Total
76.7%
8.9%
2.6%
10.9%
0.9%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Figures should add up horizontally but may not, owing to rounding.
Population Growth
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) estimated that in 1996 the South African population was increasing at an average annual rate of 2%. This is the rate of natural increase, which takes into account only fertility and mortality. The population growth rate, which includes net migration figures, was still being
processed at the time of writing.10 [10 Financial Mail 23 October 1998]
Fertility Rate
No new information on the fertility rate was available at the time of writing.
Infant Mortality Rate
See chapter on Health and Welfare.
estimates, 1991–1998, Statistical Release PO302, 17 December 1998; Stats SA, Mid-year estimates 1999, Statistical Release P0302, 12 July 1999]
Mid-year estimates of the South African population by race: 1991–99a
African Coloured IndWhite OthTotalb
1991
27 400 100 3 254 000
960 300 4 238 000
346 500 36 198 900
1992
28 072 000 3 317 200
976 000 4 274 800
351 900 36 991 800
1993
28 759 800 3 381 400
991 900 4 311 900
357 200 37 802 200
1994
29 463 700 3 447 000 1 008 100 4 349 100 362 600 38 630 500
1995
30 184 400 3 513 600 1 024 400 4 386 600 368 200
39 477 100 1996c
30 921 700 3 581 600 1 040 900 4 424 400 373 700 40 342 300
1997
31 676 600 3 650 700 1 057 900 4 462 200 379 400 41 226 700
1998
32 449 200 3 721 000 1 074 900 4 500 400 385 100
42 130 500 1999
33 239 100 3 792 600 1 092 300 4 538 700 390 800 43 054 300
Increase: 1991–99 21.3%
16.6%
13.7%
6.2%
12.8%
18.9%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Natural increase based on the 1996 census and an estimation of fertility and mortality. Figures exclude net migration. Figures for 1991–95 have been adjusted using backward projections of the 1996 census results and
inferring the rate of increase from the totals (includes former ‘independent’ homelands). Figures have been rounded.
Figures may not add up, owing to rounding
c
Mid-year estimate, not census figure.
The following table shows the mid-year estimates of the total population by province from 1991 to 1999 and the increase over that period:12 [12 Ibid]
Mid
Eastern Cape Free State
Gauteng KwaZulu-Natal
1991
5 682 900 2 372 800 6 564 200 7 536 900
1992 5 795 600 2 420 300 6 698 900 7 696 400
1993 5 910 400 2 468 500 6 845 600 7 859 300
1994 6 027 400 2 517 800 6 995 500 8 025 600
1995 6 146 800 2 568 100 7 148 400 8 195 400
1996a 6 268 600 2 619 200 7 304 900 8 368 800
1997 6 392 800 2 671 500 7 464 600 8 545 700
1998 6 519 300 2 724 600 7 627 600 8 726 300
1999 6 658 700 2 714 700 7 807 300 8 924 600 Increase: 1991–99
17.2%
14.4%
18.9%
18.4%
Mid
Mpumalanga North West Northern Cape Northern Province
Western Cape 1991
2 453 600 2 995 700 779 000 4 236 500 3 583 700
1992 2 516 000 3 060 900 790 200 4 362 000 3 651 600
1993 2 579 600 3 127 300
801 800 4 488 500 3 720 900
1994 2 645 400 3 195 100 813 400 4 618 800 3 791 500
1995 2 712 700 3 264 400 825 000 4 752 800 3 863 400
1996a 2 781 500 3 335 000 836 900 4 890 700
3 936 600 1997 2 852 000 3 407 300 849 000 5 032 700 4 011 000
1998 2 924 400 3 481 200 861 400 5 178 700 4 086 900
1999 3 003 300 3 562 300 875 000 5 387 300
477 000 Increase: 1991–99
18.9%
12.3%
24.0%
16.4%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Mid-year estimate, not census figure.
