I QU6CTg
Vong xoay khiing hoang nof cong d EU va bai hoc cho Viet Nam
i& PGS.TS LE THI K I M DUNG TridrngD^ihpc ThUOngmai Nhffng nim gin diy, dnh trang
tiiSm hut ngin sich vi nd cdng ciSa EU di ldn dd'n con sd ding bio ddng. Cupc khflng hoing tii chinh xudt phit ttf My (9/2008) da bidn tiiinh cdn bio khflng hoing tii ehinh tien pham vi toin clu vi da kdo cic qudc gia tiiinh vidn EU rdi vio vdng xoiy khflng hoing. Vide ip dung cic bien phip vi cic gdi cflti tid kinh td nhtf giim Iai suat, cit giim thud, bdm tiln I at cho he thdng tii chinh - ngin hing cang lim cho dnh tiang tiiam hut ngan sich vi nd cdng them gia ting tiam tipng, nhtfng tinh hinh nin kinh id xa hdi van chtfa dtfdc cai thidn.
Khflng hoing nd edng d EU bit dau tff nffa sau nim 2009, vdi tinh tiang lim nguy vl tii chinh cfing cfla Hy Lap vi tidp do Ii nhdm cic ntfdc PnCS (Bo Dio Nha, h-eland, Italia, Tay Ban Nha). Khflng hoang nd cfing cua cic ntfdc EU xudt phit ttf nhieu nguydn nhan, luy nhidn ed thi tidp can d gde dp cic nguyen nhan chung vi nguyen nhan die thfl cfla tCfng ntfdc.
Nguydn nhdn chung ThU nhdt, vide gia nhip vio EU khidn cic ntfdc thinh vidn phii tff bd ehinh sich tiln td cfla chinh minh trong khi dilu kidn kinh id - xa hdi phit tiiln chim hdn so vdi cic ntfdc khic tiong hen minh. Day li nguydn nhan rd rang nhat cd the ihdy li do stf thidu hii hda cfla cic chinh sich cfla EU vdi dilu kidn kinh id cua cic ntfdc phit tiien cham hdn trong hen minh. Cie chinh sich cfla hen minh da dan ddn stf chenh lech ve phit trien kinh td ngiy cing ldn hdn gitfa cic
O Sd6-2013
ntfde trong khu vtfc. Trong khi cic ntfdc Nam Au ting tiirdng rdt chim, nhilu ntfdc lim vio khflng hoing nd cfing, Dtfc nhanh chdng trd thinh dlu tiu kinh id cfla chau Au.
Stf ring budc cfla cic chinh sich cfla EU cung khidn cho cic ntfdc niy gip khd khin ti'ong vide fltig phd kjp tiidi vdi khflng hoing nd cfing. Chinh sich tien td chtfa phfl hdp vdi dilu kidn kinh td chung cfla cic ntfdc trong Udn minh. din ddn vide nhieu ntfdc ngay ttf khi mdi gia nhip da vdp phii nhiJng khd khin tiong chenh lech lai suat vi ty gii.
Thich ditfc trong cd chd dilu hinh Iai suat, kilm chd lam phit giffa mpt bdn li ngin hing Trung tfdng chiu Au (ECB) vdi mot bdn li chinh sich din te cua cic qudc gia tiiinh vien. He thdng ECB bao gom (ECB vi 16 ngin hing trung tfdng cfla cic qudc gia thinh vidn) dilu hinh chinh sich din td tiieo muc tidu phit tiiln vi kilm chd lam phit, cu till, lai sudt tidn tiu tiirdng tiln td do ECB quy djnh nham tao
nin tang eho vide hinh tiiinh vi on djnh dong Euro. Trong khi dd Iai sudt trii phieu chinh phfl lai do chinh phfl efla ntfdc thinh vidn quydt djnh, quyet djnh cua Bp Tii chinh phu tiiupc vio chinh sich tii khda cfla tffng qudc gia. Hy Lap Ii ntfdc cd ning ltfc canh Q:anh kdm hdn so vdi cic tiiinh vidn tiong khdi, tiiim hut ngin sich cao nen phii phit hinii ti^i phidu ehinh phu vdi lai sudt eao nh^m tao nguln ltfc tai ehinh d l chi tra cho cie muc tidu on dinh kinh td, an sinh xa hfii...
