Hieu qua the che va quan trj hanh chmh cong tot c6 giup
giam ngheo da chieu of Viet Nam?
I^GO QOdc DGNG"
Tom tat
Trong nghien cffu ndy, tdc gid ddnh gid tdc dgng cua thi che vd qudn tri hdnh chinh cdng den gidm ngheo da chiiu d Viit Nam. Sff dung md hinh hoi quy Probit da tdng. nghiin cffu dd chi ra tdc dgng tich cffc cua hiiu qud the che vd qudn tri hdnh chinh cong lot giup ldm gidm ngheo da chieu. Ki't qud nghiin cffu cung chi ra rdng, khd ndng cdi thiin thu nhdp cdc hg gia dinh sdng d dia phuang co thu nhgp rdt thd'p it chiu tdc dgng tich cue cua hiiu qud the cite vd qudn Iri hdnh chinh cong han nhffng hg sdng d dia phuang co mffc thu nhgp cao han.
TH khoa: thi che, ngheo da chieu. qudn tri hdnh chinh cong
Summary
In this study, the author assesses the impact of institution and public administration on multidimensional poverty reduction in Vietnam. Using a multi-tiered probit regression model, the study has shown the positive impact of institutiotial efficiency and good public administration on alleviating multidimensional poverty. It also indicates that the ability to improve income of households in very low-income areas is less likely to be positively affected by institutional efficiency and public administration than those in areas with upper income.
Keywords: institution, multidimensional poverty, public administration Giai THIEU
Trong nhiJng nam gan day, da co nhieu nghien citu tranh luan tim ra cau tra I6i lieu the che co tac dong de'n giam ngheo hay khong va ne'u co, thi tac dpng la thuan chieu hay ngiroc chieu, trifc tie'p hay gian tie'p. Co nhffng nghien cffu cho rang, the che' dong vai tro quan trpng trong ket qua giam ngheo cua cac quo'c gia. Nhieu nghien cffu sff dung cac thffdc do the che' khac nhau va cac thffdc do nay la co nhffng tac dong khac nhau de'n gidm ngheo. Cung da co nhu'ng nghien cffu cho rang, th^ che tot khong co tac dpng de'n giam ngheo trong ngdn han, nhffng trong dai han, lai co the co tac ddng tich cffc.
Tai Viet Nam, danh gia tac dong cua the che' de'n ngheo da chieu la de tai nghien cffu rat mdi me, bdi thffdc do ngheo da chieu d Viet Nam mdi dffdc dffa vao ap dung bat dau tff nam 2016.
Boi canh hien nay dat ra yeu cau cdn ki^m chffng tac dong cu the cua the che
den ngheo da chieu trong dieu ki6n mot nen kinh te' chuyd'n doi nhff Viet Nam.
M 6 H I N H NGHIEN CCU
Nghien cffu nay sff dung bp dff lieu da cap, trong dd; n hd gia dmh, ky hieu la i, dffdc long trong cac tinh/thanh pho c, ky hieu la j . Ngoai ra, muc tieu trong ye'u cua nghien cffu la nham giai thich sff bie'n thien cua thffc trang ngheo da chieu thong qua viec tan dung nhffng thong tin tff moi cap dp cua bd dff li6u. Vi ly do do, nghien ciiii ffng dung mo hinh hoi quy probit da tang cho cong doan phan tich dff lieu, day dffdc xem la giai phap kha thi (Snijders va Bosker, 2011).
Tac gia sff dung phffpng phap ffdc Iffdng linh hoat cua Allison (2009) hoac ky thuat within-between gidi thieu bdi Bell va Jones (2015) trong md hinh tuyen tinh.
Dffa tren each tie'p c3n xff ly dff lieu tren, nghien cffu cd the tach bach va'n de tac dong ciia ben trong nhdm (within-group) va giffa cac nhdm (between- group) cho cac bie'n dac trffng ciia hp gia dinh (Snijders va Bosker, 2011).