The following chart shows the size of the population in each province, in 1991 and 1999:
The white paper on population development, published in March 1998, estimated that the South African population increased at a rate of 1.9% in 1995/96. The rate of increase dropped from about 2.2% in the period 1980–90. At a rate of 1.9% a year the population would increase to more than 80m in 30 years, the white paper stated.13 [13 The Citizen 11 July 1998]
Population Density: 1999
There were on average about 35 people per km2 in South Africa in 1999. Provincial population densities are shown in the following table:14 [14 Stats SA, Population Census 1996; Stats SA, Mid-year estimates, 1999, 12 July 1999]
Population density by province: 1999 Province
Area (km2) NumEastern Cape
169 580 39
Free State 129 480
21 Gauteng
17 010 459 KwaZulu-Natal
92 100 97 Mpumalanga
79 490 38 North West
116 320 31
Northern Cape 361 830
2
Northern Province 123 910
43 Western Cape
129 370 32 South Africa
1 219 090 35
Source: Statistics South Africa
The Impact of AIDS
As a result of AIDS, average life expectancy was likely to fall from 60 years to 40 by 2008, the minister for welfare and population development, Ms Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi, said in December 1998.15 [15 The
Star 1 December 1998]
The United States Census Bureau in 1998 revised its estimate of average life expectancy in South Africa from 65 to 56 because of AIDS. The population growth rate estimate was also revised from 1.9% to 1.4% a year. The crude death rate (number of deaths per 1 000 people) was 12.3, whereas without AIDS it would have been 7.8. The US Census Bureau said that without AIDS there would have been almost 1m more people in South Africa in 1998.16 [16 Business Day 2 November 1998]
(See also chapter on Health and Welfare.) Life Expectancy
Pre-census life expectancy estimates appear in the 1997/98 Survey on pp95–96.
No new information on life expectancy was available at the time of writing. Information on the impact of AIDS on life expectancy appears above.
Women had a longer life expectancy than men—fewer men (4%) than women (6%) were over the age of 65 in 1996, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said. This was according to the age breakdown provided
by the 1996 census.17 [17 Stats SA, Population Census 1996]
Age
In 1996, 34% of the population was under the age of 15. Some 5% was over the age of 65. More boys (35%) than girls (33%) were under 15, while fewer men (4%) than women (6%) were over the age of 65, Stats SA said. Some 36% of Africans were under the age of 15, compared with 21% of whites.18 [18 Ibid]
The table below shows the age profile of the population by race in 1996, as calculated by Stats SA.19 [19
Ibid]
Age profile by race: 1996 Age
African Coloured IndWhite Unspecified/other SouProportion of total
0– 4
3 653 003 385 709
86 083 269 219
49 606 4 443 621
10.9%
5–9
3 818 108 400 223
95 119 309 173
46 100 4 668 722
11.5%
10–14
3 746 680 403 521 105 383 355 279 43 236 4 654 100
11.5%
15–19
3 350 319 350 889
99 435
344 778 35 294 4 180 716
10.3%
20–24
3 153 083 344 373 103 123 349 102 32 672 3 982 353
9.8%
25–29
2 653 596 328 323
92 918 352 977
27 913 3 455 728
8.5%
2 317 500 306 808
86 998 337 709
25 186 3 074 201
7.6%
35–39
1 949 340 259 478
79 189 344 352
21 397 2 653 755
6.5%
40– 44
1 525 385 207 454
71 963 316 896
16 927 2 138 626
5.3%
45– 49
1 147 110 160 870
63 180 292 871
3 494 1 677 525
4.1%
50–54
835 099 119 711 50 198 253 753
10 134 1 268 895
3.1%
55–59
716 097 95 841 36 633 212 822
8 544 1 069 936
2.6%
60– 64
601 684 79 859 26 669 175 332
6 992 890 536
2.2%
65– 69
525 056 55 016 18 094 155 236
5 485
758 887 1.9%
70–74
312 205 33 919 10 975 121 357
3 707 482 163
1.2%
75–79
261 326 20 607
6 103 86 625
2 767 377 428
0.9%
80–84 108 410
11 097 2 644 55 248
1 504 178 902
0.4%
85+
89 475 8 348 1 618 36 530
1 313 137 284
0.3%
Unspecified
364 155 28 397
9 271 65 439 22 932
490 194 1.2%
Totala
31 127 631 3 600 446 1 045 596 4 434 697 375 204 40 583 573
100.0%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Figures may not add up, owing to rounding.
