The residuals between the original data and the reconstruction from the PCA are used to identify transient events, as they represent the difference between the expected and observed data.
4.3.1 Gamma Ray Bursts
The detection of GRBs by satellites is published online athttp://grblog.org. Tables of localised (their position has been recorded) GRBs from 2003 to 2009 by Stephen Holland are available at http://lheawww.gsfc.nasa.gov/~sholland/grb/. The majority of events presented here were identified by NASA’s Swift Gamma Ray Burst Mission. Swift was launched into low earth orbit in 2004, at an altitude of 600 km. Experiments onboard are the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT), X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the UV/Optical Telescope (UVOT). BAT provides the initial detection of a GRB, while XRT and UVOT do the follow-up observations (images and spectra) of the afterglows (Gehrels et al., 2004).
A list of the detections of GRBs was compiled for 2007, 2008 and the first part of 2009. This consisted of the date, time and location, given in right ascension and declination, of the detected bursts. These were used to calculate the sub-burst point of each GRB. This is the point on the
Figure 4.17: Eigenvalues of the leading principal components for NSY.
surface of the Earth, directly below the GRB. The position of the day/night terminator was also calculated at the time of the burst. Maps of events detected were created for the three years.
These are shown in Figures 4.20, 4.21 and 4.22.
The increase in the detected number of GRBs between 2007 and 2008 is due to the launch of NASA’s Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope in June 2008. The distribution of events is random, as expected. GRBs occurring outside the hemisphere of the transmitter-receiver paths were not expected to produce an effect in the propagation conditions of the signal, and were not considered in the initial analysis. Plots of the remaining GRBs with the signal paths and the location of the day/night terminator were created, to locate bursts occurring at nighttime over the paths.
Residuals from the PCA reconstruction were then examined for an effect of the GRBs.
The first GRB event presented here is one that has already been mentioned. GRB 080319B, occurred at 06:12:47 UT at RA 14:31:40.98 and Dec +36◦18′08.80′′ (Cummings et al., 2008). This translates to a sub-burst point at 36.3024◦N and 307.5489◦E. The spatial relationship between the sub-burst point and the signal paths is shown in Figure 4.23. The sub-burst point is over 5700 km from the receiver in Tihany and is in darkness. However, the signals paths are in daylight, making the detection of any effect unlikely, despite the large fluence of this GRB.
Three other events occurred on the same day, with the fourth occurring at 17:05:09 UT at RA 06:37:53.60 and Dec +23◦56′34.20′′ (Ukwatta et al., 2008). GRB 080319D had a duration of 24 s and a fluence of 3.2×10−10 Jm−2. The sub-burst point for GRB 080319D was at 23.9427◦N and 25.5717◦E. Figure 4.24 shows the configuration of the signal paths in relation to the sub-burst point, which is 2644 km from the receiver. Both the GRB and the NSY–Tihany path are in darkness, while the GBZ–Tihany path is mostly in daylight.
Figure 4.25 shows a plot of the signal amplitude from GBZ received on 19 March 2008. Once again the red line is the original data, while the blue and dashed lines are from the PCA re- construction and Fourier analysis, respectively. There are no appreciable deviations in the signal
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Figure 4.18: Reconstruction of the standardised data from GBZ on 26 December 2007. Red is the original data, blue the reconstruction from PCA and the dashed line is from a Fourier analysis.
The bottom panel shows the residuals between the original data and the PCA reconstruction.
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Figure 4.19: Reconstructed data from NSY on 23 April 2009. Format is the same as Figure 4.18.