Tren thffc te. dieu nay co the thffc hien dffpc thong qua viec gop ca cac bie'n trung binh nhdm hoi tu (group- mean-centered variables, x p lan trung binh nhom (x)
"ThS., Trifdng D?i hpc Kinh te Quoc dan
Ngdy nhdn bdi: 25/6/2020. Ngdy phdn bi$n: 14/7/2020: Ngdy duyet ddng. 20/7/2020
Economy and Forecast Revi
BANG 1: DAMH M^C CAC BIEM Sii DifHG TRONG MO HIMH TTI Ttn bi^n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
i '
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
i
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^eadage3 ts nguoi Tre em jcapmax ihanhthi region 1 region2 region3 region4 regions region 6 tt_share LogTNBC Lagpapi
tn
Y nghia
Ho gia dinh c6 rdi viio tinh trang ngh&o da chieu hay khong (= 1 neu lil ho ngheo vi = 0 neu ho khong ngheo)
Gi6i tinh cua chii ho (= 1 neu chu hp la nam gich; = 0 neu chu ho la nff gidi) Chu ho CO ludi tH 30 den 59 tudi (= 1 neu trong nh6m ludi i& 30-59, = 0 n^u 6 nhom tudi khdcj
Chu ho CO tudi lit 60 tudi trd len (= 1 neu trong nhdm tudi ttf 60 ludi trd len, = 0 neu d nhom tudi khdc)
Quy mohofngtffli)
So tr(J em du'di 5 tudi Crong hQ (ngu'di)
Trinh do dao tao cda chu ho vdi 5 trinh do (Chu'a qua dao tao: ScJ cap nghe; Trung cap ngh^, Cao dang; Dai hoc trd len)
Thanh thi (thanh Ihi = 1, nong thon = 0)
Viing Ddng bang song Hong (DBSH) (vung DBSH = 1, viing khae = 0) Viing Trung du mifen nui phia Bac (TDMNPB) (viing TDMNPB = i.
viing khac = 0)
Viing Bac Trung Bo v^ Duyen hai mien Trung (BTB vk DHMT) (vimg BTB va DHMT = I. vQng khdc = 0}
Viing Tay Nguyen (viing Tiiy Nguyen = 1. vung khdc = 0) Vting Dong Nam Bo (viing DNB = 1, vung khac = 0)
Viing Ddng bang song CiJu Long (lu'dng i?ng khi cdc vimg khac ddng ihSi = 0). Bien nay khong xuS't hien khi chay cdc md hinh hdi quy Ty te ho gia dinh d khu vu'c ihanh thi
Logarithm Thu nhiip binh quan dau ngu'di mot thdng theo tifng Tinh/
Thdnh phd
PARI vdl dd trS 1 ndm, dai dien cho bien v^ the che'(danh gid Idc dong ngdn han)
MiJc do xep hang thu nhSp ciia dia phu'dng, vdi miJc do xep loai tif 1: miJc thu nhap blnh qudn dau ngifdi mot ihang rai tha'p. 2 miJc Ihu nhap binh qudn dau ngu'di mot thdng iha'p; 3 la mdc trung binh, 4 la miJc cao vk 5 la miJc rd't cao
Mguon. Tac gia tong hop di/a >.ao nghien CLTU tong quan
vao trong mo hinh ffdc Iffpng. Dieu nay se khle'n cho ffdc Iffdng ben trong (within estimates) cho cac chi so' cap do ho gia dinh trd nen tffdng dong vdi mo hinh ffdc Iffdng tac dpng dia phffdng/tinh cd'dinh. Ben canh do, khi ffng dung each tie'p can nay cho mo hinh phi tuyen tinh (nonlinear), cd them mpt so gia djnh khac can dffdc chffng minh (Schunk va Perales, 2017). Trong trffdng hdp khdng xay ra va'n de vi pham cac gia dinh b^t buoc, nghien cffu cd the khdp nhieu mo hinh h6i quy probit da tang vdi he so'chan bie'n thien (varying- iniercept) vh hd so gdc bien thien (varying-slope) dffdi dang cd ban sau: . ^ .
Pr fy,^ = ngheo) = 0 a + 3x^^ +1 P^Q (|) Tron^ dd. 0 ( ) tffdng dffdng vdi ham phan pho'i tich luy chuan thdng thffdng. x dflc trffng cho dac tinh cua hp gia dinh co he sd'gdc ng3u nhien (random slope) va
^ d a i dien cho cdc bien cap hp gia dinh K khong cd he so gdc ngau nhien.
