III 0
Plate 5-10: Build up of sand, deposited during high tide
5.7. Modelling the relationship between flow and mouth state
5.7.1. Flow duration curves
FDCs provide a simple and informative manner of presenting the distribution of river flows from drought to flood conditions. The FDCs are usually presented as log-normal plots of discharge versus percentage of time that the discharge is either equalled or exceeded. This frequency distribution of flows does not account for the order in which the flows occur.
I-month annual and I-day annual flow duration curves can be calculated from monthly or daily data sets, respectively over a recorded period or data sets can be grouped either seasonally or into similar monlhs. (Smakhtin,2000).
Monthly annual FDCs were plotted for both the present and natural or reference states at Mhlanga and Mdloti Estuaries. Comparing the FDCs for the reference and present state, the effects of human influences, such as discharge of treated effluent and the construction of Hazelmere Dam, are visible. The addition of treated effluent into the stream-flow entering Mhlanga Estuary causes an increase in the flow throughout the data, as seen in figure 5-37. An additional state was included in the FDC for Mhlanga Estuary, namely the future state.
Provision was made for the future as it is foreseen that the WWTWs discharging into the Ohlanga River are likely to increase the amount of discharge form 20MVday to 35MVday, for which permits have been granted, within the next 4 years (CSIR, 2003).
Flow Duration Curve for Mhlanga Estuary
90% 100%
80%
40% 50% 60% 70%
% Time EJ(ceeded 30%
20%
10%
0.1- ! - _ - - - r_ _--,-_ _, - _ - - - r_ _--,-_ _, - _ - - - r_ _- , -_ _,..-_----i
0%
1-
A"esent state - Natural state - Future state1
Figure 5-37: A I-month annual flow duration curve of both the natural state and the present day conditions at Mhlanga estuary.
Although the elevation in flow is fairly uniform throughout the range, the effect on the low flows is more dramatic than on the higher flows. That is under flood conditions the additional treated effluent entering the system has negligible effect, whilst under low flow conditions the additional flow can be responsible for driving the system as witnessed at MWanga Estuary during 2003, when there was little rainfall yet the estuary continued to breach at fairly regular intervals.
At Mdloti Estuary the effect of the abstraction and discharge of treated effluent is merely to shift the flow rates down or up, however the construction of the dam alters the natural pattern of stream-flow. It is expected that Hazelmere Dam will attenuate the flood flows, the effects of which can be seen in figure 5-38.
Flow Duration Curve for Mdloti Estuary
--
100
?E 10
;;;- E
g
~0
u:
0.1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
%Time Exceeded
1-
R"esentday - Natural stateI
Figure 5-38: A I-month annual flow duration curve of both the natural state and the present day conditions at Mdloti Estuary.
The data presented in figure 5-38 is problematic, with the present state data showing higher flows than the reference state. An overall decrease in the flows should be evident for the present state as the release from Hazelmere Dam should be less than the stream-flow for the U30A catchment and the abstractions from the Mdloti River downstream of the Hazelmere dam exceed the discharges into the river. Possible reasons for the inaccuracies could be that the simulated stream-flow dataisunderestimated or the Hazelmere Dam data overestimated. Other sources of error could include underestimation of the abstractions, as there was no gauged data available.
5.7.2. The model
Ithas been established that a temporary open estuary can be classified into three flow regimes.
1. The open regime which occurs under high flow conditions where the residence time of the inflow is less than the time required for closure to occur, thereby forcing the mouth to remain open.
2. The closed regime which occurs under low flow conditions, where the inflow is less than the maximum seepage losses, the estuary remains closed.
3. Inbetween the open regime and the closed regime is the open/closed regime which is dependant on both flow and residence time. For example high flows (significantly greater than seepage losses) may only be sustained long enough to increase the water level and not result in breaching, while relatively low flows (slightly greater than the maximum seepage loss), occurring when the estuary water level is high, can cause breaching in a short period of time. Note this open/closed regime is not the same as the partly open state but is better defined as intermittently open/closed.
Schematic representations of the conceptual model for the relationship between flow and mouth state developed for Mhlanga and Mdloti Estuaries are given in figures 5-39 and 5-40 respectively. These figures were produced using the data tabulated in table 5-7.
Table 5-7: Relevant characteristics of Mhlanga and Mdloti Estuaries.
