Table 3: Education levels EDUCATION LEVELS 2001
CENSUS 2007COMMUNITY
SURVEY 2008
GLOBAL INSIGHT
No schooling 27% 10.8% 26, 609
Completed Primary 8% 7.8% 28, 427
Matric / Grade 12 10% 8.8% 22, 814
Higher education 6% 6% 11, 453
Figure 7: Educational Level of Population: 2007
Source: Statistics South Africa Community Survey 2007
The above figure shows that the total population of illiterate people is higher in Mnquma than the province or nationally. The labour force is therefore relatively more unskilled and this represents a barrier for investment and a constraint on economic growth in terms of businesses being able to find skilled labour.
2.1 Situational Analysis per Cluster 1. Socio-Economic Development Cluster
Background and composition
Socio-Economic Development Cluster is a collection of activities relating to the local economic development tourism, SMME development, Manufacturing, Fishing, Agriculture, educational, social, welfare, health-related and community Safety needs. Within the municipality, the departments and/or activities that form part of the cluster include the following:
(1) Solid Waste and Environmental Management ; (2) Law enforcement (Traffic, Security & Peace Officers)
(3) Local Economic Development (Agriculture and Rural Development, Tourism and SMME, forestry and mining)
(4) Library Services;
Educational Level of
(5) Part of Estates Services (Halls and Local Amenities).
Externally the cluster includes the following sector departments:
(6) Welfare;
(7) Social Development;
(8) Health;
(9) South African Police Services;
(10) Home Affairs;
(11) Correctional Services,
(12) Department of Constitutional Development and Justice (13) Roads and Transport
(14) Sport, Recreation, Arts and Culture
(15) Department of Economic Development & Environmental Affairs (16) ECDC, NHSRC
(17) Commercial Banks and Organized Business
Mnquma Local Municipality consist of 3 main urban areas that contribute largely towards its total GDP of 1 457 948. Butterworth is the economic hub of this municipality and contributes 1 125 855 (77%) towards the municipality’s total GDP. On the other hand Centane and Ngqamakhwe contribute 171 718 (12%) and 160 375 (11%) respectively.
Economic Growth
Economic growth in Mnquma has been slower than the national and provincial averages, averaging just 2.5% over the last decade. Most economic growth has been government funded either through capital investment in construction or via social grants supporting wholesale and retail trade and financial and business services.
Table 4: Economic Growth by Sector: 1996 – 2007
Source: Development Bank Southern Africa analysis of Quantec Research statistics
The tertiary sectors of the economy, particularly wholesale and and community services added more value to the total GVA of the LM during 1996, 2001 and 2007.
The leading contributor in the region was the community (government) services sector, as it contributed on average 41% to the local minucipality’s total GVA over the three years under study.
Wholesale and retail trade was also a major role player, contributing 21,8% in 1996, 20,8% in 2001 and 18,5% in 2007.
Year Agricultur e, hunting,
forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water
supply
Construction Wholesale and retail trade
Transport, storage and communication
Financial, insurance, real estate and business
services
Community, social and
personal services
Total
1996-2001 4.6 -13.8 1.0 -1.6 4.3 1.7 4.1 2.8 0.8 1.5
2001-2007 -2.9 1.9 1.5 -2.4 9.6 3.8 3.6 7.3 2.3 3.4
1996-2007 0.4 -5.6 1.3 -2.0 7.1 2.8 3.8 5.2 1.6 2.5
In the secondary economic sectors, the manufacturing sector also played an important role by contributing 16,0% in 1996, 15,2% in 2001 and 15,5% in 2007. The least contributing sector in the LM was mining and quarrying, indicating that the mining is not a very active sector in the region.
Mining remains the least contributing sector as we are more into sand mining and decomposed dolorite (isabhunge) mining. This however needs to be regulated under the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA)(MPRDA)because it results into land degration.
Mnquma’s contribution to the DM’s economy was also slighly significant at 6,4% in 1996, 6,3% in 2001 and 5,9% in 2007. The following worrying trends should be noted:
• Mnquma’s share of the value of the District economy has fallen by 0.5% since 1996, indicating the Mnquma’s level of economic growth has been relatively slow
• The contribution of the manufacturing sector has fallen by 0.5% since 1996, indicating the lack of investment and business growth in this sector
• Mnquma is mainly reliant on government investment and grants for growth (which has only supported some growth in the wholeSAle and retail sectors, and needs to find ways to pursue additional sector growth opportunities in tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing.
Table 4: Value of Economic Output per Sector: 2001 Economic Sectors’ contribution
Description 2001
Agricultural related work 523
Mining 190
Manufacturing 1676
Electricity, gas, water 109
Construction 755
Wholesale, Retail 2668
Transport, Communications 615
Business Services 937
Community Services 9363
Private Household
Undetermined 266608
Total 283444
Source: Census 2001
Work on the Mnquma Master Plan is looking at the possible long term impacts of Climate Change. This analysis shows that the main long term impacts on Mnquma could include the following:
• 10% less mean annual precipitation, i.e. less total rainfall
• Wetter summers with more extreme flooding events, and drier winters
• Very hot days (>40 degrees) will increase by 50% and total average temperatures will increase by 1-1.5%
• 25% decrease in storm flows
• 10% increase in demand for irrigation water
• Sediment yield decreases by 20%.
Generally, climate change is resulting in more extreme weather patterns, i.e. more severe flooding and more severe hot weather in summer. The increase in average temperature will also impact on the agriculture sector in terms of what kinds of crops are feasible under increasing temperature scenarios. There is also a real threat in terms of drought and water security.
Figure 8: Change in Total Rainfall per Month
Source: Silimela Development Services analysis of Water Research Commission:
2005 Climate Change and Water Resources in South Africa Table 1: Average Annual Rainfall
Average annual rainfall (mm) Total rainfall (mm)
1996 778.34
1997 876.71
1998 820.57
1999 144.84
2000 894.56
2001 869.64
2002 872.57
2003 641.28
2004 784.20
2005 665.91
Source: Global Insights (2009)