- L- ,.- dne (a,) Cac h e s 6 c h a n _ u r i,.^ , ,^..^^
dffdc mo hinh hoa bang - u •. • - ^ pj
\ t r u n g binh theo dia p h f f O j . ^ c ^ . ^
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he so-goc ng5u nhien (8) cua X la mpt '•^ Trong nghien cA.. chi so-ngheo da eh,ludl«c Inh toan t t f B ^ d ^ l g u khao sat mifc so-ng ho gia dmh (VHLSS) 2Ulb va 2018; chi so Hieu qua quan tn hanh chinh cong cS-p tinh (PAPI)de dung lam thang do cho chat Irfdng the che (J Viet Nam Viec siJ dung PAPI bi tre mpt nam so vdi b6 dff lieu VHLSS, cii the trong chay mo hinh dinh lUdng; c4c diJ heu PAPI cua cac tinh se dffcfc thu thap tai c4c nam 2013; 2015 va 2017 (do PAPI 2014 thieu dff lieu cho 2 tinh la Dong Thap va Bac Giang; PAPI 2018 da dieu chinh, iffdc bo va bo sung mot so chi lieu do Iffdng d mot so noi dung, nen khong dam bao tinh plici hdp trong dit lieu Clia nghien cd^j). Vl sijf dung do tre I nam ciia bien dpc lap, nen tac dpng cua Th^ che dffpc hieu la hieu ffng ngan han d^t\ ngheo da chisu (Bai Viet su: dung cdch viet so thap phan Iheo chudn quoc le).
KET QUA NGHIEN CLfU D^ phSn tich tac dong ciia hi6u qu^
the che va qudn tri hanh chinh cong den ngheo da chieu d Viet Nam, nghian cffu sit dung mo hinh hoi quy probit da tang cP ban, dffpc cu the ra 5 mo hinh phan tich. Cac ket quii ciia mo hinh the hi6n 6 Bang 2.
BSng 2 cho thay;
Mo hinh 1 bao gom tat ca cac bien ve dac diem ciia hp va bien ve "lagpapi" dai di6n cho anh hffdng ciia the che ciip tinh cd anh hffdng nhff the nao den xic suat rdi vao tinh trang ngheo da c' ieu cua hp gia dinh? Ket qua nghien cu^ IQ thay;
- Cdc bien Quy m5 hO \ - tr^ em dffdi 5 tuoi trong hi? co tac i iffdng, cac bien con lai; Gidi tinh; i , u ' ciia chii hp; Trinh dp dao tao cu„ hu h<, va Ty le hp gia dinh song d thanti hi ^p c au am va tat ca cac bien deu L, y ngi ra thong ke. Dieu niy phan anh dung thf;, trang hien nay d cac ho gia dinh Cu th
" ^ b 4 „
BANG 2: KET QdA iSOC LttgNG Ttt CAC WO HllSH PROBIT BA T A N G Bi6h '^ '
Quy mo h0 Gidi (inh cm chii h6 Chii h6 c6 tuoi tir 30 den 59 Chu hd cd tudi ttf 60 trd len So Ire em dirdi 5 tu^i trong ho Trinh do dao tao cua chd ho Vting DBSH Viing TDMNPB Vilng BTB va DHMT Vfing Tay Nguyen Vilng DNB Thanh thl ndng thSn Bien tre ciia Th6' chg'(lagpapi)
Thu nhSp binh quan dau ngudi 1 thang (LogTNBQ) T^ I? hp gia dinh sdng d thinh thi
PhSn chia tinh theo thu nh^p Thu nhdp thdp Thu nhdp trung binh Thu nhgp cao Thu nhgp rgl cao
Thanh thj x The che' (lagpapi) Thu nhap binh quSn X The che (lagpapi) Thu nhdp thd'p x lagpapi
Thu nhdp tmng binh x lagpapi Thu nhdp cao x lagpapi Thu nhgp rd'l cao x lagpapi Thu nh^p blnh quan x Thinh thi x The che Thu nhdp thdp x thdnh thi x the che Thu nhgp trung binh x Thdnh thi x The che Thu nhgp cao x Thdnh thl x The che Thu nhgp rd't cao x Thanh thi x The che H#sdch§n
