Chapter 6: General conclusion and recommendations
6.2 Summary of the Study
The aim of this study was to look at the implications for Nigeria and South Africa following Nigeria’s overtaking of South Africa as Africa’s biggest economy. The study sought to explore the possible consequences of this change of status quo in Africa. It looked at how this would affect the newly crowned biggest economy and the recently dethroned second biggest economy in the African continent. This is particularly important in the sense that both Nigeria and South Africa are positioning themselves to claim a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). This study was also imperative to pursue because both these respective countries are important in the African continent. They are both well- endowed with natural resources that drive their economies. It was hoped that the study would assist both governments to note what they are doing wrong and what they are getting right.
Moreover it would also help these countries diversify their economies more, instead of relying on a single commodity for trading.
The main objectives of the study were:
• To explore the reasons presented on why Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as Africa’s largest economy.
• To establish who espouse this view and why;
• To analyse the economic and political standing of Nigeria and South Africa in Africa and internationally;
• To comprehend what this change in the state of affairs would mean for both Nigeria and South Africa.
In essence the study aimed to address the following questions:
Key question:
- What are the implications for the extrapolation that Nigeria has already overtaken South Africa as Africa’s economic giant?
P a g e | 116 Sub-questions:
- What are the strengths of South Africa and Nigeria which qualify them for the status as economic giants?
- What are the weaknesses of each of these countries?
- What does it mean for South Africa’s international standing now that Nigeria’s status as Africa’s biggest economy has become a reality?
- Importantly, how will this change affect BRICS?
The type of research that was undertaken is qualitative research with emphasis on secondary data as there were no interviews, or surveys conducted and it was mainly desk-top based.
This secondary data has been generated through books, journal articles, newspapers and internet sources. The secondary sources have provided bibliographic and contextual information that has complemented the primary source data used by other scholars on the theme of the study, thus illuminating the study even more. The methodology of research has included analyzing the data collected in order to try and answer the research questions that were enumerated in chapter one.
The data collection process was merely confined to libraries in and around the City of Durban such as the one at the University of KwaZulu-Natal’s Howard College as well as a municipality library at the Durban Central Business District (CBD). The kind of data collected from these libraries came from books and journals. Other journal articles were sourced from the internet. Some data that included statistics that depicted the trade figures were also downloaded from the internet or obtained from published reports. The researcher also made sure that he kept abreast of what was happening in the economies of both Nigeria and South Africa by ensuring that he read the business sections of the local leading newspapers. Since it is the newspaper reports that were repeatedly reporting about the imminent surpassing of South Africa by Nigeria as the leading economy in the continent which prompted this study, consequently they were also used as sources of data.
The type of method used to analyse the data is discourse analysis. Jorgensen and Phillips (2002:1) define discourse analysis as, “discourse as a particular way of talking about and understanding the world (or an aspect of the world).” This is exactly what this study has sought to do from the beginning, and that is trying to understand a particular aspect of the world. That world is that of the two countries, Nigeria and South Africa, who are amongst the great players in the world due to their rich endowment in natural resources such as minerals
P a g e | 117 and oil. Furthermore, according to Jorgensen and Phillips discourse analysis can be used as a framework for analysis of national identity (2002:2). This is what this study was all about and that is studying the identities of both Nigeria and South Africa in trying to find out the implications for both these countries now that Nigeria is portrayed as the biggest economy in the African continent.
The researcher opted for five themes from which he determined the results of the study. The first theme was about the historical background of Nigeria and South Africa. The study noted that these countries have similar histories which are both tragic and sad. What can be read from their history is that both these countries experienced economic prosperity once they returned to political stability. Under the theme, the impact of natural resources on the economic growth of Nigeria and South Africa, it was found that both these countries have improved their economic status as a result of their natural resources. However both have not done enough to improve the welfare of their citizens through this wealth. It was also discovered that Nigeria’s infrastructure development is lagging behind and South Africa has done a lot to improve its infrastructure since the discovery of minerals.
Furthermore the theme, the impact of political stability/instability on the country’s economic growth, it was discovered that although Nigeria is currently experiencing problems such as the reign of terror by Islamic militant group, Boko Haram, volatility in the Niger Delta and corruption, these challenges/problems have not had that much of an impact on the country’s economic growth. On the other hand, South Africa has been stable politically yet threats such as mining strikes, crime, corruption and load-shedding have made it hard for the country’s economy to grow at a desired rate of more than five percent per year. On the theme about the standing of both these countries in the continent, it would seem that South Africa has a slighter edge over Nigeria as it is a member of two influential groupings in the world, namely: the BRICS and G20. Nigeria is a member of the most influential organisation in the world when it comes to determining oil prices – the OPEC but so is Angola and Libya. South Africa is the only African member of the influential Group of 20 countries and BRICS. On these grounds, South Africa ranks high in Africa and internationally.
Under the theme, the rivalry between Nigeria and South Africa, it became evident that there is huge rivalry between the two countries and it stems from both countries harbouring ambitions to lead the continent. They also both want the non-existent seat in the UN Security Council. There have been many incidents that suggest that there is indeed rivalry between
P a g e | 118 the two continental giants. These countries have differed quite profoundly on policy matters in the African Union. Moreover, judging by the levels of poverty it can be argued that so far these countries have failed to ensure that the rest of the citizens enjoy the economic prosperity of their respective countries. The Niger Delta insurgency, corruption as well as Boko Haram are a result of neglect by the Nigerian government. The culture of strikes, corruption and fraud are proof that South Africa is not doing enough to take care of its population. Thus, both countries have positive factors to embrace and negative ones to try and eradicate in order to maintain their credibility as African giants.