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Table 5.9.2: Our result for Bonny NIG compared to Krichene’s (2008) Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) Parameters

Lambda Alpha.bar Mu Sigma Beta

Our result -0.5 1.6638 0.2972 0.9687 -0.2972

Krichene 2000m1-2003m4 -0.5 1.46 0.08 2.22 -0.08

Krichene 2003m5-2005m10 -0.5 2.68 0.29 1.69 -0.17

good in modeling skewness and heavy-tailed data. This explains why these two distributions dominated others in fitting the three datasets.

In modeling the volatility process for the three datasets we compared five probability den- sity functions in the extreme value distribution family (the Weibull, lognormal, gamma, inverse gamma and the inverse Gaussian distributions) along with the normal distribution. With sim- ilar argument as presented above, the two-parameter Weibull density function is recommended for volatility in Pennsylvania electricity futures prices and Bonny light crude oil while the gamma density function is recommended for natural gas dataset. These results show the in- ability of the Gaussian process to fit high frequency data as underscored by Mandelbrot (1963) and Fama (1965) in which both authors proposed stable distributions for modeling skewness and kurtosis. The high kurtosis in the electricity returns series of Chapter Four is hereby ad- dressed. The main attraction to the GH distributions is that they are constructed as mixtures of variance-mean normal distributions with time varying stochastic variance.

Chapter 6 Conclusion

We have not succeeded in answering all our problems. The answers we have found only serve to raise a whole lot of new questions. In some ways we feel we are as confused as ever, but we believe we are confused on a higher level and about more important things. - B. Øksendal (2000)

This Thesis is in two parts: mathematical and statistical− with each part comprising two chapters. In Part One we discussed the theory and analysis of partial differential equations using the Lie symmetry technique to analyse an evolution partial differential equation arising from financial mathematics, see for instance, equation (3.1.1) of Chapter Three. The second part concerns applications to real life problems where calibrations and statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed.

A formula (proposition 2.3.1) for the nth prolongation of a generator Γ with k indepen- dent and p dependent variables of an nth-order partial differential equation is proposed and we claim to have extended the result (equation (2.3.6)) derived by Mahomed and Leach in 1990. The basic problem in the modeling of physical and other phenomena is to find solu- tions of differential equations. Many methods of solution of differential equations use a change of variables that transforms a given differential equation into another equation with known properties. We constructed a transformation that maps symmetries of our PDE invertibly into the heat equation which is a well studied equation with appealing characteristics. As a result

of the symmetry analysis performed we also show that our given partial differential equation admits a finite number of Lie point symmetries characterized by the six-dimensional algebra isomorphic to{sl(2, R)⊕W3} ⊕s∞A1,with one solution symmetry where the subalgebra is of the Heisenberg-Weyl type. Two general solutions calculated from the twelve optimal systems of invariant solutions are given in equations (3.3.40) and (3.3.49). It is our thinking that these equations will one day be found useful for practical applications.

The complete probability space (Ω,F,P) with natural filtration {Fk}1 and Levy proceses Lt were assumed. We propose a dynamic linear model (DLM) with switching regimes for modeling the stochastic volatility of log return series for prices of electricity contracts. A modified Kalman filter algorithm was introduced to fit the regime-switching Markov model and estimation of the parameters using quasi-maximum likelihood method were performed. Results displayed in Ta- ble 4.7.1 are comparable to results obtained by Kellerhals (2004) using affine structure models for spot and futures prices, and Krichene (2008) for crude oil prices using GARCH(1,1) models.

It will be of interest to compare our model with models used by Kellerhals and Krichene using our dataset.

Two observations were immediate. The first is that both small and large changes come clus- tered, i.e., there are periods of low and high volatility. The second is that, from time to time, we observe rather large changes which may be hard to reconcile with the standard distributional assumption in statistics and econometrics, that is, normality. From empirical results the dataset exhibited volatility clustering followed by mean reversion with half-life of nine months. This informed our use of Gaussian mixtures in the model. The mixing of Gaussian distributions is well suited for financial modeling, as it allows for the construction of very flexible distributions.

This fact is demonstrated in Chapter Five, where the normal-mean-variance mixture, on which the generalized hyperbolic distribution (GH) of Barndorff-Nielsen (1977) is based, generally exhibits heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution. We used this to great advantage. Inter- estingly we derived our DLM based on this idea and the generalization of the Vasicek and CIR models (or for some authors, the general Heston model) governed by the stochastic differential equation (4.3.12). The adequacy of our model was authenticated by the preliminary study of the dataset that displayed evidence of first-order autocorrelation showing that the state variable

is a first-order autoregressive AR(1) process.

The major concern in Chapter Five was the identification of the probability distribution of the process that generated the dataset. From each of the three datasets (Daily Pennsylvania Electricity Future Contract, Weekly Bonny Crude oil Spot prices and Daily Natural Gas Prices) we generated and studied two concomitant variables: log return series and volatility series.

Five probability density functions of the generalized hyperbolic family (Generalized Hyperbolic (GH), Hyperbolic (HYP), Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG), Variance-Gamma (VG), and Skew Student-t (SSt)) and five from the extreme value family (Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, Inverse Gaussian and Inverse gamma) were fitted to the datasets and compared with the Normal distribution as the benchmark.

We established that energy return series is fat-tailed and with significant kurtosis. The normal distribution showed very poor fit in both series. Using the Akaike Information (AIC) and the Log-likelihood (LLH) criteria, we conclude that NIG (which is a mixture of the normal and the inverse Gaussian distributions) is best suited to fit and for prediction of prices for Pennsylvania electricity future contracts. This model performed well in fitting the crude oil dataset but ranked second only to SSt. The SSt (which also has a convolution property) dominated other five candidate models (74% dominance) in the natural gas dataset. With this result we posit that SSt is good for fitting oil and gas datasets while NIG is the choice for electricity series, see Table 6.0.1. These results are not surprising. The SSt has one heavy and one semi-heavy tail, i.e., one tail determined by a polynomial and the other by an exponential behaviour. The normal inverse Gaussian processLt is a Levy process where increments inLt are distributed according to the NIG distribution. Another appeal of the NIG distribution is that it is characterised by the first four moments(mean,variance, skewness and kurtosis). These are the moments we care about for inference in real life applications including risk management and derivative pricing.

In fitting stochastic volatility series, the Weibull distribution performed wonderfully well in both the electricity and crude oil datasets while the gamma distribution is recommended for natural gas volatility series. The gamma process can be expressed as a limiting case of the generalized inverse Gaussian(GIG) process with λ = −0.5 (similar to the NIG). The Weibull on the other hand is popular in the analysis of lifetime data.

Table 6.0.1: Performance summary of different models Recommended Models

Dataset Return Series Volatility Series Electricity

NIG (72%) Weibull GH (27%)

Crude Oil SSt (32%) Weibull NIG (28%)

Natural Gas SSt (74%) Gamma GH (26%)

Contrary to the assumption of “all things being equal” there are very high probability of higher or lower energy prices than previously expected over time. This suggests that compared to the normal distribution, the actual probability distribution of return and volatility series are fat-tailed, implying that the probability of large differences in prices of energy contracts is much higher than would be implied by time-invariant unconditional Gaussian distribution.

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