Nhfflig bdt cip nhtf viy da ban chd vi tao ra nhilu diich tiitfc do khdng till stf dung cMnh sich den te lim cfing cu huti hidu d l tiiflc dly ting tiirdng vi phit tiien kinh te.
Trtfdng hdp efla Ireland cflng la mfit vi du. Muc dich chinh sich cho srf Irfa chpn gia nhap Eurozone cfla Ireland li nham ip dung cic cMnh sich din td efla Dtfc, do dd ding hda cic chinh sich cfla minh vdi ding din chfl dao tiong Eurozone.
Tuy nhidn, tinh hinh kinh td xa hpi
^mmam mssm
I QU6C TE I cfla heland vi Dtfc - nin kmh tdldn
nhdt Eurozone niy Iai khdng cd nhilu dilm tifdng ding. Blng vide tham gia Eurozone, Ireland da ttf bd quyln td chfl ddi vdi lai suat va d gia ngoai id, ding tiidi ip dung cie chinh sich cfla Dtfc cho mfit nin kinh td hoin toin khdng ttfdng dong. Stf bat hdp U trong chinh sich CO till dtfdc tiidy ti^ng nim 2011, khi mi lai sudt cao li cln diidt cho mpt nen kinh id dang di Idn cfla Dtfc ti-ong khi nin kinh Id' dang di xudng cfla Ireland lai cln mdt mot mffc Iii sudt tiia'p [6]. Vdn dl niy khong chi cfla Hy Lap, Ireland mi c6n Ii vdn dl chung cfla cic ntfdc dang tiong tinh tiang mtfc nd cfing cao nhtf Bl Dio Nha, Tiy Ban Nha...
ThU hai, cic ntfdc thinh vien Eurozone de ding tidp can cic nguln vdn dlu ttf ntfdc ngoii nhtfftg do stf ydu kem tiong quin ly khidn cac ntfdc niy lim vio tinh ti^ng tham hut ngan sach nghidm trong.
Sau khi gia nhip khu vtfc dong tien chung Eurozone, cic ntfdc cd cd hpi dep can vdi cic nguon vdn qudc td.
Viec sff dung dong tiln chung euro cflng vdi cic ntfdc ldn nhtf Dffc, Phap mang de'n mot hinh inh ben vflng cho nhfltig nffdc kdm phit tiien hdn. Do dd, cac ntfdc nay da thu hflt dtfdc dlu ttf ntfdc ngoii vdi lai suat thdp tiong mdt thdi gian dai. Vide dl dai tiong tin dung niy mang ca y nghTa kinh id vi chinh trj do EU mudn tiiuc day nhanh stf Udn kdt sau rdng cfla cic ntfdc thfing qua viec vay nd dl phit triln kinh td Tuy nhidn, khi dtfdc tidp can nguon vdn doi dao nhtf viy, cic ntfdc da khdng stf dung hidu qua, chi ddu qui tay. Thu chi khdng hdp 1;?, lang phi ngin sich nhi ntfdc vio nhiftig dau ttf kdm hidu qui, va
tiiam nhflng, tidn thudli nhutig vdn dl nli com kdo ho Ifln siu vio vdng xoiy khflng hoing. Hy Lap li vi du diln hinh vl vide ydu kdm tiong quin IJ vi chi tidu ngan sich dan ddn diim hut ngin sich cao. Theo bio cio cfla t l chffc Minh bach thd gidi nim 2010. t^ Id tiiam nhung dtfa tidn ehi sd nhin thtfc tham nhung tiii Hy Lap dtfdc xdp hang li qudc gia cd t;y Id tham nhflng dac biet cao so vdi cic qudc gia tiong khu vtfc Nam Au.