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Economy and Forecasi Review
cac hp gia dinh co chu hp la nam gidi, thi xac suat rdi vao tnnh trang ngheo da chieu thap hdn so vdi nff gidi;
Trinh dp dao tao cua chu ho cang cao, thi xac suat rdi v^o ngheo da chieu cua hp do thap hdn so vdi nhO'ng ho cd trinh dp dao tao thap. Them vao dd, ho gia dinh cang dong ngu'di va cd nhieu tre em dirdi 5 tudi. thi xac sua't rdi vao ho ngheo da chieu cang tang. Ket qua cua mo hinh cho thay, neu Quy mo ho tang them m6t ngirdi, thi xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu tang them 6% vS viec cd them mot tre em di/di 5 tudi trong nha, thi xac suat rdi vao ngheo tang 10%. Mot hd gia dinh cang dong ngu'di v^ nhieu tre em du'di 5 tudi song trong hp se tang them kha nang ngheo da chieu hdn, dac biet kha nang trong viec thieu hut cac chieu ve giao due va nha d se cao hdn. khi ma hp khdng co nhieu thu nhap de trang trai cho c^c nhu cau nay. Dac biet, neu chia theo nhdm tuoi, thi chu hp trong dd tudi tiJ 30 den 59 cd xdc sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu tha'p hdn so vdi chu hd tif 60 tudi trd len.
- Khi phSn tich dac diem nhan khau theo vCing mien, dd bao ve dau cua md hinh nghien cu\i deu phii hdp. Cu the, viec ho gia dinh dd sd'ng d khu viTc thanh thi, thi xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu giam 0.4 so vdi ho gia dinh sd'ng d Idiu virc nong thdn; ne'u hd sdng d viing DBSH va DNB, thi xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chi^u se giam di. Trong khi dd, d cac vung cdn lai la vung TDMNPB, vung DHMT, vung Tay Nguyen va Dong b^ng sdng Culi Long, thi xac sua't rdi vao tinh trang ngheo da chieu se tang Ign, Dieu nay la phu hdp vdi thifc te, khi ma hai viing la BBSH va DNB deu la nhu'ng vung phat trien nha't ca nu'dc.
- Bie'n so' The che cd tac ddng am va cd y nghia thd'ng ke, dieu nky chi ra rhng, miJc do cao hdn cua chat lu'dng hieu qua the che hay chat lu'dng the che' tot hdn se li6n quan de'n rniJc dp ngheo da chieu tha'p hdn.
Hay ndi each khac, khi hieu qua the che, tang len. thi xac sua't ngheo da chieu giam di. Ne'u sii' dung md hinh nay de dif doan xac sua't ngheo da chieu do'i vdi mdt ho gia dinh trung binh so'ng d mgt dia phu'dng cd mile dp hieu qua the che'lu'dng difdng vdi ty le phan tram thiJ 10 cua cac dia phu'dng trong mau, se nhan du'dc gia tri 10.73%. Xac sua't nay giam xud'ng con 9% dd'i vdi mpt hp gia dinh trung binh so'ng d mot dia phifdng co miJc dp hieu qua the che tUdng difdng \di ly le phan tram thu' 90. Nhif vay, cd the tha'y. tac dpng tich cifc cua thd che de'n ngheo da chieu. Theo do. mot dia phu'dng cd hieu qua thd che to't hdn, thi ty le ngheo da chieu se co xu hifdng gidm va tha'p hdn so vdi nhffng dia phifdng cd hieu qua thd che'tha'p hdn.
