Nguyen Trpng Hoai (2005). Nghien cdu ling dung cdc mo hinh kinh ti'luffngphdn deh cdc nhdn id tdc dgng den ngheo ddi vd de xudt xoa ddi gidm ngheo d cdc tlnh Dong Nam Bg. De tdi nghien cffU ca'p Bo
4. Tran Chi Thien (2007). Thuc trgng vd gidi phdp xoa doi gidm ngheo cho dong bdo ddn tgc vung nui cao tinh Thdi Nguyen. De tai nghien cffu ca'p Bp
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6. Phrfdng Dinh (2016). Dak Lak cd t^ li hg can ngheo theo chudn mdi cao nhdt vung Tdy Nguyen, truy cap trf http://www.baodaklak.vn/channel/3481/201607/dak-lak-eo-ty-le-ho-ean- ngheo-theo-ehuan-moi-eao-nhal-vung-tay-nguyen-2443062/
7. Amaka, A.C. (2011), Human capital inveslment and poverty reduction nexus in Nigeria 8. Cunguara, B. A. (2008). Palhways out of poverty in rural Mozambique, Michigan State Umversity 9. Otsuka, K. va eac cpng srf (2007). The Role of Labor Markets and Human Capital in Poverty Reduction - Evidenve from Asia and Africa, Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), 7(1)
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