Chapter 5: Demystifying the knowledge: Integrating IKS and modern science for local weather
5.6 Results
5.6.1 Socio-economic profiles of the respondents
The study findings revealed that there were more female (63%) respondents than males (37%) in Nkomazi Local Municipality. The age distribution of the participants’ ranged from 50 to 90
71 years. About 10% of the smallholder farmers had primary education, another 10% with matric and only 2% had post-secondary education with diplomas. Majority of the farmers relied on farming activities (63%) as their main source of income, with an average of R1500-R2000 (24%). Only 4% of the participants relied on full-time job for their income. Most farmers (78%) relied on their indigenous knowledge for their farm practices and decision-making at a local level. About 88% of the participants revealed that they were willing to use cell phones for receiving agricultural information. These findings highlight the willingness of these farmers to integrate indigenous knowledge with modern science or technology.
5.6.2 Local observations and impacts of climate change
In Nkomazi Local Municipality, the respondents noted that compared to the early 1970s, smallholder farmers have experienced several extreme events due to climate change (Figure 4). Most farmers experienced an increase of crop failure (51%) as the biggest influence of climate change. This impact has negatively affected the farmers' livelihoods as they mainly depend on agriculture for survival. Some farmers have highlighted human disease outbreaks (17%) as climate change impact, whilst 18% of the farmers seem not to know of any impact.
These smallholder farmers also stated to have observed livestock deaths (2%) to be the least severe climate-related risks (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Impacts of climate change on Nkomazi smallholder farmers 5.6.3 Nkomazi smallholder farmers’ observations of weather changes
More than 51% of Nkomazi smallholder farmers’ perceived very hot seasons as the major impact of climate change followed by prolonged droughts (34%), with a few having observed floods (8%) and 3% said to have not observed any changes in their area.
51
2
17
6
18
0 6
10 20 30 40 50 60
Crop failure Livestock
deaths Human disease outbreak
insecurityFood Do not know Other
Percentages (%)
Main impact of climate change at the local community
72 Figure 5: Farmer observations of climate change and its impact
5.6.4 Smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change and variability Adaptation to climate change and variability by applying indigenous knowledge was the main coping and adaptation strategy in Nkomazi (65%) (Table 8). A combination of changing dates of planting (34%) and mixed cropping (27%) was a prevalent strategy. Building water- harvesting schemes (20%) and crop and variety diversification (19%) were also carried out the smallholder farmers. Adaptation through the assistance of extension officers was the least common strategy used by Nkomazi smallholder farmers (16 %) (Table 8). However, it is important to note the importance of social beliefs in climate adaptation, as they are the basis of indigenous adaptation strategies to climate change and variability.
Table 8: Smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change and variability
Percent (%)
How did you adapt to those
changes Applied indigenous
knowledge 65
Assistance of extension
officers 16
Didn’t do anything 17
Other 2
Which indigenous adaptation measures have you used to deal with the changing climate
Crop and variety
diversification 19
Changing dates of planting 34 Built water harvest scheme 20
Mixed Cropping 27
Total 100
8
34
51
3 3 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Floods Prolonged
droughts Very hot
seasons Very wet
seasons Haven’t observed any
changes
Other specify
Percentages (%)
Major climate changes observed over the last 10 years
73 5.6.5 Indigenous climate forecast indicators in Nkomazi Local Municipality
Smallholder farmers in Nkomazi local Municipality predict and assess indigenous climate forecast through experience and locally observed climate indicators such as animals (31%), plants (26%), atmospheric (23%) as well as human ailments (20%). As indicated in Table 9, a most of the farmers (31%) acknowledged the reliability of animal indicators for their farm production, whilst only 20% used human ailments for rainfall prediction in that area.
Table 9: Indigenous climate forecast indicators in Nkomazi Local Municipality
Indicators Percent (%)
Animal indicators 31
Atmospheric indicators 23
Plant indicators 26
Human ailment 20
Total 100
5.6.6 Sources of climate change information that the farmers relied upon
While most of the respondents reported having observed the climatic changes on their own, farmers to farmers support were the most common source of information (31%) followed by radio (18%) (Table 10).These sources included the use of television (15%) with extension officers (10%) and internet (7%) at the lowest.
Table 10: Sources of climate change information that the farmers relied upon
Response Percent (%)
Radio 18
Internet 7
TV 15
Farmer to Farmer 31
Family member 10
Extension officer 10
Other 9
Total 100
5.6.7 Relationship between gender and IKS reliability
The results show a high number of female farmers (51%) who relied on IKS as compared to male farmers (27%) (Figure 6).
74 Figure 6: Relationship between gender and IKS reliability
Figure 7: Relationship between gender and IKS reliability
Figure 7 highlight 29% of female farmers to have agreed that the application IKS has made a difference in their crop production, whilst only 15% of males had agreed to it (Figure 7).
5.6.8 Forecast for 1993/2008 rainfall variability in Nkomazi Local Municipality
The average annual rainfall variation of Nkomazi Local Municipality ranges from 40 mm to 700 mm (Figure 8).
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Male Female
Frequences
Gender
Yes No
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Male Female
Percentages (%)
Gender
Agree Strongly agree Neutral Disagree
75 Figure 8: Average annual rainfall in Nkomazi Local Municipality
5.6.9 Forecast for 1993/2008 temperature variability in Nkomazi Local Municipality
Figure 9: Annual average maximum temperature for Nkomazi Local Municipality
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Annual Rainfall (mm)
Years
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Annual Maximum Temp (oc)
Years
76 Figure 10: Annual average minimum temperature for Nkomazi Local Municipality