Mo hinh 2 nghien cffu bd sung them bien Tffdng tdc giffa viec sd'ng d thanh thi va hieu qua the che cd anh hffdng nhff the nao de'n xac sua't rdi vao tinh trang ngheo da chieu cua hp. Ket qua nghien cffu cho thay, khi hieu qua the che tiing len. thi ldi the sdng d khu vu'c thanh thi se giam di. Hay ndi each khac. khi hieu qua the che cua dia phffdng dffdc cai thien, thi mffc dp chenh lech trong xac sua't rdi vao tinh trang ngheo d ndng thdn va thanh thj se difdc thu hep lai
, , . u ' niv mo hinh De kiem chffng cho m. "'^-^.^ fmh tie'n hanh dff doan xac ^^\^"' . g pja t r a n g t i g h e o d a c l i i e u o n " I ^ ^ L dinh nong thon va.htin^ . . . t a n . . ph.,<,t,gc6hieuqo4,h..Hjcaot le phan Iran, thtt 91) .K -"^ ^ ^ ' ' J I ^^^
™ a u nghien cffu). so heu tinh oan S^Sfam cho tha'y, vdi nhffng d.a phffdng d hieu qua thd chd b^ng ty^? P ^ - t r a - thff 10, thi xac sua't ho g'^^J^^ ngheo da chi^u a khu Vffc thanh th, thap hdn 7.22%
so vdl sdng d khu vffc nong thon (4.75%
so vdi 11.97%). Sff khac bidt nay giam xudng con 1.23% (7.98% 6 thanh thi va 9 21 % ci n6ng thon) khi hieu qua the che dffdc cai thien (tai nhffng dia phffdng co hieu qua the che bang ty le phan tram thff 90).
Md hinh 3 dffa them bien Nhdm thu nhap (i.tn) cua cac dia phffdng vao dd giai thich them mffc dp cai thien thu nhap cua cac dia phffdng cd giup lam giam ngheo da chieu hay khong? Ngoai trff bien "Ty le hp gia dinh sd'ng d khu vffc thanh thi" cd dau dffdng va khdng CO y nghia thd'ng ke, cac bidn khdc ddu cd da'u tffdng tff nhff cac mo hinh trffdc.
Bien Hieu qua the che cd tac dpng tich cffc de'n giam ngheo da chieu va van cd y nghia tho'ng ke. Xet tac ddng cua bidn Nhdm thu nhap den xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu cua cac hd gia dinh, cdc bie'n nay deu cd da'u am va cd y nghTa tho'ng ke, nhffng ve gia tri, cd the tha'y, vdi cac dia phffdng cd mffc dp thu nhap cang cao, thl xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu cang giam. Nhff vay, cd the tha'y, viec cac hd gia dinh sd'ng d cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap trung binh cang cao, thi xac sua't ngheo da chieu cang tha'p.
Mo hinh 4 giai thich cho viec bidn Tffdng tac giffa viec sd'ng d cac dja phffdng cd cac mffc dp thu nhap khac nhau vdi hieu qua thd che se anh iffdng nhff the nao de^n xac suat rdi va. nh trang ngheo cua hg, bang viec du lin.rn bien Tffdng tac giffa cac mffc th „ ^j ^nj vdi bien Hieu qua the che (1 , YM dffa them bien Tffdng tdc i , , ^ g hinh, bien The che cd tac do t ^, ,-^^^
cffc) den xac sua't ngheo da ct ju_ ^ lai khdng cd ^ nghia Ihdng kc j^c b, 'n- Dac diem cua ho % a cua dia pi ^ng ^j ^
CO da'u nhff md hinh trffdc. Bien Tffdng tac mang da'u ^m va cd y nghTa tho'ng ke cho tha'y, vi6c cdi thien hi6u qua thd che cd giup lam giam ngheo da chieu d cac dia phffdng. Tuy nhien, vdi cdc dia phffdng d mffc dd phdt trien khac nhau, thi tdc ddng cua the chd den giam ngheo da chieu Ik khdc nhau
Kd't qua nghien ci?u cho tha'y, hieu qua the che cang tang, thi tdc dpng nhieu hdn de'n vi6c giam xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu cua nhffng hp gia dinh d nhiing dia phffdng cd mffc dp phdt trien thS'p va trung binh trd 16n, nhffng dd'i vdi nhffng hd gia dinh sd'ng d nhffng dia phffdng cd mffc dp phdt tridn rat thap, thi khdng cd nhidu sff cai thien.
