XUNG DOT THl/dNG MAI MY - TRUNG VA CAC KHUYEN NGHI CHO VIET NAM
• NGUYEN THANH HOA BINH
T 6 M T \ T :
M\ \ a Tmng Qudc Id 2 do'i tac thddng mai trpng yeu cua nhieu nddc tren the gidi, trongdd cd Viet N.ini Bai vie't td'ng kei eac nguyen nhan gdy xung dot thUdng mai My - Trung tLf gdc nhin cii hai ben u-anh chap. Su" dung phddng phdp phdn tich sd lieu xua't nhap khau tir 2010- 2019 cua Tong cue Hai quan Vici Nam \ a Trung tam Thifdng niai Qud'e te, tac gia da phan tich dir li^u thifdng mai giii'a cdc nifde M\. Trung Qudc va Viet Nam. Dong thdi chi ra nhifng thay doi ldn trong ndm 2019 dUde xem Id ket qua tnrc tiep cua chien tranh thifdng mai My - Trung doi vdi kinh te Vici Nam,
Tde gia da difa ra khuyen nghi can thie't eho Viet Nam u-ong lan dung cd hpi tCf vi^e cdc cdng ty ddi chuyd'n khdi Trung Quoc \ a han ehe nhifng tde dpng lieu cdc tif cac chuyS'n hu'dng thifdng mai khi xung dpi giifa eac nddc ldn cdn nhieu diln lien phd'e tap.
Ttf khda; Xung dot thifdng mai, edn can thifdng mai, ehid'n tranh thddng mai My -Trung.
l.lHlil va'ndf>
My va Trung QIUK ta hai dd'i ide thifdng mai tdn \a quan irong cua nhieu ni/dc tren lhe'gidi.
Dde biel dd'i \di Vici Nam, M\ la thi tnfdng \ual khau Idn nhd't va Trung Qudc ta thi irddng nhap khd'u Idn nha't.
Neil M\ ap iliiic quan cao cho mdt qudc gia.
khdng eo nghia la thu'dng mai giam, nd chi iam dieh chu\en ihi infdng. Trung Qude se chd'ng kie'n Mf suigiani manh trong diiu iirtri/e tiep ndde ngoai khi CIC eong ly da quo'c gia chuyen boat dpng "-ang eac ndde khae. eung nhu" Mf suy giani ide dp tang trifdng kinh tc iiem ndng eua nu'dc na\. .Mai khde.
M\ sc khdng chi mat thi phan tren thi tn/dng Trung Qudc. ma edn phai nhap lif eae nguon dat hdn Nhu*
\ .!>. ca lhi tnfdng Trung Qudc \ ^i M\ deu cd qua irinh dicu chinh hinh thanh quan he Jui idc thu'dng mai mdi.
\ c lau dai. nen kinh le the gidi ^C• ddi mat \di nguy ed phan eifc thanh hai khd'i kinh te lap trung
\ io hai eiTdng qudc. Vict N.im vdi \ i iri dia 1> giap hicn gidi \di Tning Qudc \a eac dac thii md'i quan he \ lei - Trung. chac ehae ^C- gdp nhieu idc ddng.
Vl vay, viec ddnh gid ban cha'l xung dpt My - Trung. hfdng dinh thdi gian va nhO'ng tac dpng de'n c:ic nganh san xua't. xua'l nhap khiiu eua Viet Nam la ra'l can thie't. Tren ed sd do, Viet Nam can chO dpng vii cd ehien lu'dc phu hdp de tan dung cd hdi tham gia chuoi cung dng mdi se difdc hinh thanh, han che nhu'ng tac dpng lieu cdc id cdc chuyen hu'dng thu'dng mai khi xung dot giii'a edc nu'dc Idn cdn nhieu dien lien phdc lap.
2. Danh gia xung dgt thu'dng mai My - Trung 2.1. ThUc trgng cdn edn thUang mgi My - Trung
Can can thu'dng mai trong edc nam gan day giiJa My - Trung Qud'e luon d cung vi the: My nhap sieu iLf Trung Quo'e con so'ra't Idn nhieu nam lien.
Ty trpng tham hut thifdng mai ddi vdi Trung Quoc ludn ehie'm tren 40% trong td'ng so' tham hut cua My dd'i vdi loan the gidi trong sud't thdi gian 2012- 20l8(Bang I).
So lieu ndm 2019 sut giam eho iha\ cdc bien phdp ap ihue'da phai huy tac dung, ldn diiu lien Iham hui thu'dng mai tif Trung Quo'c cua My diidi4Q9c.