ThU ba, kinh td lang trtfdng cham, sffc canh tranh kdm, ning sudt lao dpng thdp Ii ydu td tilm ting vi da tin lai tiong mfit thdi gian dai cua cic qudc gia nhff Bo Dio Nha, Itaha. Bo Dao Nha Ii mil xich ydu nhat tiong khu vtfc dong euro. Trtfdc day, nen kinh td cfla ntfdc niy da hai lln khflng hoing vi phai kdu gpi stf tid giup tff bdn ngoii. Cd the thay, mIm mdng khflng hoang tai ntfdc nay da bat dlu Iff mpt thdi gian dai, khi ma ting tiidng thdp kl Iff nam 2001.
Nim 2003, Bo Dao Nha bi suy thoai (tang trtfdng - 0,9%), nffdc trong khd'i dong liln chung euro duy nhat cflng vdi Dtfc (-0,2%) bj ting trtfdng am trong nam dd.
Ttfdng Itf, tiUdc khi khung hoang nd cfing, nin kinh Id'Itaha da cd nhutig van de trong mot thdi gian dii.
Ting trtfdng kinh tdllaUa chi d mffc 0,75% Irong sudt 15 nam qua.
Nguyen nhin cua ldc dp tang trtfdng thdp cfla Italia li nang suit lao dpng khfing dtfdc cai thidn do cic doanh nghidp it dlu ttf R&D va cic chinh sich thj Irtfdng lao ddng cfla Italy cdn nhilu bat cap. Cung nhtf Hy Lap, Italia cd thi trtfdng vide lim tich bidt, mot thi trtfdng vide Iam cho thanh nien va mpt Ihi irtfdng vide lim cho ngtfdi cao ludi.
Cic dao luit vide lim ctitig nhac khidn cic cfing nhan bic cao khfing till phit huy dnh sing tao. Trong khi dd, ti Id tiidt nghidp tiong tiianh nidn Italia li tidn 27%, khi hp lim vide theo cic hdp ding ngin ban.
Nhfltig dilu niy di cin tid vide ting ning sual lao dpng. Cung nhtf vay, vdi xuat phit dilm li mdt qudc gia nhd, nguon tii nguydn ban hep, ning Itfc canh tianh ydu... khidn tinh hinh sin xudl tiong ntfdc cua Hy Lap sau khi gia nhip ngiy cing dinh tie, ly Id tiidt nghidp gia ling...
bupc chinh phu phai gia ting nguln chi lii ehinh dau ttf cdng, thflc day phit tiiln sin xudl.
ThU tu, khflng hoing kinh id toin clu lim tilm tipng them tinh hinh nd cdng d cic ntfdc thinh vidn EU, rui ro nd cdng cao, nd vay ntfdc ngoii chidm t^ trpng ldn.
Stf sup do cua ngan hing Lehman Brotiiers (thing 9/2008) sau 158 nam tin tai da md dtfdng cho cdn bao khflng hoan^ lai chinh tien pham vi loan cau. 0 vao vi tri
"tam bao". My la ntfdc chiu ton thai ning nl nhdt. Stf suy thoii cfla nen kinh td sd' 1 the gidi da khidn hlu hd't cic qud'c gia dlu rdi vio vong xoay khung hoang, tiong do cd cic ntfdc khd'i EU. Dtfdc lac dpng cfla cudc khflng hoang tai chinh toin cau 2008, bupc chinh phfl Hy Lap phai tung ra nhutig gdi cflti trd khfi'ng ll dl cflti van nin kinh td, nd cfing vi thd cang gia tang manh. Nd cfing cfla Hy Lap va Bo Dio Nha nghiem tipng mpt phln la do nd vay ntfdc ngoii chidm phan ldn. Ty Id tiii phid'u do ntfdc ngoai nam gitf lai Hy Lap ldn ldi 80% Itfdng tiii phidu chinh phu phit hinh vdi chfl nd phln ldn li cie ngan hang chau Au.
(Con nUa) Tai li|u tham khao:
1. European Commission 2009.
2. Nguyin An Hd: Bdo cdo thudng niin tinh hinh chdu Au 2010.
3 Khing hodng npHy Lap... http://Vietstock.vn/27-5-2010.
4. Bo Ddo Nha suy sup vi np cdng. Tiin phong online 25/8/2011.
5. Ddi RFI ngdy 14/7/2011. Bdn tin tham khdo dac biit, TTXVN I9/7/201I...