Mo hinh 5 them bien Tffdng tdc hai chidu giffa cac mffc thu nhap vdi hieu qud thd che; Tffdng tac hai chidu giffa sd'ng d thanh thi vdi hieu qua thd che;
Tffdng tac ba chieu giffa so'ng d thanh thi tai cdc dja phffdng cd mffc do thu nhap khdc nhau vdi hieu qua thd che. Mo hinh giiip chi ra them mpt khia canh nffa ve sff tffdng tac giffa viec sd'ng d thanh thi d cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhSp khdc nhau trong bd'i canh hieu qua thd ch6' thay ddi se anh hffdng nhff the nao den xdc suat rdi vao tinh trang ngheo da chieu cua cdc hp gia dinh d cac dja phffdng dd.
Ke^t qua nghidn cffu cho thS'y, da'u cua cac bid^n: Dac didm cua hd gia dinh va Ca'p tinh tffdng tff nhff cdc mo hinh trffdc. Da'u cua bien Tffdng tac 3 chidu la dffdng va cd y nghTa thd'ng k6. Dieu nay cd thd kd't ludn rdng, khi hidu qua thd chd dffdc cai thien, thi vi$c sd^ng d thdnh thi cua cac dja phffdng cd mffc thu nhdp ngay mdt cao se mat dan ldi thd.
Hay ndi each khac, khi hieu qua the che dffdc cai thien, thi mffc chenh lech ve xdc sud't ngheo da chieu do'i vdi cac hd gia dinh sd'ng d ndng thdn hay thanh thi d cac dia phffdng cham phdt tridn hay phat tridn cao se ngay mpt giam di.
De xem xet tffdng tdc cu the hdn, tdc gia tidn hanh dff bao xac sua't rdi vao ngheo da chieu, khi hd gia dinh d thanh thi hay ndng thdn d cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap tha'p va trung binh, vdi chd't Iffdng thd che cd cai thien hay khdng, dd cd cai nhin sau hdn. Vdi cac dia phffdng d mffc thu nhap tha'p nha't, khi hieu qua the che thd'p (bang ty le phan tram thff 10 eua cdc dia phffdng trong mdu), xac sua't ngheo dd'i vdi cac hd gia dinh sd'ng d thanh thi va nong
thdn la 16.6 diem phan tram (5% so vdi 21.6%); 5.8 didm phan tram d cdc dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap tha'p va 2.1 didm phan tram d cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap ra't cao. Khi hieu qua thd che dffdc cai thien (bang ty le phan tram thff 90), sff chenh lech nay giam xud'ng con 12.5 diem phan tram (6.8% so vdi 19.3%) d cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap rat tha'p;
1.3 didm phan tram d cac dia phffdng cd mffe thu nhap tha'p, nhffng de'n eae dia phffdng cd mffe thu nhap ra't cao, thi xdc sua't ngheo da chieu d ndng thdn lai tha'p hdn so vdi d thanh thi. Ket qua phan tich tff mo hinh bang cho tha'y:
Mgt Id, khi hieu qua the che dffdc cai thien, thi xac suat ngheo eiia nhffng hp gia dinh ndng thdn d nhffng dia phffdng ed mffc thu nhap ra't tha'p giam it hdn so vdi cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap tha'p trd len.
Hai td, viec giam didm phan tram chenh Idch xdc sua't ngheo giffa cac hg gia dinh thanh thi va nong thon chu ydu dffdc thdc day bdi sff giam di dang ke xac sua't ngheo da chieu do'i vdi cac hd gia dinh ndng thon d cdc dia phffdng ed mffe thu nhap thap trd len. Ket qua nay cho tha'y, anh hffdng cua hieu qua the chd dd'i vdi viec giam ngheo theo viang dien ra d cac dia phffdng cd mffc thu nhap tha'p trd len to't hdn vdi cac dja phffdng cd mffc thu nhap ra't thap.