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GRB071031 GRB071028B
GRB071028A GRB071025
GRB071021 GRB071020
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GRB070729 GRB070724B
GRB070724A GRB070721B
GRB070721A
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GRB070707
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GRB070626 GRB070621
GRB070616
GRB070615 GRB070612B
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GRB070611 GRB070531
GRB070529
GRB070521
GRB070520B
GRB070520A
GRB070518
GRB070517
GRB070512
GRB070509 GRB070508
GRB070506
GRB070429B GRB070429A GRB070427
GRB070420 GRB070419B
GRB070419A GRB070412
GRB070411
GRB070406 GRB070402
GRB070330 GRB070328
GRB070326
GRB070318 GRB070311
GRB070309
GRB070306
GRB070227
GRB070224 GRB070223
GRB070220 GRB070219
GRB070209
GRB070208
GRB070201
GRB070129
GRB070126 GRB070125
GRB070124
GRB070110 GRB070107
GRB07010
Figure 4.20: Map of sub-burst points for events detected in 2007.
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GRB081203A
GRB081130B GRB081130A
GRB081129
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GRB081127 GRB081126
GRB081125 GRB081124
GRB081122B GRB081122A
GRB081121 GRB081120
GRB081119
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GRB081118 GRB081113
GRB081110
GRB081109B GRB081109A
GRB081107
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GRB081104
GRB081102B GRB081102A
GRB081101B GRB081101A
GRB081029
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GRB081025
GRB081024C GRB081024B
GRB081024A
GRB081022
GRB081021 GRB081017
GRB081016B
GRB081016A
GRB081012 GRB081011
GRB081009
GRB081008 GRB081007
GRB081006B GRB081006A
GRB081003C
GRB081003B GRB081003A
GRB081001
GRB080928 GRB080927
GRB080925
GRB080922 GRB080920
GRB080919
GRB080916C GRB080916B
GRB080916A
GRB080915B
GRB080915A
GRB080913B
GRB080913A GRB080912
GRB080906B
GRB080906 GRB080905C
GRB080905B
GRB080905A
XRF080904
GRB080903
GRB080830
GRB080828 GRB080825C
GRB080825B
GRB080824
GRB080823
GRB080822B
GRB080818B
GRB080818A GRB080817B
GRB080817A GRB080816B
GRB080816A
GRB080812 GRB080810
GRB080805
GRB080804
GRB080802 GRB080727C
GRB080727B
GRB080727A GRB080726
GRB080725
GRB080723B GRB080723A
GRB080721
GRB080714 GRB080710
GRB080707
GRB080703
GRB080702B GRB080702A
GRB080701B
GRB080701A
GRB080625
GRB080623 GRB080613B
GRB080613A GRB080607
GRB080605 GRB080604
GRB080603B GRB080603A
GRB080602B
GRB080602 GRB080524
GRB080523 XRF080520
GRB080517
GRB080516
XRF080515
GRB080514B GRB080513
GRB080507
GRB080506
GRB080503
GRB080430 GRB080426
GRB080414 GRB080413B
GRB080413A
GRB080411 GRB080409
GRB080408
GRB080405
XRF080330
GRB080328
GRB080325 GRB080320
GRB080319D GRB080319C
GRB080319B GRB080319A
GRB080315
GRB080310
GRB080307
GRB080303 GRB080229B
GRB080229A
GRB080218B GRB080218A
GRB080212
GRB080211
GRB080210
GRB080207 GRB080205
GRB080204 GRB080130 GRB080129
GRB080123 GRB080122 GRB080121
GRB080120
Figure 4.21: Map of sub-burst points for events detected in 2008.
