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The residuals between the original data and the reconstruction from the PCA are used to identify transient events, as they represent the difference between the expected and observed data.

4.3.1 Gamma Ray Bursts

The detection of GRBs by satellites is published online athttp://grblog.org. Tables of localised (their position has been recorded) GRBs from 2003 to 2009 by Stephen Holland are available at http://lheawww.gsfc.nasa.gov/~sholland/grb/. The majority of events presented here were identified by NASA’s Swift Gamma Ray Burst Mission. Swift was launched into low earth orbit in 2004, at an altitude of 600 km. Experiments onboard are the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT), X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the UV/Optical Telescope (UVOT). BAT provides the initial detection of a GRB, while XRT and UVOT do the follow-up observations (images and spectra) of the afterglows (Gehrels et al., 2004).

A list of the detections of GRBs was compiled for 2007, 2008 and the first part of 2009. This consisted of the date, time and location, given in right ascension and declination, of the detected bursts. These were used to calculate the sub-burst point of each GRB. This is the point on the

Figure 4.17: Eigenvalues of the leading principal components for NSY.

surface of the Earth, directly below the GRB. The position of the day/night terminator was also calculated at the time of the burst. Maps of events detected were created for the three years.

These are shown in Figures 4.20, 4.21 and 4.22.

The increase in the detected number of GRBs between 2007 and 2008 is due to the launch of NASA’s Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope in June 2008. The distribution of events is random, as expected. GRBs occurring outside the hemisphere of the transmitter-receiver paths were not expected to produce an effect in the propagation conditions of the signal, and were not considered in the initial analysis. Plots of the remaining GRBs with the signal paths and the location of the day/night terminator were created, to locate bursts occurring at nighttime over the paths.

Residuals from the PCA reconstruction were then examined for an effect of the GRBs.

The first GRB event presented here is one that has already been mentioned. GRB 080319B, occurred at 06:12:47 UT at RA 14:31:40.98 and Dec +361808.80′′ (Cummings et al., 2008). This translates to a sub-burst point at 36.3024N and 307.5489E. The spatial relationship between the sub-burst point and the signal paths is shown in Figure 4.23. The sub-burst point is over 5700 km from the receiver in Tihany and is in darkness. However, the signals paths are in daylight, making the detection of any effect unlikely, despite the large fluence of this GRB.

Three other events occurred on the same day, with the fourth occurring at 17:05:09 UT at RA 06:37:53.60 and Dec +235634.20′′ (Ukwatta et al., 2008). GRB 080319D had a duration of 24 s and a fluence of 3.2×10−10 Jm−2. The sub-burst point for GRB 080319D was at 23.9427N and 25.5717E. Figure 4.24 shows the configuration of the signal paths in relation to the sub-burst point, which is 2644 km from the receiver. Both the GRB and the NSY–Tihany path are in darkness, while the GBZ–Tihany path is mostly in daylight.

Figure 4.25 shows a plot of the signal amplitude from GBZ received on 19 March 2008. Once again the red line is the original data, while the blue and dashed lines are from the PCA re- construction and Fourier analysis, respectively. There are no appreciable deviations in the signal

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Figure 4.18: Reconstruction of the standardised data from GBZ on 26 December 2007. Red is the original data, blue the reconstruction from PCA and the dashed line is from a Fourier analysis.

The bottom panel shows the residuals between the original data and the PCA reconstruction.

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Figure 4.19: Reconstructed data from NSY on 23 April 2009. Format is the same as Figure 4.18.

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Figure 4.20: Map of sub-burst points for events detected in 2007.

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GRB080120

Figure 4.21: Map of sub-burst points for events detected in 2008.

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GRB090117A GRB090113

GRB090112B

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GRB090111 GRB090109

GRB090108B GRB090108A GRB090107B

GRB090107A GRB090102

Figure 4.22: Map of sub-burst points for events detected in the first half of 2009.

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Figure 4.23: Map of GRB 080319B. The red dot indicates the sub-burst point of the GRB, while the green and blue dots indicate the locations of the transmitters and receiver. The night side of the Earth is shaded darker than the day side.

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Figure 4.24: Map of GRB 080319D. The format is the same as Figure 4.23.

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Figure 4.25: Signal strength variation for GBZ on 19 March 2008. The dashed lines on the residual plot indicate the time of GRBs.

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Figure 4.26: Map of GRB 090113.

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Figure 4.27: Signal strength variation for NSY on 13 January 2009. The dashed line on the residual plot indicates the time of the GRB.

strength seen around the times of the GRBs.

The bottom panel of Figure 4.25 shows the residuals between the original data and the PCA reconstruction. The red vertical lines indicate the times of the GRBs detected on that day.