KET LUAN
Tren cd sd phan tich d tren, cd thd riit ra mdt so' ket ludn danh gid tac dpng cua thd che'de^n ngheo da chieu d Vi6t Nam nhff sau:
NhO'ng khi'a c^nh tich ci^c va nguyen nhdn Thff nhdt, the che' cd tdc ddng tich cffc den ngheo da chieu khi xem xet mdt cdch tdng the. Khi kidm soat cac yeu to' khdc, dd'i vdi mgt hg gia dinh trung binh so'ng d mgt dia phffdng cd hieu qua the che'tha'p (bang ty le phan tram thff 10 ciia cae dia phffdng trong mdu), thi xdc sud't rdi vao tinh trang ngheo da chieu la 10.7%; trong khi dd, ciing d dia phffdng da'y, khi hieu qua thd che'tang len (bdng ty le phan tram thff 90), thi xdc suat ngheo da chieu cua cac hd gia dinh giam edn 9%. Nhff vdy, ed the thd'y, tdc ddng tich cffc Clia the che' dd^n ngheo da chidu d mgt dia phffdng cd chd't Iffdng va hieu qua quan tri td't hdn, thi ty le ngheo da chieu se cd xu hffdng giam nhanh va thd'p hdn so vdi nhffng dia phffdng cd cha't Iffdng va hieu qua quan tri ihd'p hdn.
Thd hai, cha't Iffdng the che td't ed the ddng mot vai trd trong viec giam ba't binh dang theo khu vffc. Kdt qua cho tha'y, cac hd gia dinh d khu vffc ndng thdn cd nguy cd ngheo da ehieu cao hdn, nhffng mffc dp bat ldi nay giam di, khi mffc do hieu qua the ehe ngay cang tang. Mdt nguyen nhan giai thich ed the la do Chinh phu, vdl hieu qua quan tri cao hdn. se thanh cong hdn trong viec cung ca'p cac djch vu ed ban va tiep can hang hda cdng cgng cho nhffng ngffdi d xa cac thanh phd Idn, tff dd cai thien phiic ldi d khu vffc ndng thon va tang cdng bang xa hpi.
Ecoiiom)' and Forecast Revie
MOt sd'han che'va ngiiyen nhSn ve mifc song cl khu vuc nong ' ' ' ° " "^J j'^jc Mac du da co nhO'ng day hieu tich ct;c bitdc dau ve dttdc flm thay doi vdi cdc hy p-i ui ^ ^ „ tac dpng ciia the che de'n ngheo da chieu, song vin con dja phi/cJng co tnitc thu nh-jp -.''"^ .. ^^^
ton tai nhieu han che can giai quye't, do la: (tha'p trd len). Nguy cd ddi '};'.''^^^^„
(i) Trong lihi hieu qua the che tot hdn cd lien quan cac hp gia dinh ndng t h o i i d c a c o u ^ p j i ^ den ngheo da chieu it hdn d cac dia phtTPng co miJc viing cd mijc thu nhap rat ™P *""^g ^j^-- thu nhap tha'p trd 16n, ty le ngheo da chieu vSn d'n dinh dinh, dii d cac cSp dp ve chat lirpng d cac mtfc dp the che khac nhau cho cac dia phUdng khac nhau hoac cai ttiien cham tidn.
cd mtfc thu nhap rat thap. Nhffng phat hien nay cho (iii) Hieu qua the che tang len co raeu thay, nhieu cupc cai each the che mang tinh hinh thilc iJng "ngKdc" vdi xac suat ngheo da cnie^
d cac dia phitdng, ndi nhO'ng cupc cai each the che chi ctia cac hp gia dinh 6 khu vtfc than . nham phyc vu cho mpt mtJC tieu nao dd, ma khong din Dieu nay co the xuat phat^ttf tin den giam mtfc ngheo da chieu nhif mong mud'n, ttf dd ngheo thanh thi cd nhieu diem khac diet cd the din de'n viec lang phi nguon Wc. Dieu nay cho vdi ngheo d khu vtfng ndng thon cy the tha'y, can mdt cacli tiep can loan dien va he did'ng hdn nhtf ngifdi ngheo d dianh tht phat dot khi iing ho cic chtnh sich cai cich the chS' de xoa bo mit vdi nhieu nguy cd hdn, tic dpng cua ddi nghep da chi^u. he diong tai chlnh. Hoic co the den W (ii) Viec phan tich tic dpng ciia viec song d khu vtfc nguygn nhan bp tieu chi dinh gia hieu dianh thi va nong dion, cOng nhtf cua cac dia phtfdng cd qua quan tri (chi so'PAPI) chtfa tinh nhieu mtfc thu nhap khac nhau cho Uiay ring, nhifng cai Uiien de'n tinh die diil cua khu vtfc dianh thi.Q
T A l L l f U THAM KHAO -
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Nxb Thd'ng ke
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