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GRB090602 GRB090531B
GRB090531A GRB090530B GRB090530A
GRB090529C
GRB090529B
GRB090529A GRB090528B
GRB090528A
GRB090524 GRB090522
GRB090520D GRB090520C
GRB090520B
GRB090520A
GRB090519B GRB090519A
GRB090518B GRB090518A
GRB090516C
GRB090516B
GRB090516A GRB090515
GRB090514
GRB090513B
GRB090513A GRB090511
GRB090510B
GRB090510A GRB090509
GRB090502 GRB090429D
GRB090429C
GRB090429B
GRB090429A GRB090428B
GRB090428A
GRB090427C
GRB090427B GRB090427A
GRB090426C
GRB090426B GRB090426A GRB090425
GRB090424 GRB090423
GRB090422
GRB090419 GRB090418C GRB090418B
GRB090418A
GRB090417B
GRB090417A
GRB090412 GRB090411B
GRB090411A GRB090410
GRB090409 GRB090408B
GRB090407A
GRB090405 GRB090404 GRB090403
GRB090401B GRB090401A
GRB090331 GRB090330
GRB090328B GRB090328B
GRB090327 GRB090326
GRB090324 GRB090323
GRB090320C
GRB090320B
GRB090320A GRB090319
GRB090315 GRB090313
GRB090310
GRB090309B
GRB090309A
GRB090308B
GRB090308A GRB090307B
GRB090307A GRB090306C
GRB090306B
GRB090305C GRB090305B
GRB090305A
GRB090304 GRB090303
GRB090301B GRB090301A GRB090228B
GRB090228A
GRB090227B
GRB090227A GRB090222
GRB090219
GRB090217
GRB090213 GRB090207
GRB090206
GRB090205 GRB090202
GRB090201 GRB090131
GRB090129
GRB090126C GRB090126A
GRB090123 GRB090118
GRB090117C GRB090117B
GRB090117A GRB090113
GRB090112B
GRB090112A
GRB090111 GRB090109
GRB090108B GRB090108A GRB090107B
GRB090107A GRB090102
Figure 4.22: Map of sub-burst points for events detected in the first half of 2009.
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Figure 4.23: Map of GRB 080319B. The red dot indicates the sub-burst point of the GRB, while the green and blue dots indicate the locations of the transmitters and receiver. The night side of the Earth is shaded darker than the day side.
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Figure 4.24: Map of GRB 080319D. The format is the same as Figure 4.23.
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Figure 4.25: Signal strength variation for GBZ on 19 March 2008. The dashed lines on the residual plot indicate the time of GRBs.
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Figure 4.26: Map of GRB 090113.
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Figure 4.27: Signal strength variation for NSY on 13 January 2009. The dashed line on the residual plot indicates the time of the GRB.
strength seen around the times of the GRBs.
The bottom panel of Figure 4.25 shows the residuals between the original data and the PCA reconstruction. The red vertical lines indicate the times of the GRBs detected on that day.
The second and fourth lines correspond to GRB 080319B and GRB 080319D. There are small perturbations in the residuals close to these times. However, it is difficult to ascertain if these are chance alignments of normal, random fluctuations or if they were caused by the GRBs. The distance between GRB 080319B and the signal path, along with the fact that the path is in daylight, suggests that this is a chance alignment.
In the case of GRB 080319D, the perturbation begins before the onset of the burst, therefore removing the burst as the cause of the perturbation. Thus, neither a strong, relatively distant burst, nor a closer, weaker burst have an effect on the day lit path.
The 20 s burst that occurred on 13 January 2009 at 18:40:39, denoted GRB 090113, had a sub-burst point located at 33.4285◦N and 358.5194◦E. This point is 2214 km from the receiver.
GRB 090113 had a fluence of 7.6×10−10Jm−2 (Tueller et al., 2009). Figure 4.26 indicates an ideal configuration of the system, with the signal paths and the sub-burst point in darkness.
Examination of the NSY signal amplitude received at Tihany, plotted in Figure 4.27, shows a possible perturbation, with sharp fluctuations at the time of the burst. The signal is, however, unusually perturbed on this particular day, thus it is once again difficult to ascertain the cause of the perturbation. There is no data available for this day from GBZ.
The lack of detected events in the subionospheric propagation data lead to a redefining of search parameters. The next step was to search all the GBZ and NSY data for any perturbation occurring at the same time as a GRB. This search turned up no positive results. The detection of a GRB appears to require a serendipitous occurrence of factors. Not only is the burst required to have a high enough fluence (the burst detected by Fishman and Inan (1988) had a fluence of 2×10−6 Jm−2), but the sub-burst point should be relatively close to the signal paths and occurring over a nighttime ionosphere. A confluence of these factors did not occur within the data set examined.