The second and fourth lines correspond to GRB 080319B and GRB 080319D. There are small perturbations in the residuals close to these times. However, it is difficult to ascertain if these are chance alignments of normal, random fluctuations or if they were caused by the GRBs. The distance between GRB 080319B and the signal path, along with the fact that the path is in daylight, suggests that this is a chance alignment.

In the case of GRB 080319D, the perturbation begins before the onset of the burst, therefore removing the burst as the cause of the perturbation. Thus, neither a strong, relatively distant burst, nor a closer, weaker burst have an effect on the day lit path.

The 20 s burst that occurred on 13 January 2009 at 18:40:39, denoted GRB 090113, had a sub-burst point located at 33.4285N and 358.5194E. This point is 2214 km from the receiver.

GRB 090113 had a fluence of 7.6×10−10Jm−2 (Tueller et al., 2009). Figure 4.26 indicates an ideal configuration of the system, with the signal paths and the sub-burst point in darkness.

Examination of the NSY signal amplitude received at Tihany, plotted in Figure 4.27, shows a possible perturbation, with sharp fluctuations at the time of the burst. The signal is, however, unusually perturbed on this particular day, thus it is once again difficult to ascertain the cause of the perturbation. There is no data available for this day from GBZ.

The lack of detected events in the subionospheric propagation data lead to a redefining of search parameters. The next step was to search all the GBZ and NSY data for any perturbation occurring at the same time as a GRB. This search turned up no positive results. The detection of a GRB appears to require a serendipitous occurrence of factors. Not only is the burst required to have a high enough fluence (the burst detected by Fishman and Inan (1988) had a fluence of 2×106 Jm2), but the sub-burst point should be relatively close to the signal paths and occurring over a nighttime ionosphere. A confluence of these factors did not occur within the data set examined.

4.3.2 Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes

Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes (TGFs) are detected by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). This satellite was launched into a circular orbit at an altitude of 600 km in early 2002. Although not its primary mission, detection of TGFs by the instruments on this satellite have been recorded since 2002. The RHESSI TGF catalog is available at http:

//scipp.ucsc.edu/~dsmith/tgflib_public/and is discussed by Grefenstette et al. (2009).

The number of TGFs detected between 26 May 2007 and 14 June 2009 was 145, with only 78 of these occurring within the same hemisphere as the signal paths. The residuals of the PCA reconstructions for both the NSY and GBZ data sets were examined for possible perturbations caused by these TGFs. Sixteen of these occurred at the same time as a perturbation in the residuals. The sub-satellite points are plotted in Figure 4.28. Grefenstette et al. (2009) calculate that the TGF occurs at least 255 km from the sub-satellite point. Although each TGF is in the same hemisphere as the signal paths under examination, they are all a considerable distance away, with some grouped quite tightly together over the northern regions of South America. As the attenuation for γ-rays in the atmosphere is high, the ionospheric effect of a TGF would be localised to the ionosphere above the event and would not travel over the horizon.

As no TGF occurred simultaneously with a perturbation on both transmitter signals, the top three energetic flashes are presented.

Figures 4.29 to 4.31 show the amplitude of the VLF transmitter signal, the residuals from the PCA reconstruction and the energy flux of the TGF. Each flash has a duration in the order of 50µs and the energies recorded range from 4500 16000 keV. There is no correlation between the

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Figure 4.28: Map of sub-satellite points for TGF detections.

size of the perturbation in the residuals plot and the energy of the TGF, with the more energetic TGFs not necessarily creating a larger perturbation. Some of the largest perturbations occur with lower energy flashes.

It is therefore necessary to conclude that the perturbations seen in the residual data are not caused by the occurrence of TGFs and rather some random fluctuations of the nighttime ionosphere.

4.3.3 Solar Flares

Solar flare data is recorded by the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellites (GOES), which were first launched in 1975. Currently, GOES-10 and GOES-12 are operating in geo- stationary orbits, at altitudes of ∼35800 km. The Space Environment Monitor is an experi- ment consisting of a magnetometer, X-ray sensor, high energy proton and alpha particle monitor and an energetic particle sensor. GOES-12 also sports a Solar X-ray Imager. A catalog of X- ray solar flares detected by the GOES satellites was used in this analysis and is available from ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/XRAY_FLARES/.

The times of solar flares for 2007, 2008 and the beginning of 2009 were compared with the amplitude and residual plots of the VLF data from GBZ and NSY. Particular attention was paid to flares occurring during the local daytime of the signal paths, due to the expectation that only the sunlit portion of the ionosphere would be affected, and flares classified greater than C1.0.