64 So 8 - Thdng 4/2020
KINH IE
Bang 1. Thdm hut ttii/<Aig mgt M y - T r u n g Q u o c
Nim I MyNKti>TQ(1) MyXK sangTQ(2)
Tham hut v6i TQ Tong Tham hut ; Ty Inpng tham htit thUdng j (3) = (2)-(1) oia My (4) mal My - Tmng (3)/(4) : 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
444,39 459,11 486,30 504,03 481,37 525,80 563,23 472,47
110,52 121,72 123,68 116,07 116,59 129,80 120,15 106,63
(333,87) (337,39) (362,62) (387,96) (365,78) (396,00) (443,09) (365,85)
(789,75) (749,00) (791,11) (811,58) (797,65) (859,90) (946,39) (923,22)
42,3%
45,0%
45,8%
47,8%
45,9%
46,1%
46,8%
39,6%
A (;»('"-• ITC. UN Cnmtrude USA
2.2. Nguyen nhan xung dgt thiidiig mgi My va Trung Qudc
Cd nhieu nghien cd'u ve nguyen nhan xung dot ihu'dng mai vd vl sao My iie'p tue leo thang cuoc Ihu'dng chien ke tCf nam 2018 de'n nay. Nhin chung ed the phdn thdnh nhdm nghien cdu du'ng d gde nhin Trung Quo'c va nhdm d gde nhin My.
Ddng ve quan diem My. eae nghien cii'u tap Irung vdo nguyen nhan xung dot do Trung Qud'e thifc hien thu'dng mai khdng cdng bang, dm each ehie'm ITnh thj trifdng trong nifde va ddn dau toan eau. Kwan (2020) cho rang i) Trung Qud'e dd trien khai cde khodn trd ca'p va cac hlnh thli'c ho trd tai chinh khde cho cdc nganh cdng nghiep trong nddc.
lit Trung Qudc sif dung edc ban ehe sd hifu nifde ngoiii. bao gdm han che' ve vd'n ehu sd hu'u, han ehe'd^u tif khde. cde thu tue \eni xet va ca'p phep hdnh chinh, de yeu cau hodc gay dp liJe chuyen giao cdng nghe tCf eac cdng ty My sang cdc thifc the Trung Qud'e, iii) Trung Qud'e chi dao va tao dieu kien eho eae cong ty nha nifdc dau tifva mua lai cac cdng ty va tai .san cua My de cd difde eac cdng nghe tien tie'n \a sd hu'u tri tue.
Bdng ve quan diem Tmng Qud'e, mot so' nghien cii^i chi ra ddng life eua Hoa Ky trong viec lien hanh mpt cuoc chien ihu'dng mai khdng chi ddn ihuan la liim giam tham hut thu'dng mai ma con kini ham sif plidt trien cua Trung Qudc. difde xem nhif mdt thdch ihi'rc quyen ba chu ciia M\- Cao bupe Trung Qud'e thifdng mai khdng cong bdng la khdng cd can cdva khdng cd gi hdn la mpt cdi cd (Ren. 2018).
Chinh sdch dd'i ngoai cua Hoa Ky tuan theo quy Idc dO^r cua nu'dc Anh. qu\ dinh rang bat eii' khi nao mdt qud'e gia nu'dc ngoai dat mdc GDP 60%
cua Hoa Ky ve quy md kinh te va tie'p tue tdng tru'dng nhanh. de dpa se vu'dt qua nen kinh lc' Hoa Ky. Hoa Ky nen xem dd la mpl dd'i ihu vd ddnh bai nd bdng mpi each.
Dd'i vdi Hoa Ky. Trung Qud'e la mpt dd'i thu chifa tdng cd dang dat diTdc td'e dp tang trifdng kinh li nhanh hdn va ed item nang phong phii hdn so
\'di edc dd'i thu tnrdc da\' nhd Lien Xd hodc Nhat Ban. trd thanh md'i de dpa do'i vdi nguyen tac
"American tlrst" eua My. (Kwan. 2020).
2.3. Ddnh gid dien tie'n xung dgt My vd Trung Qudc
Xung dot giii'a M\ \ a Trung Quo'c se khong ddn thuan la kinh te' thu'dng mai. Theo thdi gian xung dot bao gom eae khia canh ehinh tri, van hda va quan sif. VI nhiJng ly do nay. dien lien xung dot la phiJc lap, khdng lhe dodn tru'dc du'de va khd cd the eha'm ddt trong ngdn han. Rui ro ldn nha't trong dai han la M\ va Trung Qud'e chia thanh hai pham vi anh hu'dng, mpl la nhdm cac nu'dc xoay quanh true My va luan thu cdc tieu ehuan tif cong nghe den quan tri eua My va mpt trung tam khac xoay quanh Trung Qud'e.