4.3.2 Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes
Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes (TGFs) are detected by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). This satellite was launched into a circular orbit at an altitude of 600 km in early 2002. Although not its primary mission, detection of TGFs by the instruments on this satellite have been recorded since 2002. The RHESSI TGF catalog is available at http:
//scipp.ucsc.edu/~dsmith/tgflib_public/and is discussed by Grefenstette et al. (2009).
The number of TGFs detected between 26 May 2007 and 14 June 2009 was 145, with only 78 of these occurring within the same hemisphere as the signal paths. The residuals of the PCA reconstructions for both the NSY and GBZ data sets were examined for possible perturbations caused by these TGFs. Sixteen of these occurred at the same time as a perturbation in the residuals. The sub-satellite points are plotted in Figure 4.28. Grefenstette et al. (2009) calculate that the TGF occurs at least 255 km from the sub-satellite point. Although each TGF is in the same hemisphere as the signal paths under examination, they are all a considerable distance away, with some grouped quite tightly together over the northern regions of South America. As the attenuation for γ-rays in the atmosphere is high, the ionospheric effect of a TGF would be localised to the ionosphere above the event and would not travel over the horizon.
As no TGF occurred simultaneously with a perturbation on both transmitter signals, the top three energetic flashes are presented.
Figures 4.29 to 4.31 show the amplitude of the VLF transmitter signal, the residuals from the PCA reconstruction and the energy flux of the TGF. Each flash has a duration in the order of 50µs and the energies recorded range from 4500 16000 keV. There is no correlation between the
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Figure 4.28: Map of sub-satellite points for TGF detections.
size of the perturbation in the residuals plot and the energy of the TGF, with the more energetic TGFs not necessarily creating a larger perturbation. Some of the largest perturbations occur with lower energy flashes.
It is therefore necessary to conclude that the perturbations seen in the residual data are not caused by the occurrence of TGFs and rather some random fluctuations of the nighttime ionosphere.
4.3.3 Solar Flares
Solar flare data is recorded by the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellites (GOES), which were first launched in 1975. Currently, GOES-10 and GOES-12 are operating in geo- stationary orbits, at altitudes of ∼35800 km. The Space Environment Monitor is an experi- ment consisting of a magnetometer, X-ray sensor, high energy proton and alpha particle monitor and an energetic particle sensor. GOES-12 also sports a Solar X-ray Imager. A catalog of X- ray solar flares detected by the GOES satellites was used in this analysis and is available from ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_FLARES/XRAY_FLARES/.
The times of solar flares for 2007, 2008 and the beginning of 2009 were compared with the amplitude and residual plots of the VLF data from GBZ and NSY. Particular attention was paid to flares occurring during the local daytime of the signal paths, due to the expectation that only the sunlit portion of the ionosphere would be affected, and flares classified greater than C1.0.
The most remarkable signature detected in both the VLF data and residuals caused by a solar flare is shown in Figure 4.32. This C4.5 event began at 09:39 UT on 13 December 2007, ending half an hour later, with the peak occurring at 10:03 UT. The total integrated flux for this flare was 3.3×10−3 Jm−2. The X-ray flux is shown in Figure 4.33. The perturbation in the GBZ data begins at the onset of the second and bigger peak in the flare. After the flare, the signal strength returns to its normal daytime level. Although this was detected in the raw data, the event signature was much more obvious in the residuals.
There were 20 other flares that occurred on this day, with classes ranging from B1.6 to C4.5.
Only flares with an integrated flux greater than 2×10−4Jm−2 are indicated in Figure 4.32. This
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Figure 4.29: TGF occurring on 27 July 2007.
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Figure 4.30: TGF occurring on 20 April 2008.
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Figure 4.31: TGF occurring on 14 August 2008.
limitation was derived empirically, as only flares with larger flux are seen to cause a perturbation in the residual data.