The most remarkable signature detected in both the VLF data and residuals caused by a solar flare is shown in Figure 4.32. This C4.5 event began at 09:39 UT on 13 December 2007, ending half an hour later, with the peak occurring at 10:03 UT. The total integrated flux for this flare was 3.3×10−3 Jm−2. The X-ray flux is shown in Figure 4.33. The perturbation in the GBZ data begins at the onset of the second and bigger peak in the flare. After the flare, the signal strength returns to its normal daytime level. Although this was detected in the raw data, the event signature was much more obvious in the residuals.

There were 20 other flares that occurred on this day, with classes ranging from B1.6 to C4.5.

Only flares with an integrated flux greater than 2×104Jm2 are indicated in Figure 4.32. This

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Figure 4.29: TGF occurring on 27 July 2007.

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Figure 4.30: TGF occurring on 20 April 2008.

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Figure 4.31: TGF occurring on 14 August 2008.

limitation was derived empirically, as only flares with larger flux are seen to cause a perturbation in the residual data.

Of the ten solar flares indicated by the red, vertical dashed lines in Figure 4.32, four (including the C4.5 flare already mentioned) show possible perturbations in the residuals. The first is a B7.8 flare, with integrated flux 2.2×10−4 Jm−2. The flare lasted 7 min, peaking at 01:04 UT.

The perturbation occurs when the GBZ–Tihany path is in darkness and thus may be a chance alignment. However, the sharp drop in the signal amplitude occurs concurrently with the flare onset, while the end of the flare occurs at the of bottom of the dip, making a chance alignment unlikely.

The next possible flare perturbation has a peak flux occurring at the peak of a bump in the residuals at 14:06 UT. This was a 13 min C1.0 flare, beginning at 13:59 UT, and had an integrated flux of 5.4×10−4 Jm−2. The perturbation is small, but clear in the residuals.

The last event on 13 December 2007 was a C1.7 flare, which lasted 27 min and had a total integrated flux of 1.7×10−3 Jm−2. The dashed line at 22:00 UT indicates the time of the peak flux, which occurred 8 min after the onset of the flare. The perturbation is seen in the amplitude of GBZ, as well as the residuals, as a small spike at the beginning of the flare and then a sudden decrease at the time of the peak flux. As with the B7.8 flare, the timing is precise enough to suggest that this perturbation is caused by the flare, despite the signal path being in darkness and hence the flare occurring on the other side of the Earth.

There were many solar flare signatures detected in the residuals from the PCA reconstruction of GBZ, all of which had an integrated flux greater than 2×10−4 Jm−2, as mentioned above.

However, not all flares which exceed this limit create a disturbance in the data. On 18 December 2007, there were 23 solar flares, with only 12 having an integrated flux greater than 2×10−4 Jm−2. Of these, 5 are responsible for detectable perturbations in the residuals (see Figure 4.34). These were classed as B2.4, C2.1, B6.3, B8.4, C1.6 with peak fluxes occurring at 1:34, 13:20, 14:34, 15:24, 19:15 UT, respectively.

A number of solar flares also created perturbations in the PCA reconstruction of the NSY data. Examples of these are shown in Figures 4.35 and 4.36, which were flares recorded on 2 and 3 November 2008. The empirically derived total integrated flux limitation on the creation of a perturbation in the residuals does not hold for NSY, in fact appearing to be much lower. In Figure 4.35, the first flare with peak time indicated at 13:28 UT, is a B2.7 flare with total integrated flux of 1.7×104 Jm2. The perturbation seen in the residuals is a small dip, with the start and end times of the flare corresponding to the start and end times of the dip.

The next flare with the peak flux occurring at 14:40 UT is classed as B1.5. The total integrated flux was 4.5×105 Jm2 and the residuals show no effect. The 5 min long B7.2, 1.3×104 Jm2 event peaking at 15:05 UT does have a definite signature in the residuals, with a sharp drop at the time of the flare.

The last flare recorded on 2 November was also 5 min long. This had a peak at 20:15 UT and was classed as a B5.7 event. There is a clear concurrent drop in the residuals at this time. The total integrated flux was 7.5×10−5 Jm−2, which is the smallest flux with a detected effect. Thus, this is adopted as the flux limit for NSY.

The flares occurring on 3 November 2008 corroborate this limitation. The first flare indicated is a B2.9 event, had a total integrated flux of 5.2×10−5 Jm−2 and is not seen in the residuals.

The second flare has a very clear signature, also seen in the raw data. This C1.6 class event had a duration of 7 min, with the 11:19 UT peak occurring in the middle of this interval. The total integrated flux was 3.5×10−4Jm−2.

The B2.4 event is also detected in the residuals, even though it occurred at local nighttime.

The time of the peak flux of this 18 min long flare is indicated on Figure 4.36 as usual. The total flux is 1.9×10−4 Jm−2, supporting the detection limit.

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