Nhat Ban va Lien minh ehau Au eho bie't hp da chia se quan diem eua Hoa Ky ve nhu cau bao ve quyen sd hifu tri lue manh me hdn va hp cOng lo ngai ve ede yeu eau ea'p phep cdng nghe ciia Trung Qude.
Tai thi tru'dng M>. hang hda che tao dddc san xud't va cung ea'p lif cac nguon (I) Nhdm cdc nifde ehau A ed chi phi siin xua't tha'p. gpi tat la ASEAN LLCs (Low cost coutries) bao gom: Trung Quoc.
Dai Loan (Trung Qudc). Hdng Kdng (Trung Quoet. \n Do. Srilanka. Pakistan va 7 nu'dc thupc
So 8-Thang 4/2020 65
khd'i .Asean i\'iet Nam. Thai Lan. Mala\sia.
Indonesia. Philipines, Singapores, Campodia); \a i2i cac nhd sdn xua't npi dia M> (Keamej, 2020).
Theo \ i c n Nghien ci?u Toan cau Keame\
(2020). viec M\ dich chuyen thu'dng mai nhap khau hang hda che'tao tif Trung Qudc sang cdc nifdc khde trong nhdm LLCs da didn ra trong sudt 5 ndm gan day va gia tang dpi bie'n trong ndm 2019 do anh hudng eupe ehien thUdng mai \di Trung Qudc. Trong sd'cac nifde LLCs hu'dng ldi tif Slf dich chuyen na\. sd lieu eho tha'y Viet Nam ehiem gan phan n^a kim ngach. (Kearney. 2020).
3. Tinh hinh tht/dng mai cua \'ict Nam vdi Trung Quo'c \a M>
3.1. Thtfc trgng cdn cdn thticfng mgi Vifl .\am vd Trung Qudc
Trong hdn 200 qudc gia. viing lanh dio cd hoat dpng xua't nhdp kha'u vdi Viet Nam. Trung Quoe lie'p IUC la thi tru'dng ldn nha't va ndm 2019 lii ndm thd hai lien licp kim ngach giiTa 2 ndde dat tren
100 i\ USD.
Vici Nam dang la thi tn/dng ehii li/e, thupe Top cac nu'dc nhap kha'u hiing Trung Qudc xe'p sau My, EU, Hong Kong, Nhat Ban vii Han Qud'e. Ddc biet irong ndm 2019. Trung Qud'e ghi nhan 3 chi lieu k\ luc ddi vdi Viet Nam: thi phan eao nha'l. tang iru'dng cao nhd't, nhap sidu cao nha't. 34 tv USD tdng 47''; so vdi ndm 2018: chie'm 29.8% tong tu'dng hang hda Viel Nam nhap khau. cd td'e dp tdng tnfdng kim ngach nhdp khau cao nha't 15,2%
sovdi ciing ky niim 2018 (Bang 2).
Rieng mde nhiip sieu tdng 47% so vdi nam 201S Id eao ba't thifdng so vdi cac nam tru'dc.
3.2. Thtic trgng cdn cdn thiiifiic inoi V 'f/ Nam vd My
Ki iLf ndm 2016. My lien iuc U thi infdng xuat kha'u ldn nha't cua Viet Nam \a Viei Nam ludn d trong trang thai xua't sieu vdi My.
Sau 25 nam binh thu'Ong hda quan he. mi?c thue nhap khau hien nay giii'a Vift Nam \ a My Id mdc thue u^i dai MFN (Most Favored Nation) danh cho cac nifdc eung la thanh \ ien WTO. Mdc thud' ndy ludn cao hdn mdc thue ufu dai dac biet Viet Nam
\a Trung Quo'c trong trufdng hdp du dieu ki^n hifdng iru dai theo bieu thue ACFTA (Asean China Free trade Agreement).
So' lieu eiia Tong cue Hai quan Viet Nam cho thd'y kim ngach xua't kha'u ciia Viet Nam nam 2019 vao lhi tnrdng My dat td'e dp tang tru'dng cao nhii'i 29.1% so vdi eung ky nam 2018 (Bang 2).