Of the ten solar flares indicated by the red, vertical dashed lines in Figure 4.32, four (including the C4.5 flare already mentioned) show possible perturbations in the residuals. The first is a B7.8 flare, with integrated flux 2.2×10−4 Jm−2. The flare lasted 7 min, peaking at 01:04 UT.
The perturbation occurs when the GBZ–Tihany path is in darkness and thus may be a chance alignment. However, the sharp drop in the signal amplitude occurs concurrently with the flare onset, while the end of the flare occurs at the of bottom of the dip, making a chance alignment unlikely.
The next possible flare perturbation has a peak flux occurring at the peak of a bump in the residuals at 14:06 UT. This was a 13 min C1.0 flare, beginning at 13:59 UT, and had an integrated flux of 5.4×10−4 Jm−2. The perturbation is small, but clear in the residuals.
The last event on 13 December 2007 was a C1.7 flare, which lasted 27 min and had a total integrated flux of 1.7×10−3 Jm−2. The dashed line at 22:00 UT indicates the time of the peak flux, which occurred 8 min after the onset of the flare. The perturbation is seen in the amplitude of GBZ, as well as the residuals, as a small spike at the beginning of the flare and then a sudden decrease at the time of the peak flux. As with the B7.8 flare, the timing is precise enough to suggest that this perturbation is caused by the flare, despite the signal path being in darkness and hence the flare occurring on the other side of the Earth.
There were many solar flare signatures detected in the residuals from the PCA reconstruction of GBZ, all of which had an integrated flux greater than 2×10−4 Jm−2, as mentioned above.
However, not all flares which exceed this limit create a disturbance in the data. On 18 December 2007, there were 23 solar flares, with only 12 having an integrated flux greater than 2×10−4 Jm−2. Of these, 5 are responsible for detectable perturbations in the residuals (see Figure 4.34). These were classed as B2.4, C2.1, B6.3, B8.4, C1.6 with peak fluxes occurring at 1:34, 13:20, 14:34, 15:24, 19:15 UT, respectively.
A number of solar flares also created perturbations in the PCA reconstruction of the NSY data. Examples of these are shown in Figures 4.35 and 4.36, which were flares recorded on 2 and 3 November 2008. The empirically derived total integrated flux limitation on the creation of a perturbation in the residuals does not hold for NSY, in fact appearing to be much lower. In Figure 4.35, the first flare with peak time indicated at 13:28 UT, is a B2.7 flare with total integrated flux of 1.7×10−4 Jm−2. The perturbation seen in the residuals is a small dip, with the start and end times of the flare corresponding to the start and end times of the dip.
The next flare with the peak flux occurring at 14:40 UT is classed as B1.5. The total integrated flux was 4.5×10−5 Jm−2 and the residuals show no effect. The 5 min long B7.2, 1.3×10−4 Jm−2 event peaking at 15:05 UT does have a definite signature in the residuals, with a sharp drop at the time of the flare.
The last flare recorded on 2 November was also 5 min long. This had a peak at 20:15 UT and was classed as a B5.7 event. There is a clear concurrent drop in the residuals at this time. The total integrated flux was 7.5×10−5 Jm−2, which is the smallest flux with a detected effect. Thus, this is adopted as the flux limit for NSY.
The flares occurring on 3 November 2008 corroborate this limitation. The first flare indicated is a B2.9 event, had a total integrated flux of 5.2×10−5 Jm−2 and is not seen in the residuals.
The second flare has a very clear signature, also seen in the raw data. This C1.6 class event had a duration of 7 min, with the 11:19 UT peak occurring in the middle of this interval. The total integrated flux was 3.5×10−4Jm−2.
The B2.4 event is also detected in the residuals, even though it occurred at local nighttime.
The time of the peak flux of this 18 min long flare is indicated on Figure 4.36 as usual. The total flux is 1.9×10−4 Jm−2, supporting the detection limit.