Mhlanga Mdloti
Qc (m3/s) 0.27 0.55
Storage=S (m.!) 800000 970000
TRat Qc = T cr=S/Qc (days) ±34 20
Time to closure = T cI (days) ±5 ±5
TcrITcI 7 4
Mouth state vs Q/Qc
100 - - -
90
- - - j
~ 80
~~ 70
.s
60 .1'!l- - - i
en 50
..l: 40 - - - i
'5 30 ---j
0
-J
::E 20 10 0
0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Q/Qc
Figure 5-39: Visual interpretation ofthe model for Mhlanga Estuary, whereQis flow and Qc critical flow.
Mouth state vs QIQc
9 10
8 6 7
5 Q/Qc 3 4
2 100
90
~ 80
~ 70
.s
60.1'!l
en 50
=
~ 4030::E 20 10
O+-~--IJ-.--':""---'-r--=---'---+----.---...- - - r_ _--,-_ _--,-_---j
o
Figure 5-40: Visual interpretation of the model for Mdloti Estuary, whereQ is flow and Qc critical flow.
Combining the model with the FDC for Mhlanga Estuary figure 5-41 was produced. By combining the data the percentage of time the estuary is likely to beineach regime, on average, can be estimated. These estimates are presented in table 5-8.
Flow Duration Curve for Mhlanga Estuary 100
10
0.1
---, I
Open
I"
~ ~
-
ODen/Closed~
-
Closed
-
'"'\0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
%Time Exceeded
- - Present state - - Natural state - Future state - Q::Qc-Q=7Clc
Figure 5-41: Plot of flow normalized by the critical flow against the percentage oftime exceeded. The three flow regimes are superimposed on the plot.
Table 5-8: Information extracted for Mhlanga Estuary from figure 5-41.
Present State Reference State Future State Regime
(%of time) (%of time) (%of time)
Closed 1 73 0
Open/Closed 94 23 95
Open 5 4 5
To make this information comparable with the RDM data it has been assumed that in the open/closed regime, half the time the estuary is closed and the other half the estuary is open.
The partly open state is difficult to determine, and in generally partly open states observed were during a transitional phase between open and closed. The data is tabulated in table5-9.
Table 5-9: Comparison of percentage closed for reference and present state obtained from various sources.
State Percentage closed
RDM Model Observed
Reference 82 85
-
Mhlanga
Present 49 48 55
The results obtained from the model for Mhlanga Estuary correlate well with the RDM results.
The values obtained for%closed from observations are expected to be higher than the averages from the ROM data and the Model due to low rainfall during the observation period. Perhaps a larger proportion of the open/closed regime should be allocated to the closed state to improve the model.
5.8. Summary of results
• The three flow regimes:
The flows were categorised in relation to the maximum seepage from the estuary.
Low flows I-Omax< 0 Estuary remains closed if the flows remain in this regime.
Intermediate flows I-Omax :::::0 Water level reaches breaching level, becoming unstable
High flows I-Omax>0 Very short residence time (T R), if flow continues longer than TR overtopping occurs.
• Open state:
Both estuaries experience tidal influence under open conditions. From the water level data it can be seen that Mhlanga Estuary is flood dominated as the water level rises faster than it subsides.
March '03 June '03 July '03 Tidal Range (open) - mm 1000-2000 850-1350 1350-1500 Water Level range - mm 740-1800 200-500 470-580
No. High tides leading to * 7 5
closure
Days open 4* 3.5 2.5
•
The water level momtors were first mtroduced Into the estuary dunng the open phaseInMarch 2003, therefore this data is not available from the data logger• Breaching:
Upon breaching the estuary has an average flow rate of 44m3/s over the fIrst five hours of the breaching event. An interesting feature noted in all three breaching events captured is the occurrence of breaching at low tide.
May June July
Tidal Situation Neap 4 days after 4 days after
neap neap
Tide Low Low Low
Water Level before breach 2955 2915 2810
Rainfall during closed period
50 21.8 0.4
(mm)
Hourl 285 516 998
Reduction in
Hour 2 1240 980 622
water level
Hour 3 255 219 131
during the
Hour 4 106 85 86
hours following
HourS 43 61 38
breaching
Hour 5-10 123 n/a n/a
• Closure:
Closure took 2.5 to 4 daysinthe three full breaches recorded; however this was under low flow conditions. If higher flows existed the mouth could be maintained in the open state for longer.
Volume of sediment removed from berm 1400m3 Sediment deposited in estuary mouth daily 400m3 Sediment available from longshore transport 1400m3/d
• Modelling:
A basic model can be used in the determination of percentage closed. This model incorporates the use of the critical flows and the timescales involved in mechanisms influencing the mouth state.