Ndm 2019, Viet Nam da gia tdng thi phan ddng ke. tif 0,92% nam 2012 da ien den 2,7% thi phdn hang hda nhap khau cua My, xe'p thd 7 sau Nhal Ban, EU, Trung Quo'c, Mexico, Canada, Hdn Quo'c. Cd the thd'y Viet Nam la dai dien mdi noi d Chau A dang vu'dt len trong vai trd cung ii'ng mill hang ehe tao cho thi tru'dng My (Hinh 2).
4. Ke't lu^n va cac khuye'n nghi dd'i \6\ Vi$t Nam
Chinh phu can dieu tra so' lieu ehi tie't de n^m bat doanh nghiep, ngdnh hang, san pha'm da gia tang lifdng xuat khau tif Viet Nam sang thi tnfdng My eung nhdda gia tang lifdng nhap khau ttf Trung Quoc vao Viet Nam trong ndm 2019. TCf dd, Chinh phu se cd eac quye't sach kip thdi dam bao qudn IJ du'de xuat xd nguon hang xuat khau. Can ed chinh Bang 2. Kim nggch xuat nhqp khdu cue Viet Nam vdi thj tn/dng ctiu life nam 2019
DVT: fy USD Thi&udng 1
Trung Quoc My Han Quoc ASEAN EU(28)
Cac nuoe khac long cong
Kim ngach XK
41,41 61,35 19,72 24.96 41,48
^ 2 0 4 1 " "
54 36
S/vNam 2018(%)
0,1%
29,1%
8.1%
1.3%
-1.0%
8.4%
Ty trong
(%)
15,7%
23,2%
7,5%
9,4%
15,7%
7.7%
20.8%
100.0%
Kim ngach NK 75,45 14,37 46,93 32,09 14,91 19,53 49,79 253,07
S/v Nam 2 018 (%)
15,2 12,7 -1,4 0,9
2,5 "
0
Nfinttii: T:.i . Ty trpng
(%)
29,8%
5,7%
18,5%
12.7%
7,7%
19,7%
100,0%
'lc Hdt qtiatt
66 So 8 - T h a n ;
KINH IE
Hinh 2: Cac nUdc xuat khdu chu lUc vao My 2012-2019
25* 20.48% 19.03%
18.40%
14.07%
12.74%
6,44% 5.72% 3.11%
EU China Mexico Canada Han quoc Viet Nam 2013 20X4 2015 • 2016 •2017 12018 12019
sdch dam bao san xua't thde sif tai Viet Nam.
khdng ddn thuan Id diem ehuyen tdi eua eae doanh nghiep Trung Qud'e trdnh thue cao.
Cd h0i duy iri va phat trien moi quan he doi tae vdi thi trifdng My va EU, hai thi trifdng xua'l kha'u chu life cua Viet Nam hien nay cdn ra't ldn. Vdi quy md GDP vd xua't khau eua Viet Nam, thang dif thu'dng mai tiJ" Viet Nam do'i vdi hai thi trufdng ldn ndy Id khdng ddng ke. Tif ed sd danh gia xu hddng xung dpi My va Trung Qud'e eon keo dai.
eiing vdi xu hifdng cae edng ty My vd ehau Au dang dinh hmh lai mang lu'di cung u'ng cua minh.
Vi^i Nam dang difdc nhin nhdn la diem Ida ehon quan trong dau tien trong khu vifc ASEAN.
Ngay ca trddc cuoc chien thu'dng mai. cdc edng ly Nhat Ban, Han Quo'c vd Dai Loan da bdt dau da dang hda dau tif san xua't ra nifdc ngodi. trong do cd dau tif vao Viet Nam vd ede qud'e gia Dong Nam A khde. Mgt so' trifdng hdp dau tu' con vifdt quy mo tai Trung Qudc, nhif vdi san pham dien ihoai di dgng eua Samsung Electronics vao Viet Nam. Hien nay, eae cong ty My dang rdi khdi Trung Qudc ngay cang nhieu hdn v'l tde dgng kep cua cuge ehien thifdng mai va dai dieh COVID-19;
dong thdi them cdc cdng ty Nhat Ban - nha eung u'ng hdng nhdp khau ldn nha'l eho M\ - tham gia vao eugc di chuyen niiy.
Tren the gidi. tai My va cdc mfdc chau Au. cac tieu chuan lu'a chgn nha cung iJng nu'dc ngoai da
Nguon: ITC. UN Comlrade USA du'de can nha'c thay doi. chi phi san xua't tha'p khong cdn yeu cau quan trgng nha't md la sif can bang giffa eac ye'u tdehi phi san xua't - rui ro (thue' quan) - kha nang hoi phue sau nhiJng sif cd' khdng lu'dng tru'dc (Kearney. 2020).