The following table shows a proportional age profile by race in 1996:
Proportional age profile by race: 1996 Age
African Coloured IndWhite Unspecified/other
South Africa 0–14
36.0%
33.0%
27.4%
21.1%
37.0%
33.9%
15–39 43.1%
44.2%
44.2%
39.0%
38.0%
42.7%
40–64 15.5%
18.4%
23.8%
28.2%
14.9%
17.4%
65+
4.2%
3.8%
3.8%
10.3%
3.9%
4.8%
Unspecified 1.2%
0.8%
0.9%
1.5%
6.1%
1.2%
Totala
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Figures may not add up, owing to rounding.
The chart below shows age profiles of the population by race in 1996.
The table below shows the age profile of the population by province in 1996.21 [21 Ibid]
Age profile by province: 1996 Province
0–14 years 15–34 years 35– 64 years
65+ years Unspecified
Totala Eastern Cape
2 478 156 2 059 250 1 348 397
365 422 51 299 6 302 525 Free State
820 276 980 664 684 763 118 643 29 158 2 633 504
Gauteng
1 840 152 2 935 614 2 169 332 303 297 100 028 7 348 423 KwaZulu-Natal
2 988 708 3 041 514
376 573 118 512 8 417 021 Mpumalanga
1 000 929 1 024 376 610 891 115 289 49 227 2 800 711 North West
1 136 463 1 231 027 804 357 155 180 27 798 3 354 825 Northern Cape
277 224 291 969
220 164 41 750
9 213 840 321 Northern Province
2 080 086 1 654 324 875 574 256 204 63 181 4 929 368 Western Cape
1 144 449 1 474 259 1 094 084 202 306
41 777 3 956 875 South Africaa
13 766 443
14 692 998 9 699 273 1 934 664 490 194 40 583 573
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Figures may not add up, owing to rounding.
The table below shows a proportional age profile of the population by proinc Proportional age profile by province: 1996a
Province
0–14 years 15–34 years 35– 64 years 65+ years Unspecified Eastern Cape
39.3%
32.7%
21.4%
5.8%
0.8%
Free State 31.1%
37.2%
26.0%
4.5%
1.1%
Gauteng 25.0%
39.9%
29.5%
4.1%
1.4%
KwaZulu-Natal 35.5%
36.1%
22.5%
4.5%
1.4%
35.7%
36.6%
21.8%
4.1%
1.8%
North West 33.9%
36.7%
24.0%
4.6%
0.8%
Northern Cape 33.0%
34.7%
26.2%
5.0%
1.1%
Northern Province 42.2%
33.6%
17.8%
5.2%
1.3%
Western Cape 28.9%
37.3%
27.7%
5.1%
1.1%
South Africa
33.9%
36.2%
23.9%
4.8%
1.2%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Figures should add up horizontally but may not, owing to
More than 30% of the population in seven of the nine provinces was under the age of 15, with the exceptions being Gauteng and the Western Cape.
The 1996 age profiles of men and women are shown in the following table:23 [23 Ibid]
Age profile by sex: 1996
——
Male
——
——
Female
— Age
Number
Proportion of total Number
Proportion of total 0–4
2 216 763 11.4%
2 226 858 10.6%
5–9
2 333 563 12.0%
2 335 160 11.1%
10–14
2 308 759 11.8%
2 345 341 11.1%
15–19
2 050 213 10.5%
2 130 503 10.1%
20–24
1 917 918 9.8%
2 064 435 9.8%
25–29 1 663 064 8.5%
8.5%
30–34
1 463 499 7.5%
1 610 702 7.6%
35–39
1 284 955 6.6%
1 368 800 6.5%
40–44
1 030 597 5.3%
1 108 028 5.3%
45–49
813 816 4.2%
863 710
4.1%
50–54
600 477 3.1%
668 418 3.2%
55–59
483 678 2.5%
586 258 2.8%
60–64
352 053 1.8%
538 483 2.6%
65–69
304 013 1.6%
454 874
2.2%
70–74
195 119 1.0%
287 044 1.4%
75–79
141 844 0.7%
235 583 1.1%
80–84
62 072 0.3%
116 831 0.6%
85+
43 230 0.2%
94 054 0.4%
Unspecified
255 253 1.3%
234 941 1.1%
Totala
19 520 887 100.0%
21 062 685 100.0%
Source: Statistics South Africa
a
Figures may not add u