Tuy nhien, mot va'n de ton tai lif nhieu nam id cac nen kinh te Ddng Nam A dang phu thuge ra't nhieu vao Trung Quo'c v6 nguyen lieu dau vao san xua't. Do dd, chie'n lUdc ehuyen ehudi gid tri tif Trung Qud'e sang Ddng Nam A vdi Viet Nam la dng cd vien hang dau se cd han ehe' vd ma't thdi gian lau hdn.
Van de thu' hai. cung ehung tinh hlnh suy tram kinh te the gidi tif djeh benh COVID-19, nhieu doanh nghiep Viet Nam ne'u khdng ihao gd khd khan kip thdi, phu hdp. se khd tru vdng, dan de'n nguy ed eao difdc chao mdi sdt nhap, thon tinh. Da cd nigt so' bang ehdng sd bo cho thay cde nha xua'l khau Trung Qud'e de tiep tuc xua't kha'u sang My co the da bat dau chiu mot phan ehi phi thue quan du'di dang gia xua't kha'u tha'p hdn (Alessandro Nicita. 2019) hoae tai dinh vi ndi dau tu'nha may.
Chinh phii can he't sdc lifu tam ve va'n de dieh ehuyen thay doi von dau tif, mua ban va sdp nhap trong thdi diem nay tif eae nha dau td Trung Qud'e vao Viet Nam. Tff dd. cd nhiTng hd trd nhanh eho eac doanh nghiep nho Viel Nam thuoc nganh nghe thie't yeu cho sif phdt trien kinh te ben vffng cua moi quo'c gia •
So 8 - T h a n g 4/2020 67
T.VI LljT THWI KH.iO:
,. Alejandro v . , u (2019,. 7™* - . ™ * < / . - - . ' . ' # < - ".f Unite,,States tariffs an Oiitia ,SER.RP™l9/9 No 17; p. 17). L NCT AD.
. ITC 1 ,'0:0. Tra„e'~lap-Ustoftntpar,ins,naHte,sforthepratluc,e.i:por,edl,yCht,ta.
3 ITC 1 l-O'OI Trade •.Ut,!-List of sitpplsi,tg,narl.ets.far a product ttttported by \ic,Na,n.
...C.ia».n.Trade.ap.U.ttt,snpplyt.i.ntar.ets!^^^^^^^^^
c,/ ,„ 7nici Redwrinti Index, foreshadowing COVID-ti^ test
;.. Kearney. K. 12020). Trade star.tpttrs sliarp reversal tti 20fi Kestiotinf. tiiacx., of supph chain resilience t^.\<».Y.estmi:\
^Kwan C H ,2020, The Ch,na-L:S Trade War: Deep#Roo,ed Causes, Shim„g Focus and Uncena.n Prospea.
AsianEcon„,„icPolicvRerie.:im.^}-72.httpsMoi.orsm.illl/aepr.l.-S4
1. Re„ P. ,20,8,. The fundan,en,al reason «h> the U.S. waged a ,rade war. Vie Peoples Daily. 9 Angus, Ngay nh§n bai; 26/3/2020
Nsa> phan biijn danh gia vii s i a chfla; 6/4/2020 Nga\ cha'p nhan dSng bai: 16/4/2020 Tltotts tin tttc tint •
ThS. NGL^ KN THANH H 6 , \ BINH Giang vi6n TrtfBng Dai hpc Lac H6ng
THE CHINA - UNITED STATES TRADE WAR AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR VIETNAM
Master. NGUYEN THANH HOA BINH Lecturer. Lac Hong University ABSTRACT:
The Uniled Stales and China are Iwo imponant trading partners of many countries in the world, cspccialh for Vietnam. This article summarizes the causes of China - United States trade war from the perspective of both sides. This article analyzes trade data beiween the United States. China and Vielnam by usingimport and export data from 2010-2019 of the Vietnam General Depanment of Customs and The Inlemational Trade Centre (ITC) to point oul major changes in trade between Vielnam. China and the United States in 2019 which are considered direct outcomes of the China - United States trade war for Vietnam's economy.
Tins article prese,i,s some necessary recommendations which help Vielnam take advantage of opportunities when companies are moving their productions out of China and limit negative impacts of die China - L'nncd Stales trade war.
Keywords: Trade disputes, trade balance. China - United Stales trade war.
68 So 8 - Thang 4/2020
